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000
FXUS64 KEWX 191505
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. ALSO BUMPED RAIN
CHANCES UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM KERRVILLE TO
SEGUIN TO LA GRANGE. THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS
HELPED THESE SHOWERS FORM ALONG THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS BAND OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION AND SHOW IT PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD
AND MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. FOR THIS REASON
WE ARE NOT GOING TO REISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WE WILL REASSESS A WATCH ISSUANCE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
TROPICAL. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOSTLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KAUS THROUGH 15Z...THEN AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
ROUGHLY 21Z TO 03Z...BUT MOST LIKELY AT KAUS. LIFR AT KAUS THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SUSTAINED 10KT AT KDRT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE SOME SLIGHT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT
HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DISSIPATE. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BECOMING ISOLATED MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING
A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
MAINTAINED NO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  73  91  72  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  73  92 /  50  30  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  89  72  90 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  91  73  91 /  50  30  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  74  90  74  91 /  50  30  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  92  75  92 /  50  30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  75  93 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191505
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1005 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. ALSO BUMPED RAIN
CHANCES UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT RADAR PICTURE SHOWS SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM KERRVILLE TO
SEGUIN TO LA GRANGE. THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS
HELPED THESE SHOWERS FORM ALONG THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS BAND OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION AND SHOW IT PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD
AND MORE SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. FOR THIS REASON
WE ARE NOT GOING TO REISSUE THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IF
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WE WILL REASSESS A WATCH ISSUANCE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS
TROPICAL. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOSTLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KAUS THROUGH 15Z...THEN AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
ROUGHLY 21Z TO 03Z...BUT MOST LIKELY AT KAUS. LIFR AT KAUS THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SUSTAINED 10KT AT KDRT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE SOME SLIGHT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT
HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DISSIPATE. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BECOMING ISOLATED MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING
A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
MAINTAINED NO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  73  91  72  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  73  92 /  50  30  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  89  72  90 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  91  73  91 /  50  30  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  74  90  74  91 /  50  30  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  92  75  92 /  50  30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  75  93 /  50  30  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOSTLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KAUS THROUGH 15Z...THEN AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
ROUGHLY 21Z TO 03Z...BUT MOST LIKELY AT KAUS. LIFR AT KAUS THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SUSTAINED 10KT AT KDRT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE SOME SLIGHT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT
HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DISSIPATE. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BECOMING ISOLATED MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING
A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
MAINTAINED NO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  72  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  89  72  90 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  91  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  74  90  74  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  92  75  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  75  93 /  40  30  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOSTLY
IN THE VCNTY OF KAUS THROUGH 15Z...THEN AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
ROUGHLY 21Z TO 03Z...BUT MOST LIKELY AT KAUS. LIFR AT KAUS THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SUSTAINED 10KT AT KDRT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE SOME SLIGHT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT
HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DISSIPATE. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BECOMING ISOLATED MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING
A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
MAINTAINED NO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  72  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  89  72  90 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  91  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  74  90  74  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  92  75  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  75  93 /  40  30  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE SOME SLIGHT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT
HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DISSIPATE. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BECOMING ISOLATED MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING
A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
MAINTAINED NO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  72  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  89  72  90 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  91  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  74  90  74  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  92  75  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  75  93 /  40  30  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04








000
FXUS64 KEWX 190905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO
INTO TEXAS. SOME MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.
PWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE SOME SLIGHT RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IN AREAS THAT
HAD VERY HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT HAS ENDED FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE DISSIPATE. MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
BECOMING ISOLATED MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOWER
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING
A DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
MAINTAINED NO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  72  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  89  72  90 /  40  30  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  92  74  92 /  40  30  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  91  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  74  90  74  91 /  40  30  30  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  92  75  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  93  75  93 /  40  30  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04









000
FXUS64 KEWX 190447 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS WANED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AERODROMES
...LEAVING VFR TO MVFR CLOUDINESS BEHIND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. FOR
FRIDAY...OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION IN 3 OUT OF 4 TAF
SITES GIVEN THE EXPECTED ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. A RETURN TO MVFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
OUTFLOW MODIFIED AIR HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIR OVER
CENTRAL TEXS WITH CONVECTIVE FOCUS REPOSITIIONING MAINLY ALONG AND
SW OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW OVERNIGHT POPS TRENDING SW WITH THE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
POPS AND QPF WERE UPDATED IN THE LATEST FORECAST TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT OVER AUS. SLIGHT OVERRUNNING OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX SHOULD MEAN AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE FFA AND NUDGE THE POPS FOR NE COUNTY DOWNWARD
ONLY BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO. SOME LOCALLIZED FLOODING COULD
STILL DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR I-10 TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THE BASIC FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS A NEW PUBLISH OF
THE QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER EVENING RAINS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  70  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  70  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  70  50  30  30  30
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190447 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1147 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS WANED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AERODROMES
...LEAVING VFR TO MVFR CLOUDINESS BEHIND. THESE TRENDS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. FOR
FRIDAY...OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION IN 3 OUT OF 4 TAF
SITES GIVEN THE EXPECTED ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TOMORROW. A RETURN TO MVFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER THE
CONVECTION ENDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
OUTFLOW MODIFIED AIR HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIR OVER
CENTRAL TEXS WITH CONVECTIVE FOCUS REPOSITIIONING MAINLY ALONG AND
SW OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW OVERNIGHT POPS TRENDING SW WITH THE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
POPS AND QPF WERE UPDATED IN THE LATEST FORECAST TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT OVER AUS. SLIGHT OVERRUNNING OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX SHOULD MEAN AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE FFA AND NUDGE THE POPS FOR NE COUNTY DOWNWARD
ONLY BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO. SOME LOCALLIZED FLOODING COULD
STILL DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR I-10 TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THE BASIC FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS A NEW PUBLISH OF
THE QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER EVENING RAINS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  70  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  70  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  70  50  30  30  30
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 190443
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW MODIFIED AIR HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIR OVER
CENTRAL TEXS WITH CONVECTIVE FOCUS REPOSITIIONING MAINLY ALONG AND
SW OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW OVERNIGHT POPS TRENDING SW WITH THE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
POPS AND QPF WERE UPDATED IN THE LATEST FORECAST TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT OVER AUS. SLIGHT OVERRUNNING OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX SHOULD MEAN AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE FFA AND NUDGE THE POPS FOR NE COUNTY DOWNWARD
ONLY BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO. SOME LOCALLIZED FLOODING COULD
STILL DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR I-10 TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THE BASIC FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS A NEW PUBLISH OF
THE QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER EVENING RAINS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  70  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  70  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  70  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 190443
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW MODIFIED AIR HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIR OVER
CENTRAL TEXS WITH CONVECTIVE FOCUS REPOSITIIONING MAINLY ALONG AND
SW OF A LINE FROM ROCKSPRINGS TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW OVERNIGHT POPS TRENDING SW WITH THE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
POPS AND QPF WERE UPDATED IN THE LATEST FORECAST TO LOWER THE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT OVER AUS. SLIGHT OVERRUNNING OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX SHOULD MEAN AT LEAST SOME
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE FFA AND NUDGE THE POPS FOR NE COUNTY DOWNWARD
ONLY BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR SO. SOME LOCALLIZED FLOODING COULD
STILL DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR I-10 TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THE BASIC FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS A NEW PUBLISH OF
THE QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER EVENING RAINS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  70  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  70  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  70  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190211
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
911 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THE BASIC FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS A NEW PUBLISH OF
THE QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER EVENING RAINS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190211
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
911 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THE BASIC FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS A NEW PUBLISH OF
THE QPF WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER EVENING RAINS OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...
KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 182327 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 182327 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF AUS...SAT...
AND SSF. OVERALL...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT
THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS A
LITTLE DRIER FOR FRIDAY...AND THAT PREVIOUS TREND HAS BEEN KEPT
FOR THESE TAFS. HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THIS DAY. OVERALL...MVFR/VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. VARYING CEILING AND
CONVECTION TRENDS WILL QUITE LIKELY NECESSITATE AMENDMENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 182101
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33












000
FXUS64 KEWX 182101
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL EVENT LEFT SOME IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HARDEST HIT WERE
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...NORTHERN HAYS AND NORTHERN BLANCO COUNTIES.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR HAS BEEN 7.1 INCHES FROM A
COCORAHS OBSERVER IN WEST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY. THERE WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES.

SATELLITE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW PRONOUNCED CLEARING ACROSS
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM NEAR
1.9" WEST TO 2.25" EAST) HAVE ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 71 STAND THE BEST SHOT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE...WE WILL CONTINUE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO UVALDE TO PLEASANTON LINE. THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...
WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL ALSO ADD COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKSPRINGS...UVALDE...SAN ANTONIO...GONZALES
TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-3"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5". MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ON FRIDAY
AND WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT... WE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 30% ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND UP TO 50% GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS
OF ODILE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A COLD
FRONT NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  89  71 /  70  50  30  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  91  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  88  72 /  70  50  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  72  91  73 /  60  40  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  73 /  70  50  30  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  72  89  74 /  70  50  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  92  75 /  60  50  30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...
TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33











000
FXUS64 KEWX 181753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND EXPECT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IT WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LIKELY TIME AT AIRPORTS BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND 02Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR. LATER TONIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT
ALL TERMINALS AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY. EXPECTING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSRA/SHRA OVERNIGHT AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.

HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHRA/TSRA AT DRT AS CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS ANY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SMALL AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE PWS OF 2 TO 2.3
INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF OF ODILE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND
DISTURBANCES. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA DUE TO ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
MOST MODELS DECREASE RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HI-RES ARW SHOWS
AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF ODILE DRIFT FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF ODILE
DISSIPATE OR DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
FINALLY DECREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  91  72  90  74 /  40  40  20  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  90  72  90  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  72  89  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  90  74  89  75 /  30  30  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  90  72  90  74 /  40  40  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  92  72  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  90  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  91  72  90  74 /  40  50  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  75  92  75 /  40  40  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181753
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND EXPECT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IT WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST
LIKELY TIME AT AIRPORTS BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND 02Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR. LATER TONIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT
ALL TERMINALS AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY. EXPECTING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSRA/SHRA OVERNIGHT AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.

HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY SHRA/TSRA AT DRT AS CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS ANY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SMALL AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE PWS OF 2 TO 2.3
INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF OF ODILE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND
DISTURBANCES. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA DUE TO ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
MOST MODELS DECREASE RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HI-RES ARW SHOWS
AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF ODILE DRIFT FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF ODILE
DISSIPATE OR DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
FINALLY DECREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  91  72  90  74 /  40  40  20  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  90  72  90  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  72  89  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  90  74  89  75 /  30  30  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  90  72  90  74 /  40  40  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  92  72  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  90  73 /  40  40  20  30  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  91  72  90  74 /  40  50  20  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  75  92  75 /  40  40  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  74  93  75 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 181150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA IS DECREASING AS IT MOVES SOUTH. WILL GO
WITH TEMPOS OF SHRA FOR KAUS...KSAT AND KSSF UNTIL MID MORNING.
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HAVE
MENTIONED VCSH AT ALL TAFS. THE HI-RES ARW SHOWS AN MCS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH PROB30S FOR ALL TAF
SITES...THIS EVENING AT KDRT AND OVERNIGHT AT KAUS...KSAT AND
KSSF. CIGS LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT BACK TO VFR BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. E TO SE WINDS 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SMALL AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE PWS OF 2 TO 2.3
INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF OF ODILE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND
DISTURBANCES. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA DUE TO ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
MOST MODELS DECREASE RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HI-RES ARW SHOWS
AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF ODILE DRIFT FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF ODILE
DISSIPATE OR DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
FINALLY DECREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  74  91  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  90  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  71  89  72  89 /  80  40  40  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  90  74  89 /  20  30  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  90  73  90 /  60  40  40  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  73  91  72  90 /  80  40  50  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  75  91  75  92 /  40  40  40  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  92  74  93 /  40  40  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180901
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SMALL AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE PWS OF 2 TO 2.3
INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF OF ODILE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND
DISTURBANCES. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA DUE TO ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
MOST MODELS DECREASE RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HI-RES ARW SHOWS
AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF ODILE DRIFT FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF ODILE
DISSIPATE OR DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
FINALLY DECREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  74  91  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  90  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  71  89  72  89 /  80  40  40  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  90  74  89 /  20  30  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  90  73  90 /  60  40  40  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  73  91  72  90 /  80  40  50  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  75  91  75  92 /  40  40  40  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  92  74  93 /  40  40  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180901
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SMALL AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING
BY AROUND SUNRISE. MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUING A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE PWS OF 2 TO 2.3
INCHES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF OF ODILE TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND
DISTURBANCES. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA DUE TO ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
MOST MODELS DECREASE RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HI-RES ARW SHOWS
AN MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WILL INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF ODILE DRIFT FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF ODILE
DISSIPATE OR DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
FINALLY DECREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OR WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY/FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DUE TO THE ONGOING AND EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  74  91  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  90  72  93 /  50  40  40  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  71  89  72  89 /  80  40  40  20  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  76  90  74  89 /  20  30  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  72  90  72  90 /  80  40  40  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  92  72  92 /  30  40  40  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  90  73  90 /  60  40  40  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  73  91  72  90 /  80  40  50  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  75  91  75  92 /  40  40  40  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  92  74  93 /  40  40  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 180444 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...KEWX RADAR HAS LIT UP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
THIS CONVECTION IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AUS...THE TAF FOR THIS
SITE WAS REWORKED HEAVILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...FOR SAT AND
SSF...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THESE TWO AERODROMES...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY INITIATE
NEW CONVECTION DURING THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...
AND THEREFORE THE TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION BETWEEN 10 AND 14
UTC WERE RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS. ONLY THE AERODROME IN
DRT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL...AT ALL OF THE AERODROMES...VFR/MVFR IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. AMENDMENTS TO THE FORTHCOMING ISSUANCE OF
TAFS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE CURRENT AREA
OF CONVECTION EVOLVES AND NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REFLECT LOWER EVENING POPS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TO STRESS THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL TX. ONE OR TWO OF THE
FINER RES MODELS SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR SWWD PROPATING CELLS IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EXPAND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEEPER INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS FAVORED OUTSIDE
THE WATCH AREA AS IS NOTED FROM THE MINIMAL INFLOW FROM THE LLJ AS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SPENES PRODUCT FROM NESDIS. AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERSECT OVER CENTRAL TX...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL ONLY INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE COUNTIES IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...REASONING OF PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED FINE AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO BE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RESUME DURING THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT 3 OUT OF 4 TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  80  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  80  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180444 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...KEWX RADAR HAS LIT UP WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
THIS CONVECTION IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO AUS...THE TAF FOR THIS
SITE WAS REWORKED HEAVILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...FOR SAT AND
SSF...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THESE TWO AERODROMES...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY INITIATE
NEW CONVECTION DURING THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...
AND THEREFORE THE TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION BETWEEN 10 AND 14
UTC WERE RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS. ONLY THE AERODROME IN
DRT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL...AT ALL OF THE AERODROMES...VFR/MVFR IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. AMENDMENTS TO THE FORTHCOMING ISSUANCE OF
TAFS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE CURRENT AREA
OF CONVECTION EVOLVES AND NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REFLECT LOWER EVENING POPS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TO STRESS THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL TX. ONE OR TWO OF THE
FINER RES MODELS SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR SWWD PROPATING CELLS IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EXPAND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEEPER INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS FAVORED OUTSIDE
THE WATCH AREA AS IS NOTED FROM THE MINIMAL INFLOW FROM THE LLJ AS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SPENES PRODUCT FROM NESDIS. AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERSECT OVER CENTRAL TX...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL ONLY INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE COUNTIES IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...REASONING OF PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED FINE AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO BE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RESUME DURING THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT 3 OUT OF 4 TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  80  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  80  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI







000
FXUS64 KEWX 180207
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
907 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REFLECT LOWER EVENING POPS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TO STRESS THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL TX. ONE OR TWO OF THE
FINER RES MODELS SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR SWWD PROPATING CELLS IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EXPAND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEEPER INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS FAVORED OUTSIDE
THE WATCH AREA AS IS NOTED FROM THE MINIMAL INFLOW FROM THE LLJ AS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SPENES PRODUCT FROM NESDIS. AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERSECT OVER CENTRAL TX...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL ONLY INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE COUNTIES IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...REASONING OF PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED FINE AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO BE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RESUME DURING THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT 3 OUT OF 4 TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  80  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  80  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180207
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
907 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REFLECT LOWER EVENING POPS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TO STRESS THE LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
EXPECTED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL TX. ONE OR TWO OF THE
FINER RES MODELS SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR SWWD PROPATING CELLS IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EXPAND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEEPER INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS FAVORED OUTSIDE
THE WATCH AREA AS IS NOTED FROM THE MINIMAL INFLOW FROM THE LLJ AS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SPENES PRODUCT FROM NESDIS. AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTERSECT OVER CENTRAL TX...THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL ONLY INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE COUNTIES IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...REASONING OF PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED FINE AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO BE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RESUME DURING THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT 3 OUT OF 4 TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  80  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  80  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 172333 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...REASONING OF PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED FINE AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO BE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RESUME DURING THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT 3 OUT OF 4 TAF SITES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  60  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  70  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 172333 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...REASONING OF PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS APPEARED FINE AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR INITIAL CONDITIONS. CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO BE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT THE AERODROMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH VFR LIKELY TO RESUME DURING THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT 3 OUT OF 4 TAF SITES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  60  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  70  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...
WILLIAMSON.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 172031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  60  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  70  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...
LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 172031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING RAOB DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.0" AT
KDRT...WHICH IS ALMOST +2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP ALSO SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LATE
AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN/T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR
(LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON COUNTIES). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE MENTIONED REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL RUN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OVERALL...WE HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE LEVEL WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AND WE/LL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. MOISTURE
LEVELS TO DROP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...SO A DECREASE TO 20-30% RAIN
CHANCES LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. RECENT
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE ECMWF HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER FRONT ON THE 12Z
RUN VS. A STRONGER FRONT ON THE 00Z RUN. TODAY/S DATA FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR TREND AND TO PRESERVE SOME CONSISTENCY...WE/LL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE/LL SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND SHIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...BUT ANY COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90 AS MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  87  71  91  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  87  70  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  90  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  85  70  89  72 /  60  80  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  84  71  90  72 /  70  80  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  92  72 /  40  30  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  90  73 /  60  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  91  72 /  70  80  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  91  75 /  50  40  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...
LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 171741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR. ANY
STORMS THAT PASS OVER TERMINALS WILL DROP CIGS/VIS TO MVFR. THE
HARD PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING CONVECTION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. THURSDAY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA RETURN BY
EARLY MORNING AND LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  71  90  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  88  70  89  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  89  72 /  60  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  70  88  72 /  60  60  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  89  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  86  71  89  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  89  73 /  70  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  90  72 /  70  60  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  90  75 /  50  50  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  50  40  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 171741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR. ANY
STORMS THAT PASS OVER TERMINALS WILL DROP CIGS/VIS TO MVFR. THE
HARD PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING CONVECTION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS. THURSDAY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA RETURN BY
EARLY MORNING AND LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  71  90  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  88  70  89  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  89  72 /  60  50  30  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  70  88  72 /  60  60  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  76  89  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  86  71  89  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  40  40  30  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  71  89  73 /  70  60  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  90  72 /  70  60  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  75  90  75 /  50  50  30  40  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  50  40  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 171129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET NOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. HAVE INPUT SOME PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT SAT/SSF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE THE
SH/TS ACTIVITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT SSF/SAT/AUS.  PLACED SITES IN
VICINITY TS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO THUNDER IN THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF 20-24Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT MAYBE EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE...KEPT TAFS IN VICINITY MENTION LATER TONIGHT. LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO PINDOWN CONVECTION TIMES BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WITH POP ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR DRT...DID NOT
MENTION SH/TS AT DRT TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 171129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET NOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. HAVE INPUT SOME PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT SAT/SSF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE THE
SH/TS ACTIVITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT SSF/SAT/AUS.  PLACED SITES IN
VICINITY TS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO THUNDER IN THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF 20-24Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT MAYBE EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE...KEPT TAFS IN VICINITY MENTION LATER TONIGHT. LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO PINDOWN CONVECTION TIMES BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WITH POP ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR DRT...DID NOT
MENTION SH/TS AT DRT TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 170905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04








000
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 170253 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170253 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 162342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 162342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 162040
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 161748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  74  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  87  69 /  20  40  30  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  87  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  87  73  86  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  73  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  86  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  89  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 161748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  74  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  87  69 /  20  40  30  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  87  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  87  73  86  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  73  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  86  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  89  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






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