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000
FXUS64 KEWX 252023
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COOLER
SUNDAY...BUT STILL WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE WEAK FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING IS
LACKING...AND THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST...SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CMC
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY SHARPER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES...AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH. HAVE
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  88  63  87  66 /   0   0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  87  57  87  62 /   0   0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  88  60  88  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  87  61  84  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  87  61  86  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  87  61  86  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  87  56  86  61 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  89  59  87  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  86  63  86  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  86  63  86  67 /   0   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  87  62  87  66 /   0   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 251722
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.  COULD SEE A FEW
MID LEVEL CU DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS BELOW 10KT. SW/S WINDS WILL BACK TO SE
BY LATE AFTERNOON...VARIABLE TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND A REPEAT
TOMORROW WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A BACKING WIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A BIT MORE WIND TOMORROW...BUT STILL 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR SKC WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
FEW050 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AND MAINLY SLY IN DIRECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE INTACT. TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EXISTING RECORDS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PLEASE SEE THE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DATA.
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS RATHER WEAK... BUT SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS OUR REGION. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS COLD FRONT
WHILE THE GFS POPS ARE LOWER. FOR NOW... WE/LL NOT MENTION ANY
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET AND HOPE FOR A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE/YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR OCTOBER 25:
SAN ANTONIO INTL 91/2010
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 92/1950
AUSTIN MABRY 91/1992
DEL RIO INTL 99/2010

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  57  87  57  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  61  88  60  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  61  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  61  86  60  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  63  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 251126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR SKC WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
FEW050 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AND MAINLY SLY IN DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE INTACT. TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EXISTING RECORDS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PLEASE SEE THE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DATA.
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS RATHER WEAK... BUT SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS OUR REGION. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS COLD FRONT
WHILE THE GFS POPS ARE LOWER. FOR NOW... WE/LL NOT MENTION ANY
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET AND HOPE FOR A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE/YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR OCTOBER 25:
SAN ANTONIO INTL 91/2010
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 92/1950
AUSTIN MABRY 91/1992
DEL RIO INTL 99/2010

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  57  87  57  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  61  88  60  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  61  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  61  86  60  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  63  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24








000
FXUS64 KEWX 251126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR SKC WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
FEW050 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR VSBYS
IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AND MAINLY SLY IN DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE INTACT. TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EXISTING RECORDS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PLEASE SEE THE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DATA.
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS RATHER WEAK... BUT SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS OUR REGION. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS COLD FRONT
WHILE THE GFS POPS ARE LOWER. FOR NOW... WE/LL NOT MENTION ANY
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET AND HOPE FOR A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE/YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR OCTOBER 25:
SAN ANTONIO INTL 91/2010
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 92/1950
AUSTIN MABRY 91/1992
DEL RIO INTL 99/2010

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  57  87  57  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  61  88  60  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  61  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  61  86  60  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  63  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24








000
FXUS64 KEWX 250844
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
344 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE INTACT. TODAY/S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EXISTING RECORDS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PLEASE SEE THE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DATA.
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS RATHER WEAK... BUT SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPING SOME
CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW (20%) AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS OUR REGION. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS COLD FRONT
WHILE THE GFS POPS ARE LOWER. FOR NOW... WE/LL NOT MENTION ANY
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET AND HOPE FOR A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE/YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR OCTOBER 25:
SAN ANTONIO INTL 91/2010
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 92/1950
AUSTIN MABRY 91/1992
DEL RIO INTL 99/2010

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  63  88  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  57  87  57  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  61  88  60  89 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  61  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  61  86  60  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  55  88  56  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  59  88  59  88 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  63  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24








000
FXUS64 KEWX 250440
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KNOTS TOMORROW.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TX WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA...GROUND AND VEGETATION MOISTURE IS
HOLDING UP DEW POINTS A FEW EXTRA DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP MINIMIZE COOLING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH MINS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN SUNDAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECOUPLE AT NIGHT. THUS WE ADJUSTED THE MOISTURE RETURN DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD REDUCE THE ACCUMULATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH
SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND THUS HELP TO OFFSET AFTERNOON HEATING BY A
FEW DEGREES. A BROAD TROUGHING FEATURE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A DELAYED FRONTAL TIMING WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN...AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE TO STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TUESDAY TO
ENABLE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL TX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
DAYTIME THURSDAY WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY PROVIDING REASON TO CAP THE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  89  63  88 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  62  87  61  86 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  60  89  59  87 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  63  88 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 242309 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TX WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA...GROUND AND VEGETATION MOISTURE IS
HOLDING UP DEW POINTS A FEW EXTRA DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP MINIMIZE COOLING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH MINS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN SUNDAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECOUPLE AT NIGHT. THUS WE ADJUSTED THE MOISTURE RETURN DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD REDUCE THE ACCUMULATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH
SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND THUS HELP TO OFFSET AFTERNOON HEATING BY A
FEW DEGREES. A BROAD TROUGHING FEATURE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A DELAYED FRONTAL TIMING WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN...AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE TO STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TUESDAY TO
ENABLE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL TX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
DAYTIME THURSDAY WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY PROVIDING REASON TO CAP THE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  88  57  87  58 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  89  60  88  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  87  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  87  61  86  61 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  88  54  88  55 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  89  59  87  59 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  87  61  87  63 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  89  61  89  62 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 242000
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TX WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA...GROUND AND VEGETATION MOISTURE IS
HOLDING UP DEW POINTS A FEW EXTRA DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP MINIMIZE COOLING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH MINS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN SUNDAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECOUPLE AT NIGHT. THUS WE ADJUSTED THE MOISTURE RETURN DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD REDUCE THE ACCUMULATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH
SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND THUS HELP TO OFFSET AFTERNOON HEATING BY A
FEW DEGREES. A BROAD TROUGHING FEATURE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A DELAYED FRONTAL TIMING WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN...AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE TO STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TUESDAY TO
ENABLE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL TX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
DAYTIME THURSDAY WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY PROVIDING REASON TO CAP THE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  88  57  87  58 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  89  60  88  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  87  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  87  61  86  61 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  88  54  88  55 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  89  59  87  59 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  87  61  87  63 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  89  61  89  62 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 241728 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 050. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS AFTER 20Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER 25/16Z WILL SEE S/SW
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. KDRT WILL SEE E/SE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SKC TO FEW035-060. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL AT KDRT. VRBL
WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING S TO SE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AT THE I-35 TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SKC TO FEW035-060. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL AT KDRT. VRBL
WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING S TO SE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AT THE I-35 TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 241055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SKC TO FEW035-060. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL AT KDRT. VRBL
WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING S TO SE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AT THE I-35 TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240846 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24












000
FXUS64 KEWX 240839
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24










000
FXUS64 KEWX 240450 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CHANGES TO EARLIER AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE EAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 240450 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CHANGES TO EARLIER AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE EAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 232326 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 232045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231725 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AND BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST. ALL
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
EASTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER 01Z LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. BY 24/16Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR AT KAUS WITH TEMPO IFR AT KDRT. WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 5-6K AGL
THROUGH MID-EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 231213 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
713 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR AT KAUS WITH TEMPO IFR AT KDRT. WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 5-6K AGL
THROUGH MID-EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04








000
FXUS64 KEWX 230833
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 230448 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VBSYS RUNNING FROM 4
TO 6 SM THIS EVENING. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT TO ABOUT 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  10  10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 230448 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VBSYS RUNNING FROM 4
TO 6 SM THIS EVENING. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT TO ABOUT 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  10  10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 222332 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VBSYS RUNNING FROM 4
TO 6 SM THIS EVENING. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT TO ABOUT 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 222309
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 222309
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







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