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000
FXUS64 KEWX 272342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
10Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES AND BRINGS IN MOIST GULF AIR. IFR
CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KDRT AND LEAST LIKELY AT KAUS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OR RISE TO VFR AFTER 17Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN HAS KEPT CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY DIFFERENCE OF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTS STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD UP TO DEL RIO
AND EVENTUALLY UP ON THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LOW LEVEL HOWEVER AND THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEEKEND OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SFC MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK
H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGHING MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CWA. ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC MENTION.

BY MID DAY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
AND ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY EAST WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER. THIS SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE
COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP...PERHAPS SUSPICIOUSLY TOO
RAPIDLY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD WARM LOWS UP INTO THE 40S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE
WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PREVENTS
MUCH DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS PRODUCES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH DEVELOPS SUBSTANTIAL QPF. EURO IS ESSENTIALLY A POLAR
OPPOSITE. SO TO PREVENT BEING THE BOY WHO CRIED RAIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THIS...HIGHLY DUBIOUS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              43  70  53  78  62 /   0   0  -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  40  71  52  78  61 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     43  72  52  78  62 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            41  68  50  75  59 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  70  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        41  68  52  77  59 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             44  70  47  76  51 /   0   0  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        42  71  52  77  61 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   43  71  56  78  63 /   0  -   -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  71  52  76  64 /   0   0  -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  72  52  77  63 /   0   0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 272111
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN HAS KEPT CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY DIFFERENCE OF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTS STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD UP TO DEL RIO
AND EVENTUALLY UP ON THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LOW LEVEL HOWEVER AND THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEEKEND OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SFC MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK
H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGHING MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CWA. ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC MENTION.

BY MID DAY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
AND ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY EAST WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER. THIS SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE
COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP...PERHAPS SUSPICIOUSLY TOO
RAPIDLY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD WARM LOWS UP INTO THE 40S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE
WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PREVENTS
MUCH DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS PRODUCES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH DEVELOPS SUBSTANTIAL QPF. EURO IS ESSENTIALLY A POLAR
OPPOSITE. SO TO PREVENT BEING THE BOY WHO CRIED RAIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THIS...HIGHLY DUBIOUS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  43  70  53  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  40  71  52  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  43  72  52  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  41  68  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  45  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  41  68  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  44  70  47  76 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  42  71  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  56  78 /   0   0  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  52  76 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 272111
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN HAS KEPT CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY DIFFERENCE OF RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TONIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. HI RES MODELS AS WELL AS 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WRF SIMULATED GOES-R DEPICTS STRATUS
DECK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEY AND SPREAD UP TO DEL RIO
AND EVENTUALLY UP ON THE ESCARPMENT BY EARLY MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN LOW LEVEL HOWEVER AND THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WEEKEND OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SFC MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK
H5 SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGHING MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CWA. ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHC MENTION.

BY MID DAY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
AND ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY EAST WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER. THIS SHOULD MAKE TUESDAY MORNING THE
COLDEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS BUT ONLY INTO THE MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP...PERHAPS SUSPICIOUSLY TOO
RAPIDLY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD WARM LOWS UP INTO THE 40S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE
WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU PREFER.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PREVENTS
MUCH DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS PRODUCES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH DEVELOPS SUBSTANTIAL QPF. EURO IS ESSENTIALLY A POLAR
OPPOSITE. SO TO PREVENT BEING THE BOY WHO CRIED RAIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSIDER THIS...HIGHLY DUBIOUS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  43  70  53  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  40  71  52  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  43  72  52  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  41  68  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  45  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  41  68  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  44  70  47  76 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  42  71  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  56  78 /   0   0  -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  52  76 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 271752 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1152 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC IS ONGOING CURRENTLY AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
ABOUT 28/06-07Z. THEREAFTER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
DUE TO ESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS KDRT BY 09Z. LOW CIGS SHOULD THEN BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS
KSAT/KSST NEAR 12Z AND LASTLY KAUS NEAR 13Z. KDRT WILL HAVE
GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR EXPECTED FOR KSAT/KAUS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. KDRT MAY STAY MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z WITH KSAT/KAUS
RETURNING TO VFR 16-18Z.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY ARE NE/E AS OF 18Z AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
WITH SOME PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME E/ESE OVERNIGHT
AND BE NEAR OR LESS THAN 5 KT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 1630Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 5-15 MPH NORTHEAST.
DEL RIO IS THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S LIKELY DUE TO AN INTERESTING MICRO
CLIMATE EFFECT OFF LAKE AMISTAD WHICH IS NORTHWEST OF THE KDRT AND
LAUGHLIN SURFACE OB. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KDRT ANOMALY...THE
HOURLY GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK PRETTY WELL. A NORMAL OBS BLEND
INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND
WAS THE ONLY EDIT TO THE MORNING PACKAGE.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 271752 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1152 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC IS ONGOING CURRENTLY AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
ABOUT 28/06-07Z. THEREAFTER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
DUE TO ESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR AND IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS KDRT BY 09Z. LOW CIGS SHOULD THEN BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS
KSAT/KSST NEAR 12Z AND LASTLY KAUS NEAR 13Z. KDRT WILL HAVE
GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH MVFR EXPECTED FOR KSAT/KAUS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. KDRT MAY STAY MVFR THROUGH 18-19Z WITH KSAT/KAUS
RETURNING TO VFR 16-18Z.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY ARE NE/E AS OF 18Z AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
WITH SOME PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME E/ESE OVERNIGHT
AND BE NEAR OR LESS THAN 5 KT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 1630Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 5-15 MPH NORTHEAST.
DEL RIO IS THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S LIKELY DUE TO AN INTERESTING MICRO
CLIMATE EFFECT OFF LAKE AMISTAD WHICH IS NORTHWEST OF THE KDRT AND
LAUGHLIN SURFACE OB. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KDRT ANOMALY...THE
HOURLY GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK PRETTY WELL. A NORMAL OBS BLEND
INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND
WAS THE ONLY EDIT TO THE MORNING PACKAGE.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 271649
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AT 1630Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 5-15 MPH NORTHEAST.
DEL RIO IS THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S LIKELY DUE TO AN INTERESTING MICRO
CLIMATE EFFECT OFF LAKE AMISTAD WHICH IS NORTHWEST OF THE KDRT AND
LAUGHLIN SURFACE OB. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KDRT ANOMALY...THE
HOURLY GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK PRETTY WELL. A NORMAL OBS BLEND
INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND
WAS THE ONLY EDIT TO THE MORNING PACKAGE.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS SHIFTING TODAY
AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z FRIDAY. FOR TODAY DRY AIR
AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE
SIMULATED WRF ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z. THIS FAST RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS CAN BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS
AT TIMES. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z
WEST AND 10-13Z EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 271649
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AT 1630Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 5-15 MPH NORTHEAST.
DEL RIO IS THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S LIKELY DUE TO AN INTERESTING MICRO
CLIMATE EFFECT OFF LAKE AMISTAD WHICH IS NORTHWEST OF THE KDRT AND
LAUGHLIN SURFACE OB. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KDRT ANOMALY...THE
HOURLY GRIDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK PRETTY WELL. A NORMAL OBS BLEND
INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND
WAS THE ONLY EDIT TO THE MORNING PACKAGE.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS SHIFTING TODAY
AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z FRIDAY. FOR TODAY DRY AIR
AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE
SIMULATED WRF ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z. THIS FAST RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS CAN BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS
AT TIMES. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z
WEST AND 10-13Z EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 271127 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS SHIFTING TODAY
AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z FRIDAY. FOR TODAY DRY AIR
AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE
SIMULATED WRF ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z. THIS FAST RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS CAN BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS
AT TIMES. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z
WEST AND 10-13Z EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 271127 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS SHIFTING TODAY
AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER 09Z FRIDAY. FOR TODAY DRY AIR
AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...BECOMING EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE
SIMULATED WRF ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z. THIS FAST RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS CAN BE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS
AT TIMES. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z
WEST AND 10-13Z EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 270958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 270958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04








000
FXUS64 KEWX 270958
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
358 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY
DUE COLD ADVECTION IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
RETURN. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WHILE NAVGEM KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GO WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AS THE
DENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW
A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS SHOWS
A WEAK TROUGH AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE GFS FOR NOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  42  71  54  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  38  71  54  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  42  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  40  69  50  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  43  70  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  39  70  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  41  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  41  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  43  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  45  71  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  45  72  52  77 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 270527
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...TO EASTERLY
FLOW ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE... /RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT/
A RE-TREND OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT SUGGEST MINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND DRY DEW
POINT ADVECTION HAS ACCELERATED MID-EVENING COOLING TO CATCH UP
SOME WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. REST OF THE FORECAST
WAS UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              42  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     42  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             39  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 270527
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...TO EASTERLY
FLOW ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE... /RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT/
A RE-TREND OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT SUGGEST MINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND DRY DEW
POINT ADVECTION HAS ACCELERATED MID-EVENING COOLING TO CATCH UP
SOME WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. REST OF THE FORECAST
WAS UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              42  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     42  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             39  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KEWX 270315
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
915 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE... /RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT/
A RE-TREND OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT SUGGEST MINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND DRY DEW
POINT ADVECTION HAS ACCELERATED MID-EVENING COOLING TO CATCH UP
SOME WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. REST OF THE FORCAST
WAS UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING TO NORTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              42  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     42  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             39  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 270315
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
915 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE... /RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT/
A RE-TREND OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT SUGGEST MINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND DRY DEW
POINT ADVECTION HAS ACCELERATED MID-EVENING COOLING TO CATCH UP
SOME WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. REST OF THE FORCAST
WAS UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING TO NORTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              42  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     42  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             39  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12








000
FXUS64 KEWX 262329
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING TO NORTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        38  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       41  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 262329
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING TO NORTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        38  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       41  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 262054
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUAZI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           38  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        38  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       41  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 261834
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
HOURLY OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEPER WARMING TREND THAN FORECAST
AND WITH 70S ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ALONG I35 CORRIDOR...WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED THE MAX T GRID. RUC MODEL SEEMED TO DECENTLY
DEPICT MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH THAT
FOR THE MOST PART. CONTINUING TO CLOSELY MONITOR WINDS ON THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS DEWS IN THE TEENS ARE BEING SEEN THERE
RESULTING IN VERY LOW RH VALUES.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE W/SW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 20
KT FOR KAUS WITH KSAT/KSSF SLIGHTLY LESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT PIVOT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 16Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FROM 5-15MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS RH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OUT THERE.
HOURLY T GRIDS WERE A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO COMPENSATE. MAY NEED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE
DEGREES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  65  44  71  55 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  66  44  71  53 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  62  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  66  44  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  63  43  70  54 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  66  42  72  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        39  65  43  71  53 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   41  65  45  71  56 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       42  66  47  72  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           42  67  46  73  53 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 261737 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE W/SW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 20
KT FOR KAUS WITH KSAT/KSSF SLIGHTLY LESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT PIVOT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 16Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FROM 5-15MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS RH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OUT THERE.
HOURLY T GRIDS WERE A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO COMPENSATE. MAY NEED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE
DEGREES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 261737 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE W/SW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 20
KT FOR KAUS WITH KSAT/KSSF SLIGHTLY LESS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT PIVOT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
AT 16Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FROM 5-15MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS RH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OUT THERE.
HOURLY T GRIDS WERE A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO COMPENSATE. MAY NEED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE
DEGREES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 261617
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AT 16Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FROM 5-15MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS RH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OUT THERE.
HOURLY T GRIDS WERE A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO COMPENSATE. MAY NEED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE
DEGREES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
W-SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 261617
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AT 16Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST
FROM 5-15MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NORTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS RH VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OUT THERE.
HOURLY T GRIDS WERE A BIT SLOW TO WARM THIS MORNING SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO COMPENSATE. MAY NEED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE
DEGREES IF THAT TREND CONTINUES.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
W-SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 261127 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
W-SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 261127 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
W-SW AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 260947
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 260947
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...COOLER...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. A DRY
ZONAL FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURN FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY LIFT
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
THEN DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE ALL
KEEP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA FORCE
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH AND THE NAVGEM
KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL
FAVOR THAT MODEL...ESPECIALLY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLOWING THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ERODING THE COLD AIRMASS ON
ITS SOUTHERN END. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES BACK NORTH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE
FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 INCH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  41  65  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  37  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  40  66  44  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  38  62  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  39  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  37  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  39  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  65  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  42  66  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  42  67  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 260549
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MODERATE SW WINDS COULD PICK UP TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG I-35. A WEAK COLD
FRONT REINFORCEMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH OVER I-35 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER AT DRT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
RELATIVELY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        33  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 260549
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MODERATE SW WINDS COULD PICK UP TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG I-35. A WEAK COLD
FRONT REINFORCEMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH OVER I-35 TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHTER AT DRT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A
RELATIVELY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            36  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        33  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 252353
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE SW WINDS COULD PICK UP TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
REINFORCEMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH OVER AUS/SAT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12








000
FXUS64 KEWX 252353
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE SW WINDS COULD PICK UP TO ABOVE 12 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
REINFORCEMENT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH OVER AUS/SAT WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD KEEP THEM BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 252140
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33










000
FXUS64 KEWX 252140
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
20S ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN AS LOW AS THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST AREAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
INTACT AND INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY INCREASES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
MONDAY AND AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A SHALLOW...ARCTIC
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              41  70  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  70  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     39  70  41  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            37  67  39  65  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           36  69  40  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  68  37  65  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             34  71  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  70  39  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   40  69  42  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  71  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  71  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33











000
FXUS64 KEWX 251725 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
ALSO...PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM TO NEAR 65 DEGREES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. WE HAVE INCREASED
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WARMING. MINOR
CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO THE SKY COVER. FINALLY...WE HAVE UPDATED
THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST WITH
ONLY A SMALL FEW100 ALTOCUMULUS PATCH MOVING EAST ACROSS HILL
COUNTRY. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND THEN GO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. SKC
TO PREVAIL TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT FROM THE SW
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. /ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS
FROM VIRGA OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BORDER REGION WITH CANADA FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND NAVGEM BRING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH. FOR NOW...FAVOR THE GFS DUE
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  41  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  34  70  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  37  67  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  37  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  37  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  37  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  69  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33










000
FXUS64 KEWX 251725 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
ALSO...PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM TO NEAR 65 DEGREES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. WE HAVE INCREASED
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WARMING. MINOR
CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO THE SKY COVER. FINALLY...WE HAVE UPDATED
THE LATEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST WITH
ONLY A SMALL FEW100 ALTOCUMULUS PATCH MOVING EAST ACROSS HILL
COUNTRY. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND THEN GO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. SKC
TO PREVAIL TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT FROM THE SW
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. /ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS
FROM VIRGA OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BORDER REGION WITH CANADA FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND NAVGEM BRING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH. FOR NOW...FAVOR THE GFS DUE
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  41  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  34  70  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  37  67  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  37  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  37  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  37  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  69  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 251134 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SOME
SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT 25K FEET. RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS
AREAS WHICH IS LIKELY VIRGA. NOT EVEN EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT
GROUND LEVEL. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-10 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS
FROM VIRGA OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BORDER REGION WITH CANADA FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND NAVGEM BRING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH. FOR NOW...FAVOR THE GFS DUE
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  41  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  34  70  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  37  67  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  37  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  37  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  37  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  69  42  69 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 251134 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SOME
SCT/BKN CLOUDS AT 25K FEET. RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS THIS
AREAS WHICH IS LIKELY VIRGA. NOT EVEN EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT
GROUND LEVEL. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-10 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS
FROM VIRGA OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BORDER REGION WITH CANADA FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND NAVGEM BRING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH. FOR NOW...FAVOR THE GFS DUE
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  41  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  34  70  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  37  67  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  37  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  37  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  37  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  69  42  69 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 250948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS
FROM VIRGA OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BORDER REGION WITH CANADA FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND NAVGEM BRING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH. FOR NOW...FAVOR THE GFS DUE
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  41  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  34  70  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  37  67  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  37  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  37  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  37  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  69  42  69 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 250948
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SOME CLOUDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS
FROM VIRGA OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AND WILL NOT MENTION SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. LOW LEVEL JET MAY GENERATE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE BORDER REGION WITH CANADA FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
ECMWF AND NAVGEM BRING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH. FOR NOW...FAVOR THE GFS DUE
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  41  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  34  70  37  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  39  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  37  67  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  37  69  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  37  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  34  71  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  37  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  39  69  42  69 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  39  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  37  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04








000
FXUS64 KEWX 250525
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
VFR SKIES. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE PASSING OF A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER TX WHICH COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME MID
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE BASE/SHEAR AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A SMALL POCKET OF 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT FOR MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST. BOTH NAM12 AND
GFS40 MODEL SOLUTIONS CLEAR THINGS OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. AFTER A COOL START TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AROUND NOON TUESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE
ZONE FORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE HIRES AND MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THE AREA DRY FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...12Z
NAM12 AND 15Z SREF SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
OVER THE LLANO AND VICINITY AREAS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
NEARS HIGHWAY 90. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FAIRLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  65  41  69  42 /   0  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  65  34  69  38 /   0  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  65  39  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  62  37  67  40 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  64  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  63  37  67  39 /   0  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  64  34  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  37  69  40 /   0  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   39  65  39  69  43 /   0  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       41  65  39  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  65  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05









000
FXUS64 KEWX 250525
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
VFR SKIES. ONLY WEATHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IS THE PASSING OF A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER TX WHICH COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME MID
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE BASE/SHEAR AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A SMALL POCKET OF 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT FOR MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST. BOTH NAM12 AND
GFS40 MODEL SOLUTIONS CLEAR THINGS OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. AFTER A COOL START TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AROUND NOON TUESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE
ZONE FORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE HIRES AND MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THE AREA DRY FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...12Z
NAM12 AND 15Z SREF SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
OVER THE LLANO AND VICINITY AREAS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE
NEARS HIGHWAY 90. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FAIRLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  65  41  69  42 /   0  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  36  65  34  69  38 /   0  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     40  65  39  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  62  37  67  40 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  64  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        36  63  37  67  39 /   0  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             37  64  34  68  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  37  69  40 /   0  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   39  65  39  69  43 /   0  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       41  65  39  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           41  65  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05








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