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000
FXUS62 KFFC 242342
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.EVENING UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MAINLY SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING... THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT COULD HEAR SOME
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
6-7 AM IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

HVY RAIN LIKELY SAT MORNING AS WELL BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
ONLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THRU SUN...WHICH EVEN WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTH GA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...UPPER FORCING LIFTS WILL AWAY. MODELS VERY RETICENT ON
PRODUCING ANY QPF SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BUT
ADDED SMALL POPS FOR FAR SRN AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP FOR THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSISTENCY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT DRY PERIOD. RAIN RETURNS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE
CLEARING THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 09Z TONIGHT... THEN MVFR CIGS
SPREAD INTO MOST TAF SITES WITH AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS BY 08-10Z. THE
SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 10-15Z SAT. THIS FIRST ROUND
SHOULD PUSH EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON... WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION... THIS TIME WITH THUNDERSTORMS... EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z
SAT AND 03Z SUN. CURRENT LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BACK SSE BY 00-01Z AND
HOLD SSE THRU AROUND 16-18Z SAT...THEN VEERS SW AROUND 7-9KTS AND
HOLDS THERE THRU SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  63  82 /  50 100  30  10
ATLANTA         58  76  65  80 /  50  90  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     50  67  59  72 /  70 100  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  76  63  78 /  70  90  50  10
COLUMBUS        60  80  67  85 /  30  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     54  68  62  77 /  60 100  40  10
MACON           57  79  67  85 /  30  60  20  10
ROME            57  77  62  78 /  70  90  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  57  78  64  82 /  50  70  30  10
VIDALIA         58  82  70  86 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 242342
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.EVENING UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MAINLY SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING... THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT COULD HEAR SOME
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
6-7 AM IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

HVY RAIN LIKELY SAT MORNING AS WELL BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
ONLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THRU SUN...WHICH EVEN WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTH GA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...UPPER FORCING LIFTS WILL AWAY. MODELS VERY RETICENT ON
PRODUCING ANY QPF SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BUT
ADDED SMALL POPS FOR FAR SRN AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP FOR THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSISTENCY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT DRY PERIOD. RAIN RETURNS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE
CLEARING THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 09Z TONIGHT... THEN MVFR CIGS
SPREAD INTO MOST TAF SITES WITH AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS BY 08-10Z. THE
SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 10-15Z SAT. THIS FIRST ROUND
SHOULD PUSH EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON... WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION... THIS TIME WITH THUNDERSTORMS... EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z
SAT AND 03Z SUN. CURRENT LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BACK SSE BY 00-01Z AND
HOLD SSE THRU AROUND 16-18Z SAT...THEN VEERS SW AROUND 7-9KTS AND
HOLDS THERE THRU SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  63  82 /  50 100  30  10
ATLANTA         58  76  65  80 /  50  90  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     50  67  59  72 /  70 100  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  76  63  78 /  70  90  50  10
COLUMBUS        60  80  67  85 /  30  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     54  68  62  77 /  60 100  40  10
MACON           57  79  67  85 /  30  60  20  10
ROME            57  77  62  78 /  70  90  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  57  78  64  82 /  50  70  30  10
VIDALIA         58  82  70  86 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 242342
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
742 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.EVENING UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MAINLY SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING... THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT COULD HEAR SOME
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
6-7 AM IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

HVY RAIN LIKELY SAT MORNING AS WELL BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
ONLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THRU SUN...WHICH EVEN WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTH GA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...UPPER FORCING LIFTS WILL AWAY. MODELS VERY RETICENT ON
PRODUCING ANY QPF SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BUT
ADDED SMALL POPS FOR FAR SRN AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP FOR THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSISTENCY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT DRY PERIOD. RAIN RETURNS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE
CLEARING THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 09Z TONIGHT... THEN MVFR CIGS
SPREAD INTO MOST TAF SITES WITH AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS BY 08-10Z. THE
SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 10-15Z SAT. THIS FIRST ROUND
SHOULD PUSH EAST BY SAT AFTERNOON... WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION... THIS TIME WITH THUNDERSTORMS... EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z
SAT AND 03Z SUN. CURRENT LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BACK SSE BY 00-01Z AND
HOLD SSE THRU AROUND 16-18Z SAT...THEN VEERS SW AROUND 7-9KTS AND
HOLDS THERE THRU SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  63  82 /  50 100  30  10
ATLANTA         58  76  65  80 /  50  90  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     50  67  59  72 /  70 100  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  76  63  78 /  70  90  50  10
COLUMBUS        60  80  67  85 /  30  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     54  68  62  77 /  60 100  40  10
MACON           57  79  67  85 /  30  60  20  10
ROME            57  77  62  78 /  70  90  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  57  78  64  82 /  50  70  30  10
VIDALIA         58  82  70  86 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241855
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

HVY RAIN LIKELY SAT MORNING AS WELL BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
ONLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THRU SUN...WHICH EVEN WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTH GA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...UPPER FORCING LIFTS WILL AWAY. MODELS VERY RETICENT ON
PRODUCING ANY QPF SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BUT
ADDED SMALL POPS FOR FAR SRN AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP FOR THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSISTENCY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT DRY PERIOD. RAIN RETURNS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE
CLEARING THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  63  82 /  50 100  30  10
ATLANTA         58  76  65  80 /  50  90  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     50  67  59  72 /  70 100  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  76  63  78 /  70  90  50  10
COLUMBUS        60  80  67  85 /  30  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     54  68  62  77 /  60 100  40  10
MACON           57  79  67  85 /  30  60  20  10
ROME            57  77  62  78 /  70  90  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  57  78  64  82 /  50  70  30  10
VIDALIA         58  82  70  86 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 241855
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

HVY RAIN LIKELY SAT MORNING AS WELL BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
ONLY 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THRU SUN...WHICH EVEN WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTH GA SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...UPPER FORCING LIFTS WILL AWAY. MODELS VERY RETICENT ON
PRODUCING ANY QPF SUNDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BUT
ADDED SMALL POPS FOR FAR SRN AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP FOR THE
MID WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSISTENCY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/
WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT DRY PERIOD. RAIN RETURNS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE
CLEARING THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  70  63  82 /  50 100  30  10
ATLANTA         58  76  65  80 /  50  90  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     50  67  59  72 /  70 100  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  76  63  78 /  70  90  50  10
COLUMBUS        60  80  67  85 /  30  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     54  68  62  77 /  60 100  40  10
MACON           57  79  67  85 /  30  60  20  10
ROME            57  77  62  78 /  70  90  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  57  78  64  82 /  50  70  30  10
VIDALIA         58  82  70  86 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241837 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SPELLING IN 1ST PARA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.UPDATE...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

PLEASE REMAIN VIGILANT OF LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY REINFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         73  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     70  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    74  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        78  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     70  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           75  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            74  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241837 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SPELLING IN 1ST PARA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.UPDATE...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY *INCREASE* IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

PLEASE REMAIN VIGILANT OF LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY REINFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         73  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     70  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    74  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        78  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     70  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           75  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            74  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 241825 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.UPDATE...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FCST AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

PLEASE REMAIN VIGILANT OF LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY REINFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         73  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     70  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    74  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        78  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     70  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           75  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            74  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 241825 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.UPDATE...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FCST AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

PLEASE REMAIN VIGILANT OF LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY REINFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         73  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     70  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    74  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        78  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     70  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           75  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            74  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241825 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.UPDATE...
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SVR EVENT SAT. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STRONG OR SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT OR SAT MORNING APPEAR VERY LIMITED.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL GREATLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AS S TO SE FLOW ABOVE SFC INCREASE AND SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT...INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FCST AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS SAT 3PM-MIDNIGHT BEHIND MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA. PROGGED STP VALUES THE HIGHEST WE
CAN REMEMBER IN THE LAST 2-3 YEARS AND HAS WORKED WELL WITH
PREVIOUS HIGH END EVENTS. 12Z GFS HAS STP 4-6 FROM SRN AL TO NW
GA TO ERN TN AT 00Z SUN. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR WITH THIS
EVENT AND EVEN THO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOT THAT GREAT...0-1KM BULK
SHEAR ALSO IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS. THOMPSON ET AL 2003 HAD SHOWN
PREVIOUSLY THAT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR JUST AS HELPFUL AS 0-1KM SRH WHEN
PREDICTING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IF EVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
DEVELOPS ON STORM SCALE AND BOUNDARY WITH WEDGE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH ANY SUPERCELL...MODERATE TO LONG TRACK TORNADOES CANT BE
RULED OUT.

ALTHOUGH NOT ONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS ANALOGS /WHICH MAJORITY WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR REPORTS INCLUDING TORNADOES/...THIS EVENT
REMINDS ME OF 15 MARCH 2008 WHEN WARM FRONT HELP FOCUS PERIOD OF
PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS OVER NORTH GA AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...MOST
NOTABLE WAS POLK/BARTOW COUNTY EF3. LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW SCT
CONVECTION WHILE HIRES WINDOW AND BOTH OF OUR ARW LOCAL WRF MODELS
ALL SHOW VIGOROUS CONVECTION INITIATING BEHIND AREA OF SHRA AND
ELEVATED TSRA AROUND 22Z.

PLEASE REMAIN VIGILANT OF LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY REINFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 12Z WHEN WIDESPREAD SHRA MOVE IN.
TSRA NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 15Z AT THE EARLIEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ON EAST COMPONENT UNTIL AROUND 19Z WHEN THEY WILL BECOME SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         73  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     70  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    74  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        78  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     70  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           75  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            74  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY RE-INFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE SECOND BATCH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY 12Z SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         72  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     69  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           74  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            73  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 241135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY RE-INFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE SECOND BATCH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY 12Z SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         72  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     69  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           74  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            73  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 241135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY RE-INFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE SECOND BATCH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY 12Z SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         72  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     69  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           74  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            73  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 241135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY RE-INFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... WINDS SHOULD SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP ON
SATURDAY. THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE SECOND BATCH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. BOTH SYSTEMS COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY 12Z SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         72  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     69  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           74  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            73  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240724
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY RE-INFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z
THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         72  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     69  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           74  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            73  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240724
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GA LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COPIOUS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

PER USUAL...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON EXACTLY HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH. FORECASTED BL WINDS ARE 15 TO
20KT...SO DO THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME DECENT
PROGRESS NORTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NORTHERN METRO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THINKING THAT THE MCS COULD POTENTIALLY RE-INFORCE THE
WEDGING IN THE NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT
WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY DECENT. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

SO...TO SUM IT UP...THERE SHOULD BE TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. THE MORNING ROUND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. THE
AFTERNOON EVENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH ROUNDS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IF YOU HAVE PLANS FOR SATURDAY...PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING INFORMATION AND ANY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY PW VALUES ARE ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF. QPF FORECASTS RANGE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF IN THE EAST. TOTAL FORECASTED QPF SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CARRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30KTS...BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THOUGH...MOISTURE ONLY
LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT SO WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE IT STILL IS A
FEW DAYS OUT THOUGH...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TIMING TO
CHANGE. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH...WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHORT DRY PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SFC LOW SLIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE GULF COAST. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER SLIDE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CLEARS OUT THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

11


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL APPROACH VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE DURATION OF
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA AT THIS TIME FOR A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z
THIS MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  55  70  62 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         72  59  75  65 /   5  40 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  51  65  58 /   0  60 100  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  56  75  63 /   0  60 100  50
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  67 /   0  20 100  30
GAINESVILLE     69  55  67  61 /   0  60 100  50
MACON           74  57  77  66 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            73  56  75  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  65 /   0  30 100  40
VIDALIA         75  59  79  69 /   0  10 100  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 240603
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z THIS
MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  53  71  63 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         74  60  75  66 /   5  40 100  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  52  69  58 /   0  60 100  60
CARTERSVILLE    74  57  76  64 /   0  60 100  40
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  65 /   0  20 100  20
GAINESVILLE     70  55  69  63 /   0  60 100  60
MACON           75  57  80  65 /   0  20 100  30
ROME            73  56  76  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  64 /   0  30 100  30
VIDALIA         76  59  80  68 /   0  10 100  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 240603
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z THIS
MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  53  71  63 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         74  60  75  66 /   5  40 100  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  52  69  58 /   0  60 100  60
CARTERSVILLE    74  57  76  64 /   0  60 100  40
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  65 /   0  20 100  20
GAINESVILLE     70  55  69  63 /   0  60 100  60
MACON           75  57  80  65 /   0  20 100  30
ROME            73  56  76  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  64 /   0  30 100  30
VIDALIA         76  59  80  68 /   0  10 100  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240603
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z THIS
MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  53  71  63 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         74  60  75  66 /   5  40 100  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  52  69  58 /   0  60 100  60
CARTERSVILLE    74  57  76  64 /   0  60 100  40
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  65 /   0  20 100  20
GAINESVILLE     70  55  69  63 /   0  60 100  60
MACON           75  57  80  65 /   0  20 100  30
ROME            73  56  76  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  64 /   0  30 100  30
VIDALIA         76  59  80  68 /   0  10 100  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 240603
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z THIS
MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  53  71  63 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         74  60  75  66 /   5  40 100  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  52  69  58 /   0  60 100  60
CARTERSVILLE    74  57  76  64 /   0  60 100  40
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  65 /   0  20 100  20
GAINESVILLE     70  55  69  63 /   0  60 100  60
MACON           75  57  80  65 /   0  20 100  30
ROME            73  56  76  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  64 /   0  30 100  30
VIDALIA         76  59  80  68 /   0  10 100  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 232353
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANY PATCHES OF RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF ATL... AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT CSG OR MCN AT THIS TIME.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS ON
FRI...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE MID LEVEL RANGE. WINDS WILL BE NW TO
NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... THEN VEER NE BY 10-12Z FRI...
THEN SE FRI AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 7KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  72  53  71 /   5  10  80  90
ATLANTA         50  74  60  75 /  10  20  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     38  69  52  69 /   0  10  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    41  74  57  76 /   5  20  80  90
COLUMBUS        55  77  61  79 /  30  20  60  80
GAINESVILLE     46  70  55  69 /   0  10  80  90
MACON           49  75  57  80 /  20  10  50  80
ROME            41  73  56  76 /   5  30  80  90
PEACHTREE CITY  46  74  58  77 /  10  20  70  80
VIDALIA         55  76  59  80 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 232353
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANY PATCHES OF RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF ATL... AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT CSG OR MCN AT THIS TIME.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS ON
FRI...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE MID LEVEL RANGE. WINDS WILL BE NW TO
NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... THEN VEER NE BY 10-12Z FRI...
THEN SE FRI AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 7KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  72  53  71 /   5  10  80  90
ATLANTA         50  74  60  75 /  10  20  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     38  69  52  69 /   0  10  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    41  74  57  76 /   5  20  80  90
COLUMBUS        55  77  61  79 /  30  20  60  80
GAINESVILLE     46  70  55  69 /   0  10  80  90
MACON           49  75  57  80 /  20  10  50  80
ROME            41  73  56  76 /   5  30  80  90
PEACHTREE CITY  46  74  58  77 /  10  20  70  80
VIDALIA         55  76  59  80 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  72  53  71 /   5  10  80  90
ATLANTA         50  74  60  75 /  10  20  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     38  69  52  69 /   0  10  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    41  74  57  76 /   5  20  80  90
COLUMBUS        55  77  61  79 /  30  20  60  80
GAINESVILLE     46  70  55  69 /   0  10  80  90
MACON           49  75  57  80 /  20  10  50  80
ROME            41  73  56  76 /   5  30  80  90
PEACHTREE CITY  46  74  58  77 /  10  20  70  80
VIDALIA         55  76  59  80 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  72  53  71 /   5  10  80  90
ATLANTA         50  74  60  75 /  10  20  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     38  69  52  69 /   0  10  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    41  74  57  76 /   5  20  80  90
COLUMBUS        55  77  61  79 /  30  20  60  80
GAINESVILLE     46  70  55  69 /   0  10  80  90
MACON           49  75  57  80 /  20  10  50  80
ROME            41  73  56  76 /   5  30  80  90
PEACHTREE CITY  46  74  58  77 /  10  20  70  80
VIDALIA         55  76  59  80 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  72  53  71 /   5  10  80  90
ATLANTA         50  74  60  75 /  10  20  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     38  69  52  69 /   0  10  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    41  74  57  76 /   5  20  80  90
COLUMBUS        55  77  61  79 /  30  20  60  80
GAINESVILLE     46  70  55  69 /   0  10  80  90
MACON           49  75  57  80 /  20  10  50  80
ROME            41  73  56  76 /   5  30  80  90
PEACHTREE CITY  46  74  58  77 /  10  20  70  80
VIDALIA         55  76  59  80 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  72  53  71 /   5  10  80  90
ATLANTA         50  74  60  75 /  10  20  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     38  69  52  69 /   0  10  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    41  74  57  76 /   5  20  80  90
COLUMBUS        55  77  61  79 /  30  20  60  80
GAINESVILLE     46  70  55  69 /   0  10  80  90
MACON           49  75  57  80 /  20  10  50  80
ROME            41  73  56  76 /   5  30  80  90
PEACHTREE CITY  46  74  58  77 /  10  20  70  80
VIDALIA         55  76  59  80 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231710
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  80
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  20  80
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   0   0  10  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  20  80
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  20  20  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  80
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  20  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /   5   5  30  80
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  20  70
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231710
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  80
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  20  80
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   0   0  10  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  20  80
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  20  20  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  80
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  20  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /   5   5  30  80
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  20  70
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231710
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  80
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  20  80
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   0   0  10  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  20  80
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  20  20  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  80
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  20  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /   5   5  30  80
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  20  70
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231710
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AL IS PROGGED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF CSG/MCN BUT AT THIS TIME
ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENT.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  80
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  20  80
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   0   0  10  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  20  80
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  20  20  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  80
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  20  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /   5   5  30  80
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  20  70
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE AND
CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A
SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE AND
CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A
SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE AND
CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A
SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231123
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
723 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE AND
CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A
SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230740
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME FEW CU AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ANY CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230740
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME FEW CU AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ANY CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230740
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME FEW CU AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ANY CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230740
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA. ALL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED...FOR NOW.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE...AND REMOVED ANY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OLD FLORIDA BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MORE INTO
SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME FEW CU AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ANY CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  72  56 /  10   5  10  60
ATLANTA         70  50  72  59 /  10  10  10  60
BLAIRSVILLE     62  40  69  53 /   5   0  10  60
CARTERSVILLE    67  44  72  58 /   5   5  10  70
COLUMBUS        78  55  77  62 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     68  47  69  56 /   5   0  10  60
MACON           77  52  75  59 /  20  10  10  50
ROME            67  44  72  58 /  10  10  10  70
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  73  58 /  10  10  10  60
VIDALIA         80  56  75  61 /  30  10   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230530
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/

LATE EVENING UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH GA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED
EAST...AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME FEW CU AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ANY CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  46  72  56 /  10   5  10  70
ATLANTA         72  51  72  60 /  10  10  10  80
BLAIRSVILLE     63  38  69  52 /   5   0  10  80
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  70  57 /   5   5  10  80
COLUMBUS        77  55  78  63 /  30  10  10  80
GAINESVILLE     69  48  69  56 /   5   0  10  80
MACON           77  51  76  59 /  20  10  10  60
ROME            70  43  69  57 /  10  10  10  80
PEACHTREE CITY  74  48  72  59 /  10  10  10  80
VIDALIA         82  59  78  61 /  30  10   5  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230530
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/

LATE EVENING UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH GA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED
EAST...AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME FEW CU AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND ANY CIGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 5KFT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A SWITCH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  46  72  56 /  10   5  10  70
ATLANTA         72  51  72  60 /  10  10  10  80
BLAIRSVILLE     63  38  69  52 /   5   0  10  80
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  70  57 /   5   5  10  80
COLUMBUS        77  55  78  63 /  30  10  10  80
GAINESVILLE     69  48  69  56 /   5   0  10  80
MACON           77  51  76  59 /  20  10  10  60
ROME            70  43  69  57 /  10  10  10  80
PEACHTREE CITY  74  48  72  59 /  10  10  10  80
VIDALIA         82  59  78  61 /  30  10   5  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230332
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.LATE EVENING UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH GA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED
EAST...AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY 03Z...THEN TEMPO -SHRA BETWEEN 08-
12Z TONIGHT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING CURRENT WEST WINDS
TO SHIFT NW AROUND 08-09Z THU... THEN BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z THU.
WILL HOLD MID CLOUDS IN ON THU AS AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED
IN SOME MODELS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -SHRA. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230332
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.LATE EVENING UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALMOST DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH GA
LATE THIS EVENING. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED
EAST...AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND HWO TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY 03Z...THEN TEMPO -SHRA BETWEEN 08-
12Z TONIGHT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING CURRENT WEST WINDS
TO SHIFT NW AROUND 08-09Z THU... THEN BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z THU.
WILL HOLD MID CLOUDS IN ON THU AS AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED
IN SOME MODELS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -SHRA. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 222348
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA THIS EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AL AND NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TRAVERSE ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTH GA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIRES
MODELS HOLD THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF ATLANTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR DOES SAG AT LEAST SHOWERS INTO THE ATLANTA
AREA SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA BETWEEN 3-5 AM THU MORNING.
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 400-800 MUCAPE AND 20-25KT 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR... WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS MOVING
INTO MAINLY NW AND NORTH CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING... WITH SMALL
HAIL... FREQUENT LTG... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NORTH GA
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CURRENT STORMS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY 03Z...THEN TEMPO -SHRA BETWEEN 08-
12Z TONIGHT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING CURRENT WEST WINDS
TO SHIFT NW AROUND 08-09Z THU... THEN BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z THU.
WILL HOLD MID CLOUDS IN ON THU AS AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED
IN SOME MODELS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -SHRA. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 222348
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA THIS EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AL AND NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TRAVERSE ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTH GA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIRES
MODELS HOLD THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF ATLANTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR DOES SAG AT LEAST SHOWERS INTO THE ATLANTA
AREA SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA BETWEEN 3-5 AM THU MORNING.
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 400-800 MUCAPE AND 20-25KT 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR... WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS MOVING
INTO MAINLY NW AND NORTH CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING... WITH SMALL
HAIL... FREQUENT LTG... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NORTH GA
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CURRENT STORMS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY 03Z...THEN TEMPO -SHRA BETWEEN 08-
12Z TONIGHT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING CURRENT WEST WINDS
TO SHIFT NW AROUND 08-09Z THU... THEN BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z THU.
WILL HOLD MID CLOUDS IN ON THU AS AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED
IN SOME MODELS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -SHRA. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221837
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
PUT IN THE TAF AND WILL GO WITH SHRA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THURSDAY WITH MIXING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221837
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
PUT IN THE TAF AND WILL GO WITH SHRA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THURSDAY WITH MIXING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221727
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
PUT IN THE TAF AND WILL GO WITH SHRA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THURSDAY WITH MIXING.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  10  20  30   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   5  30  40  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  20  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  20  30   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  40   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221727
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
PUT IN THE TAF AND WILL GO WITH SHRA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THURSDAY WITH MIXING.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  10  20  30   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   5  30  40  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  20  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  20  30   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  40   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221727
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
127 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
PUT IN THE TAF AND WILL GO WITH SHRA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS THURSDAY WITH MIXING.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /  10  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  10  20  30   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   5  30  40  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  20  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  20  30   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  40   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221125
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH
INTRODUCTION OF BKN060 IN THE TAF AS WELL AS PROB30 FOR SHRA.
WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /   5  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   0  30  50  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  30  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  30   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221125
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH
INTRODUCTION OF BKN060 IN THE TAF AS WELL AS PROB30 FOR SHRA.
WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /   5  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   0  30  50  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  30  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  30   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220735
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /   5  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   0  30  50  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  30  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  30   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220735
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /   5  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   0  30  50  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  30  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  30   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220735
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /   5  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   0  30  50  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  30  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  30   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220735
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER WITH ITS CENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIGHT
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. UPSTREAM...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM NOTED FROM SW OHIO THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
MISSOURI WITH SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
THIS FEATURE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT
THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN MEAN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP GENERATION LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
UPON HOW CONVECTIVE IN NATURE LINE BECOMES WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH EVEN MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO
GET UP TO 750 J/KG. THERE IS SOME 50 TO 60 KTS SFC TO 500 MB BULK
SHEAR AND STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FOR PARTICLE SEPARATION SO IF
STORMS CAN GET GOING...HAIL WILL BE OF A CONCERN GIVEN -18C 500MB
TEMPS. MARGINAL WIND THREAT WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THIS AND
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY
GET HIGHER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...THUS POTENTIALLY DRIVING UP
CAPE VALUES.

FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ATLANTA AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD FOR THURSDAY AS MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH. CAPE VALUES ACTUALLY NOT AS HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THU
AFTERNOON AS THEY ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR NORTH GA. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP TO 1.5
INCHES.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  48 /   5  20  30   5
ATLANTA         77  55  70  50 /   5  30  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     72  44  67  42 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
COLUMBUS        81  59  80  55 /   0  30  50  10
GAINESVILLE     76  52  71  47 /  10  30  20   5
MACON           81  57  81  52 /   5  20  40   5
ROME            77  49  69  46 /  20  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  78  53  75  48 /   5  30  30   5
VIDALIA         83  62  83  56 /   0  20  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH AFFECT ON CURRENT PROJECTED LOWS...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AND TWEAK LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING IF
CLOUDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS NICE
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. /39


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FEEL
A MIX OF THE NAM/GFS IS MORE REALISTIC AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS HITTING THE GROUND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT AND THEREFORE TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
HAD TO INCREASE THE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE IS
MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO
THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TIMING.
STILL...BOTH WOULD INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH QUICKLY...ENDING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER LINGERING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE CONTINUING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS I HAVE ONCE
AGAIN GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  56  72  49 /  10  30  30  10
ATLANTA         76  56  70  52 /  10  30  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     68  50  65  43 /  30  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    75  54  68  47 /  20  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        80  61  78  57 /   5  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     72  55  67  49 /  20  40  20  10
MACON           80  56  77  54 /  10  20  30  10
ROME            75  53  67  46 /  30  40  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  77  55  72  50 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         81  62  80  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH AFFECT ON CURRENT PROJECTED LOWS...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AND TWEAK LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING IF
CLOUDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS NICE
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. /39


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FEEL
A MIX OF THE NAM/GFS IS MORE REALISTIC AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS HITTING THE GROUND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT AND THEREFORE TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
HAD TO INCREASE THE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE IS
MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO
THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TIMING.
STILL...BOTH WOULD INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH QUICKLY...ENDING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER LINGERING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE CONTINUING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS I HAVE ONCE
AGAIN GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  56  72  49 /  10  30  30  10
ATLANTA         76  56  70  52 /  10  30  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     68  50  65  43 /  30  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    75  54  68  47 /  20  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        80  61  78  57 /   5  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     72  55  67  49 /  20  40  20  10
MACON           80  56  77  54 /  10  20  30  10
ROME            75  53  67  46 /  30  40  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  77  55  72  50 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         81  62  80  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH AFFECT ON CURRENT PROJECTED LOWS...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AND TWEAK LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING IF
CLOUDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS NICE
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. /39


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FEEL
A MIX OF THE NAM/GFS IS MORE REALISTIC AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS HITTING THE GROUND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT AND THEREFORE TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
HAD TO INCREASE THE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE IS
MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO
THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TIMING.
STILL...BOTH WOULD INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH QUICKLY...ENDING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER LINGERING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE CONTINUING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS I HAVE ONCE
AGAIN GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  56  72  49 /  10  30  30  10
ATLANTA         76  56  70  52 /  10  30  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     68  50  65  43 /  30  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    75  54  68  47 /  20  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        80  61  78  57 /   5  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     72  55  67  49 /  20  40  20  10
MACON           80  56  77  54 /  10  20  30  10
ROME            75  53  67  46 /  30  40  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  77  55  72  50 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         81  62  80  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HAVE
TOO MUCH AFFECT ON CURRENT PROJECTED LOWS...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY AND TWEAK LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING IF
CLOUDS WARRANT. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS NICE
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. /39


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FEEL
A MIX OF THE NAM/GFS IS MORE REALISTIC AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS HITTING THE GROUND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT AND THEREFORE TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015/
HAD TO INCREASE THE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE IS
MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO
THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TIMING.
STILL...BOTH WOULD INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING IN
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
THROUGH QUICKLY...ENDING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER LINGERING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

WITH THE CONTINUING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS I HAVE ONCE
AGAIN GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUD DECK TO LOWER BY 06Z THU FOR ATL WITH INTRODUCTION OF BKN060
IN THE TAF. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE WITH LOW END GUSTS
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  56  72  49 /  10  30  30  10
ATLANTA         76  56  70  52 /  10  30  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     68  50  65  43 /  30  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    75  54  68  47 /  20  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        80  61  78  57 /   5  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     72  55  67  49 /  20  40  20  10
MACON           80  56  77  54 /  10  20  30  10
ROME            75  53  67  46 /  30  40  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  77  55  72  50 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         81  62  80  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





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