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000
FXUS64 KEWX 020836
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT...EAST
OF I-35. CONVECTION INITIATION HAS BEEN ALONG 925-850MB BOUNDARY
AND BEEN ENHANCED BY STEEPER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. FARTHER WEST
AND NORTHWEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WAS GENERATING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
WINTER GARDEN AREA CLOSER TO 850MB FRONT. TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND
HRRR SUGGEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR FROM 09Z-15Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...
SO CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER AND A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
PRODUCING HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LARGER SCALE ASCENT MOVES
EAST AND 850MB BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH.

MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTH WIND. HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL...ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S
ELSEWHERE. CLEARING TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING
NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

BY LATE FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP FARTHER EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE RIDGE DAMPENS AND PULLS AWAY AND THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST ADVANCES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  54  76  54  82 /  50  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  52  75  51  81 /  50  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  53  77  51  82 /  50  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  50  74  52  81 /  40  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  55  81  57  85 /  40  10   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  51  74  52  80 /  40  10   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  53  79  51  84 /  50  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  53  76  52  81 /  50  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  55  75  52  80 /  40  10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  54  77  53  83 /  50  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  56  79  54  83 /  50  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 020526 AAD
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION.../06Z UPDATE/
CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35 LATE THIS
EVENING. KAUS WILL BE THE MAIN TERMINAL IMPACTED AND THAT SHOULD
BE DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE OTHER SITES SINCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
SLIPS SOUTH. VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AT KDRT DURING THE 12Z-15Z PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
EXPECTING NORTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
AFTER 15Z WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS. AFTER 03/00Z NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND BECOME EASTERLY AT KDRT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE... /REMOVED POPS NEAR I-35 THIS EVENING/

STABLE AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING
AS SEEN BY CLOUD IMAGERY AND THE NORTHERLY VAD WINDS UP TO AROUND
900 MB. AN UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION LATE TONIGHT...AND MOST MODEL DATA
SHOWS QPF CONCENTRATING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MORE SCATTERED
QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. NO RAIN IS FORECAST
OVER AUS/SAT THROUGH 06Z...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED FOR
LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL BEND MOVING
SLOWLY INLAND. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING COINCIDE. TSRA HAS
MOVED EAST OF KDRT. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED VCSH THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THERE. WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. LOW END VFR CIGS
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND KDRT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS AND HAVE GONE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THERE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
STORM WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
VALE VERDE COUNTY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT.

IF ANY STORMS DO FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND
40 TO 50 KNOTS SHEAR ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED
WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS MODELS SHOW AN
850 MB FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL ACT AS YET ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO TEXAS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM
WEATHER. A WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
LAGGING A BIT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  71  54  76  54 /  30  40  10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  71  52  75  51 /  30  40  10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  72  53  76  52 /  30  40  10  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  68  50  74  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  55  80  57 /  50  40  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  70  51  74  53 /  40  40  10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  72  52  79  51 /  40  40  10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  72  53  75  52 /  30  40  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  55  75  53 /  40  50  20  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  55  77  54 /  30  40  10  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  74  57  78  54 /  30  50  10  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 020031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
731 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE... /REMOVED POPS NEAR I-35 THIS EVENING/

STABLE AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING
AS SEEN BY CLOUD IMAGERY AND THE NORTHERLY VAD WINDS UP TO AROUND
900 MB. AN UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION LATE TONIGHT...AND MOST MODEL DATA
SHOWS QPF CONCENTRATING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MORE SCATTERED
QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. NO RAIN IS FORECAST
OVER AUS/SAT THROUGH 06Z...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED FOR
LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL BEND MOVING
SLOWLY INLAND. ISOLATED STRONG CELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING COINCIDE. TSRA HAS
MOVED EAST OF KDRT. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED VCSH THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THERE. WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. LOW END VFR CIGS
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND KDRT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS AND HAVE GONE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THERE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
STORM WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
VALE VERDE COUNTY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT.

IF ANY STORMS DO FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND
40 TO 50 KNOTS SHEAR ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED
WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS MODELS SHOW AN
850 MB FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL ACT AS YET ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO TEXAS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM
WEATHER. A WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
LAGGING A BIT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  71  54  76  54 /  30  40  10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  71  52  75  51 /  30  40  10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  72  53  76  52 /  30  40  10  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  68  50  74  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  55  80  57 /  50  40  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  70  51  74  53 /  40  40  10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  72  52  79  51 /  40  40  10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  72  53  75  52 /  30  40  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  55  75  53 /  40  50  20  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  55  77  54 /  30  40  10  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  74  57  78  54 /  30  50  10  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING COINCIDE. TSRA HAS
MOVED EAST OF KDRT. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED VCSH THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THERE. WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. LOW END VFR CIGS
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND KDRT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS AND HAVE GONE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THERE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
STORM WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
VALE VERDE COUNTY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT.

IF ANY STORMS DO FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND
40 TO 50 KNOTS SHEAR ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED
WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS MODELS SHOW AN
850 MB FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL ACT AS YET ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO TEXAS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM
WEATHER. A WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
LAGGING A BIT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  71  54  76  54 /  40  40  10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  71  52  75  51 /  40  40  10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  72  53  76  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  68  50  74  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  55  80  57 /  50  40  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  70  51  74  53 /  40  40  10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  72  52  79  51 /  40  40  10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  72  53  75  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  55  75  53 /  50  50  20  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  55  77  54 /  40  40  10  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  74  57  78  54 /  40  50  10  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD FORCING COINCIDE. TSRA HAS
MOVED EAST OF KDRT. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED VCSH THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THERE. WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST AND HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. LOW END VFR CIGS
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES ARE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND KDRT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS AND HAVE GONE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THERE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT NLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
STORM WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
VALE VERDE COUNTY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT.

IF ANY STORMS DO FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND
40 TO 50 KNOTS SHEAR ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED
WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS MODELS SHOW AN
850 MB FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL ACT AS YET ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO TEXAS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM
WEATHER. A WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
LAGGING A BIT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  71  54  76  54 /  40  40  10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  71  52  75  51 /  40  40  10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  72  53  76  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  68  50  74  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  55  80  57 /  50  40  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  70  51  74  53 /  40  40  10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  72  52  79  51 /  40  40  10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  72  53  75  52 /  40  40  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  55  75  53 /  50  50  20  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  72  55  77  54 /  40  40  10  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  74  57  78  54 /  40  50  10  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011946
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE A BREAK IN THE
STORM WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
VALE VERDE COUNTY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND A TROUGH MOVING FROM NEW MEXICO NE TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS A BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
FRONT STALLED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A DECENT INVERSION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO THE FRONT.

IF ANY STORMS DO FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE OR THE COASTAL PLAINS
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE OF 2000 J/KG AND
40 TO 50 KNOTS SHEAR ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE ELEVATED
WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS MODELS SHOW AN
850 MB FRONT PUSHING DOWN ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WILL ACT AS YET ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO TEXAS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. MORNING LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM
WEATHER. A WARM UP BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY REACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF
LAGGING A BIT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  71  54  76 /  20  40  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  61  71  52  75 /  20  40  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  62  72  53  76 /  20  40  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  55  68  50  74 /  10  40  40  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  59  71  55  80 /  40  50  40  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  70  51  74 /  20  40  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  61  72  52  79 /  20  40  40  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  72  53  75 /  20  40  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  63  73  55  75 /  30  50  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  72  55  77 /  20  40  40  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  63  74  57  78 /  20  40  50  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011713
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO AND WILL
MENTION VCSH IN TAFDRT THEN TRANSITION TO VCTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF SITES...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. FUTURE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF PROBABILITIES INCREASE.
CEILINGS ARE NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD AND SHOULD BECOME VFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MVFR AGAIN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 15-25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AT CRP SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WHICH
HAS LEAD TO LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TEXAS COAST...AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR/RAP/4KM
NAM ALL SHOW SOME WEAK TO FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT VCT. BASED ON THIS
HAVE TRIMMED BACK AND LOWERED POPS BY 10% ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SHOW
ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...SOME OF WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF SURFACE TO 6KM
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TRENDED HOURLY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT IN GENERAL FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AND GUSTY UP TO 25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AT DRT AND EARLY EVENING AT
AUS...SAT... AND SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING A SECONDARY
SURGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. JUST TO THE SOUTH A STATIONARY FROM
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL BEND.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS WELL AS UP THE RIO GRANDE AS MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE.
THE SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG SHARPENING
SURFACE H85 FRONT...WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DERIVED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MORE
BULLISH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING POOL OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES...GIVEN
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
CLOSE TO 50 KTS. HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
A SECOND AREA OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY POCKET POOLS ALONG FRONT.

SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FORCING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL
COUNTRY AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO SHOWERS. A POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDER WILL EXIST WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  72  54  76  54 /  40  40  10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  61  71  53  75  51 /  40  40  10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  72  55  76  52 /  40  40  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  68  51  73  52 /  40  40  10   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  71  56  79  57 /  50  40  10   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        58  69  52  74  53 /  40  40  10   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  72  54  78  52 /  40  40  10   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  71  55  75  52 /  40  40  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   63  73  56  75  53 /  50  50  20  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  72  56  77  54 /  40  40  10   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  73  58  78  54 /  40  30  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011711
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AT CRP SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WHICH
HAS LEAD TO LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS. DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
TEXAS COAST...AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR/RAP/4KM
NAM ALL SHOW SOME WEAK TO FAIRLY STRONG CAP AT VCT. BASED ON THIS
HAVE TRIMMED BACK AND LOWERED POPS BY 10% ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SHOW
ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...SOME OF WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF SURFACE TO 6KM
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TRENDED HOURLY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT IN GENERAL FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AND GUSTY UP TO 25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AT DRT AND EARLY EVENING AT
AUS...SAT... AND SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING A SECONDARY
SURGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. JUST TO THE SOUTH A STATIONARY FROM
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL BEND.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS WELL AS UP THE RIO GRANDE AS MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE.
THE SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG SHARPENING
SURFACE H85 FRONT...WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DERIVED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MORE
BULLISH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING POOL OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES...GIVEN
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
CLOSE TO 50 KTS. HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
A SECOND AREA OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY POCKET POOLS ALONG FRONT.

SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FORCING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL
COUNTRY AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO SHOWERS. A POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDER WILL EXIST WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  72  54  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  61  71  53  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  62  72  55  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  56  68  51  73 /  10  40  40  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  60  71  56  79 /  40  50  40  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  69  52  74 /  20  40  40  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  62  72  54  78 /  20  40  40  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  63  73  56  75 /  30  50  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  62  72  56  77 /  20  40  40  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  64  73  58  78 /  20  40  30  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011131
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO
MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
AND GUSTY UP TO 25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AT DRT AND EARLY EVENING AT
AUS...SAT... AND SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING A SECONDARY
SURGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. JUST TO THE SOUTH A STATIONARY FROM
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL BEND.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS WELL AS UP THE RIO GRANDE AS MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE.
THE SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG SHARPENING
SURFACE H85 FRONT...WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DERIVED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MORE
BULLISH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING POOL OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES...GIVEN
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
CLOSE TO 50 KTS. HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
A SECOND AREA OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY POCKET POOLS ALONG FRONT.

SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FORCING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL
COUNTRY AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO SHOWERS. A POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDER WILL EXIST WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  72  54  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  61  71  53  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  62  72  55  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  56  68  51  73 /  10  40  40  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  60  71  56  79 /  40  50  40  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  69  52  74 /  20  40  40  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  62  72  54  78 /  20  40  40  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  63  73  56  75 /  40  50  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  62  72  56  77 /  20  40  40  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  64  73  58  78 /  20  40  30  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING A SECONDARY
SURGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. JUST TO THE SOUTH A STATIONARY FROM
WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INLAND COASTAL BEND.
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA AS WELL AS UP THE RIO GRANDE AS MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE.
THE SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HILL COUNTRY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG SHARPENING
SURFACE H85 FRONT...WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DERIVED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MORE
BULLISH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING POOL OF 2500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOP A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS VAL VERDE...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES...GIVEN
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
CLOSE TO 50 KTS. HAIL AND SATRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY
THREATS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
A SECOND AREA OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY POCKET POOLS ALONG FRONT.

SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FORCING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...HILL
COUNTRY AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...LEADING TO SHOWERS. A POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDER WILL EXIST WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

COOLER ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CWA
AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AND SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MODELS OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
POSSIBLY ADVANCING EAST INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  60  72  54  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  61  71  53  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  62  72  55  76 /  20  40  40  10   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  56  68  51  73 /  10  40  40  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  60  71  56  79 /  40  50  40  10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  69  52  74 /  20  40  40  10   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  62  72  54  78 /  20  40  40  10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  61  71  55  75 /  20  40  40  10   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  63  73  56  75 /  40  50  50  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  62  72  56  77 /  20  40  40  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  64  73  58  78 /  20  40  30  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN AROUND 10Z AND 12Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS STARTING
AT 20Z AT DRT AND AFTER 00Z AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. TSRA SHOULD
REDUCE VIS...BUT NOT AFFECT CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST...
WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO PLEASANTON LINE. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WITH NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WE
EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
MENTIONED PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WE/LL SHOW A
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD EASTWARD JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  60  72  56  75 /  20  50  40  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  61  73  56  75 /  20  50  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  63  73  57  76 /  30  50  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  57  70  53  73 /  20  50  40  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  61  72  57  78 /  20  60  40  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  71  54  73 /  20  50  40  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  64  74  56  78 /  20  50  40  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        80  62  73  56  75 /  30  50  40  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  64  75  58  75 /  40  60  50  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       81  63  72  57  76 /  20  50  40  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  65  74  59  77 /  20  50  40  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS VERY QUICKLY AND MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 20Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME THINK HIGH END
MVFR WILL PREVAIL. KDRT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL
BE E/SE 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
DEVELOPMENT LOCATION AND TIMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST...
WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO PLEASANTON LINE. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WITH NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WE
EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
MENTIONED PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WE/LL SHOW A
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD EASTWARD JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  81  60  72  56 /  10  20  50  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  81  61  73  56 /  10  20  50  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  81  63  73  57 /  10  30  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  77  57  70  53 /  -   20  50  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  84  61  72  57 /  10  20  60  40  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  78  59  71  54 /  10  20  50  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  83  64  74  56 /  -   20  50  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  80  62  73  56 /  10  30  50  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  83  64  75  58 /  20  40  60  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  81  63  72  57 /  -   20  50  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  83  65  74  59 /  -   20  50  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION.../00Z UPDATE/
VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS VERY QUICKLY AND MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 20Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME THINK HIGH END
MVFR WILL PREVAIL. KDRT SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL
BE E/SE 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY. AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
DEVELOPMENT LOCATION AND TIMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST...
WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO PLEASANTON LINE. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WITH NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WE
EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
MENTIONED PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WE/LL SHOW A
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD EASTWARD JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  81  60  72  56 /  10  20  50  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  81  61  73  56 /  10  20  50  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  81  63  73  57 /  10  30  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  77  57  70  53 /  -   20  50  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  84  61  72  57 /  10  20  60  40  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  78  59  71  54 /  10  20  50  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  83  64  74  56 /  -   20  50  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  80  62  73  56 /  10  30  50  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  83  64  75  58 /  20  40  60  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  81  63  72  57 /  -   20  50  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  83  65  74  59 /  -   20  50  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302010
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST...
WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO PLEASANTON LINE. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WITH NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WE
EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
MENTIONED PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WE/LL SHOW A
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD EASTWARD JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  81  60  72  56 /  10  20  50  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  81  61  73  56 /  10  20  50  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  81  63  73  57 /  10  30  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  77  57  70  53 /  -   20  50  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  84  61  72  57 /  10  20  60  40  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  78  59  71  54 /  10  20  50  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  83  64  74  56 /  -   20  50  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  80  62  73  56 /  10  30  50  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  83  64  75  58 /  20  40  60  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  81  63  72  57 /  -   20  50  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  83  65  74  59 /  -   20  50  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301724
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO THE AREA IN THE MORNING AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT EXACT CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE COULD
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 NEAR A COLD FRONT AND A COASTAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD A
DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. FINALLY...DEW
POINTS...WINDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND FOR THE MOMENT TERMINALS
ARE ALL VFR. EXPECTING CIG TO LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IH THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  -   10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  -   20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  61  78  58  69 /  -   10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  62  79  60  70 /  -   10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  -   10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  -   10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  20  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  -   10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301724
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO THE AREA IN THE MORNING AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT EXACT CONFIDENCE OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE COULD
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 NEAR A COLD FRONT AND A COASTAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD A
DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. FINALLY...DEW
POINTS...WINDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND FOR THE MOMENT TERMINALS
ARE ALL VFR. EXPECTING CIG TO LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IH THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  -   10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  -   20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  61  78  58  69 /  -   10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  62  79  60  70 /  -   10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  -   10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  -   10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  20  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  -   10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301527 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1027 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. WE COULD
SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 NEAR A COLD FRONT AND A COASTAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD A
DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. FINALLY...DEW
POINTS...WINDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND FOR THE MOMENT TERMINALS
ARE ALL VFR. EXPECTING CIG TO LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IH THE TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  -   10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  -   20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  61  78  58  69 /  -   10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  62  79  60  70 /  -   10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  -   10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  -   10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  20  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  -   10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  -   10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301141
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND FOR THE MOMENT TERMINALS
ARE ALL VFR. EXPECTING CIG TO LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. THEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IH THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  20  20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  61  78  58  69 /  20  10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  62  79  60  70 /  20  10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  20  10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  40  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  20  10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301013
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  20  20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  61  78  58  69 /  20  10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  62  79  60  70 /  20  10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  20  10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  40  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  20  10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301013
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE BECAUSE
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS LESSENED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH WILLIAMSON...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND GONZALES COUNTIES. PARTS OF THIS LINE MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR WIND. SO THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  20  20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  61  78  58  69 /  20  10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  62  79  60  70 /  20  10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  20  10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  40  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  20  10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300803
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING
ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A TROUGH FROM CO TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THIS FLOW WAS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR COMANCHE TO JUNCTION TO
DEL RIO AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR DALLAS TO COMANCHE TO
MIDLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE
COMPLICATED...BUT REMAIN A TROUGH AND KEEP THE FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD BE HALF WAY THROUGH OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER MEXICO AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT
THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA TUESDAY. TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE
WILL BECOME DOMINANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  20  20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  61  78  58  69 /  20  10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  62  79  60  70 /  20  10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  20  10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  40  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  20  10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300715
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ONGOING STRONG STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 5 AM. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH
OUR CWA IT IS TRIGGERING THUNDESTORMS. THUS FAR STORMS HAVE STAYED
BELOW SEVERE...BUT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE MOIST
AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY 06Z-08Z AND INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR 08Z-10Z. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING...AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY HAPPENING
BETWEEN UVA-DRT. HAVE INSERTED TEMPO TSRA IN SAT/AUS 08Z-10Z AND
VCTS 06Z-08Z AT DRT. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO IFR TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SAT/AUS...BUT REMAIN VFR AT DRT OUTSIDE OF ANY
PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT/AUS IN THE MORNING
WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 13Z
AT SAT AND 14Z-16Z NEAR AUS. NW TO NE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAY TURN BACK TO THE E AND SE AT SAT AND
DRT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  65  81  61  72 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  64  80  63  73 /  20  20  30  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  61  78  58  69 /  20  10  20  50  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  68  85  64  74 /  -   10  30  60  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  62  79  60  70 /  20  10  20  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  67  83  65  75 /  20  10  30  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  80  63  72 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  69  82  67  75 /  40  20  40  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  66  81  64  73 /  20  10  30  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  69  83  66  75 /  20  10  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300541
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND HILL COUNTRY 06Z-08Z AND INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR 08Z-10Z. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING...AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY HAPPENING
BETWEEN UVA-DRT. HAVE INSERTED TEMPO TSRA IN SAT/AUS 08Z-10Z AND
VCTS 06Z-08Z AT DRT. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO IFR TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT AT SAT/AUS...BUT REMAIN VFR AT DRT OUTSIDE OF ANY
PRECIP. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT/AUS IN THE MORNING
WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 13Z
AT SAT AND 14Z-16Z NEAR AUS. NW TO NE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MAY TURN BACK TO THE E AND SE AT SAT AND
DRT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  82  63  75 /  20  10  20  50  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  65  81  64  75 /  20  10  20  50  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  66  82  65  76 /  30  10  30  40  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  79  60  70 /  10  10  10  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  68  86  64  75 /  -   20  30  50  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  63  81  62  72 /  20  10  10  50  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  67  84  66  77 /  10  10  30  40  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  66  83  64  75 /  30  10  30  50  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  69  83  67  77 /  40  20  30  50  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  82  65  76 /  20  10  30  40  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  69  83  67  77 /  20  10  30  40  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AND WILL TRY TO EXPLAIN LATEST CONVECTIVE THINKING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FIRST...THINGS HAD BEEN SLOW GOING FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THUS
CONVECTION HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
FOCUS. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DID DEVELOP NEAR BURNET
COUNTY WHERE THE DRYLINE WAS ABLE TO BULGE OUTWARD. FARTHER
SOUTH...THERE HAS BEEN A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN HONDO AND
CASTROVILLE THAT COULD BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. SEVERAL
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO...THE WIND AT HONDO TURNED TO THE WEST AND
AFTER THIS OCCURRED...STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPED WITH THE
INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE RESULTANT SUPERCELL HAS
BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST HOUR AND HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN BEXAR
COUNTY.

THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES WITHIN THIS CELL
BUT THESE HAVE QUICKLY BEEN OVERCOME BY A SURGING RFD. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SPEED
SHEAR IS LACKING AS SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS EQUATING
TO 0-3 HELICITY VALUES NEAR 100. CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO BUT
OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW.

WITH THE LESSER AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WHEN THE FRONT MAKES
IT TO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. WE HAD CAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG ALL AFTERNOON BUT
UNTIL SOMETHING FORCES PARCELS UPWARD...NONE OF THIS CAPE WILL
EVER BE REALIZED. WITH THE INSTABILITY STILL AROUND
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
70S...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS FOR HAIL
PRODUCTION WHEN THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
WITH THE WEAKER WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE THREAT FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IS A BIT
LOWER...BUT ANY DOMINATING COLD POOLS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
HAVENT SEEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BESIDES A
FEW SHOWERS WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. WILL BEGIN THE SAN ANTONIO SITES
WITH VCSH TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT ONCE
THE FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT FORCES AIR PARCELS UPWARDS. SOME OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING ON THIS SOLUTION BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON INITIALIZATION AND THINK ITS
SOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS PLAUSIBLE. WILL MENTION
VCTS FROM 7Z-11 FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. MAY NEED TO UP THAT TO
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS LATER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOME VFR TOMORROW MORNING
AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM
NEAR SONORA BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA
TO DRYDEN LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY... WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY BACKED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS. ONCE WE LOOSE PEAK HEATING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  10  20  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  65  81  64 /  60  20  10  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  66  82  65 /  60  30  10  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  91  68  86  64 /  20  -   20  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  81  62 /  60  20  10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  67  84  66 /  40  10  10  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  64 /  60  30  10  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  83  67 /  80  40  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  67  82  65 /  50  20  10  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  69  83  67 /  50  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 292337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
HAVENT SEEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BESIDES A
FEW SHOWERS WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. WILL BEGIN THE SAN ANTONIO SITES
WITH VCSH TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT ONCE
THE FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT FORCES AIR PARCELS UPWARDS. SOME OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING ON THIS SOLUTION BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON INITIALIZATION AND THINK ITS
SOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS PLAUSIBLE. WILL MENTION
VCTS FROM 7Z-11 FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. MAY NEED TO UP THAT TO
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS LATER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOME VFR TOMORROW MORNING
AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM
NEAR SONORA BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA
TO DRYDEN LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY... WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY BACKED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS. ONCE WE LOOSE PEAK HEATING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  10  20  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  65  81  64 /  60  20  10  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  66  82  65 /  60  30  10  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  91  68  86  64 /  10  -   20  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  81  62 /  60  20  10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  67  84  66 /  40  10  10  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  64 /  60  30  10  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  83  67 /  80  40  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  67  82  65 /  50  20  10  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  69  83  67 /  50  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 292037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM
NEAR SONORA BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA
TO DRYDEN LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY... WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY BACKED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS. ONCE WE LOOSE PEAK HEATING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  10  20  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  65  81  64 /  60  20  10  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  66  82  65 /  60  30  10  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  91  68  86  64 /  10  -   20  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  81  62 /  60  20  10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  67  84  66 /  40  10  10  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  64 /  60  30  10  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  83  67 /  80  40  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  67  82  65 /  50  20  10  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  69  83  67 /  50  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291753 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A CHALLENGING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST
PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG A DRYLINE LINE. THERE IS
PLENTY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AROUND 21/22Z TO ABOUT 23Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD WITH SOME IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL PROBABLY
LOWER TO IFR /LIFR WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE I-35
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  64  82  63 /  60  30  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  82  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  87  61  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  91  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  87  62  80  61 /  50  20  10  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  65  85  65 /  40  20  10  10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  83  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  68  83  66 /  70  60  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  66  83  65 /  50  30  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  89  67  85  68 /  50  30  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291753 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A CHALLENGING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST
PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG A DRYLINE LINE. THERE IS
PLENTY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AROUND 21/22Z TO ABOUT 23Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD WITH SOME IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL PROBABLY
LOWER TO IFR /LIFR WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE I-35
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  64  82  63 /  60  30  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  82  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  87  61  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  91  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  87  62  80  61 /  50  20  10  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  65  85  65 /  40  20  10  10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  83  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  68  83  66 /  70  60  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  66  83  65 /  50  30  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  89  67  85  68 /  50  30  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  88  65  82 /  70  60  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  67  87  64  82 /  60  60  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  88  65  82 /  60  60  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  61  79 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  91  66  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  65  87  62  80 /  70  50  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  64  91  65  85 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  67  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  68  88  66  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  89  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  88  65  82 /  70  60  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  67  87  64  82 /  60  60  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  88  65  82 /  60  60  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  61  79 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  91  66  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  65  87  62  80 /  70  50  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  64  91  65  85 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  67  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  68  88  66  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  89  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





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