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000
FXUS64 KEWX 300050
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED...SO HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KAUS AND WILL PASS THROUGH
KSAT AND KSSF BETWEEN 0130Z AND 02Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
04015G25KT RIGHT AFTER PASSAGE...THEN SETTLING DOWN 06010KT OR SO
FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RE-
ESTABLISH BY 04-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AT LEAST 10G20KT AREA WIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AT KAUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PW AT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 300050
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED...SO HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF CONVECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KAUS AND WILL PASS THROUGH
KSAT AND KSSF BETWEEN 0130Z AND 02Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
04015G25KT RIGHT AFTER PASSAGE...THEN SETTLING DOWN 06010KT OR SO
FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RE-
ESTABLISH BY 04-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AT LEAST 10G20KT AREA WIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AT KAUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PW AT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 292337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KAUS AND WILL PASS THROUGH
KSAT AND KSSF BETWEEN 0130Z AND 02Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
04015G25KT RIGHT AFTER PASSAGE...THEN SETTLING DOWN 06010KT OR SO
FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RE-
ESTABLISH BY 04-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AT LEAST 10G20KT AREAWIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AT KAUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PW AT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31







000
FXUS64 KEWX 292337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PASSED KAUS AND WILL PASS THROUGH
KSAT AND KSSF BETWEEN 0130Z AND 02Z. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
04015G25KT RIGHT AFTER PASSAGE...THEN SETTLING DOWN 06010KT OR SO
FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RE-
ESTABLISH BY 04-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS
TO AT LEAST 10G20KT AREAWIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AT KAUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PW AT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   -   10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31






000
FXUS64 KEWX 292033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PWAT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30








000
FXUS64 KEWX 292033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
LITTLE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING OUTFLOWS
TO BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION. WHILE PWAT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY POOLED AT AROUND 2 INCHES OVER OUR NE COUNTIES...THE
OUTFLOWS AND STABLE MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD HELP TO DISPERSE SOME OF
THE POOLED MOISTURE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
DEPICTS INCREASING STABILITY AND A WARMING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA IS SHOWN TO CARVE OUT INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW IN ITS WAKE OVER NW TX LEAVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED NEW
CONVECTION TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TX TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX
TO PUT A DENT IN THE SUMMER HEAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO HOLD OFF MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN MCS
TO PULL THE WIND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS
MODEL HESITANT TO SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE INITIALLY AND THEN
SPREADING ENHANCED POPS OVER A BROAD TIME PERIOD LASTING INTO
MONDAY...WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE ON POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE ADAMANT IN SHOWING A MORE
STABILIZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A BLEND WITH THE WETTER GFS WAS CHOSEN FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY SINCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS USUALLY
GOOD FOR AT LEAST ONE SURPRISE ROUND OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  97  74  94  74 /  10  10  20  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  98  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  98  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  96  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 103  78  98  78 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  96  73  92  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72 100  72  95  73 /  10  -   10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  97  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  97  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  98  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73 100  74  95  75 /  10  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 291723
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED FROM FREDERICKSBURG/T82 TO
AUSTIN/AUS TO LA GRANGE/3T5. THE FRONT HANGS AROUND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY
AND KEEP MOST OF IT NORTH AND WEST OF AUS. WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIP IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CHANCES AND SPARSE
COVERAGE.

NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO
10 KTS. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT 5 TO 10 KNOT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH TONIGHT
CAUSING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT AUS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TOMORROW MORNING. SAT/SSF/DRT WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS
WILL BE NE-ERLY 5 TO 10 KTS. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BE SERLY 5
TO 10 KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KERV TO KSAT TO KVCT...BUT
COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM LLANO TO AUSTIN TO NEAR GIDDINGS. THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THE
RAP/HRRR/WRFS MOVE THE BOUNDARY A BIT MORE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BY 3 PM THE FRONT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH
AS A KERRVILLE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE. THE LATEST 06Z
NAM IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND WITH LITTLE CIN UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE GET
GOING. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE
AREA. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS PLACES THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND THE FRONT SHOULD RESPOND BY QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY RAIN
FREE. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FOLLOW A NEARLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMO PROFILE REMAINS
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD INITIALLY
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY WE MENTIONED
THAT THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WOULD CAUSE OUR FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS BRINGING PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE LOST THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND THE
FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING INSTEAD OF SATURDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS PROMISING AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...850 FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE 5-10 KNOTS WHICH DOES
NOT HELP STRONGLY LIFT AIR PARCELS ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL
LAYER...HELPING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP AS WELL...DUE TO THE 850 FRONT LINING UP NEARLY
OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. NORTH WINDS AT 850 USUALLY MEAN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ENDING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE THREE INGREDIENTS ALONE
SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES...RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHO HAPPEN TO BE UNDER ONE OF
THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEAR
LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL END ALL POPS BY SATURDAY AND WILL SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE
HIGHS THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN BEYOND SATURDAY
WILL BE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  74  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  71 100  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  73  98  74  91 /  30  -   -   10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78 101  78  98 /  -    0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  73  98  74  93 /  30  -   -   10  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  97 /  10  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  72  99  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  75  98  76  95 /  30  10  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  75  99  77  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  73  99  75  98 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 291723
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED FROM FREDERICKSBURG/T82 TO
AUSTIN/AUS TO LA GRANGE/3T5. THE FRONT HANGS AROUND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SPARK OFF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY
AND KEEP MOST OF IT NORTH AND WEST OF AUS. WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIP IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CHANCES AND SPARSE
COVERAGE.

NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO
10 KTS. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT 5 TO 10 KNOT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH TONIGHT
CAUSING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT AUS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TOMORROW MORNING. SAT/SSF/DRT WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS
WILL BE NE-ERLY 5 TO 10 KTS. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BE SERLY 5
TO 10 KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KERV TO KSAT TO KVCT...BUT
COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM LLANO TO AUSTIN TO NEAR GIDDINGS. THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THE
RAP/HRRR/WRFS MOVE THE BOUNDARY A BIT MORE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BY 3 PM THE FRONT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH
AS A KERRVILLE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE. THE LATEST 06Z
NAM IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND WITH LITTLE CIN UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE GET
GOING. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE
AREA. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS PLACES THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND THE FRONT SHOULD RESPOND BY QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY RAIN
FREE. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FOLLOW A NEARLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMO PROFILE REMAINS
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD INITIALLY
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY WE MENTIONED
THAT THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WOULD CAUSE OUR FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS BRINGING PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE LOST THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND THE
FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING INSTEAD OF SATURDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS PROMISING AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...850 FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE 5-10 KNOTS WHICH DOES
NOT HELP STRONGLY LIFT AIR PARCELS ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL
LAYER...HELPING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP AS WELL...DUE TO THE 850 FRONT LINING UP NEARLY
OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. NORTH WINDS AT 850 USUALLY MEAN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ENDING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE THREE INGREDIENTS ALONE
SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES...RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHO HAPPEN TO BE UNDER ONE OF
THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEAR
LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL END ALL POPS BY SATURDAY AND WILL SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE
HIGHS THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN BEYOND SATURDAY
WILL BE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  74  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  71 100  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  73  98  74  91 /  30  -   -   10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78 101  78  98 /  -    0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  73  98  74  93 /  30  -   -   10  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  97 /  10  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  72  99  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  75  98  76  95 /  30  10  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  75  99  77  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  73  99  75  98 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 291126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS
WILL BE NE-ERLY 5 TO 10 KTS. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL BE SERLY 5
TO 10 KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KERV TO KSAT TO KVCT...BUT
COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM LLANO TO AUSTIN TO NEAR GIDDINGS. THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THE
RAP/HRRR/WRFS MOVE THE BOUNDARY A BIT MORE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BY 3 PM THE FRONT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH
AS A KERRVILLE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE. THE LATEST 06Z
NAM IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND WITH LITTLE CIN UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE GET
GOING. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE
AREA. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS PLACES THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND THE FRONT SHOULD RESPOND BY QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY RAIN
FREE. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FOLLOW A NEARLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMO PROFILE REMAINS
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD INITIALLY
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY WE MENTIONED
THAT THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WOULD CAUSE OUR FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS BRINGING PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE LOST THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND THE
FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING INSTEAD OF SATURDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS PROMISING AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...850 FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE 5-10 KNOTS WHICH DOES
NOT HELP STRONGLY LIFT AIR PARCELS ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL
LAYER...HELPING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP AS WELL...DUE TO THE 850 FRONT LINING UP NEARLY
OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. NORTH WINDS AT 850 USUALLY MEAN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ENDING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE THREE INGREDIENTS ALONE
SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES...RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHO HAPPEN TO BE UNDER ONE OF
THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEAR
LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL END ALL POPS BY SATURDAY AND WILL SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE
HIGHS THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN BEYOND SATURDAY
WILL BE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  74  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  71 100  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  73  98  74  91 /  30  -   -   10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78 101  78  98 /  -    0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  73  98  74  93 /  30  -   -   10  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  97 /  10  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  72  99  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  75  98  76  95 /  30  10  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  75  99  77  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  73  99  75  98 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 290852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM LLANO TO AUSTIN TO NEAR GIDDINGS. THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THE
RAP/HRRR/WRFS MOVE THE BOUNDARY A BIT MORE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BY 3 PM THE FRONT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH
AS A KERRVILLE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE. THE LATEST 06Z
NAM IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND WITH LITTLE CIN UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE GET
GOING. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE
AREA. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS PLACES THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND THE FRONT SHOULD RESPOND BY QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY RAIN
FREE. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FOLLOW A NEARLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMO PROFILE REMAINS
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD INITIALLY
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY WE MENTIONED
THAT THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WOULD CAUSE OUR FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS BRINGING PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE LOST THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND THE
FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING INSTEAD OF SATURDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS PROMISING AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...850 FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE 5-10 KNOTS WHICH DOES
NOT HELP STRONGLY LIFT AIR PARCELS ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL
LAYER...HELPING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP AS WELL...DUE TO THE 850 FRONT LINING UP NEARLY
OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. NORTH WINDS AT 850 USUALLY MEAN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ENDING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE THREE INGREDIENTS ALONE
SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES...RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHO HAPPEN TO BE UNDER ONE OF
THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEAR
LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL END ALL POPS BY SATURDAY AND WILL SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE
HIGHS THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN BEYOND SATURDAY
WILL BE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  74  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  71 100  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  73  98  74  91 /  30  -   -   10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78 101  78  98 /  -    0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  73  98  74  93 /  30  -   -   10  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  97 /  10  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  72  99  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  75  98  76  95 /  30  10  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  75  99  77  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  73  99  75  98 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 290852
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM LLANO TO AUSTIN TO NEAR GIDDINGS. THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THE
RAP/HRRR/WRFS MOVE THE BOUNDARY A BIT MORE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BY 3 PM THE FRONT COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH
AS A KERRVILLE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE. THE LATEST 06Z
NAM IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE BEST AREA FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND WITH LITTLE CIN UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE GET
GOING. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER
SOUTH...EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE
AREA. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS PLACES THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
AND THE FRONT SHOULD RESPOND BY QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND SOUTH
FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY RAIN
FREE. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FOLLOW A NEARLY
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMO PROFILE REMAINS
UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT
BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD INITIALLY
REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY WE MENTIONED
THAT THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WOULD CAUSE OUR FRONT TO STALL OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ABOUT
36 HOURS BRINGING PROLONGED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE LOST THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND THE
FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING INSTEAD OF SATURDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS PROMISING AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOSS OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...850 FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ONLY FORECAST TO BE 5-10 KNOTS WHICH DOES
NOT HELP STRONGLY LIFT AIR PARCELS ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL
LAYER...HELPING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. ALSO NOT EXPECTING MUCH POST-
FRONTAL PRECIP AS WELL...DUE TO THE 850 FRONT LINING UP NEARLY
OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. NORTH WINDS AT 850 USUALLY MEAN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ENDING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE THREE INGREDIENTS ALONE
SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO
WITH PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES...RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS WHO HAPPEN TO BE UNDER ONE OF
THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEAR
LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL END ALL POPS BY SATURDAY AND WILL SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE
HIGHS THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN BEYOND SATURDAY
WILL BE MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75  99  75  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  74  95 /  30  -   -   -   40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  71 100  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  73  98  74  91 /  30  -   -   10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78 101  78  98 /  -    0   0  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  73  98  74  93 /  30  -   -   10  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  97 /  10  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  72  99  74  96 /  20  -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  75  98  76  95 /  30  10  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  75  99  77  96 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  73  99  75  98 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00









000
FXUS64 KEWX 290436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 20Z TUESDAY. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY BY 10Z. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE I-35 TAF
SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  10  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 290436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 20Z TUESDAY. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY BY 10Z. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE I-35 TAF
SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  10  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KEWX 290052
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  10  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 290052
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  10  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282341
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282341
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282149
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282149
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31






000
FXUS64 KEWX 282041
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 282041
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281707 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A GROUP OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MVFR CATEGORY EXTENDS E TO W FROM KSFF
TO KUVA TO EAST OF KDRT. THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR JUST BEFORE THE 18Z TAFS TAKE EFFECT.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SCATTERED DECK AT ABOUT 6 TO 8
KFT TUESDAY MORNING WHILE 06Z FORECAST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
LOWERING CIGS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A RAGGED DECK OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CIG BASES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF MVFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR BEFORE LIFTING/BREAKING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13-14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. SE-SLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 281707 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A GROUP OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MVFR CATEGORY EXTENDS E TO W FROM KSFF
TO KUVA TO EAST OF KDRT. THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR JUST BEFORE THE 18Z TAFS TAKE EFFECT.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SCATTERED DECK AT ABOUT 6 TO 8
KFT TUESDAY MORNING WHILE 06Z FORECAST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
LOWERING CIGS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A RAGGED DECK OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CIG BASES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF MVFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR BEFORE LIFTING/BREAKING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13-14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. SE-SLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A RAGGED DECK OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CIG BASES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF MVFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR BEFORE LIFTING/BREAKING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13-14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. SE-SLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29







000
FXUS64 KEWX 281122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A RAGGED DECK OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CIG BASES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF MVFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR BEFORE LIFTING/BREAKING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13-14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. SE-SLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 280851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 280851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280431
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT VIS WOULD DROP AT AUS...BUT CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE WARMER AND
DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THINK THEY WILL NOT COOL
ENOUGH FOR BR TO FORM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 105
AND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND
ADVISORY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. 18Z MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO RE-ESTABLISH SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS
FOR TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS UP TO 2.4 INCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 280431
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT VIS WOULD DROP AT AUS...BUT CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE WARMER AND
DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THINK THEY WILL NOT COOL
ENOUGH FOR BR TO FORM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 105
AND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND
ADVISORY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. 18Z MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO RE-ESTABLISH SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS
FOR TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS UP TO 2.4 INCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
842 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 105
AND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND
ADVISORY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. 18Z MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO RE-ESTABLISH SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS
FOR TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS UP TO 2.4 INCHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MVFR VIS
AT AUS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 280142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
842 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 105
AND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND
ADVISORY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE
BRIEF AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. 18Z MODEL RUNS
INDICATE ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO RE-ESTABLISH SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS
FOR TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS UP TO 2.4 INCHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MVFR VIS
AT AUS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 272326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MVFR VIS
AT AUS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 272326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MVFR VIS
AT AUS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 272041
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 272041
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL
COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO
AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL
TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE
FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS
THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...
BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND
WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO
THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS
POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  99  76  96  75 /   0  -   10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72 100  73  96  72 /   0  -   10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  97  74  94  73 /   0  -   20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  78 100  77 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  75  94  73 /   0  10  20  30  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  99  73  98  72 /   0  -   -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  98  75  99  74 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 271729 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH FEW/SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. KDRT
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. AFTER 05Z WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CURRENT FORECAST ARE SHOWING LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP
SCATTERED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO HOIST HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO PLEASANTON LINE. HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES TODAY WILL BE IN THESE LOCATIONS...REACHING 105 TO 110
DEGREES...AND WHERE MORNING LOWS ONLY BOTTOMED OUT BRIEFLY AROUND
78-81 DEGREES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND
WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. WITH SUCH A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDS...THESE SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION CIGS TOMORROW AS
PROBABILITIES LOOK A BIT LESS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75  98 /   0  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  72  99  73  98 /   0  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  73  98  73  95 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 101  79 100 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  74  99  75  95 /   0  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  73 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  76  96 /  -   -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  99  76  97 /   0  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  74 100  74  99 /   0  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 271729 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH FEW/SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. KDRT
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. AFTER 05Z WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CURRENT FORECAST ARE SHOWING LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP
SCATTERED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO HOIST HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO PLEASANTON LINE. HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES TODAY WILL BE IN THESE LOCATIONS...REACHING 105 TO 110
DEGREES...AND WHERE MORNING LOWS ONLY BOTTOMED OUT BRIEFLY AROUND
78-81 DEGREES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND
WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. WITH SUCH A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDS...THESE SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION CIGS TOMORROW AS
PROBABILITIES LOOK A BIT LESS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              98  75 100  75  98 /   0  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  97  72  99  73  98 /   0  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     98  73 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  73  98  73  95 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 101  79 100 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  74  99  75  95 /   0  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  98  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  73 100  73  98 /   0  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  76  96 /  -   -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  76  99  76  97 /   0  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  74 100  74  99 /   0  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 271347
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO HOIST HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO PLEASANTON LINE. HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES TODAY WILL BE IN THESE LOCATIONS...REACHING 105 TO 110
DEGREES...AND WHERE MORNING LOWS ONLY BOTTOMED OUT BRIEFLY AROUND
78-81 DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND
WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. WITH SUCH A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDS...THESE SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION CIGS TOMORROW AS
PROBABILITIES LOOK A BIT LESS.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75 100  75  98 /  -   -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  73  98 /  -   -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  73 100  73  98 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            99  73  98  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  78 101  79 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  74  99  75  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  98  73  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73  98 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  76  96 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  76  99  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  74 100  74  99 /  -   -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 271134
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
634 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND
WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. WITH SUCH A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDS...THESE SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION CIGS TOMORROW AS
PROBABILITIES LOOK A BIT LESS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75 100  75  98  74 /  -   10  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  99  73  98  72 /  -   10  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73 100  73  98  72 /  -   -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  73  95  73 /  -   10  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 101  79 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  99  75  95  73 /  -   10  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73 100  73  98  72 /  -   -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  98  76  96  75 /  -   10  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  99  76  97  76 /  -   -   -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74 100  74  99  74 /  -   -   -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 271134
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
634 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND
WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. WITH SUCH A SMALL AREA OF
CLOUDS...THESE SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION CIGS TOMORROW AS
PROBABILITIES LOOK A BIT LESS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75 100  75  98  74 /  -   10  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  99  73  98  72 /  -   10  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73 100  73  98  72 /  -   -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  98  73  95  73 /  -   10  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 101  79 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  99  75  95  73 /  -   10  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  98  73  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73 100  73  98  72 /  -   -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  98  76  96  75 /  -   10  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  99  76  97  76 /  -   -   -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74 100  74  99  74 /  -   -   -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KEWX 270853
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75 100  75  98 /  -   -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  73  98 /  -   -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  73 100  73  98 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            99  73  98  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  78 101  79 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  74  99  75  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  98  73  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73  98 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  76  96 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  76  99  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  74 100  74  99 /  -   -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 270853
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE COVERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. NO MUCH ON THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF FEW SPOTS ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK. INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS AND NEAR
102 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY...HOT AND HUMID DAY
ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS BY
MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES WESTWARD AND LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AN UNSEASONABLE WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LLANO TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE. THE FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE NORTH AND STAY THERE FOR AWHILE UNTIL NEXT
SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE PUSHES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THURSDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A SHORT-WAVE
MOVING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL AID THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH...WE ARE ADVERTISING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2.27 ACCORDING TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY(THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA) AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THE RANGE
FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN TO THE COAST.

DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WET SOILS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75 100  75  98 /  -   -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  72  99  73  98 /  -   -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  73 100  73  98 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            99  73  98  73  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          102  78 101  79 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  74  99  75  95 /  -   -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  98  73  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73  98 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  76  96 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  76  99  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  74 100  74  99 /  -   -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00









000
FXUS64 KEWX 270451
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. HAVE INCLUDED SCT MVFR CLOUDS
FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF LA GRANGE TO SEGUIN TO PEARSALL LINE AGAIN AROUND 105
DEGREES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY
OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY. WHILE
MAIN FORCING WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY END UP BEING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...STEERING CURRENTS COULD
BRING CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IN ADDITION TO WEAK FORCING FROM ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY THE MODIFIED FRONT EVEN MAKING
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BEFORE STALLING. MODELS ADVERTISING
PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO AUSTIN TO
LA GRANGE LINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MOVES BACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE FRONT BACK AND
POSSIBLY DEEPER INTO THE CWA SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AS WELL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. REGARDLESS...DEEP MOISTURE...WITH
PWATS NEAR 2.2 INCHES POOLED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...AND
POSSIBLE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD VERY LIKELY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA SOMETIME FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS IN HWO. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND FRONT IN
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THE TREND UPWARD IN
POPS AND DOWNWARD IN TEMPS MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN FUTURE
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /   0  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  98  73 /   0  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  73  99  73 /   0  -    0  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  74  96  74 /   0  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  98  79 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  75  97  75 /   0  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74  97  73 /   0  -    0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /   0  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  98  77  97  76 /   0  -    0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  74 /   0  -    0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 270451
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. HAVE INCLUDED SCT MVFR CLOUDS
FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF LA GRANGE TO SEGUIN TO PEARSALL LINE AGAIN AROUND 105
DEGREES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY
OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY. WHILE
MAIN FORCING WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY END UP BEING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...STEERING CURRENTS COULD
BRING CONVECTION INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IN ADDITION TO WEAK FORCING FROM ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY THE MODIFIED FRONT EVEN MAKING
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BEFORE STALLING. MODELS ADVERTISING
PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO AUSTIN TO
LA GRANGE LINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN IT APPEARS DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS MOVES BACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE FRONT BACK AND
POSSIBLY DEEPER INTO THE CWA SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AS WELL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. REGARDLESS...DEEP MOISTURE...WITH
PWATS NEAR 2.2 INCHES POOLED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...AND
POSSIBLE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD VERY LIKELY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA SOMETIME FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS IN HWO. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL AND FRONT IN
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARD FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THE TREND UPWARD IN
POPS AND DOWNWARD IN TEMPS MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IN FUTURE
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /   0  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  98  73  98  73 /   0  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  99  73  99  73 /   0  -    0  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  97  74  96  74 /   0  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 100  78  98  79 /  -   -    0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  75  97  75 /   0  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  74  97  73 /   0  -    0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  73  98  73 /   0  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  99  76  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  98  77  97  76 /   0  -    0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  98  75  98  74 /   0  -    0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







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