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000
FXUS64 KEWX 260905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SURGED BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DRYLINE AND TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. CAPES OF 1000 TO 3000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND HAVE REMOVED
MENTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA. A COOL SURFACE HIGH BRINGS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAYS BEYOND THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  67  85  59  71 /  20  50  30  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  66  83  58  72 /  20  50  30  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  67  85  59  74 /  20  50  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  56  70 /  30  50  30  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  87  60  77 /  10  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  83  57  69 /  30  50  30  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  85  59  75 /  20  40  20  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  67  84  60  73 /  20  50  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  82  62  73 /  20  40  50  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  61  74 /  20  40  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  69  85  62  75 /  20  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 260905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A HUMID AIRMASS HAS SURGED BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING ON A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN UPWARD
MOTION IS MAXIMIZED BY THE DRYLINE AND TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. CAPES OF 1000 TO 3000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT CLEARS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING LEADING TO
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING LESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND HAVE REMOVED
MENTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO OUR AREA. A COOL SURFACE HIGH BRINGS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE DAYS BEYOND THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  67  85  59  71 /  20  50  30  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  66  83  58  72 /  20  50  30  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  67  85  59  74 /  20  50  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  56  70 /  30  50  30  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  87  60  77 /  10  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  83  57  69 /  30  50  30  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  85  59  75 /  20  40  20  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  67  84  60  73 /  20  50  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  82  62  73 /  20  40  50  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  61  74 /  20  40  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  69  85  62  75 /  20  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN VERY RAPID THIS EVENING AND IFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED INTO SAN ANTONIO. CIGS SHOULD DROP AT AUS BY AROUND 09Z.
THINKING IT WILL STAY MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL GO TO
IFR. LOOKING FOR VIS TO DROP TO 3SM AT AUS...SSF...AND SAT WITHIN
A FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS WILL NOT GET TO DRT UNTIL AROUND 11Z. ALL
SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CIGS IN SAN ANTONIO
AN AUSTIN WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA AT THE 30 HOUR AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  67  84  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  83  59  72 /  30  30  40  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  84  61  74 /  30  30  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  57  70 /  40  40  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  88  61  77 /  -   20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  65  83  58  71 /  30  40  40  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  86  60  75 /  20  30  30  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  67  83  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  70  82  63  73 /  30  30  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  62  74 /  30  30  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  69  85  62  75 /  30  30  40  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN VERY RAPID THIS EVENING AND IFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED INTO SAN ANTONIO. CIGS SHOULD DROP AT AUS BY AROUND 09Z.
THINKING IT WILL STAY MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL GO TO
IFR. LOOKING FOR VIS TO DROP TO 3SM AT AUS...SSF...AND SAT WITHIN
A FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS WILL NOT GET TO DRT UNTIL AROUND 11Z. ALL
SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CIGS IN SAN ANTONIO
AN AUSTIN WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA AT THE 30 HOUR AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  67  84  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  83  59  72 /  30  30  40  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  84  61  74 /  30  30  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  57  70 /  40  40  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  88  61  77 /  -   20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  65  83  58  71 /  30  40  40  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  86  60  75 /  20  30  30  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  67  83  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  70  82  63  73 /  30  30  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  62  74 /  30  30  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  69  85  62  75 /  30  30  40  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 260602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN VERY RAPID THIS EVENING AND IFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED INTO SAN ANTONIO. CIGS SHOULD DROP AT AUS BY AROUND 09Z.
THINKING IT WILL STAY MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL GO TO
IFR. LOOKING FOR VIS TO DROP TO 3SM AT AUS...SSF...AND SAT WITHIN
A FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS WILL NOT GET TO DRT UNTIL AROUND 11Z. ALL
SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CIGS IN SAN ANTONIO
AN AUSTIN WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA AT THE 30 HOUR AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  67  84  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  83  59  72 /  30  30  40  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  84  61  74 /  30  30  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  57  70 /  40  40  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  88  61  77 /  -   20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  65  83  58  71 /  30  40  40  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  86  60  75 /  20  30  30  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  67  83  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  70  82  63  73 /  30  30  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  62  74 /  30  30  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  69  85  62  75 /  30  30  40  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KEWX 260602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN VERY RAPID THIS EVENING AND IFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED INTO SAN ANTONIO. CIGS SHOULD DROP AT AUS BY AROUND 09Z.
THINKING IT WILL STAY MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT WILL GO TO
IFR. LOOKING FOR VIS TO DROP TO 3SM AT AUS...SSF...AND SAT WITHIN
A FEW HOURS. LOW CIGS WILL NOT GET TO DRT UNTIL AROUND 11Z. ALL
SITES SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. CIGS IN SAN ANTONIO
AN AUSTIN WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA AT THE 30 HOUR AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  67  84  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  66  83  59  72 /  30  30  40  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  67  84  61  74 /  30  30  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  62  83  57  70 /  40  40  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  88  61  77 /  -   20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  65  83  58  71 /  30  40  40  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  86  60  75 /  20  30  30  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  67  83  60  73 /  30  30  40  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  70  82  63  73 /  30  30  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  68  86  62  74 /  30  30  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  69  85  62  75 /  30  30  40  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 252350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO MID SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE AIRMASS
STAYS SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BY 16Z-18Z TIME
FRAME FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL VFR FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUNDAY AS THE DRY-LINE PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRY-LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 252350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO MID SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE AIRMASS
STAYS SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BY 16Z-18Z TIME
FRAME FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL VFR FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUNDAY AS THE DRY-LINE PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRY-LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 252350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO MID SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE AIRMASS
STAYS SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BY 16Z-18Z TIME
FRAME FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL VFR FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUNDAY AS THE DRY-LINE PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRY-LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 252350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO MID SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE AIRMASS
STAYS SATURATED. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BY 16Z-18Z TIME
FRAME FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL VFR FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUNDAY AS THE DRY-LINE PUSHES TO THE EAST.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRY-LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 252029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 252029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED EAST OF I-35. MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 30S AT ROCKSPRINGS...COMPARED WITH MID 60S AT LA GRANGE.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE ACROSS DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
GIVEN RECENT RAINS ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION...WE HAVE
ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ON SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD AND
SHARPEN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BANDERA TO
BASTROP LINE AND WE HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE DRYLINE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE AS AN ADVANCING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO KARNES CITY
LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71...A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER GIVEN A CONTINUED DRY...NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  67  84  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  66  83  59 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  67  84  61 /  -   30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  83  57 /  -   40  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  88  61 /  -   -   20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  83  58 /  -   30  40  40  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  88  65  86  60 /  -   20  30  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  85  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  70  82  63 /  -   30  30  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  68  86  62 /  -   30  30  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  69  85  62 /  -   30  30  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 251734
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE STORMS THIS MORING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE BOTH AT THE GROUND
LEVEL...AT THE SURFACE...AND A BIT ALOFT WE EXPECT BOTH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. IFR CONDITIONS...BOTH CIGS AND
VISBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH MVFR RETURNING TO ALL SITES
AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 15Z AND VFR BY 15Z AT DRT AND 18Z TO
20Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z
CLOSE TO THE I-35 TERMINALS. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THIS TREND...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251734
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE STORMS THIS MORING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE BOTH AT THE GROUND
LEVEL...AT THE SURFACE...AND A BIT ALOFT WE EXPECT BOTH FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. IFR CONDITIONS...BOTH CIGS AND
VISBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH MVFR RETURNING TO ALL SITES
AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 15Z AND VFR BY 15Z AT DRT AND 18Z TO
20Z AT THE I-35 TERMINALS.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z
CLOSE TO THE I-35 TERMINALS. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THIS TREND...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 251449 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THIS TREND...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 251449 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THIS TREND...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251200
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 251200
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251200
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 251200
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT
NO REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. HAVE REMOVED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
AN AUSTIN TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO BANDERA TO CRYSTAL CITY FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  10  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  10  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251144
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 251144
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SAN ANTONIO AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS AND REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 2SM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION IN AUSTIN OR DEL RIO. AUS SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. MVFR VIS AT DRT WILL LAST UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING THEN THEY WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM DEL RIO
EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HI-RES MODELS MOVE THIS
CLUSTER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MLCAPES OF 2600 J/KG AND VERY
LARGE SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC
HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 15Z OR 10 AM CDT. PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES INDICATES SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS ARE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE...A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE INCREASES
LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHEAR AND HIGH CAPES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS THE DRYLINE THEN COLD FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. HIGH CAPES AND STRONG SHEAR
INDICATE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROADENS WITH SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  66  87  66  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  67  86  65  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  87  67  84 /  20  10  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  63  86  62  82 /  -   10  30  40  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  65  90  62  87 /  -   10  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  66  86  64  83 /  10  10  30  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  66  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  67  86  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  69  86  69  82 /  30  10  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  88  67  85 /  20  10  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  68  88  68  84 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250716
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SABINAL
TO DEL RIO GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS THAT SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATED. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DUE HIGH CAPES
AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREAS
FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS WELL. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN THERE WITH LITTLE IMPACT
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  66  84  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  86  65  83  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  87  67  84  60 /  10  30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  62  82  56 /  10  30  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  87  59 /  10  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  86  64  83  58 /  10  30  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  88  64  85  59 /  10  20  30  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  60 /  10  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  86  69  82  61 /  10  20  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  88  67  85  60 /  10  20  30  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  88  68  84  61 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250716
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SABINAL
TO DEL RIO GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS THAT SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATED. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DUE HIGH CAPES
AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREAS
FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS WELL. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN THERE WITH LITTLE IMPACT
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  66  84  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  86  65  83  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  87  67  84  60 /  10  30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  62  82  56 /  10  30  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  87  59 /  10  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  86  64  83  58 /  10  30  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  88  64  85  59 /  10  20  30  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  60 /  10  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  86  69  82  61 /  10  20  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  88  67  85  60 /  10  20  30  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  88  68  84  61 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250716
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SABINAL
TO DEL RIO GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS THAT SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATED. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DUE HIGH CAPES
AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREAS
FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS WELL. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN THERE WITH LITTLE IMPACT
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  66  84  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  86  65  83  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  87  67  84  60 /  10  30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  62  82  56 /  10  30  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  87  59 /  10  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  86  64  83  58 /  10  30  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  88  64  85  59 /  10  20  30  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  60 /  10  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  86  69  82  61 /  10  20  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  88  67  85  60 /  10  20  30  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  88  68  84  61 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250716
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SABINAL
TO DEL RIO GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS THAT SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS INDICATED. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DUE HIGH CAPES
AND COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE AREAS
FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND INTO THE ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AS WELL. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN THERE WITH LITTLE IMPACT
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  87  66  84  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  86  65  83  59 /  10  30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  87  67  84  60 /  10  30  30  40  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  62  82  56 /  10  30  40  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  62  87  59 /  10  10  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  86  64  83  58 /  10  30  30  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  88  64  85  59 /  10  20  30  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  60 /  10  30  30  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  86  69  82  61 /  10  20  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  88  67  85  60 /  10  20  30  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  88  68  84  61 /  10  20  30  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  66  86  66  83 /  -    0  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  63  85  65  83 /  10  -   30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  65  86  67  83 /  10  -   30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  61  85  62  82 /   0   0  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  64  90  63  87 /   0  -   -   20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  63  85  65  82 /   0   0  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  88  64  85 /  -   -   20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  64  85  66  83 /  10  -   30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  67  85  69  81 /  20  -   30  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  87  67  85 /  10  -   30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  87  67  84 /  10  -   30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250544
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THIS COULD BE A TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED AT
DRT AND CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON FOR THEM TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THEY
RETURN TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH. THE SAN
ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE IFR OVERNIGHT WHILE AUS WILL BE MVFR.
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY ABOUT 14Z. HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CIGS BACK TO
THE 30 HOUR TAFS AT 09Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  66  86  66  83 /  -    0  30  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  63  85  65  83 /  10  -   30  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  65  86  67  83 /  10  -   30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  61  85  62  82 /   0   0  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  64  90  63  87 /   0  -   -   20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  63  85  65  82 /   0   0  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  65  88  64  85 /  -   -   20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  64  85  66  83 /  10  -   30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  67  85  69  81 /  20  -   30  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  67  87  67  85 /  10  -   30  30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  66  87  67  84 /  10  -   30  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250522
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  86  66  83  60 /   0  30  30  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  65  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  86  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  85  62  82  57 /   0  30  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  90  63  87  60 /  -   -   20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  82  59 /   0  30  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  64  85  60 /  -   20  30  20   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  66  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   67  85  69  81  62 /  -   30  20  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  87  67  85  61 /  -   30  30  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  67  84  62 /  -   30  30  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250522
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  86  66  83  60 /   0  30  30  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  65  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  86  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  85  62  82  57 /   0  30  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  90  63  87  60 /  -   -   20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  82  59 /   0  30  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  64  85  60 /  -   20  30  20   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  66  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   67  85  69  81  62 /  -   30  20  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  87  67  85  61 /  -   30  30  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  67  84  62 /  -   30  30  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250522
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
DUE TO INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION AND STABILITY. ALSO...HAVE
TRIMMED ATASCOSA...BEXAR...FRIO AND MEDINA FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND WILL MAINTAIN IT
THERE. HOWEVER...MAY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEFORE THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
PERSIST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE ESCARPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL DISREGARD AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS DECREASING. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  86  66  83  60 /   0  30  30  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  85  65  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  86  67  83  60 /  -   30  30  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  85  62  82  57 /   0  30  30  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  90  63  87  60 /  -   -   20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  85  65  82  59 /   0  30  30  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  64  85  60 /  -   20  30  20   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  66  83  60 /  -   30  30  40  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   67  85  69  81  62 /  -   30  20  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  87  67  85  61 /  -   30  30  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  87  67  84  62 /  -   30  30  30  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250304 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGINGWIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  10   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  80  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250304 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGINGWIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  10   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  80  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 250304 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGINGWIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  10   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  80  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 250304 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA TO REMOVE
COUNTIES WEST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE ADDED SOME
KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...AND GONZALES COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM.
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE ENHANCED WHERE CURRENT AND
PROJECTED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REVISITED IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW ON FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE BRISK H5-H3 SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION HAS LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOME COUNTIES
EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN NEAR 3000 J/KG BUT IT APPEAR PER
MESO ANALYSIS THAT SOME LOW-LVL STABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. DESPITE THIS...AMPLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION /70-90 KT
H5-H3 WIND FLOW/ LEADING TO NEAR 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ABLE
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCE A HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE
DAMAGINGWIND RISK. THE TORNADO RISK WHILE LIMITED BEFORE WILL
EVEN FURTHER REDUCE AS STORMS ENTER NON-FAVORABLE SRH FIELDS.
STORMS THAT WERE BACK WEST IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AROUND
8PM HAD ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2. IT APPEARS A MINI
SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FLANKING BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SUPERCELL THAT WAS ABLE TO INGEST ENHANCED
LOW-LVL HELICITY FOR THE FUNNEL AND LIKELY BRIEF TORNADO THAT
OCCURRED. AGAIN...THIS RISK IS DIMINISHED QUICKLY GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL...BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO TRY AND MERGE THESE CELLS ACROSS ATASCOSA
COUNTY INTO A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PRAIRIE COUNTIES...WHILE
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...IT REDUCES THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. SOME SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT UPWIND
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IS THIS SCENARIO. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CUT BACK OR
CANCELLED IN ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 3AM...IF NOT SOONER...AND THE
AREA BE CLEAR OF ALL HAZARDS BY THAT TIME.

ALLEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  10   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  80  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 242356 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 242356 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 242356 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01




000
FXUS64 KEWX 242356 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ONGOING CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KDRT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND APPROACH KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 01Z AND 02Z
OVER KAUS. HIRES SOLUTIONS CLEAR THE KAUS AREA AFTER 04Z BUT KEEP
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SAN ANTONIO THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
STORMS PERIOD...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT IFR CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. AFTER THE STORMS PUSH AWAY OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES AFTER 13Z WHILE KDRT
REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...DE WITT...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...
MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...
LEE...MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241956
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...

STARTING TO SEE SOME RECOVERY AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS. SOME
POCKETS OF CLEARING ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND ALSO SEEING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
MEXICO. ANALYSES INDICATES LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...STILL SOME CIN TO OVERCOME JUST EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STORMS TO CROSS INTO MAVERICK...KINNEY AND/OR VAL VERDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASING WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE CWA. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...ARW/NMM/HRRR INDICATING STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SJT CWA CLIPPING FAR NORTHERN AREAS UP NEAR
BURNET.

SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE RATES/CAPE
WARRANT THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT THE BIGGER
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10/US 90. VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL POOLED IN THIS REGION...
AND MODEL CONSENSUS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF WITH ISOLATED POCKETS
OF 3 TO 4 OCCURRING BETWEEN THE CRP/EWX CWA BOUNDARY AND I-10. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA...
COINCIDING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAY. THE WATCH GOES AS FAR NORTH AS BASTROP AND LEE
COUNTIES (NOT INCLUDING TRAVIS OR WILLIAMSON)...DESPITE LESSER
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THIS AREA. THIS IS OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION AS SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THESE AREA...WITH
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUING IN BASTROP COUNTY.

PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. A POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RUNYEN

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA AS WEAK FORCING INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOLED OVER
THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
EAST. LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  86  66 /  50  -    0  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  88  63  85  65 /  60  10  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  86  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  86  61  85  62 /  40   0   0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  88  64  90  63 /  20   0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  85  65 /  50   0   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  88  65  88  64 /  70  -   -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  64  85  66 /  70  10  -   30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  85  69 /  70  20  -   30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  66  87  67 /  80  10  -   30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...
DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...KARNES...LAVACA...
LEE...MEDINA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241800 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z ACROSS THE I-35 SITES
BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH COUPLE OF
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRPORT FROM 21Z TO 23Z. THE STORMS
EXPECTED OUT WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFFECTING THE I-35 SITES FROM 01Z TO
04Z SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
AT THIS TIME...HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FOR THE STRONGER
STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AND
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT STRONG WINDS FROM TAF SITES. ONCE THE STORMS
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 15Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REMAINING NORTHEAST CWA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND CONDITIONS HAVE
STABILIZED BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY AND
DE-STABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA...APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  87  66 /  40  10  -   30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  88  64  86  65 /  50  20  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  89  65  87  66 /  50  20  10  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  87  62  86  61 /  30  -    0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  89  65  90  63 /  20  10  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  86  65 /  30  10   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  88  64  88  64 /  60  20  -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  86  66 /  50  20  10  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  67  85  69 /  50  20  10  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  66 /  60  20  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  67  88  67 /  60  20  10  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241800 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z ACROSS THE I-35 SITES
BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH COUPLE OF
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRPORT FROM 21Z TO 23Z. THE STORMS
EXPECTED OUT WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFFECTING THE I-35 SITES FROM 01Z TO
04Z SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
AT THIS TIME...HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FOR THE STRONGER
STORMS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AND
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT STRONG WINDS FROM TAF SITES. ONCE THE STORMS
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 15Z. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REMAINING NORTHEAST CWA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND CONDITIONS HAVE
STABILIZED BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY AND
DE-STABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA...APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  89  66  87  66 /  40  10  -   30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  88  64  86  65 /  50  20  -   30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  89  65  87  66 /  50  20  10  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  87  62  86  61 /  30  -    0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  89  65  90  63 /  20  10  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  63  86  65 /  30  10   0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  88  64  88  64 /  60  20  -   20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  86  66 /  50  20  10  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  86  67  85  69 /  50  20  10  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  89  67  87  66 /  60  20  -   30  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  88  67  88  67 /  60  20  10  30  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241334 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
834 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REMAINING NORTHEAST CWA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND CONDITIONS HAVE
STABILIZED BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY AND
DE-STABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA...APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  90  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  90  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  20  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  90  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  90  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  30  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  40  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  90  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  20  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  20  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241334 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
834 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REMAINING NORTHEAST CWA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND CONDITIONS HAVE
STABILIZED BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY AND
DE-STABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA...APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  90  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  90  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  20  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  90  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  90  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  30  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  40  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  90  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  20  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  20  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241334 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
834 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REMAINING NORTHEAST CWA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND CONDITIONS HAVE
STABILIZED BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS. NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY AND
DE-STABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA...APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HI RES MODELS. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  90  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  90  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  20  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  90  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  90  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  30  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  40  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  90  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  20  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  20  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241156
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241156
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA N OF KECU TO KPEZ TO KT20 TO K3T5 LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE AND OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE TSRA PREVAILING NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. NO MENTION AT KDRT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL
PASS JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CHANCES REMAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND THEN LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. HAVE PROB30S FOR KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z-25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR SKIES MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME VFR SATURDAY MORNING. EXCEPT...REMAIN VFR AT KDRT.
S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOME W TO NW
TONIGHT OUT WEST SPREADING TO EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS A
DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29/04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM UTAH TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MEXICO IS
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WAS LYING ACROSS EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEAUMONT TO
STEPHENVILLE. MOST OF OUR CWA REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THERE IS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS PERIOD CAUSING SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL TURN THE SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST AND BRING IN DRIER AIR. WE WILL SEE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE AGAIN IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK WITH A
SLIVER OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL COME TO AN
END. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING MOIST AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEST AND
IN RESPONSE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EAST TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN AND THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTH. AN
UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
REACHING ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS
POINT. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OUR FORECAST IS DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29/04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240812
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98. AN AREA OF SEVER
THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO MAVERICK AND
DIMMIT COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SHRA/TSRA. ONLY THE HRRR
IS MOSTLY VERIFYING AT 05Z IN SHOWING SHRA/TSRA FROM RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO AT KDRT TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AS SHRA/TSRA
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS OR PREVAILING AT THOSE SITES. A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z TO 25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...
SHRA/TSRA MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS AT TIMES. CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TSRA WILL CAUSE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WITH
VRBL DIRECTION. DRYLINE MAY INTRUDE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
TO CAUSE W TO NW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THOUGH WILL STAY NW OF TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240812
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98. AN AREA OF SEVER
THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO MAVERICK AND
DIMMIT COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SHRA/TSRA. ONLY THE HRRR
IS MOSTLY VERIFYING AT 05Z IN SHOWING SHRA/TSRA FROM RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO AT KDRT TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AS SHRA/TSRA
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS OR PREVAILING AT THOSE SITES. A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z TO 25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...
SHRA/TSRA MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS AT TIMES. CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TSRA WILL CAUSE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WITH
VRBL DIRECTION. DRYLINE MAY INTRUDE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
TO CAUSE W TO NW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THOUGH WILL STAY NW OF TAF
SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  67  89  66  87 /  50  40  10  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  67  88  64  86 /  50  50  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  67  89  65  87 /  50  50  20  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  64  87  62  86 /  60  30  -    0  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  63  89  65  90 /  40  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  65  88  63  86 /  50  30  10   0  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  88  64  88 /  50  60  20  -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  67  87  65  86 /  50  50  20  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  86  67  85 /  50  50  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  89  67  87 /  50  60  20  -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  69  88  67  88 /  50  60  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240552
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SHRA/TSRA. ONLY THE HRRR
IS MOSTLY VERIFYING AT 05Z IN SHOWING SHRA/TSRA FROM RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO AT KDRT TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AS SHRA/TSRA
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS OR PREVAILING AT THOSE SITES. A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z TO 25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...
SHRA/TSRA MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS AT TIMES. CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TSRA WILL CAUSE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WITH
VRBL DIRECTION. DRYLINE MAY INTRUDE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
TO CAUSE W TO NW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THOUGH WILL STAY NW OF TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  89  65  89  66 /  40  10  -   30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  88  63  88  65 /  40  20  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  90  64  88  67 /  50  20  -   30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  89  62  87  63 /  30  -    0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  64  91  63 /  30  -   -    0  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  89  63  87  65 /  30  -    0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  89  64  90  65 /  50  10  -   20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  88  64  87  66 /  50  20  -   30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  87  68 /  40  30  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  90  67  89  67 /  50  10  -   30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  89  65  89  67 /  50  20  -   30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240552
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SHRA/TSRA. ONLY THE HRRR
IS MOSTLY VERIFYING AT 05Z IN SHOWING SHRA/TSRA FROM RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO AT KDRT TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AS SHRA/TSRA
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS OR PREVAILING AT THOSE SITES. A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z TO 25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...
SHRA/TSRA MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS AT TIMES. CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TSRA WILL CAUSE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WITH
VRBL DIRECTION. DRYLINE MAY INTRUDE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
TO CAUSE W TO NW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THOUGH WILL STAY NW OF TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  89  65  89  66 /  40  10  -   30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  88  63  88  65 /  40  20  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  90  64  88  67 /  50  20  -   30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  89  62  87  63 /  30  -    0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  64  91  63 /  30  -   -    0  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  89  63  87  65 /  30  -    0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  89  64  90  65 /  50  10  -   20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  88  64  87  66 /  50  20  -   30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  87  68 /  40  30  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  90  67  89  67 /  50  10  -   30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  89  65  89  67 /  50  20  -   30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240552
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SHRA/TSRA. ONLY THE HRRR
IS MOSTLY VERIFYING AT 05Z IN SHOWING SHRA/TSRA FROM RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO AT KDRT TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH OVERNIGHT AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AS SHRA/TSRA
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS OR PREVAILING AT THOSE SITES. A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF
FOR 24/22Z TO 25/02Z. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...
SHRA/TSRA MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS AT TIMES. CIGS RISE TO MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TSRA WILL CAUSE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WITH
VRBL DIRECTION. DRYLINE MAY INTRUDE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
TO CAUSE W TO NW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THOUGH WILL STAY NW OF TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  89  65  89  66 /  40  10  -   30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  88  63  88  65 /  40  20  -   30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  90  64  88  67 /  50  20  -   30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  89  62  87  63 /  30  -    0  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           65  90  64  91  63 /  30  -   -    0  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  89  63  87  65 /  30  -    0  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  89  64  90  65 /  50  10  -   20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  88  64  87  66 /  50  20  -   30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  67  87  68 /  40  30  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  90  67  89  67 /  50  10  -   30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  89  65  89  67 /  50  20  -   30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240047
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240047
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240047
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240047
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
747 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST CANCELLED DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A
TREMENDOUSLY DIFFICULT TIME WITH CONVECTION...GENERALLY CREATING
TOO MUCH AND TOO SOON. THAT SAID...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER CHIHUAHUA. COUPLED WITH
THE DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...WE STILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD ONTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST.
HOWEVER...THE SCALE AND SCOPE ARE UNCERTAIN. WILL SEND OUT AN
UPDATE BY 8 PM...GENERALLY LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
06Z...AND RE-TRENDING ALL FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 240003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST IS IDENTIFYING THE CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM...ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KDRT. AFTER 07Z...PUT TEMPO
TSRA AT KDRT...BUT THIS IS SPECULATIVE AND BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WHICH ARE HAVING A 50-50 SUCCESS RATE
WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE MAIN
ACTIVITY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS TO BE FROM 21Z FRIDAY TO 05Z
SATURDAY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VRB WIND GUSTS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. IN THE MEANTIME...IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY AT THE I-35 SITES FROM 09-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
IF THIS CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY
POPULATED AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO
DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  70  86  68  89 /  30  40  60  40  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  85  68  88 /  30  40  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  86  68  90 /  20  40  40  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  67  83  64  89 /  30  40  70  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  65  90 /  20  60  40  30  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  69  85  66  89 /  30  40  60  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  85  66  89 /  20  60  40  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  85  68  88 /  20  40  40  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  85  70  87 /  20  30  40  40  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  86  68  90 /  20  50  40  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  86  69  89 /  20  50  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 232210
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT AYTPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS DEVELOPED
APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS
CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY POPULATED
AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO DEVELOP...WHICH
WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  86  68  89  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  85  68  88  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  86  68  90  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  83  64  89  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  65  90  64 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  85  66  89  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  85  66  89  64 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  85  68  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  85  70  87  67 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  86  68  90  67 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  86  69  89  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 232210
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
510 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 WAS JUST ISSUED. THIS IS A VERY SMALL
WATCH AND SOMEWHAT AYTPICAL...BUT THE ONE STORM THAT HAS DEVELOPED
APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS
CONTINUES...THE STORM WILL PASS OVER FAIRLY HIGHLY POPULATED
AREAS...AND THE OUTFLOW MAY CAUSE OTHER STORMS TO DEVELOP...WHICH
WOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  86  68  89  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  85  68  88  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  86  68  90  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  83  64  89  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  65  90  64 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  85  66  89  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  85  66  89  64 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  85  68  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  85  70  87  67 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  86  68  90  67 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  86  69  89  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 232025
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE HAS MIXED EAST OF DRYDEN TO OZONA AS OF 23/19Z. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 80S. SOME CU IS ALSO VISIBLE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AS
BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GIVEN SFC-6KM SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 24KT ON THE KDRT 12Z SOUNDING. THE OTHER AREA FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH IT/S
TOUGH TO FIND A SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN THE SURFACE WINDS AS OF 19Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. PROVIDED CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONCERNS SHOULD
THEN TRANSITION FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35 THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...BUT MUCH WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LATEST DAY2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GOOD
CHANCE FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY REMAINING NORTH
OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS AID IN THE WARMING PROCESS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A
SECOND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  86  68  89  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  85  68  88  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  86  68  90  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  83  64  89  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  65  90  64 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  85  66  89  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  85  66  89  64 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  85  68  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  85  70  87  67 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  86  68  90  67 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  86  69  89  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 231823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC MVFR STRATOCU LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 AT 18Z. STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING.
SHOULD SEE DECK ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 RISING TO AROUND 3-4K FEET
WITH SOME SCT BREAKS AROUND AND AFTER 21Z.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF TSTMS INTO ALL THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SHRAS AND TSTMS THIS
EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE PROGRESSING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES STILL IN
QUESTION THOUGH...AS WELL AS HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION BECOMES.

CURRENT THINKING AND TAFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AT DRT
BY 02Z AND SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
SHRAS/TSTMS MOVING EAST OF DRT AFTER 06Z AND EAST OF SAT/SSF/AUS
12Z-15Z. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS ALSO RE-DEVELOPING LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHRAS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE AUS/SAT
30 HR TAFS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BURN OFF ANY
LINGERING FOG. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WE DID OPT TO
LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT GIVEN CLEARING TRENDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  67  88  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  66  87  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  83  63  87  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  64  89  63 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  65  88  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  84  66  88  63 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  84  67  86  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  84  69  86  66 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  68  88  66 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  85  69  88  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 231823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC MVFR STRATOCU LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 AT 18Z. STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING.
SHOULD SEE DECK ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 RISING TO AROUND 3-4K FEET
WITH SOME SCT BREAKS AROUND AND AFTER 21Z.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF TSTMS INTO ALL THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SHRAS AND TSTMS THIS
EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE PROGRESSING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES STILL IN
QUESTION THOUGH...AS WELL AS HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION BECOMES.

CURRENT THINKING AND TAFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AT DRT
BY 02Z AND SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
SHRAS/TSTMS MOVING EAST OF DRT AFTER 06Z AND EAST OF SAT/SSF/AUS
12Z-15Z. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS ALSO RE-DEVELOPING LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHRAS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE AUS/SAT
30 HR TAFS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BURN OFF ANY
LINGERING FOG. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WE DID OPT TO
LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT GIVEN CLEARING TRENDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  67  88  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  66  87  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  83  63  87  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  64  89  63 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  65  88  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  84  66  88  63 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  84  67  86  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  84  69  86  66 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  68  88  66 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  85  69  88  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC MVFR STRATOCU LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 AT 18Z. STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING.
SHOULD SEE DECK ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 RISING TO AROUND 3-4K FEET
WITH SOME SCT BREAKS AROUND AND AFTER 21Z.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF TSTMS INTO ALL THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SHRAS AND TSTMS THIS
EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE PROGRESSING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES STILL IN
QUESTION THOUGH...AS WELL AS HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION BECOMES.

CURRENT THINKING AND TAFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AT DRT
BY 02Z AND SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
SHRAS/TSTMS MOVING EAST OF DRT AFTER 06Z AND EAST OF SAT/SSF/AUS
12Z-15Z. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS ALSO RE-DEVELOPING LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHRAS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE AUS/SAT
30 HR TAFS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BURN OFF ANY
LINGERING FOG. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WE DID OPT TO
LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT GIVEN CLEARING TRENDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  67  88  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  66  87  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  83  63  87  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  64  89  63 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  65  88  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  84  66  88  63 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  84  67  86  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  84  69  86  66 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  68  88  66 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  85  69  88  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231823
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC MVFR STRATOCU LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 AT 18Z. STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING.
SHOULD SEE DECK ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 RISING TO AROUND 3-4K FEET
WITH SOME SCT BREAKS AROUND AND AFTER 21Z.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF TSTMS INTO ALL THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SHRAS AND TSTMS THIS
EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE PROGRESSING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES STILL IN
QUESTION THOUGH...AS WELL AS HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION BECOMES.

CURRENT THINKING AND TAFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AT DRT
BY 02Z AND SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
SHRAS/TSTMS MOVING EAST OF DRT AFTER 06Z AND EAST OF SAT/SSF/AUS
12Z-15Z. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS ALSO RE-DEVELOPING LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VFR AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHRAS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE AUS/SAT
30 HR TAFS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BURN OFF ANY
LINGERING FOG. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WE DID OPT TO
LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT GIVEN CLEARING TRENDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  67  88  65 /  40  60  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  66  87  63 /  40  60  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  85  67  88  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  83  63  87  62 /  40  70  30  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  87  64  89  63 /  60  40  30  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  84  65  88  63 /  40  60  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  84  66  88  63 /  60  40  50  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  84  67  86  64 /  40  40  50  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  84  69  86  66 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  85  68  88  66 /  50  40  50  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  85  69  88  65 /  50  40  50  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 231639 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BURN OFF ANY
LINGERING FOG. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WE DID OPT TO
LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT GIVEN CLEARING TRENDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
WELL DECOUPLED WINDS...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND A STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MAINLY LIFR
CATEGORIES WITH SAT HOLDING ONTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE TREND IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE BASIC MODEL GUIDANCES...
INCREASING SSW WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOWN IN VAD WIND DATA
WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MIXING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
BRING ABOUT SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SKIES BY 17 OR 18Z.
STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A BROAD PERIOD THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME AREAS OF QPF TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAS. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY
EVENING TEMPO GROUP AT DRT AND A BROAD WINDOW FOR LATE
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR SAT/SSF/AUS. A
GENERIC CIG CONDITION IN THE IFR RANGE WAS GIVEN FOR NOW...BUT
LATER UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN AREAS OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/LOW VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  84  67  88 /  30  30  60  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  84  66  87 /  30  30  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  85  67  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  68  83  63  87 /  30  40  60  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  64  89 /  20  40  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  84  65  88 /  30  40  60  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  84  66  88 /  20  50  40  50  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  50  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  84  69  86 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  85  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  85  69  88 /  20  40  50  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231639 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BURN OFF ANY
LINGERING FOG. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WE DID OPT TO
LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT GIVEN CLEARING TRENDS...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
WELL DECOUPLED WINDS...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND A STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MAINLY LIFR
CATEGORIES WITH SAT HOLDING ONTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE TREND IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE BASIC MODEL GUIDANCES...
INCREASING SSW WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOWN IN VAD WIND DATA
WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MIXING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
BRING ABOUT SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SKIES BY 17 OR 18Z.
STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A BROAD PERIOD THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME AREAS OF QPF TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAS. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY
EVENING TEMPO GROUP AT DRT AND A BROAD WINDOW FOR LATE
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR SAT/SSF/AUS. A
GENERIC CIG CONDITION IN THE IFR RANGE WAS GIVEN FOR NOW...BUT
LATER UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN AREAS OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/LOW VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  84  67  88 /  30  30  60  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  84  66  87 /  30  30  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  85  67  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  68  83  63  87 /  30  40  60  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  68  87  64  89 /  20  40  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  84  65  88 /  30  40  60  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  84  66  88 /  20  50  40  50  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  50  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  84  69  86 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  85  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  85  69  88 /  20  40  50  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 231155
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
WELL DECOUPLED WINDS...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND A STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MAINLY LIFR
CATEGORIES WITH SAT HOLDING ONTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE TREND IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE BASIC MODEL GUIDANCES...
INCREASING SSW WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOWN IN VAD WIND DATA
WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MIXING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
BRING ABOUT SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SKIES BY 17 OR 18Z.
STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A BROAD PERIOD THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME AREAS OF QPF TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAS. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY
EVENING TEMPO GROUP AT DRT AND A BROAD WINDOW FOR LATE
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR SAT/SSF/AUS. A
GENERIC CIG CONDITION IN THE IFR RANGE WAS GIVEN FOR NOW...BUT
LATER UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN AREAS OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/LOW VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  84  67  88 /  30  30  60  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  84  66  87 /  30  30  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  85  67  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  68  83  63  87 /  30  40  60  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  68  87  64  89 /  20  40  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  84  65  88 /  30  40  60  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  84  66  88 /  20  50  40  50  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  50  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  84  69  86 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  85  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  85  69  88 /  20  40  50  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231155
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
WELL DECOUPLED WINDS...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND A STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MAINLY LIFR
CATEGORIES WITH SAT HOLDING ONTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE TREND IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE BASIC MODEL GUIDANCES...
INCREASING SSW WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOWN IN VAD WIND DATA
WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MIXING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
BRING ABOUT SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SKIES BY 17 OR 18Z.
STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A BROAD PERIOD THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME AREAS OF QPF TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAS. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY
EVENING TEMPO GROUP AT DRT AND A BROAD WINDOW FOR LATE
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR SAT/SSF/AUS. A
GENERIC CIG CONDITION IN THE IFR RANGE WAS GIVEN FOR NOW...BUT
LATER UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN AREAS OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/LOW VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  84  67  88 /  30  30  60  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  84  66  87 /  30  30  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  85  67  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  68  83  63  87 /  30  40  60  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  68  87  64  89 /  20  40  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  84  65  88 /  30  40  60  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  84  66  88 /  20  50  40  50  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  50  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  84  69  86 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  85  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  85  69  88 /  20  40  50  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231155
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
WELL DECOUPLED WINDS...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND A STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MAINLY LIFR
CATEGORIES WITH SAT HOLDING ONTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE TREND IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE BASIC MODEL GUIDANCES...
INCREASING SSW WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOWN IN VAD WIND DATA
WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MIXING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
BRING ABOUT SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SKIES BY 17 OR 18Z.
STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A BROAD PERIOD THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME AREAS OF QPF TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAS. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY
EVENING TEMPO GROUP AT DRT AND A BROAD WINDOW FOR LATE
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR SAT/SSF/AUS. A
GENERIC CIG CONDITION IN THE IFR RANGE WAS GIVEN FOR NOW...BUT
LATER UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN AREAS OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/LOW VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  84  67  88 /  30  30  60  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  84  66  87 /  30  30  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  85  67  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  68  83  63  87 /  30  40  60  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  68  87  64  89 /  20  40  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  84  65  88 /  30  40  60  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  84  66  88 /  20  50  40  50  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  50  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  84  69  86 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  85  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  85  69  88 /  20  40  50  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 231155
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
WELL DECOUPLED WINDS...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND A STEADY MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN HAS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MAINLY LIFR
CATEGORIES WITH SAT HOLDING ONTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE TREND IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE BASIC MODEL GUIDANCES...
INCREASING SSW WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOWN IN VAD WIND DATA
WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MIXING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TO
BRING ABOUT SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SKIES BY 17 OR 18Z.
STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A BROAD PERIOD THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SOME AREAS OF QPF TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND AREAS. HAVE ADDED AN EARLY
EVENING TEMPO GROUP AT DRT AND A BROAD WINDOW FOR LATE
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PREVAILING CONVECTION FOR SAT/SSF/AUS. A
GENERIC CIG CONDITION IN THE IFR RANGE WAS GIVEN FOR NOW...BUT
LATER UPDATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN AREAS OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/LOW VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WERE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. THERE WAS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM PALACIOS...THE DRYLINE
EXTENDED ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...AND THERE WAS A
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO IT/S
SOUTH. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM AND MOIST.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY TODAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE
ARE AGAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. MOST LIKELY THREAT IS LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE PW OVER THE AREA TO
1.5 TO 2 INCHES. TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
EAGLE PASS TO BOERNE TO GEORGETOWN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INITIALLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL RIDE OVER AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND DROP
DOWN THROUGH THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN ALL BRING AN UPPER LOW INTO TEXAS
MONDAY...BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SIMILAR PATHS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT HAVE
DIFFERENT TIMING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD IT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  71  84  67  88 /  30  30  60  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  70  84  66  87 /  30  30  60  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  70  85  67  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  68  83  63  87 /  30  40  60  30  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  68  87  64  89 /  20  40  30  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  84  65  88 /  30  40  60  30  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  70  84  66  88 /  20  50  40  50  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  69  84  67  86 /  20  40  50  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  84  69  86 /  20  30  40  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  71  85  68  88 /  20  40  50  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  71  85  69  88 /  20  40  50  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





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