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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220942
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE JET IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS
IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE FORCING IS SHOWN BY THE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
ARE OVERSPREADING WEST TEXAS. THE MAIN UPPER FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER FOCUS FOR LIFT
ARRIVES...WE SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE TO SEE THIS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LIFT ARRIVES. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL DROP
OFF TO 1000 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO WEAK SUPERCELLS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN THE AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ONCE
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY END UP
BEING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY TO REALIZE THE PEAK CAPE VALUES. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE
CWA THAT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z. THE
SHERB PARAMETER WHICH IS DECENT IN PICKING UP SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS /EASTERN ZONES/ IS LESS
THAN WHAT WAS FORECASTED YESTERDAY...BUT IS STILL NEAR THE
THRESHOLD TO SUPPORT THE NOTION FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OUT OF ANY LINE SEGMENTS WHICH FORM WITHIN THE LARGE MASS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INITIALLY...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD
BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE CONVECTION FROM ANY POSSIBLE LINE
SEGMENTS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT LOW WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCATED.

PW VALUES WILL RISE UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THESE MENTIONED AREAS. WPC DAY 1 QPF
VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR 1/4 OF AN INCH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR
2 INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 3Z OR 9 PM.
WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY GIVING US A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS USUALLY LEADS TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
SHOULD BE PRETTY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S/40S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  56  80  46  64 / 100  50   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  56  80  46  64 / 100  60   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  56  81  46  65 /  90  50   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  53  77  42  62 / 100  40   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  51  80  46  65 /  40  10   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  55  78  44  62 / 100  50   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  53  78  45  64 /  70  40   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  56  80  45  64 /  90  60   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  57  79  46  64 /  90  90   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  55  80  46  65 /  80  50   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  56  81  47  66 /  80  50   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29








000
FXUS64 KEWX 220942
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE JET IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AND THIS
IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE FORCING IS SHOWN BY THE INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
ARE OVERSPREADING WEST TEXAS. THE MAIN UPPER FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER FOCUS FOR LIFT
ARRIVES...WE SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE TO SEE THIS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE UPPER LIFT ARRIVES. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. CAPE VALUES WILL DROP
OFF TO 1000 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO WEAK SUPERCELLS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN THE AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ONCE
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY END UP
BEING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY TO REALIZE THE PEAK CAPE VALUES. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE
CWA THAT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 03Z. THE
SHERB PARAMETER WHICH IS DECENT IN PICKING UP SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS /EASTERN ZONES/ IS LESS
THAN WHAT WAS FORECASTED YESTERDAY...BUT IS STILL NEAR THE
THRESHOLD TO SUPPORT THE NOTION FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OUT OF ANY LINE SEGMENTS WHICH FORM WITHIN THE LARGE MASS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INITIALLY...SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD
BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE CONVECTION FROM ANY POSSIBLE LINE
SEGMENTS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT LOW WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCATED.

PW VALUES WILL RISE UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THESE MENTIONED AREAS. WPC DAY 1 QPF
VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR 1/4 OF AN INCH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR
2 INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 3Z OR 9 PM.
WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY GIVING US A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS USUALLY LEADS TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER FOR THANKSGIVING
SHOULD BE PRETTY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
30S/40S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  56  80  46  64 / 100  50   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  56  80  46  64 / 100  60   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  56  81  46  65 /  90  50   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  53  77  42  62 / 100  40   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  51  80  46  65 /  40  10   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  55  78  44  62 / 100  50   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  53  78  45  64 /  70  40   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  56  80  45  64 /  90  60   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  57  79  46  64 /  90  90   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  55  80  46  65 /  80  50   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  56  81  47  66 /  80  50   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29









000
FXUS64 KEWX 220544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING 10Z-14Z. OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRAS AND
ISOLD TSTMS WEST OF I-35...AS LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHEN. A FEW STRONGER SHRAS/TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. PREVAILING
SHRAS IN THE DRT TAF OVERNIGHT...WITH SHRA EXPANDING INTO THE
SAT/SSF TERMINALS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND INTO THE AUS TERMINAL
AROUND DAYBREAK. COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL INCREASE 12Z-18Z ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS CONTINUING. FORCING INCREASES
18Z-00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH NUMEROUS
SHRAS AND EMBEDDED TSRAS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A JCT-HDO-COT LINE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. SAT/AUS/SSF TAFS ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AFTER
18Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ARE
STILL QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN INTO WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER
WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS WITH 40 TO 50
KTS OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST OF PW VALUES HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND IS NOW 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GO FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE VARYING THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEVER GET ESTABLISHED IN
ANY DIRECTION FOR A LONG TIME. SO EXPECTING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  71  56  78  47 /  50  90  70   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  72  53  78  45 /  50  90  70   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  74  55  78  46 /  60  90  60   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  68  52  75  43 /  60  90  60   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  70  54  76  44 /  50  90  70   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  73  49  76  43 /  70  80  30   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  72  54  79  45 /  50  90  70   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  73  58  77  48 /  40  80  80   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  74  56  78  48 /  70  90  50   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  55  79  48 /  70  90  50   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING 10Z-14Z. OVERNIGHT...SCT SHRAS AND
ISOLD TSTMS WEST OF I-35...AS LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHEN. A FEW STRONGER SHRAS/TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. PREVAILING
SHRAS IN THE DRT TAF OVERNIGHT...WITH SHRA EXPANDING INTO THE
SAT/SSF TERMINALS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND INTO THE AUS TERMINAL
AROUND DAYBREAK. COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL INCREASE 12Z-18Z ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS CONTINUING. FORCING INCREASES
18Z-00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH NUMEROUS
SHRAS AND EMBEDDED TSRAS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A JCT-HDO-COT LINE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. SAT/AUS/SSF TAFS ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AFTER
18Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ARE
STILL QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN INTO WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER
WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS WITH 40 TO 50
KTS OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST OF PW VALUES HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND IS NOW 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GO FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE VARYING THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEVER GET ESTABLISHED IN
ANY DIRECTION FOR A LONG TIME. SO EXPECTING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  71  56  78  47 /  50  90  70   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  72  53  78  45 /  50  90  70   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  74  55  78  46 /  60  90  60   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  68  52  75  43 /  60  90  60   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  70  54  76  44 /  50  90  70   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  73  49  76  43 /  70  80  30   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  72  54  79  45 /  50  90  70   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  73  58  77  48 /  40  80  80   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  74  56  78  48 /  70  90  50   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  55  79  48 /  70  90  50   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220020
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
620 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRAS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING AT 00Z ALONG AND
EAST OF A GTU TO NEAR SAT LINE. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03Z. ADDITIONAL SHRAS AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AFTER
03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FURTHER WEST...BETWEEN SAT-DRT-JCT.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AUS/SAT/SSF AFTER 03Z AND MVFR AT DRT
AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL INCREASE 12Z-18Z ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS. FORCING INCREASES 18Z-
00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH NUMEROUS SHRAS
AND EMBEDDED TSRAS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
JCT-SAT LINE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. SAT/AUS/SSF TAFS ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AFTER
18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ARE
STILL QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN INTO WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER
WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS WITH 40 TO 50
KTS OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST OF PW VALUES HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND IS NOW 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GO FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE VARYING THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEVER GET ESTABLISHED IN
ANY DIRECTION FOR A LONG TIME. SO EXPECTING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  71  56  78  47 /  50  90  70   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  72  53  78  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  74  55  78  46 /  60  90  60   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  68  52  75  43 /  60  90  60   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  70  54  76  44 /  50  90  70   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  73  49  76  43 /  70  80  30   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  72  54  79  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  58  77  48 /  40  80  80   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  74  56  78  48 /  70  90  50   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  55  79  48 /  70  90  50   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220020
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
620 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRAS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING AT 00Z ALONG AND
EAST OF A GTU TO NEAR SAT LINE. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
03Z. ADDITIONAL SHRAS AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AFTER
03Z AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FURTHER WEST...BETWEEN SAT-DRT-JCT.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AUS/SAT/SSF AFTER 03Z AND MVFR AT DRT
AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL INCREASE 12Z-18Z ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS. FORCING INCREASES 18Z-
00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH NUMEROUS SHRAS
AND EMBEDDED TSRAS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
JCT-SAT LINE. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. SAT/AUS/SSF TAFS ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA AFTER
18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ARE
STILL QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN INTO WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER
WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS WITH 40 TO 50
KTS OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST OF PW VALUES HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND IS NOW 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GO FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE VARYING THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEVER GET ESTABLISHED IN
ANY DIRECTION FOR A LONG TIME. SO EXPECTING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  71  56  78  47 /  50  90  70   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  72  53  78  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  74  55  78  46 /  60  90  60   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  68  52  75  43 /  60  90  60   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  70  54  76  44 /  50  90  70   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  73  49  76  43 /  70  80  30   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  72  54  79  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  58  77  48 /  40  80  80   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  74  56  78  48 /  70  90  50   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  55  79  48 /  70  90  50   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 212122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ARE
STILL QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN INTO WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER
WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS WITH 40 TO 50
KTS OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST OF PW VALUES HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND IS NOW 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GO FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE VARYING THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEVER GET ESTABLISHED IN
ANY DIRECTION FOR A LONG TIME. SO EXPECTING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  71  56  78  47 /  50  90  70   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  72  53  78  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  74  55  78  46 /  60  90  60   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  68  52  75  43 /  60  90  60   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  70  54  76  44 /  50  90  70   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  73  49  76  43 /  70  80  30   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  72  54  79  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  58  77  48 /  40  80  80   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  74  56  78  48 /  70  90  50   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  55  79  48 /  70  90  50   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 212122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ARE
STILL QUITE DRY...BUT MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN INTO WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER
WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING CAPE GENERALLY AROUND 1000J/KG OR LESS WITH 40 TO 50
KTS OF 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG
WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST OF PW VALUES HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND IS NOW 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GO FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE VARYING THROUGH THE WEEK AND NEVER GET ESTABLISHED IN
ANY DIRECTION FOR A LONG TIME. SO EXPECTING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  71  56  78  47 /  50  90  70   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  72  53  78  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     63  74  55  78  46 /  60  90  60   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  68  52  75  43 /  60  90  60   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  70  54  76  44 /  50  90  70   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  73  49  76  43 /  70  80  30   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  72  54  79  45 /  50  90  70   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  58  77  48 /  40  80  80   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  74  56  78  48 /  70  90  50   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  55  79  48 /  70  90  50   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211756
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1156 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP EAST OF I-35...SO WILL NOT MENTION TSRA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY WEST OF I-35...WITH LOWER RES MODELS
SHOWING THE ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE I-35 TAF SITES. WILL DEFER TO
THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS AND EXPECT CONVECTION MAINLY TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH
LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH A PREVAILING IFR
CIG FOR MOST OF THE LATER PERIODS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TO BETTER DEFINE SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE DECIDED FOR CONSISTENCY TO FOCUS THE SEVERE THREAT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IN VIS AND CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID DAY. KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...BR SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS TO AT LEAST MVFR.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT KAUS SO INCLUDED PROB30 LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR PLANNING PURPOSES BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  70  55  76  47 /  50 100  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  71  53  77  45 /  50 100  30  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  73  53  77  47 /  50  80  20  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  68  51  74  43 /  50 100  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  69  53  75  45 /  50 100  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  73  48  75  44 /  50  60  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  72  52  77  46 /  50  90  20  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  74  57  76  48 /  30  90  60  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  74  54  77  48 /  50  70  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  53  77  48 /  50  70  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211756
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1156 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP EAST OF I-35...SO WILL NOT MENTION TSRA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION FORMING MAINLY WEST OF I-35...WITH LOWER RES MODELS
SHOWING THE ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE I-35 TAF SITES. WILL DEFER TO
THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS AND EXPECT CONVECTION MAINLY TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. WITH INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH
LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH A PREVAILING IFR
CIG FOR MOST OF THE LATER PERIODS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TO BETTER DEFINE SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE DECIDED FOR CONSISTENCY TO FOCUS THE SEVERE THREAT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IN VIS AND CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID DAY. KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...BR SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS TO AT LEAST MVFR.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT KAUS SO INCLUDED PROB30 LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR PLANNING PURPOSES BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  70  55  76  47 /  50 100  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  71  53  77  45 /  50 100  30  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  73  53  77  47 /  50  80  20  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  68  51  74  43 /  50 100  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  74  50  77  47 /  40  50  10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  69  53  75  45 /  50 100  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  73  48  75  44 /  50  60  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  72  52  77  46 /  50  90  20  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  74  57  76  48 /  30  90  60  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  74  54  77  48 /  50  70  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  75  53  77  48 /  50  70  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211509
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
909 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO BETTER DEFINE SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE DECIDED FOR CONSISTENCY TO FOCUS THE SEVERE THREAT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IN VIS AND CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID DAY. KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...BR SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS TO AT LEAST MVFR.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT KAUS SO INCLUDED PROB30 LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR PLANNING PURPOSES BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  63  70  55  76 /  50  50 100  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  62  71  53  77 /  50  50 100  30  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  64  73  53  77 /  50  50  80  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  61  68  51  74 /  30  50 100  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  62  74  50  77 /  -   40  50  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  62  69  53  75 /  50  50 100  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  62  73  48  75 /  20  50  60  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  63  72  52  77 /  50  50  90  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  63  74  57  76 /  60  30  90  60  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  65  74  54  77 /  30  50  70  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  65  75  53  77 /  30  50  70  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211509
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
909 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO BETTER DEFINE SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE DECIDED FOR CONSISTENCY TO FOCUS THE SEVERE THREAT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IN VIS AND CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID DAY. KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...BR SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS TO AT LEAST MVFR.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT KAUS SO INCLUDED PROB30 LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR PLANNING PURPOSES BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  63  70  55  76 /  50  50 100  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  62  71  53  77 /  50  50 100  30  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  64  73  53  77 /  50  50  80  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  61  68  51  74 /  30  50 100  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  62  74  50  77 /  -   40  50  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  62  69  53  75 /  50  50 100  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  62  73  48  75 /  20  50  60  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  63  72  52  77 /  50  50  90  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  63  74  57  76 /  60  30  90  60  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  65  74  54  77 /  30  50  70  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  65  75  53  77 /  30  50  70  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IN VIS AND CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID DAY. KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...BR SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS TO AT LEAST MVFR.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT KAUS SO INCLUDED PROB30 LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR PLANNING PURPOSES BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  63  70  55  76 /  50  50 100  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  62  71  53  77 /  50  50 100  30  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  64  73  53  77 /  50  50  80  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  61  68  51  74 /  30  50 100  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  62  74  50  77 /  -   40  50  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  62  69  53  75 /  50  50 100  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  62  73  48  75 /  20  50  60  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  63  72  52  77 /  50  50  90  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  63  74  57  76 /  60  30  90  60  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  65  74  54  77 /  30  50  70  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  65  75  53  77 /  30  50  70  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PLENTIFUL RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES IN VIS AND CIG
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE ALL TERMINALS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
CIGS BY MID DAY. KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...BR SHOULD
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS TO AT LEAST MVFR.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT KAUS SO INCLUDED PROB30 LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR PLANNING PURPOSES BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  63  70  55  76 /  50  50 100  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  62  71  53  77 /  50  50 100  30  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  64  73  53  77 /  50  50  80  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  61  68  51  74 /  30  50 100  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  62  74  50  77 /  -   40  50  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  62  69  53  75 /  50  50 100  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  62  73  48  75 /  20  50  60  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  63  72  52  77 /  50  50  90  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  63  74  57  76 /  60  30  90  60  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  65  74  54  77 /  30  50  70  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  65  75  53  77 /  30  50  70  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211009
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  63  70  53  76 /  40  30 100  20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  62  72  51  76 /  40  30 100  20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  63  72  53  77 /  40  30  80  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  61  68  50  73 /  30  40 100  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  62  74  50  76 /  10  30  50  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  62  69  52  74 /  40  40 100  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  62  72  47  75 /  20  30  60  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  62  71  52  76 /  40  30  90  20   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  63  74  56  75 /  50  30  90  30   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  65  73  52  76 /  30  30  70  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  65  74  51  76 /  30  30  70  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211009
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SSW IN
THE LOWEST 4 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON MOST GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE BACKING THE WINDS TO THE SSE AND INCREASING THE LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. THE BACKING OF THE WIND AND INCREASING OF THE SPEED WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PUSH OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NOSE OF THE INCREASING THETA-E VALUES WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWEST
TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM AND THEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU BY MIDNIGHT. POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IS A DIRECT
MEASURE OF INCREASING TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE WHICH IS LIFT. THIS
LIFT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON ISENTROPIC CHARTS ON CONSTANT THETA
SURFACES. EXPECT ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT ON
ISENTROPIC CHARTS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW
IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO...ENTERING WEST TEXAS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO EITHER A NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A NEGATIVE TILT TO AN UPPER TROUGH IS MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMMENCES AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT OF THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR CWA AS IS
EVIDENT BY THE PEAK TROPOPAUSE FOLD TO 430 MB OVER SAN ANTONIO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF IF NOT ALL THE CWA. THE QUESTION THEN
TURNS TO THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ANY MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT COME INTO PLAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND 750
TO 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO 40 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY AND WHAT EFFECT
THAT WILL HAVE ON SEVERE CHANCES. IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF A
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE THE PEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES. NEVERTHELESS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL
BE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SHERB INDEX
IS A FORECAST TOOL TO HELP WITH THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS
AND CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES ARE ABOVE 1.0 WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A QLCS OR INDIVIDUAL
LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND CAN SOMEWHAT BE SEEN ON
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY AND A FOCUSED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
AREA TO EXPECT ANYTHING GREATER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST PRETTY RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DRY WEST
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THIS WILL END THINGS. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM WHICH IS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS AROUND 6 PM WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...BUT THE NAM 850 WINDS ARE UNREALISTIC. IT KEEPS THE
WEST WIND SHIFT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB LOW...WHILE THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE THE WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH IS MORE REALISTIC.

THE LAST THING TO FOCUS ON IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL UP NICELY IN THAT CORRIDOR
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. PW VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 OR ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE REST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEST WINDS WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE A WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND WILL SEND A DRY FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY MORNING COOLING THINGS OFF ONCE AGAIN. THE REST
OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S. THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY AND SEASONAL.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  63  70  53  76 /  40  30 100  20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  62  72  51  76 /  40  30 100  20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  63  72  53  77 /  40  30  80  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  61  68  50  73 /  30  40 100  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  62  74  50  76 /  10  30  50  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  62  69  52  74 /  40  40 100  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  62  72  47  75 /  20  30  60  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  62  71  52  76 /  40  30  90  20   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  63  74  56  75 /  50  30  90  30   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  65  73  52  76 /  30  30  70  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  65  74  51  76 /  30  30  70  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29








000
FXUS64 KEWX 210540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED OVER AUS...AND 06Z AUS TAF REFLECTS PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPO -DZ. ELSEWHERE...IFR
CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF A
HDO-ERV-BMQ...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO LIFR
AND VISIBILITIES IFR OVERNIGHT. STRATUS HAS YET TO REACH THE DRT
TERMINAL...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESSION.
06Z DRT TAF INDICATES MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER DRT AROUND 08Z
WITH LIFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISE
TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 17Z...AND VFR AT DRT AROUND
19Z...BUT REMAIN MVFR ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. BESIDES -DZ IN AUS OVERNIGHT...A FEW ISOLD SHRAS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.
ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 POSSIBLY
WORKING WEST TOWARD DRT FRI EVENING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FRIDAY`S
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS ARE
EVEN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIX HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON TO 6 PM
FOR ORGANIZED CELLS TO FORM AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  72  63  70  53 /  30  40  30 100  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  73  62  72  51 /  30  40  30 100  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  74  63  72  53 /  30  40  30  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  71  61  68  50 /  20  30  40 100  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  71  62  74  50 /  -   10  30  50  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  71  62  69  52 /  30  40  40 100  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  72  62  72  47 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  73  62  71  52 /  30  40  30  90  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  63  74  56 /  50  50  30  90  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  72  65  73  52 /  20  30  30  70  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  74  65  74  51 /  20  30  30  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 210540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPED QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED OVER AUS...AND 06Z AUS TAF REFLECTS PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPO -DZ. ELSEWHERE...IFR
CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF A
HDO-ERV-BMQ...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO LIFR
AND VISIBILITIES IFR OVERNIGHT. STRATUS HAS YET TO REACH THE DRT
TERMINAL...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESSION.
06Z DRT TAF INDICATES MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER DRT AROUND 08Z
WITH LIFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISE
TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 17Z...AND VFR AT DRT AROUND
19Z...BUT REMAIN MVFR ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON. BESIDES -DZ IN AUS OVERNIGHT...A FEW ISOLD SHRAS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.
ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 POSSIBLY
WORKING WEST TOWARD DRT FRI EVENING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FRIDAY`S
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS ARE
EVEN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIX HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON TO 6 PM
FOR ORGANIZED CELLS TO FORM AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  72  63  70  53 /  30  40  30 100  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  73  62  72  51 /  30  40  30 100  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  74  63  72  53 /  30  40  30  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  71  61  68  50 /  20  30  40 100  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  71  62  74  50 /  -   10  30  50  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  71  62  69  52 /  30  40  40 100  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  72  62  72  47 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  73  62  71  52 /  30  40  30  90  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  63  74  56 /  50  50  30  90  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  72  65  73  52 /  20  30  30  70  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  74  65  74  51 /  20  30  30  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 202356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF A
CZT-ERV-GTU LINE...INCLUDING AUS/SAT TERMINALS...AND WILL EXPAND
WEST THROUGH THE EVENING REACHING DRT AROUND 04Z. PATCHY -RA AND
ISOLATED SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35...AND IMPACT THE AUS TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY REACH IFR AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AROUND 05Z-06Z...ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN BR. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT STRATUS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT...
WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AT
AUS/SAT/SSF/DRT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 17Z.
CEILINGS EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AGAIN AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VFR AT
DRT AROUND 18Z FRI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FRIDAY`S
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS ARE
EVEN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIX HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON TO 6 PM
FOR ORGANIZED CELLS TO FORM AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  63  70  53 /  30  40  30 100  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  62  72  51 /  30  40  30 100  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  74  63  72  53 /  30  40  30  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  71  61  68  50 /  20  30  40 100  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  71  62  74  50 /  -   10  30  50  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  71  62  69  52 /  30  40  40 100  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  72  62  72  47 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  73  62  71  52 /  30  40  30  90  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  73  63  74  56 /  50  50  30  90  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  65  73  52 /  20  30  30  70  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  74  65  74  51 /  20  30  30  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 202356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF A
CZT-ERV-GTU LINE...INCLUDING AUS/SAT TERMINALS...AND WILL EXPAND
WEST THROUGH THE EVENING REACHING DRT AROUND 04Z. PATCHY -RA AND
ISOLATED SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35...AND IMPACT THE AUS TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY REACH IFR AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AROUND 05Z-06Z...ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN BR. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT STRATUS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT...
WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AT
AUS/SAT/SSF/DRT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 17Z.
CEILINGS EVENTUALLY BECOME MVFR AGAIN AT AUS/SAT/SSF AND VFR AT
DRT AROUND 18Z FRI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FRIDAY`S
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS ARE
EVEN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIX HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON TO 6 PM
FOR ORGANIZED CELLS TO FORM AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  63  70  53 /  30  40  30 100  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  62  72  51 /  30  40  30 100  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  74  63  72  53 /  30  40  30  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  71  61  68  50 /  20  30  40 100  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  71  62  74  50 /  -   10  30  50  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  71  62  69  52 /  30  40  40 100  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  72  62  72  47 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  73  62  71  52 /  30  40  30  90  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  73  63  74  56 /  50  50  30  90  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  65  73  52 /  20  30  30  70  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  74  65  74  51 /  20  30  30  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 202130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FRIDAY`S
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS ARE
EVEN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIX HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON TO 6 PM
FOR ORGANIZED CELLS TO FORM AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  63  70  53 /  30  40  30 100  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  62  72  51 /  30  40  30 100  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  74  63  72  53 /  30  40  30  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  71  61  68  50 /  20  30  40 100  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  71  62  74  50 /  -   10  30  50  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  71  62  69  52 /  30  40  40 100  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  72  62  72  47 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  73  62  71  52 /  30  40  30  90  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  73  63  74  56 /  50  50  30  90  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  65  73  52 /  20  30  30  70  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  74  65  74  51 /  20  30  30  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00










000
FXUS64 KEWX 202130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FRIDAY`S
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH MID 70S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS ARE
EVEN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIX HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON TO 6 PM
FOR ORGANIZED CELLS TO FORM AND TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S FOR HIGHS AND MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  63  70  53 /  30  40  30 100  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  62  72  51 /  30  40  30 100  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  74  63  72  53 /  30  40  30  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  71  61  68  50 /  20  30  40 100  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  71  62  74  50 /  -   10  30  50  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  71  62  69  52 /  30  40  40 100  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  72  62  72  47 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  73  62  71  52 /  30  40  30  90  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  73  63  74  56 /  50  50  30  90  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  65  73  52 /  20  30  30  70  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  74  65  74  51 /  20  30  30  70  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00











000
FXUS64 KEWX 201812
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1212 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP PUMPING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE MVFR/IFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. THE FOG/CIG AT DRT IS ERODING RAPIDLY AND
THEY WILL BE VFR WITHIN THE HOUR. EXPECTING MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST
OF TODAY. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FIRST FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA FROM NAM12 AND GFS40 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGE HAIL FOLLOWED BY
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES. KEEP
CHECKING OUR FORECAST PERIODICALLY FOR NEW WEATHER UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LATE ARRIVING BUT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SKIES. LOW MVFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN TODAY IS NON-ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHOWERS AND NOT
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  73  63  73  54 /  30  40  40  80  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  62  73  52 /  30  40  40  80  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  73  63  74  53 /  20  40  40  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  71  61  70  50 /  20  30  40  80  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  70  62  75  50 /  -   10  30  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  72  61  70  52 /  30  40  40  80  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  72  62  72  48 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  73  62  73  52 /  30  40  40  80  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  74  63  74  55 /  50  50  40  80  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  73  65  73  53 /  20  30  30  70  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  75  64  74  52 /  20  30  30  60  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201812
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1212 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP PUMPING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE MVFR/IFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. THE FOG/CIG AT DRT IS ERODING RAPIDLY AND
THEY WILL BE VFR WITHIN THE HOUR. EXPECTING MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST
OF TODAY. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FIRST FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA FROM NAM12 AND GFS40 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGE HAIL FOLLOWED BY
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES. KEEP
CHECKING OUR FORECAST PERIODICALLY FOR NEW WEATHER UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LATE ARRIVING BUT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SKIES. LOW MVFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN TODAY IS NON-ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHOWERS AND NOT
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  73  63  73  54 /  30  40  40  80  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  62  73  52 /  30  40  40  80  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  73  63  74  53 /  20  40  40  80  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  71  61  70  50 /  20  30  40  80  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  70  62  75  50 /  -   10  30  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  72  61  70  52 /  30  40  40  80  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  72  62  72  48 /  10  20  30  60  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  73  62  73  52 /  30  40  40  80  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  74  63  74  55 /  50  50  40  80  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  73  65  73  53 /  20  30  30  70  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  75  64  74  52 /  20  30  30  60  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201629 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST
OF TODAY. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE
FIRST FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA FROM NAM12 AND GFS40 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
PERIOD. PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGE HAIL FOLLOWED BY
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES. KEEP
CHECKING OUR FORECAST PERIODICALLY FOR NEW WEATHER UPDATES AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LATE ARRIVING BUT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SKIES. LOW MVFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN TODAY IS NON-ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHOWERS AND NOT
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  61  73  63  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  59  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  60  73  63  74 /  20  20  40  40  80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  58  71  61  70 /  20  20  30  40  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  55  70  62  75 /   0  -   10  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  59  72  61  70 /  20  30  40  40  80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  58  72  62  72 /  20  10  20  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  60  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  62  74  63  74 /  30  50  50  40  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  61  73  65  73 /  20  20  30  30  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  61  75  64  74 /  20  20  30  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201107
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LATE ARRIVING BUT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SKIES. LOW MVFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN TODAY IS NON-ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHOWERS AND NOT
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  61  73  63  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  59  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  60  73  63  74 /  20  20  40  40  80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  58  71  61  70 /  20  20  30  40  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  55  70  62  75 /   0  -   10  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  59  72  61  70 /  20  30  40  40  80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  58  72  62  72 /  20  10  20  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  60  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  62  74  63  74 /  30  50  50  40  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  61  73  65  73 /  20  20  30  30  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  61  75  64  74 /  20  20  30  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201107
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LATE ARRIVING BUT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SKIES. LOW MVFR WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 2KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO IFR CATEGORIES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN TODAY IS NON-ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE SHOWERS AND NOT
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  61  73  63  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  59  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  60  73  63  74 /  20  20  40  40  80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  58  71  61  70 /  20  20  30  40  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  55  70  62  75 /   0  -   10  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  59  72  61  70 /  20  30  40  40  80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  58  72  62  72 /  20  10  20  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  60  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  62  74  63  74 /  30  50  50  40  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  61  73  65  73 /  20  20  30  30  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  61  75  64  74 /  20  20  30  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03








000
FXUS64 KEWX 201002
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  61  73  63  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  59  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  60  73  63  74 /  20  20  40  40  80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  58  71  61  70 /  20  20  30  40  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  55  70  62  75 /   0  -   10  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  59  72  61  70 /  20  30  40  40  80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  58  72  62  72 /  20  10  20  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  60  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  62  74  63  74 /  30  50  50  40  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  61  73  65  73 /  20  20  30  30  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  61  75  64  74 /  20  20  30  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201002
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RAISING SFC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFTING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOSTLY EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT FIRST AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NONE OF THIS PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY HAZARDS.

BY FRIDAY...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CEILINGS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. AGAIN
THIS COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
WHILE OVERALL THE PATTERN HASNT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM RUN TO
RUN...SOME DETAILS OF ITS PROGRESSION ARE WORTH NOTING. THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER EL PASO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE SET UP FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
THAT THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A SHIFT TO A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND THUS AMPLIFIED POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND VERTICAL
SHEARING DURING MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
INITIALLY BUT THINK THAT THE LARGE SHEAR VALUES SHOULD SOMEWHAT
QUICKLY TRANSITION EVERYTHING INTO A MCS. WHEN THAT TRANSITION
OCCURS AND WHEN CI OCCURS IS THE BIG QUESTION AND IF THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SLUGGISH TO BECOME REALIZED WITH
CLOUD COVER.

TIMING AND THREATS...BEST GUESS NOW IS A LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR WITH
THE THREAT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. THREATS
WILL CONSIST OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AND COOL DAYS. THANKSGIVING DAY IS SHAPING UP TO
LOOK QUITE NICE AS DAY 7 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 70S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE MORE DEEP TROUGHING TO APPROACH BY THE WEEKEND
SO MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER.

TB3


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  61  73  63  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  59  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  60  73  63  74 /  20  20  40  40  80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  58  71  61  70 /  20  20  30  40  80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  55  70  62  75 /   0  -   10  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  59  72  61  70 /  20  30  40  40  80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  58  72  62  72 /  20  10  20  30  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  60  73  62  73 /  20  30  40  40  80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  62  74  63  74 /  30  50  50  40  80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  61  73  65  73 /  20  20  30  30  70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  61  75  64  74 /  20  20  30  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND MOS STILL INDICATING MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
SAT/SSF/AUS. PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THU AT
SAT/SSF/AUS AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SPOTS ALREADY NEAR FORECASTED LOWS
AS STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTH FROM THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING UNTIL THE STRATUS DECK
MOVES IN AND HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS A LITTLE.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES IN. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 18Z
MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  -   10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04








000
FXUS64 KEWX 200537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND MOS STILL INDICATING MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
SAT/SSF/AUS. PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THU AT
SAT/SSF/AUS AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SPOTS ALREADY NEAR FORECASTED LOWS
AS STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTH FROM THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING UNTIL THE STRATUS DECK
MOVES IN AND HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS A LITTLE.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES IN. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 18Z
MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  -   10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200334
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SPOTS ALREADY NEAR FORECASTED LOWS
AS STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTH FROM THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING UNTIL THE STRATUS DECK
MOVES IN AND HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS A LITTLE.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES IN. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 18Z
MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CIRRUS. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SAT/SSF/AUS.
PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  -   10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200334
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SPOTS ALREADY NEAR FORECASTED LOWS
AS STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTH FROM THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING UNTIL THE STRATUS DECK
MOVES IN AND HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS A LITTLE.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES IN. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 18Z
MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CIRRUS. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SAT/SSF/AUS.
PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  -   10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 200334
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SPOTS ALREADY NEAR FORECASTED LOWS
AS STRATUS DECK MOVING NORTH FROM THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO KEEP FALLING UNTIL THE STRATUS DECK
MOVES IN AND HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME SPOTS A LITTLE.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES IN. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LEAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 18Z
MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CIRRUS. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SAT/SSF/AUS.
PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  41  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  -   10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192345
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CIRRUS. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SAT/SSF/AUS.
PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  49  68  60  74 /   0   0  20  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  45  68  59  73 /   0   0  20  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  49  68  60  74 /   0   0  20  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  45  66  57  72 /   0   0  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  45  68  54  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  46  67  59  72 /   0   0  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  46  66  58  74 /   0   0  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  68  60  73 /   0   0  20  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  50  70  61  74 /   0  10  30  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  51  66  61  74 /   0   0  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  50  67  61  76 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192345
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CIRRUS. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
OVER SAT/SSF/DRT/AUS 09Z-13Z. MIX OF BR MAY ALSO PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES. A BKN-OVC MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN THE CWA THU AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SAT/SSF/AUS.
PATCHY -RA AND ISOLD -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  49  68  60  74 /   0   0  20  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  45  68  59  73 /   0   0  20  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  49  68  60  74 /   0   0  20  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  45  66  57  72 /   0   0  20  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  45  68  54  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  46  67  59  72 /   0   0  20  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  46  66  58  74 /   0   0  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  48  68  60  73 /   0   0  20  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  50  70  61  74 /   0  10  30  50  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  51  66  61  74 /   0   0  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  50  67  61  76 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192158
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192158
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  30  40  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  59  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     49  68  60  74  63 /   0  20  20  40  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  57  72  61 /   0  20  20  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  68  54  71  61 /   0   0  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  67  59  72  62 /   0  20  30  40  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  66  58  74  62 /   0  20  10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  68  60  73  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  70  61  74  64 /  10  30  50  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       51  66  61  74  65 /   0  20  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  67  61  76  65 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 191724 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z-11Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. FROM 12Z-16Z WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
FOG EXISTS AND AT THIS TIME THINKING MVFR VISIBILITIES...BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS. FOG COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER 16Z THURSDAY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
SMALL VFR CLOUD DECK QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES...BUT
HAS SINCED MOVED EAST. COULD STILL SEE THESE VFR CLOUDS COME BACK
AND WILL JUST MENTION FEW040/SCT040 TO BEGIN THE TAFS. WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY FOR THE I-35 SITES. FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION MVFR VIS/CIGS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WAS ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET CO-LOCATED WITH GOOD 250MB DIVERGENCE. AT 18Z...THESE
FEATURES WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
DOWN TO THE GULF COASTLINE.

CAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE...IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS...LI VALUES IN THE -5 OR LOWER RANGE...AND A VERY MOIST
COLUMN ALL INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 4
RANGE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN TO THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SEVERITY WOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOWS EXIT
AND THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND COOL MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND COOL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  50  66  60  71 /   0  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  48  66  58  72 /   0  10  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  50  66  59  73 /   0  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  45  65  56  71 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  45  67  54  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  47  65  58  71 /   0  10  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  65  57  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  49  66  59  72 /   0  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  51  68  61  73 /   0  10  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  53  66  60  73 /   0  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  52  67  60  75 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191724 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1124 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z-11Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. FROM 12Z-16Z WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
FOG EXISTS AND AT THIS TIME THINKING MVFR VISIBILITIES...BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. AFTER 00Z
WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS. FOG COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER 16Z THURSDAY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
SMALL VFR CLOUD DECK QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES...BUT
HAS SINCED MOVED EAST. COULD STILL SEE THESE VFR CLOUDS COME BACK
AND WILL JUST MENTION FEW040/SCT040 TO BEGIN THE TAFS. WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY FOR THE I-35 SITES. FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION MVFR VIS/CIGS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WAS ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET CO-LOCATED WITH GOOD 250MB DIVERGENCE. AT 18Z...THESE
FEATURES WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
DOWN TO THE GULF COASTLINE.

CAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE...IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS...LI VALUES IN THE -5 OR LOWER RANGE...AND A VERY MOIST
COLUMN ALL INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 4
RANGE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN TO THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SEVERITY WOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOWS EXIT
AND THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND COOL MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND COOL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  50  66  60  71 /   0  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  48  66  58  72 /   0  10  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  50  66  59  73 /   0  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  45  65  56  71 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  45  67  54  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  47  65  58  71 /   0  10  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  65  57  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  49  66  59  72 /   0  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  51  68  61  73 /   0  10  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  53  66  60  73 /   0  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  52  67  60  75 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191704 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WE HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UPWARD FOR MOST
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SKY COVER HAS BEEN DECREASED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
SMALL VFR CLOUD DECK QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES...BUT
HAS SINCED MOVED EAST. COULD STILL SEE THESE VFR CLOUDS COME BACK
AND WILL JUST MENTION FEW040/SCT040 TO BEGIN THE TAFS. WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY FOR THE I-35 SITES. FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION MVFR VIS/CIGS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WAS ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET CO-LOCATED WITH GOOD 250MB DIVERGENCE. AT 18Z...THESE
FEATURES WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
DOWN TO THE GULF COASTLINE.

CAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE...IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS...LI VALUES IN THE -5 OR LOWER RANGE...AND A VERY MOIST
COLUMN ALL INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 4
RANGE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN TO THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SEVERITY WOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOWS EXIT
AND THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND COOL MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND COOL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  50  66  60  71 /   0  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  48  66  58  72 /   0  10  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  50  66  59  73 /   0  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  45  65  56  71 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  45  67  54  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  47  65  58  71 /   0  10  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  65  57  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  49  66  59  72 /   0  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  51  68  61  73 /   0  10  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  53  66  60  73 /   0  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  52  67  60  75 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 191704 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WE HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE ALSO TRENDED WIND SPEEDS UPWARD FOR MOST
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. SKY COVER HAS BEEN DECREASED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FINALLY...DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
SMALL VFR CLOUD DECK QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES...BUT
HAS SINCED MOVED EAST. COULD STILL SEE THESE VFR CLOUDS COME BACK
AND WILL JUST MENTION FEW040/SCT040 TO BEGIN THE TAFS. WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY FOR THE I-35 SITES. FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION MVFR VIS/CIGS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WAS ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET CO-LOCATED WITH GOOD 250MB DIVERGENCE. AT 18Z...THESE
FEATURES WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
DOWN TO THE GULF COASTLINE.

CAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE...IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS...LI VALUES IN THE -5 OR LOWER RANGE...AND A VERY MOIST
COLUMN ALL INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 4
RANGE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN TO THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SEVERITY WOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOWS EXIT
AND THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND COOL MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND COOL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  50  66  60  71 /   0  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  48  66  58  72 /   0  10  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  50  66  59  73 /   0  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  45  65  56  71 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  45  67  54  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  47  65  58  71 /   0  10  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  47  65  57  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  49  66  59  72 /   0  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  51  68  61  73 /   0  10  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  53  66  60  73 /   0  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  52  67  60  75 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SMALL VFR CLOUD DECK QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES...BUT
HAS SINCED MOVED EAST. COULD STILL SEE THESE VFR CLOUDS COME BACK
AND WILL JUST MENTION FEW040/SCT040 TO BEGIN THE TAFS. WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY FOR THE I-35 SITES. FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION MVFR VIS/CIGS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WAS ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET CO-LOCATED WITH GOOD 250MB DIVERGENCE. AT 18Z...THESE
FEATURES WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
DOWN TO THE GULF COASTLINE.

CAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE...IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS...LI VALUES IN THE -5 OR LOWER RANGE...AND A VERY MOIST
COLUMN ALL INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 4
RANGE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN TO THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SEVERITY WOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOWS EXIT
AND THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND COOL MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND COOL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  50  66  60  71 /   0  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  48  66  58  72 /   0  10  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  50  66  59  73 /   0  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  45  65  56  71 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  45  67  54  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  47  65  58  71 /   0  10  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  47  65  57  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  49  66  59  72 /   0  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  51  68  61  73 /   0  10  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  53  66  60  73 /   0  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  52  67  60  75 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SMALL VFR CLOUD DECK QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE I-35 TAF SITES...BUT
HAS SINCED MOVED EAST. COULD STILL SEE THESE VFR CLOUDS COME BACK
AND WILL JUST MENTION FEW040/SCT040 TO BEGIN THE TAFS. WEAK
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY FOR THE I-35 SITES. FOR NOW WILL
JUST MENTION MVFR VIS/CIGS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BEGIN A TREND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BETTER LIFT IS INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WAS ON THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
H5 JET CO-LOCATED WITH GOOD 250MB DIVERGENCE. AT 18Z...THESE
FEATURES WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
DOWN TO THE GULF COASTLINE.

CAPE VALUES IN THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE...IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM
HODOGRAPHS...LI VALUES IN THE -5 OR LOWER RANGE...AND A VERY MOIST
COLUMN ALL INDICATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 4
RANGE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE GIVEN TO THIS
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE AREA OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
SEVERITY WOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY...ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS UPPER LOWS EXIT
AND THE CWA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND COOL MONDAYS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S BUT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AND COOL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  50  66  60  71 /   0  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  48  66  58  72 /   0  10  30  40  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  50  66  59  73 /   0  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  45  65  56  71 /   0  10  20  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  45  67  54  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  47  65  58  71 /   0  10  30  40  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  47  65  57  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  49  66  59  72 /   0  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  51  68  61  73 /   0  10  30  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  53  66  60  73 /   0  10  20  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  52  67  60  75 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03








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