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000
FXUS64 KEWX 022134
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUDY SKIES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
INTACT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 02/20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK
AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. WITH AN INCREASED MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...WE/LL MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS COOL
AND MOIST AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOG CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TOMORROW GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
WARM AS WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. WE/LL
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE/LL MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CONCERNS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIX GIVEN THE SHALLOW...COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF A DEL
RIO...SAN ANTONIO...LA GRANGE LINE. AGAIN...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
SAN ANTONIO. BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL
LIQUID.

COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WE/LL MAINTAIN
A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  64  56  57  30 /  30  20  30  60  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  65  56  58  30 /  30  20  20  60  70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  65  57  59  32 /  30  20  20  40  70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  64  53  53  27 /  30  20  30  70  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  70  54  65  32 /  10  10  20  40  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  63  55  57  28 /  30  20  30  70  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  65  55  61  33 /  20  20  20  40  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  56  59  31 /  30  20  20  50  70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  70  60  62  33 /  30  20  30  60  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  64  57  61  32 /  30  20  20  40  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  65  57  61  33 /  30  20  20  30  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 022134
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
CLOUDY SKIES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
INTACT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 02/20Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THICK
AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. WITH AN INCREASED MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...WE/LL MAINTAIN A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST
AREAS TONIGHT. FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS COOL
AND MOIST AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOG CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TOMORROW GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO
WARM AS WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. WE/LL
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE/LL MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CONCERNS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET MIX GIVEN THE SHALLOW...COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF A DEL
RIO...SAN ANTONIO...LA GRANGE LINE. AGAIN...MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
SAN ANTONIO. BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING BACK TO ALL
LIQUID.

COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. WE/LL MAINTAIN
A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  64  56  57  30 /  30  20  30  60  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  65  56  58  30 /  30  20  20  60  70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  65  57  59  32 /  30  20  20  40  70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  64  53  53  27 /  30  20  30  70  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  70  54  65  32 /  10  10  20  40  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  63  55  57  28 /  30  20  30  70  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  65  55  61  33 /  20  20  20  40  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  56  59  31 /  30  20  20  50  70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  70  60  62  33 /  30  20  30  60  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  64  57  61  32 /  30  20  20  40  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  65  57  61  33 /  30  20  20  30  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00









000
FXUS64 KEWX 021726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS RUNNING 300-900 FEET MIDDAY. AUS/SAT/SSF
WILL HOLD AROUND 900 FEET THIS AFTEROON WITH VISIBILITY CURRENTLY
VFR AND EXPECTED TO HOLD VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRIEFLY BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR...BUT NOT SHOWN IN THE AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS.
FARTHER WEST...CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT WITH VFR VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
BELOW 500 FEET 00Z-06Z AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VISIBILTIES DOWN TO 1
MILE. HI RES MODELS SHOW DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SAT EARLY TUE
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALSO WILL OCCUR AS WARMER/MOIST
AIR WITH 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OFF SURFACE OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 021726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS RUNNING 300-900 FEET MIDDAY. AUS/SAT/SSF
WILL HOLD AROUND 900 FEET THIS AFTEROON WITH VISIBILITY CURRENTLY
VFR AND EXPECTED TO HOLD VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRIEFLY BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR...BUT NOT SHOWN IN THE AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS.
FARTHER WEST...CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT WITH VFR VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
BELOW 500 FEET 00Z-06Z AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VISIBILTIES DOWN TO 1
MILE. HI RES MODELS SHOW DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SAT EARLY TUE
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALSO WILL OCCUR AS WARMER/MOIST
AIR WITH 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OFF SURFACE OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 021726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS RUNNING 300-900 FEET MIDDAY. AUS/SAT/SSF
WILL HOLD AROUND 900 FEET THIS AFTEROON WITH VISIBILITY CURRENTLY
VFR AND EXPECTED TO HOLD VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRIEFLY BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR...BUT NOT SHOWN IN THE AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS.
FARTHER WEST...CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT WITH VFR VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
BELOW 500 FEET 00Z-06Z AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VISIBILTIES DOWN TO 1
MILE. HI RES MODELS SHOW DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SAT EARLY TUE
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALSO WILL OCCUR AS WARMER/MOIST
AIR WITH 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OFF SURFACE OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 021726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS RUNNING 300-900 FEET MIDDAY. AUS/SAT/SSF
WILL HOLD AROUND 900 FEET THIS AFTEROON WITH VISIBILITY CURRENTLY
VFR AND EXPECTED TO HOLD VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRIEFLY BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR...BUT NOT SHOWN IN THE AUS/SAT/SSF TAFS.
FARTHER WEST...CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
DRT WITH VFR VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING
BELOW 500 FEET 00Z-06Z AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VISIBILTIES DOWN TO 1
MILE. HI RES MODELS SHOW DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE IN THE EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING SAT EARLY TUE
MORNING. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALSO WILL OCCUR AS WARMER/MOIST
AIR WITH 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET OFF SURFACE OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 021534 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT -DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH CIGS REMAINING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
1000 FT AND BETWEEN 3-5SM VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. KDRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND COME CLOSE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL AROUND 7-12 KT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTH
EAST AND BECOME EAST AND LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CALMING
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP FURTHER TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...10







000
FXUS64 KEWX 021534 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT -DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH CIGS REMAINING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
1000 FT AND BETWEEN 3-5SM VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. KDRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND COME CLOSE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL AROUND 7-12 KT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTH
EAST AND BECOME EAST AND LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CALMING
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP FURTHER TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  52  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  53  54 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  46  72  55  56 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  50  53 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           54  49  74  54  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  51  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  54  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  54  55 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  57  59 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  47  72  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  47  72  57  58 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...10








000
FXUS64 KEWX 021140 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT -DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH CIGS REMAINING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
1000 FT AND BETWEEN 3-5SM VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. KDRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND COME CLOSE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL AROUND 7-12 KT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTH
EAST AND BECOME EAST AND LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CALMING
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP FURTHER TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  53  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  55  56 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  46  72  57  57 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  48  50 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  74  56  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  50  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  56  57 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  59  60 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  48  72  58  59 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  47  72  59  59 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 021140 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT -DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH CIGS REMAINING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
1000 FT AND BETWEEN 3-5SM VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. KDRT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND COME CLOSE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL AROUND 7-12 KT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTH
EAST AND BECOME EAST AND LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CALMING
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP FURTHER TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  53  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  55  56 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  46  72  57  57 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  48  50 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  74  56  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  50  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  56  57 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  59  60 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  48  72  58  59 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  47  72  59  59 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 020958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  53  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  55  56 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  46  72  57  57 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  48  50 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  74  56  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  50  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  56  57 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  59  60 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  48  72  58  59 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  47  72  59  59 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 020958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  53  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  55  56 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  46  72  57  57 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  48  50 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  74  56  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  50  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  56  57 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  59  60 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  48  72  58  59 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  47  72  59  59 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 020958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  53  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  55  56 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  46  72  57  57 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  48  50 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  74  56  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  50  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  56  57 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  59  60 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  48  72  58  59 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  47  72  59  59 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17









000
FXUS64 KEWX 020958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SKY.
SOME MAY GET LUCKY TO SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WITH REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...BIG CHANGES ARE COMING BY
MID WEEK AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER
WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE FROM A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
ONE INCH SPOTS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS
AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NOW...HERE IS THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN CONTINUES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO LAKEWAY TO
TAYLOR LINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTIES ON HOW DRY OR WET THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FOR THIS PERIOD AND ON WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE AMOUNTS.
THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MONITOR OUR WEB PAGE FOR UPDATES.

IT WILL DRY QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. WILL BE COLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IMPROVING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  43  72  53  55 /  20  20  30  30  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  42  70  55  56 /  20  20  30  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  46  72  57  57 /  20  20  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  41  71  48  50 /  20  20  20  30  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  74  56  56 /  10  10  -   20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  42  72  50  52 /  20  20  30  30  70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  47  71  56  58 /  20  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  45  71  56  57 /  20  20  20  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  48  72  59  60 /  20  20  30  20  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  48  72  58  59 /  20  20  20  20  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  47  72  59  59 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17









000
FXUS64 KEWX 020501
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG TONIGHT BUT IFR
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIFR CIGS TOWARDS MORNING.
MID MORNING RETURN TO IFR IS EXPECTED BUT AS WINDS DECREASE
TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE EVENING LEAVING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD BACK IN LIFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  39  49  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  39  50  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  41  52  48  72 /  30  30  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  36  47  44  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  57  51  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  37  49  45  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  44  55  51  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  50  47  71 /  30  30  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  43  54  51  72 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  43  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  44  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 020501
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1101 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD STAY UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG TONIGHT BUT IFR
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIFR CIGS TOWARDS MORNING.
MID MORNING RETURN TO IFR IS EXPECTED BUT AS WINDS DECREASE
TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE EVENING LEAVING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD BACK IN LIFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  39  49  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  39  50  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  41  52  48  72 /  30  30  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  36  47  44  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  57  51  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  37  49  45  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  44  55  51  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  50  47  71 /  30  30  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  43  54  51  72 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  43  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  44  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 020229
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
829 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  39  49  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  39  50  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  41  52  48  72 /  30  30  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  36  47  44  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  57  51  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  37  49  45  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  44  55  51  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  50  47  71 /  30  30  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  43  54  51  72 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  43  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  44  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 020229
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
829 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  39  49  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  39  50  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  41  52  48  72 /  30  30  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  36  47  44  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  57  51  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  37  49  45  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  44  55  51  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  50  47  71 /  30  30  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  43  54  51  72 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  43  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  44  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 020229
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
829 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  39  49  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  39  50  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  41  52  48  72 /  30  30  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  36  47  44  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  57  51  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  37  49  45  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  44  55  51  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  50  47  71 /  30  30  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  43  54  51  72 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  43  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  44  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 020229
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
829 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  39  49  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  39  50  46  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  41  52  48  72 /  30  30  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  36  47  44  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  49  57  51  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  37  49  45  71 /  30  40  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  44  55  51  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  50  47  71 /  30  30  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   47  43  54  51  72 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  43  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  44  54  50  72 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 012339
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012339
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 012339
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
CONTINUED POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AREAS OF BR CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH MVFR AND IFR LEVELS FLUCTUATING. EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE MORNING HOURS. BUT CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 600 FT AS IT IS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012052 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CORRECTED TO CLARIFY TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30









000
FXUS64 KEWX 012035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 012035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOWEST 150MB NEARLY SATURATED. SURFACE
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...BUT ABOVE THIS THE FLOW
WAS FROM THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM A LOW NEAR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND. DURING
THIS PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
A RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MODELS DEVELOP A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY AND THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
AND THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A MIX FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL BRING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SOME CLOUDY...COOL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              39  49  46  71  54 /  30  20  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  50  46  71  55 /  30  20  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  52  48  72  57 /  30  20  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  47  44  71  50 /  30  20  20  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  51  75  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  49  45  71  52 /  30  20  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  55  51  72  57 /  20  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  50  47  71  56 /  30  20  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  54  51  72  59 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           44  54  50  72  58 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 200-600 FEET AND
VISIBILITY VARIED GENERALLY 2 TO 6 MILES WITH SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS UNDER 1 MILE. -RA/-DZ ONGOING NEAR AUS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ABOVE IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS (DRT
MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR). TONIGHT...PATCHY -DZ WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 03Z...WITH POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITY RE-DEVELOPING AT AUS/SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 200-600 FEET AND
VISIBILITY VARIED GENERALLY 2 TO 6 MILES WITH SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS UNDER 1 MILE. -RA/-DZ ONGOING NEAR AUS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ABOVE IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS (DRT
MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR). TONIGHT...PATCHY -DZ WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 03Z...WITH POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITY RE-DEVELOPING AT AUS/SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 011748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 200-600 FEET AND
VISIBILITY VARIED GENERALLY 2 TO 6 MILES WITH SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS UNDER 1 MILE. -RA/-DZ ONGOING NEAR AUS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ABOVE IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS (DRT
MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR). TONIGHT...PATCHY -DZ WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 03Z...WITH POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITY RE-DEVELOPING AT AUS/SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 200-600 FEET AND
VISIBILITY VARIED GENERALLY 2 TO 6 MILES WITH SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS UNDER 1 MILE. -RA/-DZ ONGOING NEAR AUS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ABOVE IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS (DRT
MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR). TONIGHT...PATCHY -DZ WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 03Z...WITH POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITY RE-DEVELOPING AT AUS/SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 011607
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
LIFR/IFR CIGS COMBINED WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND
-DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH -DZ/VCSH LIKELY.
KDRT MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
DRY. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TOWARDS LIFR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH NEAR 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011607
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWED A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800MB. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT
ALL OF THE ASOS/AWOS SITES IN OUR CWA. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG...BUT MOST VISIBILITY IS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE MILES.
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...I THINK IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS TODAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS 2-7 DEGREES.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
LIFR/IFR CIGS COMBINED WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND
-DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH -DZ/VCSH LIKELY.
KDRT MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
DRY. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TOWARDS LIFR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH NEAR 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOERNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           51  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 011148 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
LIFR/IFR CIGS COMBINED WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND
-DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH -DZ/VCSH LIKELY.
KDRT MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
DRY. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TOWARDS LIFR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH NEAR 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011148 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
LIFR/IFR CIGS COMBINED WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AND
-DZ/-RA. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CIGS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH -DZ/VCSH LIKELY.
KDRT MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
DRY. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BACK TOWARDS LIFR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTH NEAR 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010955
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17









000
FXUS64 KEWX 010955
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 010955
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17









000
FXUS64 KEWX 010955
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
355 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALSO...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SITUATION AS AREAS OF FOG BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY DAWN IN CASE THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 10 MPH AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THAT WAY...LIMITING CIGS AND VBSYS TO LOWER TO THE GROUND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY...LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE I-35 AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
A COOL MONDAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES OF
RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MEETS AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON TOP OF
THIS SCENARIO...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND EVEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS BRING
THE ARCTIC FRONT AROUND 12Z-15Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS
DELAYED BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AFTER GETTING SOME GOOD RAIN-RATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY(POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES)...ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS
THE AREA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE
EVENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IN A FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A PANDALE TO BOURNE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NOTE...JUST HAVE IN BACK OF YOUR
MIND THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW...AND THIS CAN POSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS NEW WEATHER
SCENARIO AND CHALLENGING WEATHER PACKAGE IN DAYS TO COME.

WILL KEEP THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOL BUT RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  41  50  50  73 /  30  40  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  50  41  51  51  75 /  30  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  44  53  53  75 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            47  39  47  47  72 /  30  40  40  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  51  58  54  79 /  10  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  40  48  48  72 /  30  50  40  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  47  56  56  77 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        51  43  52  52  74 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  46  54  54  74 /  40  40  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  46  55  55  75 /  20  20  30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  47  55  55  77 /  20  20  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 010457
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...STILL
THINKING IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR CIGS AND FG ARE LIKELY FOR ALL
TERMINALS GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN
THE MID MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
RAN ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
TRENDS. THERE ARE A STILL A FEW SPOTS STILL AT 32 DEGREES THIS
EVENING...BUT CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT NO ROAD PROBLEMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  53  45  57  54 /  60  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  35  53  44  58  54 /  70  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     36  57  48  61  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  50  41  53  53 /  40  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  62  50  66  55 /  20  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  51  42  55  54 /  50  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  60  50  64  53 /  30  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        35  55  47  59  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  59  51  62  61 /  70  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  58  50  62  56 /  40  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           38  59  51  63  56 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010457
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...STILL
THINKING IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR CIGS AND FG ARE LIKELY FOR ALL
TERMINALS GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN
THE MID MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
RAN ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
TRENDS. THERE ARE A STILL A FEW SPOTS STILL AT 32 DEGREES THIS
EVENING...BUT CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT NO ROAD PROBLEMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  53  45  57  54 /  60  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  35  53  44  58  54 /  70  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     36  57  48  61  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  50  41  53  53 /  40  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  62  50  66  55 /  20  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  51  42  55  54 /  50  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  60  50  64  53 /  30  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        35  55  47  59  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  59  51  62  61 /  70  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  58  50  62  56 /  40  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           38  59  51  63  56 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010457
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...STILL
THINKING IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR CIGS AND FG ARE LIKELY FOR ALL
TERMINALS GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN
THE MID MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
RAN ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
TRENDS. THERE ARE A STILL A FEW SPOTS STILL AT 32 DEGREES THIS
EVENING...BUT CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT NO ROAD PROBLEMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  53  45  57  54 /  60  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  35  53  44  58  54 /  70  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     36  57  48  61  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  50  41  53  53 /  40  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  62  50  66  55 /  20  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  51  42  55  54 /  50  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  60  50  64  53 /  30  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        35  55  47  59  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  59  51  62  61 /  70  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  58  50  62  56 /  40  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           38  59  51  63  56 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010457
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...STILL
THINKING IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR CIGS AND FG ARE LIKELY FOR ALL
TERMINALS GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN
THE MID MORNING BUT OTHERWISE VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
RAN ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
TRENDS. THERE ARE A STILL A FEW SPOTS STILL AT 32 DEGREES THIS
EVENING...BUT CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT NO ROAD PROBLEMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  53  45  57  54 /  60  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  35  53  44  58  54 /  70  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     36  57  48  61  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  50  41  53  53 /  40  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  62  50  66  55 /  20  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  51  42  55  54 /  50  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  60  50  64  53 /  30  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        35  55  47  59  54 /  60  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  59  51  62  61 /  70  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  58  50  62  56 /  40  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           38  59  51  63  56 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
RAN ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
TRENDS. THERE ARE A STILL A FEW SPOTS STILL AT 32 DEGREES THIS
EVENING...BUT CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT NO ROAD PROBLEMS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  35  54  45  57 /  50  60  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  35  55  44  58 /  50  70  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  36  58  48  61 /  50  60  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  32  52  41  53 /  40  40  20  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  43  64  50  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  34  53  42  55 /  50  50  20  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  40  61  50  64 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  35  56  47  59 /  50  60  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  42  60  51  62 /  50  70  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  37  60  50  62 /  50  40  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  38  61  51  63 /  50  40  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 010336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
RAN ANOTHER UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON INCREASING RADAR
TRENDS. THERE ARE A STILL A FEW SPOTS STILL AT 32 DEGREES THIS
EVENING...BUT CALLS TO LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT NO ROAD PROBLEMS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  35  54  45  57 /  50  60  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  35  55  44  58 /  50  70  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  36  58  48  61 /  50  60  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  32  52  41  53 /  40  40  20  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  43  64  50  66 /  20  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  34  53  42  55 /  50  50  20  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  40  61  50  64 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  35  56  47  59 /  50  60  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  42  60  51  62 /  50  70  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  37  60  50  62 /  50  40  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  38  61  51  63 /  50  40  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  54  45  57  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  55  44  58  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  58  48  61  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  53  53 /  40  30  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  64  50  66  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  53  42  55  54 /  50  30  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  30  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  56  47  59  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  60  51  62  61 /  30  40  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  60  50  62  56 /  20  30  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  61  51  63  56 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 010003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  54  45  57  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  55  44  58  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  58  48  61  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  53  53 /  40  30  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  64  50  66  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  53  42  55  54 /  50  30  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  30  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  56  47  59  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  60  51  62  61 /  30  40  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  60  50  62  56 /  20  30  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  61  51  63  56 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 010003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  54  45  57  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  55  44  58  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  58  48  61  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  53  53 /  40  30  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  64  50  66  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  53  42  55  54 /  50  30  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  30  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  56  47  59  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  60  51  62  61 /  30  40  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  60  50  62  56 /  20  30  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  61  51  63  56 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  54  45  57  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  55  44  58  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  58  48  61  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  53  53 /  40  30  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  64  50  66  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  53  42  55  54 /  50  30  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  30  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  56  47  59  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  60  51  62  61 /  30  40  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  60  50  62  56 /  20  30  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  61  51  63  56 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  37  54  45  57 /  50  40  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  38  55  44  58 /  50  40  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  39  58  48  61 /  50  30  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            33  32  52  41  53 /  40  20  20  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  39  64  50  66 /  20  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  36  53  42  55 /  50  30  20  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  41  61  50  64 /  40  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  39  56  47  59 /  50  40  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  44  60  51  62 /  50  60  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  40  60  50  62 /  50  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  41  61  51  63 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  37  54  45  57 /  50  40  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  38  55  44  58 /  50  40  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  39  58  48  61 /  50  30  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            33  32  52  41  53 /  40  20  20  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  39  64  50  66 /  20  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  36  53  42  55 /  50  30  20  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  41  61  50  64 /  40  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  39  56  47  59 /  50  40  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  44  60  51  62 /  50  60  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  40  60  50  62 /  50  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  41  61  51  63 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  37  54  45  57 /  50  40  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  38  55  44  58 /  50  40  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  39  58  48  61 /  50  30  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            33  32  52  41  53 /  40  20  20  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  39  64  50  66 /  20  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  36  53  42  55 /  50  30  20  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  41  61  50  64 /  40  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  39  56  47  59 /  50  40  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  44  60  51  62 /  50  60  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  40  60  50  62 /  50  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  41  61  51  63 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  37  54  45  57 /  50  40  20  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  38  55  44  58 /  50  40  20  40  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  39  58  48  61 /  50  30  20  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            33  32  52  41  53 /  40  20  20  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  39  64  50  66 /  20  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  36  53  42  55 /  50  30  20  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  41  61  50  64 /  40  20  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  39  56  47  59 /  50  40  20  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  44  60  51  62 /  50  60  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  40  60  50  62 /  50  20  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  41  61  51  63 /  50  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  54  45  57  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  55  44  58  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  58  48  61  54 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  52  53 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  64  50  66  55 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  53  42  55  54 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  56  47  59  54 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  60  51  62  61 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  60  50  62  56 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  61  51  63  56 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  54  45  57  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  55  44  58  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  58  48  61  54 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  52  53 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  64  50  66  55 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  53  42  55  54 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  56  47  59  54 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  60  51  62  61 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  60  50  62  56 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  61  51  63  56 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  54  45  57  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  55  44  58  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  58  48  61  54 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  52  53 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  64  50  66  55 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  53  42  55  54 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  56  47  59  54 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  60  51  62  61 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  60  50  62  56 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  61  51  63  56 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              37  54  45  57  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  38  55  44  58  54 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  58  48  61  54 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  52  53 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  64  50  66  55 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  53  42  55  54 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  56  47  59  54 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  60  51  62  61 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       40  60  50  62  56 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  61  51  63  56 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
203 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE. NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION IS NOW ABOVE FREEZING SO ANY MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID. THE AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  64  52  67  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  64  52  69  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  66  55  71  60 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            35  61  45  59  55 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  69  55  72  62 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  46  63  57 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  68  56  73  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        41  65  54  69  60 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  66  57  71  63 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  67  56  71  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  68  58  74  62 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
203 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE. NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION IS NOW ABOVE FREEZING SO ANY MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID. THE AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  64  52  67  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  64  52  69  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  66  55  71  60 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            35  61  45  59  55 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  69  55  72  62 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  46  63  57 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  68  56  73  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        41  65  54  69  60 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  66  57  71  63 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  67  56  71  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  68  58  74  62 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
203 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE. NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION IS NOW ABOVE FREEZING SO ANY MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID. THE AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  64  52  67  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  64  52  69  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  66  55  71  60 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            35  61  45  59  55 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  69  55  72  62 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  46  63  57 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  68  56  73  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        41  65  54  69  60 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  66  57  71  63 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  67  56  71  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  68  58  74  62 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
203 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE. NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION IS NOW ABOVE FREEZING SO ANY MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID. THE AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              38  64  52  67  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  64  52  69  59 /  40  20  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     41  66  55  71  60 /  30  20  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            35  61  45  59  55 /  20  20  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           42  69  55  72  62 /  10  10  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  46  63  57 /  30  20  50  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  68  56  73  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        41  65  54  69  60 /  40  20  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   46  66  57  71  63 /  60  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  67  56  71  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  68  58  74  62 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  38  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  39  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  41  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  35  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  42  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        39  36  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  42  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  41  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       44  42  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  43  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...
LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  38  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  39  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  41  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  35  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  42  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        39  36  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  42  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  41  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       44  42  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  43  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...
LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  38  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  39  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  41  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  35  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  42  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        39  36  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  42  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  41  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       44  42  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  43  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...
LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING SOME ROADS ARE STILL IN BAD
SHAPE. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING AND ADVISORY UNTIL
2 PM. EVERYWHERE SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  38  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  39  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  41  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  35  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  42  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        39  36  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  42  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  41  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  46  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       44  42  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  43  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...
LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...FOGARTY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OVC CEILINGS MIDDAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 300-1500
FEET...LOWEST WHERE -RA/DZ IS OCCURRING. STILL COULD BE SOME -FZRA
AND FZDZ THAT OCCURS NEAR AND WEST OF A GTU-RYW-ERV LINE THROUGH
20Z. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL LOWER AREAWIDE TO AROUND 200-500 AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUN. VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO
LOWER LATER THIS EVENING TO IFR-MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR SUN
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281610
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281610
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281610
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281610
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1010 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. HAVE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FROM HAYS TO BEXAR TO VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM KERR TO
WILLIAMSON. THIS REQUIRED AN EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR KERR...KENDALL,,,AND BLANCO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON. THE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CONTINUE FOR GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON. SEE BELOW FOR WHICH COUNTIES ARE IN WHICH
PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING AND
WE EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
737 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER AREA OF DRIZZLE IS MOVING INTO TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND
THIS DRIZZLE WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH FROZEN SURFACES. WITH
REPORTS OF NUMEROUS ICY OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ONLY MAKE THINGS WORSE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ANY ICE ON
ROADWAYS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281137 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281137 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

TREACHEROUS FLYING CONDITIONS ONGOING REGION WIDE WITH WORST
CONDITIONS AT KAUS WITH -FZDZ INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING THROUGH
14-15Z COMBINED WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
ONGOING WITH -RA/DZ THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE ICING ON
APPROACH AND DEPARTURE WITH A SATURATED SURFACE TO 1000 FT LAYER
THAT IS BELOW FREEZING WHERE LIQUID WATER EXISTS. THIS WATER COULD
ACCRETE TO EXPOSED METALLIC SURFACES. ICING RISK WILL END AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH 16-18Z AS ENTIRE PROFILE WARMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL TO IFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 280957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 280957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AFFECTS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME OUT FROM
THE FREEZING MARK...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TIL NOON TODAY. THE EXTENSION INCLUDES GILLESPIE...LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH MINOR IMPACTS MAINLY OVER ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. BY NOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S
WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND
EVEN LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT GO AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOL AIRMASS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AND ONCE AGAIN...THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER BUT SHORT PERIOD OF WINTER MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL EXIST. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND SUNSHINE RETURNS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              45  42  64  52  67 /  50  40  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  43  64  52  69 /  50  40  40  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  43  66  55  71 /  50  40  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  39  61  45  59 /  40  40  30  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  44  69  55  72 /  20  20  -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  40  61  46  63 /  50  40  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  44  68  56  73 /  40  30  20  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  43  65  54  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  48  66  57  71 /  50  50  40  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  44  67  56  71 /  50  40  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  45  68  58  74 /  50  40  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...COMAL...EDWARDS...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BURNET...GILLESPIE...LLANO...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280525
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES FROM
THE SOUTH. AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WILL SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE THIS SHOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IS KAUS. KAUS HAS JUMPED BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES
AND WILL TEMPO -FZDZ FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IT SHOULD NOT
ACCOUNT TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE BOUNCING TEMPERATURE. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS THE IFR CIGS. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY LOW MVFR IFR AND
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO BE IFR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
I-35 TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
KDRT MAY GO BRIEFLY MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO LIFR CATEGORIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  31  46  43  66 /  50  60  60  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  32  47  43  66 /  40  50  60  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     37  32  47  45  68 /  50  60  60  40  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            31  27  41  40  62 /  50  60  60  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  35  49  45  70 /  20  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  29  44  41  63 /  50  60  60  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  33  47  45  69 /  50  60  60  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  32  47  44  66 /  50  60  60  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  37  54  49  71 /  30  30  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  33  47  45  68 /  50  60  60  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           37  34  47  46  69 /  50  60  60  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 280525
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES FROM
THE SOUTH. AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WILL SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE THIS SHOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IS KAUS. KAUS HAS JUMPED BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES
AND WILL TEMPO -FZDZ FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IT SHOULD NOT
ACCOUNT TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE BOUNCING TEMPERATURE. THE
NEXT CONCERN IS THE IFR CIGS. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY LOW MVFR IFR AND
EXPECTING ALL SITES TO BE IFR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
I-35 TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
KDRT MAY GO BRIEFLY MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO LIFR CATEGORIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  31  46  43  66 /  50  60  60  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  32  47  43  66 /  40  50  60  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     37  32  47  45  68 /  50  60  60  40  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            31  27  41  40  62 /  50  60  60  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  35  49  45  70 /  20  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  29  44  41  63 /  50  60  60  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  33  47  45  69 /  50  60  60  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  32  47  44  66 /  50  60  60  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  37  54  49  71 /  30  30  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       37  33  47  45  68 /  50  60  60  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           37  34  47  46  69 /  50  60  60  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              31  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  32  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     32  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            27  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           35  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        32  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           34  47  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 280350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              31  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  32  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     32  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            27  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           35  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        32  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           34  47  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              31  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  32  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     32  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            27  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           35  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        32  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           34  47  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /UPDATED TO INCLUDE UVALDE AND MEDINA COUNTY IN WSW/
WHILE LATE AFTERNOON PROJECTIONS INDICATED INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO REACH NEAR THE WET BULB OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES...EARLY EVENING
TRENDS SWITCHED TO SHOW CONTINUED DRYING AT THE SURFACE FROM
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. MODEL RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPICTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A TRACE TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MEAN OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN ESCARPMENT...AND THUS THE WSW PRODUCT IS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MEDINA AND UVALDE COUNTIES. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINL OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
RESISTANCE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE NEXT ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST OF I-35...BUT THE FREEZE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF COMAL...HAYS...TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              31  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  32  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     32  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            27  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           35  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             33  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        32  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           34  47  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 272356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              33  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     34  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            28  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   38  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  48  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00









000
FXUS64 KEWX 272356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              33  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     34  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            28  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   38  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  48  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 272356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              33  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     34  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            28  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   38  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  48  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 272356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE... /REVISED TEMPERATURE TRENDS...CONTINUE WW ADVY/
LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BETTER ALIGN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AS SOME OF THE FORECASTS MIN TEMPS
ARE OCCURRING EARLY. FREEZING WX GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG I-35 TO MATCH WHERE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOWS A
POTENTIAL TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER TO THE SW...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
APPROACHING ZERO...AND THE SOMEWHAT STEADY RATE OF DRIZZLE FALLING
INTO THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE FREEZING LATER TONIGHT. GRIDDED DATA SHOWS NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A RETREATING FREEZING PRECIPITATION LINE
TO REFLECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH EVERY
SITE BECOMING IFR LATER THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE
AIRPORTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL NOT MENTION
FZDZ AT THIS TIME. MODELS REALLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION BY
TOMORROW EVENING AND WILL MENTION LIFR CIGS AND 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FORMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AREAS
WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY TO HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MINOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MAINLY ON LESS TRAVELED
ROADS...ELEVATED STRUCTURES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO
AUSTIN LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IN TURN WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS RAIN BRINGS
DOWN THE WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE COLD DOME IS STUBBORN TO ERODE.
ALTHOUGH...SOME EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD DOME FINALLY LOOKS TO ERODE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
NAM/GEM MAINTAIN IT WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTH AND THEN BRINGS
IT BACK LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...FINALLY MOVING IT BACK
NORTH LATE MONDAY. HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE NAM/GEM VERIFY...THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A BIT
COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUE THE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALL MODELS FINALLY LIFT
THE COLD AIR NORTH BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST FORCES
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE REACHED AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              33  46  43  66  52 /  50  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  33  47  43  66  52 /  40  50  40  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     34  47  45  68  55 /  50  50  40  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            28  41  40  62  49 /  50  50  40  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  49  45  70  55 /  20  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        29  44  41  63  49 /  50  50  40  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  47  45  69  57 /  50  50  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        33  47  44  66  54 /  50  50  40  40  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   38  54  49  71  59 /  30  50  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       33  47  45  68  57 /  50  50  40  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           36  48  46  69  58 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...COMAL...EDWARDS...
GILLESPIE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LLANO...REAL...TRAVIS...VAL
VERDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00









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