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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 212346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 212346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /   0  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /   0  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /   0  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /   0  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT 24-30 HRS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING EXPECT FOR MVFR CIGS WITH BROKEN STRATUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z TO 15Z AT I-35 TAFS AND 11Z TO 15Z AT KDRT. LLJ MIXING TO
SURFACE DURING THE DAY AND DECOUPLING AT NIGHT WILL CREATE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 12-15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND 10 TO 15 KTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
105-110 DEG HEAT INDEX IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
GONZALES TO FLORESVILLE LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR 103-105 DEG HEAT INDEX EXPECTED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HILL COUNTRY...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGS FOR LOWS THIS MORNING...COMPOUNDING
HEAT EXHAUSTION POTENTIAL. MINOR TWEAKS UP IN ACTUAL TEMP FORECAST
ALSO MADE BASED ON HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY...STARTING TEMPS FOR
TODAY...AND RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA.

ALSO...AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE MIN RH VALUES DIP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WINDS OCCUR.

JR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  78  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  76  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  75 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  75  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78  98  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  79  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  75  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  77  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  102  79  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      100  80  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          102  78 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211416
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
105-110 DEG HEAT INDEX IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
GONZALES TO FLORESVILLE LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR 103-105 DEG HEAT INDEX EXPECTED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HILL COUNTRY...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGS FOR LOWS THIS MORNING...COMPOUNDING
HEAT EXHAUSTION POTENTIAL. MINOR TWEAKS UP IN ACTUAL TEMP FORECAST
ALSO MADE BASED ON HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY...STARTING TEMPS FOR
TODAY...AND RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA.

ALSO...AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE MIN RH VALUES DIP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WINDS OCCUR.

JR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  78  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  76  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  75 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  75  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78  98  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  79  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  75  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  77  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  102  79  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      100  80  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          102  78 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 210842
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 210842
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99








000
FXUS64 KEWX 210445 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. MODERATE
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 07Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 3K FEET THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. BREEZY SE WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z EXPECT S/SE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 210445 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. MODERATE
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 07Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 3K FEET THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. BREEZY SE WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z EXPECT S/SE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 210221
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 210221
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 202325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201751
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE REDEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS SE WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. 15/16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND MOVING INTO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA...WHICH WORKS WELL WITH LAST FEW HOURS OF HRRR RUNS ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO LOOK ON
TRACK...NO SHORT TERM CHANGES PLANNED. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99








000
FXUS64 KEWX 201751
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE REDEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS SE WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. 15/16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND MOVING INTO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA...WHICH WORKS WELL WITH LAST FEW HOURS OF HRRR RUNS ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO LOOK ON
TRACK...NO SHORT TERM CHANGES PLANNED. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201604
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. 15/16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND MOVING INTO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA...WHICH WORKS WELL WITH LAST FEW HOURS OF HRRR RUNS ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO LOOK ON
TRACK...NO SHORT TERM CHANGES PLANNED. /68-JGG/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201604
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. 15/16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SEABREEZE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING UP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND MOVING INTO ROUGHLY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
AREA...WHICH WORKS WELL WITH LAST FEW HOURS OF HRRR RUNS ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO LOOK ON
TRACK...NO SHORT TERM CHANGES PLANNED. /68-JGG/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201124
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  77  99  74  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  76 100  76 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  75  96  74  97 /   0  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  98  77  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  76  98  76  98 /   0  -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  99  75  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  99  77 100 /  20  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  99  78  99 /  10  10  -    0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  78 100 /  10  10  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201124
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 17Z BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN.
WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING
WE EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AROUND 08Z. DEL RIO MAY
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z TO 15Z FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGES. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THIS MORNING DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CALM SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  77  99  74  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  76 100  76 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  75  96  74  97 /   0  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  98  77  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  76  98  76  98 /   0  -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  99  75  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  99  77 100 /  20  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  99  78  99 /  10  10  -    0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  78 100 /  10  10  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200811
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  77  99  74  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  76 100  76 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  75  96  74  97 /   0  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  98  77  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  76  98  76  98 /   0  -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  99  75  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  99  77 100 /  20  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  99  78  99 /  10  10  -    0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  78 100 /  10  10  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200811
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY. THE UPPER TOUGH/SHEAR AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 48 HOURS
OF ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THEN DROP OFF
AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE PERSISTENT...IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SPARCE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO
BELOW 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  77  99  74  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  76 100  76 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  75  96  74  97 /   0  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  98  77  99 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  76  98  76  98 /   0  -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  99  75  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  99  77 100 /  20  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  77  99  78  99 /  10  10  -    0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  78 100 /  10  10  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99








000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OUT TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY ONLY BE PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH BKN/OVC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MAY HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THUS THE ONSET OF THE
MVFR CIGS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TIMING OF THE ONSET 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35
SITES AND RETAIN THE BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. AFTER
15Z WILL RETURN TO VFR THEN BACK TO MVFR CIGS 08Z-09Z AT THE 30
HOUR TAF SITES. SE WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS AT THE I-35
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH 08Z THEN
DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 7-10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS. AFTER 23Z I-35 SITE WILL HAVE SE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH 08Z THEN DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT NEAR A MID LEVEL MCV WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG
I-35 NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION...EXCEPT OUT
WEST NEAR THE MCV DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED. DO
NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 06Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. FROM 08Z-09Z
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE I-35
SITES. KDRT LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPS FROM 12Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OUT TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY ONLY BE PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH BKN/OVC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MAY HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THUS THE ONSET OF THE
MVFR CIGS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TIMING OF THE ONSET 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35
SITES AND RETAIN THE BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. AFTER
15Z WILL RETURN TO VFR THEN BACK TO MVFR CIGS 08Z-09Z AT THE 30
HOUR TAF SITES. SE WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS AT THE I-35
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH 08Z THEN
DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. KDRT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 7-10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS. AFTER 23Z I-35 SITE WILL HAVE SE WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
THROUGH 08Z THEN DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT NEAR A MID LEVEL MCV WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG
I-35 NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION...EXCEPT OUT
WEST NEAR THE MCV DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED. DO
NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 06Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. FROM 08Z-09Z
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE I-35
SITES. KDRT LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPS FROM 12Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200249
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT NEAR A MID LEVEL MCV WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG
I-35 NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION...EXCEPT OUT
WEST NEAR THE MCV DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED. DO
NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 06Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. FROM 08Z-09Z
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE I-35
SITES. KDRT LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPS FROM 12Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200249
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT NEAR A MID LEVEL MCV WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG
I-35 NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL REMOVE THUNDER MENTION...EXCEPT OUT
WEST NEAR THE MCV DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED. DO
NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 06Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. FROM 08Z-09Z
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE I-35
SITES. KDRT LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPS FROM 12Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192328 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED. DO
NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 06Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. FROM 08Z-09Z
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE I-35
SITES. KDRT LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPS FROM 12Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192328 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL MCV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED. DO
NOT EXPECT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. AFTER 06Z MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS 7-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. FROM 08Z-09Z
SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND CREATE MVFR CEILINGS AT THE I-35
SITES. KDRT LIKELY TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPS FROM 12Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE MID LEVEL MCV HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SHEAR NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY END ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THROUGH SUNSET
A STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH...AND BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOL WILL MOVE FARTHER WEST INTO MEXICO...WEST AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SEA-BREEZE...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
FRIDAY...AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  77 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  99  76 100  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  75  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  98  78  98  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  98  76  99  75 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  78 100  78 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  79  99  78 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  99  78 100  77 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF
THE I-35 TAFS...BUT KEPT VCSH MENTIONED AT KSAT/KSSF AS SOME SHOWERS
WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH 23Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
RETURN OF THE NORMAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS AT THE
I-35 SITES FROM 08-15Z. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF CIGS AT
KDRT...BUT LEFT THE CLOUDS AS SCT012 FOR NOW AS THAT IS A MORE
LIKELY OUTCOME. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR...THEN BREAKOUT
TO SCT040 AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...MCV LOCATED NEAR THE BANDERA/KERR COUNTY LINE WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAST HOUR OF
RADAR TRENDS) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BASED ON THIS THINKING AND RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WARRANTED A DECREASE IN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

ALSO...A QUICK NOTE THAT DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERESTIMATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATED 200-300 PERCENT OF GROUND TRUTH
OBSERVATIONS ON BOTH EWX AND DFX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  77 100  77 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76  99  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  75 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  76  97  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  99  76 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  76  98  74 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  98  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  78  99  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  99  78 100  76 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF
THE I-35 TAFS...BUT KEPT VCSH MENTIONED AT KSAT/KSSF AS SOME SHOWERS
WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF
STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH 23Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
RETURN OF THE NORMAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS AT THE
I-35 SITES FROM 08-15Z. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF CIGS AT
KDRT...BUT LEFT THE CLOUDS AS SCT012 FOR NOW AS THAT IS A MORE
LIKELY OUTCOME. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH MVFR...THEN BREAKOUT
TO SCT040 AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...MCV LOCATED NEAR THE BANDERA/KERR COUNTY LINE WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAST HOUR OF
RADAR TRENDS) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BASED ON THIS THINKING AND RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WARRANTED A DECREASE IN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

ALSO...A QUICK NOTE THAT DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERESTIMATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATED 200-300 PERCENT OF GROUND TRUTH
OBSERVATIONS ON BOTH EWX AND DFX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  77 100  77 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76  99  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  75 100  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  76  97  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  99  76 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  77  98  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  76  98  74 /  10  -   10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  98  78  99  78 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  98  78  99  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  99  78 100  76 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191542 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...MCV LOCATED NEAR THE BANDERA/KERR COUNTY LINE WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAST HOUR OF
RADAR TRENDS) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BASED ON THIS THINKING AND RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WARRANTED A DECREASE IN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

ALSO...A QUICK NOTE THAT DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERESTIMATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATED 200-300 PERCENT OF GROUND TRUTH
OBSERVATIONS ON BOTH EWX AND DFX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  76  98  77 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  74  99  75 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  74  95  76  97 /  40  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           94  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  97  77  98 /  20  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  74  97  76  98 /  80  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 191542 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...MCV LOCATED NEAR THE BANDERA/KERR COUNTY LINE WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAST HOUR OF
RADAR TRENDS) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BASED ON THIS THINKING AND RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WARRANTED A DECREASE IN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

ALSO...A QUICK NOTE THAT DUAL POL STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERESTIMATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. RADAR ESTIMATED 200-300 PERCENT OF GROUND TRUTH
OBSERVATIONS ON BOTH EWX AND DFX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  76  98  77 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  74  99  75 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  74  95  76  97 /  40  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           94  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  97  77  98 /  20  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  74  97  76  98 /  80  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









000
FXUS64 KEWX 191519
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...MCV LOCATED NEAR THE BANDERA/KERR COUNTY LINE WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAST HOUR OF
RADAR TRENDS) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BASED ON THIS THINKING AND RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WARRANTED A DECREASE IN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  76  98  77 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  74  99  75 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  74  95  76  97 /  40  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           94  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  97  77  98 /  20  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  74  97  76  98 /  80  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191519
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...MCV LOCATED NEAR THE BANDERA/KERR COUNTY LINE WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAST HOUR OF
RADAR TRENDS) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH
PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BASED ON THIS THINKING AND RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WARRANTED A DECREASE IN THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  76  98  77 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  74  99  75 100 /  20  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  74  95  76  97 /  40  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           94  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  97  77  98 /  20  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  74  97  76  98 /  80  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191131
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  76  98  77 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74  99  75 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  76  97  77  98 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  97  76  98 /  30  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191131
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN
THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES AND DEL RIO. THIS COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS THAT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. IF IT CONTINUES ITS
CURRENT MOTION...RAIN COULD BEGIN AROUND 1245Z AT KSAT AND THEN
SHORTLY AFTER FOR KSSF. NOT FULLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SUNRISE SO WILL HANDLE IT
NOW WITH VCSH. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE WHICH MAY
INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THERE ARE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IF THE COMPLEX DOES MAKE IT TO THE
TERMINALS...WILL HAVE TO AMEND FOR -TSRA. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 1245Z AND 1315Z FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES.

THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT THE MVFR FROM DEVELOPING AND WILL
KEEP VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  76  98  77 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74  99  75 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  76  97  77  98 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  97  76  98 /  30  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99








000
FXUS64 KEWX 191130 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  76  98  77 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74  99  75 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  76  97  77  98 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  97  76  98 /  30  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191130 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE AFFECTED AREAS COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO ONE INCH. UPDATED ZONES PRODUCT
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  76  98  77 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74  99  75 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  76  97  77  98 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  97  76  98 /  30  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  98  78  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 190838
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  76  98  77 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74  99  75 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  76  97  77  98 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  97  76  98 /  20  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  98  78  99 /  10  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99









000
FXUS64 KEWX 190838
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES AND NEAR
100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY
AND HOT WEATHER DAYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DRY WEATHER PACKAGE IS IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S IN MOST PLACES
AND NEAR 100 TO 101 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND THEN SITS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  76  98  77 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74  99  75 100 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  76  97  77  99 /  20  10  -   10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  76  97  77  98 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74  97  76  98 /  20  10  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  98  76  99 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  78  98  78  99 /  10  10  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  76  99  78 100 /  10  10  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99








000
FXUS64 KEWX 190448 AAD
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITH
CONVECTION AROUND THE REGION AND CIRRUS...NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WOULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. PUT IN A
SCATTERED DECK FOR KAUS AND RETAINED THE MVFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND
KSSF. JUST PUSHED THE START BACK A FEW HOURS. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE S/SE NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS IF THEY CROSS THE
AIRFIELD. IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION WILL SEE CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION UNCERTAIN WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. AFTER 16Z
WILL SEE S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THROUGH 23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE BOOSTED POPS AND CONTINUED THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ESCARPMENT AREAS AS TRAINING IS
DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION. THE 00Z NAM AND SOME MORE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS TREND. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
MCV DRIFTING SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SEABREEZE MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA. PWS OF 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAY HAVE TO BOOST POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS SAME AREA. SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS DO NOT. RE-ESTABLISHED
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN IN THAT
AREA AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE FROM THE
EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND REMAINS INTO NEXT WEEK.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AFTER 07Z THE I-35
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP CREATING MVFR
CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KDRT FROM 13Z-16 FOR
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 15Z-16Z RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES ON
CONVECTION HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS IN OR NEAR THE CONVECTION. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
AND MAKE UPDATES AS NECESSARY. GUSTY S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 6-9 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS OF ALL RESOLUTIONS WERE OF LITTLE HELP IN THE DEPICTION OF
RAIN LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND TODAY. THE BEST PREDICTOR HAS
BEEN SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY SHOWING THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
PATTERNS FROM NRN MEXICO EXTENDING NE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.
DESPITE THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS...THE NAM QPF LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-35 AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD AGAIN RESULT ISOLATED 2 INCH
RAINS...WITH THE STRONG HEATING ALSO CAPABLE OF PROMOTING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. ANOTHER FEATURE NOTED IN THE NAM MODEL IS A DECENT
DEPICTION OF THE TUTT LOW CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH FROM THE SWRN
GULF TOWARD S TX. THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE INFLUX IS NOT
LIKELY TO HELP TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EXTRA RAIN
CHANCE MENTION WITH 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE ON
TUESDAY. THE ADDED MOISTURE HAS CURBED SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
BY A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND COULD DO SO AGAIN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD FORM A
FEW DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF WHICH HAS HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS SHOWN IN
MODEL CONSENSUS TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THE CENTER DRIFT NW
TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 100  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  75  95  74 /  40  20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  97  77  97  76 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  98  74  97  75 /  50  20  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 100  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  99  78  97  77 /  10  20  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  99  79  97  77 /  50  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 100  77  98  76 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 190448 AAD
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WITH
CONVECTION AROUND THE REGION AND CIRRUS...NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WOULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS. PUT IN A
SCATTERED DECK FOR KAUS AND RETAINED THE MVFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND
KSSF. JUST PUSHED THE START BACK A FEW HOURS. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-16Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE S/SE NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS IF THEY CROSS THE
AIRFIELD. IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION WILL SEE CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING SOME
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION UNCERTAIN WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. AFTER 16Z
WILL SEE S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THROUGH 23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE BOOSTED POPS AND CONTINUED THEM INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ESCARPMENT AREAS AS TRAINING IS
DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO
ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION. THE 00Z NAM AND SOME MORE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS TREND. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
MCV DRIFTING SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SEABREEZE MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA. PWS OF 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAY HAVE TO BOOST POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS SAME AREA. SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS DO NOT. RE-ESTABLISHED
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN IN THAT
AREA AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE FROM THE
EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND REMAINS INTO NEXT WEEK.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AFTER 07Z THE I-35
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP CREATING MVFR
CEILINGS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KDRT FROM 13Z-16 FOR
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 15Z-16Z RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES ON
CONVECTION HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS IN OR NEAR THE CONVECTION. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
AND MAKE UPDATES AS NECESSARY. GUSTY S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET THEN REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 6-9 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS OF ALL RESOLUTIONS WERE OF LITTLE HELP IN THE DEPICTION OF
RAIN LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND TODAY. THE BEST PREDICTOR HAS
BEEN SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY SHOWING THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
PATTERNS FROM NRN MEXICO EXTENDING NE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.
DESPITE THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS...THE NAM QPF LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-35 AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD AGAIN RESULT ISOLATED 2 INCH
RAINS...WITH THE STRONG HEATING ALSO CAPABLE OF PROMOTING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. ANOTHER FEATURE NOTED IN THE NAM MODEL IS A DECENT
DEPICTION OF THE TUTT LOW CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH FROM THE SWRN
GULF TOWARD S TX. THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE INFLUX IS NOT
LIKELY TO HELP TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EXTRA RAIN
CHANCE MENTION WITH 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE ON
TUESDAY. THE ADDED MOISTURE HAS CURBED SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
BY A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND COULD DO SO AGAIN TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD FORM A
FEW DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF WHICH HAS HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS SHOWN IN
MODEL CONSENSUS TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THE CENTER DRIFT NW
TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  99  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 100  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  75  95  74 /  40  20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  97  77  97  76 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  98  74  97  75 /  50  20  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 100  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  99  78  97  77 /  10  20  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  99  79  97  77 /  50  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 100  77  98  76 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







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