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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301757 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A LINE OF STORMS LEAVING KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MERGES WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH IFR VBSYS WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS ALONG THE I-35 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE LEFT OVER FROM THE LINE OF
STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS LINE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ACROSS THE WEST
THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE THIS COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE
RACES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DUE TO NOT ONLY DAY TIME HEATING BUT ALSO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE SLOWER MOVING OR MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  83  64  86  66 /  40  20   0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  82  61  85  64 /  40  20   0  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  84  64  87  66 /  50  20   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  80  62  84  65 /  40  10   0  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  86  69  89  70 /  50  20  -   10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  81  62  84  65 /  40  10   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  84  65  87  66 /  50  20  -   10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  82  63  85  65 /  50  20   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  83  63  85  67 /  50  20  -   10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  84  66  86  68 /  40  20   0  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  84  67  86  67 /  40  20   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301757 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A LINE OF STORMS LEAVING KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE AS IT MERGES WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH IFR VBSYS WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS ALONG THE I-35 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE LEFT OVER FROM THE LINE OF
STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS LINE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ACROSS THE WEST
THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE THIS COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE
RACES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DUE TO NOT ONLY DAY TIME HEATING BUT ALSO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE SLOWER MOVING OR MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  83  64  86  66 /  40  20   0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  82  61  85  64 /  40  20   0  10   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  84  64  87  66 /  50  20   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  80  62  84  65 /  40  10   0  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  86  69  89  70 /  50  20  -   10   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  81  62  84  65 /  40  10   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  84  65  87  66 /  50  20  -   10   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  82  63  85  65 /  50  20   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  83  63  85  67 /  50  20  -   10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  84  66  86  68 /  40  20   0  10   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  84  67  86  67 /  40  20   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE LEFT OVER FROM THE LINE OF
STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS LINE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ACROSS THE WEST
THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE THIS COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE
RACES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DUE TO NOT ONLY DAY TIME HEATING BUT ALSO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE SLOWER MOVING OR MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  70  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE LEFT OVER FROM THE LINE OF
STORMS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS LINE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ACROSS THE WEST
THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS/QPF/WEATHER GRIDS TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS
LINE. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE THIS COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE
RACES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEN DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DUE TO NOT ONLY DAY TIME HEATING BUT ALSO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
UP TO 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE SLOWER MOVING OR MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            80  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  70  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  60  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  60  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  60  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM KDRT TO KERV TO
KBMQ TO KILE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE SE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA MIDDAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF SITES FOR 12Z TO 14Z AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VCSH OTHERWISE. IFR/MVFR CIGS
BECOME VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD TONIGHT. S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  60  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX N/NW OF THE REGION AND ITS EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL BUMP UP THE TIMING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO START AT 4AM THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE IT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS REVEALS A SOUTHWARD
TRAVELING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A GUST
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD DEVELOPED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS AND
KEEP THEM IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW WILL THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR ANOTHER POSSIBLE BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN NEW MEXICO AND HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
WILL SHAPE TODAY`S RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. TODAY`S
RESULTANT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN WITH SOME
AID ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

OVERALL, FEEL HRRR/RAP HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND
OVERALL SIGNALS FROM SPC SSEO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING STORMS WILL ENTER HILL COUNTRY AROUND 4-5AM.
GENERAL BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR 8-10AM WITH SOUTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH NOON.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL THIS BOUNDARY HAVE AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT. IF MOMENTUM SLOWS AND SETS UP A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH THE SEA-BREEZE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THEN THE CONDITIONS WILL BE SET FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND
SCENARIO IS THAT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND A SECOND BOUNDARY (FROM CURRENT NEW MEXICO
STORMS) IN COMBO WITH WEAK FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO ACTS TO HELP TRIGGER LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A THIRD SCENARIO WOULD BE THE FIRST BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE REGION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER CONVECTION INITIALLY THIS
MORNING AND CREATES MORE CLOUD COVER/STRATIFORM RAIN. THIS WOULD
DEPLETE SOME OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANT ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BY
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. AT
THIS STAGE...FEEL THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3
INCHES OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
RAPID RUN-OFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AREA WISE GIVEN PWATS 1.6" AND THE NUMEROUS TRIGGERS
POSSIBLE. OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR IMPACT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.

BY MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH FROM
SUNDAY WILL LINGER AND POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OR
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DEEPER MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THE ONLY SMALL CAVEAT WOULD BE LIMITED MOISUTRE
RETURN IN THE LOW-LVLS FROM SE SURFACE WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY THAT COULD MAKE INTO FAR SE COASTAL PRAIRIE ZONES BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE MID-WEEK
ON STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WITH GFS BEING WEAKER WITH
IMPULSES RIDING THE NORTH EDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHILE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DISTURBANCES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES AND WATCH FOR ANY NW FLOW TSTORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE IN FAR W/NW TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING
THIS DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS
POINT HOWEVER. GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND IT APPEARS A WEAK
TO MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK COULD TAKE FORM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEXAS
UNDER THE DRIER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN AND ELEVATED
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  67  81  65  85 /  70  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  81  62  85 /  70  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  82  65  86 /  70  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  65  79  63  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  85  68  89 /  60  40  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  65  80  62  84 /  70  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  67  83  66  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  66  81  64  84 /  70  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  68  81  65  85 /  70  60  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  68  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  69  83  67  86 /  70  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300534
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN MCS CURRENTLY FROM N OF KABI TO N OF KMAF WILL MOVE TO THE SE
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TO EDWARDS PLATEAU BY SATURDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO WEAKENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE DAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS
AND TTU WRF WITH PROB30S FOR THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING AND VCSH OTHERWISE. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL TURN MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS AND BR DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. SOME MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  82  64  85  66 /  40  20  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  81  62  85  63 /  40  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  83  64  86  66 /  50  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  80  62  83  65 /  40  20  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  81  62  84  64 /  40  20  10  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  83  65  86  66 /  40  40  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  81  64  84  65 /  50  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  82  65  85  66 /  50  40  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  83  66  85  67 /  50  30  10  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  83  66  86  67 /  50  40  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300534
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN MCS CURRENTLY FROM N OF KABI TO N OF KMAF WILL MOVE TO THE SE
OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TO EDWARDS PLATEAU BY SATURDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO WEAKENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE DAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS
AND TTU WRF WITH PROB30S FOR THE TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING AND VCSH OTHERWISE. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL TURN MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS AND BR DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
RETURN TO VFR LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. SOME MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TURN TO N TO NE WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GR ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  82  64  85  66 /  40  20  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  81  62  85  63 /  40  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  83  64  86  66 /  50  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  80  62  83  65 /  40  20  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  81  62  84  64 /  40  20  10  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  83  65  86  66 /  40  40  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        66  81  64  84  65 /  50  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  82  65  85  66 /  50  40  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  83  66  85  67 /  50  30  10  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  83  66  86  67 /  50  40  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 292358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 292358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 292358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291954
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291954
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291954
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW. STILL A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS
HOWEVER. THEREFORE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE IFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS. ONLY MVFR EXPECTED AT
KDRT. INCLUDED PROB30 IN THE 30 HOUR TAFS OF KAUS/KSAT BEYOND 18Z
TOMORROW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS. REMOVED POPS AND
MENTION OF WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  86  67  82  65 /  30  50  50  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  66  81  63 /  20  50  50  40  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  67  83  65 /  20  50  50  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  82  64  80  63 /  30  60  50  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  86  68  86  68 /  20  40  50  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  83  65  81  63 /  30  60  50  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  85  67  84  66 /  20  40  50  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  67  82  65 /  20  50  50  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  85  67  83  66 /  20  60  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  86  68  83  67 /  20  50  50  40  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  69  82  67 /  20  50  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW. STILL A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS
HOWEVER. THEREFORE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE IFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS. ONLY MVFR EXPECTED AT
KDRT. INCLUDED PROB30 IN THE 30 HOUR TAFS OF KAUS/KSAT BEYOND 18Z
TOMORROW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS. REMOVED POPS AND
MENTION OF WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  86  67  82  65 /  30  50  50  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  66  81  63 /  20  50  50  40  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  67  83  65 /  20  50  50  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  82  64  80  63 /  30  60  50  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  86  68  86  68 /  20  40  50  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  83  65  81  63 /  30  60  50  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  85  67  84  66 /  20  40  50  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  67  82  65 /  20  50  50  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  85  67  83  66 /  20  60  50  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  86  68  83  67 /  20  50  50  40  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  69  82  67 /  20  50  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291506
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS. REMOVED POPS AND
MENTION OF WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  20  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  20  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  20  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  20  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  20  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291506
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS. REMOVED POPS AND
MENTION OF WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  20  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  20  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  20  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  20  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  20  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291506
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS. REMOVED POPS AND
MENTION OF WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  20  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  20  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  20  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  20  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  20  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291204
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291204
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
ENDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE A RENEWED THREAT OF NEW FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. HAVE LEFT VCSH AT KAUS
FOR A FEW HOURS. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBS ARE
TOO LOW. SKIES START VFR AT 29/12Z AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT THEM
THAT WAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD IFR/MVFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE MORNING AND HAVE TEMPOS FOR THIS. IFR/MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CIGS SLOWLY LIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  50  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  60  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  50  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  50  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  50  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  70  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  20  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290755
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.



&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  40  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  40  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  40  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  40  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  40  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  40  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  50  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  30  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  30  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290755
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS STEADILY
DECREASING. SEVERE WINDS WERE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE TYPE WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING BEXAR COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
WELL BEHAVED BECAUSE THE MAIN LINE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING AT A DECENT SPEED AROUND 40-45 MPH. DUAL-POL PRECIP
ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3
INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH LINGERING STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE UNTIL THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z. THIS
RESIDUAL RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY...LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATIFORM PRECIP AND WILL DECREASE THEM
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRETTY
WELL WORKED OVER AND AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH ACTIVITY. THE TTU
WRF SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
AFTER 18Z.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHWEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS THESE WILL TRY TO ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO A LINE...DETACH
FROM THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH. MOST MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN THE
ACTUAL FRONT MAKES IT. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF A REPEAT MCS
TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOW. POPS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL
ALWAYS BE A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THAT WILL BE OUR MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PIN-POINT EXACTLY WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR AND WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OR AN AREA CAN BE OBTAINED.



&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS AS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS STALLED
UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO BE
NORTHERLY WHICH GENERALLY IS NOT THE BEST FOR HEAVY RAIN. THINK WE
WILL SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST
AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...WITH THE NORTH
FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THE WANING
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FIRST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  71  86  67  82 /  40  30  50  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  70  84  66  81 /  40  20  50  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  71  85  67  83 /  40  20  50  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  69  82  64  80 /  40  30  60  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  73  86  68  86 /  20  20  40  50  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  70  83  65  81 /  40  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  72  85  67  84 /  20  20  40  50  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  71  84  67  82 /  40  20  50  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  72  85  67  83 /  50  20  60  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  72  86  68  83 /  30  20  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  73  86  69  82 /  30  20  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290538
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KAUS TO KTPL LINE AT INITIAL
29/06Z TIME OF TAFS. WILL CARRY WINDS OF 25G45KTS AND 1SM +TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES. THEN TRANSITION TO 5SM -TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF -RA WITH OCNL TS FOLLOWS THE SQUALL LINE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE A MIX OF IFR TO VFR. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBS. CIGS LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING SCT-BKN IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
EVENING INTO NIGHT. N-NW WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
THE INITIAL SQUALL LINE AND THEN TURN TO SE-S BY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  85  67  83  66 /  30  60  50  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  84  65  82  64 /  30  60  50  40  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  83  66 /  30  60  50  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  82  65  80  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  86  68  86  69 /  20  50  60  40  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  83  65  81  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  85  67  84  67 /  30  50  50  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  67  82  66 /  30  60  50  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  85  68  83  67 /  30  60  60  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  68  83  68 /  30  60  50  40  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  85  68  84  68 /  30  50  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290108
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  70  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  70  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  60  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  80  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  69  83  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  70  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  60  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  60  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  70  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  60  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290108
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  70  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  70  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  60  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  80  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  69  83  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  70  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  60  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  60  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  70  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  60  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290108
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  70  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  70  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  60  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  80  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  69  83  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  70  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  60  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  60  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  70  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  60  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290108
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
808 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FED BY A RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE LINE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM SURVIVING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
BIT...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RAIN ON AVERAGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO AGGRAVATE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  70  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  70  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  60  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  80  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  69  83  65 /  70  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  70  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  60  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  60  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  70  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  60  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  69  83  65 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
DRT AFTER 02Z WITH ISOLATED CELLS OVER MEXICO POSSIBLY FORMING AND
JOINING INTO THE LINE FROM MEXICO BY 03Z. IMPACTS OF THE LINE
SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z ALONG I-35 WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION AT ROUGHLY 3 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET. SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS OF THE LINE COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KNOTS...WITH THE CHANCE OF STRONG GUSTS DECREASING GRADUALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOWNDRAFT AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKIES...BUT WITH THE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
WILL SHOW MORE PESSIMISTIC SKIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  69  83  65 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...
REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 282007
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  69  83  65 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 282007
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RICH MOISTURE
PLUME. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...INCLUDING TROPICAL
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AUSTIN/ROUND ROCK AREA. OVERALL THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
COMING OUT OF WEST TEXAS AND STORMS COMING OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...ALL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE BURROUGHS OF
MEXICO COULD CROSS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MUCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL
SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED.

SEVERAL HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THE WEST TEXAS CONVECTION
INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING WITH PROPAGATION SOUTHEAST INTO A
STRENGTHENING 35 KT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS UP THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 02Z-06Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...FOR MAINLY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL BE ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OF A COLD POOL DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
COMPLEX. THE HRRR AND NAM12 DO BRING THE COMPLEX THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WHILE TEXAS TECH 4KM WRF AND GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY...AND OUT OF AN ABUDANCE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...TO EXPAND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. A
ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA MAY STABILIZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX...LEAVING
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...MAY
RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SHARPENING ACROSS
EAST TX/AR/LA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHER
PWATS WILL REMAIN POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT BETTER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IF THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WITH A
WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY REMOVING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES/COASTAL PRAIRIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS POOLED
AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS WITH TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  84  68  84  65 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  85  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  68  82  65 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  73  86  68 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  69  83  65 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  87  71  85  67 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  84  67 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  68 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281907 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT AVIATION
FORECASTS. WE DID INCLUDE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SITES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR REGION...THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR DRT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS OUR SITES ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY. CLEARING
IS OCCURRING AND CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM MAKING IT EAST INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOCAL EXTENSION EASTWARD COULD BE
REQUIRED...DEPENDENT ON TRENDS. ZFP/GRID UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  69  85  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  69  82  66 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  88  73  86  69 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  70  84  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  86  71  86  68 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  85  68 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  69 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  72  85  69 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  72  86  69 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281907 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT AVIATION
FORECASTS. WE DID INCLUDE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SITES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR REGION...THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR DRT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS OUR SITES ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY. CLEARING
IS OCCURRING AND CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM MAKING IT EAST INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOCAL EXTENSION EASTWARD COULD BE
REQUIRED...DEPENDENT ON TRENDS. ZFP/GRID UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  69  85  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  69  82  66 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  88  73  86  69 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  70  84  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  86  71  86  68 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  85  68 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  69 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  72  85  69 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  72  86  69 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281907
AFDEWX
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT AVIATION
FORECASTS. WE DID INCLUDE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SITES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR REGION...THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR DRT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS OUR SITES ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY. CLEARING
IS OCCURRING AND CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM MAKING IT EAST INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOCAL EXTENSION EASTWARD COULD BE
REQUIRED...DEPENDENT ON TRENDS. ZFP/GRID UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  69  85  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  69  82  66 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  88  73  86  69 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  70  84  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  86  71  86  68 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  85  68 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  69 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  72  85  69 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  72  86  69 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281907
AFDEWX
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT AVIATION
FORECASTS. WE DID INCLUDE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SITES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR REGION...THEN
SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR DRT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS OUR SITES ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY. CLEARING
IS OCCURRING AND CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM MAKING IT EAST INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOCAL EXTENSION EASTWARD COULD BE
REQUIRED...DEPENDENT ON TRENDS. ZFP/GRID UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  70  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  69  85  66 /  50  50  30  60  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  71  85  68 /  50  40  30  60  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  69  82  66 /  60  40  30  60  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  88  73  86  69 /  70  20  20  50  60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  84  70  84  67 /  50  40  30  60  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  86  71  86  68 /  60  30  30  50  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  70  85  68 /  50  50  30  60  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  85  69 /  40  50  30  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  72  85  69 /  50  40  30  60  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  72  86  69 /  50  40  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...
BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LEE...
LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281750 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY. CLEARING
IS OCCURRING AND CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM MAKING IT EAST INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOCAL EXTENSION EASTWARD COULD BE
REQUIRED...DEPENDENT ON TRENDS. ZFP/GRID UPDATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  40  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  40  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  40  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  40  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  40  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  40  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  40  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  30  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  30  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...
KINNEY...LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281750 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY. CLEARING
IS OCCURRING AND CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE. SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM MAKING IT EAST INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOCAL EXTENSION EASTWARD COULD BE
REQUIRED...DEPENDENT ON TRENDS. ZFP/GRID UPDATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  40  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  40  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  40  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  40  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  40  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  40  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  40  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  30  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  30  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...
KINNEY...LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281506
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...
KINNEY...LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281506
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAKER CAP AND BREAKS OCCURRING IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH ARE ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. THIS TREND...WITH AN INCREASE
POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE...IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS MEXICO HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON
SATELLITE...ALBEIT SLOWLY. ELEVATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY SHORTLY. THE 700MB CAP IS STRONGER ON THE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM12 AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING BY AFTERNOON...ASSUMING WE GET
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. IF THIS HAPPENS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO STRENGTHENING RIO GRANDE
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE EARLY 12Z
GUIDANCE THAT THE CONCERN FOR ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THINKING...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WOULD LIKE TO AWAIT FULL
SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INCREASE TO POPS AND
EXPANSION EASTWARD OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...
KINNEY...LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE TAFS. LOW CIGS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOME BY MID-MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO...AND HAVE PROB30 AT DRT. LATER TAFS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
FEEL FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY TSRA/SHRA. CIGS WILL DROP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATES CONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280923
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATESCONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280923
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATESCONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280923
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATESCONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280923
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AT 4 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND IN
MEXICO AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD VAL VERDE COUNTY. THE HRRR WAS
THE WINNING HI RES MODEL IN REGARDS TO THIS FORMATION AND EVOLVES
THIS ACTIVITY INTO A NORTH SOUTH LINE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN ZONES BY 12-13Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR KDRT SHOW A STOUT
CAP AT 700 MB AND LOTS OVER 100 J/KG OF CIN TO PREVENT SURFACE
BASED PARCELS FROM REALIZING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
THAT HAVE CROSSED THE RIVER SO FAR THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SURVIVE TOO LONG AND THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. STILL...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS OUT WEST WHERE THESE STORMS
ARE TRACKING THROUGH 18Z. QPF VALUES SHOULD STAY LOW THOUGH.

MOVING FORWARD...THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE DRY LINE OUT WEST AND
MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING AND
MAX INSTABILITY. JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL EFFICIENTLY INITIATESCONVECTION
BY AROUND 21Z ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS THREAT MAY IMPACT WESTERN VAL VERDE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS WHY SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE DRY LINE SHOW DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE BOUNDARY...ALSO INVERTED V
PROFILES STAND OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING HEALTHY
OUTFLOWS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FURTHER CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHAT WARRANTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE ESCARPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND HALF ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING BUT IT WONT TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...EVEN OUT IN THESE WESTERN
AREAS. ADDITIONAL THREATS WITH THIS LINE COULD INCLUDE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

300 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY
BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IT...THE LINE OF STORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. IF SO...THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST GUESS AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...DID NOT INCLUDE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR OR EAST. HOWEVER...AN
EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON A COLD FRONT
WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY. IF SO...OUR
NORTHERN ZONES COULD HAVE ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WOULD
STALL AND WEAK BUT VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW CREATES PROLONGED
THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
BEGINS A TRANSITION PERIOD INTO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THIS
WOULD BE THE PREFERRED OUTCOME AS ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK...A RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP WITH
EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING NORTHERLY. THE DRY LINE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NM/TX BORDER AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SO ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN PLAY MOST
AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. A VERY WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  70  85 /  30  50  50  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  71  84  69  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  85  71  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  70  83  69  82 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  70  88  73  86 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  71  84  70  84 /  30  50  50  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  71  86  71  86 /  30  50  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  72  84  70  85 /  20  50  50  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  85  71  85 /  20  30  50  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  73  86  72  85 /  20  50  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  73  86  72  86 /  20  50  40  20  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BANDERA...EDWARDS...GILLESPIE...KERR...KINNEY...
LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AND WILL DROP
TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT DRT CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR BY AROUND 08Z AND THEN TO IFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THAT.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE AT DRT AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE... /FFA CANCELLED/
WHILE THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION TRIED TO
REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE
STABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ESCARPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH WAS IN EFFECT. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION FOR A POSSIBLE NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS AS THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD
SHOW LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  72  85  70  85 /  30  40  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  72  85  70  84 /  30  40  40  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  73  85  70  85 /  30  30  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  71  82  68  83 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  70  86  72  87 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  69  84 /  30  40  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  85  70  86 /  30  40  40  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  69  84 /  30  30  40  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  85  71  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  74  85  71  85 /  30  40  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  74  86  72  86 /  30  30  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AND WILL DROP
TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT DRT CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR BY AROUND 08Z AND THEN TO IFR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THAT.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE AT DRT AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE... /FFA CANCELLED/
WHILE THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION TRIED TO
REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE
STABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ESCARPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH WAS IN EFFECT. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION FOR A POSSIBLE NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS AS THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD
SHOW LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  72  85  70  85 /  30  40  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  72  85  70  84 /  30  40  40  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  73  85  70  85 /  30  30  40  20  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  71  82  68  83 /  30  50  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  70  86  72  87 /  50  60  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  69  84 /  30  40  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  85  70  86 /  30  40  40  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  69  84 /  30  30  40  20  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  85  71  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  74  85  71  85 /  30  40  40  20  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  74  86  72  86 /  30  30  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280213
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE... /FFA CANCELLED/
WHILE THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION TRIED TO
REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE
STABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ESCARPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH WAS IN EFFECT. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION FOR A POSSIBLE NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS AS THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD
SHOW LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  20  30  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  20  30  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  20  50  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  20  30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  20  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280213
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE... /FFA CANCELLED/
WHILE THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION TRIED TO
REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE
STABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ESCARPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH WAS IN EFFECT. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION FOR A POSSIBLE NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS AS THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD
SHOW LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  20  30  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  20  30  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  20  50  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  20  30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  20  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280213
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE... /FFA CANCELLED/
WHILE THERE WAS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CONVECTION TRIED TO
REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE
STABLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ESCARPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY
WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE WATCH WAS IN EFFECT. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A MORE LIKELY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION FOR A POSSIBLE NEW FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS AS THE INCOMING 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD
SHOW LESS CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  20  30  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  20  30  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  20  50  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  20  30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  20  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 272318
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  40  40  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  30  30  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  40  40  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  40  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  40  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...
LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 272318
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
618 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL CHANCES
OF CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE
BUT MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A LATER TIME. MVFR...THEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  40  40  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  30  30  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  40  40  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  40  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  40  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...
LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 272005
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  40  40  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  30  30  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  40  40  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  40  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  40  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 272005
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING THE ONE THAT HELPED STORMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS BLANCO AND TRAVIS COUNTIES MID MORNING. THERE ARE STILL
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON GOING ACROSS WESTERN LLANO COUNTY AS THEY
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY COME TO AN END WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...LATER THIS EVENING...A LINE OR
COMPLEX OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSHING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND NORTH OF THE REMNANT OF THIS MORNING SURFACE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME...SOME HIRES MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING CONVECTION NORTH OF BURNET AND
LLANO COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING BUT DISSIPATE ACTIVITY AROUND 8
OR 9 PM. LATEST ECM SOLUTION IS NOT SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. WITH ALL OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IN
PLACE...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM
THURSDAY. THIS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON GOING FLOOD ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LITTLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT WILL TAKE
FOR AREAS TO FLOOD IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AS A REMINDER...WE
HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHT`S RAIN DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS
MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AREA
ROADS...UNDERPASSES...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALL CREEKS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER DAYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  87  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  86  72  85  70 /  40  40  40  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  73  85  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  71  82  68 /  40  40  50  40  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  72 /  30  30  60  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  86  72  84  69 /  40  40  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  73  85  70 /  20  40  40  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  86  72  84  69 /  30  40  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  87  74  85  71 /  20  40  30  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  87  74  85  71 /  20  30  40  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  74  86  72 /  20  30  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...GILLESPIE...HAYS...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





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