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000
FXUS64 KEWX 242031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SETTLED
DOWN ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A HANDLE ON PROSPECTS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SHORT...THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN
ANTONIO NORTH TO GEORGETOWN HAS STABILIZED ENOUGH THAT NO FURTHER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL PLAINS ARE LIKELY ALSO
STABILIZED...BUT PROXIMITY TO THE SEA-BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING
TO THE EAST MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO...SO LEFT POPS IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WERE
NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY IS STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS STARTING FRIDAY...SO LOOK FOR A
REBOUND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS...MAINTAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA FOR TEMPS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE 100-105 RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND POSSIBLY WITH AN SPS
ISSUED TOMORROW TO HIGHLIGHT SPECIFIC AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST
AIR AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARE SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR OFFICIAL
SEVEN-DAY-FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
ONE FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA...AND THEN WASH OUT
AND/OR STALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ARE FAR TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPS...AS THE MODELS LIKELY DO NOT
SEE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR DUE TO POORER VERTICAL RESOLUTION...SO
THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPS 3-5F BELOW MOS FOR NOW. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WE WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES AND RAISE POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS OBSERVATIONS
OF THE COOL AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  98  76  99  76 /  -    0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  73  98  75 /  -    0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  97  75 /  -    0  -    0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  99  77 100  78 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  75  97  76 /  -    0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  97  74  99  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  96  75  96  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  97  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 242031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SETTLED
DOWN ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A HANDLE ON PROSPECTS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SHORT...THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN
ANTONIO NORTH TO GEORGETOWN HAS STABILIZED ENOUGH THAT NO FURTHER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL PLAINS ARE LIKELY ALSO
STABILIZED...BUT PROXIMITY TO THE SEA-BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING
TO THE EAST MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO...SO LEFT POPS IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WERE
NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY IS STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS STARTING FRIDAY...SO LOOK FOR A
REBOUND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS...MAINTAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA FOR TEMPS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE 100-105 RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND POSSIBLY WITH AN SPS
ISSUED TOMORROW TO HIGHLIGHT SPECIFIC AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST
AIR AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARE SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR OFFICIAL
SEVEN-DAY-FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
ONE FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA...AND THEN WASH OUT
AND/OR STALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
ARE FAR TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPS...AS THE MODELS LIKELY DO NOT
SEE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR DUE TO POORER VERTICAL RESOLUTION...SO
THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPS 3-5F BELOW MOS FOR NOW. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD WE WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES AND RAISE POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS OBSERVATIONS
OF THE COOL AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  98  76  99  76 /  -    0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  73  98  75 /  -    0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  97  75 /  -    0  -    0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  99  77 100  78 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  75  97  76 /  -    0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  97  74  99  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  97  74  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  96  75  96  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  97  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241822
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
122 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND RE-CONFIGURE THE POP GRADIENT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT ANALYSES OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH NOW JUST A LONE TSTM NORTH OF AUS MOVING SW INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. LATEST HI RESOLUTION RUNS OF HRRR AND TTECH SEEM
TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON TRENDS...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT...
AND SHOW ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH BEST CHANCES TO MENTION VCSH IN
TAF AT DRT. SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE
TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR.
THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY
DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT
LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76 100  76  99  77 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  73  98  74 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  99  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  74  97  74 /  30  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  77 101  79 /  20  -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  75  98  76 /  20  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  74  99  75 /  20  -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  74  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  98  76  97  77 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  77 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  76 /  20  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 241822
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
122 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND RE-CONFIGURE THE POP GRADIENT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT ANALYSES OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH NOW JUST A LONE TSTM NORTH OF AUS MOVING SW INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. LATEST HI RESOLUTION RUNS OF HRRR AND TTECH SEEM
TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON TRENDS...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT...
AND SHOW ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH BEST CHANCES TO MENTION VCSH IN
TAF AT DRT. SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE
TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR.
THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY
DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT
LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76 100  76  99  77 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  73  98  74 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  99  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  74  97  74 /  30  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  77 101  79 /  20  -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  75  98  76 /  20  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  74  99  75 /  20  -   -    0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  74  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  98  76  97  77 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  77 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  76 /  20  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH NOW JUST A LONE TSTM NORTH OF AUS MOVING SW INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. LATEST HI RESOLUTION RUNS OF HRRR AND TTECH SEEM
TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON TRENDS...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT...
AND SHOW ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH BEST CHANCES TO MENTION VCSH IN
TAF AT DRT. SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE
TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR.
THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY
DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT
LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76 100  76  99 /  30  30  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  99  73  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  73  99  73  99 /  40  40  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  97  74  97 /  40  30  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  77 101 /  20  20  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  75  98 /  30  30  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  98  74  99 /  30  30  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  98  74  98 /  40  40  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  75  98  76  97 /  70  50  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  76  98  76  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  75  98  75  99 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 241744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. COVERAGE HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH NOW JUST A LONE TSTM NORTH OF AUS MOVING SW INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. LATEST HI RESOLUTION RUNS OF HRRR AND TTECH SEEM
TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON TRENDS...ALTHOUGH NOT PERFECT...
AND SHOW ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...WITH BEST CHANCES TO MENTION VCSH IN
TAF AT DRT. SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD END AFTER SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE
TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR.
THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY
DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT
LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76 100  76  99 /  30  30  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  99  73  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  73  99  73  99 /  40  40  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  97  74  97 /  40  30  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  77 101 /  20  20  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  75  98 /  30  30  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  98  74  99 /  30  30  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  98  74  98 /  40  40  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  75  98  76  97 /  70  50  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  76  98  76  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  75  98  75  99 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241419
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE
TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR.
THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY
DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT
LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76 100  76  99 /  30  30  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  99  73  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  73  99  73  99 /  40  40  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  97  74  97 /  40  30  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  77 101 /  20  20  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  75  98 /  30  30  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  98  74  99 /  30  30  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  98  74  98 /  40  40  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  75  98  76  97 /  70  50  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  76  98  76  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  75  98  75  99 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 241419
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE
TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR.
THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY
DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT
LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76 100  76  99 /  30  30  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  99  73  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  73  99  73  99 /  40  40  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  97  74  97 /  40  30  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  77 101 /  20  20  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  98  75  98 /  30  30  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  98  74  99 /  30  30  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  98  74  98 /  40  40  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  75  98  76  97 /  70  50  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  76  98  76  98 /  30  30  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  75  98  75  99 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241147 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76 100  76  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  99  73  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  99  73  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  97  74  97 /  20  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77 100  77 101 /  10  10  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  98  75  98 /  20  20  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  74  99 /  20  20  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  98  74  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  75  98  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  76  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  98  75  99 /  20  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 241147 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
TODAY`S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS
PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76 100  76  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  99  73  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  99  73  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  97  74  97 /  20  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77 100  77 101 /  10  10  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  98  75  98 /  20  20  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  74  99 /  20  20  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  98  74  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  75  98  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  76  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  98  75  99 /  20  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76 100  76  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  99  73  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  99  73  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  97  74  97 /  20  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77 100  77 101 /  10  10  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  98  75  98 /  20  20  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  74  99 /  20  20  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  98  74  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  75  98  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  76  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  98  75  99 /  20  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 240852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT
BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES
SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON
THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT
WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76 100  76  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  99  73  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  99  73  99 /  20  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  97  74  97 /  20  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  77 100  77 101 /  10  10  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  98  75  98 /  20  20  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  74  99 /  20  20  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  98  74  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  75  98  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  76  98 /  20  20  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  98  75  99 /  20  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE SE OF
A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS
AS PROBS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LATER INCLUSION. ELY WINDS 4 TO 10 KTS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO SELY ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE WEST FROM EASTERN TEXAS WILL CAUSE A BRIEF
WIND GUST UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST-WARD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO...WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING EXPECTED. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...STORMS WOULD ENTER OUR
FAR NERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
CWA. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL RESEND ZONES SHORTLY FOR
UPDATE TEMPORAL WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY MAY
IMPACT THE APPROACHES TO KDRT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
KDRT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR COASTAL PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES EXPECTED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S AND SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25






000
FXUS64 KEWX 240435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE SE OF
A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS
AS PROBS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LATER INCLUSION. ELY WINDS 4 TO 10 KTS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO SELY ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE WEST FROM EASTERN TEXAS WILL CAUSE A BRIEF
WIND GUST UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST-WARD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO...WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING EXPECTED. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...STORMS WOULD ENTER OUR
FAR NERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
CWA. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL RESEND ZONES SHORTLY FOR
UPDATE TEMPORAL WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY MAY
IMPACT THE APPROACHES TO KDRT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
KDRT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR COASTAL PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES EXPECTED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S AND SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240200 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST-WARD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO...WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING EXPECTED. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...STORMS WOULD ENTER OUR
FAR NERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
CWA. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL RESEND ZONES SHORTLY FOR
UPDATE TEMPORAL WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY MAY
IMPACT THE APPROACHES TO KDRT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
KDRT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR COASTAL PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES EXPECTED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S AND SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 240200 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST-WARD
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR OR SO...WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING EXPECTED. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...STORMS WOULD ENTER OUR
FAR NERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
CWA. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL RESEND ZONES SHORTLY FOR
UPDATE TEMPORAL WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY MAY
IMPACT THE APPROACHES TO KDRT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
KDRT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR COASTAL PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES EXPECTED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S AND SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 232344
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY MAY
IMPACT THE APPROACHES TO KDRT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
KDRT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR COASTAL PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES EXPECTED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S AND SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25






000
FXUS64 KEWX 232344
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY MAY
IMPACT THE APPROACHES TO KDRT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
KDRT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR COASTAL PLAINS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...NO IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES EXPECTED. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. EXCEPT...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF A KPEZ TO K3T5 LINE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS MAINLY FROM THE S AND SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 232049
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 232049
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
349 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE...COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND STORMS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AT
MID-LEVELS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY SUNSET. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN PLACE TOMORROW...
WITH ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKIES. ENOUGH OF THE
RIDGE/S INFLUENCE STAYS ACROSS TEXAS TO KEEP OUR AREA HOT AND DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN
ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...OUR SEVEN-
DAY FORECAST IS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SO ONLY LOW POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 90...BUT THE TREND LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT (BOTH COOLER AND WETTER) AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75  99  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  99  74  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  98  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  99  78 /  10  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  98  75 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  97  74 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  97  73 /  20  20  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  75  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  97  76 /  20  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  97  75  97  75 /  20  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 231744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PRAIRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT FROM OUTFLOWS...
MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREA TAF SITES. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX INTO
NORTH TX THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH TX CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
A LOOK THE 12Z DRT/LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
WITH MINIMALLY-CAPPED PROFILES. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR IS SPARSE...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35. THE LATEST NSSL AND TEXAS TECH WRFS SHOW
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...MOSTLY AFTER 21Z. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO FORM ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ANY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 MPH. OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW/SCT DECK AROUND 4KFT TO 5KFT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
EASTERLY FROM MIDDAY TO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIODS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PRAIRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT FROM OUTFLOWS...
MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREA TAF SITES. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX INTO
NORTH TX THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THE NORTH TX CONVECTION COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
A LOOK THE 12Z DRT/LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
WITH MINIMALLY-CAPPED PROFILES. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR IS SPARSE...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35. THE LATEST NSSL AND TEXAS TECH WRFS SHOW
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...MOSTLY AFTER 21Z. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO FORM ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ANY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 MPH. OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW/SCT DECK AROUND 4KFT TO 5KFT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
EASTERLY FROM MIDDAY TO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 231500
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A LOOK THE 12Z DRT/LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
WITH MINIMALLY-CAPPED PROFILES. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR IS SPARSE...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35. THE LATEST NSSL AND TEXAS TECH WRFS SHOW
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...MOSTLY AFTER 21Z. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO FORM ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ANY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 MPH. OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW/SCT DECK AROUND 4KFT TO 5KFT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
EASTERLY FROM MIDDAY TO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231500
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A LOOK THE 12Z DRT/LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
WITH MINIMALLY-CAPPED PROFILES. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR IS SPARSE...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35. THE LATEST NSSL AND TEXAS TECH WRFS SHOW
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS...MOSTLY AFTER 21Z. ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO FORM ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ANY STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 MPH. OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW/SCT DECK AROUND 4KFT TO 5KFT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
EASTERLY FROM MIDDAY TO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 231106 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW/SCT DECK AROUND 4KFT TO 5KFT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
EASTERLY FROM MIDDAY TO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231106 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW/SCT DECK AROUND 4KFT TO 5KFT IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
EASTERLY FROM MIDDAY TO THE EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 230854
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 230854
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE 23/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS THE RIDGE IS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FLATTEN AS AN UPPER
LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE...EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 90...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION. THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GIDDINGS TO KARNES
CITY LINE. IN ADDITION...THE HI-RES MODELS ALONG WITH THE SREF
OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOW QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL OPT TO
MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MENTIONED REGION
FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES JUST
YET...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS MAY IMPACT
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO FAR SOUTH TO
BRING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION...SO
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL SETUP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND DGEX
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE/LL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S. WE DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEXT TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
COLD FRONT AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  73  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  73 100  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  98  74  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  99  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  72  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  99  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  75  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  99  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  75  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 230450
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME E-SELY 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR STRATUS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS.
SFC WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT BACKING TO THE SE-E WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 230450
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VRB
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME E-SELY 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR STRATUS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS.
SFC WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT BACKING TO THE SE-E WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 222336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR STRATUS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS.
SFC WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT BACKING TO THE SE-E WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 222336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR STRATUS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE NEAR DAWN HOURS.
SFC WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT BACKING TO THE SE-E WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 222038
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 222038
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS PUT A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY STAYS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WE DID ADD SMALL POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS
AS PW INCREASES (QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NAM...LESS SO IN THE
GFS) AND THE SEA-BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TUTT-LOW (OR AT LEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH) NOW OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ALL THE WAY TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND BEYOND. WE STAYED NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG SURFACE FOCUS OTHER THAN
THE SEA-BREEZE...AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND LOWER PW TO
THE WEST...IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING WEST.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-CONFIGURES TO A MORE
MERIDIONAL (NORTH-SOUTH) ORIENTATION...AS A DEEP TROUGH FORMS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE ORIENTATION CHANGE...THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS FORECAST RANGE TO
MENTION POPS IN THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN WE WILL BE MONITORING
THIS IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  75 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  98  73  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  73  97  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78 100  79 /  -   10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  99  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  73  98  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 221733
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 18Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER I-35 TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT
THE WRF SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THUS VFR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SOUTH CENTRAL TX TAFS. TOWARD THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF
PERIODS...A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM EAST
TX INTO CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLY GENERATE CONVECTION. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOWS
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TABULAR PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT TO RE-TREND
HOURLY VALUES THROUGH 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75 100  75 /   0  -   10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  73  98  74 /  -   -   10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  73  99  73 /  -   -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  73  97  73 /   0  -   -   10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 102  78 102  79 /  -   10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  74  98  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  97  73  99  74 /  -   -   10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  75  96  77 /  -   20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  98  76 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  74  99  75 /  -   -   10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 221733
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 18Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED OVER I-35 TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT
THE WRF SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THUS VFR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SOUTH CENTRAL TX TAFS. TOWARD THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF
PERIODS...A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM EAST
TX INTO CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLY GENERATE CONVECTION. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOWS
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TABULAR PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT TO RE-TREND
HOURLY VALUES THROUGH 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  75 100  75 /   0  -   10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  73  98  74 /  -   -   10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  73  99  73 /  -   -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  73  97  73 /   0  -   -   10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 102  78 102  79 /  -   10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  74  98  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  73  98  73 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  97  73  99  74 /  -   -   10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  75  96  77 /  -   20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  98  76 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  74  99  75 /  -   -   10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 221428
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
928 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TABULAR PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT TO RE-TREND
HOURLY VALUES THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 221428
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
928 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TABULAR PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT TO RE-TREND
HOURLY VALUES THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 221129 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 221129 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAT
AND KSSF. CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO REDUCE
THE COVERAGE OF THE MVFR CIGS. FOR THE MOST PART WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT FOG AT KAUS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ALL FOG AND CEILINGS WILL
BE GONE BY 14Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AFTER 14Z AT
SPEEDS OF 7-10 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS DECREASE TO
3-7 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220837
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220837
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE/LL OPT TO CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COASTAL
PLAINS BEING FAVORED DUE TO RECENT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
ALL AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AND FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTRACT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IF THIS PATTERN DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75 100 /   0   0  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  74  97  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  74  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  97  73  97 /   0   0  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          100  78 102  78 102 /   0  -   10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  74 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  73  97  73  99 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  75  96 /  -   -   20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  97  76  98 /   0   0  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  99  74  99 /   0  -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 220457
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA IN THE NEAR-
DAYBREAK HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KSSF...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A TEMPO
GROUP. WINDS WILL BE SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND
KAUS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR BETTER. SFC WINDS WILL BE
SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND AS GROUND MOISTURE IS BAKED
OUT OF AREA SOILS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL SEE ENHANCED
HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH DEEPER SOIL DEPTH
BEFORE REACHING BEDROCK. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS...SO THE
THREAT OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AROUND 105 FOR ANOTHER DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES SPREADING WEST FROM
EAST TX. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
AMONG SYNOPTIC MODELS TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF RAIN. BELIEVE THE
12Z NAM WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH TX TODAY
AND AM SKEPTICAL THAT MOISTURE WILL COME IN AS AGGRESSIVE AS
ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY. DPROG-DT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
INCREASE IN AN E-W EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT LESS LIKELY FOR PERTURBATIONS FROM DRIFTING SW FROM
NE TX AS WAS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF.

THE EXTENSION OF THE E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. IF THE RIDGING TREND
CONTINUES...MULTIPLE DAYS OF 100 DEGREE PLUS HEAT MAY BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  97  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 101  78 102  78 /  -    0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74 100  74 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  77  96  75 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  75 /  -    0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220210
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND
KAUS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR BETTER. SFC WINDS WILL BE
SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND AS GROUND MOISTURE IS BAKED
OUT OF AREA SOILS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL SEE ENHANCED
HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH DEEPER SOIL DEPTH
BEFORE REACHING BEDROCK. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS...SO THE
THREAT OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AROUND 105 FOR ANOTHER DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES SPREADING WEST FROM
EAST TX. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
AMONG SYNOPTIC MODELS TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF RAIN. BELIEVE THE
12Z NAM WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH TX TODAY
AND AM SKEPTICAL THAT MOISTURE WILL COME IN AS AGGRESSIVE AS
ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY. DPROG-DT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
INCREASE IN AN E-W EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT LESS LIKELY FOR PERTURBATIONS FROM DRIFTING SW FROM
NE TX AS WAS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF.

THE EXTENSION OF THE E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. IF THE RIDGING TREND
CONTINUES...MULTIPLE DAYS OF 100 DEGREE PLUS HEAT MAY BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  97  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 101  78 102  78 /  -    0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74 100  74 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  77  96  75 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  75 /  -    0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220210
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND
KAUS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR BETTER. SFC WINDS WILL BE
SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND AS GROUND MOISTURE IS BAKED
OUT OF AREA SOILS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL SEE ENHANCED
HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH DEEPER SOIL DEPTH
BEFORE REACHING BEDROCK. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS...SO THE
THREAT OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AROUND 105 FOR ANOTHER DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES SPREADING WEST FROM
EAST TX. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
AMONG SYNOPTIC MODELS TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF RAIN. BELIEVE THE
12Z NAM WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH TX TODAY
AND AM SKEPTICAL THAT MOISTURE WILL COME IN AS AGGRESSIVE AS
ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY. DPROG-DT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
INCREASE IN AN E-W EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT LESS LIKELY FOR PERTURBATIONS FROM DRIFTING SW FROM
NE TX AS WAS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF.

THE EXTENSION OF THE E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. IF THE RIDGING TREND
CONTINUES...MULTIPLE DAYS OF 100 DEGREE PLUS HEAT MAY BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  97  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 101  78 102  78 /  -    0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74 100  74 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  77  96  75 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  75 /  -    0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 212327
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND
KAUS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR BETTER. SFC WINDS WILL BE
SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND AS GROUND MOISTURE IS BAKED
OUT OF AREA SOILS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL SEE ENHANCED
HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH DEEPER SOIL DEPTH
BEFORE REACHING BEDROCK. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS...SO THE
THREAT OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AROUND 105 FOR ANOTHER DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES SPREADING WEST FROM
EAST TX. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
AMONG SYNOPTIC MODELS TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF RAIN. BELIEVE THE
12Z NAM WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH TX TODAY
AND AM SKEPTICAL THAT MOISTURE WILL COME IN AS AGGRESSIVE AS
ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY. DPROG-DT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
INCREASE IN AN E-W EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT LESS LIKELY FOR PERTURBATIONS FROM DRIFTING SW FROM
NE TX AS WAS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF.

THE EXTENSION OF THE E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. IF THE RIDGING TREND
CONTINUES...MULTIPLE DAYS OF 100 DEGREE PLUS HEAT MAY BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  97  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 101  78 102  78 /  -    0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74 100  74 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  77  96  75 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  75 /  -    0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 212327
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND
KAUS...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR BETTER. SFC WINDS WILL BE
SE-SLY 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND AS GROUND MOISTURE IS BAKED
OUT OF AREA SOILS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL SEE ENHANCED
HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH DEEPER SOIL DEPTH
BEFORE REACHING BEDROCK. TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS...SO THE
THREAT OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH AROUND 105 FOR ANOTHER DAY WEDNESDAY...AS
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES SPREADING WEST FROM
EAST TX. SOME OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
AMONG SYNOPTIC MODELS TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF RAIN. BELIEVE THE
12Z NAM WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH TX TODAY
AND AM SKEPTICAL THAT MOISTURE WILL COME IN AS AGGRESSIVE AS
ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY. DPROG-DT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
INCREASE IN AN E-W EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT LESS LIKELY FOR PERTURBATIONS FROM DRIFTING SW FROM
NE TX AS WAS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF.

THE EXTENSION OF THE E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONTINUES IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. IF THE RIDGING TREND
CONTINUES...MULTIPLE DAYS OF 100 DEGREE PLUS HEAT MAY BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  98  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  97  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  73  97  73 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 101  78 102  78 /  -    0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74 100  74 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  77  96  75 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  99  75 /  -    0  -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00/12







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