000
FXUS62 KFFC 240534 AAC
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RETURN TO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING POPS QUICKLY AFTER 03Z.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. AS OF
NOW...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.
31
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKER UPPER
RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE. NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL FOR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
01/BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO SKC BY THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS 5-10KT TO START THE
PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-15G20-25KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE
NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AT 07Z FOR ATL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 77 47 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 75 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 41 74 49 / 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 73 44 78 48 / 5 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 82 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 75 49 76 54 / 5 0 0 0
MACON 81 48 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 74 45 78 49 / 5 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 77 44 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 85 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 232351
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RETURN TO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING POPS QUICKLY AFTER 03Z.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. AS OF
NOW...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.
31
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKER UPPER
RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE. NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL FOR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
01/BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER GA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 78 47 80 / 5 0 0 0
ATLANTA 59 76 51 78 / 5 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 72 42 75 / 20 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 57 76 45 80 / 5 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 82 54 83 / 5 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 58 76 49 77 / 20 0 0 0
MACON 60 82 48 82 / 5 0 0 0
ROME 57 76 46 81 / 10 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 57 77 45 79 / 5 0 0 0
VIDALIA 66 86 56 83 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31
000
FXUS62 KFFC 231948
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RETURN TO FAR NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING POPS QUICKLY AFTER 03Z.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS. AS OF
NOW...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.
31
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND
FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKER UPPER
RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE. NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL FOR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
01/BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 12-16KT WITH GUSTS TO
22-26KT TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
/7-12KT/ OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 58 78 47 80 / 5 0 0 0
ATLANTA 59 76 51 78 / 5 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 54 72 42 75 / 20 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 57 76 45 80 / 5 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 82 54 83 / 5 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 58 76 49 77 / 20 0 0 0
MACON 60 82 48 82 / 5 0 0 0
ROME 57 76 46 81 / 10 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 57 77 45 79 / 5 0 0 0
VIDALIA 66 86 56 83 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31
000
FXUS62 KFFC 231539
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. HOURLY FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AND HAVE MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR NORTHERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN GA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. SOME
LINGERING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA TODAY BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...NORTH GA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 06Z. OTHERWISE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE STABLE
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY TODAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS WERE CLOSE
AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
41
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AND FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS N AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT
THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
COMPROMISE. NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL
FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR TODAY...AFTER SOME MVFR AND IFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF BY
14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15KT AFTER WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 58 80 46 / 20 5 0 0
ATLANTA 84 59 76 50 / 10 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 79 53 73 40 / 20 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 85 56 77 44 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 63 84 55 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 83 58 79 48 / 20 10 0 0
MACON 88 59 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 85 56 78 46 / 10 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 84 56 78 46 / 10 0 0 0
VIDALIA 88 65 87 56 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31
000
FXUS62 KFFC 231141
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN GA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. SOME
LINGERING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA TODAY BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...NORTH GA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 06Z. OTHERWISE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE STABLE
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY TODAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS WERE CLOSE
AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
41
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AND FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS N AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT
THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
COMPROMISE. NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL
FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR TODAY...AFTER SOME MVFR AND IFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF BY
14Z. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15KT AFTER WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 58 80 46 / 20 5 0 0
ATLANTA 84 59 76 50 / 10 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 79 53 73 40 / 20 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 85 56 77 44 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 63 84 55 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 83 58 79 48 / 20 10 0 0
MACON 88 59 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 85 56 78 46 / 10 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 84 56 78 46 / 10 0 0 0
VIDALIA 88 65 87 56 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 230800
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS OF GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN GA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. SOME
LINGERING DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS FOR THAT AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA TODAY BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...NORTH GA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 06Z. OTHERWISE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE STABLE
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY TODAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS WERE CLOSE
AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
41
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AND FOR THE MOST PART BASED ON THE GFS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS INDICATING A WETTER NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS N AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT
THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW POPS ACROSS N GA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT FORECAST FOR NOW AS A
COMPROMISE. NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR N GA. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. KEEPING POPS NIL
FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR LOW POPS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 6 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 6-12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED PAST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT ATHENS
AND MACON. SOME SCT TO BKN040 TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT040-050. MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR FOG EXPECTED UNTIL 14Z MAINLY FOR PDK...AHN...MCN. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST 10KT AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR FOG THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 86 58 80 46 / 20 5 0 0
ATLANTA 84 59 76 50 / 10 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 79 53 73 40 / 20 20 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 85 56 77 44 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 63 84 55 / 10 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 83 58 79 48 / 20 10 0 0
MACON 88 59 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
ROME 85 56 78 46 / 10 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 84 56 78 46 / 10 0 0 0
VIDALIA 88 65 87 56 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 230547 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS. APPEARS COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER ERN AL AND
WRN GA LOWER THAN MODEL FCSTS. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS. MLCAPE
PRETTY STOUT WITH VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20-30KTS. APPARENTLY FORCING AND LOCALIZED LIFT IS LACKING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GEORGIA.
FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED PAST ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT ATHENS
AND MACON. SOME SCT TO BKN040 TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT040-050. MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR FOG EXPECTED UNTIL 14Z MAINLY FOR PDK...AHN...MCN. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST 10KT AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR FOG THIS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 85 59 79 / 60 20 5 0
ATLANTA 66 83 59 76 / 70 10 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 78 54 71 / 70 20 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 64 83 57 76 / 70 10 5 0
COLUMBUS 68 89 63 82 / 70 10 5 0
GAINESVILLE 64 82 57 75 / 70 10 5 0
MACON 66 89 60 83 / 60 20 5 0
ROME 64 84 57 77 / 50 10 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 64 85 58 77 / 70 10 5 0
VIDALIA 68 89 65 88 / 40 20 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON
000
FXUS62 KFFC 222353 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS. APPEARS COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER ERN AL AND
WRN GA LOWER THAN MODEL FCSTS. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS. MLCAPE
PRETTY STOUT WITH VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 20-30KTS. APPARENTLY FORCING AND LOCALIZED LIFT IS LACKING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SNELSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GEORGIA.
FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.
31
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD TSRA DROPPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TEMPO TSRA BUT BASED ON TRENDS...MAY HAVE TO PULL THIS
OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIP SHOULD END OR BE EAST OF FCST
POINTS BY 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AFTER 07Z AND NW AFTER
SUNRISE. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG UNLESS PRECIP BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG FOR MOST SITES. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO 25KTS THURS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VERTICAL MIXING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON RADIATIONAL FOG THURS MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 85 59 79 / 60 20 5 0
ATLANTA 66 83 59 76 / 70 10 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 78 54 71 / 70 20 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 64 83 57 76 / 70 10 5 0
COLUMBUS 68 89 63 82 / 70 10 5 0
GAINESVILLE 64 82 57 75 / 70 10 5 0
MACON 66 89 60 83 / 60 20 5 0
ROME 64 84 57 77 / 50 10 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 64 85 58 77 / 70 10 5 0
VIDALIA 68 89 65 88 / 40 20 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SNELSON
000
FXUS62 KFFC 221950
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GEORGIA.
FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.
31
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GENERALLY TEMPO TS FOR THE ATL
AREA AND AHN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR TS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PREVAILING TS AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
IN 00-02Z. CSG AND MCN AREAS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY IMPACTED THIS
EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION LINE. OVERALL...ANTICIPATING VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME RESTRICTED VSBYS IN THE TS. AHN COULD SEE
SCT-BKN IFR 08-13Z WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. VRB GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN CONVECTION TODAY. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY G18-24KT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 85 59 79 / 60 20 5 0
ATLANTA 66 83 59 76 / 60 10 5 0
BLAIRSVILLE 61 78 54 71 / 60 20 10 0
CARTERSVILLE 63 83 57 76 / 60 10 5 0
COLUMBUS 68 89 63 82 / 60 10 5 0
GAINESVILLE 64 82 57 75 / 60 10 5 0
MACON 65 89 60 83 / 60 20 5 0
ROME 63 84 57 77 / 50 10 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 58 77 / 60 10 5 0
VIDALIA 68 89 65 88 / 40 20 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31
000
FXUS62 KFFC 221837
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ALABAMA
MAY REACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. THIS
COMBINED WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE TIMING OF
CONVECTION DIFFICULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WOULD SEEM TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
SEVERE WORDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FITS
WELL WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. DIMINISHING POPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME DRYING INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY BUT WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES...HAVE STAYED ON THE
WARM SIDE OF MAV/MET. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES MAY VARY MORE ACROSS
THE CWA.
41
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THERE
WILL BE WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
RAIN AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF
THE AREA IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY FOR OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS SKIRTING NE GA. THE
EUROPEAN MEANWHILE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER FAR N AND
E GA ON SUNDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND EVEN WILL
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE DRIER GFS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GENERALLY TEMPO TS FOR THE ATL
AREA AND AHN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR TS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PREVAILING TS AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
IN 00-02Z. CSG AND MCN AREAS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY IMPACTED THIS
EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION LINE. OVERALL...ANTICIPATING VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME RESTRICTED VSBYS IN THE TS. AHN COULD SEE
SCT-BKN IFR 08-13Z WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. VRB GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN CONVECTION TODAY. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY G18-24KT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 65 85 59 / 40 60 20 5
ATLANTA 86 66 83 59 / 50 60 10 5
BLAIRSVILLE 80 61 78 54 / 60 60 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 84 63 83 57 / 60 60 10 5
COLUMBUS 90 68 89 63 / 40 60 10 5
GAINESVILLE 85 64 82 57 / 70 60 10 5
MACON 90 65 89 60 / 50 60 20 5
ROME 84 63 84 57 / 70 50 10 5
PEACHTREE CITY 86 63 85 58 / 50 60 10 5
VIDALIA 88 68 89 65 / 30 40 20 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31
000
FXUS62 KFFC 221151
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ALABAMA
MAY REACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. THIS
COMBINED WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE TIMING OF
CONVECTION DIFFICULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WOULD SEEM TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
SEVERE WORDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FITS
WELL WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. DIMINISHING POPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME DRYING INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY BUT WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES...HAVE STAYED ON THE
WARM SIDE OF MAV/MET. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES MAY VARY MORE ACROSS
THE CWA.
41
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THERE
WILL BE WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
RAIN AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF
THE AREA IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY FOR OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS SKIRTING NE GA. THE
EUROPEAN MEANWHILE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER FAR N AND
E GA ON SUNDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND EVEN WILL
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE DRIER GFS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING VFR TODAY OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
MAY BE CONVECTION AROUND THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY BUT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES APPEARS TO BE 18Z
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL AROUND 02Z. VARIABLE TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10KT AFTER 14Z.
VARIABLE TO GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 65 87 59 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 86 66 85 60 / 50 40 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 80 61 80 55 / 60 60 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 84 63 84 57 / 60 60 30 20
COLUMBUS 90 67 89 63 / 30 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 85 65 83 57 / 50 50 30 20
MACON 90 65 89 61 / 30 30 30 10
ROME 84 63 85 57 / 60 60 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 86 62 86 59 / 40 30 30 20
VIDALIA 88 67 89 67 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 220800
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRAILING INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ALABAMA
MAY REACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY SUNRISE IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. THIS
COMBINED WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE TIMING OF
CONVECTION DIFFICULT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES WOULD SEEM TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
SEVERE WORDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FITS
WELL WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. DIMINISHING POPS OVERNIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME DRYING INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY BUT WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN
ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES...HAVE STAYED ON THE
WARM SIDE OF MAV/MET. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES MAY VARY MORE ACROSS
THE CWA.
41
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THERE
WILL BE WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
RAIN AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND MOSTLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF
THE AREA IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND WHILE THE
GFS IS DRY FOR OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS SKIRTING NE GA. THE
EUROPEAN MEANWHILE IS INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER FAR N AND
E GA ON SUNDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND EVEN WILL
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE DRIER GFS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM...BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR MAINLY ATHENS AND
MACON. VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE CONVECTION AROUND THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES APPEARS TO BE
18Z AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10KT AFTER 14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 65 87 59 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 86 66 85 60 / 50 40 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 80 61 80 55 / 60 60 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 84 63 84 57 / 60 60 30 20
COLUMBUS 90 67 89 63 / 30 30 30 20
GAINESVILLE 85 65 83 57 / 50 50 30 20
MACON 90 65 89 61 / 30 30 30 10
ROME 84 63 85 57 / 60 60 30 20
PEACHTREE CITY 86 62 86 59 / 40 30 30 20
VIDALIA 88 67 89 67 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 220540
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR WEST CENTRAL GA AS
WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY TO SPAWN A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. WATCHING CLOSELY STORMS ACROSS NORTH GA FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FF THREAT AS WELL. MOST STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL THIS EVE AND EXPECT TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 4Z TO 5Z.
OTHER UPDATE WAS TO GRIDS WED AFTN AND EVE TO INCLUDE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES....PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW AND NE GA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIALLY INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AFTER 3 PM WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AIRMASS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL AND CENTRAL TN COULD MAKE IT TO EXTREME
NORTHWEST GA BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTH GA AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. WILL TREND TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS
NORTH GA FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS REMAINS AB IT ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE EAST WITH THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW. BOTH ARE TRANSITIONING THE UPPER LOW TO MORE OF A SHARP OPEN
TROUGH PHASING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND BE ABSORBED
BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS WELL. SPC CONTINUES THE AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY...DECREASING BY MID-MORNING...AND INCREASING AGAIN IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z TO OVER
1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
AND HAVE DECREASED TEMPS NORTHWEST SOMEWHAT TO LINE UP WITH THAT
TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXCEPT IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6SM...BUT MAY DROP TO MVFR MAINLY ATHENS AND
MACON. VFR DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE CONVECTION AROUND THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES APPEARS TO BE
18Z AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10KT AFTER 14Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 67 83 66 82 / 20 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 77 60 78 / 30 60 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 64 84 62 82 / 20 60 60 30
COLUMBUS 68 89 67 87 / 20 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 83 64 81 / 20 50 50 30
MACON 63 87 65 86 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 64 84 61 83 / 30 60 60 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 84 / 20 40 30 30
VIDALIA 68 89 69 88 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 220252
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR WEST CENTRAL GA AS
WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY TO SPAWN A FEW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. WATCHING CLOSELY STORMS ACROSS NORTH GA FOR
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FF THREAT AS WELL. MOST STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL THIS EVE AND EXPECT TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 4Z TO 5Z.
OTHER UPDATE WAS TO GRIDS WED AFTN AND EVE TO INCLUDE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES....PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW AND NE GA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIALLY INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AFTER 3 PM WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AIRMASS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL AND CENTRAL TN COULD MAKE IT TO EXTREME
NORTHWEST GA BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTH GA AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. WILL TREND TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS
NORTH GA FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS REMAINS AB IT ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE EAST WITH THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW. BOTH ARE TRANSITIONING THE UPPER LOW TO MORE OF A SHARP OPEN
TROUGH PHASING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND BE ABSORBED
BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS WELL. SPC CONTINUES THE AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY...DECREASING BY MID-MORNING...AND INCREASING AGAIN IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z TO OVER
1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
AND HAVE DECREASED TEMPS NORTHWEST SOMEWHAT TO LINE UP WITH THAT
TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXCEPT IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND ATL HAS DIED DOWN WITH
SUNSET...HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOWS UP ON ATL TDWR AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY ON JGX RADAR NEAR MCN STILL INGNITING A FEW STORMS.
HAVE LEFT TS OUT FOR THE EVENING EXCEPT FOR ATL AND MCN WHICH
SHOULD GET A GLANCING BLOW OF THE CELLS IN EAST GA MOVING SW. HIGH
RES HRRR AND WRF INDICATING SOME DECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND
THE METRO ATL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z ALONG THE WESTWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO
TO INSERT INTO TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMD. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 TO ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z
AND 20Z AS 4 KM WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND THAT TIME
AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW MOVE INTO GA. WINDS SHOULD
GO GENERALLY CALM TONIGHT AND PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW BETWEEN 6 TO
10KTS AFTER AROUND 13Z WED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KSTELLMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 67 83 66 82 / 20 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 77 60 78 / 30 60 60 30
CARTERSVILLE 64 84 62 82 / 20 60 60 30
COLUMBUS 68 89 67 87 / 20 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 83 64 81 / 20 50 50 30
MACON 63 87 65 86 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 64 84 61 83 / 30 60 60 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 84 / 20 40 30 30
VIDALIA 68 89 69 88 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...SNELSON
000
FXUS62 KFFC 220005
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AIRMASS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL AND CENTRAL TN COULD MAKE IT TO EXTREME
NORTHWEST GA BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTH GA AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. WILL TREND TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS
NORTH GA FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS REMAINS AB IT ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE EAST WITH THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW. BOTH ARE TRANSITIONING THE UPPER LOW TO MORE OF A SHARP OPEN
TROUGH PHASING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND BE ABSORBED
BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS WELL. SPC CONTINUES THE AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY...DECREASING BY MID-MORNING...AND INCREASING AGAIN IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z TO OVER
1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
AND HAVE DECREASED TEMPS NORTHWEST SOMEWHAT TO LINE UP WITH THAT
TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXCEPT IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND ATL HAS DIED DOWN WITH
SUNSET...HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOWS UP ON ATL TDWR AS
WELL AS BOUNDARY ON JGX RADAR NEAR MCN STILL INGNITING A FEW STORMS.
HAVE LEFT TS OUT FOR THE EVENING EXCEPT FOR ATL AND MCN WHICH
SHOULD GET A GLANCING BLOW OF THE CELLS IN EAST GA MOVING SW. HIGH
RES HRRR AND WRF INDICATING SOME DECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND
THE METRO ATL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z ALONG THE WESTWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT SCENARIO
TO INSERT INTO TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMD. HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 TO ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19Z
AND 20Z AS 4 KM WRF SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND THAT TIME
AS WEAK COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW MOVE INTO GA. WINDS SHOULD
GO GENERALLY CALM TONIGHT AND PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW BETWEEN 6 TO
10KTS AFTER AROUND 13Z WED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
KSTELLMAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 67 83 66 82 / 20 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 77 60 78 / 30 60 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 64 84 62 82 / 20 60 40 30
COLUMBUS 68 89 67 87 / 20 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 83 64 81 / 20 50 40 30
MACON 63 87 65 86 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 64 84 61 83 / 30 60 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 84 / 20 40 30 30
VIDALIA 68 89 69 88 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...SNELSON
000
FXUS62 KFFC 211914
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AIRMASS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL AND CENTRAL TN COULD MAKE IT TO EXTREME
NORTHWEST GA BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. INSTABILITY INCREASES WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTH GA AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS. GUIDANCE
TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. WILL TREND TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ACROSS
NORTH GA FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
17
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS REMAINS AB IT ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE EAST WITH THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE
LOW. BOTH ARE TRANSITIONING THE UPPER LOW TO MORE OF A SHARP OPEN
TROUGH PHASING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND BE ABSORBED
BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS WELL. SPC CONTINUES THE AREA IN GENERAL
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG EARLY IN
THE DAY...DECREASING BY MID-MORNING...AND INCREASING AGAIN IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 18Z TO OVER
1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
AND HAVE DECREASED TEMPS NORTHWEST SOMEWHAT TO LINE UP WITH THAT
TIMING A LITTLE BETTER. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXCEPT IN CENTRAL
GEORGIA. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE REASONABLE...MOST SO FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE BEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL GA WITH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER N GA.
AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES E FOR FRIDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
WITH A MUCH DRIER NW FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS WELL EXCEPT THE NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE TO THE N WITH SOME MOISTURE SKIRTING BY THE AREA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SKIRT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AT THE GA/SC LINE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000 AND
5000. THESE WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATO-CU DECK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 3500 TO 5000 FT CIGS SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BY 18Z MOST AREAS
WILL SEE CIGS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TO
LIGHT WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...CALM TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 10KTS
OR LESS WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA WITH THE CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST. OTHER
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SC MOVING SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON AREA OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 30
ATLANTA 67 83 66 82 / 20 40 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 77 60 78 / 30 60 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 64 84 62 82 / 20 60 40 30
COLUMBUS 68 89 67 87 / 20 30 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 83 64 81 / 20 50 40 30
MACON 63 87 65 86 / 20 30 30 30
ROME 64 84 61 83 / 30 60 40 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 85 63 84 / 20 40 30 30
VIDALIA 68 89 69 88 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17
000
FXUS62 KFFC 211726
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHEAST FL. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE HOWEVER WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST GA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A LULL BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTH. THE GFS HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH A FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD GEORGIA. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE FRONT WEST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE.
41
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE REASONABLE...MOST SO FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE BEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL GA WITH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER N GA.
AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES E FOR FRIDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
WITH A MUCH DRIER NW FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS WELL EXCEPT THE NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE TO THE N WITH SOME MOISTURE SKIRTING BY THE AREA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SKIRT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AT THE GA/SC LINE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH BASES BETWEEN 4000 AND
5000. THESE WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. REDEVELOPMENT OF A
STRATO-CU DECK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 3500 TO 5000 FT CIGS SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BY 18Z MOST AREAS
WILL SEE CIGS AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TO
LIGHT WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...CALM TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST 10KTS
OR LESS WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GA. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA WITH THE CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST. OTHER
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SC MOVING SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH REDEVELOPMENT...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON AREA OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 64 86 64 / 30 30 40 40
ATLANTA 86 67 84 66 / 10 10 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 82 60 81 60 / 30 30 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 64 85 63 / 10 10 50 40
COLUMBUS 90 68 88 68 / 10 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 85 66 84 64 / 30 30 50 40
MACON 89 64 88 65 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 86 63 85 62 / 10 20 50 40
PEACHTREE CITY 87 61 86 63 / 10 10 50 30
VIDALIA 88 69 88 68 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 211147
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHEAST FL. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE HOWEVER WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST GA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A LULL BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTH. THE GFS HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH A FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD GEORGIA. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE FRONT WEST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE.
41
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE REASONABLE...MOST SO FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE BEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL GA WITH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER N GA.
AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES E FOR FRIDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
WITH A MUCH DRIER NW FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS WELL EXCEPT THE NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE TO THE N WITH SOME MOISTURE SKIRTING BY THE AREA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SKIRT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AT THE GA/SC LINE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING VFR TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 040. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS MOST AREAS OF FOG
ARE SHALLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PROBABILITY OF HAVING A THUNDERSTORM AFFECT THE TAF SITES
IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 5 TO 8KT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SSE AGAIN BY 00Z THIS EVENING
BUT WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 5KT. .
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF SW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 64 86 64 / 30 30 40 40
ATLANTA 86 67 84 66 / 10 10 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 82 60 81 60 / 30 30 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 64 85 63 / 10 10 50 40
COLUMBUS 90 68 88 68 / 10 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 85 66 84 64 / 30 30 50 40
MACON 89 64 88 65 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 86 63 85 62 / 10 20 50 40
PEACHTREE CITY 87 61 86 63 / 10 10 50 30
VIDALIA 88 69 88 68 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
000
FXUS62 KFFC 210751
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHEAST FL. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE HOWEVER WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO
NORTHWEST GA. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW AND BETTER MOISTURE. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A LULL BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTH. THE GFS HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH A FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD GEORGIA. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE FRONT WEST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE.
41
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE REASONABLE...MOST SO FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE BEST INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL GA WITH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT OVER N GA.
AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST SO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES E FOR FRIDAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
WITH A MUCH DRIER NW FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS WELL EXCEPT THE NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE TO THE N WITH SOME MOISTURE SKIRTING BY THE AREA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SKIRT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AT THE GA/SC LINE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 050 THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR STRATUS FORMING THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SOME MVFR VISIBILITY
IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF HAVING A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF FORECAST FOR NOW. SSE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT 5KT OR
LESS...WITH SSW EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SSE AGAIN BY 23-00Z THIS EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 87 64 86 64 / 30 30 40 40
ATLANTA 86 67 84 66 / 10 10 50 40
BLAIRSVILLE 82 60 81 60 / 30 30 50 50
CARTERSVILLE 86 64 85 63 / 10 10 50 40
COLUMBUS 90 68 88 68 / 10 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 85 66 84 64 / 30 30 50 40
MACON 89 64 88 65 / 20 20 30 30
ROME 86 63 85 62 / 10 20 50 40
PEACHTREE CITY 87 61 86 63 / 10 10 50 30
VIDALIA 88 69 88 68 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41
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