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000
FXUS62 KFFC 221528 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1128 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS MARCHING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH AN
ENHANCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
CENTRAL GEORGIA RIGHT NOW. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE LINE IS HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING...BUT AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE SPC
CONTINUES THE 5% WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH IN LINE THIS MORNING BUT DRIER DEWPOINTS
ARE MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA A LITTLE FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY
PROGGED. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO UPDATE TRENDS.
OTHER BIG CHANGES HAVE JUST BEEN TO KEEP UP WITH HOURLY POPS BASED
ON RADAR AND HIRES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ALONG
THE FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND
TEMPO FOR ATL WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA
POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP INITIATE TEMPO FOR THEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /   0   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  60   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  60  30   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /   5   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  50   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221528 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1128 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS MARCHING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH AN
ENHANCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
CENTRAL GEORGIA RIGHT NOW. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE LINE IS HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING...BUT AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE SPC
CONTINUES THE 5% WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH IN LINE THIS MORNING BUT DRIER DEWPOINTS
ARE MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA A LITTLE FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY
PROGGED. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO UPDATE TRENDS.
OTHER BIG CHANGES HAVE JUST BEEN TO KEEP UP WITH HOURLY POPS BASED
ON RADAR AND HIRES REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ALONG
THE FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND
TEMPO FOR ATL WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA
POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP INITIATE TEMPO FOR THEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /   0   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  60   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  60  30   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /   5   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  50   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 221139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ALONG
THE FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND
TEMPO FOR ATL WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA
POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP INITIATE TEMPO FOR THEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /   0   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  60   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  60  30   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /   5   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  60   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 221139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA ALONG
THE FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND
TEMPO FOR ATL WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA
POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP INITIATE TEMPO FOR THEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   5   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /   0   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /   5   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  60   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  60  30   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /   5   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  60   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
.50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME SCATTERED SHRA ALONG FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA
TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY
WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 FOR THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /  10   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /  20   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  40   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  20   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  40  20   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /  10   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 220748
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO ATHENS AND ATLANTA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING
NICELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH MID 60S VALUES WHILE TO THE
NORTH...DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MARK NICELY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...CONTINUATION OF LOW
END CHANCE IS WARRANTED THROUGH DAYBREAK.

DIFFICULT CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
RUSH INTO THE STATE BUT LAGGING VORT MAX IS ESPECIALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND GENERATES A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIFT AS IT
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH. SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE AN EASY CALL AS ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS AS SHORT WAVE ARRIVES
AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL REALLY COOLED OFF DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH -11C TO -12C ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE WITH
HIGHEST THUNDER CHANCES. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EXTREME SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH
MODEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS.

FURTHER NORTH WILL BE A TOUGHER CALL AS DRY AIR COMPETES WITH
EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC LIFT. FOR MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...LOOKS LIKE
.50 TO .75 PWATS WILL BE JUST TOO LITTLE TO RESULT IN POPS BUT
VALUES CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH METRO WARRANTS KEEPING
IN SLIGHT CHANCE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINING OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS WITH A DRIER GFS AND WETTER EUROPEAN TO START UNTIL ABOUT
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

FAVORING A DRIER GFS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NO POPS OVER THE SE CWA AND
SORT OF A COMPROMISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR THE SE
CWA. AFTER WEDNESDAY TENDING TO LEAN TOWARD THE WETTER EUROPEAN WITH
MAINLY SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY INCREASING NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
WHEN BOTH MODELS INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM SW
UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WHEN MAINLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME SCATTERED SHRA ALONG FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA
TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY
WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 FOR THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  58  77  56 /  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  77  58 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     75  51  75  51 /  10   5   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    80  55  79  56 /  20   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  63  80  61 /  40   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     80  58  76  57 /  20   5   0   0
MACON           85  61  80  58 /  40  20   5   0
ROME            81  52  80  55 /  10   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  81  56  79  56 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         86  66  81  62 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HAVE CHOSEN TO SHOW IT CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD...BUT DECREASE THE COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. HRRR EXPANDS AREA OF PRECIP BY 14Z WHILE THE
LOCAL WRF ISNT QUITE THAT BOLD. CONSIDERING HRRR HAS BEEN OVERDONE
THIS SUMMER OVERALL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF. POP
GRIDS MAY STILL BE A TAD UNDERDONE THOUGH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX MAY HELP TO INCREASE
CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME SCATTERED SHRA ALONG FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA
TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY
WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 FOR THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  56  79  55 /  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  57  79  57 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  76  51 /   5   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    78  52  80  55 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  59  83  61 /  20   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     77  55  77  55 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           85  58  83  59 /  30   0   0   0
ROME            79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  52  80  55 /  20   0   0   0
VIDALIA         88  64  83  61 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HAVE CHOSEN TO SHOW IT CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD...BUT DECREASE THE COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. HRRR EXPANDS AREA OF PRECIP BY 14Z WHILE THE
LOCAL WRF ISNT QUITE THAT BOLD. CONSIDERING HRRR HAS BEEN OVERDONE
THIS SUMMER OVERALL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF. POP
GRIDS MAY STILL BE A TAD UNDERDONE THOUGH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX MAY HELP TO INCREASE
CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME SCATTERED SHRA ALONG FRONT TO DEAL WITH FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SO WILL EXTEND TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP ATL AREA
TERMINALS RAIN FREE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MCN WILL NOT BE SO LUCKY
WITH NOT ONLY BETTER SHRA POTENTIAL BUT TSRA AS WELL AND WILL KEEP
PROB30 FOR THEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  56  79  55 /  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  57  79  57 /  20   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  76  51 /   5   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    78  52  80  55 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        84  59  83  61 /  20   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     77  55  77  55 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           85  58  83  59 /  30   0   0   0
ROME            79  50  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  52  80  55 /  20   0   0   0
VIDALIA         88  64  83  61 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 220208 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HAVE CHOSEN TO SHOW IT CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD...BUT DECREASE THE COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. HRRR EXPANDS AREA OF PRECIP BY 14Z WHILE THE
LOCAL WRF ISNT QUITE THAT BOLD. CONSIDERING HRRR HAS BEEN OVERDONE
THIS SUMMER OVERALL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF. POP
GRIDS MAY STILL BE A TAD UNDERDONE THOUGH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX MAY HELP TO INCREASE
CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE ATL AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH AS IT MAKES IT INTO
THE ATL AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL MONITOR AND IF THE LINE HOLDS
TOGETHER WILL AMEND FOR SHRA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  56  79 /  30  20   0   0
ATLANTA         64  80  57  79 /  30  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     56  74  48  76 /  30   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  78  52  80 /  30   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  84  59  83 /  20  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  77  55  77 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           65  85  58  83 /  20  30   0   0
ROME            60  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  80  52  80 /  20  20   0   0
VIDALIA         66  88  64  83 /   5  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 220208 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PRECIP WILL PLAY OUT LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL HAVE CHOSEN TO SHOW IT CONTINUING TO
SINK SOUTHWARD...BUT DECREASE THE COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. HRRR EXPANDS AREA OF PRECIP BY 14Z WHILE THE
LOCAL WRF ISNT QUITE THAT BOLD. CONSIDERING HRRR HAS BEEN OVERDONE
THIS SUMMER OVERALL...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE LOCAL WRF. POP
GRIDS MAY STILL BE A TAD UNDERDONE THOUGH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX MAY HELP TO INCREASE
CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE ATL AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH AS IT MAKES IT INTO
THE ATL AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL MONITOR AND IF THE LINE HOLDS
TOGETHER WILL AMEND FOR SHRA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  56  79 /  30  20   0   0
ATLANTA         64  80  57  79 /  30  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     56  74  48  76 /  30   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  78  52  80 /  30   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  84  59  83 /  20  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  77  55  77 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           65  85  58  83 /  20  30   0   0
ROME            60  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  80  52  80 /  20  20   0   0
VIDALIA         66  88  64  83 /   5  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 212337 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE ATL AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH AS IT MAKES IT INTO
THE ATL AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL MONITOR AND IF THE LINE HOLDS
TOGETHER WILL AMEND FOR SHRA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  56  79 /  20  20   0   0
ATLANTA         64  80  57  79 /  20  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     56  74  48  76 /  30   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  78  52  80 /  30   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  84  59  83 /  20  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  77  55  77 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           65  85  58  83 /  20  30   0   0
ROME            60  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  80  52  80 /  20  20   0   0
VIDALIA         66  88  64  83 /   5  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 212337 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NW GEORGIA TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE ATL AREA.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH AS IT MAKES IT INTO
THE ATL AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL MONITOR AND IF THE LINE HOLDS
TOGETHER WILL AMEND FOR SHRA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  56  79 /  20  20   0   0
ATLANTA         64  80  57  79 /  20  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     56  74  48  76 /  30   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  78  52  80 /  30   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  84  59  83 /  20  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  77  55  77 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           65  85  58  83 /  20  30   0   0
ROME            60  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  80  52  80 /  20  20   0   0
VIDALIA         66  88  64  83 /   5  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 211917
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!


TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT CU 4-5KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COULD SEE ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN TAFS BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
POINT...WILL WATCH FOR ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD 5-10KT THIS AFTN WITH LOW-
END GUSTS...SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO IMPACT ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  56  79 /  30  20   0   0
ATLANTA         64  80  57  79 /  30  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     56  74  48  76 /  40   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  78  52  80 /  30   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  84  59  83 /  20  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  77  55  77 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           65  85  58  83 /  20  20   0   0
ROME            60  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  80  52  80 /  30  20   0   0
VIDALIA         66  88  64  83 /   5  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...TDP







000
FXUS62 KFFC 211917
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT AFD TIME WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. CAPE VALUES
ARE ON THE LOW END...GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...AND BEST PVA IS ACTUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DOES NOT
PUSH INTO GEORGIA REALLY UNTIL MONDAY SOMETIME. SO HAVE KEPT TREND
OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING LIMITED TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE WHAT CAPE MIGHT BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON QUICKLY DECREASES OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEW RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THIS SO LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NOT FORECAST QUITE AS COOL AS WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH A PRETTY STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING AROUND WITH THE SHARP TROUGH
ALOFT...EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THEN.
MUCAPES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE USES /NAM IS HIGHER AS USUAL/.
STILL HAVE LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS AT BEST BUT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS OVERNIGHT.

DEEP-LAYER CAA BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH THE CAA MODERATES EVER
SO SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW /5-10 DEGREES COOLER EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE QUITE MADE IT
THROUGH YET/ AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT /ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TONIGHT AGAIN EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES/. THE DECREASE
IN HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE VERY NOTICEABLE. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER!


TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SPREAD W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT CU 4-5KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COULD SEE ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN TAFS BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
POINT...WILL WATCH FOR ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD 5-10KT THIS AFTN WITH LOW-
END GUSTS...SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO IMPACT ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  56  79 /  30  20   0   0
ATLANTA         64  80  57  79 /  30  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     56  74  48  76 /  40   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  78  52  80 /  30   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        68  84  59  83 /  20  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  77  55  77 /  30   5   0   0
MACON           65  85  58  83 /  20  20   0   0
ROME            60  79  50  81 /  30   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  80  52  80 /  30  20   0   0
VIDALIA         66  88  64  83 /   5  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...TDP






000
FXUS62 KFFC 211736 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE
RIGHT NOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS IN EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA. THE
FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR
NOW...TIMING OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT CU 4-5KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COULD SEE ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN TAFS BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
POINT...WILL WATCH FOR ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD 5-10KT THIS AFTN WITH LOW-
END GUSTS...SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO IMPACT ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  20  20   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  20  20   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  20   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 211736 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE
RIGHT NOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS IN EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA. THE
FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR
NOW...TIMING OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW-SCT CU 4-5KFT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. COULD SEE ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN TAFS BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
POINT...WILL WATCH FOR ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.
EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD 5-10KT THIS AFTN WITH LOW-
END GUSTS...SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO IMPACT ATL.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  20  20   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  20  20   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  20   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211546 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1146 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE
RIGHT NOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS IN EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA. THE
FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR
NOW...TIMING OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 211546 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1146 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE
RIGHT NOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS IN EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA. THE
FRONT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR
NOW...TIMING OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 211139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET LAST NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULTED IN LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET AND LIKEWISE TO THE 12Z SET.
BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME
NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 18Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 210711
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET. BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH
SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME NORTH GA INTO THE ATL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO
ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST CONDITIONS COME
THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES WITH 12Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 210711
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS
WITHING WEAK RIDGE AXIS...SANDWICHED SAFELY BETWEEN COASTAL LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC LOW OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEARING THIS OUT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE AREA.

GREAT LAKES LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYERS
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE QUICK PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND BE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 18Z AND ON GEORGIA DOORSTEP BY 00Z. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IF THIS WERE A
PURE WINTER TIME SCENARIO...GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILE...THIS
WOULD BE AN EASY CALL WITH VERY LIMITED POPS TO BE ADVERTISED.
STILL BEING SEPTEMBER HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE TEMPS TODAY
MAXING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RESIDUAL CAPE VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IN FACT...MOST
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS CAPE AXIS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO BEFORE DECREASING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT RANGE REFLECTIVITY MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH HALF
SHOWING A DRY SCENARIO WHILE MODELS LIKE THE WRF INDICATE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN AGREEMENT ON CAPE VALUES...AND
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEANED WETTER WITH THIS FORECAST
WHICH STILL KEEPS EVERYONE IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW WITH CHANCE
THUNDER AS WELL.

THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY AS SLOWING FRONT TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO RESULT
IN INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS ADVERTISED FOR EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY THE CLOSE OF THE SHORT TERM.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
DIFFERING WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER E GA AND HOLDING ONTO MORE
MOIST AND PRECIP THAN THE GFS OR NAM. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THE GFS
AND NAM.

AGAIN FAVORING THE DRIER GFS AND NAM FOR TUESDAY AS DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO
MUCH OF GA.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MOISTURE FIELD AND LESS SO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A STABLE EAST FLOW
CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR CENTRAL GA INCREASING TO THE N
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST SO BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET. BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH
SHRA/TSRA WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME NORTH GA INTO THE ATL
TERMINALS AHEAD OF FRONT AND WILL THERE BE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO
ACCOMPANY IT. FOR NOW...GOING WITH RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AND DECK REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST CONDITIONS COME
THROUGH BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES WITH 12Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  65  81  58 /  10  30  20   0
ATLANTA         86  64  80  59 /  10  30  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  58  75  50 /  40  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  61  78  55 /  30  40   5   0
COLUMBUS        90  68  85  62 /   0  30  30   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  77  58 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           90  65  86  60 /   0  30  40   0
ROME            87  61  80  54 /  30  40   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  87  63  81  56 /   5  30  30   0
VIDALIA         90  67  88  65 /   5   5  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 210516
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
116 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER SE COUNTIES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. HWO ALREADY UPDATED.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SNELSON

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET. BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND WILL THERE BE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR
NOW...GOING WITH RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK
REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 12Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  65  81  55 /  10  30   5   0
ATLANTA         85  65  80  57 /  10  30   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  57  74  49 /  40  40  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    85  61  78  54 /  30  40  10   0
COLUMBUS        88  68  85  61 /   0  20  20   0
GAINESVILLE     83  65  77  55 /  30  40  10   0
MACON           87  64  85  58 /   0  20  20   0
ROME            85  60  79  52 /  30  40  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  86  63  82  54 /   5  30  20   0
VIDALIA         88  67  89  63 /   5   5  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 210516
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
116 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER SE COUNTIES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. HWO ALREADY UPDATED.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SNELSON

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INHERITED EXCELLENT AVIATION GRID SET WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANGES TO 06Z TAF SET. BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH SHRA/TSRA
WILL MAKE IT FROM EXTREME NORTH GA INTO THE ATL TERMINALS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND WILL THERE BE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK TO ACCOMPANY IT. FOR
NOW...GOING WITH RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AND DECK
REMAINING SCT AS THE LOWEST CONDITIONS COME THROUGH BUT WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES WITH 12Z FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON SHRA AND CIG POTENTIAL WITH FRONT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  65  81  55 /  10  30   5   0
ATLANTA         85  65  80  57 /  10  30   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     80  57  74  49 /  40  40  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    85  61  78  54 /  30  40  10   0
COLUMBUS        88  68  85  61 /   0  20  20   0
GAINESVILLE     83  65  77  55 /  30  40  10   0
MACON           87  64  85  58 /   0  20  20   0
ROME            85  60  79  52 /  30  40  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  86  63  82  54 /   5  30  20   0
VIDALIA         88  67  89  63 /   5   5  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 202356 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
756 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER SE COUNTIES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. HWO ALREADY UPDATED.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SNELSON

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT/SUNDAY. E-NE
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME WEST 2-4KTS AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE SOME
5-10KFT SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHRA AFTER 00Z MON AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN KATL FCST ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
AND ISOLD COVERAGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  87  65  81 /   0  10  30   5
ATLANTA         64  85  65  80 /   0  10  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  80  57  74 /   5  40  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  85  61  78 /   5  30  40  10
COLUMBUS        64  88  68  85 /   0   0  20  20
GAINESVILLE     64  83  65  77 /   5  30  40  10
MACON           60  87  64  85 /   5   0  20  20
ROME            61  85  60  79 /   5  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  86  63  82 /   0   5  30  20
VIDALIA         64  88  67  89 /  10   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KFFC 202356 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
756 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER SE COUNTIES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. HWO ALREADY UPDATED.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SNELSON

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT/SUNDAY. E-NE
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME WEST 2-4KTS AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE SOME
5-10KFT SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHRA AFTER 00Z MON AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN KATL FCST ATTM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
AND ISOLD COVERAGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  87  65  81 /   0  10  30   5
ATLANTA         64  85  65  80 /   0  10  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  80  57  74 /   5  40  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  85  61  78 /   5  30  40  10
COLUMBUS        64  88  68  85 /   0   0  20  20
GAINESVILLE     64  83  65  77 /   5  30  40  10
MACON           60  87  64  85 /   5   0  20  20
ROME            61  85  60  79 /   5  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  86  63  82 /   0   5  30  20
VIDALIA         64  88  67  89 /  10   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 202059 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER SE COUNTIES REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. HWO ALREADY UPDATED.
REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SNELSON

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE WIND CHANGE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT TO THE WNW AND COULD BE GUSTY
TOMORROW. WITH A DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE
THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVERY
SITE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  87  65  81 /   0  10  30   5
ATLANTA         64  85  65  80 /   0  10  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  80  57  74 /   5  40  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  85  61  78 /   5  30  40  10
COLUMBUS        64  88  68  85 /   0   0  20  20
GAINESVILLE     64  83  65  77 /   5  30  40  10
MACON           60  87  64  85 /   5   0  20  20
ROME            61  85  60  79 /   5  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  86  63  82 /   0   5  30  20
VIDALIA         64  88  67  89 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG










000
FXUS62 KFFC 201911
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ERODE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WNW TONIGHT
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE A GREAT LEAD IN TO FALL WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIR.

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN FRONT OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF DEPICTED A VORT MAX ENTERING MONDAY MORNING THAT
APPEARS STRONGER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. USING ONLY THE
OTHER MODELS THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR BEFORE
THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND THE VORT
FIELDS BELIEVE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GA. GFS BASED WRF
RUNS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION WHEREAS THE NAM WRF RUNS DO.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THESE IN THE VORT FIELD. THIS
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
OF THUNDER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DECIDED TO HANG ON TO
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND VORT MAX MOVE SOUTH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SEVERE...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MONDAY POST FRONT SHOULD BE VERY DRY...ON THE FIRST DAY OF FALL WE
WILL ACTUALLY SEE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY...USED A BCCONSALL TEMP FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ARG

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND VORT LOBE PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
USHERING MUCH IN A MUCH DRIER FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF DAMMING EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST ZONES IN MORE OF A DRY ONSET
CLASSICAL CAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A
CONTINUATION OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE WIND CHANGE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT TO THE WNW AND COULD BE GUSTY
TOMORROW. WITH A DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE
THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVERY
SITE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  87  65  81 /   0  10  30   5
ATLANTA         64  85  65  80 /   0  10  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  80  57  74 /   5  40  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  85  61  78 /   5  30  40  10
COLUMBUS        64  88  68  85 /   0   0  20  20
GAINESVILLE     64  83  65  77 /   5  30  40  10
MACON           60  87  64  85 /   5   0  20  20
ROME            61  85  60  79 /   5  30  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  86  63  82 /   0   5  30  20
VIDALIA         64  88  67  89 /  20   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201731 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
131 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS AND THE WEDGE IN PLACE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 80. NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS MADE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE AREA OF RAIN
FORECAST. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE WIND CHANGE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT TO THE WNW AND COULD BE GUSTY
TOMORROW. WITH A DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE
THE AREA AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVERY
SITE SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  59  86  66 /   5   0  10  30
ATLANTA         81  64  85  66 /   5   0  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  80  56 /   5   5  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   0   5  30  40
COLUMBUS        82  64  88  68 /   5   0   0  20
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5  30  40
MACON           82  60  86  64 /  20   5   0  20
ROME            83  60  85  61 /   0   5  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  81  58  86  64 /   5   0   5  30
VIDALIA         82  65  88  67 /  30  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201519 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS AND THE WEDGE IN PLACE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 80. NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS MADE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE AREA OF RAIN
FORECAST. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD THAT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST HAS NOW INFILTRATED MOST
OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AND WILL KEEP
MVFR ADVERTISED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AHN WHERE
HIGHER CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS
IN A LITTLE LONGER AND SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  59  86  66 /  10   0   5  10
ATLANTA         80  64  85  66 /  10   5   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  56 /   5   5  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   5   5   5  30
COLUMBUS        81  64  88  68 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5   5  20
MACON           81  60  86  64 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            84  60  85  61 /   5   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  80  58  86  64 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         81  65  88  67 /  40  20   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...







000
FXUS62 KFFC 201519 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1119 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS AND THE WEDGE IN PLACE SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND 80. NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS MADE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS
FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE AREA OF RAIN
FORECAST. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD THAT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST HAS NOW INFILTRATED MOST
OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AND WILL KEEP
MVFR ADVERTISED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AHN WHERE
HIGHER CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS
IN A LITTLE LONGER AND SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  59  86  66 /  10   0   5  10
ATLANTA         80  64  85  66 /  10   5   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  56 /   5   5  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   5   5   5  30
COLUMBUS        81  64  88  68 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5   5  20
MACON           81  60  86  64 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            84  60  85  61 /   5   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  80  58  86  64 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         81  65  88  67 /  40  20   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD THAT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST HAS NOW INFILTRATED MOST
OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AND WILL KEEP
MVFR ADVERTISED AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AHN WHERE
HIGHER CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS
IN A LITTLE LONGER AND SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  59  86  66 /  10   0   5  10
ATLANTA         80  64  85  66 /  10   5   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  56 /   5   5  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   5   5   5  30
COLUMBUS        81  64  88  68 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5   5  20
MACON           81  60  86  64 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            84  60  85  61 /   5   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  80  58  86  64 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         81  65  88  67 /  40  20   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200712
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CHANGE WITH ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND DECREASING IN CIG HEIGHTS. WILL KEEP MVFR
ADVERTISED AT ALL ATL SITES WITH IFR LIKELY AT AHN AND MCN.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS IN A LITTLE LONER AND
SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  59  86  66 /  10   0   5  10
ATLANTA         80  64  85  66 /  10   5   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  56 /   5   5  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   5   5   5  30
COLUMBUS        81  64  88  68 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5   5  20
MACON           81  60  86  64 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            84  60  85  61 /   5   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  80  58  86  64 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         81  65  88  67 /  40  20   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200712
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...ALSO MONITORING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHICH THUS
FAR REMAINS A WEAK FEATURE BUT COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
THE LOCAL SENSIBLE WX THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SOME
INFLUENCE...MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SHOULD BE A CLOUDY START FOR MOST AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NE GEORGIA
FILL IN AS WELL AS ADVECT WEST. FEEL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WITH US
FOR LONGER THAN MODELS PROJECT WITHIN DEVELOPING WEDGE BUT SHOULD
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS. AS CLOUDS ERODE
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE MODESTLY WITH
LOCAL WRF INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 J/KG AND 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MCN TO CSG LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 AND CONVERGENCE CREATED BY WEDGE/LOW
COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AS LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE TUGGED IN ON
THE BACKSIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW ONE INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND RESULTING IN LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LATE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED BUT ACTUALLY HAVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG TO
2000 J/KG) ALONG WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PRODUCE LOW
END POPS BY 00Z. SHOULD MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED.
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHEN. WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. FOR NOW SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL INTO FRIDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CHANGE WITH ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND DECREASING IN CIG HEIGHTS. WILL KEEP MVFR
ADVERTISED AT ALL ATL SITES WITH IFR LIKELY AT AHN AND MCN.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS IN A LITTLE LONER AND
SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  59  86  66 /  10   0   5  10
ATLANTA         80  64  85  66 /  10   5   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  55  80  56 /   5   5  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    81  59  85  61 /   5   5   5  30
COLUMBUS        81  64  88  68 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     78  62  82  65 /   5   5   5  20
MACON           81  60  86  64 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            84  60  85  61 /   5   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  80  58  86  64 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         81  65  88  67 /  40  20   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200607
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CHANGE WITH ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND DECREASING IN CIG HEIGHTS. WILL KEEP MVFR
ADVERTISED AT ALL ATL SITES WITH IFR LIKELY AT AHN AND MCN.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS IN A LITTLE LONER AND
SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  61  87  65 /   5   0  10  10
ATLANTA         81  64  85  65 /   5   0  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  80  59 /   5   0  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    82  61  85  62 /   0   0  20  30
COLUMBUS        82  65  88  66 /  10   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     78  63  83  64 /   5   0  10  20
MACON           82  61  87  63 /  10   5  10   5
ROME            84  61  86  61 /   5   0  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  81  60  86  62 /  10   0  10  10
VIDALIA         83  65  88  67 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200607
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN LOW CLOUD SHIELD HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO FAR NE GEORGIA
WITH JUST SPOTTY FORMATION FURTHER WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT THIS SHOULD CHANGE WITH ADVANCING LOW CLOUDS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND DECREASING IN CIG HEIGHTS. WILL KEEP MVFR
ADVERTISED AT ALL ATL SITES WITH IFR LIKELY AT AHN AND MCN.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF KEEPING CIGS IN A LITTLE LONER AND
SCATTERING OUT TO A VFR DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CIG TIMING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  61  87  65 /   5   0  10  10
ATLANTA         81  64  85  65 /   5   0  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     78  56  80  59 /   5   0  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    82  61  85  62 /   0   0  20  30
COLUMBUS        82  65  88  66 /  10   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     78  63  83  64 /   5   0  10  20
MACON           82  61  87  63 /  10   5  10   5
ROME            84  61  86  61 /   5   0  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  81  60  86  62 /  10   0  10  10
VIDALIA         83  65  88  67 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED BY 09Z...WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS. WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BE MORE SCT-BKN THAN THE SCT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. EAST WINDS
4-8KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY BY
MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS 09-19Z. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  20   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED BY 09Z...WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS. WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BE MORE SCT-BKN THAN THE SCT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. EAST WINDS
4-8KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY BY
MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS 09-19Z. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  20   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED BY 09Z...WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS. WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BE MORE SCT-BKN THAN THE SCT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. EAST WINDS
4-8KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY BY
MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS 09-19Z. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  20   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1136 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH GLOOMY MORNING CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED BY 09Z...WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS. WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BE MORE SCT-BKN THAN THE SCT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. EAST WINDS
4-8KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY BY
MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS 09-19Z. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  20   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 200007
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
DEGRADING CIGS EXPECTED BY 09Z...WITH IFR-MVFR CIGS. WEDGE IN
PLACE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND MAY
BE MORE SCT-BKN THAN THE SCT CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. EAST WINDS
4-8KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH LOW END GUSTS BY BY
MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS 09-19Z. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  20   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  20   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191859
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR AT ATL AND EVEN SOME HINT AT IFR.
NOT GOING TO BITE ON THE IFR CONDITIONS QUITE YET. SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDER TODAY AT ATL AS WEDGE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.
EAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW AS WEDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
TOMORROW AS THE DAY WANES ON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON THUNDER TODAY...HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS..

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  10   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  30  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  10   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG





000
FXUS62 KFFC 191859
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
259 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR A PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WAS LEADING TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEDGE
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WEDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND LEAD
TO A RATHER NICE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS JUST SHY OF 20 KTS. CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW...BUT
WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST HAD TO ADD LOW END POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR NORTH GEORGIA. AS FAR AS
A TEMPERATURES GO...WENT WITH BCCONSALL AND A BLEND OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS.

ARG

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED WITH
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NHC NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER
GEORGIA...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN WITH THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS JUST A TAD AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THE STATE BUT ONCE IT PUSHES IN...MOISTURE DRIES UP AND
THUS SO DO POPS. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT STARTING MONDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.

SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MERGE WITH A CANADIAN HIGH...WORKING TOGETHER
TO FORM AN AREA OF DAMMING DOWN THE EAST COAST. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE DRY ONSET CLASSICAL CAD WHICH WOULD JUST CONTINUE THE BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT RESULT. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY BUMPED UP POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY KEEPING THEM
SLIGHT CHANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR WITH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR AT ATL AND EVEN SOME HINT AT IFR.
NOT GOING TO BITE ON THE IFR CONDITIONS QUITE YET. SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDER TODAY AT ATL AS WEDGE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.
EAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW AS WEDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
TOMORROW AS THE DAY WANES ON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON THUNDER TODAY...HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS..

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  81  61  87 /  20   5   0  10
ATLANTA         66  81  64  85 /  20   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     60  78  56  80 /  20   5   0  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  82  61  85 /  10   0   0  20
COLUMBUS        68  82  65  88 /  20  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  83 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           65  82  61  87 /  30  10   5  10
ROME            64  84  61  86 /  10   5   0  20
PEACHTREE CITY  63  81  60  86 /  20  10   0  10
VIDALIA         68  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...ARG






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191722 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST ON EASTERLY WINDS. HAD TO UPDATE THE
GRIDS TO INCLUDE THIS CHANCE OF POPS AND THUNDER. LATEST TREND
SHOWS A DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS. MAY SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EAST ZONES LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF AN
OFB CAN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE THERE. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE HAD TO CHANGE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE ANY
TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS IN THIS UPDATE.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AS
MODELS AGREE ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT CARVING OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER SE GA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE... A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE NE STATES
TODAY BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND ESTABLISHES A CAD WEDGE THAT SPREADS A
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS INTO AT LEAST NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE BEING REINFORCED ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE GA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT SERVES TO STRENGTHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

ALL THIS MAKES TEMP AND POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY... AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ADD TO UNCERTAINTY ON
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
THINKING THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL WARRANT STARTING
OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING... THEN SPREADING THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA... AND A CHANCE POP ACROSS CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION THUNDER ALL ZONES TODAY... EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WEDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THE GREATER
CHANCE TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GA TODAY WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOLED. AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SE GA
TONIGHT... EXPECT A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD AMPLE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW... WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT... BUT MONITOR
CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER
INLAND. MAY START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY... BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OFF THE GA/SC COASTS... EXPECT THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW TO HELP SPREAD SOME DRIER AIR IN OVER AT LEAST NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL GA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES ON SATURDAY WHERE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE GREATER
INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY... WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR AT ATL AND EVEN SOME HINT AT IFR.
NOT GOING TO BITE ON THE IFR CONDITIONS QUITE YET. SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDER TODAY AT ATL AS WEDGE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.
EAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW AS WEDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
TOMORROW AS THE DAY WANES ON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON THUNDER TODAY...HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS..

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  62  82  62 /  50  20   5   0
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  20  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     77  59  79  57 /  30  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    84  63  84  61 /  20  10   0   5
COLUMBUS        87  66  85  65 /  30  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     81  63  81  64 /  30  20   5   5
MACON           85  65  84  62 /  30  20  10   5
ROME            86  62  85  61 /  20  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  60 /  30  20  10   5
VIDALIA         85  67  84  66 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ARG







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191722 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST ON EASTERLY WINDS. HAD TO UPDATE THE
GRIDS TO INCLUDE THIS CHANCE OF POPS AND THUNDER. LATEST TREND
SHOWS A DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS. MAY SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EAST ZONES LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF AN
OFB CAN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE THERE. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE HAD TO CHANGE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE ANY
TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS IN THIS UPDATE.

ARG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AS
MODELS AGREE ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT CARVING OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER SE GA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE... A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE NE STATES
TODAY BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND ESTABLISHES A CAD WEDGE THAT SPREADS A
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS INTO AT LEAST NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE BEING REINFORCED ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE GA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT SERVES TO STRENGTHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

ALL THIS MAKES TEMP AND POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY... AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ADD TO UNCERTAINTY ON
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
THINKING THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL WARRANT STARTING
OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING... THEN SPREADING THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA... AND A CHANCE POP ACROSS CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION THUNDER ALL ZONES TODAY... EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WEDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THE GREATER
CHANCE TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GA TODAY WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOLED. AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SE GA
TONIGHT... EXPECT A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD AMPLE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW... WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT... BUT MONITOR
CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER
INLAND. MAY START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY... BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OFF THE GA/SC COASTS... EXPECT THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW TO HELP SPREAD SOME DRIER AIR IN OVER AT LEAST NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL GA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES ON SATURDAY WHERE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE GREATER
INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY... WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR AT ATL AND EVEN SOME HINT AT IFR.
NOT GOING TO BITE ON THE IFR CONDITIONS QUITE YET. SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDER TODAY AT ATL AS WEDGE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.
EAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TOMORROW AS WEDGE AND DEVELOPING LOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP
TOMORROW AS THE DAY WANES ON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW ON THUNDER TODAY...HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS..

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  62  82  62 /  50  20   5   0
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  20  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     77  59  79  57 /  30  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    84  63  84  61 /  20  10   0   5
COLUMBUS        87  66  85  65 /  30  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     81  63  81  64 /  30  20   5   5
MACON           85  65  84  62 /  30  20  10   5
ROME            86  62  85  61 /  20  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  60 /  30  20  10   5
VIDALIA         85  67  84  66 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ARG






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