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000
FXUS62 KFFC 041851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 8 AM THURS MORNING TO 11 PM THURS
NIGHT FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A RATHER UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR
EARLY MAY. STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER S GREAT LAKES IN PROCESS OF
PUSHING SOUTH INTO OH VALLEY AT AFD ISSUANCE / WHICH WILL HELP SET
UP A TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK BY 12Z THURS/. SEVERAL
POTENT VORT MAXES WITHIN THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS OH AND WV...DRAGGING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL FRONT INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CU DECK AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SAT/OBS SHOW AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ATL METRO
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE NICE MID/UPPER JET FORCING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...ALONG WITH STRONG 500MB TEMP/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO DO EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITSELF.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL: WITH 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS -20C ATOP
MODEST SFC HEATING...EXPECT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR THUNDER. LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM SHEAR
30-40KTS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF GRAUPEL/HAIL IN STRONGEST
CONVECTION. NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED. THUNDER POTENTIAL TO DROP
OFF AROUND 02Z.

WINTER POTENTIAL: YES...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.  PREFER THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH DOES PUSH H85 0C
LINE/SUB 540DM LING ALONG NORTHEAST GA BORDER. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW AND LOW TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...A
FLAKE OR TWO MAY STILL PUSH OUT ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NE GA.
THINK BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO DID NOT MENTION IN
GRIDS.

THURSDAY...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPS
/HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS LIKELY ACROSS
NORTH GA...ESPECIALLY THE MTNS...AS COLD CORE LOW DIGS DEEPER INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY WANE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NIL INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT THUNDER.

KOVACIK

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

REFRESHED FCST PERIOD WITH RECENT BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH
RESULTED IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST. BACKDOOR
FRONT MONDAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA SO KEPT DRY CONDITIONS. SOME
MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FETCH
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST SO MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GREATEST
CHANCE CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY NORTH GA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS ALL TAF SITES IN SCT 050-060 DECK AT 18Z.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU THE PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /INCLUDING ATL/ MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00-03Z.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SHRA TEMPO. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE NW
SIDE WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO NEAR
30KT TOMORROW MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY MAY CLIP AHN
..BUT SHOULD NOT BOTHER OTHER SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

KOVACIK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  67  47  74 /  40  30   5   5
ATLANTA         49  65  49  72 /  40  10   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  58  45  67 /  40  30  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    47  64  45  72 /  40  20   5   5
COLUMBUS        52  70  49  75 /  30   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     48  62  49  71 /  40  30   5   5
MACON           50  70  47  75 /  20  10   5   5
ROME            47  65  46  73 /  40  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  67  45  72 /  40  10   5   5
VIDALIA         55  72  50  74 /  20   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOVACIK
LONG TERM....41/BAKER
AVIATION...KOVACIK





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WITH SCT CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORNING EVALUATION OF LATEST DATA SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER W GREAT LAKES. STRONG VORT MAXES ROTATING ALONG
W PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TOO AS 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TOWARDS -20C...ALLOWING
FOR 100-400J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR NATURE TO THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
AS THEY MOVE INTO NW GA AROUND 21Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON FRONTAL FORCING AND PROGGED DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40KTS. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.


KOVACIK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS ALL TAF SITES IN SCT 050-060 DECK AT 18Z.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU THE PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /INCLUDING ATL/ MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00-03Z.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SHRA TEMPO. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE NW
SIDE WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO NEAR
30KT TOMORROW MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY MAY CLIP AHN
...BUT SHOULD NOT BOTHER OTHER SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

KOVACIK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  20  40  30   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  30  40  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  40  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  40  20   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  20  30   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  30  40  30   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  20  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  20  40  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOVACIK
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...KOVACIK





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WITH SCT CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORNING EVALUATION OF LATEST DATA SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER W GREAT LAKES. STRONG VORT MAXES ROTATING ALONG
W PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TOO AS 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TOWARDS -20C...ALLOWING
FOR 100-400J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR NATURE TO THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
AS THEY MOVE INTO NW GA AROUND 21Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON FRONTAL FORCING AND PROGGED DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40KTS. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.


KOVACIK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS ALL TAF SITES IN SCT 050-060 DECK AT 18Z.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU THE PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
TAF SITES /INCLUDING ATL/ MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00-03Z.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SHRA TEMPO. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE NW
SIDE WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 20KT RANGE TODAY...INCREASING TO NEAR
30KT TOMORROW MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THURSDAY MAY CLIP AHN
...BUT SHOULD NOT BOTHER OTHER SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

KOVACIK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  20  40  30   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  30  40  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  40  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  40  20   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  20  30   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  30  40  30   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  20  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  20  40  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOVACIK
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...KOVACIK





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041444
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016



.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WITH SCT CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORNING EVALUATION OF LATEST DATA SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER W GREAT LAKES. STRONG VORT MAXES ROTATING ALONG
W PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TOO AS 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TOWARDS -20C...ALLOWING
FOR 100-400J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR NATURE TO THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
AS THEY MOVE INTO NW GA AROUND 21Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON FRONTAL FORCING AND PROGGED DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40KTS. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.


KOVACIK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. RAIN
CHANCES TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.../THOUGH
HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE 00-03Z/. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 22-23KT. GUSTS DROP OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE...13-18KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30KT BY MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  20  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  30  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  10  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  10  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOVACIK
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...KOVACIK





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041444
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016



.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...WITH SCT CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY MOST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORNING EVALUATION OF LATEST DATA SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER W GREAT LAKES. STRONG VORT MAXES ROTATING ALONG
W PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TOO AS 500MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TOWARDS -20C...ALLOWING
FOR 100-400J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR NATURE TO THE SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
AS THEY MOVE INTO NW GA AROUND 21Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED
ON FRONTAL FORCING AND PROGGED DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-40KTS. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.


KOVACIK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. RAIN
CHANCES TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.../THOUGH
HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE 00-03Z/. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 22-23KT. GUSTS DROP OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE...13-18KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30KT BY MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  20  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  30  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  10  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  10  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOVACIK
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...KOVACIK





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. RAIN
CHANCES TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.../THOUGH
HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE 00-03Z/. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 22-23KT. GUSTS DROP OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE...13-18KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30KT BY MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  20  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  30  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  10  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  10  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AFTER 18Z. RAIN
CHANCES TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.../THOUGH
HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE 00-03Z/. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 22-23KT. GUSTS DROP OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE...13-18KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30KT BY MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  20  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  30  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  10  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  10  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040821
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.


31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.


41


&&



AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GA /AND THE NORTHERN TAF SITES/ BY
18Z...GENERALLY 4-6KFT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD STAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE ATL METRO SITES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME /THOUGH HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE
00-03Z IF A PROB30 WERE TO BE INCLUDED AT A LATER POINT/. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 10-14KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-22KT BY 20Z. GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF IN THE EVENING...WITH
SUSTAINED 8-12KT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  20  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  30  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  10  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  10  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040821
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE CWA THIS MORNING...TAKING WITH IT THE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND PRECIP. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAR
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
AS TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION AND SLINGS SHORTWAVE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD MID LEVEL AIR...EXPECT SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST MORE OF AN ORGANIZED NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...THOUGH
DEVELOPING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE
INCREASING POPS BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
/GOOD CHANCE POPS/ THIS EVENING. WITHIN TOLERANCE BUT ON THE LOW
SIDE COMPARED TO THE NEIGHBORS AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
CONSERVATIVE IF THE CONVECTION DOES TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR
FORM.

AS CLOSED TROUGH SPINS OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
GENERALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THIS
TIME SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TODAY HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...BUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLIER AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S /UPPER 30S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST/ THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.


31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER CLOSED LOW CIRCULATING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. GFS ESPECIALLY HINTS THAT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
COULD STILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT.
MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND. A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO THE GA
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW. POPS RETURNING
MAINLY TO NORTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY.


41


&&



AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GA /AND THE NORTHERN TAF SITES/ BY
18Z...GENERALLY 4-6KFT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD STAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE ATL METRO SITES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME /THOUGH HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE
00-03Z IF A PROB30 WERE TO BE INCLUDED AT A LATER POINT/. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 10-14KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-22KT BY 20Z. GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF IN THE EVENING...WITH
SUSTAINED 8-12KT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  67  47 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         72  49  65  49 /  20  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  44  58  45 /  30  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  47  64  45 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        76  52  70  49 /  10  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     70  48  62  49 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           76  50  70  47 /  10  10  10   5
ROME            73  47  65  46 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  48  67  45 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         78  55  72  50 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040658
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND
FIELD.

POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GA /AND THE NORTHERN TAF SITES/ BY
18Z...GENERALLY 4-6KFT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD STAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE ATL METRO SITES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME /THOUGH HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE
00-03Z IF A PROB30 WERE TO BE INCLUDED AT A LATER POINT/. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 10-14KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-22KT BY 20Z. GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF IN THE EVENING...WITH
SUSTAINED 8-12KT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  51  67  48 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         71  52  65  50 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     66  45  58  45 /  40  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  49  65  46 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        75  56  69  50 /   5  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     70  50  63  49 /  20  20  10   5
MACON           76  53  70  48 /   5  10   5   5
ROME            72  48  66  46 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  50  67  46 /  10  20   5   5
VIDALIA         78  57  71  51 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 032345 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND
FIELD.

POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 5K TO 7K FT. A BREEZY NW WIND WILL
PREVAIL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  74  51  67 /  20  10  20  10
ATLANTA         55  71  52  65 /  20  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     49  66  45  58 /  10  40  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  71  49  65 /  10  30  30  10
COLUMBUS        57  75  56  69 /  20   5  10   5
GAINESVILLE     54  70  50  63 /  10  20  20  10
MACON           57  76  53  70 /  40   5  10   5
ROME            51  72  48  66 /  10  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  72  50  67 /  20  10  20   5
VIDALIA         62  78  57  71 /  60  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/16
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER/16





000
FXUS62 KFFC 032345 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND
FIELD.

POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS FROM 5K TO 7K FT. A BREEZY NW WIND WILL
PREVAIL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  74  51  67 /  20  10  20  10
ATLANTA         55  71  52  65 /  20  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     49  66  45  58 /  10  40  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  71  49  65 /  10  30  30  10
COLUMBUS        57  75  56  69 /  20   5  10   5
GAINESVILLE     54  70  50  63 /  10  20  20  10
MACON           57  76  53  70 /  40   5  10   5
ROME            51  72  48  66 /  10  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  72  50  67 /  20  10  20   5
VIDALIA         62  78  57  71 /  60  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/16
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER/16





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND
FIELD.

POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING /JUST INITIAL VCSH FOR KAHN/ AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE GRADUAL FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST. MAINLY LOW END VFR
CIGS INITIALLY WITH SOME LIFTING INTO 5-7 KFT RANGE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE SCATTERING FROM THE NORTHERN SITES SOUTH
FROM 00-03Z. NW WINDS STAYING ENHANCED 6-10 KTS BEHIND FRONT
OVERNIGHT...THEN LOW END GUSTS FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH BUT TOO LOW CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  74  51  67 /  20  10  20  10
ATLANTA         55  71  52  65 /  20  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     49  66  45  58 /  10  40  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  71  49  65 /  10  30  30  10
COLUMBUS        57  75  56  69 /  20   5  10   5
GAINESVILLE     54  70  50  63 /  10  20  20  10
MACON           57  76  53  70 /  40   5  10   5
ROME            51  72  48  66 /  10  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  72  50  67 /  20  10  20   5
VIDALIA         62  78  57  71 /  60  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031840
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE CONVECTION IN SE PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SPC DAY 1 DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RISK IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MARGINAL FOR NEARLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF FROM COLUMBUS TO
ATHENS AND FARTHER EAST. THINKING BASED ON FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...AND ANY DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL PREVIOUS
POPS/THUNDER MENTION IS ON TRACK OVERALL. SREF PROGGED SBCAPE GETS
NEAR 1250-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS BULK 0-6KM SHEAR...ALONG WITH
MACON BUFR SOUNDING SHOWING DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO
AGREE WITH SPC ON WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT.
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS...TO MACON...TO LOUISVILLE LINE. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS GIVEN DRIER AIR ADVECTION FROM NW
AND LINGERING CLOUD DECK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT
HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH
IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO
HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING /JUST INITIAL VCSH FOR KAHN/ AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE GRADUAL FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST. MAINLY LOW END VFR
CIGS INITIALLY WITH SOME LIFTING INTO 5-7 KFT RANGE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE SCATTERING FROM THE NORTHERN SITES SOUTH
FROM 00-03Z. NW WINDS STAYING ENHANCED 6-10 KTS BEHIND FRONT
OVERNIGHT...THEN LOW END GUSTS FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH BUT TOO LOW CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  54  74  51 /  50  20  10  20
ATLANTA         76  55  71  52 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  49  66  45 /  60  10  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  71  49 /  30  10  30  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  75  56 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  54  70  50 /  60  10  20  20
MACON           82  57  76  53 /  60  40   5  10
ROME            75  51  72  48 /  30  10  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  52  72  50 /  40  20  10  20
VIDALIA         84  62  78  57 /  70  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031840
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE CONVECTION IN SE PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SPC DAY 1 DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RISK IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MARGINAL FOR NEARLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF FROM COLUMBUS TO
ATHENS AND FARTHER EAST. THINKING BASED ON FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...AND ANY DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL PREVIOUS
POPS/THUNDER MENTION IS ON TRACK OVERALL. SREF PROGGED SBCAPE GETS
NEAR 1250-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS BULK 0-6KM SHEAR...ALONG WITH
MACON BUFR SOUNDING SHOWING DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO
AGREE WITH SPC ON WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT.
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS...TO MACON...TO LOUISVILLE LINE. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS GIVEN DRIER AIR ADVECTION FROM NW
AND LINGERING CLOUD DECK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT
HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH
IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO
HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
TSRA CHANCES MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING /JUST INITIAL VCSH FOR KAHN/ AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE GRADUAL FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST. MAINLY LOW END VFR
CIGS INITIALLY WITH SOME LIFTING INTO 5-7 KFT RANGE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE SCATTERING FROM THE NORTHERN SITES SOUTH
FROM 00-03Z. NW WINDS STAYING ENHANCED 6-10 KTS BEHIND FRONT
OVERNIGHT...THEN LOW END GUSTS FOR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH BUT TOO LOW CHANCE TO INCLUDE AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  54  74  51 /  50  20  10  20
ATLANTA         76  55  71  52 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  49  66  45 /  60  10  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  71  49 /  30  10  30  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  75  56 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  54  70  50 /  60  10  20  20
MACON           82  57  76  53 /  60  40   5  10
ROME            75  51  72  48 /  30  10  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  52  72  50 /  40  20  10  20
VIDALIA         84  62  78  57 /  70  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031453
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE CONVECTION IN SE PORTION OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SPC DAY 1 DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RISK IN FAR SE ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MARGINAL FOR NEARLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF FROM COLUMBUS TO
ATHENS AND FARTHER EAST. THINKING BASED ON FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...AND ANY DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL PREVIOUS
POPS/THUNDER MENTION IS ON TRACK OVERALL. SREF PROGGED SBCAPE GETS
NEAR 1250-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS BULK 0-6KM SHEAR...ALONG WITH
MACON BUFR SOUNDING SHOWING DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO
AGREE WITH SPC ON WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENT.
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS...TO MACON...TO LOUISVILLE LINE. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS GIVEN DRIER AIR ADVECTION FROM NW
AND LINGERING CLOUD DECK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT
HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH
IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO
HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ATL AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTH AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. IFR WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18Z AT NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT -TSRA AT CSG AND MCN
GENERALLY 18-20Z. GENERALLY W-NW WINDS AT 8-12KT THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 6-10KT OVERNIGHT. VRB GUSTS IN/NEAR
CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS CONVECTION
MOVES OUT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  54  74  49 /  50  20  20  10
ATLANTA         76  55  71  50 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  48  67  44 /  60  10  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  71  46 /  30  10  20  40
COLUMBUS        80  58  75  53 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  53  70  48 /  60  20  20  30
MACON           82  56  77  50 /  60  40  10  10
ROME            75  50  71  47 /  30  10  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  52  72  47 /  40  20  20  20
VIDALIA         84  62  79  54 /  70  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT
HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH
IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO
HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ATL AREA THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTH AS
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. IFR WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18Z AT NORTHERN SITES. EXPECT -TSRA AT CSG AND MCN
GENERALLY 18-20Z. GENERALLY W-NW WINDS AT 8-12KT THROUGH THE
DAY...DECREASING TO 6-10KT OVERNIGHT. VRB GUSTS IN/NEAR
CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS CONVECTION
MOVES OUT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  54  74  49 /  50  20  20  10
ATLANTA         76  55  71  50 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  48  67  44 /  60  10  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  71  46 /  30  10  20  40
COLUMBUS        80  58  75  53 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  53  70  48 /  60  20  20  30
MACON           82  56  77  50 /  60  40  10  10
ROME            75  50  71  47 /  30  10  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  52  72  47 /  40  20  20  20
VIDALIA         84  62  79  54 /  70  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 030843
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD DRAWING TO A CLOSE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PROMINENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS GEORGIA AS SURFACE FRONT
HANGS BACK ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. MAY HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS
TO QUICKLY OVER THE NORTH FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
UPDATE AS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING -SHRA OVER AL. AMPLE MOISTURE IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
TODAY THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION WITH
IT. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...LARGELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
HARTWELL WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/MODELED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG /. HAVE LIMITED BEST POPS TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND KEPT THUNDER MENTION LIMITED TO
HIGHEST POP AREAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS FRONT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHWARD...POPS WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS POSITIONS GEORGIA IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. BEGIN TO SEE
SOME INFLUENCE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE IN THE GRIDS.


31


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LARGELY NOT
AT TAF SITES. DEGRADING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE IFR AT ALL
SITES BY 09-11Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE 15-18Z AT THE ATL TAF SITES...AND -TSRA POSSIBLE AT CSG
AND MCN FOR GENERALLY 16-20Z. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 8-12KT.
VRB GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  54  74  49 /  30  20  20  10
ATLANTA         76  55  71  50 /  30  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  48  67  44 /  30  10  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  71  46 /  30  10  20  40
COLUMBUS        80  58  75  53 /  50  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  53  70  48 /  30  20  20  30
MACON           82  56  77  50 /  60  40  10  10
ROME            75  50  71  47 /  20  10  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  78  52  72  47 /  40  20  20  20
VIDALIA         84  62  79  54 /  70  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 030711
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS CLEARING OUT TUESDAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE
UNORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS MS/WESTERN TN BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36HOURS. BY
12ZTUESDAY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS GA NEAR AN AUGUSTA
TO PENSACOLA FL LINE. IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z WED USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR TODAY THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA THEN
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL
GA TUESDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE BROUGHT POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS PER THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WHICH
BRINGS MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY 00Z THU. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT LARGELY NOT
AT TAF SITES. DEGRADING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE IFR AT ALL
SITES BY 09-11Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE 15-18Z AT THE ATL TAF SITES...AND -TSRA POSSIBLE AT CSG
AND MCN FOR GENERALLY 16-20Z. SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT 8-12KT.
VRB GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN/NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  54  75  50 /  30  20  10  20
ATLANTA         76  55  73  51 /  30  20   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  68  45 /  40  20  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    75  51  73  48 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        79  56  76  54 /  60  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     76  54  71  50 /  30  20  10  30
MACON           81  56  77  52 /  60  30  10  10
ROME            76  51  74  48 /  30  10  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  73  50 /  30  20   5  20
VIDALIA         83  61  78  56 /  60  60  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 030007
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS CLEARING OUT TUESDAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE
UNORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS MS/WESTERN TN BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36HOURS. BY
12ZTUESDAY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS GA NEAR AN AUGUSTA
TO PENSACOLA FL LINE. IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z WED USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR TODAY THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA THEN
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL
GA TUESDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE BROUGHT POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS PER THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WHICH
BRINGS MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY 00Z THU. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

LINE OF TSRA CONTINUES ITS STEADY PROGRESSION TOWARD THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM AHEAD AS WELL AS
EVIDENCED BY ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD MCN. OVERALL THROUGH...LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE THE MAIN PLAYER AND MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 01Z AND
04Z FOR ATL AREA AND 04Z TO 08Z FOR MCN ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION
REMAINS HOW IN TACT LINE WILL BE BY THEN. IFR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE
LINE TOWARD TUE MORNING AND WILL HANG ONTO IT THROUGH MID MORNING.
STILL A THREAT FOR ANOTHER DEVELOPING LINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
END SHRA CHANCES FOR ATL AND HIGHER END TSRA CHANCES FOR CSG AND
ESPECIALLY MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  79  54  75 /  60  30  20  10
ATLANTA         63  76  55  73 /  60  30  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  73  49  68 /  70  40  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    61  75  51  73 /  70  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        65  79  56  76 /  40  40  20   5
GAINESVILLE     62  76  54  71 /  70  30  20  10
MACON           65  81  56  77 /  60  50  30  10
ROME            60  76  51  74 /  70  30  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  62  76  51  73 /  60  30  20   5
VIDALIA         68  83  61  78 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 030007
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS CLEARING OUT TUESDAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE
UNORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS MS/WESTERN TN BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36HOURS. BY
12ZTUESDAY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS GA NEAR AN AUGUSTA
TO PENSACOLA FL LINE. IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z WED USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR TODAY THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA THEN
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL
GA TUESDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE BROUGHT POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS PER THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WHICH
BRINGS MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY 00Z THU. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

LINE OF TSRA CONTINUES ITS STEADY PROGRESSION TOWARD THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM AHEAD AS WELL AS
EVIDENCED BY ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD MCN. OVERALL THROUGH...LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE THE MAIN PLAYER AND MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 01Z AND
04Z FOR ATL AREA AND 04Z TO 08Z FOR MCN ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION
REMAINS HOW IN TACT LINE WILL BE BY THEN. IFR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE
LINE TOWARD TUE MORNING AND WILL HANG ONTO IT THROUGH MID MORNING.
STILL A THREAT FOR ANOTHER DEVELOPING LINE TUE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
END SHRA CHANCES FOR ATL AND HIGHER END TSRA CHANCES FOR CSG AND
ESPECIALLY MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  79  54  75 /  60  30  20  10
ATLANTA         63  76  55  73 /  60  30  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  73  49  68 /  70  40  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    61  75  51  73 /  70  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        65  79  56  76 /  40  40  20   5
GAINESVILLE     62  76  54  71 /  70  30  20  10
MACON           65  81  56  77 /  60  50  30  10
ROME            60  76  51  74 /  70  30  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  62  76  51  73 /  60  30  20   5
VIDALIA         68  83  61  78 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 021832
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
232 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THINGS CLEARING OUT TUESDAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A LARGE
UNORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS MS/WESTERN TN BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36HOURS. BY
12ZTUESDAY THIS FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS GA NEAR AN AUGUSTA
TO PENSACOLA FL LINE. IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
12Z WED USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR TODAY THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA THEN
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR CENTRAL
GA TUESDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
STAYS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND MOVES SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT TUESDAY.


01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE BROUGHT POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND INCREASED POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS PER THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF WHICH
BRINGS MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF NORTH GA BY 00Z THU. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LIKE YESTERDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES WILL BE
BETWEEN 19Z-03Z. WILL SEE MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE SW AT
10KT OR LESS. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W THEN THE NW WITH WINDS SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15KT. VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET BELOW VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY ABOVE VFR LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WILL SEE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z-15Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GET
BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AFTER 18Z-20Z TUESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  79  54  75 /  60  30  20  10
ATLANTA         63  76  55  73 /  60  30  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     59  73  49  68 /  70  40  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    61  75  51  73 /  70  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        65  79  56  76 /  40  40  20   5
GAINESVILLE     62  76  54  71 /  70  30  20  10
MACON           65  81  56  77 /  60  50  30  10
ROME            60  76  51  74 /  70  30  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  62  76  51  73 /  60  30  20   5
VIDALIA         68  83  61  78 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 021145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES
OF IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH
INDICATING LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
CONSENSUS IS FOR A LATER START IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
BEING SAID...THESE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING DIFFICULTIES
RESOLVING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FOR NOW...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WITH INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME MODELS SUGGEST
BEST MUCAPE TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG
IN NE GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS LARGELY
NORTH GEORGIA WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...WITH BEST
CHANCES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SPC
DOES HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN
RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY MID/LATE MORNING. MAY HAVE YIELDED A TAD ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND DROPPED POPS TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME STILL FEEL THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE STATE...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA ON TUESDAY.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY FOR A WHILE /AT LEAST UNTIL
SUNDAY/. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE 80S...BUT COOLING
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 70S. THIS COOLER TREND CONTINUES
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGELY VFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALREADY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY LATER START TO CONVECTION /GENERALLY 20Z AND
AFTER...AND HAVE GONE PREVAILING FOR -TSRA. WINDS WILL BE SW AT
6-10KT THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. CIGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON CIGS WITH CONVECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  79  54 /  60  60  30  20
ATLANTA         82  63  76  55 /  60  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     77  59  73  49 /  70  70  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  61  75  51 /  70  70  30  10
COLUMBUS        85  65  79  57 /  50  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     79  62  76  54 /  70  70  30  10
MACON           86  65  81  56 /  60  60  50  20
ROME            80  60  76  51 /  70  70  30   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  62  76  51 /  60  60  40  10
VIDALIA         86  68  83  61 /  60  60  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 020825
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
425 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES
OF IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE STATE WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH
INDICATING LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
CONSENSUS IS FOR A LATER START IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
BEING SAID...THESE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING DIFFICULTIES
RESOLVING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FOR NOW...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WITH INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME MODELS SUGGEST
BEST MUCAPE TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG
IN NE GEORGIA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS LARGELY
NORTH GEORGIA WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...WITH BEST
CHANCES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SPC
DOES HAVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...POPS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN
RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY MID/LATE MORNING. MAY HAVE YIELDED A TAD ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE AND DROPPED POPS TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME STILL FEEL THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE STATE...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA ON TUESDAY.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY FOR A WHILE /AT LEAST UNTIL
SUNDAY/. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE 80S...BUT COOLING
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 70S. THIS COOLER TREND CONTINUES
INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.


31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL GA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...SO POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASING AFTER THAT. GENERAL TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH GA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SO POPS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE NORTH HALF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CIRCULATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STAY EAST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING US DRY.

41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGELY VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT MVFR LAYER DEVELOP 10-12Z. EXPECT
LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER
20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 6-8KT THROUGH THE DAY. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 15Z.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  63  79  54 /  60  60  30  20
ATLANTA         82  63  76  55 /  60  60  30  10
BLAIRSVILLE     77  59  73  49 /  70  70  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  61  75  51 /  70  70  30  10
COLUMBUS        85  65  79  57 /  50  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     79  62  76  54 /  70  70  30  10
MACON           86  65  81  56 /  60  60  50  20
ROME            80  60  76  51 /  70  70  30   5
PEACHTREE CITY  83  62  76  51 /  60  60  40  10
VIDALIA         86  68  83  61 /  60  60  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 020630
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...

AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
EXPECTED CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE HIGH RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
MONDAY WITH WHEN AND WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK
UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGELY VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT MVFR LAYER DEVELOP 10-12Z. EXPECT
LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY...IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER
20Z. WINDS WILL BE SW AT 6-8KT THROUGH THE DAY. DEGRADED
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 15Z.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  62  78  55 /  60  60  40  20
ATLANTA         81  62  74  55 /  60  60  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     76  58  70  50 /  70  70  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    80  61  74  52 /  70  70  30  10
COLUMBUS        84  65  79  57 /  50  50  40  20
GAINESVILLE     79  61  73  54 /  60  60  40  20
MACON           86  64  81  56 /  50  50  50  20
ROME            80  60  74  51 /  70  70  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  82  61  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
VIDALIA         87  68  83  63 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 020212
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY WITH WHEN AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

31

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH CSG IS BEGINNING TO GET IN ON THE
ACT AS WELL. HAVE HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR ATL FOR AN
HOUR FOR ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SOON.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REALLY
MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECTING A LATE START TO THE TSRA MONDAY AND HAVE
PUSHED BACK PROB30 TO 21Z AND 22Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSG AND AHN TONIGHT AND ISOLD REDUCTIONS TO VSBY
AT ATL TERMINALS DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  83  62  78 /  50  60  60  40
ATLANTA         66  81  62  74 /  50  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  76  58  70 /  50  70  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  80  61  74 /  50  70  70  30
COLUMBUS        67  84  65  79 /  40  50  50  40
GAINESVILLE     64  79  61  73 /  50  60  60  40
MACON           65  86  64  81 /  40  50  50  50
ROME            63  80  60  74 /  40  70  70  30
PEACHTREE CITY  62  82  61  76 /  50  60  60  40
VIDALIA         68  87  68  83 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 020032
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
832 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY WITH WHEN AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH CSG IS BEGINNING TO GET IN ON THE
ACT AS WELL. HAVE HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR ATL FOR AN
HOUR FOR ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SOON.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REALLY
MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECTING A LATE START TO THE TSRA MONDAY AND HAVE
PUSHED BACK PROB30 TO 21Z AND 22Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSG AND AHN TONIGHT AND ISOLD REDUCTIONS TO VSBY
AT ATL TERMINALS DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  83  62  78 /  50  60  60  40
ATLANTA         66  81  62  74 /  50  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  76  58  70 /  50  70  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  80  61  74 /  50  70  70  30
COLUMBUS        67  84  65  79 /  40  50  50  40
GAINESVILLE     64  79  61  73 /  50  60  60  40
MACON           65  86  64  81 /  40  50  50  50
ROME            63  80  60  74 /  40  70  70  30
PEACHTREE CITY  62  82  61  76 /  50  60  60  40
VIDALIA         68  87  68  83 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





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