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000
FXUS64 KEWX 140456
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1056 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
STARTING TO SEE BR DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE I35 TERMINALS AT 05Z.
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH BR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE WIND FIELDS
STAYING UP. STILL THINKING I35 TERMINALS WILL AVOID ANY CATEGORY
CHANGING BR BUT MVFR/IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
RAMPING UP INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 140456
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1056 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
STARTING TO SEE BR DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE I35 TERMINALS AT 05Z.
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH BR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE WIND FIELDS
STAYING UP. STILL THINKING I35 TERMINALS WILL AVOID ANY CATEGORY
CHANGING BR BUT MVFR/IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
RAMPING UP INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 140456
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1056 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
STARTING TO SEE BR DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE I35 TERMINALS AT 05Z.
MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH BR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE WIND FIELDS
STAYING UP. STILL THINKING I35 TERMINALS WILL AVOID ANY CATEGORY
CHANGING BR BUT MVFR/IFR CIG DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY MID DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
RAMPING UP INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 140146
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
746 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR THE WESTERN CWA. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FOG POTENTIAL THERE AS WELL...WITH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0 SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BEING DENSE. SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CIG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST IFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT...KDRT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWERING TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK
AND SOME MVFR BR. BR CONCERNS SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MINOR WITH
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 132336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CIG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST IFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT...KDRT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWERING TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK
AND SOME MVFR BR. BR CONCERNS SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MINOR WITH
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 132336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CIG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST IFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT...KDRT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWERING TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK
AND SOME MVFR BR. BR CONCERNS SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MINOR WITH
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 132336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CIG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST IFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT...KDRT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWERING TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK
AND SOME MVFR BR. BR CONCERNS SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MINOR WITH
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 132029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131731
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A UVA-SAT-AUS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR
CU THEREAFTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SE TO S
WIND 8-12 KTS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IFR CEILINGS WILL RE-DEVELOP WITH STRATUS ALONG AUS-SAT LINE
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND EXPAND WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
AT DRT POSSIBLE BY 12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST AND IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO MAVERICK...BUT ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL 11 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BY THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131702
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1102 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WE HAVE
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS
IN DIMMIT AND MAVERICK COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITY IS AROUND THREE
MILES...BUT IN MOST PLACES THE VISIBILITY IS NOW UNRESTRICTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST AND IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO MAVERICK...BUT ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL 11 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BY THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131458
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
858 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST AND IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO MAVERICK...BUT ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL 11 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...
KARNES...LAVACA...MAVERICK...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131139 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131139 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131139 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 131039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 130449
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING NO BR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ANY
TERMINAL. WITH WINDS LOOKING TO STAY AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED BR FROM TAFS THIS GO AROUND.
STILL EXPECTING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK RESULTING
IN CIGS AOA 9-12 KFT. LOOKING MORE LIKE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
OCCUR JUST BEFORE NOON TOMORROW AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            44  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 130321
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE... /TRIMMED FOG AREA TO FARTHER SOUTH/

EVENING OBSERVATIONS ARE IN LINE WITH HIGHER RES MODEL PROJECTIONS
FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO SPILL FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES. WILL EXPECT TO SEE FOG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90
AT AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY
90. EARLY PARTS OF SATURDAY WERE UPDATED TO ADD A BIT MORE STRATUS
AFTER 12Z WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PROMOTE A MORE AGRESSIVE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE TO COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND THAN DOES THE
SURFACE WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS AND LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BR BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS AS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
KDRT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY HOWEVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            44  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 122348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS AND LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BR BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS AS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
KDRT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 122348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS AND LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BR BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS AS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
KDRT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 122039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 122039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121146 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121146 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121146 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 121017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 120508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

VFR SKIES MAY BE THREATENED BY SOME INVADING MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...AND THE DEW POINT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SOME FOG...POSSIBLY AN LIFR OR LOWER CIG COULD FORM OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. THE TAF CONDITIONS ARE KEPT CONSERVATIVE IN
CASE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DRIVE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT PARTIALLY CLEARS OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAFS...BUT THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOWS AT AUS/SAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SIMILAR CLOUD LAYERS. WILL DEFER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AT LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 120508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

VFR SKIES MAY BE THREATENED BY SOME INVADING MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...AND THE DEW POINT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SOME FOG...POSSIBLY AN LIFR OR LOWER CIG COULD FORM OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. THE TAF CONDITIONS ARE KEPT CONSERVATIVE IN
CASE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DRIVE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT PARTIALLY CLEARS OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAFS...BUT THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOWS AT AUS/SAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SIMILAR CLOUD LAYERS. WILL DEFER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AT LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 120508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

VFR SKIES MAY BE THREATENED BY SOME INVADING MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...AND THE DEW POINT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SOME FOG...POSSIBLY AN LIFR OR LOWER CIG COULD FORM OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. THE TAF CONDITIONS ARE KEPT CONSERVATIVE IN
CASE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DRIVE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT PARTIALLY CLEARS OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAFS...BUT THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOWS AT AUS/SAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SIMILAR CLOUD LAYERS. WILL DEFER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AT LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 120316
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 112359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 112359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 112359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 112052
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  42  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     44  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           44  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             40  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 111741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES. NUMERICAL MODELS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT FORECAST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW HAVE INCLUDED 6SM AT BOTH SAT/SSF TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 111741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES. NUMERICAL MODELS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT FORECAST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW HAVE INCLUDED 6SM AT BOTH SAT/SSF TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 111741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES. NUMERICAL MODELS AND CROSS SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT FORECAST DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW HAVE INCLUDED 6SM AT BOTH SAT/SSF TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS...SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TREADWAY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 111136
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KEWX 111136
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 111136
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG AT THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION MAKING FOG
FORMATION SEEM UNLIKELY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 110941
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FORCES A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE
WARMER...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SURFACE HIGH SURGING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCES THE FRONT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
IS MINIMAL AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID FEBRUARY SUNDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL DRY
THE AIRMASS MOST AREAS AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS THERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS TO THE EAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. A DRY AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO JUST WEST OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED.
FURTHER WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS... THOUGH WINDS WILL BE 5 MPH OR LESS. CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  50  77  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  45  76  46  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     80  47  79  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  46  75  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  46  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  47  75  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             81  43  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        79  46  77  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  52  77  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  48  79  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  47  80  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





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