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000
FXUS64 KEWX 020851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18








000
FXUS64 KEWX 020851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 020426
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FOG/LOW-CLOUD ENHANCEMENT IS
ALREADY SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING EAST OF
KPEZ. WE STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS STRATUS AT THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FROM 16-21Z UNTIL MIXING FINALLY
BRINGS SCT CLOUDS AFTER 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FROM 12-16Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 16Z AT KDRT...AND
FROM 21Z-03Z AT THE I-35 SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE I-35 SITES AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 020426
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FOG/LOW-CLOUD ENHANCEMENT IS
ALREADY SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING EAST OF
KPEZ. WE STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS STRATUS AT THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FROM 16-21Z UNTIL MIXING FINALLY
BRINGS SCT CLOUDS AFTER 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FROM 12-16Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 16Z AT KDRT...AND
FROM 21Z-03Z AT THE I-35 SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE I-35 SITES AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 020132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  77  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  76  97  74  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -    0  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  94 /  -    0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  74  94 /  -    0  10  10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  96  75  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  96  76  96 /  20  10  30  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  78  98  76  96 /  -    0  10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12









000
FXUS64 KEWX 020132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  77  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  76  97  74  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -    0  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  94 /  -    0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  74  94 /  -    0  10  10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  96  75  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  96  76  96 /  20  10  30  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  78  98  76  96 /  -    0  10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12








000
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...06Z-16Z...IFR/MVFR
CIGS LIFTING AND MIXING OUT TO VFR SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING...16Z-06Z...WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED SE OF A KBEA TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NW TO A KFTN TO KHDO TO KGTU LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO PROBS
OF ONLY 20 AT THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES OF KAUS/KSAT. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE MENTION IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY.
GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...
BKN MVFR STRATUS PREVAILS THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AS WELL AS WEST TOWARD UVA/HDO. MAY EXPAND TOWARD DRT
12Z-16Z. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT 15Z-16Z...WITH FEW-SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS...WORKING INLAND LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
SAT/SSF TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATE
MORNING...GUSTY EARLY EVENING AT SAT/SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011741
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...06Z-16Z...IFR/MVFR
CIGS LIFTING AND MIXING OUT TO VFR SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH
EVENING...16Z-06Z...WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED SE OF A KBEA TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACTS TO TAF SITES. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND SPREAD NW TO A KFTN TO KHDO TO KGTU LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO PROBS
OF ONLY 20 AT THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES OF KAUS/KSAT. HOWEVER...WILL
MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE MENTION IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE BACK TO 10 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY.
GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...
BKN MVFR STRATUS PREVAILS THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AS WELL AS WEST TOWARD UVA/HDO. MAY EXPAND TOWARD DRT
12Z-16Z. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT 15Z-16Z...WITH FEW-SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS...WORKING INLAND LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
SAT/SSF TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATE
MORNING...GUSTY EARLY EVENING AT SAT/SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 011123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN MVFR STRATUS PREVAILS THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AS WELL AS WEST TOWARD UVA/HDO. MAY EXPAND TOWARD DRT
12Z-16Z. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT 15Z-16Z...WITH FEW-SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS...WORKING INLAND LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
SAT/SSF TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATE
MORNING...GUSTY EARLY EVENING AT SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN MVFR STRATUS PREVAILS THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AS WELL AS WEST TOWARD UVA/HDO. MAY EXPAND TOWARD DRT
12Z-16Z. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT 15Z-16Z...WITH FEW-SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRAS POSSIBLE MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS...WORKING INLAND LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
SAT/SSF TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AFTER
06Z. S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATE
MORNING...GUSTY EARLY EVENING AT SAT/SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010854
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010854
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A FLAT E-W ORIENTED RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT OVER CENTRAL TX WILL
LEAD TO HOT...BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING
103 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL ALSO HOLD MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE
DAY...DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FEEDING
FROM A BROAD DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. ENHANCED
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT
THE STABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER CENTRAL TX...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TX SHOULD GET REPEATED ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1/2 INCH.
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WELL SOUTH
OF BRO...THE MINOR DENT MADE INTO THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH STABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SOFTEN UP
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME 20-30 POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR SUNDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT THE GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTH TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  76  95 /  -   -   20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -   -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  95 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  94 /  -   -   10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  96  75  95 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  96  76  94 /  20  10  40  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  77  98  77  94 /  -   -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010420 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS
OCCURRED WITH SSF...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
ARE BREEZIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE CORE OF THE
TAFS WAS LEFT INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN FACT...THE 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOWERED
CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE VCT OBSERVATION IN THE NEIGHBORING WFO
CRP CWFA INDICATING BKN016 AS THE CLOUDS PASSED FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...AND THE T20 NEAR GONZALES CURRENTLY INDICATING SCT014.
THESE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...LABOR DAY...INCREASING SURFACE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TO
RETURN VFR AROUND THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN HOLDING FIRM...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO RE-TREND THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE STILL EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS
EAST AFTER 07Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS THINNING OVER THE AERODROMES...AND
THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IF NOT
ENDING ALTOGETHER...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT
TERM. INHERITED TAF PACKAGE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND WAS KEPT
LARGELY INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. STORY REMAINS THE SAME: VFR RIGHT NOW WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL YIELD TO MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF LABOR DAY UNTIL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE BRINGS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH
RISING CEILINGS AND THUS VFR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MVFR WON/T
CREEP BACK INTO THE TAFS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY INDICATE
THIS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010420 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS
OCCURRED WITH SSF...WHERE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS
ARE BREEZIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE CORE OF THE
TAFS WAS LEFT INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN FACT...THE 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOWERED
CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH THE VCT OBSERVATION IN THE NEIGHBORING WFO
CRP CWFA INDICATING BKN016 AS THE CLOUDS PASSED FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...AND THE T20 NEAR GONZALES CURRENTLY INDICATING SCT014.
THESE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...LABOR DAY...INCREASING SURFACE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING TO
RETURN VFR AROUND THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN HOLDING FIRM...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO RE-TREND THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE STILL EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS
EAST AFTER 07Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS THINNING OVER THE AERODROMES...AND
THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IF NOT
ENDING ALTOGETHER...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT
TERM. INHERITED TAF PACKAGE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND WAS KEPT
LARGELY INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. STORY REMAINS THE SAME: VFR RIGHT NOW WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL YIELD TO MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF LABOR DAY UNTIL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE BRINGS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH
RISING CEILINGS AND THUS VFR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MVFR WON/T
CREEP BACK INTO THE TAFS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY INDICATE
THIS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
830 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO RE-TREND THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE STILL EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS
EAST AFTER 07Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS THINNING OVER THE AERODROMES...AND
THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IF NOT
ENDING ALTOGETHER...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT
TERM. INHERITED TAF PACKAGE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND WAS KEPT
LARGELY INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. STORY REMAINS THE SAME: VFR RIGHT NOW WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL YIELD TO MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF LABOR DAY UNTIL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE BRINGS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH
RISING CEILINGS AND THUS VFR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MVFR WON/T
CREEP BACK INTO THE TAFS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY INDICATE
THIS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
830 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO RE-TREND THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE STILL EXPECT
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS
EAST AFTER 07Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS THINNING OVER THE AERODROMES...AND
THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IF NOT
ENDING ALTOGETHER...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT
TERM. INHERITED TAF PACKAGE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND WAS KEPT
LARGELY INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. STORY REMAINS THE SAME: VFR RIGHT NOW WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL YIELD TO MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF LABOR DAY UNTIL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE BRINGS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH
RISING CEILINGS AND THUS VFR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MVFR WON/T
CREEP BACK INTO THE TAFS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY INDICATE
THIS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312335 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS THINNING OVER THE AERODROMES...AND
THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IF NOT
ENDING ALTOGETHER...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT
TERM. INHERITED TAF PACKAGE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND WAS KEPT
LARGELY INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. STORY REMAINS THE SAME: VFR RIGHT NOW WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL YIELD TO MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF LABOR DAY UNTIL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE BRINGS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH
RISING CEILINGS AND THUS VFR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MVFR WON/T
CREEP BACK INTO THE TAFS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY INDICATE
THIS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 312335 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...CUMULUS FIELD IS THINNING OVER THE AERODROMES...AND
THUS THE RISK OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IF NOT
ENDING ALTOGETHER...SO MAINTAINED DRY TAFS IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT
TERM. INHERITED TAF PACKAGE LOOKED VERY REASONABLE AND WAS KEPT
LARGELY INTACT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS. STORY REMAINS THE SAME: VFR RIGHT NOW WITHIN SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL YIELD TO MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FORMATION OF
LOW STRATUS. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF LABOR DAY UNTIL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SUNSHINE BRINGS ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH
RISING CEILINGS AND THUS VFR. NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MVFR WON/T
CREEP BACK INTO THE TAFS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY INDICATE
THIS IN THE NEXT ROUND OF TAFS TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 312029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE SHEAR
AXIS WILL FILL IN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. ON
MONDAY...LABOR DAY...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...DECREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE LEAD TO NO POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIFTS TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE
TO MOVE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY. PASSAGE
OF THE EASTERLY WAVE...SOME MODELS STRENGTHEN IT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SPREAD TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WITH HIGHER PWS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SPREADING WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. PWS OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES AND FORECAST STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE RATHER SLOW INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXCEPT...A SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF NORTHERN AREAS. NEXT
WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DRIFTS BACK SOUTH BRINGING A DRIER
AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LEADING TO NO RAIN FOR SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  99  78  98  77 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  76  97  75 /  -   10  -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  76  98  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  79  99  77 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  77  96  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  76  98  76 /  -   -   -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  98  76  97  76 /  -   10  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  77  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  79  98  78 /  -   -   -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 100  78  98  77 /  -   10  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 311734
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL GO WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MVFR DEVELOPING AT THE
SITES ANYWHERE BETWEEN 06-09Z...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 15-16Z BEFORE
VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERLYING
CONDITIONS AND SIMULATED WRF SHOWING THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TOO ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF LOCATIONS. BASED
ON TRAJECTORIES...AUS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST WHILE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER. THIS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN LONGER
OVER MOST AREAS AS WELL AS SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-35. HAVE ONLY
REESTABLISHED THE TRENDS TO THESE PARAMETERS AS EXPECT MIXING TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED. ALSO EXTENDED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETREAT SOUTH TO THE COASTAL BEND WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR THE I-35
TERMINALS. NO TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION ARE PROVIDED AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE PATTERN
WITH LOW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 16Z TODAY AND
MONDAY. A BRIEF POCKET OF THESE MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE DRT
VCNTY LATE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 311734
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL GO WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MVFR DEVELOPING AT THE
SITES ANYWHERE BETWEEN 06-09Z...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 15-16Z BEFORE
VFR RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERLYING
CONDITIONS AND SIMULATED WRF SHOWING THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TOO ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF LOCATIONS. BASED
ON TRAJECTORIES...AUS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST WHILE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER. THIS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN LONGER
OVER MOST AREAS AS WELL AS SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-35. HAVE ONLY
REESTABLISHED THE TRENDS TO THESE PARAMETERS AS EXPECT MIXING TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED. ALSO EXTENDED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETREAT SOUTH TO THE COASTAL BEND WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR THE I-35
TERMINALS. NO TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION ARE PROVIDED AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE PATTERN
WITH LOW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 16Z TODAY AND
MONDAY. A BRIEF POCKET OF THESE MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE DRT
VCNTY LATE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 311541
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST WHILE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER. THIS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN LONGER
OVER MOST AREAS AS WELL AS SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-35. HAVE ONLY
REESTABLISHED THE TRENDS TO THESE PARAMETERS AS EXPECT MIXING TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED. ALSO EXTENDED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETREAT SOUTH TO THE COASTAL BEND WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR THE I-35
TERMINALS. NO TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION ARE PROVIDED AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE PATTERN
WITH LOW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 16Z TODAY AND
MONDAY. A BRIEF POCKET OF THESE MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE DRT
VCNTY LATE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 311541
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECAST WHILE DEWPOINTS
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER. THIS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN LONGER
OVER MOST AREAS AS WELL AS SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-35. HAVE ONLY
REESTABLISHED THE TRENDS TO THESE PARAMETERS AS EXPECT MIXING TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED. ALSO EXTENDED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETREAT SOUTH TO THE COASTAL BEND WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR THE I-35
TERMINALS. NO TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION ARE PROVIDED AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE PATTERN
WITH LOW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 16Z TODAY AND
MONDAY. A BRIEF POCKET OF THESE MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE DRT
VCNTY LATE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  10  -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 311139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETREAT SOUTH TO THE COASTAL BEND WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR THE I-35
TERMINALS. NO TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION ARE PROVIDED AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE PATTERN
WITH LOW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 16Z TODAY AND
MONDAY. A BRIEF POCKET OF THESE MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE DRT
VCNTY LATE THIS MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 311139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL RETREAT SOUTH TO THE COASTAL BEND WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR THE I-35
TERMINALS. NO TEMPO PERIODS FOR CONVECTION ARE PROVIDED AT THIS
TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT OF A PERSISTENCE PATTERN
WITH LOW MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 16Z TODAY AND
MONDAY. A BRIEF POCKET OF THESE MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE DRT
VCNTY LATE THIS MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 310848
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17










000
FXUS64 KEWX 310848
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH (NEAR 2
INCHES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAVACA...DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

BY MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA WHILE STRETCHES TO THE EAST.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER INVERTED TROUGH SITS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
MONDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THEN...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING A
FORMATION CHANCE OF 50% BY MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE PLENTY TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARRIVING TO TEXAS COAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THAT PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REGAIN CONTROL AND SITS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  99  78  97 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  96  74  98  75  97 /  20  -   10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  74  99  76  98 /  20  -   10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  96  75  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77 100  78  99 /  -   -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  98  74  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  98  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  76  97  76  96 /  30  10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  77  99  79  98 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  76 100  78  98 /  20  -   10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17









000
FXUS64 KEWX 310420 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS NOW CEASED WITHIN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...NOT THAT ANY OF IT WAS THREATENING THE AERODROMES ANYWAY.
LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THIS CONVECTION AND CIRRUS STREAMING UP FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS THE MOST EXCITING THING OVER THE EWX CWFA
RIGHT NOW...WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HANGING ON.
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...AN MVFR DECK OF STRATUS WILL
FORM AND PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AERODROMES AS THE SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTEN. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AROUND MID-MORNING ON
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME MODERATE WITH BREEZY GUSTS AS CEILINGS
RISE. THE REVERSE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL COUPLE WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING CEILINGS TO ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE MVFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED ON KDFX RADAR... BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER...
WINDS AND DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 310420 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...ALL CONVECTION HAS NOW CEASED WITHIN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...NOT THAT ANY OF IT WAS THREATENING THE AERODROMES ANYWAY.
LEFTOVER CIRRUS FROM THIS CONVECTION AND CIRRUS STREAMING UP FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS THE MOST EXCITING THING OVER THE EWX CWFA
RIGHT NOW...WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SURFACE WINDS HANGING ON.
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...AN MVFR DECK OF STRATUS WILL
FORM AND PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AERODROMES AS THE SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTEN. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AROUND MID-MORNING ON
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME MODERATE WITH BREEZY GUSTS AS CEILINGS
RISE. THE REVERSE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL COUPLE WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING CEILINGS TO ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE MVFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED ON KDFX RADAR... BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER...
WINDS AND DEW POINTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 310324 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED ON KDFX RADAR... BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER...
WINDS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12










000
FXUS64 KEWX 310324 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE NOTED ON KDFX RADAR... BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER...
WINDS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12











000
FXUS64 KEWX 302331 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI






000
FXUS64 KEWX 302331 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO A MAJORITY OF THE
EXISTING TAFS FOR WIND DIRECTION...SPEED...AND CLOUD COVER. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WAS APPLIED TO THE DRT TAF...AS KDFX
RADAR SHOWS A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE CITY FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THUS...INSERTED A QUICK TEMPO FOR EXPECTED HIGHER WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OVERALL...VFR RIGHT NOW
WILL YIELD TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW DECK OF
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. VFR WILL
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND DAYTIME HEATING. MVFR MAY
TRY TO SHOW ITS HAND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -
&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TOMASELLI





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 302021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS. AS WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHEAR AXIS LINGERS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH ACTIVITY AGAIN DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST MONDAY DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST SLIGHTLY TUESDAY ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO BRING SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS A LARGER PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS ENDING POPS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  96  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  96  75  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  98  77  99  78 /  10  -   10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  76  98  76 /  10  20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  95  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  78  98  78 /  10  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  97  77  99  78 /  10  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 301744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ITS TOO EARLY AND POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE ATT/SSF/SAT TAF SITES. IF
RADAR GETS ACTIVE AND CAN PINPOINT SOME TIMING AND LOCATIONS...MAY
BE ABLE TO GET A QUICK AMENDMENT OUT TO GET SOME HEADSUP IF A
STORM IMPACTS A PARTICULAR SITE. THIS SMALL THREAT WILL RUN FROM
ABOUT 3 PM THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN. LATE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND
WILL THEN WAIT FOR MORE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 SITES OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH THE TREND WE SAW LAST NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FORMATION ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED FAIRLY PATCHY.
SIMULATED WRF CLOUD COVER SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION
OF MVFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME BRIEF IFR AS WELL. LIKE TODAY
WILL SEE A SUNDAY LATE MORNING BURNOFF OF THE STRATUS...GOING TO
CU IN THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WONT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS
WE GET STRONGER SPEEDS BECAUSE OF STORM OUTFLOWS. S AND SE
DIRECTIONS MAINLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ALONG I-35
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TEMPO TSRA GROUPS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z
FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR TO BORDERLINE
IFR CIGS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND 17Z ALONG I-35. A LIGHT WIND
FIELD IS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
OCCUR. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND TREND MORE SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING TWO CYCLONIC AREAS NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST. THE ONE LOCATED OVER THE LA/TX COAST WILL PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVES EASTWARD. THE OTHER CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EARLY
IN THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
LINGER AROUND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  95  77  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  73  95  75  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  96  75  98 /  10  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  94  75  96 /  20  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  77  98  77  99 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  94  77  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  71  96  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  75  95  76  96 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  96  78  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  97  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 301744
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ITS TOO EARLY AND POPS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION AT THE ATT/SSF/SAT TAF SITES. IF
RADAR GETS ACTIVE AND CAN PINPOINT SOME TIMING AND LOCATIONS...MAY
BE ABLE TO GET A QUICK AMENDMENT OUT TO GET SOME HEADSUP IF A
STORM IMPACTS A PARTICULAR SITE. THIS SMALL THREAT WILL RUN FROM
ABOUT 3 PM THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN. LATE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND
WILL THEN WAIT FOR MORE POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE I-35 SITES OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH THE TREND WE SAW LAST NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FORMATION ALTHOUGH IT REMAINED FAIRLY PATCHY.
SIMULATED WRF CLOUD COVER SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION
OF MVFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME BRIEF IFR AS WELL. LIKE TODAY
WILL SEE A SUNDAY LATE MORNING BURNOFF OF THE STRATUS...GOING TO
CU IN THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WONT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE UNLESS
WE GET STRONGER SPEEDS BECAUSE OF STORM OUTFLOWS. S AND SE
DIRECTIONS MAINLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ALONG I-35
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TEMPO TSRA GROUPS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z
FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR TO BORDERLINE
IFR CIGS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND 17Z ALONG I-35. A LIGHT WIND
FIELD IS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
OCCUR. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND TREND MORE SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING TWO CYCLONIC AREAS NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST. THE ONE LOCATED OVER THE LA/TX COAST WILL PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVES EASTWARD. THE OTHER CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EARLY
IN THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
LINGER AROUND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  95  77  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  73  95  75  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  96  75  98 /  10  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  94  75  96 /  20  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  77  98  77  99 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  94  77  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  71  96  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  75  95  76  96 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  96  78  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  97  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 301141
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ALONG I-35
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TEMPO TSRA GROUPS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z
FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR TO BORDERLINE
IFR CIGS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND 17Z ALONG I-35. A LIGHT WIND
FIELD IS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
OCCUR. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND TREND MORE SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING TWO CYCLONIC AREAS NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST. THE ONE LOCATED OVER THE LA/TX COAST WILL PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVES EASTWARD. THE OTHER CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EARLY
IN THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
LINGER AROUND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  95  77  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  73  95  75  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  96  75  98 /  10  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  94  75  96 /  20  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  77  98  77  99 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  94  77  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  71  96  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  75  95  76  96 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  96  78  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  97  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17








000
FXUS64 KEWX 301141
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 12Z TAFS/
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ALONG I-35
THIS AFTERNOON...SO TEMPO TSRA GROUPS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE 12Z
FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR TO BORDERLINE
IFR CIGS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND 17Z ALONG I-35. A LIGHT WIND
FIELD IS EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
OCCUR. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND TREND MORE SOUTHERLY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING TWO CYCLONIC AREAS NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST. THE ONE LOCATED OVER THE LA/TX COAST WILL PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOVES EASTWARD. THE OTHER CYCLONIC FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EARLY
IN THE EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
LINGER AROUND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  95  77  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  73  95  75  98 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73  96  75  98 /  10  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  73  94  75  96 /  20  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  77  98  77  99 /  10  -   10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  94  77  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  71  96  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        97  74  95  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  75  95  76  96 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  96  78  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           98  75  97  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







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