000
FXUS64 KEWX 241942
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON THE MCV WAS CENTERED OVER REAL COUNTY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM BURNET
SOUTHWARD TO NEW BRAUNFELS AND CAMPBELLTON. THE LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS IS LEADING
TO CELL TRAINING RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
INTERACTS WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WERE ALSO OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. THE SLOW
MOVING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROF. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 93 72 93 72 / 30 30 20 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 92 70 91 71 / 30 30 20 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 71 93 72 / 30 30 20 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 69 90 70 / 30 30 20 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 91 74 93 74 / 30 20 20 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 88 70 90 71 / 30 30 20 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 72 93 72 / 30 30 20 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 71 92 72 / 30 30 20 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 91 73 92 73 / 30 30 20 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 72 92 73 / 30 30 20 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 241802
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BANDS OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA THROUGH
19Z AND THE AUSTIN AREA THROUGH 21Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND BRIEF VSBY LOWERINGS TO 1/4 MILE
FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST TO PRODUCE HIGHER CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT AND A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH 21Z WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS DECREASING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED BY MODELS
TO BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST.
WILL FACTOR IN THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR
AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF THE MCV FROM TODAY/S COMPLEX TO LEAVE OUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR LATER IN THE TAF PERIODS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CLOUDS TO MVFR LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF
THE ADDED GROUND MOISTURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MCS NOW MOVING TO THE NE WITH A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM VANDERPOOL
TO HONDO TO PEARSALL. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITION CONVECTION FORMING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST TOTAL BLENDED PWS PRODUCT
DEPICTING PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWFA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND HIGH TEMPS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF
THE MCS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS CENTERED NEAR LA PRYOR SHOWING
CCW ROTATION INDICATIVE OF AN MCV. LATEST HI-RES MODELS MOVE THE MCV
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NE WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING. WITH TOTAL BLENDED
PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS DOWN TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDRT THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONSIN PLACE...EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS CLEAR OUT THE I-35 AREA
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
LOCAL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCS/MCV IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD TEND TO WANE TOWARD
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE MCV STALLS OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. THE MCV WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SHORT-WAVE BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 73 91 74 94 / 40 50 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 88 70 90 / 50 50 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 92 72 93 / 60 50 30 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 90 72 91 / 30 30 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 73 91 73 92 / 60 40 30 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 241535 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1035 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MCS NOW MOVING TO THE NE WITH A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM VANDERPOOL
TO HONDO TO PEARSALL. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITION CONVECTION FORMING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST TOTAL BLENDED PWS PRODUCT
DEPICTING PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWFA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND HIGH TEMPS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF
THE MCS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS CENTERED NEAR LA PRYOR SHOWING
CCW ROTATION INDICATIVE OF AN MCV. LATEST HI-RES MODELS MOVE THE MCV
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NE WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING. WITH TOTAL BLENDED
PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS DOWN TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDRT THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONSIN PLACE...EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS CLEAR OUT THE I-35 AREA
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
LOCAL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCS/MCV IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD TEND TO WANE TOWARD
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE MCV STALLS OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. THE MCV WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SHORT-WAVE BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 73 91 74 94 / 40 50 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 88 70 90 / 50 50 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 92 72 93 / 60 50 30 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 90 72 91 / 30 30 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 73 91 73 92 / 60 40 30 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 241406 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
906 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS CENTERED NEAR LA PRYOR SHOWING
CCW ROTATION INDICATIVE OF AN MCV. LATEST HI-RES MODELS MOVE THE MCV
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NE WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING. WITH TOTAL BLENDED
PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS DOWN TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDRT THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONSIN PLACE...EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS CLEAR OUT THE I-35 AREA
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
LOCAL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCS/MCV IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD TEND TO WANE TOWARD
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE MCV STALLS OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. THE MCV WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SHORT-WAVE BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 94 / 60 50 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 88 70 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 92 72 93 / 50 50 30 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 90 72 91 / 50 30 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 241144 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS DOWN TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDRT THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONSIN PLACE...EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS CLEAR OUT THE I-35 AREA
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
LOCAL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCS/MCV IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD TEND TO WANE TOWARD
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE MCV STALLS OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. THE MCV WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SHORT-WAVE BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 94 / 60 50 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 88 70 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 92 72 93 / 50 50 30 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 90 72 91 / 50 30 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
000
FXUS64 KEWX 240825
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCS/MCV IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD TEND TO WANE TOWARD
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE MCV STALLS OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. THE MCV WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SHORT-WAVE BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 94 / 50 50 30 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 92 70 92 / 50 50 30 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 92 71 93 / 50 40 30 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 87 69 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 73 91 74 94 / 60 50 20 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 88 70 90 / 60 50 30 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 92 72 93 / 50 50 30 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 91 71 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 90 72 91 / 50 30 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 91 72 92 / 50 40 30 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
000
FXUS64 KEWX 240444
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS...AND ANALYSIS OF HI-
RES MODELS SUGGESTS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO IMPACT AREA
TAF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CIG BASES TO LOWER
TO IFR AT I-35 TAF SITES IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS AND RETURNING TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SFC
WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDING WEST TO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. THE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM 500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...EAST OF A 500 TO 300 HPA LARGER SCALE TROF OVER
THE WESTERN U.S...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST TO NORTH
PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST
DATA AVAILABLE AT HAND THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z...00Z...AND SOME OF THE ECMWF DATA
AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO GO SLIGHTLY
NORTH WITH MORE RIDGING FORECAST ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD INCREASE
AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THE STORM
TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE SCALE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
WITH TIME CARRY THIS PATTERN NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM
500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND CREATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST DATA
AVAILABLE AT HAND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST AND ECMWF
DATA AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOP...AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES
AGAIN. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF
THE STORM TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 93 73 94 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 91 72 93 69 / 10 20 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 71 93 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 70 90 68 / 20 20 20 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 90 74 92 73 / 20 30 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 91 69 / 20 20 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 93 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
000
FXUS64 KEWX 240341
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDING WEST TO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT. THE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY WILL DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM 500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...EAST OF A 500 TO 300 HPA LARGER SCALE TROF OVER
THE WESTERN U.S...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST TO NORTH
PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST
DATA AVAILABLE AT HAND THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z...00Z...AND SOME OF THE ECMWF DATA
AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO GO SLIGHTLY
NORTH WITH MORE RIDGING FORECAST ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE
WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD INCREASE
AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF THE STORM
TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE SCALE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
WITH TIME CARRY THIS PATTERN NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM
500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND CREATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST DATA
AVAILABLE AT HAND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST AND ECMWF
DATA AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOP...AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES
AGAIN. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF
THE STORM TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 93 73 94 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 91 72 93 69 / 10 20 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 71 93 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 70 90 68 / 20 20 20 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 90 74 92 73 / 20 30 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 91 69 / 20 20 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 93 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 240137
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSIION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A LARGE SCALE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY
WITH TIME CARRY THIS PATTERN NORTH. A SERIES OF S/W TROFS FROM
500 TO 300 HPA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING LOWER HEIGHTS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND CREATING A SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEST PART OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST DATA
AVAILABLE AT HAND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF IH35...AS INDICATED BY 00Z MAY 24TH
MAPS AND INPUT FROM THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST AND ECMWF
DATA AVAILABLE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
SATURDAY...THEREFORE...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING NEAR AND WEST OF IH35 ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEVELOP...AS RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES
AGAIN. AS THE STORM TRACK COMES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE WEST PART OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND OVER ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS DIFFER ON
HOW LONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MOST SOLUTIONS BEYOND THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE...JUNE 1ST AND 2ND...SUGGEST THAT RIDGING COULD
INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IF
THE STORM TRACK DOES MOVE NORTH...AS FORECASTS CURRENTLY SHOW.
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 93 73 94 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 91 72 93 69 / 10 20 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 71 93 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 70 90 68 / 10 20 20 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 90 74 92 73 / 20 30 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 91 69 / 10 20 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 93 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 72 / 10 20 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25/01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 232337
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP BY 05-06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SPREAD WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 08-09Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17-18Z. SE-SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 93 73 94 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 91 72 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 71 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 70 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 76 94 73 / 20 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 91 69 / 10 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 71 / 10 10 10 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 232002
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY. FORECAST CAPE IS AROUND 2000
J/KG...SO POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SEVERE. WE HAVE
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL 10
PM. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST AIR IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATURDAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS FAR AS
I10/I37. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. THEN THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN
THE REPEATING PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND CLEARING
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 93 73 94 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 91 72 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 71 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 70 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 94 76 94 73 / 20 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 89 71 91 69 / 10 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 74 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 74 91 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 92 71 / 10 10 10 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 231912
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
212 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. INSTABILITY IS HIGH OUT WEST AND ANY STORMS THAT
FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE. HAVE ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR STORMS MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MVFR CIGS WERE GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND WILL BECOME VFR MOST ALL AREAS BY 18Z WITH SCT-BKN CU AT 3-4 THSD
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SCT CU AT 4-5 THSD FEET AFTER 22Z. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPING AT 05-06Z ACROSS THE I35 CORRIDOR AND SPREADING WEST
TO KDRT AFTER 08Z. MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THRU 17-18Z FRIDAY. S-SELY
SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND 5-12 KNOTS AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR
CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT VFR CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/HZ WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO
12 KTS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 93 72 93 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 91 71 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 94 75 93 73 / 20 20 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 92 71 / 10 10 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 72 91 70 / 10 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 73 90 71 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 231713
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1213 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. MVFR CIGS WERE GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND WILL BECOME VFR MOST ALL AREAS BY 18Z WITH SCT-BKN CU AT 3-4 THSD
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SCT CU AT 4-5 THSD FEET AFTER 22Z. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPING AT 05-06Z ACROSS THE I35 CORRIDOR AND SPREADING WEST
TO KDRT AFTER 08Z. MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THRU 17-18Z FRIDAY. S-SELY
SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND 5-12 KNOTS AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR
CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT VFR CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/HZ WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO
12 KTS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 93 72 93 71 / 0 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 91 71 92 69 / 0 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 70 92 70 / 0 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 69 89 68 / 0 10 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 94 75 93 73 / 0 20 20 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 90 69 / 0 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 92 71 / 0 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 72 91 70 / 0 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 73 90 71 / 0 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 92 73 91 72 / 0 10 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 73 91 71 / 0 10 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
000
FXUS64 KEWX 231140
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING IFR
CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT VFR CUMULUS AND CIRRUS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PATCHY BR/HZ WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO
12 KTS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 93 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 71 91 71 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 92 70 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 89 69 89 / 0 0 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 94 75 93 / 0 0 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 89 70 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 94 73 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 72 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 91 73 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 230815
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 08Z THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTED STRATUS OVERSPREADING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
A FEW AFTERNOON CU TOPPED BY SCATTERED CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. THE HAZE
WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO SMOKE FROM SEASONAL FIRES ACROSS MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID/UPPER 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LOW CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON FRIDAY AS THE 00Z
HI-RES MODELS AND 06Z NAM12 MODEL DEPICT A WEAKENING MCS MOVING
SE INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ASSIST IN ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO
HOLD TOGETHER...MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 93 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 71 91 71 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 92 70 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 89 69 89 / 0 0 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 94 75 93 / 0 0 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 89 70 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 94 73 92 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 91 72 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 91 73 90 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 230446
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
POCKETS OF STRATUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THE STRATUS WILL FILL-IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH CIG BASES ALSO LOWERING. ANTICIPATE BKN-OVC CIGS BELOW
2KFT AT I-35 TAF SITES BY 07-08Z AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT BY
11-12Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT I-35 TAF SITES IN THE NEAR-
DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KAUS AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE
REDUCED TO 5SM IN HAZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SMOKE FROM THE
FIRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL
BE SERLY 8 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 18 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MID TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 93 69 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 99 74 96 76 / 0 0 10 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 70 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 71 92 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
000
FXUS64 KEWX 230203
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
903 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. S/W ENERGY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MID TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 70 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 75 99 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 73 92 74 93 / - 0 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 72 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25/24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 222339
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. A STEADY INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ENSURE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. CIGS COULD POTENTIALLY LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
AROUND SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL RE-ASSESS WITH
THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS AT KAUS...AND COULD ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AT KSSF/KSAT AS SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIFTS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIGS WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SE-SLY
SFC WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 17 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 95 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 93 69 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 99 74 96 76 / 0 0 10 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 70 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 71 91 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 222001
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGRESSING AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGH MOVING TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING GULF
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION QUICKLY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PATTERN
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
RIDGE FRIDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN
AREA. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL THE
LAST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 95 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 93 69 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 99 74 96 76 / 0 0 10 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 70 91 70 / 0 0 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 71 91 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 221739 AAB
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAKENING FRONT
RETURNS NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO KEEP
CLOUDS IN THE MOST PART IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERN AREAS NEAR KDRT SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINING TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS IN THE KSAT
REGION TO LIFT TO VFR AROUND 20Z WITH BKN CIGS AT AROUND 5K FEET.
LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF KAUS WITH
VFR TO PREVAIL. THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
KSAT TO KAUS AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY. CLOUDS TO HANG IN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BETTER MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS AND HELP
CIGS RISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING
KDRT WHILE VFR FEW-SCT STRATUS PREVAILS NORTH OF KUVA TO KPEZ TO
K3T5 LINE AND SCT-BKN STRATUS PREVAILS SOUTH OF LINE. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR VSBYS EAST OF A KILE TO KT35 TO K11R LINE AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS SOUTHEAST OF A K11R TO KCOT LINE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. VFR SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE RIO
GRANDE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME S TO SE AT 5
TO 12 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 72 91 73 91 / - 0 0 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99
000
FXUS64 KEWX 221126
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING
KDRT WHILE VFR FEW-SCT STRATUS PREVAILS NORTH OF KUVA TO KPEZ TO
K3T5 LINE AND SCT-BKN STRATUS PREVAILS SOUTH OF LINE. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR VSBYS EAST OF A KILE TO KT35 TO K11R LINE AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS SOUTHEAST OF A K11R TO KCOT LINE TO REMAIN JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. VFR SKIES WILL RETURN TO THE RIO
GRANDE BY LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS WILL BECOME S TO SE AT 5
TO 12 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 72 91 73 91 / - 0 0 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 220814
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE WEAK FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
EAGLE PASS TO THREE RIVERS TO EAGLE LAKE. CONVECTION WAS STILL
FIRING ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MESO-HIGH
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
A TYPICAL MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY BUT THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO MID/LATE JUNE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A NORTH/SOUTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION THRU
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
IS A DRY SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THUS THE FAMILIAR LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO.
HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OUR
BIAS-CORRECTED DATABASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 71 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 69 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 68 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 72 91 73 91 / - 0 0 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 220434
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
A 500 HPA TROF MOVING TO THE EASTERN PART OF TEXAS TONIGHT
OPENED THE GATE FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST. AS THE 500 HPA TROF MOVES FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
WEST...WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THROUGH 08Z
CIGS NEAR 4 THSD TO 6 THSD BKN VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AND
A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT VCNTY OF KDRT ARE EXPECTED. AFTER
08Z A FEW CLOUDS AT 5 THSD TO 10 THSD FT VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT
AND KSSF AND SCT CIRRUS ABOVE 25 THSD FT VCNTY OF KDRT IS FORECAST.
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5 THSD FT AND FEW TO SCT CIRRUS ABOVE 25 THSD FT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
CONTINUED TO SHOW DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AS THE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...TAKING THE ENERGY TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED
EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW A TREND OF DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE 500 HPA TROF IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...TAKING THE ENERGY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A 500 HPA TROF FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATE FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
THROUGH 06Z SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
KGTU TO KAUS TO KSAT TO KPEZ. WEST OF THIS LINE ISOLATED
EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH THE WIND SHIFT COMING ACROSS THE WEST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. AFTER 06Z MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR DENTON TO SAN ANGELO TO
FORT STOCKTON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
HAVE BROUGHT MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. COLD AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING STORMS
TO MOVE IN TO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 2AM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE WARM...MOIST PATTERN WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEARLY ZERO. THE ONE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY RAIN IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MODELS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND UPPER RIDGE LOOKS STRONG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 92 71 93 72 / 20 - 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 91 69 92 70 / 20 - 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 70 93 71 / 20 - 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 90 68 91 69 / 10 - 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 97 74 98 75 / 10 10 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 71 90 72 / 20 - 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 71 96 72 / 10 - 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 70 91 71 / 20 - 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 91 73 91 74 / 50 10 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 92 73 93 74 / 20 - 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 72 93 73 / 20 - 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 220138
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
838 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
CONTINUED TO SHOW DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AS THE 700 TO 200 HPA TROF CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...TAKING THE ENERGY TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED
EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW A TREND OF DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE 500 HPA TROF IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...TAKING THE ENERGY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A 500 HPA TROF FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATE FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
THROUGH 06Z SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
KGTU TO KAUS TO KSAT TO KPEZ. WEST OF THIS LINE ISOLATED
EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH THE WIND SHIFT COMING ACROSS THE WEST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. AFTER 06Z MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR DENTON TO SAN ANGELO TO
FORT STOCKTON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
HAVE BROUGHT MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. COLD AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING STORMS
TO MOVE IN TO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 2AM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE WARM...MOIST PATTERN WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEARLY ZERO. THE ONE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY RAIN IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MODELS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND UPPER RIDGE LOOKS STRONG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 68 92 71 93 / 30 20 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 68 91 69 92 / 30 20 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 68 92 70 93 / 20 20 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 90 68 91 / 30 10 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 71 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 66 89 71 90 / 30 20 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 95 71 96 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 90 70 91 / 30 20 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 91 73 91 / 20 50 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 92 73 93 / 20 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 92 72 93 / 20 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 220105
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
805 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO SHOW A TREND OF DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE 500 HPA TROF IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...TAKING THE ENERGY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
A 500 HPA TROF FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATE FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
THROUGH 06Z SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
KGTU TO KAUS TO KSAT TO KPEZ. WEST OF THIS LINE ISOLATED
EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH THE WIND SHIFT COMING ACROSS THE WEST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. AFTER 06Z MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR DENTON TO SAN ANGELO TO
FORT STOCKTON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
HAVE BROUGHT MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. COLD AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING STORMS
TO MOVE IN TO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 2AM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE WARM...MOIST PATTERN WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEARLY ZERO. THE ONE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY RAIN IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MODELS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND UPPER RIDGE LOOKS STRONG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 68 92 71 93 / 30 40 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 68 91 69 92 / 30 40 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 68 92 70 93 / 20 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 90 68 91 / 30 30 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 71 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 66 89 71 90 / 30 40 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 95 71 96 / 20 30 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 90 70 91 / 30 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 91 73 91 / 20 50 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 92 73 93 / 20 30 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 92 72 93 / 20 30 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 212327
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
A 500 HPA TROF FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE TO EASTERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATE FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
THROUGH 06Z SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
KGTU TO KAUS TO KSAT TO KPEZ. WEST OF THIS LINE ISOLATED
EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND WITH THE WIND SHIFT COMING ACROSS THE WEST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. AFTER 06Z MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
RIDGING ALOFT INCREASES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR DENTON TO SAN ANGELO TO
FORT STOCKTON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
HAVE BROUGHT MOIST GULF AIR WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. COLD AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING STORMS
TO MOVE IN TO OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER BY 2AM...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL END ANY PRECIP CHANCES. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE WARM...MOIST PATTERN WITH OVERNIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEARLY ZERO. THE ONE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY RAIN IS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MODELS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SHALLOW AND UPPER RIDGE LOOKS STRONG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 68 92 71 93 / 30 40 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 68 91 69 92 / 30 40 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 68 92 70 93 / 20 40 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 64 90 68 91 / 30 40 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 71 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 66 89 71 90 / 30 40 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 69 95 71 96 / 20 30 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 90 70 91 / 30 40 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 74 91 73 91 / 20 50 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 70 92 73 93 / 20 40 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 70 92 72 93 / 20 40 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08/24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17/05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
| 
