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000
FXUS64 KEWX 010602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
CIGS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR AT SAT/SSF...AND EXPECT THE SAME
TO OCCUR AT AUS AND DRT BETWEEN 9-10Z. CIGS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR
BY 16Z AT ALL SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO CONVECTION THAT
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR CRP. NONE OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ACCURATELY DEPICTED THIS EARLY ONSET OF TSRA...WITH ONLY
THE RAP SHOWING SOME SEMBLANCE OF IT. FURTHER...IT APPEARS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PREDICTING. THUS...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHRA AT SAT/SSF JUST
AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THE EVOLUTION OF TSRA OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TOMORROW. ASSUMING THAT ONGOING TSRA DO NOT EXPAND AND DISRUPT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE TOMORROW...EXPECT IT TO PASS THROUGH
SAT/SSF AROUND 20Z AND AUS AROUND 21Z WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KT WIND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-30 PERCENT...PARTICULARLY AT AUS...SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR
SAT/SSF AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
AFTER SEEING HOW CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST EVOLVES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  72  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  75  96  76  96 /  10  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  72  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  72  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  93  73  92 /  40  40  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  74  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
CIGS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR AT SAT/SSF...AND EXPECT THE SAME
TO OCCUR AT AUS AND DRT BETWEEN 9-10Z. CIGS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR
BY 16Z AT ALL SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO CONVECTION THAT
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR CRP. NONE OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ACCURATELY DEPICTED THIS EARLY ONSET OF TSRA...WITH ONLY
THE RAP SHOWING SOME SEMBLANCE OF IT. FURTHER...IT APPEARS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PREDICTING. THUS...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHRA AT SAT/SSF JUST
AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THE EVOLUTION OF TSRA OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TOMORROW. ASSUMING THAT ONGOING TSRA DO NOT EXPAND AND DISRUPT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE TOMORROW...EXPECT IT TO PASS THROUGH
SAT/SSF AROUND 20Z AND AUS AROUND 21Z WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KT WIND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-30 PERCENT...PARTICULARLY AT AUS...SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR
SAT/SSF AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
AFTER SEEING HOW CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST EVOLVES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  72  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  75  96  76  96 /  10  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  72  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  72  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  93  73  92 /  40  40  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  74  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
CIGS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR AT SAT/SSF...AND EXPECT THE SAME
TO OCCUR AT AUS AND DRT BETWEEN 9-10Z. CIGS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR
BY 16Z AT ALL SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO CONVECTION THAT
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR CRP. NONE OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ACCURATELY DEPICTED THIS EARLY ONSET OF TSRA...WITH ONLY
THE RAP SHOWING SOME SEMBLANCE OF IT. FURTHER...IT APPEARS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PREDICTING. THUS...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHRA AT SAT/SSF JUST
AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THE EVOLUTION OF TSRA OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TOMORROW. ASSUMING THAT ONGOING TSRA DO NOT EXPAND AND DISRUPT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE TOMORROW...EXPECT IT TO PASS THROUGH
SAT/SSF AROUND 20Z AND AUS AROUND 21Z WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KT WIND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-30 PERCENT...PARTICULARLY AT AUS...SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR
SAT/SSF AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
AFTER SEEING HOW CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST EVOLVES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  72  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  75  96  76  96 /  10  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  72  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  72  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  93  73  92 /  40  40  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  74  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010602
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
CIGS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO MVFR AT SAT/SSF...AND EXPECT THE SAME
TO OCCUR AT AUS AND DRT BETWEEN 9-10Z. CIGS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR
BY 16Z AT ALL SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO CONVECTION THAT
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR CRP. NONE OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ACCURATELY DEPICTED THIS EARLY ONSET OF TSRA...WITH ONLY
THE RAP SHOWING SOME SEMBLANCE OF IT. FURTHER...IT APPEARS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PREDICTING. THUS...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHRA AT SAT/SSF JUST
AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THE EVOLUTION OF TSRA OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
TOMORROW. ASSUMING THAT ONGOING TSRA DO NOT EXPAND AND DISRUPT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE TOMORROW...EXPECT IT TO PASS THROUGH
SAT/SSF AROUND 20Z AND AUS AROUND 21Z WITH ISOLATED 20-25 KT WIND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
20-30 PERCENT...PARTICULARLY AT AUS...SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR
SAT/SSF AT THIS TIME. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE
AFTER SEEING HOW CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST EVOLVES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  94  74  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  20  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  72  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  75  96  76  96 /  10  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  72  94  72  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  72  92  73  92 /  20  20  20  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  93  73  92 /  40  40  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  74  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010117
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010117
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010117
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010117
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
817 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAKE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 312346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY
01/01Z. EARLIER TSRA AT KSSF AND SHRA AT KAUS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MORNING...SPREAD TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND THEN DISSIPATE WHILE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCSH AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS FOR UPDATES TO
PRECIP MENTIONS.

VFR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND SPREAD TO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE BY MORNING. HAVE ONLY SCT020 AT KDRT AS CIGS SHOULD STAY
JUST EAST OF THE SITE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR SKIES BY MIDDAY.
EXCEPT LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE...DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
TO 7 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK WITH PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 312008
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 312008
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH ONLY 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A FEW SPORADIC 100F
READINGS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS GONZALES...FAYETTE AND PUSH INTO BASTROP/CALDWELL
AND GUADALUPE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE METROPLEXES.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 4AM FOR ALL OF THE REGION BUT
A NEW MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE COAST
WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY
BY 6AM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS PER HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FAR EAST LOCATIONS
MAY HAVE SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
BE 20% AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT APPEARS 20-30% RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE BEST WE
CAN MUSTER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER US. BOTH
MODELS INITIALLY TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE EC KEEPING IT THERE WHILE THE GFS
RETROGRADES IT BACK TOWARDS US BY FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
PERTURBATIONS...MORE SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE NOTED FOR THE RETROGRADING
SOLUTION OF AT LEAST A INVERTED TROUGH TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST. FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL SEEMS TO BE 20-
30% POP WORTH GIVEN THE 700-300MB DIVERGENCE AREA SOUTH TOWARDS
BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL SIGNALS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
EVOLUTION AND IF THIS DIVERGENCE AREA SHIFTS NORTH. BY LATE WEEKEND
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BETTER RIDGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD
FURTHER THE DRY AND WARM TREND WITH NO LARGE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  40  40  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311751 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO VFR
BY AROUND 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE DRY SIDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311751 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO VFR
BY AROUND 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE DRY SIDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311751 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO VFR
BY AROUND 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE DRY SIDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311751 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO VFR
BY AROUND 16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. AREA TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE DRY SIDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  72  92  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  92  72  92  73 /  20  20  20  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  93  73 /  30  30  30  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  20  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  94  74 /  20  20  20  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311631 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311631 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311631 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311631 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS WERE
ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THEIR OR THE MAX HIGH TEMP VALUES. SEE
UPDATED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OVER VICTORIA AND SHOULD ENTER PORTIONS OF DEWITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. FARTHER NORTH...IN GONZALES
AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AS WELL. WHILE WEATHER AND POP GRIDS HAD MENTIONED THIS ACTIVITY
ALREADY...THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FROM THE 20-30%
NOW TO 40-50% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH. THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND IS SUPPORTING 700-300 MB DIVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE 35
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST. MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED NEAR 2500 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN POCKETS
AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMRPOVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMRPOVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMRPOVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF BUT SHOULD IMRPOVE TO VFR IN
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. BEST SHOT AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF KSAT BUT SOME AFTERNOON AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FARTHER NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310707
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
LONG TERM...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310707
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY & TONIGHT)...WV IMAGERY IS CLEARLY SHOWING
MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. SINCE NIGHTFALL...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAIN ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING IN FROM THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORNING.

DURING THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING
IN BOTH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND DRY AIR...AND AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ISSUE BEING HOW FAR
INLAND IT WILL REACH. WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW LIKELY AT OR
AROUND SAN ANTONIO BY MID DAY WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
REACHED...THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS A SHOT AT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A PREFERENCE TO THE BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF
PWATS OF AOA 1.6 INCHES WITH AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG
LAPSE RATES TO 700 MB NEAR SAN ANTONIO. HOWEVER...ABOVE 600 MB...NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL GROWTH POTENTIAL. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DROP OFF AT OR JUST AFTER 00Z AND WITH
BETTER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...INCREASING STRATUS AGAIN APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON TUESDAY THE ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER
TO THIS AXIS...RUNNING THROUGH THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TOWARDS THE TX/LA BORDER...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS CONFINED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO...BENEATH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SLIGHT HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER WEST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE...INDICATING WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO FARTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR NOW HAVE
INDICTED LOW ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FARTHER WEST...BUT
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  71  93  71  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  95  73  95 /  20  -   20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  71  93  72  93 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  97  75  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  93  73  93 /  20  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  95  72  94 /  20  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  93  72  93 /  20  -   20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  94  75  94 /  20  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
LONG TERM...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 310534
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR IS QUIET AT TAF ISSUANCE AND IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME VFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAT/KSSF THIS MORNING. TO A LESSER
EXTENT...KAUS MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR AS WELL. EXPECTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY PATCHY RAINS LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
TTU-WRF HAS DONE WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATING WHERE THE RAIN
WILL FALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER TEXAS. IT SHOWS
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO AND FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING RAIN FREE FORECAST THERE...ALTHOUGH WILL BOOST
POPS TO THE MID TEENS. RAIN COOLED AIR IN AREAS HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS AND EXPECT STEADY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE REESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH POPS DEPENDING ON THE MEANDERINGS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BE GONE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ANY MVFR CIGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z-19Z MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SELY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              94  74  94  74  94 /  10  -   20   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  72  92  71  93 /  10  -   20   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  73  94  72  94 /  10  -   20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  73  93  72  93 /  10  -   10   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  75  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  73  93  73  93 /  10  -   20   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  72  94  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  73  93  72  93 /  10  -   20  -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  93  72  93 /  10  10  40  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  75  93  75  93 /  10  -   20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  94  74  94 /  10  -   20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY PATCHY RAINS LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
TTU-WRF HAS DONE WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATING WHERE THE RAIN
WILL FALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER TEXAS. IT SHOWS
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO AND FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING RAIN FREE FORECAST THERE...ALTHOUGH WILL BOOST
POPS TO THE MID TEENS. RAIN COOLED AIR IN AREAS HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS AND EXPECT STEADY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE REESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH POPS DEPENDING ON THE MEANDERINGS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BE GONE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ANY MVFR CIGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z-19Z MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SELY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  94  74 /  10  10  -   20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  72  92  71 /  -   10  -   20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  95  73  94  72 /  -   10  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  93  73  93  72 /  20  10  -   10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97  75 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  94  73  93  73 /  20  10  -   20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  72 /  -   10  -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  93  72 /  -   10  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  75  93  75 /  -   10  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  74  94  74 /  -   10  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302330 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BE GONE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ANY MVFR CIGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z-19Z MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SELY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  94  74 /  20  -   -   20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  72  92  71 /  -   -   -   20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  95  73  94  72 /  -   -   -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  93  73  93  72 /  20  -   -   10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  73  93  73 /  20  -   -   20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  72 /  10  -   -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  93  72 /  -   10  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  75  93  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 302330 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BE GONE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ANY MVFR CIGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z-19Z MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SELY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  94  74 /  20  -   -   20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  72  92  71 /  -   -   -   20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  95  73  94  72 /  -   -   -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  93  73  93  72 /  20  -   -   10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  73  93  73 /  20  -   -   20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  72 /  10  -   -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  93  72 /  -   10  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  75  93  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301946
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  94  74 /  20  -   -   20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  72  92  71 /  -   -   -   20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  95  73  94  72 /  -   -   -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  93  73  93  72 /  20  -   -   10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  73  93  73 /  20  -   -   20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  72 /  10  -   -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  93  72 /  -   10  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  75  93  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301946
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  94  74 /  20  -   -   20   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  94  72  92  71 /  -   -   -   20   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  95  73  94  72 /  -   -   -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  93  73  93  72 /  20  -   -   10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  73  93  73 /  20  -   -   20   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  95  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  72 /  10  -   -   20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  93  72 /  -   10  10  40  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  94  75  93  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  95  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AND IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ENSURING THAT AT MOST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER AND AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR TAFDRT/TAFAUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES ARE AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY AIR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY. HIRES MODELS KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 00Z TO 03Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DRT
SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM 2KFT TO
ABOUT 13KFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  30  20  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  30  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AND IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ENSURING THAT AT MOST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER AND AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR TAFDRT/TAFAUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES ARE AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY AIR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY. HIRES MODELS KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 00Z TO 03Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DRT
SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM 2KFT TO
ABOUT 13KFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  30  20  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  30  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AND IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ENSURING THAT AT MOST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER AND AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR TAFDRT/TAFAUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES ARE AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY AIR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY. HIRES MODELS KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 00Z TO 03Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DRT
SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM 2KFT TO
ABOUT 13KFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  30  20  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  30  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH AND IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ENSURING THAT AT MOST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO PRETTY MEAGER AND AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR TAFDRT/TAFAUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES ARE AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF THUNDER CHANCES
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY AIR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY. HIRES MODELS KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 00Z TO 03Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DRT
SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM 2KFT TO
ABOUT 13KFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  30  20  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  30  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301604 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY. HIRES MODELS KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 00Z TO 03Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DRT
SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM 2KFT TO
ABOUT 13KFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  30  20  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  30  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301604 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS RESULTING
IN LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH MONDAY. HIRES MODELS KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SITS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AFTER 00Z TO 03Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. DRT
SOUNDING FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM 2KFT TO
ABOUT 13KFT. WITH THAT IN MIND...SOME OF THE LIGHT PRECIP MAY NOT
REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  20  -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  30  20  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  30  20  -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 301132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN EXITING EAST OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. STILL COULD SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO IMPACT CATEGORIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
TODAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KAUS TERMINAL OFF
AND ON TODAY. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAUS AS A RESULT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CHANGES FROM VFR TODAY BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED
OFF RADAR TRENDS.

MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300726
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
226 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS GENERATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE AUSTIN
AREA. AT LEAST SOME 250 MB LIFT WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP THESE
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE STILL QUITE
DRY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY PROHIBIT
MUCH MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SO WOULD
EXPECT THE RADAR TODAY TO LOOK A BIT WORSE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY
BEING SEEN AT THE SURFACE. DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO BE UNDER THE BEST MOISTURE TODAY
PER THE GFS/NAM/RAP SOLUTIONS. ALSO...WRF/HRRR/RAP/NAM ALL PRODUCE
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY IN THIS SAME AREA. IF IT
WERENT FOR THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WOULD PROBABLY GO FOR
LOW END CHANCE POPS. BUT CONFIDENCE JUST ISNT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.

DECIDED TO GO A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE ON THE MAX T GRID TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAY HAVE BEEN
A BIT OVERDONE ON THE PLATEAU BUT THE DEVIATION FROM POPULATED TOP
PERFORMING GUIDANCE WASNT MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO. MAY END UP
WORKING OUT WELL. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AND SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR A BIT BEFORE SOME MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ON MONDAY THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM FROM ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE BENEATH AND WRAPPED AROUND BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED...ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BETTER COVERAGE AND POPS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE
LOW. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AXIS OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH VORT MAX SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE OF QPF EAST
OF I-35 ON TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THIS FEATURE AND BETTER MOISTURE
POOLING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGES FARTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW...ISOLATED POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35...HINTED BY THE
GFS. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  96  74  94 /  20  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  69  94  71  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  97  72  94 /  10  -   10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  95  72  93 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           96  74  99  75  97 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  95  73  93 /  20  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  70  96  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  72  94  72  93 /  20  -   10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  72  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  73  95  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
LONG TERM...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
10+ KFT CEILINGS PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
CLOUD COVER DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE TAF BUT SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT MORNING 2KFT CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT
KDRT AND KSAT/KSSF. MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. SO SOME AMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  74  95  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  94  71  94 /  10  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  96  72  95 /  10  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            94  72  94  72  93 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  98  75  98 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  96  70  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  94  72  94 /  10  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  95  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  73  96  73  96 /  10  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
10+ KFT CEILINGS PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
CLOUD COVER DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE TAF BUT SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT MORNING 2KFT CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT
KDRT AND KSAT/KSSF. MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. SO SOME AMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  74  95  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  94  71  94 /  10  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  96  72  95 /  10  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            94  72  94  72  93 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  98  75  98 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  96  70  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  94  72  94 /  10  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  95  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  73  96  73  96 /  10  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300537
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
10+ KFT CEILINGS PRESENT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS
CLOUD COVER DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA THAT WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE TAF BUT SHOULDNT RESULT IN ANY CATEGORY
CHANGES. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT MORNING 2KFT CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT
KDRT AND KSAT/KSSF. MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. SO SOME AMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED TOMORROW AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  74  95  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  94  71  94 /  10  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  72  96  72  95 /  10  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            94  72  94  72  93 /  10  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  74  98  75  98 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  71  96  70  96 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  72  94  72  94 /  10  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  73  94  73  93 /  10  -   10  10  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  95  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  73  96  73  96 /  10  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 300231
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
931 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND IT. NUMEROUS HI-RES MODELS HAVE INDICATED THIS LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE...HILL COUNTRY AND ESCARPMENT AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HOWEVER TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT...OR
SUNDAY...BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FALLING MAINLY OUT OF
MID CLOUDS AND WIND UP AS VIRGA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL JUST COME FROM THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS WEEK...STAYING
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS.  THE TROF AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX
DOWN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO GIVE AS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. AM INCLUDING LOWER END
POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ZONES STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS
IS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. THE PATTERN OUT WEST
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN TROUGHING DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST COAST SENDING MOISTURE UP THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SW AND WEST TEXAS. GFS IS STRONGER ON A TROF NEAR CALIFORNIA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...WE APPEAR
TO BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  94  70  94  71 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  95  72  96  72 /  -   10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  94  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  95  73 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  95  71  96  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  93  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  94  73 /   0  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  95  74 /  -   10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  96  73  96  73 /  -   10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KEWX 292340
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HOWEVER TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT...OR
SUNDAY...BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FALLING MAINLY OUT OF
MID CLOUDS AND WIND UP AS VIRGA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL JUST COME FROM THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS WEEK...STAYING
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS.  THE TROF AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX
DOWN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO GIVE AS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. AM INCLUDING LOWER END
POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ZONES STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS
IS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. THE PATTERN OUT WEST
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN TROFFING DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST COAST SENDING MOISTURE UP THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SW AND WEST TEXAS. GFS IS STRONGER ON A TROF NEAR CALIFORNIA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...WE APPEAR
TO BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  94  70  94  71 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  95  72  96  72 /  -   10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  94  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  95  73 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  95  71  96  70 /  -   10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  93  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  94  73 /   0  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  95  74 /  -   10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  96  73  96  73 /  -   10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY





000
FXUS64 KEWX 292340
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HOWEVER TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT...OR
SUNDAY...BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FALLING MAINLY OUT OF
MID CLOUDS AND WIND UP AS VIRGA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL JUST COME FROM THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS WEEK...STAYING
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS.  THE TROF AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX
DOWN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO GIVE AS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. AM INCLUDING LOWER END
POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ZONES STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS
IS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. THE PATTERN OUT WEST
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN TROFFING DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST COAST SENDING MOISTURE UP THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SW AND WEST TEXAS. GFS IS STRONGER ON A TROF NEAR CALIFORNIA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...WE APPEAR
TO BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  94  70  94  71 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  95  72  96  72 /  -   10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  94  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  95  73 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  95  71  96  70 /  -   10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  93  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  94  73 /   0  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  95  74 /  -   10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  96  73  96  73 /  -   10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291930
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HOWEVER TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT...OR
SUNDAY...BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FALLING MAINLY OUT OF
MID CLOUDS AND WIND UP AS VIRGA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL JUST COME FROM THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS WEEK...STAYING
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS.  THE TROF AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX
DOWN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO GIVE AS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. AM INCLUDING LOWER END
POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ZONES STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS
IS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. THE PATTERN OUT WEST
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN TROFFING DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST COAST SENDING MOISTURE UP THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SW AND WEST TEXAS. GFS IS STRONGER ON A TROF NEAR CALIFORNIA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...WE APPEAR
TO BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  94  70  94  71 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  95  72  96  72 /  -   10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  94  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  74  98  75 /  -   10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  95  73 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  95  71  96  70 /  -   10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  93  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  94  73 /   0  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  95  74 /  -   10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  96  73  96  73 /  -   10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...YURA
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291930
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY HOWEVER TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT...OR
SUNDAY...BUT ANY LIGHT RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FALLING MAINLY OUT OF
MID CLOUDS AND WIND UP AS VIRGA. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW TRACE AMOUNTS. BIGGER IMPACT WILL JUST COME FROM THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS WEEK...STAYING
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS.  THE TROF AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX
DOWN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO GIVE AS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. AM INCLUDING LOWER END
POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL ZONES STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS
IS A RESULT OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. THE PATTERN OUT WEST
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN TROFFING DEVELOPS ON
THE WEST COAST SENDING MOISTURE UP THROUGH MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SW AND WEST TEXAS. GFS IS STRONGER ON A TROF NEAR CALIFORNIA BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...WE APPEAR
TO BE STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TROF
TO THE WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  94  70  94  71 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  95  72  96  72 /  -   10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  94  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  74  98  75 /  -   10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  95  73 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  95  71  96  70 /  -   10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  93  72  94  72 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  94  73  94  73 /   0  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  95  73  95  74 /  -   10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  96  73  96  73 /  -   10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...YURA
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291714
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291714
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291714
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291714
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY. SHOULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 291129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW 10+ KFT CEILINGS CREEPING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS DECK TO CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND RESULT IN A BKN DECK OF VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER MID DAY. OTHERWISE...NO CATEGORY
CHANGES EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290933
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN





000
FXUS64 KEWX 290933
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
433 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INCLUDING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE WEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH...AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...AS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. EAST OF I-35 DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POSSIBILITY. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
ECMWF...NAM12...AND 4KM NMM/NMM AND TT WRF DO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY THAN HIGHS YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...AND INTO THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE LOW
WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS GENERAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NUDGES BACK
TO THE EAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  73  95  74  96 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  70  93  71  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  71  93  72  96 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  73  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  70  93  70  96 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  71  93  72  95 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  73  93  74  95 /   0  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  72  93  73  97 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN




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