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000
FXUS64 KEWX 171821 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH MODEL 850MB BASED LI/S...
WE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY MVFR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT GIVE WAY TO A
NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY AT THE I-35 SITES AND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT DRT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BUT MODELS SUGGEST CIGS RISE AND
THE FOG DISSIPATES BY 17Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
TODAY AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TREADWAY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              53  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 171821 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH MODEL 850MB BASED LI/S...
WE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY MVFR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT GIVE WAY TO A
NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY AT THE I-35 SITES AND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT DRT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BUT MODELS SUGGEST CIGS RISE AND
THE FOG DISSIPATES BY 17Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
TODAY AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TREADWAY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              53  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 171731
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY MVFR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT GIVE WAY TO A
NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY AT THE I-35 SITES AND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT DRT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BUT MODELS SUGGEST CIGS RISE AND
THE FOG DISSIPATES BY 17Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
TODAY AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              53  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 171731
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS ARE
CURRENTLY MVFR...AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT GIVE WAY TO A
NIGHT OF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY AT THE I-35 SITES AND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT DRT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BUT MODELS SUGGEST CIGS RISE AND
THE FOG DISSIPATES BY 17Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
TODAY AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              53  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 171203
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA AND MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. SHRA
WILL INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR
DUE TO -RADZ BR. SOME SPOTS COULD DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR. HOWEVER...
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW GREATER SATURATION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR 1K FEET. ELY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE I-35 TAF SITES BECOME NLY TONIGHT.
SELY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KDRT BECOME NLY 5 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15








000
FXUS64 KEWX 171203
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA AND MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. SHRA
WILL INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS SPREADING TO ALL AREAS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR
DUE TO -RADZ BR. SOME SPOTS COULD DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR. HOWEVER...
HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW GREATER SATURATION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR 1K FEET. ELY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE I-35 TAF SITES BECOME NLY TONIGHT.
SELY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT KDRT BECOME NLY 5 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15







000
FXUS64 KEWX 171016
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15






000
FXUS64 KEWX 171016
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
416 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS. LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR TODAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE VALLEY NE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WEAK S/SW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LIFT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE AND LIMIT HEATING FOR THE DAY AND KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S
WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR HWY 281 AREAS AND EAST AS
CONTINUED WEAK UPGLIDE OCCURS WHILE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN PER SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
IN THE EAST BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE LOW.

BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION
AND ACT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THUS SUPPORTING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HEALTHY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERTOP OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PRESENCE OF
1.2-1.5" PWATS (+1-1.5 SD) WILL COMBINE TO LIKELY PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 TOWARDS THE NE UP THE I-35
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT FARTHER EAST AREAS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE RAIN. HAVE TIMED RAIN TO EXIT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH EC SLOWEST OF THE MODELS. MAIN MODEL
SUITE (GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEM/NAM/GFS ENSEMBLES)IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN EC BUT EC HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT AND HAVE WEIGHTED FORECAST
75/25 SUITE/EC TIMING-WISE FRIDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RAIN AND IMPACT FREE BUT SOME
LONG RANGE DISCREPANCIES DO EXIST BETWEEN GFS/EC. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. REGION WILL BE UNDER THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS BUT MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AS NOT TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND JUST CLOUDS. CONTINUED NW H5 FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PHASING OF ENERGY IF SOUTHERN
JET-STREAM BRANCH IS ABLE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND HELP DRAW UP
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT
TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
MONDAY-TUESDAY DRY AND MONITOR TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT COULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  51  66  54  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  51  66  55  57 /  40  50  30  80  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  55  66  57  59 /  40  40  30  80  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  47  65  51  55 /  60  40  20  80  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  49  66  55  60 /  30  20  10  70  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  48  65  52  55 /  60  50  20  80  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  53  69  58  61 /  40  30  30  80  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  53  66  56  58 /  40  40  30  80  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  56  67  59  60 /  30  50  40  80  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  55  68  58  60 /  40  40  30  80  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  56  67  61  61 /  40  40  30  80  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170521
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1121 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS
SLOWLY DROPPING. BY 12Z AT DRT AND 15Z/16Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WE COULD SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WITH
HIGH END MVFR CIGS. RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THEN TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DRIZZLE AND FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT.
IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
IT WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC FLOW
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH 50 MILES OR SO OF THE RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE AND ONLY PROVIDE A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME
CAPE AT MID-LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. DRIER
AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS...AND WET GROUND FROM
THE JUST ENDED RAIN SHOULD SET UP RADIATIONAL FOG FROM A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A BREAK FROM POPS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NEUTRAL ISENTROPIC MOTION. THAT WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
JET FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...VERTICAL STRETCHING AS THE
CIRCULATION COMES OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...AND FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OFF THE GULF ALL POINT TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN THE
COLD SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM CONVEYOR
OVERHEAD. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH POPS AND MODERATE QPF ON FRIDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE WASHED OUT OR HAMPERED BY BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS RAIN...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH...AND STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE RAIN WILL SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A LOWER AMPLITUDE ROLLER COASTER OF
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH ALTERNATING COOL CONTINENTAL...OR
MILD GULF...AIR. THE ONLY PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THOSE ARE NOT HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED
RETURN GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  52  50  66  54 /  10  50  50  20  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  53  50  66  54 /  10  50  50  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  53  68  56 /  10  50  30  20  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  49  46  65  50 /  10  60  30  20  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  48  66  53 /  20  20  10  10  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        42  50  48  65  51 /  10  60  50  20  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  55  51  68  55 /  10  50  20  20  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  51  66  55 /  10  50  30  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  58  55  68  56 /  10  50  50  30  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  55  53  68  57 /  10  50  30  20  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  57  54  68  57 /  10  50  30  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 162328
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER
TOWARDS SUNRISE. BY MORNING AT DRT AND BY LUNCH TIME AT THE I-35
TERMINALS WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS
DROPPING TO HIGH END MVFR. RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY WITH VISBY DROPPING TO IFR
LEVELS BY 00Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY AND
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
IT WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC FLOW
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH 50 MILES OR SO OF THE RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE AND ONLY PROVIDE A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME
CAPE AT MID-LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. DRIER
AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS...AND WET GROUND FROM
THE JUST ENDED RAIN SHOULD SET UP RADIATIONAL FOG FROM A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A BREAK FROM POPS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NEUTRAL ISENTROPIC MOTION. THAT WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
JET FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...VERTICAL STRETCHING AS THE
CIRCULATION COMES OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...AND FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OFF THE GULF ALL POINT TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN THE
COLD SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM CONVEYOR
OVERHEAD. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH POPS AND MODERATE QPF ON FRIDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE WASHED OUT OR HAMPERED BY BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS RAIN...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH...AND STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE RAIN WILL SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A LOWER AMPLITUDE ROLLER COASTER OF
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH ALTERNATING COOL CONTINENTAL...OR
MILD GULF...AIR. THE ONLY PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THOSE ARE NOT HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED
RETURN GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  53  50  66 /   0  10  50  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  46  56  53  68 /   0  10  50  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  49  46  65 /   0  10  60  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  48  66 /   0  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  42  50  48  65 /   0  10  60  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  55  51  68 /   0  10  50  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  45  54  51  66 /   0  10  50  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  58  55  68 /   0  10  50  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  55  53  68 /   0  10  50  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  49  57  54  68 /   0  10  50  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 162135
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
IT WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC FLOW
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH 50 MILES OR SO OF THE RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE AND ONLY PROVIDE A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME
CAPE AT MID-LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. DRIER
AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS...AND WET GROUND FROM
THE JUST ENDED RAIN SHOULD SET UP RADIATIONAL FOG FROM A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A BREAK FROM POPS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NEUTRAL ISENTROPIC MOTION. THAT WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
JET FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...VERTICAL STRETCHING AS THE
CIRCULATION COMES OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...AND FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OFF THE GULF ALL POINT TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN THE
COLD SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM CONVEYOR
OVERHEAD. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH POPS AND MODERATE QPF ON FRIDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE WASHED OUT OR HAMPERED BY BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS RAIN...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH...AND STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE RAIN WILL SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A LOWER AMPLITUDE ROLLER COASTER OF
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH ALTERNATING COOL CONTINENTAL...OR
MILD GULF...AIR. THE ONLY PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THOSE ARE NOT HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED
RETURN GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  52  50  66  54 /  10  50  50  20  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  53  50  66  54 /  10  50  50  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  53  68  56 /  10  50  30  20  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  49  46  65  50 /  10  60  30  20  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  48  66  53 /  20  20  10  10  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        42  50  48  65  51 /  10  60  50  20  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  55  51  68  55 /  10  50  20  20  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  51  66  55 /  10  50  30  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  58  55  68  56 /  10  50  50  30  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  55  53  68  57 /  10  50  30  20  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  57  54  68  57 /  10  50  30  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 162135
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
IT WILL SPREAD TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET. ISENTROPIC FLOW
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH 50 MILES OR SO OF THE RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE AND ONLY PROVIDE A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME
CAPE AT MID-LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS
TOGETHER...WE EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT QPF OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH. DRIER
AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS...AND WET GROUND FROM
THE JUST ENDED RAIN SHOULD SET UP RADIATIONAL FOG FROM A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A BREAK FROM POPS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NEUTRAL ISENTROPIC MOTION. THAT WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER
JET FORCING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...VERTICAL STRETCHING AS THE
CIRCULATION COMES OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...AND FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OFF THE GULF ALL POINT TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN THE
COLD SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM CONVEYOR
OVERHEAD. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH POPS AND MODERATE QPF ON FRIDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE WASHED OUT OR HAMPERED BY BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS RAIN...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH...AND STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE RAIN WILL SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A LOWER AMPLITUDE ROLLER COASTER OF
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVES WITH ALTERNATING COOL CONTINENTAL...OR
MILD GULF...AIR. THE ONLY PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THOSE ARE NOT HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED
RETURN GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/S ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  52  50  66  54 /  10  50  50  20  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  53  50  66  54 /  10  50  50  20  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  53  68  56 /  10  50  30  20  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  49  46  65  50 /  10  60  30  20  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  57  48  66  53 /  20  20  10  10  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        42  50  48  65  51 /  10  60  50  20  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  55  51  68  55 /  10  50  20  20  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  51  66  55 /  10  50  30  20  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  58  55  68  56 /  10  50  50  30  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  55  53  68  57 /  10  50  30  20  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  57  54  68  57 /  10  50  30  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 161755
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 5K-7K AGL AT AREA
TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND BASES WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT
RAIN BEGINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE DID RE-TREND THE HOURLY VALUES
THROUGH 00Z TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CLOUDCOVER. WE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ON THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO REFLECT THE CLOUDCOVER
IN PLACE AND REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
SOME 4-5KFT CIGS ARE SLOWLY ENCROACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING BUT NOT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL AS OF YET.
BELIEVE THESE SHOULD FALL VICTIM TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD START
TO SEE CIGS RETURN BY MID DAY TO KDRT AND IN THE EVENING FOR THE
I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD STAY AT THE 4-5KFT
LEVEL AND THUS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR KAUS AND KSAT...INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 161755
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 5K-7K AGL AT AREA
TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND BASES WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT
RAIN BEGINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE DID RE-TREND THE HOURLY VALUES
THROUGH 00Z TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CLOUDCOVER. WE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ON THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO REFLECT THE CLOUDCOVER
IN PLACE AND REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
SOME 4-5KFT CIGS ARE SLOWLY ENCROACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING BUT NOT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL AS OF YET.
BELIEVE THESE SHOULD FALL VICTIM TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD START
TO SEE CIGS RETURN BY MID DAY TO KDRT AND IN THE EVENING FOR THE
I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD STAY AT THE 4-5KFT
LEVEL AND THUS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR KAUS AND KSAT...INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30








000
FXUS64 KEWX 161623
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE DID RE-TREND THE HOURLY VALUES
THROUGH 00Z TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CLOUDCOVER. WE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ON THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO REFLECT THE CLOUDCOVER
IN PLACE AND REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
SOME 4-5KFT CIGS ARE SLOWLY ENCROACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING BUT NOT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL AS OF YET.
BELIEVE THESE SHOULD FALL VICTIM TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD START
TO SEE CIGS RETURN BY MID DAY TO KDRT AND IN THE EVENING FOR THE
I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD STAY AT THE 4-5KFT
LEVEL AND THUS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR KAUS AND KSAT...INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 161623
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY. NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE DID RE-TREND THE HOURLY VALUES
THROUGH 00Z TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CLOUDCOVER. WE LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ON THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO REFLECT THE CLOUDCOVER
IN PLACE AND REDUCED DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
SOME 4-5KFT CIGS ARE SLOWLY ENCROACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING BUT NOT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL AS OF YET.
BELIEVE THESE SHOULD FALL VICTIM TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD START
TO SEE CIGS RETURN BY MID DAY TO KDRT AND IN THE EVENING FOR THE
I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD STAY AT THE 4-5KFT
LEVEL AND THUS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR KAUS AND KSAT...INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 161136
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
SOME 4-5KFT CIGS ARE SLOWLY ENCROACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING BUT NOT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL AS OF YET.
BELIEVE THESE SHOULD FALL VICTIM TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD START
TO SEE CIGS RETURN BY MID DAY TO KDRT AND IN THE EVENING FOR THE
I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD STAY AT THE 4-5KFT
LEVEL AND THUS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR KAUS AND KSAT...INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 161136
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.
SOME 4-5KFT CIGS ARE SLOWLY ENCROACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AREA
THIS MORNING BUT NOT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY TERMINAL AS OF YET.
BELIEVE THESE SHOULD FALL VICTIM TO DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD START
TO SEE CIGS RETURN BY MID DAY TO KDRT AND IN THE EVENING FOR THE
I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THESE SHOULD STAY AT THE 4-5KFT
LEVEL AND THUS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR KAUS AND KSAT...INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION FOR SHOWERS BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH LIGHT
RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 160944
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29








000
FXUS64 KEWX 160944
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED NEARLY
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
WIND HAS BECOME CALM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OBSERVATIONS
SITES LOCATED IN A VALLEY HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
CURRENTLY....FREDERICKSBURG IS THE COLD SPOT WITH A 3 AM
TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES. THE KEWX VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS 1-3 KFT OFF THE
SURFACE. AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS TO OCCUR TODAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER SPEEDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/60S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850 RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE 800 TO 700 MB COLUMN.

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  44  50  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  43  50  49  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  47  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  42  48  46  62 /   0  -   60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  57  47  64 /   0  -   30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  41  50  47  62 /   0  -   60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  52  50  66 /   0  10  50  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  44  51  50  64 /   0  -   60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  44  55  54  67 /   0  -   40  60  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  48  52  52  66 /   0  -   60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  48  53  53  66 /   0  -   60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 160644
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP ON THE ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING
AS WINDS ARE CALM OR LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
ALREADY SEEING UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FORECAST LOWS
WERE ALREADY NEARLY REACHED IN THOSE SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WAS
HANDLING THE TEMPS THE BEST SO POPULATED WITH THAT AS A STARTING
POINT AND TWEAKED BASED OFF CURRENT OBS AND BLENDED. HOPING THIS
WILL CLEAN THINGS UP FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AT DRT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS FROM
10-12 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING VFR OVC CIGS BY 01Z ON THE 17TH.

TREADAWY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  45  52  49  62 /   0  -   60  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  44  54  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  47  56  52  65 /   0  10  60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  42  50  46  60 /   0  -   60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  58  48  65 /   0  10  20  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  42  51  47  60 /   0  -   60  50  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  55  51  66 /   0  10  50  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  45  54  50  64 /   0  10  60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  45  58  54  67 /   0  -   40  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  48  55  53  66 /   0  10  60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  49  57  54  67 /   0  10  60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 160644
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP ON THE ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING
AS WINDS ARE CALM OR LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
ALREADY SEEING UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FORECAST LOWS
WERE ALREADY NEARLY REACHED IN THOSE SPOTS. ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WAS
HANDLING THE TEMPS THE BEST SO POPULATED WITH THAT AS A STARTING
POINT AND TWEAKED BASED OFF CURRENT OBS AND BLENDED. HOPING THIS
WILL CLEAN THINGS UP FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AT DRT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS FROM
10-12 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING VFR OVC CIGS BY 01Z ON THE 17TH.

TREADAWY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  45  52  49  62 /   0  -   60  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  44  54  49  63 /   0  -   60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  47  56  52  65 /   0  10  60  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  42  50  46  60 /   0  -   60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  49  58  48  65 /   0  10  20  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  42  51  47  60 /   0  -   60  50  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  55  51  66 /   0  10  50  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  45  54  50  64 /   0  10  60  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  45  58  54  67 /   0  -   40  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  48  55  53  66 /   0  10  60  40  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  49  57  54  67 /   0  10  60  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 160526
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AT DRT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS FROM
10-12 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING VFR OVC CIGS BY 01Z ON THE 17TH.

TREADAWY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  43  62  45  52 /   0   0   0  -   60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  38  61  44  54 /   0   0   0  -   60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  42  64  47  56 /   0   0   0  10  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  40  59  42  50 /   0   0   0  -   60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  43  62  49  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  37  59  42  51 /   0   0   0  -   60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  38  64  47  55 /   0   0   0  10  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  41  62  45  54 /   0   0   0  10  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  44  62  45  58 /   0   0   0  -   40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  44  64  48  55 /   0   0   0  10  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  43  64  49  57 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KEWX 160526
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AT DRT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS FROM
10-12 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW WITH MOST MODELS
SHOWING VFR OVC CIGS BY 01Z ON THE 17TH.

TREADAWY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  43  62  45  52 /   0   0   0  -   60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  38  61  44  54 /   0   0   0  -   60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  42  64  47  56 /   0   0   0  10  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  40  59  42  50 /   0   0   0  -   60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  43  62  49  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  37  59  42  51 /   0   0   0  -   60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  38  64  47  55 /   0   0   0  10  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  41  62  45  54 /   0   0   0  10  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  44  62  45  58 /   0   0   0  -   40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  44  64  48  55 /   0   0   0  10  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  43  64  49  57 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 152321
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 4-7 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY ALONG I-35 AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT DRT AROUND 10 KNOTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO FILTER IN
LATE TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MILD AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CLEAR
AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY NOT QUITE DE-COUPLE
FULLY...WHICH WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT EVEN MORE GIVEN
THE LOW DEW POINTS. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS. GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. QPF AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH. COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL
MENTIONED...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN. PRECIP CHANCES MAY
TEMPORARILY END WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS HAPPENS WITH
A LULL POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF AMPLITUDE OF
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC-H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. UNTIL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CLEARING LATE FRIDAY AND A DRY...COOL
WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  62  45  52  49 /   0   0  -   60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  61  44  54  49 /   0   0  -   60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  64  47  56  52 /   0   0  10  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  59  42  50  46 /   0   0  -   60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  62  49  58  48 /   0   0  10  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  59  42  51  47 /   0   0  -   60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  64  47  55  51 /   0   0  10  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  62  45  54  50 /   0   0  10  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  62  45  58  54 /   0   0  -   40  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  64  48  55  53 /   0   0  10  60  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  64  49  57  54 /   0   0  10  60  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 152128
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MILD AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CLEAR
AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY NOT QUITE DE-COUPLE
FULLY...WHICH WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT EVEN MORE GIVEN
THE LOW DEW POINTS. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS. GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. QPF AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH. COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL
MENTIONED...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN. PRECIP CHANCES MAY
TEMPORARILY END WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS HAPPENS WITH
A LULL POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF AMPLITUDE OF
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC-H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. UNTIL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CLEARING LATE FRIDAY AND A DRY...COOL
WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  62  45  52  49 /   0   0  -   60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  61  44  54  49 /   0   0  -   60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  64  47  56  52 /   0   0  10  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  59  42  50  46 /   0   0  -   60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  62  49  58  48 /   0   0  10  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  59  42  51  47 /   0   0  -   60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  64  47  55  51 /   0   0  10  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  62  45  54  50 /   0   0  10  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  62  45  58  54 /   0   0  -   40  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  64  48  55  53 /   0   0  10  60  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  64  49  57  54 /   0   0  10  60  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 152128
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MILD AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CLEAR
AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY NOT QUITE DE-COUPLE
FULLY...WHICH WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT EVEN MORE GIVEN
THE LOW DEW POINTS. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS. GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. QPF AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH. COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAVORED AREAS FOR RAINFALL
MENTIONED...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN. PRECIP CHANCES MAY
TEMPORARILY END WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS HAPPENS WITH
A LULL POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT DETAILS OF AMPLITUDE OF
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC-H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. UNTIL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CLEARING LATE FRIDAY AND A DRY...COOL
WEEKEND. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              44  62  45  52  49 /   0   0  -   60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  61  44  54  49 /   0   0  -   60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  64  47  56  52 /   0   0  10  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  59  42  50  46 /   0   0  -   60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  62  49  58  48 /   0   0  10  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  59  42  51  47 /   0   0  -   60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  64  47  55  51 /   0   0  10  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        43  62  45  54  50 /   0   0  10  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   44  62  45  58  54 /   0   0  -   40  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  64  48  55  53 /   0   0  10  60  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  64  49  57  54 /   0   0  10  60  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 151741 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO FOG AND LOW CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
5KTS BY 00Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION SETS UP. WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WE COULD
SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FOR SOME SCT
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AT KDRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CLEARING WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30








000
FXUS64 KEWX 151741 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO FOG AND LOW CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
5KTS BY 00Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION SETS UP. WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WE COULD
SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FOR SOME SCT
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AT KDRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CLEARING WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 151611
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CLEARING WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KDRT...ALONG RIDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TO BURNET. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS KDRT AND KAUS IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
TO VFR QUICKLY. KSSF AND KSAT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID MORNING
BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE...AT FIRST LIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUS...THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 151611
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CLEARING WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KDRT...ALONG RIDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TO BURNET. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS KDRT AND KAUS IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
TO VFR QUICKLY. KSSF AND KSAT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID MORNING
BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE...AT FIRST LIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUS...THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 151611
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CLEARING WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KDRT...ALONG RIDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TO BURNET. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS KDRT AND KAUS IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
TO VFR QUICKLY. KSSF AND KSAT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID MORNING
BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE...AT FIRST LIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUS...THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 151611
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1011 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE
ESCARPMENT. ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. CLEARING WILL
GRADUALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KDRT...ALONG RIDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TO BURNET. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS KDRT AND KAUS IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
TO VFR QUICKLY. KSSF AND KSAT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID MORNING
BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE...AT FIRST LIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUS...THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 151123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KDRT...ALONG RIDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TO BURNET. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS KDRT AND KAUS IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
TO VFR QUICKLY. KSSF AND KSAT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID MORNING
BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE...AT FIRST LIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUS...THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 151123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY SPANNING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KDRT...ALONG RIDGE OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND TO BURNET. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS KDRT AND KAUS IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE...DRIER AIR WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS
TO VFR QUICKLY. KSSF AND KSAT WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID MORNING
BEFORE THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE...AT FIRST LIFR VIS AND CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAUS...THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 150948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 150948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29








000
FXUS64 KEWX 150948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 150948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. WE SHOULD SEE VEERING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO EXTEND BEYOND THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WE WILL FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AS LOWS REACH THE
30S/40S WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW SET UP OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INDUCED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OR ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE REGION AND WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DEEP
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL HAVE A BEARING ON RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THE TRACK MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND IS A BIT SLOWER AND DIGS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH. THUS THERE
ARE FURTHER DIFFERENCES WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF. THE GFS HAS THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN. ALSO...NO MEMBER OF THE GFSENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF. THIS OUTCOME WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION CURRENTLY. MODELS HAD A
SOUTHWARD TRACK BEFORE COMING INTO AN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 50
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND WILL
MENTION THUNDER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AND COLDER WEATHER AS WELL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  46  61  45  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  43  60  44  55 /   0   0  -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  46  62  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  42  58  43  52 /   0   0  -   -   40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  45  62  49  58 /   0   0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  42  58  44  54 /   0   0  -   -   40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  44  63  47  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  44  61  45  56 /   0   0  -   -   40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  46  62  47  60 /  10  -   -   10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  47  63  48  57 /   0   0  -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  48  63  49  59 /   0   0  -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29








000
FXUS64 KEWX 150532
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1132 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT KAUS AND KSAT AND SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 09Z AT KSSF. KDRT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...IN THE HILL
COUNTRY...BUT THIS IS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BE SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
FRONT AFTER 16Z-18Z. EXPECT A FURTHER CHANGE TO NORTHERLY BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WILL
UPDATE TO MENTION. INSTABILITY HAS WANED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO WANED WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ALONG I-35 FROM AUSTIN NORTHEAST AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A
COUPLE OF HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER I-35 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN FAVOR OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MODELS
STILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENDING ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  44  60  46 /  10  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  41  60  45 /  10  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  75  45  62  48 /  10  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  69  40  58  44 /  10   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  73  44  62  49 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  70  40  59  44 /  10  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  74  42  61  46 /  10  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  75  44  62  47 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  75  46  62  49 /  10  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  76  46  62  50 /  10  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 150532
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1132 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT KAUS AND KSAT AND SHOULD DEVELOP
BY 09Z AT KSSF. KDRT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...IN THE HILL
COUNTRY...BUT THIS IS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BE SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
FRONT AFTER 16Z-18Z. EXPECT A FURTHER CHANGE TO NORTHERLY BY 00Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WILL
UPDATE TO MENTION. INSTABILITY HAS WANED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO WANED WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ALONG I-35 FROM AUSTIN NORTHEAST AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A
COUPLE OF HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER I-35 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN FAVOR OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MODELS
STILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENDING ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  44  60  46 /  10  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  41  60  45 /  10  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  75  45  62  48 /  10  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  69  40  58  44 /  10   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  73  44  62  49 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  70  40  59  44 /  10  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  74  42  61  46 /  10  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  75  44  62  47 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  75  46  62  49 /  10  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  76  46  62  50 /  10  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 150355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WILL
UPDATE TO MENTION. INSTABILITY HAS WANED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO WANED WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ALONG I-35 FROM AUSTIN NORTHEAST AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A
COUPLE OF HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER I-35 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN FAVOR OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MODELS
STILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENDING ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  44  60  46 /  10  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  41  60  45 /  10  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  75  45  62  48 /  10  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  69  40  58  44 /  10   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  73  44  62  49 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  70  40  59  44 /  10  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  74  42  61  46 /  10  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  75  44  62  47 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  75  46  62  49 /  10  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  76  46  62  50 /  10  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









000
FXUS64 KEWX 150355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WILL
UPDATE TO MENTION. INSTABILITY HAS WANED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO WANED WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ALONG I-35 FROM AUSTIN NORTHEAST AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A
COUPLE OF HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER I-35 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN FAVOR OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MODELS
STILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENDING ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  44  60  46 /  10  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  41  60  45 /  10  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  75  45  62  48 /  10  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  69  40  58  44 /  10   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  73  44  62  49 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  70  40  59  44 /  10  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  74  42  61  46 /  10  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  75  44  62  47 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  75  46  62  49 /  10  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  76  46  62  50 /  10  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 150355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WILL
UPDATE TO MENTION. INSTABILITY HAS WANED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO WANED WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ALONG I-35 FROM AUSTIN NORTHEAST AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A
COUPLE OF HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER I-35 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN FAVOR OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MODELS
STILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENDING ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  44  60  46 /  10  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  41  60  45 /  10  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  75  45  62  48 /  10  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  69  40  58  44 /  10   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  73  44  62  49 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  70  40  59  44 /  10  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  74  42  61  46 /  10  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  75  44  62  47 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  75  46  62  49 /  10  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  76  46  62  50 /  10  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 150355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL
EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WILL
UPDATE TO MENTION. INSTABILITY HAS WANED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WHILE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED AND
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO WANED WITH
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ALONG I-35 FROM AUSTIN NORTHEAST AND
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 20 WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A
COUPLE OF HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF OVER I-35 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION IN FAVOR OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MODELS
STILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ENDING ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  44  60  46 /  10  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  41  60  45 /  10  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  75  45  62  48 /  10  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  69  40  58  44 /  10   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  73  44  62  49 /   0   0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  70  40  59  44 /  10  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  74  42  61  46 /  10  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  75  44  62  47 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  75  46  62  49 /  10  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  76  46  62  50 /  10  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









000
FXUS64 KEWX 142355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  72  44  60  46 /  40  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  73  41  60  45 /  40  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  75  45  62  48 /  30  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  69  40  58  44 /  20   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  73  44  62  49 /  -    0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  70  40  59  44 /  30  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  74  42  61  46 /  30  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  75  44  62  47 /  30  20  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  75  46  62  49 /  20  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  46  62  50 /  20  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 142355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
TEMPO -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT KAUS THROUGH 03Z...BUT SHOULD END
THEN. DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES. DRIER AIR
SHOULD PREVENT CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDRT...AND BRING RAPID CLEARING
TO THE I-35 SITES AFTER 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TO NORTH BY 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  72  44  60  46 /  40  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  73  41  60  45 /  40  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  75  45  62  48 /  30  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  69  40  58  44 /  20   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  73  44  62  49 /  -    0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  70  40  59  44 /  30  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  74  42  61  46 /  30  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  75  44  62  47 /  30  20  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  75  46  62  49 /  20  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  46  62  50 /  20  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 142143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  72  44  60  46 /  40  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  73  41  60  45 /  40  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  75  45  62  48 /  30  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  69  40  58  44 /  20   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  73  44  62  49 /  -    0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  70  40  59  44 /  30  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  74  42  61  46 /  30  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  75  44  62  47 /  30  20  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  75  46  62  49 /  20  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  46  62  50 /  20  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 142143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SO FAR CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH WEAK
INVERSION AROUND 800MB...RESULTING IN JUST WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EWX CWA. DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE
STRONG FORCING RESIDES. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW
SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTUAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND DRIER/MILD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENING AND SPREADING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SURFACE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WAA PATTERN STRENGTHENS FURTHER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WARM FRONT RETURNING BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH
FORCING TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND
STRONG 130-140 KT SUBTROPICAL JET SETTING UP FROM THE BIG BEND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND EVENTUALLY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF IN EXACT DETAILS OF
SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS 850MB/SFC FRONTAL FORCING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN AT LEAST GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS CLEARING AND MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  72  44  60  46 /  40  -    0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  73  41  60  45 /  40  -    0  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  75  45  62  48 /  30  -    0  -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  69  40  58  44 /  20   0   0  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  73  44  62  49 /  -    0   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  70  40  59  44 /  30  -    0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  75  42  61  47 /  10   0   0  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  74  42  61  46 /  30  -    0  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  75  44  62  47 /  30  20  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  75  46  62  49 /  20  -    0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  46  62  50 /  20  -    0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






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