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000
FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281704
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281704
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281704
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281704
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 281123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280543
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GUST OVER 20 KT AT AUS/SAT BUT SPEEDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. DID MENTION FEW015 AT AUS
AND SAT BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT
WILL START TO ADVECT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO FORM A FEW PATCHES OF STRATO CU ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT GRIDS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  83  60  77  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  82  59  78  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  59  76  61 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  88  61  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             53  85  59  79  63 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  78  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  62  78  63 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  78  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  83  60  79  63 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 280543
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GUST OVER 20 KT AT AUS/SAT BUT SPEEDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. DID MENTION FEW015 AT AUS
AND SAT BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT
WILL START TO ADVECT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO FORM A FEW PATCHES OF STRATO CU ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT GRIDS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  83  60  77  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  82  59  78  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  59  76  61 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  88  61  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             53  85  59  79  63 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  78  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  62  78  63 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  78  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  83  60  79  63 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280543
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY GUST OVER 20 KT AT AUS/SAT BUT SPEEDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. DID MENTION FEW015 AT AUS
AND SAT BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT
WILL START TO ADVECT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO FORM A FEW PATCHES OF STRATO CU ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT GRIDS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  83  60  77  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  82  59  78  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  59  76  61 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           57  88  61  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             53  85  59  79  63 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  78  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  62  78  63 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  78  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  83  60  79  63 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 272347
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT GRIDS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




000
FXUS64 KEWX 272347
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT GRIDS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 30S REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES
SHOULD SLOWLY RISE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 272319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




000
FXUS64 KEWX 272319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 272319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SW TO SE WIND DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS
15Z-18Z...A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AT
AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 272004
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 272004
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
304 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
PLEASANT WEEKEND WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
LEAVING BRISK MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM
AFTERNOONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TRENDS BEING
HELPED BY SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY
DECOUPLED SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER DEWPOINTS AND LESS COOLING IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SKIES SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY...WITH
SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CATCHES UP...AND SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY SPRINKLES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND GROUPING FOR A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRING HAIL...BUT THE WEAKNESS OF
THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT LEND TO US BEING WORRIED ABOUT STRONG
STORM HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE EARLY SPRING NORMALS. ANOTHER
WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAN THE GFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  82  58  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  80  54  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  81  54  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            50  81  56  82  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  87  57  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        50  80  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  83  53  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  81  54  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  81  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  82  55  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  83  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 271741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT DRT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  82  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  80  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  86  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  82  53  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        49  80  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  80  57  79  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  81  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  82  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 271741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT DRT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  82  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  80  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  86  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  82  53  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        49  80  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  80  57  79  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  81  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  82  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 271741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT DRT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  82  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  80  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  86  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  82  53  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        49  80  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  80  57  79  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  81  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  82  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 271741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN
ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT DRT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              52  82  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  80  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     50  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  86  56  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        48  81  54  80  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             47  82  53  81  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        49  80  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  80  57  79  62 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       52  81  55  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           50  82  54  80  60 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 271139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND
GENERALLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE EASTERLY AT KDRT AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 271139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND
GENERALLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE EASTERLY AT KDRT AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 271139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND
GENERALLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE EASTERLY AT KDRT AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 271139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND
GENERALLY BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 00Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...WITH WINDS TRENDING MORE EASTERLY AT KDRT AFTER 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 270824
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 270824
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 270824
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 270824
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FROM THE WEST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DRY AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TRY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH BACK TO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW/STRATUS CLOUDS
FORMING BY DAY-BREAK SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUNDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CAN`T RULE
OUT FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE SOLUTIONS BRING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/DGEX/ AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE ARE BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION WITH WEATHER
IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO FAR...AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SUGGESTING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH REPRESENT 2 STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY
APRIL. THEREFORE...CAN`T RULE OUT FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 90 OF GETTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.

THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  47  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  49  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  48  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  47  82  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  49  80  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  50  80  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 270602 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  53  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  85  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  47  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  50  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  50  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 270602 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  53  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  85  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  47  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  50  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  50  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 270602 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  53  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  85  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  47  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  50  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  50  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 270602 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  53  82  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  48  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  52  85  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  50  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  47  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  50  80  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  50  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  52  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  50  81  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 262319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AROUND 10-12 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  79  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  78  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  80  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  78  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  78  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  76  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  78  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 262319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24/30 HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AROUND 10-12 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  79  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  78  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  80  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  78  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  78  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  76  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  78  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261937
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  79  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  78  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  80  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  78  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  78  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  76  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  78  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261937
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LOOKING FOR DRY WEATHER WITH A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY
AND THEN WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL ALL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  79  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  78  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  80  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  78  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             43  78  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  76  50  79  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  78  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  77  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 261815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
115 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND LOSE THE EXTRA GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR MORE BY 00Z/3/27. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR SKIES RESUMING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 15 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  -    0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 261815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
115 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND LOSE THE EXTRA GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OR MORE BY 00Z/3/27. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR SKIES RESUMING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 15 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  -    0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261740
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 15 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  78  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  76  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  78  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  77  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  75  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  77  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261740
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 15 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  78  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  76  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  78  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  77  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  75  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  77  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 261740
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 15 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  78  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  77  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  76  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  78  51  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  77  50  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  75  50  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  77  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  77  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 261435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR CWA AND TAKEN NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OVER FRIO AND ATASCOSA COUNTY...BUT THIS WILL NOT
PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS THE WINDS. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON TEMPERATURES...OUR FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH. LOOKS LIKE
THEY ARE STARTING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 261133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE DRT/AUS/SAT/SSF
TAF SITES. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SAT/SSF WILL EXIT
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT
AUS/SAT/SSF AND WILL BECOME VFR 15Z-18Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 261106 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 261106 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FROPA HAS CLEARED THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND IS NOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METROPOLITAN AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN THOSE
REGISTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260725
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260725
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
225 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS OF THIS WRITING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SONORA TO SAN SABA TO FORT WORTH AREA. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM THROUGH NOON TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PER LAST OBSERVATIONS
AND USING EXTRAPOLATION TO MEASURE THE DISTANCE AND SPEED OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOOKS LIKE THE EDGE PORTION OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES (230AM). IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A WIND SHIFT OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
330AM TO 415AM AND 445AM TO 515AM ACROSS SAN ANTONIO/DEL RIO
AREAS. THIS FAST MOVING FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 6
AM. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE
FROM FRIDAY WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  46  78  53  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  45  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  43  76  51  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  45  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  50  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  48  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  78 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  45  77  51  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  45  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 260600
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. ADVISORY ISSUED MAINLY FOR
FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL REACH AUS-DRT AROUND 09Z
AND SAT/SSF AROUND 10Z. A THIN BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS
OCCURRING ALREADY AT SAT/SSF AND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING
VFR 11Z-15Z. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SURGE OF GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS 28-35 KTS LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. N WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/DRT TERMINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
WITH SUNSET. ALSO...A STORM IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BURNET COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE NO OTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS IS
REASONABLE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WHERE MENTIONED.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO SNYDER TO ROSWELL
LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY BY 3 AM AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 7 AM. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...HAVE ENDED POPS BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  46  78  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  44  77  47  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  45  77  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  43  76  49  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  45  79  50  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  49  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  47  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  77 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  45  78  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  46  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260600
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. ADVISORY ISSUED MAINLY FOR
FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL REACH AUS-DRT AROUND 09Z
AND SAT/SSF AROUND 10Z. A THIN BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS
OCCURRING ALREADY AT SAT/SSF AND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING
VFR 11Z-15Z. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SURGE OF GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS 28-35 KTS LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. N WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/DRT TERMINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
WITH SUNSET. ALSO...A STORM IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BURNET COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE NO OTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS IS
REASONABLE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WHERE MENTIONED.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO SNYDER TO ROSWELL
LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY BY 3 AM AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 7 AM. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...HAVE ENDED POPS BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  46  78  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  44  77  47  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  45  77  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  43  76  49  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  45  79  50  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  49  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  47  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  77 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  45  78  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  46  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 260600
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. ADVISORY ISSUED MAINLY FOR
FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL REACH AUS-DRT AROUND 09Z
AND SAT/SSF AROUND 10Z. A THIN BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS
OCCURRING ALREADY AT SAT/SSF AND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING
VFR 11Z-15Z. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SURGE OF GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS 28-35 KTS LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. N WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/DRT TERMINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
WITH SUNSET. ALSO...A STORM IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BURNET COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE NO OTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS IS
REASONABLE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WHERE MENTIONED.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO SNYDER TO ROSWELL
LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY BY 3 AM AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 7 AM. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...HAVE ENDED POPS BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  46  78  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  44  77  47  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  45  77  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  43  76  49  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  45  79  50  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  49  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  47  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  77 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  45  78  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  46  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 260600
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
OVERNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. ADVISORY ISSUED MAINLY FOR
FREQUENT STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

06Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL REACH AUS-DRT AROUND 09Z
AND SAT/SSF AROUND 10Z. A THIN BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CEILINGS
OCCURRING ALREADY AT SAT/SSF AND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING
VFR 11Z-15Z. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SURGE OF GUSTY N WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. PEAK WIND GUSTS 28-35 KTS LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. N WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/DRT TERMINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
WITH SUNSET. ALSO...A STORM IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BURNET COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE NO OTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS IS
REASONABLE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WHERE MENTIONED.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO SNYDER TO ROSWELL
LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY BY 3 AM AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 7 AM. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...HAVE ENDED POPS BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  46  78  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  44  77  47  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  45  77  48  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  43  76  49  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  45  79  50  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  77  49  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  42  77  47  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  44  77  49  78 /  20   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  45  75  50  77 /  40   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       69  45  78  50  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  46  77  50  79 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260257
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
WITH SUNSET. ALSO...A STORM IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BURNET COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE NO OTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS IS
REASONABLE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WHERE MENTIONED.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO SNYDER TO ROSWELL
LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY BY 3 AM AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 7 AM. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...HAVE ENDED POPS BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 260257
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
957 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED
WITH SUNSET. ALSO...A STORM IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF BURNET COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS ALL INDICATE NO OTHER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS IS
REASONABLE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING WHERE MENTIONED.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ALONG A WICHITA FALLS TO SNYDER TO ROSWELL
LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY BY 3 AM AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 7 AM. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT...HAVE ENDED POPS BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AS FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...18Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE DISAGREEMENT
SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 252314
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 252314
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
614 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE
ACTIVITY NEARS KDRT. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG INHIBITION IN PLACE EAST OF THE STORMS AND THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE EAST. WILL START
THE KDRT TAF WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES BUT MVFR CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3-6Z FOR ALL SITES. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
KSAT AND KSSF A FEW HOURS LATER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE TO
THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH -SHRA
FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND VCSH FOR KDRT WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE A
BIT LESS. IF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY...FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BRING IN DRIER AIR AND
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AROUND 13-14Z. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS...BUT ACTUAL GUSTS
TOMORROW COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOPALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOPALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOPALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 251956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN THE PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN BORDER AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN NORTH TEXAS. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES TONIGHT. THE
DRYLINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT PROGRESS ANY FURTHER THAN VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 4 AM AND EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOPALONG
THE DRYLINE AND MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP.
SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. WITH THE
STRONG CAP I THINK STORMS HERE WILL BE SUB-SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE. BEST AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO KERRVILLE TO GEORGETOWN LINE. STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG NORTH WINDS BUILD IN. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30. COOLER AIR
WILL ACCOMPANY THESES WINDS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP STARTING ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND BRINGS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS PROGRESS. THE GFS BRINGS IT STRAIGHT THROUGH
TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF DROPS IT DOWN INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN OUT INTO THE GULF. THESE RESULT IN TWO
VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIOS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND THE ECMWF ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY OVER US. WILL
GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  66  46  78  52 /  50  20   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  67  44  77  47 /  50  20   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  68  45  77  48 /  50  30   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  65  43  76  49 /  50  10   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  71  45  79  50 /  30  20   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  44  77  49 /  50  20   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  70  42  77  47 /  50  30   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        58  67  44  77  49 /  50  30   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  66  45  75  50 /  40  40   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  69  45  78  50 /  50  30   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  70  46  77  50 /  40  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




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