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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CIG BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE ALSO INCREASING TO
PREVAILING BKN-OVC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
CIGS TO LOWER AS FAR AS BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAT/KSSF. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST A CATEGORY BETTER
THAN CIGS. SE-SLY SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW CIGS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
ALLOW BETTER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 17-19Z AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN IN THE 30-HR TAF WINDOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING CELL
ENTERING VAL VERDE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WAS TWEAKED
SOME TO REFLECT CLOSER ALIGNMENT WITH THE HWO AND SPC PROJECTIONS.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM MODEL HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT PATTERN OF
A POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGION OF NORTH CENTRAL TX IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATING S/SW INTO MAINLY THE HILL COUNTRY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS BEING REPLICATED IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF MANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS. AN 850 MB THETA-E AXIS
AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HELP STEER THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY... RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THUS DESPITE
A LOW AMOUNT OF COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH THESE STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS...WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BEFORE CIG BASES BEGIN TO LOWER. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAINS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
EXPLICIT MENTION OF IMPACTS AT TAF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO LIFR IN
THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
VSBYS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. SE-SLY SFC WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND ALLOW BETTER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY 17-19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHES TO THE EAST. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER PARTS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE LOWER 60S HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

MONDAY WILL START CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT RAINS AND EVEN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE DAY...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S WITH AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LARGE INSTABILITY NUMBERS SUCH AS CAPE
OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -8. WE ARE
CARRYING LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DOES
DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM MID AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 9 PM
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WILL START WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FIRING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN
ANGELO AREAS WITH STORMS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE HE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS EVENT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE EVENING
MONDAY/OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND AROUND THE LOWER 90S WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  82  62  84  62 /  20  20  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  83  61  84  60 /  20  20  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  83  61  85  60 /  20  20  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  82  63  83  62 /  20  30  40  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  86  66  89  67 /  20  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  82  63  83  63 /  20  20  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  86  63  91  64 /  20  10  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  61  84  60 /  20  20  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  81  63  84  62 /  20  20  20  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  84  62  87  63 /  20  20  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  63  89  62 /  20  10  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 210109
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
809 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING CELL
ENTERING VAL VERDE COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WAS TWEAKED
SOME TO REFLECT CLOSER ALIGNMENT WITH THE HWO AND SPC PROJECTIONS.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM MODEL HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT PATTERN OF
A POSSIBLE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE REGION OF NORTH CENTRAL TX IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATING S/SW INTO MAINLY THE HILL COUNTRY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS BEING REPLICATED IN THE
LATER PERIODS OF MANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS. AN 850 MB THETA-E AXIS
AND THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HELP STEER THIS AREA OF
INSTABILITY... RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THUS DESPITE
A LOW AMOUNT OF COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH THESE STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS...WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BEFORE CIG BASES BEGIN TO LOWER. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAINS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
EXPLICIT MENTION OF IMPACTS AT TAF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO LIFR IN
THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
VSBYS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. SE-SLY SFC WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND ALLOW BETTER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY 17-19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHES TO THE EAST. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER PARTS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE LOWER 60S HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

MONDAY WILL START CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT RAINS AND EVEN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE DAY...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S WITH AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LARGE INSTABILITY NUMBERS SUCH AS CAPE
OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -8. WE ARE
CARRYING LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DOES
DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM MID AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 9 PM
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WILL START WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FIRING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN
ANGELO AREAS WITH STORMS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE HE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS EVENT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE EVENING
MONDAY/OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND AROUND THE LOWER 90S WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  82  62  84  62 /  20  20  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  83  61  84  60 /  20  20  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  83  61  85  60 /  20  20  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  82  63  83  62 /  20  30  40  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  86  66  89  67 /  20  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  82  63  83  63 /  20  20  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  86  63  91  64 /  20  10  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  61  84  60 /  20  20  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  81  63  84  62 /  20  20  20  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  84  62  87  63 /  20  20  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  63  89  62 /  20  10  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 202350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BEFORE CIG BASES BEGIN TO LOWER. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA REMAINS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
EXPLICIT MENTION OF IMPACTS AT TAF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO LIFR IN
THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
VSBYS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. SE-SLY SFC WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND ALLOW BETTER MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY 17-19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHES TO THE EAST. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER PARTS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE LOWER 60S HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

MONDAY WILL START CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT RAINS AND EVEN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE DAY...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S WITH AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LARGE INSTABILITY NUMBERS SUCH AS CAPE
OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -8. WE ARE
CARRYING LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DOES
DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM MID AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 9 PM
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WILL START WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FIRING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN
ANGELO AREAS WITH STORMS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE HE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS EVENT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE EVENING
MONDAY/OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND AROUND THE LOWER 90S WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  82  62  84  62 /  20  20  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  83  61  84  60 /  20  20  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  83  61  85  60 /  20  10  20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  82  63  83  62 /  20  20  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  86  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  82  63  83  63 /  20  20  20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  86  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  61  84  60 /  20  20  20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  81  63  84  62 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  84  62  87  63 /  20  20  20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  63  89  62 /  20  10  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A LOT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHES TO THE EAST. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER PARTS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS TRAVEL EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
THE LOWER 60S HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

MONDAY WILL START CLOUDY MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT RAINS AND EVEN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LATER IN THE DAY...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S WITH AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LARGE INSTABILITY NUMBERS SUCH AS CAPE
OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -4 TO -8. WE ARE
CARRYING LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENT...HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DOES
DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM MID AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 9 PM
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WILL START WITH ISOLATED STORMS
FIRING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN
ANGELO AREAS WITH STORMS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE HE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS EVENT. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE EVENING
MONDAY/OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARMING TREND AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND AROUND THE LOWER 90S WEST. A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  82  62  84  62 /  20  20  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  83  61  84  60 /  20  20  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  83  61  85  60 /  20  10  20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  82  63  83  62 /  20  20  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  86  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  82  63  83  63 /  20  20  20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  86  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  61  84  60 /  20  20  20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  81  63  84  62 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  84  62  87  63 /  20  20  20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  63  89  62 /  20  10  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30











000
FXUS64 KEWX 201746
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTER A MORNING OF WIDESPREAD IFR...CEILINGS ARE SLOWING RISING
INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THINNING TAKING PLACE
IN SOME LOCATIONS SO WENT WITH SOME VFR CONDITIONS BY THE 21-22Z
TIME FRAME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OUT IN DRT OF
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEARER SKIES
ADVANCING EASTWARD. TIME TOOL PUTS THE CLEARING LINE INTO DRT
AROUND THE 21Z MARK. CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION
FOR THE REST OF TODAY OR TOMORROW. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY SO LOOKING FOR A REPEAT OF IFR CIGS
AND SOME LOWER VSBYS AS WELL. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND -RA MAY ALSO
BE AROUND. TROF AXIS IS PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT SO WESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICKER VFR BY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. BUT
THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE SOCKED IN ONCE AGAIN ALL TAF SITES. SCT
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT AUS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT TIMING AND
LOW POP KEEPS THE CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LARGE CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT RAINS OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  60  83  61  85 /  10  10  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  66  86  66  88 /  30  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  62  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  64  86  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  61  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  63  84  63  86 /  20  10  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  63  85  63  87 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201725 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LARGE CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT RAINS OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST GFS/LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  75  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  60  83  61  85 /  10  10  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  66  86  66  88 /  30  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  62  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  64  86  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  61  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  63  84  63  86 /  20  10  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  63  85  63  87 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201523 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1023 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS COVERING MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING THIS
TREND FOR THE REST OF TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH A SOLO
MODERATE SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CITY OF BURNET.
STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO TRIGGER OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF JUNCTION TO UVALDE TO CARRIZO
SPRINGS OR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD AS WEATHER GRIDS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIRES MODELS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE
WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. KAUS IS DOWN TO LIFR.
EXPECTING TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z AND LIKELY REMAIN THERE
UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR. AFTER 04Z
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN AND FALL TO IFR AFTER 08Z...THEN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY. ONLY TERMINAL CURRENTLY WITH FOG IS KAUS
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL FOG WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE AT OTHER SITES DUE TO LARGER TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS. WILL SEE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 3SM-5SM.
WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR -RA/-SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT KDRT. SINCE WE
HAVE NO FOCUS AND LOW POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING
OF ANY CONVECTION SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN I-35 TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KDRT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE E/SE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z AND BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS ARE WANING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING JET
STREAK MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE PROXIMITY TO THE RAGGED
UPPER LOW AND HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND
MEXICO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT
LOWISH POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENT ENOUGH
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY INTACT.

THE MAIN ACTION STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-EVENING MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY...BUT THE
COMMONALITY IS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (CAPE >= 2000
J/KG)...WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR (20 M/S)...AND AVERAGE
FREEZING LEVELS (11 KFT). DEPENDING ON DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES...THERE COULD BE A RANGE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS...FROM
RIGHT (SWWRD) MOVING SUPERCELLS...TO A MODERATE MCS SWEEPING THE
NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA...TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
MINIMALLY-SEVERE STORMS. STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO BE VERY SLOW AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...AND MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. SINCE OUR AREA IS THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH...ONLY
20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 8OS AND LOWER 90S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
MINOR RIPPLES IN THIS SUBTROPICAL FLOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME WOULD BE STORMS FORMING ON THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAKING IT
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  60  83  61  85 /  10  10  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  66  86  66  88 /  30  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  62  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  64  86  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  61  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  63  84  63  86 /  20  10  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  63  85  63  87 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201126 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. KAUS IS DOWN TO LIFR.
EXPECTING TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z AND LIKELY REMAIN THERE
UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR. AFTER 04Z
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN AND FALL TO IFR AFTER 08Z...THEN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY. ONLY TERMINAL CURRENTLY WITH FOG IS KAUS
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL FOG WILL BECOME
AN ISSUE AT OTHER SITES DUE TO LARGER TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS. WILL SEE
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 3SM-5SM.
WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR -RA/-SHRA/-TSRA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT KDRT. SINCE WE
HAVE NO FOCUS AND LOW POPS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING
OF ANY CONVECTION SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN I-35 TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KDRT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE E/SE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z AND BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS ARE WANING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING JET
STREAK MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE PROXIMITY TO THE RAGGED
UPPER LOW AND HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND
MEXICO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT
LOWISH POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENT ENOUGH
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY INTACT.

THE MAIN ACTION STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-EVENING MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY...BUT THE
COMMONALITY IS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (CAPE >= 2000
J/KG)...WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR (20 M/S)...AND AVERAGE
FREEZING LEVELS (11 KFT). DEPENDING ON DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES...THERE COULD BE A RANGE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS...FROM
RIGHT (SWWRD) MOVING SUPERCELLS...TO A MODERATE MCS SWEEPING THE
NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA...TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
MINIMALLY-SEVERE STORMS. STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO BE VERY SLOW AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...AND MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. SINCE OUR AREA IS THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH...ONLY
20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 8OS AND LOWER 90S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
MINOR RIPPLES IN THIS SUBTROPICAL FLOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME WOULD BE STORMS FORMING ON THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAKING IT
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  60  83  61  85 /  10  10  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  66  86  66  88 /  30  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  62  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  64  86  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  61  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  63  84  63  86 /  20  10  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  63  85  63  87 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200847
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS ARE WANING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING JET
STREAK MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE PROXIMITY TO THE RAGGED
UPPER LOW AND HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND
MEXICO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT
LOWISH POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENT ENOUGH
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAY INTACT.

THE MAIN ACTION STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID-EVENING MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY...BUT THE
COMMONALITY IS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (CAPE >= 2000
J/KG)...WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6 KM SHEAR (20 M/S)...AND AVERAGE
FREEZING LEVELS (11 KFT). DEPENDING ON DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES...THERE COULD BE A RANGE OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS...FROM
RIGHT (SWWRD) MOVING SUPERCELLS...TO A MODERATE MCS SWEEPING THE
NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA...TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
MINIMALLY-SEVERE STORMS. STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO BE VERY SLOW AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR FLASH FLOODING.
OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...AND MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. SINCE OUR AREA IS THE FAR TAIL END OF THE TROUGH...ONLY
20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM TREND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 8OS AND LOWER 90S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
MINOR RIPPLES IN THIS SUBTROPICAL FLOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME WOULD BE STORMS FORMING ON THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAKING IT
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  62  82  63  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  60  83  61  85 /  10  10  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  61  81  63  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  66  86  66  88 /  30  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  62  81  64  82 /  20  10  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  64  86  64  87 /  20  10  20  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  60  82  61  83 /  10  10  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  61  81  62  82 /  10  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  63  84  63  86 /  20  10  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  63  85  63  87 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200452
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CIG BASES WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MVFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 08-09Z. BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IFR LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE MVFR OR BETTER...WITH PATCHY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. ISO TO SCT CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
EXPLICIT IMPACTS AT TAF TERMINALS. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW CIGS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SLY SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED THIS EVENING TO MAKE SUBTLE CHANGES TO SKY...
TEMP...AND WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...AS
LIGHTING ACTIVITY EXTENDS DEEP INTO NRN MEXICO. FOR THIS
REASON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE NUDGED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE AREA ANALYZED THIS
EVENING SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE LESS EXTENSIVE OVER SW AND NE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EASTWARD...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TAF PERIOD...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION
AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...ENABLING A STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO FALL TO BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR IN THE NEAR
SUNRISE HOURS AT I-35 TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE MVFR OR BETTER...WITH PATCHY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. PERSISTENT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT HAVE
GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION OF A FEW HRS OF VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES/GULF OF MEXICO AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OR FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER WAVE (FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT)...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO
DEL RIO LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN HAZARDS. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AT THE SAME
TIME...A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO -7. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. AS OF NOW...SPC DAY3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
HAS THE HILL COUNTRY (NORTHEAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO KERRVILLE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE) WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS
EVENT.

STORMS WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT TYPICAL SPRING DAYS OVER THE AREA
WITH 90S OVER THE WEST AND UPPER 80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  79  62  83  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  60  83  62 /  10  20  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  79  61  84  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  76  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  81  66  88  66 /  30  30  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  78  62  82  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  81  65  88  65 /  10  20  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  78  60  83  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  79  63  85  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  81  63  87  64 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18








000
FXUS64 KEWX 200221
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED THIS EVENING TO MAKE SUBTLE CHANGES TO SKY...
TEMP...AND WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...AS
LIGHTING ACTIVITY EXTENDS DEEP INTO NRN MEXICO. FOR THIS
REASON...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE NUDGED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE AREA ANALYZED THIS
EVENING SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE LESS EXTENSIVE OVER SW AND NE
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EASTWARD...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TAF PERIOD...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION
AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...ENABLING A STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO FALL TO BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR IN THE NEAR
SUNRISE HOURS AT I-35 TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE MVFR OR BETTER...WITH PATCHY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. PERSISTENT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT HAVE
GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION OF A FEW HRS OF VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES/GULF OF MEXICO AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OR FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER WAVE (FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT)...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO
DEL RIO LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN HAZARDS. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AT THE SAME
TIME...A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO -7. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. AS OF NOW...SPC DAY3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
HAS THE HILL COUNTRY (NORTHEAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO KERRVILLE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE) WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS
EVENT.

STORMS WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT TYPICAL SPRING DAYS OVER THE AREA
WITH 90S OVER THE WEST AND UPPER 80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  79  62  83  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  60  83  62 /  10  20  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  79  61  84  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  76  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  81  66  88  66 /  30  30  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  78  62  82  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  81  65  88  65 /  10  20  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  78  60  83  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  79  63  85  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  81  63  87  64 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 192342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EASTWARD...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TAF PERIOD...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION
AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...ENABLING A STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO FALL TO BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR IN THE NEAR
SUNRISE HOURS AT I-35 TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE MVFR OR BETTER...WITH PATCHY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. PERSISTENT MOIST SLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT HAVE
GONE WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLUTION OF A FEW HRS OF VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES/GULF OF MEXICO AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OR FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER WAVE (FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT)...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO
DEL RIO LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN HAZARDS. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AT THE SAME
TIME...A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO -7. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. AS OF NOW...SPC DAY3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
HAS THE HILL COUNTRY (NORTHEAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO KERRVILLE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE) WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS
EVENT.

STORMS WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT TYPICAL SPRING DAYS OVER THE AREA
WITH 90S OVER THE WEST AND UPPER 80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  79  62  83  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  60  83  62 /  10  20  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  79  61  84  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  76  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  81  66  88  66 /  30  30  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  78  62  82  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  81  65  88  65 /  10  20  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  78  60  83  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  79  63  85  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  81  63  87  64 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192027
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES/GULF OF MEXICO AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EXPAND TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OR FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER WAVE (FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT)...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO
DEL RIO LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS MAIN HAZARDS. ONCE AGAIN...QPF VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.


&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AT THE SAME
TIME...A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO -7. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. AS OF NOW...SPC DAY3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
HAS THE HILL COUNTRY (NORTHEAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO KERRVILLE TO
GEORGETOWN LINE) WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR THIS
EVENT.

STORMS WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT TYPICAL SPRING DAYS OVER THE AREA
WITH 90S OVER THE WEST AND UPPER 80S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  79  62  83  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  60  83  62 /  10  20  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  79  61  84  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  76  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  81  66  88  66 /  30  30  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  78  62  82  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  81  65  88  65 /  10  20  10  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  78  60  83  61 /  10  20  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  79  63  85  64 /  10  20  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  81  63  87  64 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 191758
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1258 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDCOVER
CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIP ON
THE KDFX RADAR IS STAYING OFF TO THEIR WEST AS OF RIGHT NOW. POP
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE DRT TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN FORM OVER MEXICO...MAY BE ABLE TO
INPUT A TEMPO GROUP WITH SOME IMPACT AT THE DRT TAF SITE. ALL
SITES WERE LEFT WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS.

ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND SIMULATED WRF SATELLITE SHOW IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AROUND THAT 07-09Z TIME FRAME...ADVANCING
IN FROM THE SE. WENT WITH THESE LOWER CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST AND
MENTIONED IFR ALL LOCATIONS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO OR AROUND DAWN.
NAM WAS VERY ROBUST IN KEEPING LOW CIGS ALL DAY ON SUNDAY...UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND PARTIAL HEATING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. NO
DOUBT LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN A FEW LAYERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WENT MVFR AT LEAST THROUGH ALL THE MORNING HOURS. MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH SOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE MIXES JUST
A BIT. WILL WATCH CONVECTION CHANCES OUT WEST NEAR DRT ONCE
AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INPUT A PROB30 GROUPING FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
FIRST PERIOD FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY
AS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY MAX MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. STILL EXPECTING A LARGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
AS A SECOND BUT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO JUST UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE POPS ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
STILL EXPECTING SPOTTY COVERAGE AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191522 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1022 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FIRST PERIOD FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY
AS A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY MAX MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST
TEXAS. STILL EXPECTING A LARGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
AS A SECOND BUT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OR FROM A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO JUST UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE POPS ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
STILL EXPECTING SPOTTY COVERAGE AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191151
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO JUST UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE POPS ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
STILL EXPECTING SPOTTY COVERAGE AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191133 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W/SW. THIS MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTER 16Z WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIGS DEVELOP AROUND 4K FEET.
THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z-10Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST WITH VSBYS REDUCED TO
4SM-5SM. DID NOT INCLUDE EXCEPT AT KAUS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 16Z. AFTER SUNSET WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP AT KDRT FOR TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ALL OF THIS COMING TOGETHER OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND OVERALL STORM MOTION COULD BE A SLOW
5-10 KTS FOR RIGHT MOVING STORMS...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NEARLY
DUE EAST GIVEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE ST. LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS WEBSITE ANALOGS SHOW WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY FROM PAST SIMILAR EVENTS. AGREE WITH THE DAY 3 SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THIS THREAT AND HAVE TAKEN THE UNUSUAL STEP OF
INCLUDING IT IN THE HWO AND ZFP AT THIS RANGE AS A PRECAUTIONARY
HEADS-UP COMING OUT OF EASTER WEEKEND. THIS COULD IMPACT METRO
AUSTIN WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ALL OF THIS COMING TOGETHER OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND OVERALL STORM MOTION COULD BE A SLOW
5-10 KTS FOR RIGHT MOVING STORMS...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NEARLY
DUE EAST GIVEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE ST. LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS WEBSITE ANALOGS SHOW WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY FROM PAST SIMILAR EVENTS. AGREE WITH THE DAY 3 SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THIS THREAT AND HAVE TAKEN THE UNUSUAL STEP OF
INCLUDING IT IN THE HWO AND ZFP AT THIS RANGE AS A PRECAUTIONARY
HEADS-UP COMING OUT OF EASTER WEEKEND. THIS COULD IMPACT METRO
AUSTIN WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190454
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. BY AROUND 09Z...A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME POSSIBLE. BY DAYBREAK A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. TAFS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE
BROADER LOW LEVEL DRY PATTERN AND THE CLOUD COVER ALOFT. VFR
SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SOONER...AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MORE
CONSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05









000
FXUS64 KEWX 182354 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES SHOULD LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BENEATH ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...BUT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND EXTENT. A LAYER OF
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY DAYBREAK AND BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE
LATE MORNING. VFR SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
SOONER...AS GULF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 182353
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES SHOULD LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BENEATH ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...BUT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND EXTENT. A LAYER OF
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY DAYBREAK AND BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE
LATE MORNING. VFR SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
SOONER...AS GULF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181959
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181748 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A MIX OF VFR/UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AS LOW CIGS GO UP AND DOWN
BETWEEN 3 TO 4 KFT. REST OF TODAY AND EVENING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING/BREAKING
BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA SITES AT OR AROUND 17Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
STORMS NEARBY KDRT AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEAK DRYING WILL ENABLE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD BUT SEASONABLE...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. ONGOING FORECAST IS OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  80  60  79  62 /  -   10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  80  57  79  60 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  81  58  79  60 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  59  78  62 /  -   10  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  81  66 /  20  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  59  78  63 /  -   10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  82  62  81  64 /  -   20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  80  58  78  60 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  79  58  79  62 /  -   10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  82  61  79  64 /  -   10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  82  61  81  64 /  -   10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181512 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEAK DRYING WILL ENABLE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD BUT SEASONABLE...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. ONGOING FORECAST IS OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181142 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 180755
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







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