000
FXUS62 KFFC 191912
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO KEEP THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TN/NORTH
GA IS REINFORCING THE FORECAST BY THE HRRR WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OT THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF GA THROUGH 00Z. THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH 00Z. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY EXIT FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST/EAST GA WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER AL/GA WHICH SHOULD ALSO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ENDING THE PRECIP BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MAV/MET
TEMPS LOOKING ALRIGHT...PERHAPS ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT AND HAVE
RAISE THEM A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS.
17
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY CAD PROGGED TO DEVELOP. 12Z RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF STILL SIMILAR FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
VERY LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED AND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME
EARLY FRIDAY. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A LITTLE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM AND ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY THERE AS
WELL...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL KEEP THE RISK OF THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS/STRATO CU FORMING LATE TONIGHT
WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR. ALL AREAS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 18Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 86 65 86 / 50 20 10 30
ATLANTA 66 86 67 85 / 40 10 10 30
BLAIRSVILLE 60 83 60 82 / 40 10 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 63 87 65 87 / 30 10 10 20
COLUMBUS 66 89 67 89 / 60 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 63 83 65 83 / 40 10 10 40
MACON 66 87 65 88 / 70 20 20 20
ROME 63 88 64 87 / 30 10 10 20
PEACHTREE CITY 64 86 65 86 / 50 10 10 20
VIDALIA 68 88 67 87 / 70 50 40 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...LAURENS...
MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17
000
FXUS62 KFFC 191741
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. MPE PLACES AN
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY INTO EASTERN DAWSON
COUNTY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BACK OFF TO THE WEST. DO
THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWFA...THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE MODELED POPS AROUND THE HRRR
OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PERIOD. DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
KEEP FIRING ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A MCS TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA AND PUSHING SE TODAY. THE HRRR ACTUALLY IS
HINTING AT THIS ALSO. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND. MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES...WHERE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE MOST HEATING.
IF AN MCS FEATURE DOES DEVELOP...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREICP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL KEEP THE RISK OF THUNDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH STRATUS/STRATO CU FORMING LATE TONIGHT
WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR. ALL AREAS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 18Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 64 85 66 / 90 40 30 20
ATLANTA 80 66 86 66 / 100 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 73 59 83 60 / 80 30 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 80 65 88 65 / 100 40 20 20
COLUMBUS 86 67 90 67 / 70 50 20 10
GAINESVILLE 77 63 85 65 / 90 40 30 20
MACON 85 66 88 66 / 80 40 30 10
ROME 81 65 89 65 / 100 40 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 64 87 64 / 100 40 20 10
VIDALIA 84 67 83 66 / 90 40 40 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 191141
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD THE FLOOD WATCH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. MPE PLACES AN
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY INTO EASTERN DAWSON
COUNTY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BACK OFF TO THE WEST. DO
THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWFA...THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE MODELED POPS AROUND THE HRRR
OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PERIOD. DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
KEEP FIRING ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A MCS TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA AND PUSHING SE TODAY. THE HRRR ACTUALLY IS
HINTING AT THIS ALSO. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND. MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES...WHERE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE MOST HEATING.
IF AN MCS FEATURE DOES DEVELOP...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREICP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CURRENT PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. FOLLOWED THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT HAS BEEN THE
BEST MODEL. WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SWITCHED TO THE NE IN
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 64 85 66 / 90 40 30 20
ATLANTA 80 66 86 66 / 100 40 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 73 59 83 60 / 80 30 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 80 65 88 65 / 100 40 20 20
COLUMBUS 86 67 90 67 / 70 50 20 10
GAINESVILLE 77 63 85 65 / 90 40 30 20
MACON 85 66 88 66 / 80 40 30 10
ROME 81 65 89 65 / 100 40 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 64 87 64 / 100 40 20 10
VIDALIA 84 67 83 66 / 90 40 40 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190757
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. MPE PLACES AN
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST WALKER COUNTY INTO EASTERN DAWSON
COUNTY. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BACK OFF TO THE WEST. DO
THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWFA...THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE MODELED POPS AROUND THE HRRR
OUTPUT FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PERIOD. DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
KEEP FIRING ACROSS NW GA THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A MCS TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWFA AND PUSHING SE TODAY. THE HRRR ACTUALLY IS
HINTING AT THIS ALSO. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THIS WILL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND. MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES...WHERE THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE MOST HEATING.
IF AN MCS FEATURE DOES DEVELOP...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PREICP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE SE COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP FOCUS SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. PREVIOUS RUNS PUSHED THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST
ON TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF NOW HAS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTHERN GA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUES TO BRING THE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR NOW...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCT RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY PERSISTENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK.
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CURRENT PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. FOLLOWED THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT HAS BEEN THE
BEST MODEL. CIGS AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE. MODELS DO
HAVE CIG VALUES DIPPING TO IFR AND OBS REFLECT THIS...ALSO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE PRESENT BUT ONLY HAVE 5-6SM PREV. MORNING
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 64 85 66 / 60 50 30 20
ATLANTA 80 66 86 66 / 60 30 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 73 59 83 60 / 70 50 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 80 65 88 65 / 60 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 86 67 90 67 / 40 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 77 63 85 65 / 70 50 30 20
MACON 85 66 88 66 / 50 30 30 10
ROME 81 65 89 65 / 60 30 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 81 64 87 64 / 50 30 20 10
VIDALIA 84 67 83 66 / 50 50 40 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190542
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
HI RES MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE CONVECTION WELL AT ALL
THIS EVENING AND WERE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS
PROBABLY BEEN THE BEST BUT STILL NOT QUITE CATCHING TRENDS.
STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
SUNRISE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TOMORROW
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. A FEW MODELS ARE LIMITING ACTIVITY...WHILE
SOME ARE SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO DECREASE POPS INITIALLY BUT SHOW A TREND
OF INCREASING POPS LATE TONIGHT. TWEAKED TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING BY TRYING TO SHOW A TREND OF DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN FORECAST
INSTABILITY...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
11
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS SLOWLY PULLING EAST.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER AL AND GA WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GA AND
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE POPS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL GA. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND K-INDEX
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH LITTLE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT AND PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT.
17
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST RATIONALE.
16
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND
AFFECTING THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CURRENT PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. FOLLOWED THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT HAS BEEN THE
BEST MODEL. CIGS AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE. MODELS DO
HAVE CIG VALUES DIPPING TO IFR AND OBS REFLECT THIS...ALSO AREAS
OF FOG WILL BE PRESENT BUT ONLY HAVE 5-6SM PREV. MORNING
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REMAINDER OF ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 77 65 84 66 / 60 50 30 20
ATLANTA 81 66 86 66 / 60 30 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 76 60 82 61 / 70 50 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 81 65 88 67 / 60 30 20 20
COLUMBUS 86 67 89 68 / 40 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 77 63 84 65 / 70 50 30 20
MACON 83 66 87 66 / 50 30 30 10
ROME 82 65 89 67 / 60 30 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 82 65 87 66 / 50 30 20 10
VIDALIA 86 68 84 65 / 50 50 40 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL
000
FXUS62 KFFC 190209 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1009 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
HI RES MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE CONVECTION WELL AT ALL
THIS EVENING AND WERE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS
PROBABLY BEEN THE BEST BUT STILL NOT QUITE CATCHING TRENDS.
STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
SUNRISE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TOMORROW
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. A FEW MODELS ARE LIMITING ACTIVITY...WHILE
SOME ARE SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WAS TO DECREASE POPS INITIALLY BUT SHOW A TREND
OF INCREASING POPS LATE TONIGHT. TWEAKED TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING BY TRYING TO SHOW A TREND OF DECREASING POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN FORECAST
INSTABILITY...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS SLOWLY PULLING EAST.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER AL AND GA WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GA AND
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE POPS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL GA. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND K-INDEX
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH LITTLE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT AND PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT.
17
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST RATIONALE.
16
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND
AFFECTING THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 756 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST PART.
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY
SUNRISE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER GREATLY THOUGH IN PRECIP FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COULD SEE SOME BR DEVELOP BY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT CSG...MCN AND AHN. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIFR CIGS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS...VSBYS AND
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 77 65 84 / 50 60 60 40
ATLANTA 65 81 66 86 / 50 60 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 62 76 60 82 / 60 70 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 64 81 65 88 / 60 60 30 20
COLUMBUS 67 86 67 89 / 30 40 30 10
GAINESVILLE 63 77 63 84 / 60 70 70 40
MACON 64 83 66 87 / 30 60 30 30
ROME 66 82 65 89 / 60 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 64 82 65 87 / 50 60 30 20
VIDALIA 68 86 68 84 / 30 60 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
000
FXUS62 KFFC 182356 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
756 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS SLOWLY PULLING EAST.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER AL AND GA WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GA AND
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE POPS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL GA. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND K-INDEX
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH LITTLE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT AND PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT.
17
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST RATIONALE.
16
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND
AFFECTING THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST PART.
IN A LULL IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE BY
SUNRISE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIFFER GREATLY THOUGH IN PRECIP FORECAST FOR TOMORROW...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. COULD SEE SOME BR DEVELOP BY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY AT CSG...MCN AND AHN. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIFR CIGS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS...VSBYS AND
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 77 65 84 / 50 60 60 40
ATLANTA 65 81 66 86 / 50 60 30 20
BLAIRSVILLE 62 76 60 82 / 60 70 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 64 81 65 88 / 60 60 30 20
COLUMBUS 67 86 67 89 / 30 40 30 10
GAINESVILLE 63 77 63 84 / 60 70 70 40
MACON 64 83 66 87 / 30 60 30 30
ROME 66 82 65 89 / 60 60 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 64 82 65 87 / 50 60 30 20
VIDALIA 68 86 68 84 / 20 60 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
000
FXUS62 KFFC 181926
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS SLOWLY PULLING EAST.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER AL AND GA WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS. THE PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GA AND
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE POPS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL GA. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND K-INDEX
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AND THEREFORE EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH LITTLE SURFACE WIND TONIGHT AND PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT.
17
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST RATIONALE.
16
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND
AFFECTING THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH AREAS
GOING VFR BY 21Z AND REMAINING VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. A
SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO CENTRAL GA SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH
THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS ON CIGS/VSBYS.
LOW TO MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 63 77 65 84 / 50 60 60 40
ATLANTA 65 81 66 86 / 50 60 60 20
BLAIRSVILLE 62 76 60 82 / 60 70 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 64 81 65 88 / 60 60 50 20
COLUMBUS 67 86 67 89 / 30 40 50 10
GAINESVILLE 63 77 63 84 / 60 70 60 40
MACON 64 83 66 87 / 40 60 60 30
ROME 66 82 65 89 / 60 60 40 10
PEACHTREE CITY 64 82 65 87 / 50 60 60 20
VIDALIA 68 86 68 84 / 40 60 60 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...17
000
FXUS62 KFFC 181739
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL TN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN GA NOW
THROUGH SAT AM. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION IN A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW. ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE FEATURES. FOR TODAY...BIG QUESTION
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS WILL REMAIN AND
HINDER OR DELAY ANY DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS GA AND THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH SHOWS HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN GA THROUGH SAT AND LESSER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HAVE A BIGGER THAN CURRENT MODELS
FORECASTING GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN AL AND TN.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THESE DISTURBANCES...CANT RULE IT OUT.
GFS INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 500 TO 700 MB
LAPSE RATES OVER 8 DEG C/KM FOR NORTHWEST GA. ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES 2000 TO AS MUCH AS 4000 J/KG ... THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE LESS THAN MARGINAL SO
CONFIDENCE ON A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS LESS. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TIMING OF STORMS ON SUNDAY IS A
CRAP SHOOT AT THIS POINT AND MODEL TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON SUN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BETTER OR WORSE.
HIGH PW VALUES AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GA BOTH SAT AND SUN. WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THIS AS
WELL AS THE SEVERE THREAT.
30
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND AFFECTING
THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS ATL/AHN AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH AREAS
GOING VFR BY 21Z AND REMAINING VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH TO SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. A
SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO CENTRAL GA SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH
THE FORECAST.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS ON CIGS/VSBYS.
LOW TO MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 63 79 65 / 60 60 60 60
ATLANTA 78 65 79 66 / 70 70 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 73 60 76 60 / 70 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 78 63 79 65 / 70 70 60 50
COLUMBUS 83 67 85 67 / 90 50 40 50
GAINESVILLE 76 63 76 63 / 70 70 70 60
MACON 85 64 84 66 / 50 50 60 60
ROME 79 63 81 65 / 70 70 60 40
PEACHTREE CITY 79 64 79 65 / 60 60 60 60
VIDALIA 88 69 87 68 / 40 40 60 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 181147
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
747 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL TN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN GA NOW
THROUGH SAT AM. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION IN A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW. ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE FEATURES. FOR TODAY...BIG QUESTION
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS WILL REMAIN AND
HINDER OR DELAY ANY DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS GA AND THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH SHOWS HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN GA THROUGH SAT AND LESSER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING MAY HAVE A BIGGER THAN CURRENT MODELS FORECASTING GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN AL AND TN. GIVEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THESE DISTURBANCES...CANT RULE IT OUT. GFS
INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 500 TO 700 MB
LAPSE RATES OVER 8 DEG C/KM FOR NORTHWEST GA. ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES 2000 TO AS MUCH AS 4000 J/KG ... THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE LESS THAN MARGINAL SO
CONFIDENCE ON A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS LESS. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TIMING OF STORMS ON SUNDAY IS A
CRAP SHOOT AT THIS POINT AND MODEL TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON SUN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BETTER OR WORSE.
HIGH PW VALUES AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GA BOTH SAT AND SUN. WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THIS AS
WELL AS THE SEVERE THREAT.
30
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND AFFECTING
THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS WORKING EAST OUT OF AL INTO GA
TONIGHT. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON MAIN CELLS FOR ATLANTA AREA SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE ACROSS GA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LARGER CELL WEST OF CSG WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST.
DID INCLUDE TSRA IN A TEMPO GROUP AT ATL OVERNIGHT FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. HRRR AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EAST WEST
BANDING OF STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING BUT PRIMARILY OVER AL AND
EXTREME WESTERN GA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY SLIGHT
EASTWARD EXTENSION AND THE NEED TO AMD WITH THUNDER.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAMPER EARLY TS DEVELOPMENT
ON SAT BUT STILL THINK TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE TAF BASED ON THE SHORT TERM TRENDS TO
OPEN UP A MORE RAIN FREE WINDOW FROM AROUND 15Z THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RAIN COOLED AIR TO STABILIZE THE ATMSPHERE
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
HRRR AND WRF SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT AROUND 20Z ACROSS NORTH GA
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS AND CIGS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON CIGS...VSBY.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON PRECIP TIMING.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 63 79 65 / 60 60 60 60
ATLANTA 78 65 79 66 / 70 70 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 73 60 76 60 / 70 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 78 63 79 65 / 70 70 60 50
COLUMBUS 83 67 85 67 / 90 50 40 50
GAINESVILLE 76 63 76 63 / 70 70 70 60
MACON 85 64 84 66 / 50 50 60 60
ROME 79 63 81 65 / 70 70 60 40
PEACHTREE CITY 79 64 79 65 / 60 60 60 60
VIDALIA 88 69 87 68 / 40 40 60 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180838
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL TN
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN GA NOW
THROUGH SAT AM. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION IN A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW. ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE ON CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE FEATURES. FOR TODAY...BIG QUESTION
WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS WILL REMAIN AND
HINDER OR DELAY ANY DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS GA AND THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF CONTINUE TO SHOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH SHOWS HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN GA THROUGH SAT AND LESSER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING MAY HAVE A BIGGER THAN CURRENT MODELS FORECASTING GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN AL AND TN. GIVEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THESE DISTURBANCES...CANT RULE IT OUT. GFS
INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS IMPRESSIVE WITH 500 TO 700 MB
LAPSE RATES OVER 8 DEG C/KM FOR NORTHWEST GA. ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES 2000 TO AS MUCH AS 4000 J/KG ... THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE LESS THAN MARGINAL SO
CONFIDENCE ON A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS LESS. MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TIMING OF STORMS ON SUNDAY IS A
CRAP SHOOT AT THIS POINT AND MODEL TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON SUN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
IT COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BETTER OR WORSE.
HIGH PW VALUES AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GA BOTH SAT AND SUN. WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THIS AS
WELL AS THE SEVERE THREAT.
30
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE NW FLOW AND AFFECTING
THE CWFA. STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR MONDAY...A 500MB TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SETS UP RIGHT ALONG THE SE
COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DO THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MORE
DIURNAL IN NATURE. KEPT THE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
WEAK SHEAR AXIS/500MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT ACROSS THE CWFA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS PRECIP IS NOTED. PRECIP
SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS PROGGED A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS DOES MOVE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO PERSISTENCE FOR THIS PERIOD DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
NLISTEMAA
&&
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS WORKING EAST OUT OF AL INTO GA
TONIGHT. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON MAIN CELLS FOR ATLANTA AREA SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE ACROSS GA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LARGER CELL WEST OF CSG WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST.
DID INCLUDE TSRA IN A TEMPO GROUP AT ATL OVERNIGHT FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. HRRR AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EAST WEST
BANDING OF STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING BUT PRIMARILY OVER AL AND
EXTREME WESTERN GA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY SLIGHT
EASTWARD EXTENSION AND THE NEED TO AMD WITH THUNDER.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAMPER EARLY TS DEVELOPMENT
ON SAT BUT STILL THINK TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 80 63 79 65 / 60 60 60 60
ATLANTA 78 65 79 66 / 70 70 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 73 60 76 60 / 70 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 78 63 79 65 / 70 70 60 50
COLUMBUS 83 67 85 67 / 50 50 40 50
GAINESVILLE 76 63 76 63 / 70 70 70 60
MACON 85 64 84 66 / 50 50 60 60
ROME 79 63 81 65 / 70 70 60 40
PEACHTREE CITY 79 64 79 65 / 60 60 60 60
VIDALIA 88 69 87 68 / 40 40 60 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180614
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
RE-ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...
BETTER CONVECTION IS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA ALONG THE BETTER
THETA-E AXIS. PLENTY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS STILL MOVING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS OK FOR NOW SO LITTLE OR
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY HAS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
NORTH AL AND CENTRAL TN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE
WITH ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...TO SPREAD
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF GA. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO ENTER NORTHWEST GA TONIGHT AND
OVER MOST OF NORTH GA BY MIDNIGHT. THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR STABILIZES
THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE. DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MUCAPES IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST GA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTH GA WITH 0.75 INCH OR LESS OVER CENTRAL GA. TEMPORARY
STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER CREEK OR RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED UNLESS MORE
QPF DEVELOPS IN A MUCH SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. A MET/MAV MOS BLEND
WAS USED FOR MIN AND MAX TEMPS.
16
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS...IN ADDITION TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWA AND FORECAST MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR THE TREND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED LIKELY POPS FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POPS DECREASE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
WITH MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS
IN THE 12Z RUN. GIVEN DIFFERENCES...HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS
ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 02Z AND 14Z...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE BETTER
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES
WILL BE BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z AS A LARGE...WEAKENING...AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES EAST OUT OF ALABAMA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE AFTER
16Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z...
BUT WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 6-10KT AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS WORKING EAST OUT OF AL INTO GA
TONIGHT. TIME OF ARRIVAL ON MAIN CELLS FOR ATLANTA AREA SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER
AS AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE STABLE ACROSS GA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
LARGER CELL WEST OF CSG WHICH HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST.
DID INCLUDE TSRA IN A TEMPO GROUP AT ATL OVERNIGHT FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. HRRR AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EAST WEST
BANDING OF STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING BUT PRIMARILY OVER AL AND
EXTREME WESTERN GA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY SLIGHT
EASTWARD EXTENSION AND THE NEED TO AMD WITH THUNDER.
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAMPER EARLY TS DEVELOPMENT
ON SAT BUT STILL THINK TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GA. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 82 64 82 66 / 60 60 60 40
ATLANTA 81 65 82 68 / 70 70 60 30
BLAIRSVILLE 73 57 78 60 / 70 70 70 50
CARTERSVILLE 80 64 82 66 / 70 70 60 20
COLUMBUS 85 67 86 67 / 50 50 30 20
GAINESVILLE 79 64 80 66 / 70 70 60 40
MACON 84 64 85 66 / 50 50 50 30
ROME 80 64 83 66 / 70 70 60 20
PEACHTREE CITY 80 63 84 64 / 60 60 50 20
VIDALIA 87 67 86 68 / 40 40 50 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180120
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
920 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
RE-ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...
BETTER CONVECTION IS SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA ALONG THE BETTER
THETA-E AXIS. PLENTY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS STILL MOVING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS OK FOR NOW SO LITTLE OR
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY HAS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
NORTH AL AND CENTRAL TN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE
WITH ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...TO SPREAD
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF GA. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO ENTER NORTHWEST GA TONIGHT AND
OVER MOST OF NORTH GA BY MIDNIGHT. THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR STABILIZES
THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE. DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MUCAPES IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST GA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTH GA WITH 0.75 INCH OR LESS OVER CENTRAL GA. TEMPORARY
STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER CREEK OR RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED UNLESS MORE
QPF DEVELOPS IN A MUCH SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. A MET/MAV MOS BLEND
WAS USED FOR MIN AND MAX TEMPS.
16
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS...IN ADDITION TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWA AND FORECAST MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR THE TREND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED LIKELY POPS FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POPS DECREASE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
WITH MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS
IN THE 12Z RUN. GIVEN DIFFERENCES...HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS
ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 02Z AND 14Z...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE BETTER
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES
WILL BE BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z AS A LARGE...WEAKENING...AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES EAST OUT OF ALABAMA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE AFTER
16Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z...
BUT WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 6-10KT AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 82 64 82 / 40 60 60 60
ATLANTA 64 81 65 82 / 50 70 70 60
BLAIRSVILLE 59 73 57 78 / 50 70 70 70
CARTERSVILLE 64 80 64 82 / 90 70 70 60
COLUMBUS 66 85 67 86 / 70 50 50 30
GAINESVILLE 63 79 64 80 / 40 70 70 60
MACON 64 84 64 85 / 50 50 50 50
ROME 64 80 64 83 / 100 70 70 60
PEACHTREE CITY 62 80 63 84 / 50 60 60 50
VIDALIA 66 87 67 86 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20
000
FXUS62 KFFC 180013 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY HAS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH
NORTH AL AND CENTRAL TN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE
WITH ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...TO SPREAD
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF GA. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE NAM...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO ENTER NORTHWEST GA TONIGHT AND
OVER MOST OF NORTH GA BY MIDNIGHT. THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD
DIMINISH TO ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR STABILIZES
THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE. DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MUCAPES IN THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST GA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTH GA WITH 0.75 INCH OR LESS OVER CENTRAL GA. TEMPORARY
STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER CREEK OR RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED UNLESS MORE
QPF DEVELOPS IN A MUCH SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. A MET/MAV MOS BLEND
WAS USED FOR MIN AND MAX TEMPS.
16
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS...IN ADDITION TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWA AND FORECAST MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR THE TREND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED LIKELY POPS FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POPS DECREASE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
WITH MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS
IN THE 12Z RUN. GIVEN DIFFERENCES...HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS
ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 02Z AND 14Z...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT SEE BETTER
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES
WILL BE BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z AS A LARGE...WEAKENING...AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES EAST OUT OF ALABAMA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE AFTER
16Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z...
BUT WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 6-10KT AFTER 16Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 82 64 82 / 40 60 70 60
ATLANTA 64 81 65 82 / 60 60 70 60
BLAIRSVILLE 59 73 57 78 / 70 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 64 80 64 82 / 70 70 80 60
COLUMBUS 66 85 67 86 / 50 50 50 30
GAINESVILLE 63 79 64 80 / 60 70 70 60
MACON 64 84 64 85 / 20 40 40 50
ROME 64 80 64 83 / 80 80 80 60
PEACHTREE CITY 62 80 63 84 / 60 50 60 60
VIDALIA 66 87 67 86 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....11/BDL
AVIATION...16
000
FXUS62 KFFC 171951
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MS RIVER VALLEY HAS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH NORTH AL
AND CENTRAL TN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MOST MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH
ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE...PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...TO SPREAD NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF GA. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO ENTER NORTHWEST GA TONIGHT AND OVER MOST
OF NORTH GA BY MIDNIGHT. THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED LATER TONIGHT AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR STABILIZES THE AIRMASS
OVER THE STATE. DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NORTHWEST GA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH GA
WITH 0.75 INCH OR LESS OVER CENTRAL GA. TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER CREEK OR RIVER
FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED UNLESS MORE QPF DEVELOPS IN A MUCH
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR MIN AND MAX
TEMPS.
16
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO THIS...IN ADDITION TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CWA AND FORECAST MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR THE TREND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED LIKELY POPS FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...POPS DECREASE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER
WITH MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS
IN THE 12Z RUN. GIVEN DIFFERENCES...HAVE CONTINUED THE TRENDS
ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
11
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA OVER AL/TN. THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT ATL WITH -SHRA MOVING IN AROUND 03Z AND CONTINUING WITH
A CHANCE OF -TSRA AFTER 16Z. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF MVFR CIG OF 1200 FT AROUND SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS OF S-SW 10
KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 82 64 82 / 40 60 70 60
ATLANTA 64 81 65 82 / 60 60 70 60
BLAIRSVILLE 59 73 57 78 / 70 80 80 70
CARTERSVILLE 64 80 64 82 / 70 70 80 60
COLUMBUS 66 85 67 86 / 50 50 50 30
GAINESVILLE 63 79 64 80 / 60 70 70 60
MACON 64 84 64 85 / 20 40 40 50
ROME 64 80 64 83 / 80 80 80 60
PEACHTREE CITY 62 80 63 84 / 60 50 60 60
VIDALIA 66 87 67 86 / 30 30 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....11/BDL
AVIATION...16
000
FXUS62 KFFC 171755
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAX DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY AFTER 300
PM EDT.
16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE SE COAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AL
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH. FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NE AL/NW GA.
DO THINK BY 12Z ISO/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WORDING FOR CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA THIS MORNING. DO THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE TIMES WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE SCT RATHER THAN BKN...BUT
OVERALL FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE. IN ADDITION...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR POPS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN GA...
BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ARE STILL 40 OR LESS. THE FURTHER
SOUTH...POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH NW GA OVERNIGHT...AND
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE AFTER 03-06Z. HAVE UPPED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TO LIKELY AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE SOME SURFACE
CAPE...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA OVER AL/TN. THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT ATL WITH -SHRA MOVING IN AROUND 03Z AND CONTINUING
WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA AFTER 16Z. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A BRIEF MVFR CIG OF 1200 FT AROUND SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS OF
S-SW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 83 64 / 20 20 60 60
ATLANTA 83 65 82 66 / 20 20 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 77 60 74 58 / 30 60 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 81 62 81 63 / 30 50 70 60
COLUMBUS 85 65 86 67 / 20 10 50 40
GAINESVILLE 82 63 80 63 / 30 50 70 60
MACON 86 62 85 64 / 20 10 40 50
ROME 82 63 81 63 / 30 60 70 60
PEACHTREE CITY 83 61 81 64 / 20 20 50 60
VIDALIA 87 67 88 69 / 20 10 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
000
FXUS62 KFFC 171454
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AT THIS TIME. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAX DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY AFTER 300
PM EDT.
16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE SE COAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AL
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH. FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NE AL/NW GA.
DO THINK BY 12Z ISO/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WORDING FOR CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA THIS MORNING. DO THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE TIMES WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE SCT RATHER THAN BKN...BUT
OVERALL FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE. IN ADDITION...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR POPS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN GA...
BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ARE STILL 40 OR LESS. THE FURTHER
SOUTH...POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH NW GA OVERNIGHT...AND
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE AFTER 03-06Z. HAVE UPPED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TO LIKELY AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE SOME SURFACE
CAPE...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS WHERE THE UPPER CLOUDINESS WILL BE MORE SCT THAN BKN.
DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AROUND
040-050. MODELS/SOUNDINGS TAKE THE WIND DIRECTION A LITTLE EAST OF
SOUTH FRIDAY EVE. SPEEDS LESS THAN 5KT ARE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP
WINDS ON THE WEST SOUTH OF SOUTH AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN N OF ATL THIS AFT. 6Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TOWARDS 12 SAT SO HAVE ADDED A SCT012 DECK.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 83 64 / 20 20 60 60
ATLANTA 83 65 82 66 / 20 20 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 77 60 74 58 / 30 60 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 81 62 81 63 / 30 50 70 60
COLUMBUS 85 65 86 67 / 20 10 50 40
GAINESVILLE 82 63 80 63 / 30 50 70 60
MACON 86 62 85 64 / 20 10 40 50
ROME 82 63 81 63 / 30 60 70 60
PEACHTREE CITY 83 61 81 64 / 20 20 50 60
VIDALIA 87 67 88 69 / 20 10 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
000
FXUS62 KFFC 171131
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE SE COAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AL
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH. FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NE AL/NW GA.
DO THINK BY 12Z ISO/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WORDING FOR CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA THIS MORNING. DO THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE TIMES WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE SCT RATHER THAN BKN...BUT
OVERALL FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE. IN ADDITION...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR POPS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN GA...
BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ARE STILL 40 OR LESS. THE FURTHER
SOUTH...POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH NW GA OVERNIGHT...AND
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE AFTER 03-06Z. HAVE UPPED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TO LIKELY AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE SOME SURFACE
CAPE...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS WHERE THE UPPER CLOUDINESS WILL BE MORE SCT THAN BKN.
DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...AROUND
040-050. MODELS/SOUNDINGS TAKE THE WIND DIRECTION A LITTLE EAST OF
SOUTH FRIDAY EVE. SPEEDS LESS THAN 5KT ARE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP
WINDS ON THE WEST SOUTH OF SOUTH AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN N OF ATL THIS AFT. 6Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TOWARDS 12 SAT SO HAVE ADDED A SCT012 DECK.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 83 64 / 20 20 60 60
ATLANTA 83 65 82 66 / 20 20 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 77 60 74 58 / 30 60 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 81 62 81 63 / 30 50 70 60
COLUMBUS 85 65 86 67 / 20 10 50 40
GAINESVILLE 82 63 80 63 / 30 50 70 60
MACON 86 62 85 64 / 10 10 40 50
ROME 82 63 81 63 / 30 60 70 60
PEACHTREE CITY 83 61 81 64 / 20 20 50 60
VIDALIA 87 67 88 69 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL
000
FXUS62 KFFC 170746
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THE SE COAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AL
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH. FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS...THE SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT INTO FAR NE AL/NW GA.
DO THINK BY 12Z ISO/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWFA.
WORDING FOR CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA THIS MORNING. DO THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE TIMES WHERE THE CIRRUS WILL BE SCT RATHER THAN BKN...BUT
OVERALL FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE. IN ADDITION...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS WERE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR POPS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN GA...
BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ARE STILL 40 OR LESS. THE FURTHER
SOUTH...POPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY.
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH NW GA OVERNIGHT...AND
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE AFTER 03-06Z. HAVE UPPED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TO LIKELY AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL BE SOME SURFACE
CAPE...BUT WILL KEEP THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW.
TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY TARGETING THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING GA. WHILE N GA IS
TARGETED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL. EVEN
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THE AREA FOR SUNDAY BUT STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT FOR MONDAY WITH THE GFS WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN AS THE
EUROPEAN HAS A STRONGER DRIER UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER ON TUESDAY THAN THE EUROPEAN
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE
N. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA AND THE EUROPEAN KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NW. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN COMBINE
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF N AND C GA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DO THINK THE CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE THE UPPER CLOUDINESS WILL
BE MORE SCT THAN BKN. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...AROUND 040-050. MODELS/SOUNDINGS WANT TO TAKE THE WIND
DIRECTION A LITTLE EAST OF SOUTH FRIDAY EVE. SPEEDS LESS THAN 5KT
ARE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE WEST SOUTH OF SOUTH AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN N OF ATL THIS AFT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 83 64 / 20 20 60 60
ATLANTA 83 65 82 66 / 20 20 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 77 60 74 58 / 30 30 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 81 62 81 63 / 30 30 70 60
COLUMBUS 85 65 86 67 / 20 10 50 40
GAINESVILLE 82 63 80 63 / 30 30 70 60
MACON 86 62 85 64 / 10 10 40 50
ROME 82 63 81 63 / 30 30 70 60
PEACHTREE CITY 83 61 81 64 / 20 20 50 60
VIDALIA 87 67 88 69 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 170536
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED POPS AND
FOCUSED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE ON THE WESTERN SIDE
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SOME SHOWERS OVER AL. ALTHOUGH VORT MAX IS
PEGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NW GA AROUND SUNRISE...BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DID REDUCE POPS
SLIGHTLY AND CUT BACK ON THE AREA FOR TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES...REST OF TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
WERE ONLY MINOR TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.
11
PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SCATTERING OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ATL WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL BLEND. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DAMPEN INTO THE MAIN
LONGWAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD MAINLY
SERVE TO BRING AN ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ADDING SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. FORECAST CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAVING THE MAIN THREATS OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND...WHEN THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS.
FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
CONTINUING TO BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BAKER
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH QPF BETWEEN
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DISAGREE...EVEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS
STILL ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY. HAVE GENERALLY MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP...HAVE AVOID MAKING WHOLESCALE CHANGES
AT THIS TIME. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED IN GRIDS...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ON MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
31
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF N AND C GA EARLY
THIS MORNING. DO THINK THE CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE THE UPPER CLOUDINESS WILL
BE MORE SCT THAN BKN. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...AROUND 040-050. MODELS/SOUNDINGS WANT TO TAKE THE WIND
DIRECTION A LITTLE EAST OF SOUTH FRIDAY EVE. SPEEDS LESS THAN 5KT
ARE FORECAST SO WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE WEST SOUTH OF SOUTH AT THIS
TIME. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN N OF ATL THIS AFT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 85 62 83 63 / 20 20 60 60
ATLANTA 83 65 82 66 / 20 20 60 60
BLAIRSVILLE 77 60 76 61 / 30 30 70 60
CARTERSVILLE 81 62 81 64 / 30 30 60 60
COLUMBUS 85 65 86 67 / 20 10 40 40
GAINESVILLE 82 63 79 63 / 30 30 70 60
MACON 86 62 86 64 / 10 10 40 50
ROME 82 63 81 64 / 30 30 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 83 61 83 64 / 20 20 40 60
VIDALIA 87 67 88 67 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 170119 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED POPS AND
FOCUSED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MORE ON THE WESTERN SIDE
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SOME SHOWERS OVER AL. ALTHOUGH VORT MAX IS
PEGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NW GA AROUND SUNRISE...BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DID REDUCE POPS
SLIGHTLY AND CUT BACK ON THE AREA FOR TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
BESIDES AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES...REST OF TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
WERE ONLY MINOR TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SCATTERING OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ATL WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL BLEND. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DAMPEN INTO THE MAIN
LONGWAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD MAINLY
SERVE TO BRING AN ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ADDING SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. FORECAST CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAVING THE MAIN THREATS OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND...WHEN THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS.
FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
CONTINUING TO BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BAKER
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH QPF BETWEEN
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DISAGREE...EVEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS
STILL ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY. HAVE GENERALLY MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP...HAVE AVOID MAKING WHOLESCALE CHANGES
AT THIS TIME. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED IN GRIDS...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ON MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
31
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY...SO HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN GA...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF....SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO LOW END SCT/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA. DO THINK CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFF TO THE EAST.
POPS WILL REMAIN SCT/ISO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS
PRECIP WILL BE TO THE NORTH...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COULD
ENHANCE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE WARM
FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FROPA A LITTLE...WITH THE FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE CWFA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 751 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND CU FIELD WITH SCT050 WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN THE
FORECAST. SHOULD REMAIN SSW TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW EVENING...THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. FOR NOW
ADVERTISING SSW AROUND 00Z TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT COULD BECOME SSE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 60 85 62 83 / 10 20 20 40
ATLANTA 64 83 65 82 / 10 20 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 56 77 60 76 / 10 40 40 70
CARTERSVILLE 59 81 62 81 / 10 30 30 50
COLUMBUS 63 85 65 86 / 10 10 10 30
GAINESVILLE 62 82 63 79 / 10 30 30 50
MACON 59 86 62 86 / 10 10 10 30
ROME 59 82 63 81 / 20 30 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 57 83 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
VIDALIA 65 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11
000
FXUS62 KFFC 162351 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SCATTERING OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ATL WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN
FAR NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM SO HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL BLEND. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DAMPEN INTO THE MAIN
LONGWAVE ENERGY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD MAINLY
SERVE TO BRING AN ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ADDING SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. FORECAST CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAVING THE MAIN THREATS OF OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND...WHEN THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS.
FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
CONTINUING TO BE AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BAKER
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH QPF BETWEEN
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DISAGREE...EVEN THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS
STILL ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY. HAVE GENERALLY MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP...HAVE AVOID MAKING WHOLESCALE CHANGES
AT THIS TIME. FOR SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED IN GRIDS...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ON MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
31
/ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY...SO HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN GA...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF....SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO LOW END SCT/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA. DO THINK CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFF TO THE EAST.
POPS WILL REMAIN SCT/ISO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS
PRECIP WILL BE TO THE NORTH...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COULD
ENHANCE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE WARM
FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FROPA A LITTLE...WITH THE FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE CWFA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND CU FIELD WITH SCT050 WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN THE
FORECAST. SHOULD REMAIN SSW TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW EVENING...THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AGAIN IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. FOR NOW
ADVERTISING SSW AROUND 00Z TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT COULD BECOME SSE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 60 85 62 83 / 20 20 20 40
ATLANTA 64 83 65 82 / 10 20 30 40
BLAIRSVILLE 56 77 60 76 / 30 40 40 70
CARTERSVILLE 59 81 62 81 / 20 30 30 50
COLUMBUS 63 85 65 86 / 10 10 20 30
GAINESVILLE 62 82 63 79 / 20 30 30 50
MACON 59 86 62 86 / 10 10 20 30
ROME 59 82 63 81 / 20 30 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 57 83 61 83 / 10 20 20 30
VIDALIA 65 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11
| 
