Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 012346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011949
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /   0  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /   0  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  -   -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  -   20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011949
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /   0  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /   0  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  -   -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  -   20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011729 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONCERNS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSAT/KSSF IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME
AND POSSIBLY KAUS 20Z-22Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY...UP
TO 40 KNOTS IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. BY SUNSET
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AND S/SE WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS.
KSAT/KSSF/KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 10Z. KAUS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. AFTER 16Z THURSDAY WILL SEE VFR CIGS RETURN AND S/SE
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302313
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302313
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301742 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING THEN AGAIN AFTER 16Z WED. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN IN THE 30-HOUR SITES FOR WED. S/SE WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN
5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. IN OR NEAR CONVECTION WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KSAT/KSSF AROUND 07Z-08Z THEN
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CIGS FOR KAUS. CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR AFTER 16Z-18Z WED. S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z-
16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  40  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  40  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  30  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  40  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  50  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  40  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301635
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 90 AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH
A THE WEAK 850 MB JET MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HI-RES MODELS AND
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE...EXCLUDING THE NAM...THAT THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 TODAY...BUT
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED IF NOT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE N-NW INTO EVEN THE HILL
COUNTRY TODAY. CONSIDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OUR NW AND NE MAY
ASSIST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
STILL MAINTAINING 50% POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 90.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  40  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  40  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  30  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  40  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  50  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  40  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  30  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  30  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  30  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A MOIST SELY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN TO WESTERN TEXAS GENERATE SHRA/TSRA THAT PUSH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH VCSH LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR PREVAILING IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS. STRATUS WITH AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22
KTS AS AIRMASS BECOMES MIXED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS DECREASE BY LATE EVENING TO 7 KTS OR LESS
AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  30  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300907
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  30  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300907
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CENTERED ON TODAY`S RAIN/TSTORM
CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRIER TREND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGIONAL RADAR IS ACTIVE THIS MORNING DEPICTING THREE SEPARATE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION WITH ONE NW...ONE
NE...AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TO THE SE. FOR THE MORE VIGOROUS
TSTORM CLUSTER NORTH OF SAN ANGELO...LATEST IR SAT LOOPS AND RADAR
SUGGEST STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO WEST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM SEPARATE
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AND THIS OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH THE MAIN CLUSTER`S STRENGTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SECONDLY...THE SMALLER CLUSTER NEAR DALLAS IS ALSO
LOOSING ITS COMPOSURE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
AND WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE WEAKENING SYSTEMS APPEAR TO HAVE HEALTHY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD MAKE IT NEAR OR INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON AND HELP BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
THE THIRD AREA OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST IS BEING AIDED BY 25-30
KT OF LOW-LVL MOIST FLOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH
NEAR THE I-37/35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THROUGH EARLY AFTN. HAVE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SW/S TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN MEXICO
AND AGREEMENT ON GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS. DEPENDING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EVOLUTION...RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES MAY NEED TO RAISED FROM MY
CURRENT 20-30% IN THE NORTH. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A QUICK 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN 1
HOUR AND A WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A H7-H5 COL OR SADDLE
POINT HEIGHT FIELD WEDNESDAY THAT WILL RESULT IN LOW WINDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER
THE REGION AS THE LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND WESTERN CONUS
HIGH BRIDGES TOGETHER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPRESSION WITH LOWER RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WED AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE/INVERTED TROUGH ACTIVITY ACROSS
SW/S/SE AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY TOO...WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE ESTABLISHING H7-H5 HEIGHT BRIDGE CUTTING BETWEEN THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND (FRI/SAT) LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE WITH ONLY
20-30% PULSE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON STAGNANT PATTERN WITH LOW-CHANCE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 8-10PM EACH
EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...AND FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS
APPEAR TO BE GOOD TO GO FOR NOW FRI/SAT OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE WETTER AS THE HIGHER HEIGHT BRIDGE
LINKAGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO INFLUENCE THE REGION WITH ADDED LIFT. BOTH EC AND GFS
INDICATE A HIGHER RAIN SIGNAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN
MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF US 281. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON SUNDAY
DURING AS REMAINING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  90  73  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  72  91 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  73  93  73  92 /  30  20  10  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  90  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  90  71  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  90  73  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  90  74  92 /  30  20  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  92  74  91 /  30  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300547
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY AT THE COAST WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KSAT/KSSF AS
BEST CHANCES THERE WITH NO MENTION AT KAUS/KDRT. WILL MONITOR
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR LATER UPDATES. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22 KTS
ON TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORM ALSO NOTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL LEAVE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 08Z-09Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 12Z
OUT WEST AT KDRT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  92  73  91  74 /  10  20  -   20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  72  91  73 /  10  20  -   20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  91  72  90  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  92  72  91  73 /  20  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  91  74 /  10  20  -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  91  71  90  72 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  91  73 /  10  20  -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  92  74  91  75 /  10  30  -   20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  92  73  91  74 /  10  30  -   20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  92  73  91  75 /  10  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300547
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY AT THE COAST WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KSAT/KSSF AS
BEST CHANCES THERE WITH NO MENTION AT KAUS/KDRT. WILL MONITOR
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR LATER UPDATES. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22 KTS
ON TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORM ALSO NOTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL LEAVE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 08Z-09Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 12Z
OUT WEST AT KDRT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  92  73  91  74 /  10  20  -   20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  72  91  73 /  10  20  -   20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  91  72  90  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  92  72  91  73 /  20  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  91  74 /  10  20  -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  91  71  90  72 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  91  73 /  10  20  -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  92  74  91  75 /  10  30  -   20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  92  73  91  74 /  10  30  -   20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  92  73  91  75 /  10  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300547
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY AT THE COAST WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KSAT/KSSF AS
BEST CHANCES THERE WITH NO MENTION AT KAUS/KDRT. WILL MONITOR
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR LATER UPDATES. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING VFR AROUND
MIDDAY. LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. STRATUS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22 KTS
ON TUESDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORM ALSO NOTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL LEAVE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 08Z-09Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 12Z
OUT WEST AT KDRT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  74  91  74 /  10  20  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  92  73  91  74 /  10  20  -   20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  72  91  73 /  10  20  -   20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  91  72  90  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  92  72  91  73 /  20  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  91  74 /  10  20  -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  91  71  90  72 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  91  73 /  10  20  -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  92  74  91  75 /  10  30  -   20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  92  73  91  74 /  10  30  -   20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  92  73  91  75 /  10  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300017 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORM ALSO NOTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL LEAVE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 08Z-09Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 12Z
OUT WEST AT KDRT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300017 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
717 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORM ALSO NOTED FARTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE/LL LEAVE SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING AS IT APPEARS MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 08Z-09Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 12Z
OUT WEST AT KDRT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING...THEN LIFT AND SCATTER INTO VFR AFTER ROUGHLY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 292335
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPIN NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 292335
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPIN NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 292335
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPIN NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 292335
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
SO FAR PRETTY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING NORTH OF BURNET AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES GENERATING OUTFLOWS. THOSE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH
OTHER OUTFLOWS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS CREEPIN NORTHWARD WHICH
MAY GENERATE SOME STORMS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR AROUND THE AUSTIN
AREA. ELSEWHERE...RAP/NAM INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER CARRIZO SPRINGS WHERE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS WELL. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AS A RESULT.

LOOKS AGAIN LIKE POP POTENTIAL WILL REALLY FALL OFF AFTER
NIGHTFALL OR AROUND THE 9-10PM TIME FRAME SO REMOVED POP CHANCES
FROM 06Z- 12Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291947
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291947
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291947
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291947
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LAVACA
COUNTY. AT THE SAME TIME OTHER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. THESE HILL
COUNTRY SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DYING
OFF.

WHILE THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TOMORROW COULD BE ENHANCED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK.

WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TOMORROW A HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OUT OF ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE DECREASES FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS REPRESENTED BY
DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE BREAK FROM THE RAIN IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW THANKS TO THE 850MB/700MB HIGH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RETURN TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES IN
SOME SPOTS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-35 OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY ENHANCING RAINFALL CHANCES
FURTHER.

WHILE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A TOTAL WASH OUT AS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. IT WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY GETTING UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  91  73  91  72 /  20  30  10  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  90  72  91  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  72  91  71 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  92  74 /  20  40  10  30  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  73  92  73 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
MUCH LESS CONVECTION TODAY VERSES THIS TIME ON SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT TIMES. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED AT ANY TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. KAUS WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET SOUTHERLY
WINDS DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT
THE I-35 SITES 08Z-10Z. KDRT WILL BE AROUND 12Z. SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR 17Z-19Z. WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE S/SE
AT 10-15 KNOTS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE
30-HOUR SITES (KSAT/KAUS)AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RETREND HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING
OBSERVATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
MUCH LESS CONVECTION TODAY VERSES THIS TIME ON SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT TIMES. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED AT ANY TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. KAUS WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH S/SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET SOUTHERLY
WINDS DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT
THE I-35 SITES 08Z-10Z. KDRT WILL BE AROUND 12Z. SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR 17Z-19Z. WINDS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE S/SE
AT 10-15 KNOTS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE
30-HOUR SITES (KSAT/KAUS)AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RETREND HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING
OBSERVATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291542
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RETREND HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING
OBSERVATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291542
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RETREND HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON MORNING
OBSERVATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST. WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO
LOW. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO
MENTION WITH KAUS HAVING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES THAN THE OTHER
SITES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY
WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
MID MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS
PREVAIL FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS
REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTS TO VFR
LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO
7 TO 14 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290825
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290825
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE
LINGERING COUPLE OF STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES UNDERNEATH A
700 MB DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPARK OFF A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND
1.8 INCHES AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY PICKING UP IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...WHILE MOST AREAS NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME AND WILL KEEP
20 POPS GOING...BEFORE ENDING THEM AFTER 06Z.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND COULD BE
THE HIGHEST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL WITH
DECENT AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON QPF ORIENTED JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT WITH SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS PUSHING 30 KNOTS IN PLACES.
THIS WILL MEAN LESS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EQUATE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THE BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...WILL
ONLY FORECAST 20 POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR ANY
ACTIVITY THAT POPS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SLACKS OFF ON
FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR
THE DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AS A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY MOVES INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
4TH. 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
20S AND 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. A DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 2
INCHES OR GREATER OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. 30 AND 40 POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGES
WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WHICH IS PRETTY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  73  90  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  89  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  72  89  72  90 /  10  10  40  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  71  88  71  90 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  74  90  73  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  89  73  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  72  90  71  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  88  72  90 /  20  10  40  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  74  89  73  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  72  89  73  90 /  10  10  30  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO LOW. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO MENTION. VFR SKIES WILL BECOME AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRATUS REDEVELOPS. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE
TO 7 TO 14 KTS ON MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HOUR DEFINITELY SHOWS A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WE WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT
KSAT AND KSSF THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONVERGE
OVER THIS AREA AROUND 01Z. ELSEWHERE...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DECREASES. WE/LL
MENTION PREVAILING MVFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND
09Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z-16Z AT DRT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OR LESS CONFINED
TO NORTH OF A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO TO NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY THROUGH
LA GRANGE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LACK OF
SHEAR...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING MUCH UPSCALE GROWTH WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE TO CONVECT NEW CELLS BUT FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...THE OUTFLOW GENERATION OF THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY
DICTATE THE REST OF THE EVENING AS A RESULT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
PRETTY STRONG PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.

WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POP CHANCES FOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO
ISOLATED MENTION BUT EXTENDED THE POP CHANCES THROUGH 04Z AS
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS HAVE NOT SEEN A RAPID DOWNTREND IMMEDIATELY AT
NIGHTFALL. AFTER 04Z...POP CHANCES ARE LOWERED THROUGH 06Z TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN REMOVED AFTER 06Z AS HI RES MODELS KEEP A
QUIET NIGHT FOR THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TOWERING RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM BASTROP TO SAN ANTONIO TO CARRIZO SPRINGS. THIS WAS
IN A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD AND WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM VARYING
DIRECTIONS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND THE
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
LEADING TO SOME SMALL HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE
POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN A FEW PLACES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND PUSH ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND RAISE POPS AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  90  72 /  10  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  89  71 /  10  40  10  30  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  71  89  71 /  10  30  10  20   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  73  90  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  89  72  90  73 /  10  30  10  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  90  72  89  70 /  10  30  10  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  72 /  10  40  10  30  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  72  90  74 /  20  40  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  89  73  89  72 /  10  40  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO LOW. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO MENTION. VFR SKIES WILL BECOME AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRATUS REDEVELOPS. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE
TO 7 TO 14 KTS ON MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HOUR DEFINITELY SHOWS A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WE WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT
KSAT AND KSSF THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONVERGE
OVER THIS AREA AROUND 01Z. ELSEWHERE...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DECREASES. WE/LL
MENTION PREVAILING MVFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND
09Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z-16Z AT DRT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OR LESS CONFINED
TO NORTH OF A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO TO NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY THROUGH
LA GRANGE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LACK OF
SHEAR...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING MUCH UPSCALE GROWTH WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE TO CONVECT NEW CELLS BUT FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...THE OUTFLOW GENERATION OF THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY
DICTATE THE REST OF THE EVENING AS A RESULT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
PRETTY STRONG PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.

WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POP CHANCES FOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO
ISOLATED MENTION BUT EXTENDED THE POP CHANCES THROUGH 04Z AS
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS HAVE NOT SEEN A RAPID DOWNTREND IMMEDIATELY AT
NIGHTFALL. AFTER 04Z...POP CHANCES ARE LOWERED THROUGH 06Z TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN REMOVED AFTER 06Z AS HI RES MODELS KEEP A
QUIET NIGHT FOR THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TOWERING RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM BASTROP TO SAN ANTONIO TO CARRIZO SPRINGS. THIS WAS
IN A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD AND WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM VARYING
DIRECTIONS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND THE
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
LEADING TO SOME SMALL HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE
POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN A FEW PLACES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND PUSH ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND RAISE POPS AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  90  72 /  10  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  89  71 /  10  40  10  30  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  71  89  71 /  10  30  10  20   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  73  90  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  89  72  90  73 /  10  30  10  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  90  72  89  70 /  10  30  10  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  72 /  10  40  10  30  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  72  90  74 /  20  40  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  89  73  89  72 /  10  40  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
TAFS AS PROBS ARE TOO LOW. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE TO MENTION. VFR SKIES WILL BECOME AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRATUS REDEVELOPS. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE
TO 7 TO 14 KTS ON MONDAY AND THEN DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HOUR DEFINITELY SHOWS A DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WE WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT
KSAT AND KSSF THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONVERGE
OVER THIS AREA AROUND 01Z. ELSEWHERE...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DECREASES. WE/LL
MENTION PREVAILING MVFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND
09Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z-16Z AT DRT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 16Z-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OR LESS CONFINED
TO NORTH OF A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO TO NORTHERN BEXAR COUNTY THROUGH
LA GRANGE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LACK OF
SHEAR...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PREVENTING MUCH UPSCALE GROWTH WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO CONTINUE TO CONVECT NEW CELLS BUT FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...THE OUTFLOW GENERATION OF THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY
DICTATE THE REST OF THE EVENING AS A RESULT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
PRETTY STRONG PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA SO IT
WOULD APPEAR THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT.

WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POP CHANCES FOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO
ISOLATED MENTION BUT EXTENDED THE POP CHANCES THROUGH 04Z AS
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS HAVE NOT SEEN A RAPID DOWNTREND IMMEDIATELY AT
NIGHTFALL. AFTER 04Z...POP CHANCES ARE LOWERED THROUGH 06Z TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AND THEN REMOVED AFTER 06Z AS HI RES MODELS KEEP A
QUIET NIGHT FOR THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TOWERING RIDGE OVER THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRETCHED ACROSS
OUR CWA FROM BASTROP TO SAN ANTONIO TO CARRIZO SPRINGS. THIS WAS
IN A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD AND WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM VARYING
DIRECTIONS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND THE
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY LARGE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
LEADING TO SOME SMALL HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE
POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN A FEW PLACES
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND PUSH ANY RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST AND RAISE POPS AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  10  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  90  72 /  10  30  10  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  72  89  71 /  10  40  10  30  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  71  89  71 /  10  30  10  20   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  91  73  90  71 /  10  20  10  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  89  72  90  73 /  10  30  10  20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  90  72  89  70 /  10  30  10  30  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  72  89  72 /  10  40  10  30  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  72  90  74 /  20  40  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  89  73  89  72 /  10  40  10  30  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  20  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities