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000
FXUS62 KFFC 311945
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TAP AS LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
REGIME IS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH REMAINS NW OF THE AREA DESPITE SOME
WEAK INVERTED RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IMPINGING MORE EAST
FLOW INTO THE NE CWA. GREATEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GA ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS TO MACON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION /PERHAPS A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH/ FOR SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHEAST /MORESO THE NAM/ WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THUS
FAR...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COULD BE
DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP
THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR CLIMO NORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON DEWPOINTS AS WHAT HAS TRENDED RECENTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL LONG TERM TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE AVOIDED
MAKING ANY WHOLESCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR BETTER NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND TO USE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DATA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     59  88  60  88 /  10   5  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    64  93  64  94 /   5   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        75  94  73  95 /  30  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     69  92  69  92 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           73  92  71  95 /  30  40  20  20
ROME            62  94  63  93 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         74  91  73  93 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311945
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TAP AS LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
REGIME IS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH REMAINS NW OF THE AREA DESPITE SOME
WEAK INVERTED RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IMPINGING MORE EAST
FLOW INTO THE NE CWA. GREATEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GA ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS TO MACON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION /PERHAPS A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH/ FOR SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHEAST /MORESO THE NAM/ WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THUS
FAR...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COULD BE
DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP
THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR CLIMO NORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON DEWPOINTS AS WHAT HAS TRENDED RECENTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL LONG TERM TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE AVOIDED
MAKING ANY WHOLESCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR BETTER NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND TO USE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DATA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     59  88  60  88 /  10   5  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    64  93  64  94 /   5   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        75  94  73  95 /  30  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     69  92  69  92 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           73  92  71  95 /  30  40  20  20
ROME            62  94  63  93 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         74  91  73  93 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311804
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  20   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  30  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /  10   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  30  20  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311804
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  20   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  30  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /  10   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  30  20  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311804
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  20   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  30  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /  10   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  30  20  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311804
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  20   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  30  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /  10   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /  10   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  30  20  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311502
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311502
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311502
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311502
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DELAY MIDDAY POP TRENDS PER RECENT HIGH RES
GUIDANCE AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WILL SEE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION. ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
GA COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO DAYTIME TRENDS MAINLY
WITH A BIT LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN IN THE NORTH ACROSS THE
POST FRONTAL REGIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
NNW WINDS AT ATL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNE THIS MORNING AND THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AROUND 12-13Z. BY THIS EVENING...ANOTHER WIND SHIFT
TO THE NNW SHOULD OCCUR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WINDS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MCN TO CSG AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310741
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WASH
OUT...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND WHILE SOME OF
THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FURTHER SOUTH...IT WONT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. GIVEN CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. MUCAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON CLIMB AROUND 2000 J/KG SO
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER.

THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND THE
DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE BETTER POPS ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EVEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES/ FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS POINT...THE AREA OF 105
VALUES IS SPOTTY AND ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS BELOW THE FORECAST SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS AT ATL. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THIS AND TIMING...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA ARE AT MCN
AND CSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  69  94  70 /  10   5  10  10
ATLANTA         90  72  92  71 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  60  87  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  64  92  66 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  73  94  73 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     89  70  91  70 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  72  93  71 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            92  63  93  67 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  75  93  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310540 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS AT ATL. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THIS AND TIMING...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA ARE AT MCN
AND CSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  70  93  72 /  10   5  10  20
ATLANTA         90  72  90  73 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  62  85  61 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  67  91  69 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     88  70  90  72 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            90  67  91  68 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  20
VIDALIA         93  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310540 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS AT ATL. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THIS AND TIMING...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA ARE AT MCN
AND CSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  70  93  72 /  10   5  10  20
ATLANTA         90  72  90  73 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  62  85  61 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  67  91  69 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     88  70  90  72 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            90  67  91  68 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  20
VIDALIA         93  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310540 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION AND
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS AT ATL. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THIS AND TIMING...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND DIRECTION. TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA ARE AT MCN
AND CSG.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  70  93  72 /  10   5  10  20
ATLANTA         90  72  90  73 /  20   5  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  62  85  61 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    90  67  91  69 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        93  74  92  74 /  40  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     88  70  90  72 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           94  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  20
ROME            90  67  91  68 /   5   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  90  70  91  71 /  20  10  10  20
VIDALIA         93  75  92  74 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310031
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
831 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS
SETTING THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING
AROUND THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP
UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THU AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY SO AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT
OF THE E TO NE BUT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE NW FRI AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS WITH SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  91  70  93 /  30  10   5  20
ATLANTA         74  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  61  85 /  20  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        75  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  88  71  90 /  30   5   5  10
MACON           75  94  73  93 /  40  40  20  30
ROME            69  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  90  69  91 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         76  93  74  92 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310031
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
831 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS
SETTING THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING
AROUND THE AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP
UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THU AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY SO AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT
OF THE E TO NE BUT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE NW FRI AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS WITH SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  91  70  93 /  30  10   5  20
ATLANTA         74  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  61  85 /  20  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        75  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  88  71  90 /  30   5   5  10
MACON           75  94  73  93 /  40  40  20  30
ROME            69  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  90  69  91 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         76  93  74  92 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED
ADDRESSING THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME DEVIATION TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  91  70  93 /  30  10   5  20
ATLANTA         74  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  61  85 /  20  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        75  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  88  71  90 /  30   5   5  10
MACON           75  94  73  93 /  40  40  20  30
ROME            69  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  90  69  91 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         76  93  74  92 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED
ADDRESSING THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME DEVIATION TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  91  70  93 /  30  10   5  20
ATLANTA         74  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  61  85 /  20  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        75  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  88  71  90 /  30   5   5  10
MACON           75  94  73  93 /  40  40  20  30
ROME            69  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  90  69  91 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         76  93  74  92 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
FRONTAL FORCING. WHILE CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG EXIST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WITH THAT IN MIND...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER SUNSET FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...THOUGH SOME WILL LIKELY LINGER IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE STRONG
IN THIS VICINITY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON FRIDAY AS NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS FILTER AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO ON FRIDAY.

RW

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY... WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A
MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW... BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED
AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM NORTH GEORGIA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RELIEF
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED
ADDRESSING THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME DEVIATION TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  91  70  93 /  30  10   5  20
ATLANTA         74  90  71  90 /  30  10   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  85  61  85 /  20  10   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        75  93  73  92 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  88  71  90 /  30   5   5  10
MACON           75  94  73  93 /  40  40  20  30
ROME            69  90  66  91 /  20  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  72  90  69  91 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         76  93  74  92 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. HI- RES MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY BEFORE...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BETTER FOLLOW THIS
TREND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED
ADDRESSING THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME DEVIATION TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301811
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
211 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. HI- RES MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY BEFORE...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BETTER FOLLOW THIS
TREND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
IN ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. A TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED
ADDRESSING THIS THUNDER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME DEVIATION TO AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301425
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. HI- RES MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY BEFORE...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BETTER FOLLOW THIS
TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL TEMPO THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301425
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. HI- RES MODELS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY BEFORE...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TO BETTER FOLLOW THIS
TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL TEMPO THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301128 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL TEMPO THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301128 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL TEMPO THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301128 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL TEMPO THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 AT THE TAF SITES
DURING THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300742
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT
HAS SET UP ACROSS THAT REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DOWN THERE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS HEATING HELPS TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DO WE SEE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING SUFFICIENT DRY
AIR INTO THAT AREA BEFORE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THIS SEEMS A
BIT PREMATURE. I WILL BE CARRYING A GRADIENT IN MY POP GRIDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT I AM GOING TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE TENNESSEE LINE. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. I HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW LIKELY EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE WEAK EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON... MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HOW FAR SOUTH THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLES BY FRIDAY REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON
SOUTHWARD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH TODAY AS
WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 ACROSS SOME OF OUR
CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
KEEPING THE AREA JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINING STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY... WITH A DRIER
NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A MOSTLY DRY... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD RAIN CHANCES DOWN THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME... THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TO MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW...
BUT STILL SHOW A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH WEAK
WIND SHEAR SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS RELIEF MAY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY... BUT APPEARS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 AT THE TAF SITES
DURING THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  91  69 /  40  30  20  10
ATLANTA         92  72  90  71 /  40  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     88  64  87  61 /  40  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    92  70  91  67 /  40  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        94  75  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     92  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  10
MACON           94  74  93  72 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            92  69  91  66 /  30  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  91  68 /  50  30  20  10
VIDALIA         95  76  93  74 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300521 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 AT THE TAF SITES
DURING THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300521 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 AT THE TAF SITES
DURING THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300033
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
833 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS
THE SUN IS SETTING THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THU AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST BUT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE NW SHORTLY
AFTER 14Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUST IN AND AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT THU AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE AIRFIELD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT AND FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURS
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON WINDS AND HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291432
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015


.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA. FORECAST GRIDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
ACTIVITY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...HEAT ADVISORY STILL WILL
BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1300 EDT GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291125 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CARRY
TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING
THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING
THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290743
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE REGION UNDER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO ALL SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO
ALABAMA. NOT SURE HOW STRONG OR EFFECTIVE THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...SO ALTHOUGH NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105
ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES TODAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO LINE.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT STALLS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO SOUTH GA OR NORTH FL BY EARLY MONDAY.
THIS SUGGEST DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY... THEN MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT... SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND... WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA... AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL
TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY
HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING
THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         92  75  92  75 /  40  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     87  69  89  66 /  40  30  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  95  76 /  40  30  50  30
GAINESVILLE     91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           95  74  94  76 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            92  71  93  71 /  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  92  74 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         95  75  96  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290542 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING THE 20Z-00Z
TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290542 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z...MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY. MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 DURING THE 20Z-00Z
TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 282358
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BENIGN AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE
MODERATE AND MID-LEVELS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA.

CWFA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS BACK EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...EACH ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS TO RAISE POPS
IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS THE SUN IS SETTING. THERE
AREA A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND THE ATL AREA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTIVE POP UPS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WED
AFTERNOON. WINDS NW AT 10KT OR LESS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER GUST IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOULD BE THE SAME WED AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  89 /  30  40  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     74  90  74  91 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            73  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         75  96  75  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





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