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000
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









000
FXUS64 KEWX 202021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30









000
FXUS64 KEWX 201729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL
4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT
CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.

DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z
TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL
4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT
CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.

DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z
TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 201121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING. CIGS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THERE IS
ALSO PATCHY FOG ENCROACHING ON I-35. HAVE DROPPED VIS AT AUS WITH
A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SAN
ANTONIO AND IFR AT DRT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA/SHRA AT DRT TODAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. FLOW WILL BE MORE
EASTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BE LESS THAN
VFR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200816
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200816
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LATE COMING IN TONIGHT SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
NEW DATA TO LOOK AT...SO AS A RESULT ONLY TWEAKED THE ONGOING SET OF
TAFS WITH DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS CLOSER TO DAWN.
NO MENTION OF POP IN THE FORECAST AS CHANCES REMAIN TO LOW. SKIES
SHOULD GO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LATE COMING IN TONIGHT SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
NEW DATA TO LOOK AT...SO AS A RESULT ONLY TWEAKED THE ONGOING SET OF
TAFS WITH DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS CLOSER TO DAWN.
NO MENTION OF POP IN THE FORECAST AS CHANCES REMAIN TO LOW. SKIES
SHOULD GO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200136 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 200136 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200136
AFDEWX
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









000
FXUS64 KEWX 192340
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192340
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192340
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 192340
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191735
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE
TAFS AS NUMERICAL MODELS/CROSS SECTIONS/WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE
SUPPORT A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING FOR MONDAY MORNING. AUS SHOULD
BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SAT/SSF MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE DRT WILL STAY VFR BKN
ALL DAY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STAYED ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIVER AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO NO MENTION
OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS. DRT WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM 09Z TO 15Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRATUS.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW MORNING AT 5-10 KNOTS. THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF SAT/SSF/AUS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY 3-6SM BR THROUGH 14Z ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS POOLED FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MEXICO...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHRAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MORNING IN THE
DRT TAF...AND AT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE CAN EVALUATE FURTHER IF NEEDED
TO INCLUDE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENING AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AMPLIFYING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OUR
WESTERN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENING TO A TROUGH AND THE
PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CUTOFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THOUGH
THESE BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF...THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE DIFFERENT. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL BRING COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  63  82  63  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  58  82  59  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  62  84  62  84 /  10  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  60  80  60  80 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  66  80  65  80 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  82  61  82 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  84  61  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  83  61  83 /  10  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  62  83  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  64  84  65  85 /  10  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  64  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191735
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE
TAFS AS NUMERICAL MODELS/CROSS SECTIONS/WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE
SUPPORT A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING FOR MONDAY MORNING. AUS SHOULD
BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SAT/SSF MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE DRT WILL STAY VFR BKN
ALL DAY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STAYED ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIVER AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SO NO MENTION
OF PRECIP IN THE TAFS. DRT WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM 09Z TO 15Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRATUS.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW MORNING AT 5-10 KNOTS. THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF SAT/SSF/AUS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY 3-6SM BR THROUGH 14Z ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS POOLED FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MEXICO...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHRAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MORNING IN THE
DRT TAF...AND AT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE CAN EVALUATE FURTHER IF NEEDED
TO INCLUDE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENING AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AMPLIFYING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OUR
WESTERN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENING TO A TROUGH AND THE
PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CUTOFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THOUGH
THESE BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF...THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE DIFFERENT. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL BRING COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  63  82  63  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  58  82  59  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  62  84  62  84 /  10  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  60  80  60  80 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  66  80  65  80 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  82  61  82 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  84  61  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  83  61  83 /  10  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  62  83  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  64  84  65  85 /  10  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  64  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191138
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
638 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF SAT/SSF/AUS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY 3-6SM BR THROUGH 14Z ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS POOLED FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MEXICO...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHRAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MORNING IN THE
DRT TAF...AND AT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE CAN EVALUATE FURTHER IF NEEDED
TO INCLUDE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENING AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AMPLIFYING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OUR
WESTERN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENING TO A TROUGH AND THE
PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CUTOFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THOUGH
THESE BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF...THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE DIFFERENT. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL BRING COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  63  82  63  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  58  82  59  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  62  84  62  84 /  10  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  60  80  60  80 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  66  80  65  80 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  82  61  82 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  84  61  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  83  61  83 /  10  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  62  83  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  64  84  65  85 /  10  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  64  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191138
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
638 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF SAT/SSF/AUS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY 3-6SM BR THROUGH 14Z ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS POOLED FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MEXICO...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHRAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE MORNING IN THE
DRT TAF...AND AT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE CAN EVALUATE FURTHER IF NEEDED
TO INCLUDE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENING AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AMPLIFYING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OUR
WESTERN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENING TO A TROUGH AND THE
PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CUTOFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THOUGH
THESE BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF...THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE DIFFERENT. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL BRING COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  63  82  63  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  58  82  59  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  62  84  62  84 /  10  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  60  80  60  80 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  66  80  65  80 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  82  61  82 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  84  61  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  83  61  83 /  10  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  62  83  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  64  84  65  85 /  10  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  64  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENING AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AMPLIFYING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OUR
WESTERN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENING TO A TROUGH AND THE
PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CUTOFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THOUGH
THESE BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF...THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE DIFFERENT. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL BRING COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  63  82  63  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  58  82  59  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  62  84  62  84 /  10  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  60  80  60  80 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  66  80  65  80 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  82  61  82 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  84  61  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  83  61  83 /  10  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  62  83  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  64  84  65  85 /  10  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  64  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENING AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER MOISTURE WAS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AMPLIFYING DURING THIS PERIOD. AT
THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER OUR
WESTERN AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENING TO A TROUGH AND THE
PATTERN BECOMING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. GFS CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CUTOFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW. BUT EVEN THOUGH
THESE BOTH SHOW A CUTOFF...THE POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE ARE DIFFERENT. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY. LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WILL BRING COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  63  82  63  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  58  82  59  83 /  10  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  62  84  62  84 /  10  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  60  80  60  80 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  66  80  65  80 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  82  61  82 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  84  61  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  83  61  83 /  10  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  62  83  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  64  84  65  85 /  10  -   10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  64  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 190440
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS. MODELS ARE STILL CALLING FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS...MORE ROBUST FOR DRT/SSF/SAT. STILL
SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AROUND AND THAT MAY HELP TO DELAY
DEVELOPMENT JUST A BIT. HARD TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS RIGHT
NOW ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS LIKE WE SAW AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
FOR THAT REASON PUSHED BACK THE TIME OF ARRIVAL AT DRT BUT LEFT
THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ALONE WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY 7-9Z.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW. LOOKING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JUST HAD A SMALL SHOWER SHOW UP TO
THE EAST OF DRT BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TERMINALS AS POP
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM LOOKING FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO
DEVELOP FOR ALL TAF SITES. NAM GUIDANCE IS VERY ROBUST IN THE IFR
AND EVEN LIFR IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT
IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MOS. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS
IN DRT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT WILL BRING THEM INTO VFR
RANGE BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE MORNING IFR/MVFR DECKS SHOULD
GO VFR BY NOON AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LIKE
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SO DRT
HAS THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME PRECIP. CHANCES STILL TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INPUT INTO THE TAF. WINDS ALONG THE I35 SITES WILL
MAINTAIN A NE OR EAST DIRECTION...WHILE DRT WILL BE MORE SE.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO CLOUDS HANGING IN
LONGER THERE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST DILEMMA RESOLVES AROUND HOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS
WITH THE WEAKENED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE
PERSISTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ALL MODELS MERGE THE SHORT-WAVE AND TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS MERGED THEM OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN MERGING IT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING IT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. LAST EVENINGS
00Z ECMWF RUN TOOK THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GEM
MERGES THEM OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THEM INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAVGEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING THEM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS...WILL GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  84  63  84  62 /  -   10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  84  59  83  57 /  -   10  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  62  84  60 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  80  60  81  59 /  -   10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  79  65  82  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  59  83  58 /  -   10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  85  63  84  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  61  84  59 /  -   10  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  62  84  61 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  86  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 190440
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING SET OF TERMINAL
FORECASTS. MODELS ARE STILL CALLING FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS...MORE ROBUST FOR DRT/SSF/SAT. STILL
SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AROUND AND THAT MAY HELP TO DELAY
DEVELOPMENT JUST A BIT. HARD TO SEE ANY ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDS RIGHT
NOW ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS LIKE WE SAW AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
FOR THAT REASON PUSHED BACK THE TIME OF ARRIVAL AT DRT BUT LEFT
THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ALONE WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY 7-9Z.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW. LOOKING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JUST HAD A SMALL SHOWER SHOW UP TO
THE EAST OF DRT BUT WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE TERMINALS AS POP
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM LOOKING FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO
DEVELOP FOR ALL TAF SITES. NAM GUIDANCE IS VERY ROBUST IN THE IFR
AND EVEN LIFR IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT
IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MOS. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS
IN DRT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT WILL BRING THEM INTO VFR
RANGE BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE MORNING IFR/MVFR DECKS SHOULD
GO VFR BY NOON AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LIKE
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SO DRT
HAS THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME PRECIP. CHANCES STILL TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INPUT INTO THE TAF. WINDS ALONG THE I35 SITES WILL
MAINTAIN A NE OR EAST DIRECTION...WHILE DRT WILL BE MORE SE.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO CLOUDS HANGING IN
LONGER THERE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST DILEMMA RESOLVES AROUND HOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS
WITH THE WEAKENED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE
PERSISTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ALL MODELS MERGE THE SHORT-WAVE AND TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS MERGED THEM OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN MERGING IT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING IT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. LAST EVENINGS
00Z ECMWF RUN TOOK THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GEM
MERGES THEM OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THEM INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAVGEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING THEM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS...WILL GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  84  63  84  62 /  -   10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  84  59  83  57 /  -   10  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  62  84  60 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  80  60  81  59 /  -   10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  79  65  82  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  59  83  58 /  -   10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  85  63  84  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  61  84  59 /  -   10  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  62  84  61 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  86  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 182327
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM LOOKING FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO
DEVELOP FOR ALL TAF SITES. NAM GUIDANCE IS VERY ROBUST IN THE IFR
AND EVEN LIFR IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT
IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MOS. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS
IN DRT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT WILL BRING THEM INTO VFR
RANGE BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE MORNING IFR/MVFR DECKS SHOULD
GO VFR BY NOON AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LIKE
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SO DRT
HAS THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME PRECIP. CHANCES STILL TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INPUT INTO THE TAF. WINDS ALONG THE I35 SITES WILL
MAINTAIN A NE OR EAST DIRECTION...WHILE DRT WILL BE MORE SE.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO CLOUDS HANGING IN
LONGER THERE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST DILEMMA RESOLVES AROUND HOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS
WITH THE WEAKENED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE
PERSISTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ALL MODELS MERGE THE SHORT-WAVE AND TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS MERGED THEM OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN MERGING IT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING IT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. LAST EVENINGS
00Z ECMWF RUN TOOK THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GEM
MERGES THEM OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THEM INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAVGEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING THEM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS...WILL GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  84  63  84  62 /  -   10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  84  59  83  57 /  -   10  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  62  84  60 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  80  60  81  59 /  -   10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  79  65  82  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  59  83  58 /  -   10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  85  63  84  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  61  84  59 /  -   10  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  62  84  61 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  86  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 182327
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT AM LOOKING FOR MVFR AND THEN IFR TO
DEVELOP FOR ALL TAF SITES. NAM GUIDANCE IS VERY ROBUST IN THE IFR
AND EVEN LIFR IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT
IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MOS. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS
IN DRT MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT WILL BRING THEM INTO VFR
RANGE BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE MORNING IFR/MVFR DECKS SHOULD
GO VFR BY NOON AND THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON LIKE
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SO DRT
HAS THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SOME PRECIP. CHANCES STILL TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO INPUT INTO THE TAF. WINDS ALONG THE I35 SITES WILL
MAINTAIN A NE OR EAST DIRECTION...WHILE DRT WILL BE MORE SE.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO CLOUDS HANGING IN
LONGER THERE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST DILEMMA RESOLVES AROUND HOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS
WITH THE WEAKENED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE
PERSISTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ALL MODELS MERGE THE SHORT-WAVE AND TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS MERGED THEM OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN MERGING IT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING IT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. LAST EVENINGS
00Z ECMWF RUN TOOK THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GEM
MERGES THEM OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THEM INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAVGEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING THEM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS...WILL GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  84  63  84  62 /  -   10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  84  59  83  57 /  -   10  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  62  84  60 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  80  60  81  59 /  -   10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  79  65  82  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  59  83  58 /  -   10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  85  63  84  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  61  84  59 /  -   10  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  62  84  61 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  86  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 182034
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO CLOUDS HANGING IN
LONGER THERE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST DILEMMA RESOLVES AROUND HOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS
WITH THE WEAKENED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE
PERSISTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ALL MODELS MERGE THE SHORT-WAVE AND TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS MERGED THEM OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN MERGING IT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING IT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. LAST EVENINGS
00Z ECMWF RUN TOOK THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GEM
MERGES THEM OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THEM INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAVGEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING THEM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS...WILL GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  84  63  84  62 /  -   10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  84  59  83  57 /  -   10  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  62  84  60 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  80  60  81  59 /  -   10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  79  65  82  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  59  83  58 /  -   10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  85  63  84  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  61  84  59 /  -   10  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  62  84  61 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  86  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 182034
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
334 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY
AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO THE RIVER. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO CLOUDS HANGING IN
LONGER THERE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST DILEMMA RESOLVES AROUND HOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTERACTS
WITH THE WEAKENED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE
PERSISTS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ALL MODELS MERGE THE SHORT-WAVE AND TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS MERGED THEM OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND
THEN MERGING IT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ON FRIDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MOVING IT OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY. LAST EVENINGS
00Z ECMWF RUN TOOK THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GEM
MERGES THEM OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THEM INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NAVGEM REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PASSING THEM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GOTTEN CLOSER IN
THEIR 12Z RUNS...WILL GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY INTO POSSIBLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS
SHOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  84  63  84  62 /  -   10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  84  59  83  57 /  -   10  -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  62  84  60 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  80  60  81  59 /  -   10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           67  79  65  82  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  82  59  83  58 /  -   10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  85  63  84  61 /  10  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        62  86  61  84  59 /  -   10  -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  62  84  61 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  86  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  86  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181727
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CIGS.
VFR SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT THESE ARE NO THREAT TO ANY
OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO RETURN THE AREA EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
EXISTS. DRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BY 08Z AND CAN EXPECT IFR CIGS
AROUND 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT DRT TO MVFR AGAIN BY 13Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT DRT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. AT THE I-35 TERMINALS EXPECT MVFR AROUND 9Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH ALL TERMINALS BREAKING OUT TO VFR AROUND 17Z SUNDAY.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35...AND MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AUS AND DRT THROUGH 14Z. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. A REPEAT OF STRATUS IS LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OUT WEST NEAR DRT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT THIS TIME IS LOWER FOR I-35 SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF BR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT A MIX OF BOTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /  -   -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 181727
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CIGS.
VFR SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT THESE ARE NO THREAT TO ANY
OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO RETURN THE AREA EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
EXISTS. DRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BY 08Z AND CAN EXPECT IFR CIGS
AROUND 10Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT DRT TO MVFR AGAIN BY 13Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT DRT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR AN EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. AT THE I-35 TERMINALS EXPECT MVFR AROUND 9Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH ALL TERMINALS BREAKING OUT TO VFR AROUND 17Z SUNDAY.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35...AND MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AUS AND DRT THROUGH 14Z. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. A REPEAT OF STRATUS IS LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OUT WEST NEAR DRT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT THIS TIME IS LOWER FOR I-35 SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF BR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT A MIX OF BOTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /  -   -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35...AND MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AUS AND DRT THROUGH 14Z. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. A REPEAT OF STRATUS IS LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OUT WEST NEAR DRT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT THIS TIME IS LOWER FOR I-35 SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF BR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT A MIX OF BOTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /   0  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 181143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35...AND MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AUS AND DRT THROUGH 14Z. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. A REPEAT OF STRATUS IS LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OUT WEST NEAR DRT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT THIS TIME IS LOWER FOR I-35 SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF BR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT A MIX OF BOTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /   0  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35...AND MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AUS AND DRT THROUGH 14Z. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. A REPEAT OF STRATUS IS LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OUT WEST NEAR DRT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT THIS TIME IS LOWER FOR I-35 SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF BR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT A MIX OF BOTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /   0  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35...AND MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AUS AND DRT THROUGH 14Z. EVENTUALLY STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. A REPEAT OF STRATUS IS LIKELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OUT WEST NEAR DRT AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY.
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS AT THIS TIME IS LOWER FOR I-35 SITES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF BR...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT A MIX OF BOTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /   0  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180829
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /   0  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 180829
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID-LEVELS
STILL DRY. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ERODE AS
IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH UP THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL MEAN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SPREAD UP THE WESTERN AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
WIN OUT OVER TOP OF OUR CWA...TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH INTO WEST
TEXAS AND MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE A CUTOFF LOW...AND THEY DO NOT AGREE ON LOCATION OF
CUTOFF. WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POPS WITH THIS DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  64  82  63  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  60  83  59  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  64  85  62  84 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  61  80  60  80 /   0  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  67  81  65  82 /  -   20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  61  81  60  82 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  64  83  60  84 /  -   10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  62  84  61  83 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  64  84  62  84 /  -   -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  67  85  64  84 /  -   10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  85  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180445 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW CLOUDS ADVECT
NORTHWARD. WE STILL EXPECT THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO BEGIN BETWEEN 07Z-08Z TO AROUND 11Z AT KDRT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO LIFT THE LOW CLOUD DECK. VFR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS
AFTER 19/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS BUT MOST OF THAT IS THE TYPICAL
EVENING INCREASE AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND MIXING COMES TO AN END.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. I
INCREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS PAST MIDNIGHT TO SHOW THIS TREND.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING NEAR THE CRP AREA AND JUST INLAND
OF THAT AREA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA AS IT SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWEST
AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS TEXAS FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO WICHITA FALLS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING OUR NICE WEATHER
HAS FLATTENED RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING FROM THE BAHA INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES.

THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY AND WASH
OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL BOTH SHOW
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE MOISTURE RETURN.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF AND ONLY INCLUDED 20% POPS FOR
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN MOISTURE RETURN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE STRONGEST RETURN BEING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
CUT OFF LOW TO THE WEST WILL YIELD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES OUT
WEST WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SKIRTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES INTO WEST TEXAS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. MODELS
DISAGREE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PARKING A CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WHILE THE GFS
DIGS THE LOW SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO LOUISIANA. FOR NOW WILL
ONLY CARRY 20% POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  84  63  82  62 /  10  10  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  60  82  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  86  63  84  61 /  10  10  -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  81  60  80  59 /  10  10  -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  85  66  82  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  83  61  81  59 /  10  10  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  87  65  84  60 /  10  10  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  85  62  83  60 /  10  10  -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  64  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  86  66  83  64 /  10  10  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  87  66  84  63 /  10  10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 180445 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW CLOUDS ADVECT
NORTHWARD. WE STILL EXPECT THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO BEGIN BETWEEN 07Z-08Z TO AROUND 11Z AT KDRT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO LIFT THE LOW CLOUD DECK. VFR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS
AFTER 19/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS BUT MOST OF THAT IS THE TYPICAL
EVENING INCREASE AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND MIXING COMES TO AN END.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. I
INCREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS PAST MIDNIGHT TO SHOW THIS TREND.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING NEAR THE CRP AREA AND JUST INLAND
OF THAT AREA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA AS IT SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWEST
AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS TEXAS FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO WICHITA FALLS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING OUR NICE WEATHER
HAS FLATTENED RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING FROM THE BAHA INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES.

THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY AND WASH
OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL BOTH SHOW
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE MOISTURE RETURN.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF AND ONLY INCLUDED 20% POPS FOR
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN MOISTURE RETURN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE STRONGEST RETURN BEING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
CUT OFF LOW TO THE WEST WILL YIELD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES OUT
WEST WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SKIRTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES INTO WEST TEXAS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. MODELS
DISAGREE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PARKING A CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WHILE THE GFS
DIGS THE LOW SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO LOUISIANA. FOR NOW WILL
ONLY CARRY 20% POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  84  63  82  62 /  10  10  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  60  82  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  86  63  84  61 /  10  10  -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  81  60  80  59 /  10  10  -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  85  66  82  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  83  61  81  59 /  10  10  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  87  65  84  60 /  10  10  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  85  62  83  60 /  10  10  -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  64  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  86  66  83  64 /  10  10  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  87  66  84  63 /  10  10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









000
FXUS64 KEWX 180445 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE 06Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW CLOUDS ADVECT
NORTHWARD. WE STILL EXPECT THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO BEGIN BETWEEN 07Z-08Z TO AROUND 11Z AT KDRT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR FOR ALL TAF SITES AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO LIFT THE LOW CLOUD DECK. VFR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS
AFTER 19/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS BUT MOST OF THAT IS THE TYPICAL
EVENING INCREASE AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE AND MIXING COMES TO AN END.
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. I
INCREASED THE CLOUD GRIDS PAST MIDNIGHT TO SHOW THIS TREND.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS FORMING NEAR THE CRP AREA AND JUST INLAND
OF THAT AREA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA AS IT SHOULD EXPAND NORTHWEST
AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS TEXAS FROM MIDLAND NORTHEAST TO WICHITA FALLS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PRODUCING OUR NICE WEATHER
HAS FLATTENED RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CUT OFF LOW MOVING FROM THE BAHA INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES.

THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY AND WASH
OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL BOTH SHOW
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE MOISTURE RETURN.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF AND ONLY INCLUDED 20% POPS FOR
PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE START OF
THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN MOISTURE RETURN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE STRONGEST RETURN BEING ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
CUT OFF LOW TO THE WEST WILL YIELD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES OUT
WEST WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SKIRTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES INTO WEST TEXAS. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. MODELS
DISAGREE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PARKING A CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WHILE THE GFS
DIGS THE LOW SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA TO LOUISIANA. FOR NOW WILL
ONLY CARRY 20% POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  84  63  82  62 /  10  10  -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  60  82  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  86  63  84  61 /  10  10  -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  81  60  80  59 /  10  10  -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  85  66  82  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  83  61  81  59 /  10  10  -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  87  65  84  60 /  10  10  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  85  62  83  60 /  10  10  -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   64  85  64  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  86  66  83  64 /  10  10  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  87  66  84  63 /  10  10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32









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