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000
FXUS64 KEWX 242030
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE HILL COUNTRY
WILL SLOW IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOUGH TO CALL THIS A COLD FRONT
AS MUCH DRIER AIR...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF
I-35... WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE... LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS INTACT NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION
FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA (VAL VERDE COUNTY) FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO WEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS AFFECTING VAL VERDE
COUNTY IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF AN EAGLE PASS TO KERRVILLE LINE. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL SHIFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35. THE STRONGER FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
REGION... BUT WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THE FORECAST WILL TREND DRIER FOR THE EARLY
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW PARKING ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LOW... WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
NOW... WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  89  66  88  70 /  -   -   10  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  89  62  88  69 /  -   -   10  10  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     59  90  64  89  69 /  -   -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  87  65  86  68 /  -   -   -   20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  92  70  94  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  87  65  85  69 /  -   -   -   10  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  93  68  93  71 /  -   -   10  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  89  65  88  69 /  -   -   10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  87  65  85  70 /  -   -   10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  90  67  90  70 /  -   -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  92  66  93  71 /  -   -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 241744 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT ONLY KSSF MAYBE
FROM 18Z TO 19Z AS A DRY-LINE/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. A WIND SHIFT FROM NW TO N AND NE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
I-35 SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
TRAVELS SOUTHEASTWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST
AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN
ON FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT BY 17Z
MOST AREAS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TREST OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS FROM NEAR
THROCKMORTON TO BIG SPRING AT 11Z. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AREA
AROUND 21-23 Z BEFORE WASHING OUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVIG IN THIS EVENING SHOULD HAMPER
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY FROM A PACIFIC FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
STABILITY THROUGH DECREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD PREVENT
THE STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
STORMS SHOULD THE MOIST LAYER BE SLOW TO DECREASE. INCREASING
TRENDS ON THE DRYING POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS
COULD SUGGEST THAT NO STORMS FORM AT ALL. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEN E/NE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESUME DRYING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY...ARID AND WARM DAY
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING...AND A QUICK RETURN OF
HUMIDITY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST COULD ENHANCE THIS LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY MIDDAY. LATE IN THE
DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT WILL EXPECT A CAP TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
MEXICO UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS NOTED
BY THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER OVER NORTH TX AND A DRY SLOT COULD
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF SAN ANTONIO.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD...LEAVING A SIMILAR BREEZY AND WARM DAY
FOR MONDAY. LATE MONDAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO LAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRENGTHENING TRENDS IN THE PACIFIC FRONT FOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE NEXT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST
OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  88  65  86  69 /  -   -   10  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  88  63  86  67 /  -   -   10  10  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  89  64  88  68 /  -   -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  87  65  84  68 /  -   -   -   20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  91  70  93  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  86  65  84  69 /  -   -   -   10  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  93  69  93  70 /  -   -   10  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  88  64  87  68 /  -   -   10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  87  65  85  69 /  -   -   10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  90  67  90  69 /  -   -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  91  67  92  70 /  -   -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE AND MVFR CEILINGS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LIFT BY 17Z
MOST AREAS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TREST OF THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS FROM NEAR
THROCKMORTON TO BIG SPRING AT 11Z. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AREA
AROUND 21-23 Z BEFORE WASHING OUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR MOVIG IN THIS EVENING SHOULD HAMPER
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY FROM A PACIFIC FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
STABILITY THROUGH DECREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD PREVENT
THE STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
STORMS SHOULD THE MOIST LAYER BE SLOW TO DECREASE. INCREASING
TRENDS ON THE DRYING POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS
COULD SUGGEST THAT NO STORMS FORM AT ALL. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEN E/NE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESUME DRYING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY...ARID AND WARM DAY
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING...AND A QUICK RETURN OF
HUMIDITY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST COULD ENHANCE THIS LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY MIDDAY. LATE IN THE
DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT WILL EXPECT A CAP TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
MEXICO UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS NOTED
BY THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER OVER NORTH TX AND A DRY SLOT COULD
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF SAN ANTONIO.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD...LEAVING A SIMILAR BREEZY AND WARM DAY
FOR MONDAY. LATE MONDAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO LAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRENGTHENING TRENDS IN THE PACIFIC FRONT FOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE NEXT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST
OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  61  88  65  86 /  20  -   -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  58  88  63  86 /  20  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  61  89  64  88 /  10  -   -   10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  57  87  65  84 /  10  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           95  64  91  70  93 /  -    0  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  57  86  65  84 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  62  93  69  93 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  60  88  64  87 /  10  -   -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  63  87  65  85 /  20  -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  63  90  67  90 /  10  -   -   10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  63  91  67  92 /  10  -   -   10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18









000
FXUS64 KEWX 240839
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY FROM A PACIFIC FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
STABILITY THROUGH DECREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD PREVENT
THE STORMS FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
STORMS SHOULD THE MOIST LAYER BE SLOW TO DECREASE. INCREASING
TRENDS ON THE DRYING POTENTIAL WITH THE MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS
COULD SUGGEST THAT NO STORMS FORM AT ALL. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THEN E/NE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESUME DRYING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY...ARID AND WARM DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY EVENING...AND A QUICK RETURN OF
HUMIDITY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
PATCHY DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST COULD ENHANCE THIS LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT BY MIDDAY. LATE IN THE
DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT WILL EXPECT A CAP TO KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
MEXICO UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS NOTED
BY THE DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER OVER NORTH TX AND A DRY SLOT COULD
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF SAN ANTONIO.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
BE SLOW TO EJECT EASTWARD...LEAVING A SIMILAR BREEZY AND WARM DAY
FOR MONDAY. LATE MONDAY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO LAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRENGTHENING TRENDS IN THE PACIFIC FRONT FOR TODAY WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE NEXT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST
OF I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  61  88  65  86 /  20  -   -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  58  88  63  86 /  20  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  61  89  64  88 /  10  -   -   10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  57  87  65  84 /  10  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           95  64  91  70  93 /  -    0  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  57  86  65  84 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  62  93  69  93 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  60  88  64  87 /  10  -   -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  63  87  65  85 /  20  -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  63  90  67  90 /  10  -   -   10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  63  91  67  92 /  10  -   -   10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240454
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TONIGHT.
THIS IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT. AUS HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO
MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AT SAT AND SSF WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. CIGS WILL LOWER FURTHER AT THESE TERMINALS TO IFR BY
AROUND 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINOR UPDATES HAVE
ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240412 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1112 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINOR UPDATES HAVE
ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THIS IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER
AROUND 06Z AND FALL TO IFR AROUND 10Z. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 232356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THIS IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER
AROUND 06Z AND FALL TO IFR AROUND 10Z. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  20  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  20  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  20  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 232001
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  20  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12








000
FXUS64 KEWX 231730 AAD
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND A FEW
OF THESE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CU
FIELD STARTING TO FORM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INCREASING
THE CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOME OF THIS CU WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AFTER 06S LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z-19Z. S/SE WINDS
10-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 02Z THEN WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF TO NEAR
10 KNOTS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF TSRA IN THE KDRT FORECAST BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE OTHER TERMINALS DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH
MIXING. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 930 AM AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231541
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH
MIXING. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 930 AM AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12








000
FXUS64 KEWX 231339
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
839 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 930 AM AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231152 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAININ GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 230837
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18








000
FXUS64 KEWX 230449 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW END MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING 10-11Z ALONG I-35...WITH CIGS DELAYED UNTIL 12Z FOR
KDRT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH
VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING WILL SERVE TO SCATTER MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SCT-BKN DECK (VFR WITH BASES 4K-
6K AGL) OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
KDRT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVING EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTION... WE HAVE
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KDRT BETWEEN 23/22-24/02.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33










000
FXUS64 KEWX 222349 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ALL
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
END MVFR CIGS BEGINNING 10-11Z ALONG I-35 WITH CIGS DELAYED UNTIL
ROUGHLY 12Z FOR KDRT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE
RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL SCATTER MVFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING... WITH A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 6K AGL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE IN THE PERIOD... CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE KDRT AREA. FOR NOW... CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA AT THE TERMINAL BEFORE 24/00Z IS LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY OPT TO ADD A PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 222030
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 221724
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING WEAK FRONT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A DECK OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 11Z. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND 15Z WITH A BKN/OVC DECK ALOFT. WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE GUSTY AT DRT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
AN EXCITING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IT/S A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS BOUNDARY...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY BEFORE THE
EVENING STORM/S DISSIPATED...COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A STORM OR TWO... BUT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW NO CONVECTION...
SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL FORCING FROM CONVECTION IN THE WEST
SHOULD ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE PUT 20 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THIS...BUT
THEY COULD END UP HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THAT SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A CUTOFF LOW IS PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOIST GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS IN IT/S WAKE. WENT WITH A BLEND AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  63  85  64  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  60  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  62  86  63  85 /  -    0  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  84  64  85 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  89  67  93 /  -   -   20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  84  65  83 /  -    0  -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  66  88  66  90 /  -    0  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  62  84  64  83 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  64  87  65  88 /  -    0  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  64  88  65  89 /  -    0  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 221116
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS
SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
AN EXCITING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IT/S A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS BOUNDARY...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY BEFORE THE
EVENING STORM/S DISSIPATED...COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A STORM OR TWO... BUT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW NO CONVECTION...
SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL FORCING FROM CONVECTION IN THE WEST
SHOULD ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE PUT 20 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THIS...BUT
THEY COULD END UP HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THAT SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A CUTOFF LOW IS PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOIST GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS IN IT/S WAKE. WENT WITH A BLEND AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  63  85  64  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  60  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  62  86  63  85 /  -    0  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  84  64  85 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  89  67  93 /  -   -   20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  84  65  83 /  -    0  -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  66  88  66  90 /  -    0  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  62  84  64  83 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  64  87  65  88 /  -    0  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  64  88  65  89 /  -    0  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26








000
FXUS64 KEWX 220841
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
AN EXCITING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IT/S A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS BOUNDARY...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY BEFORE THE
EVENING STORM/S DISSIPATED...COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A STORM OR TWO... BUT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW NO CONVECTION...
SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL FORCING FROM CONVECTION IN THE WEST
SHOULD ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE PUT 20 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THIS...BUT
THEY COULD END UP HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THAT SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A CUTOFF LOW IS PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOIST GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS IN IT/S WAKE. WENT WITH A BLEND AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  63  85  64  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  60  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  62  86  63  85 /  -    0  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  84  64  85 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  89  67  93 /  -   -   20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  84  65  83 /  -    0  -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  66  88  66  90 /  -    0  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  62  84  64  83 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  64  87  65  88 /  -    0  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  64  88  65  89 /  -    0  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220512 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1212 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF FOR THE STORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE STORMS WHICH
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM SONORA TO ROCKSPRINGS TO MEDINA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AFTER 2 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/HILL COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF TERMINALS.
DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...A DELAY
IN THE ONSET OF THE LOW STRATUS IS NOW EXPECTED...AND THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE OVERALL OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WEAK FRONT. SHOULD THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOP...IT WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS N-NELY SFC WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR ALLOWED EXPIRATION OF SVR WATCH 85.

DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/NORTH OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SW-WRD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE TO
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF CREEKS/STREAMS/DRAINAGE AREAS. ASIDE FROM TWEAKS DUE
TO THE WATCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM CDT AND
EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING IN CASE THE STORMS
LINGER PAST 06Z. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. ADDITIONALLY...00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND S/SW-WRD MOTION OF THE STORMS HAVE ADDED
KERR...KENDALL...AND COMAL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ISO-SCT TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KECU TO KHYI TO K3T5. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE STORMS DO
NOT INDICATE IMPACTS AT TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT TAF AMD MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS THE
SITUATION PROGRESSES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SEND DRIER N-NELY SFC WINDS INTO THE AREA...ENABLING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING HILL
COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OR FROM 3 PM TO ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME
TO SAN MARCOS TO TAYLOR LINE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERITY
CRITERIA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FOR THIS EVENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...ONE
HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOME ZONAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND UPPER 80S MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  85  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  85  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  83  62  85  65 /  40  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  70  92  69 /  30  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  62  84  66 /  40  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  90  67  90  69 /  30  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  85  64  86  67 /  20  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  65  87  68 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  89  65  90  68 /  20  -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220452
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1152 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/HILL COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF TERMINALS.
DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...A DELAY
IN THE ONSET OF THE LOW STRATUS IS NOW EXPECTED...AND THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE OVERALL OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WEAK FRONT. SHOULD THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOP...IT WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS N-NELY SFC WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR ALLOWED EXPIRATION OF SVR WATCH 85.

DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/NORTH OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SW-WRD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE TO
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF CREEKS/STREAMS/DRAINAGE AREAS. ASIDE FROM TWEAKS DUE
TO THE WATCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM CDT AND
EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING IN CASE THE STORMS
LINGER PAST 06Z. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. ADDITIONALLY...00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND S/SW-WRD MOTION OF THE STORMS HAVE ADDED
KERR...KENDALL...AND COMAL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ISO-SCT TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KECU TO KHYI TO K3T5. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE STORMS DO
NOT INDICATE IMPACTS AT TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT TAF AMD MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS THE
SITUATION PROGRESSES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SEND DRIER N-NELY SFC WINDS INTO THE AREA...ENABLING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING HILL
COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OR FROM 3 PM TO ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME
TO SAN MARCOS TO TAYLOR LINE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERITY
CRITERIA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FOR THIS EVENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...ONE
HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOME ZONAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND UPPER 80S MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  85  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  85  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  83  62  85  65 /  40  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  70  92  69 /  30  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  62  84  66 /  40  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  90  67  90  69 /  20  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  85  64  86  67 /  20  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  65  87  68 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  89  65  90  68 /  20  -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220308 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR ALLOWED EXPIRATION OF SVR WATCH 85.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/NORTH OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SW-WRD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE TO
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF CREEKS/STREAMS/DRAINAGE AREAS. ASIDE FROM TWEAKS DUE
TO THE WATCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM CDT AND
EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING IN CASE THE STORMS
LINGER PAST 06Z. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. ADDITIONALLY...00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND S/SW-WRD MOTION OF THE STORMS HAVE ADDED
KERR...KENDALL...AND COMAL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ISO-SCT TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KECU TO KHYI TO K3T5. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE STORMS DO
NOT INDICATE IMPACTS AT TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT TAF AMD MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS THE
SITUATION PROGRESSES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SEND DRIER N-NELY SFC WINDS INTO THE AREA...ENABLING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING HILL
COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OR FROM 3 PM TO ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME
TO SAN MARCOS TO TAYLOR LINE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERITY
CRITERIA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FOR THIS EVENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...ONE
HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
.ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOME ZONAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND UPPER 80S MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  85  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  85  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  83  62  85  65 /  40  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  70  92  69 /  30  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  62  84  66 /  40  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  90  67  90  69 /  20  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  85  64  86  67 /  20  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  65  87  68 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  89  65  90  68 /  20  -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 212343 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. ADDITIONALLY...00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND S/SW-WRD MOTION OF THE STORMS HAVE ADDED
KERR...KENDALL...AND COMAL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ISO-SCT TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KECU TO KHYI TO K3T5. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE STORMS DO
NOT INDICATE IMPACTS AT TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT TAF AMD MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS THE
SITUATION PROGRESSES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SEND DRIER N-NELY SFC WINDS INTO THE AREA...ENABLING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING HILL
COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OR FROM 3 PM TO ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME
TO SAN MARCOS TO TAYLOR LINE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERITY
CRITERIA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FOR THIS EVENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...ONE
HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
..ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOME ZONAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND UPPER 80S MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  85  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  85  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  83  62  85  65 /  40  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  70  92  69 /  30  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  62  84  66 /  40  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  90  67  90  69 /  20  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  85  64  86  67 /  20  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  65  87  68 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  89  65  90  68 /  20  -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







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