000
FXUS64 KEWX 180440
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES LATE THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
STRATUS LIFTS TO VFR AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AND NORTH OF LLANO COUNTY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS COMSTOCK...
BAKERS CROSSING AND JUNO OVER NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARD OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MAY MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHILE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. GS/GR THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES EXPECTED.
VFR SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS TO VFR AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
19Z SFC OBS INDICATE THE DRY-LINE IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE ACROSS
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE. HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/NERN HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
MID/LOWER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRY-LINE AND COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS KEPT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY-LINE ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ALOFT AND WARM ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
STATES ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
AREA AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-MAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TO 100-103 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 18 THROUGH 20:
MAY 18 MAY 19 MAY 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM.....94/2003....97/2006....99/2008
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY....97/1925....98/2008...101/2008
SAN ANTONIO..........97/1989...101/1989...100/1996
DEL RIO.............103/2003...104/1973...105/1973
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 96 71 94 72 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 70 92 71 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 94 70 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 70 93 69 / - - 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 100 74 100 74 / 10 - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 69 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 96 71 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 92 71 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 94 73 93 74 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 72 93 72 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 94 71 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
000
FXUS64 KEWX 180201 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AND NORTH OF LLANO COUNTY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS COMSTOCK...
BAKERS CROSSING AND JUNO OVER NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TOWARD OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MAY MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHILE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. GS/GR THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES EXPECTED.
VFR SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS TO VFR AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
19Z SFC OBS INDICATE THE DRY-LINE IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE ACROSS
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE. HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/NERN HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
MID/LOWER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRY-LINE AND COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS KEPT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY-LINE ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ALOFT AND WARM ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
STATES ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
AREA AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-MAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TO 100-103 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 18 THROUGH 20:
MAY 18 MAY 19 MAY 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM.....94/2003....97/2006....99/2008
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY....97/1925....98/2008...101/2008
SAN ANTONIO..........97/1989...101/1989...100/1996
DEL RIO.............103/2003...104/1973...105/1973
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 96 71 94 72 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 70 92 71 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 94 70 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 70 93 69 / 10 - 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 100 74 100 74 / 10 - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 69 / 10 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 96 71 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 92 71 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 94 73 93 74 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 72 93 72 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 94 71 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 172214
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
514 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS EVENING...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MAY MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHILE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURROS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. GS/GR THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES EXPECTED.
VFR SKIES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS TO VFR AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
19Z SFC OBS INDICATE THE DRY-LINE IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE ACROSS
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE. HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/NERN HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
MID/LOWER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRY-LINE AND COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS KEPT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY-LINE ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ALOFT AND WARM ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
STATES ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
AREA AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-MAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TO 100-103 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 18 THROUGH 20:
MAY 18 MAY 19 MAY 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM.....94/2003....97/2006....99/2008
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY....97/1925....98/2008...101/2008
SAN ANTONIO..........97/1989...101/1989...100/1996
DEL RIO.............103/2003...104/1973...105/1973
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 96 71 94 72 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 70 92 71 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 94 70 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 70 93 69 / 10 - 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 100 74 100 74 / 10 - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 69 / 10 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 96 71 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 92 71 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 94 73 93 74 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 72 93 72 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 94 71 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 172021
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
19Z SFC OBS INDICATE THE DRY-LINE IS MAKING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE ACROSS
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE. HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/NERN HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
MID/LOWER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRY-LINE AND COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS KEPT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY-LINE ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ALOFT AND WARM ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
STATES ON TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
AREA AND COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID-MAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TO 100-103 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 18 THROUGH 20:
MAY 18 MAY 19 MAY 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM.....94/2003....97/2006....99/2008
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY....97/1925....98/2008...101/2008
SAN ANTONIO..........97/1989...101/1989...100/1996
DEL RIO.............103/2003...104/1973...105/1973
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 96 71 94 72 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 70 92 71 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 94 70 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 70 93 69 / 10 - 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 100 74 100 74 / 10 - 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 69 / 10 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 96 71 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 92 71 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 94 73 93 74 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 72 93 72 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 94 71 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
000
FXUS64 KEWX 171718
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
KEEP THE AIRMASS CAPPED EXCEPT FOR ISOLD TSRA OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 03Z UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z...WHEN CIGS WILL LIFT AND SCT TO VFR
ALL AREAS BY 17Z. SELY SFC WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS PREVAILING...EXCEPT
15-20 KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CLOUDS
BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING VCNTY KDRT MAY LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS. I-35 CORRIDOR
WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE DRY-LINE MIXING INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX WILL
INTERFACE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE DRY-LINE TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. THE STORMS COULD HAVE HEALTHY CAPES OVER 3000
J/KG AND GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE BETTER POTENTIAL
IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX AND THE LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
A POOR POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. WILL EXPECT THE
ENVIRONMENT TO WIND UP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY...WHEN SOME
STORMS OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING
ORGANIZED.
WITH LOW COVERAGE OF 5-15 PERCENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL KEEP ANY CONCERNS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OUT
OF THE HWO FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THE DRY-LINE FOCUS
FARTHER NORTH AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
ENHANCING CAP STRENGTH. SOME ISOLATED POPS ARE LEFT FOR LATE
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SUNDAY COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST TO
NEAR I-35. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD COMPROMISE CAP
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS CAN TRIGGER
OVER MEXICO. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL HAVE SHIFTED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER W TX. THIS
PATTERN IS BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT TRENDS FROM THESE TWO MODELS
ARE GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS. THUS WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON
RAIN CHANCES WITH SUCH A WEAK PATTERN. A SHARP BUT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
SEASONAL LATE SPRING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED AIR-MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 97 72 94 72 / 10 - - 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 96 70 93 70 / - - - 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 94 71 / - - - 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 96 71 93 70 / 10 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 74 102 76 / 10 20 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 72 95 72 / - 10 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 71 / - - - 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 94 72 93 74 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 94 73 / - - - 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 72 93 74 / - - - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 171138
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CLOUDS
BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING VCNTY KDRT MAY LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS. I-35 CORRIDOR
WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE DRY-LINE MIXING INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX WILL
INTERFACE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE DRY-LINE TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. THE STORMS COULD HAVE HEALTHY CAPES OVER 3000
J/KG AND GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE BETTER POTENTIAL
IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX AND THE LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
A POOR POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. WILL EXPECT THE
ENVIRONMENT TO WIND UP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY...WHEN SOME
STORMS OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING
ORGANIZED.
WITH LOW COVERAGE OF 5-15 PERCENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL KEEP ANY CONCERNS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OUT
OF THE HWO FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THE DRY-LINE FOCUS
FARTHER NORTH AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
ENHANCING CAP STRENGTH. SOME ISOLATED POPS ARE LEFT FOR LATE
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SUNDAY COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST TO
NEAR I-35. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD COMPROMISE CAP
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS CAN TRIGGER
OVER MEXICO. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL HAVE SHIFTED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER W TX. THIS
PATTERN IS BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT TRENDS FROM THESE TWO MODELS
ARE GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS. THUS WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON
RAIN CHANCES WITH SUCH A WEAK PATTERN. A SHARP BUT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
SEASONAL LATE SPRING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED AIR-MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 73 97 72 94 / 10 10 - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 71 96 70 93 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 96 71 94 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 70 96 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 76 100 74 102 / 10 10 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 96 72 95 / - - 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 95 71 92 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 73 94 72 93 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 73 95 73 94 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 95 72 93 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
000
FXUS64 KEWX 170846
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE
CONTRASTS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE DRY-LINE MIXING INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX WILL
INTERFACE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ABOVE THE DRY-LINE TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. THE STORMS COULD HAVE HEALTHY CAPES OVER 3000
J/KG AND GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE BETTER POTENTIAL
IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX AND THE LIMITED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS
A POOR POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. WILL EXPECT THE
ENVIRONMENT TO WIND UP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY...WHEN SOME
STORMS OVER THE WRN HILL COUNTRY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING
ORGANIZED.
WITH LOW COVERAGE OF 5-15 PERCENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL KEEP ANY CONCERNS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OUT
OF THE HWO FOR NOW. AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HELP SHIFT THE DRY-LINE FOCUS
FARTHER NORTH AND POTENTIALLY LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
ENHANCING CAP STRENGTH. SOME ISOLATED POPS ARE LEFT FOR LATE
AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SUNDAY COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST TO
NEAR I-35. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TAP TO PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD COMPROMISE CAP
STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS CAN TRIGGER
OVER MEXICO. BY LATE TUESDAY...THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL HAVE SHIFTED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER W TX. THIS
PATTERN IS BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TO PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT TRENDS FROM THESE TWO MODELS
ARE GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS. THUS WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON
RAIN CHANCES WITH SUCH A WEAK PATTERN. A SHARP BUT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK...SUGGESTING A RETURN TO
SEASONAL LATE SPRING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED AIR-MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 73 97 72 94 / 10 10 - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 71 96 70 93 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 96 71 94 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 70 96 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 76 100 74 102 / 10 10 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 96 72 95 / - - 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 95 71 92 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 73 94 72 93 / - - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 73 95 73 94 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 95 72 93 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
000
FXUS64 KEWX 170442
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS THEN LIFTS AND BECOMES FEW-SCT WITH VFR
SKIES LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES. S TO SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF JUNCTION DUE TO
STRONG SFC HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DRY-LINE. CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ESE WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. 12Z HI-RES NMM AND CIRA WRF ALSO
FCST CONVECTION TO TRACK ESE THRU AT LEAST 09Z. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. THESE STORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH SFC TEMPS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF A KBMQ TO
KT82 LINE AND AGAIN FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. VFR SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MVFR AND THEN
IFR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
EXCEPT VARIABLE MAINLY WLY EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 17TH AT DEL RIO AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WITH THE HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON SATURDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW A
S/W TROF MOVING JUST NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO ARE LISTED BELOW.
LOCATION MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 93 IN 2003 94 IN 2003
AUSTIN MABRY 96 IN 1925 97 IN 1925
DEL RIO 101 IN 2003 103 IN 2003
SAN ANTONIO 97 IN 2003 97 IN 1989
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 71 / - 10 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 104 74 98 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 70 95 71 / - 10 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 92 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 162306 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF JUNCTION DUE TO
STRONG SFC HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DRY-LINE. CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ESE WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. 12Z HI-RES NMM AND CIRA WRF ALSO
FCST CONVECTION TO TRACK ESE THRU AT LEAST 09Z. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. THESE STORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH SFC TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF A KBMQ TO
KT82 LINE AND AGAIN FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. VFR SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MVFR AND THEN
IFR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
EXCEPT VARIABLE MAINLY WLY EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 17TH AT DEL RIO AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WITH THE HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON SATURDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW A
S/W TROF MOVING JUST NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO ARE LISTED BELOW.
LOCATION MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 93 IN 2003 94 IN 2003
AUSTIN MABRY 96 IN 1925 97 IN 1925
DEL RIO 101 IN 2003 103 IN 2003
SAN ANTONIO 97 IN 2003 97 IN 1989
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 71 / - 10 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 104 74 98 75 / - 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 70 95 71 / - 10 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 92 70 / - 10 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 92 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 162235
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF A KBMQ TO
KT82 LINE AND AGAIN FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. VFR SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MVFR AND THEN
IFR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
EXCEPT VARIABLE MAINLY WLY EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 17TH AT DEL RIO AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WITH THE HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON SATURDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW A
S/W TROF MOVING JUST NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO ARE LISTED BELOW.
LOCATION MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 93 IN 2003 94 IN 2003
AUSTIN MABRY 96 IN 1925 97 IN 1925
DEL RIO 101 IN 2003 103 IN 2003
SAN ANTONIO 97 IN 2003 97 IN 1989
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 71 / - 10 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 104 74 98 75 / - 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 70 95 71 / - 10 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 92 70 / - 10 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 92 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 162030
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 17TH AT DEL RIO AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WITH THE HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON SATURDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW A
S/W TROF MOVING JUST NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO ARE LISTED BELOW.
LOCATION MAY 17TH MAY 18TH
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 93 IN 2003 94 IN 2003
AUSTIN MABRY 96 IN 1925 97 IN 1925
DEL RIO 101 IN 2003 103 IN 2003
SAN ANTONIO 97 IN 2003 97 IN 1989
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 95 72 93 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 71 93 71 / - 10 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 104 74 98 75 / - 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 70 94 71 / - 10 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 92 70 / - 10 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 92 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 92 72 / - 10 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 161750 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA MOVES TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EVENING. A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I35 SITES. KDRT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
LIKE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER
PATTERNS FOR NEXT WEEK SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A S/W TROF PASSES NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING...SOUTH OF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG I-35 WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES IN
MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE WEST OF AUS AND SAT/SSF WILL SEE
IFR CIGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AT DRT WILL
ENABLE A FEW HOURS OF IFR...THEN A SWITCH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND HEATING WITH
DOWNSPLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 96 71 93 72 / - - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 70 92 71 / - - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 70 93 70 / - - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 96 70 92 70 / - - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 104 74 98 75 / 0 - - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 95 69 92 70 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 98 70 94 71 / 0 - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 70 92 70 / - - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 93 73 91 72 / 10 - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 95 72 92 72 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 92 72 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 161747
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWED ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LLANO...BURNET...
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED
BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING...OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER
PATTERNS FOR NEXT WEEK SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A S/W TROF PASSES NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...SOUTH OF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
LIKE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER
PATTERNS FOR NEXT WEEK SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A S/W TROF PASSES NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING...SOUTH OF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG I-35 WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES IN
MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE WEST OF AUS AND SAT/SSF WILL SEE
IFR CIGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AT DRT WILL
ENABLE A FEW HOURS OF IFR...THEN A SWITCH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND HEATING WITH
DOWNSPLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 72 96 71 93 / 10 10 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 95 70 92 / 10 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 95 70 93 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 96 70 92 / 10 10 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 72 104 74 98 / - - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 95 69 92 / 10 10 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 70 98 70 94 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 94 70 92 / 10 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 93 73 91 / 10 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 95 72 92 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 94 71 92 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 161614
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1114 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
LIKE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER
PATTERNS FOR NEXT WEEK SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A S/W TROF PASSES NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING...SOUTH OF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG I-35 WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES IN
MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE WEST OF AUS AND SAT/SSF WILL SEE
IFR CIGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AT DRT WILL
ENABLE A FEW HOURS OF IFR...THEN A SWITCH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND HEATING WITH
DOWNSPLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 72 96 71 93 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 95 70 92 / 10 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 95 70 93 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 96 70 92 / 10 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 72 104 74 98 / - 0 - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 95 69 92 / 10 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 70 98 70 94 / - 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 94 70 92 / 10 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 93 73 91 / 10 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 95 72 92 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 94 71 92 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17/18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 161145
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG I-35 WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES IN
MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE WEST OF AUS AND SAT/SSF WILL SEE
IFR CIGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AT DRT WILL
ENABLE A FEW HOURS OF IFR...THEN A SWITCH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND HEATING WITH
DOWNSPLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 72 96 71 93 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 95 70 92 / 10 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 95 70 93 / 10 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 96 70 92 / 20 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 72 104 74 98 / - 0 - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 95 69 92 / 20 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 70 98 70 94 / - 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 94 70 92 / 10 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 93 73 91 / 10 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 95 72 92 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 94 71 92 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
000
FXUS64 KEWX 160900
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 72 96 71 93 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 71 95 70 92 / 10 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 95 70 93 / 10 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 70 96 70 92 / 20 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 72 104 74 98 / - 0 - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 70 95 69 92 / 20 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 70 98 70 94 / - 0 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 94 70 92 / 10 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 88 73 93 73 91 / 10 10 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 95 72 92 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 94 71 92 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
000
FXUS64 KEWX 160453 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #162. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH ACCELERATING BOW SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS N OF A
KT82 TO KHYI TO K3T5 LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF TEMPO TSRA AT KAUS FOR 07Z-10Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR SKIES
WILL SPREAD TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SOME CIGS LOWER TO
IFR. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE. ALTHOUGH...ONLY
MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HI-RES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS...HAVE
LIMITED THE MENTION OF SEVERE TSTMS TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
MAY SEEN AN MCS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN TEXAS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT AT TAF
SITE IS AT KAUS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAF AS CURRENTLY EXPECT
THEM TO NOT BE IN THE VCNTY. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LATER MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS EVENING
BECOME MVFR LATE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
DEVELOPS AND CIGS LOWER. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE.
ALTHOUGH...ONLY MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...
SOUTH OF THE 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF IH35...OVER THE
NORTH TO WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS THE
500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS NOT CARRIED AWAY TO
THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FAST
MOVING S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 72 94 72 / 40 10 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 71 93 71 / 40 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 94 72 / 30 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 70 94 71 / 50 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 103 73 104 73 / 20 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 70 92 70 / 50 20 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 70 96 71 / 20 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 92 71 / 30 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 86 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 91 72 94 73 / 30 10 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 94 72 / 20 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 160449
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS N OF A
KT82 TO KHYI TO K3T5 LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF TEMPO TSRA AT KAUS FOR 07Z-10Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR SKIES
WILL SPREAD TO MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SOME CIGS LOWER TO
IFR. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE. ALTHOUGH...ONLY
MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HI-RES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS...HAVE
LIMITED THE MENTION OF SEVERE TSTMS TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
MAY SEEN AN MCS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN TEXAS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT AT TAF
SITE IS AT KAUS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAF AS CURRENTLY EXPECT
THEM TO NOT BE IN THE VCNTY. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LATER MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS EVENING
BECOME MVFR LATE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
DEVELOPS AND CIGS LOWER. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE.
ALTHOUGH...ONLY MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...
SOUTH OF THE 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF IH35...OVER THE
NORTH TO WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS THE
500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS NOT CARRIED AWAY TO
THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FAST
MOVING S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 72 94 72 / 40 10 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 71 93 71 / 40 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 94 72 / 30 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 70 94 71 / 50 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 103 73 104 73 / 20 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 70 92 70 / 50 20 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 70 96 71 / 20 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 92 71 / 30 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 86 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 91 72 94 73 / 30 10 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 94 72 / 20 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
000
FXUS64 KEWX 160013 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
713 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HI-RES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS...HAVE
LIMITED THE MENTION OF SEVERE TSTMS TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
MAY SEEN AN MCS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN TEXAS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT AT TAF
SITE IS AT KAUS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAF AS CURRENTLY EXPECT
THEM TO NOT BE IN THE VCNTY. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LATER MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS EVENING
BECOME MVFR LATE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
DEVELOPS AND CIGS LOWER. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE.
ALTHOUGH...ONLY MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...
SOUTH OF THE 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF IH35...OVER THE
NORTH TO WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS THE
500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS NOT CARRIED AWAY TO
THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FAST
MOVING S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 72 94 72 / 30 10 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 71 93 71 / 30 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 94 72 / 30 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 70 94 71 / 40 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 103 73 104 73 / 20 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 70 92 70 / 40 20 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 70 96 71 / 20 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 92 71 / 30 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 86 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 91 72 94 73 / 30 10 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 94 72 / 20 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 152336
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN TEXAS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT AT TAF
SITE IS AT KAUS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAF AS CURRENTLY EXPECT
THEM TO NOT BE IN THE VCNTY. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LATER MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS EVENING
BECOME MVFR LATE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
DEVELOPS AND CIGS LOWER. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE.
ALTHOUGH...ONLY MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...
SOUTH OF THE 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF IH35...OVER THE
NORTH TO WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS THE
500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS NOT CARRIED AWAY TO
THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FAST
MOVING S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 72 94 72 / 30 10 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 71 93 71 / 30 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 94 72 / 30 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 70 94 71 / 40 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 103 73 104 73 / 30 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 70 92 70 / 40 20 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 70 96 71 / 30 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 92 71 / 30 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 86 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 91 72 94 73 / 30 10 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 94 72 / 30 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 152023
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...
SOUTH OF THE 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF IH35...OVER THE
NORTH TO WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS THE
500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS NOT CARRIED AWAY TO
THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FAST
MOVING S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 72 94 72 / 30 10 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 71 93 71 / 30 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 94 72 / 30 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 70 94 71 / 40 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 103 73 104 73 / 30 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 70 92 70 / 40 20 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 70 96 71 / 30 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 70 92 71 / 30 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 86 73 91 72 / 30 10 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 91 72 94 73 / 30 10 - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 72 94 72 / 30 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
000
FXUS64 KEWX 151715
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1215 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN THE SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS EASTERN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED TSRA...SOME COULD BE SEVERE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z PM
THIS EVENING. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS PREVAILING
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM SHOW S/W ENERGY
FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO JUST WEST OF IH35...THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 1 PM TODAY...
AND THEN TO THE EASTERN PART OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF
A 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO KEEP CHANCES
OF MAINLY SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE...FROM CURRENT
TRENDS AND FORECAST SOLUTIONS. AS THE S/W ENERGY MOVES EAST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WEATHER TRENDS
AT THIS TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW DECREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS...IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE WEST
PART OF THE AREA...WITH NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING PERIOD TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR ADJACENT PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...AS INDICATED BY ONGOING FORECASTS...BY FROM TRENDS
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...AS THE 500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS
NOT CARRIED AWAY TO THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND THROUGH THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR
THURSDAY...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE
STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA
COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY TO THE SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH FROM
CENTRAL TX WHILE ANOTHER FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION IS PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
MORNING TERMINAL SITES WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE
FAR OFF...OR EAST OF A TPL TO VCT LINE. MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD MORE STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL TX
DISTURBANCE. THE STILL WEAK PATTERN OF TROUGHING ALOFT COULD MEAN
A WIDER TIME WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN A LIGHT NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TONIGHT. THUS WILL
FACTOR IN ENOUGH CAPPING TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAF PERIODS DESPITE AN EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF UP TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW-TO-MID LEVEL STABILITY
INCREASES THIS EVENING LOW CIGS SHOULD START AS MVFR LATE THIS
EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ON
WINDS...PREFER THE SLOWER SPEEDS OF THE NAM GUIDANCE TO REFLECT A
BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX AS THE AREA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY WHERE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... WE
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS
COULD AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
TEXAS. FOR NOW...THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 88 71 94 70 / 20 10 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 87 70 93 69 / 20 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 69 94 70 / 20 - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 69 94 69 / 20 10 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 103 73 104 73 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 69 92 69 / 20 10 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 69 96 70 / 10 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 70 92 69 / 20 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 86 73 91 71 / 30 10 10 - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 90 71 94 70 / 10 - - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 70 94 70 / 10 - - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 151543
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1043 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM SHOW S/W ENERGY
FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO JUST WEST OF IH35...THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 1 PM TODAY...
AND THEN TO THE EASTERN PART OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF
A 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO KEEP CHANCES
OF MAINLY SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERN PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE...FROM CURRENT
TRENDS AND FORECAST SOLUTIONS. AS THE S/W ENERGY MOVES EAST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WEATHER TRENDS
AT THIS TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW DECREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS...IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE WEST
PART OF THE AREA...WITH NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER IN THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING PERIOD TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR ADJACENT PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...AS INDICATED BY ONGOING FORECASTS...BY FROM TRENDS
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...AS THE 500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS
NOT CARRIED AWAY TO THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE
PAST WEEKEND THROUGH THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR
THURSDAY...THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE
STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA
COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY TO THE SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH FROM
CENTRAL TX WHILE ANOTHER FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION IS PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
MORNING TERMINAL SITES WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE
FAR OFF...OR EAST OF A TPL TO VCT LINE. MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD MORE STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL TX
DISTURBANCE. THE STILL WEAK PATTERN OF TROUGHING ALOFT COULD MEAN
A WIDER TIME WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN A LIGHT NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TONIGHT. THUS WILL
FACTOR IN ENOUGH CAPPING TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAF PERIODS DESPITE AN EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF UP TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW-TO-MID LEVEL STABILITY
INCREASES THIS EVENING LOW CIGS SHOULD START AS MVFR LATE THIS
EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ON
WINDS...PREFER THE SLOWER SPEEDS OF THE NAM GUIDANCE TO REFLECT A
BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX AS THE AREA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY WHERE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... WE
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS
COULD AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
TEXAS. FOR NOW...THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 69 88 71 94 / 60 20 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 67 87 70 93 / 60 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 89 69 94 / 60 20 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 88 69 94 / 50 20 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 103 73 104 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 67 85 69 92 / 60 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 95 69 96 / 40 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 87 70 92 / 60 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 70 86 73 91 / 60 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 70 90 71 94 / 50 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 90 70 94 / 50 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01/18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KEWX 151149
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH FROM
CENTRAL TX WHILE ANOTHER FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION IS PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
MORNING TERMINAL SITES WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE
FAR OFF...OR EAST OF A TPL TO VCT LINE. MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD MORE STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL TX
DISTURBANCE. THE STILL WEAK PATTERN OF TROUGHING ALOFT COULD MEAN
A WIDER TIME WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN A LIGHT NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TONIGHT. THUS WILL
FACTOR IN ENOUGH CAPPING TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAF PERIODS DESPITE AN EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF UP TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW-TO-MID LEVEL STABILITY
INCREASES THIS EVENING LOW CIGS SHOULD START AS MVFR LATE THIS
EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ON
WINDS...PREFER THE SLOWER SPEEDS OF THE NAM GUIDANCE TO REFLECT A
BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX AS THE AREA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY WHERE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... WE
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS
COULD AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
TEXAS. FOR NOW...THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 69 88 71 94 / 60 20 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 67 87 70 93 / 60 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 89 69 94 / 60 20 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 88 69 94 / 50 20 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 103 73 104 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 67 85 69 92 / 60 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 95 69 96 / 40 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 87 70 92 / 60 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 70 86 73 91 / 60 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 70 90 71 94 / 50 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 90 70 94 / 50 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
000
FXUS64 KEWX 150856
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY WHERE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... WE
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS
COULD AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
TEXAS. FOR NOW...THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 69 88 71 94 / 60 20 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 67 87 70 93 / 60 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 89 69 94 / 60 20 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 88 69 94 / 50 20 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 103 73 104 / 20 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 67 85 69 92 / 60 20 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 95 69 96 / 40 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 87 70 92 / 60 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 70 86 73 91 / 60 30 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 70 90 71 94 / 50 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 90 70 94 / 50 10 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
| 
