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000
FXUS62 KFFC 280541 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1241 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COOLING
TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. STILL
ANTICIPATE THIS CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

31


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST. 3-4KFT CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THINK THESE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. WINDS IN THE 13-17Z TIME FRAME AT ATL WILL BE AROUND
360 AND COULD SEE A COUPLE NNE OBSERVATIONS BUT FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT WINDS ON THE NW SIDE AND BY THE MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO W AND THEN SW BY TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE
TO POTENTIAL OF A FEW NNE OBS MID MORNING.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  30  57  41 /   0   0   5   0
ATLANTA         48  34  58  45 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     47  29  55  40 /   0   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  29  58  42 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        52  33  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  32  56  42 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           52  29  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  28  59  43 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  49  29  59  38 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         52  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280541 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1241 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COOLING
TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. STILL
ANTICIPATE THIS CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

31


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST. 3-4KFT CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...BUT THINK THESE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. WINDS IN THE 13-17Z TIME FRAME AT ATL WILL BE AROUND
360 AND COULD SEE A COUPLE NNE OBSERVATIONS BUT FOR THE MOST PART
EXPECT WINDS ON THE NW SIDE AND BY THE MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
TRANSITIONING TO W AND THEN SW BY TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DUE
TO POTENTIAL OF A FEW NNE OBS MID MORNING.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  30  57  41 /   0   0   5   0
ATLANTA         48  34  58  45 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     47  29  55  40 /   0   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  29  58  42 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        52  33  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  32  56  42 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           52  29  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  28  59  43 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  49  29  59  38 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         52  34  61  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280253
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COOLING
TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. STILL
ANTICIPATE THIS CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FROM 8-10KT
THIS EVENING TO 5KT OR LESS BY 12Z. NW WINDS WILL SLIDE TO THE W
AND THEN SW BY FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          27  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         28  48  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    26  48  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        29  52  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  47  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           28  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  25  49  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         33  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280253
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST COOLING
TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. STILL
ANTICIPATE THIS CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FROM 8-10KT
THIS EVENING TO 5KT OR LESS BY 12Z. NW WINDS WILL SLIDE TO THE W
AND THEN SW BY FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          27  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         28  48  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    26  48  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        29  52  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  47  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           28  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  25  49  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         33  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 272352
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
652 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FROM 8-10KT
THIS EVENING TO 5KT OR LESS BY 12Z. NW WINDS WILL SLIDE TO THE W
AND THEN SW BY FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          27  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         28  48  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    26  48  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        29  52  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  47  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           28  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  25  49  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         33  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 272352
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
652 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FROM 8-10KT
THIS EVENING TO 5KT OR LESS BY 12Z. NW WINDS WILL SLIDE TO THE W
AND THEN SW BY FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          27  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         28  48  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    26  48  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        29  52  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  47  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           28  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  25  49  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         33  52  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE ATL ARE TERMINALS AND NOW AFFECTING
MCN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AHN. HAVE EXTENDED CIGS IN LATEST TAF
SET TO 00Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE AT 00Z BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY SUBSIDE
UNTIL CLOSER TO 04Z. NO OTHER ISSUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          26  49  32  59 /   0   0   5   0
ATLANTA         27  48  36  59 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     24  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    25  49  30  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        29  54  35  63 /   0   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     28  48  35  57 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           27  55  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            25  50  29  60 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  25  50  28  59 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         33  54  35  62 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BUT THIS HAS FAILED TO ERADICATE THE TO LOW TO MID CLOUDS THAT
ENGULF MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA. THIS CONTINUES TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. HAVE HAD ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...BUT LOSING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR NIL POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TAP FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY
BUT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUITE BENIGN WITH NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND A SUBTLE MODERATING TREND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE ON DRAPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND BRINGING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN IT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF TREND WILL BE TO BACK DOWN FROM
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE ATL ARE TERMINALS AND NOW AFFECTING
MCN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AHN. HAVE EXTENDED CIGS IN LATEST TAF
SET TO 00Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE AT 00Z BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY SUBSIDE
UNTIL CLOSER TO 04Z. NO OTHER ISSUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          26  49  32  59 /   0   0   5   0
ATLANTA         27  48  36  59 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     24  47  30  57 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    25  49  30  59 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        29  54  35  63 /   0   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     28  48  35  57 /   0   0   5   0
MACON           27  55  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            25  50  29  60 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  25  50  28  59 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         33  54  35  62 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...

FORECAST GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO DIURNAL TEMP CURVE IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON LOCAL RADAR...ALTHOUGH LESS IN THE LAST HOUR
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SOME REPORTS COMING IN OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST ALL SITES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WITH NO TRAVEL ISSUES OF NOTE. SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS TRIGGERED THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE ATL ARE TERMINALS AND NOW AFFECTING
MCN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AHN. HAVE EXTENDED CIGS IN LATEST TAF
SET TO 00Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE AT 00Z BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY SUBSIDE
UNTIL CLOSER TO 04Z. NO OTHER ISSUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...

FORECAST GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO DIURNAL TEMP CURVE IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON LOCAL RADAR...ALTHOUGH LESS IN THE LAST HOUR
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SOME REPORTS COMING IN OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST ALL SITES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WITH NO TRAVEL ISSUES OF NOTE. SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS TRIGGERED THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE ATL ARE TERMINALS AND NOW AFFECTING
MCN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AHN. HAVE EXTENDED CIGS IN LATEST TAF
SET TO 00Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE AT 00Z BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY SUBSIDE
UNTIL CLOSER TO 04Z. NO OTHER ISSUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
SET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271459
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
959 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO DIURNAL TEMP CURVE IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON LOCAL RADAR...ALTHOUGH LESS IN THE LAST HOUR
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SOME REPORTS COMING IN OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST ALL SITES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WITH NO TRAVEL ISSUES OF NOTE. SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS TRIGGERED THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

AVIATION...

12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 3-6KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18/20Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
METRO ATLANTA TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
18Z ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z. WEST WINDS 8-12KT...BECOMING MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT BY 14Z...
DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271459
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
959 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH JUST A MINOR
UPDATE TO DIURNAL TEMP CURVE IN ORDER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE TO SEE
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON LOCAL RADAR...ALTHOUGH LESS IN THE LAST HOUR
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SOME REPORTS COMING IN OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BUT MOST ALL SITES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WITH NO TRAVEL ISSUES OF NOTE. SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS TRIGGERED THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TODAY WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE
FRONT. THEN AS WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT
OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO
WITH LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17

AVIATION...

12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 3-6KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18/20Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
METRO ATLANTA TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
18Z ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z. WEST WINDS 8-12KT...BECOMING MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT BY 14Z...
DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271132 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT. THEN AS
WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH
EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO WITH LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 3-6KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18/20Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
METRO ATLANTA TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
18Z ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z. WEST WINDS 8-12KT...BECOMING MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT BY 14Z...
DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271132 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT. THEN AS
WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH
EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO WITH LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 3-6KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18/20Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
METRO ATLANTA TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER
18Z ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 00Z. WEST WINDS 8-12KT...BECOMING MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT BY 14Z...
DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270800
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT. THEN AS
WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH
EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO WITH LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 5-12KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 12-16Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 14Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY 00Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT
THROUGH 22Z...DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270800
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WHERE SO FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE
HOWEVER ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWEEPS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER GEORGIA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE. DRY AND COOL WEATHER SETTLES
IN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
DIFFERENCES BEGIN. BOTH MODELS SHOW RISING H5 HEIGHTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST BRINGING US A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...IE WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING THIS FRONT INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE. WILL KEEP POPS
CONFINED TO NORTH GA AS BOTH MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE FRONT. THEN AS
WE PUSH INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BOTH MODELS ARE OUT OF SYNC WITH
EACH OTHER WITH POSITIONS OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE. UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WILL GO WITH LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

17


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 5-12KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 12-16Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 14Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY 00Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT
THROUGH 22Z...DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  26  49  32 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         47  27  48  36 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  24  47  30 /  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  49  30 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        53  29  54  35 /   5   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  28  48  35 /  10   0   0   5
MACON           55  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  25  50  29 /  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  49  25  50  28 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         57  33  54  35 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270604 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014


.UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS 5-12KFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 12-16Z...INCLUDING ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 14Z ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SKIES BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER 18Z ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
CLOUDS BY 00Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH 12Z...BECOMING
MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 19-25KT
THROUGH 22Z...DIMINISHING TO 6-10KT AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH 18Z...HIGH OTHERWISE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  30  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  30  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  30  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270223
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
CIGS ARE STILL VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BY 10-12Z. STILL NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH 12KT
GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH THE DAY THU. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SW
TO NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  30  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  30  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  30  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270223
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
CIGS ARE STILL VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BY 10-12Z. STILL NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH 12KT
GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH THE DAY THU. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SW
TO NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  30  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  30  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  30  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270013
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
CIGS ARE STILL VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BY 10-12Z. STILL NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH 12KT
GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH THE DAY THU. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SW
TO NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  30  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  30  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  30  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270013
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
CIGS ARE STILL VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
BY 10-12Z. STILL NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS EVENING
BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP AROUND DAYBREAK WITH 12KT
GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH THE DAY THU. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SW
TO NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  30  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  30  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  30  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 261918
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE
DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER
TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE
WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN
ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS
WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS
HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT
PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM
WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE
ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO
ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT
THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT
LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME
RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY VFR BUT
CROSS SECTIONS OF LOCAL TAF SITES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE
THIS EVENING. HAVE TAKEN CIGS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF A
SPRINKLE OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
AT ATL WITH GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  50 /  10   5   5   0
ATLANTA         37  49  29  49 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  43  25  49 /  50  30  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    33  48  26  49 /  20  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        38  54  30  54 /   5   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     36  48  29  49 /  40  20   5   0
MACON           35  57  29  54 /   0   5   5   0
ROME            33  49  25  50 /  40  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  32  51  26  50 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         41  55  34  53 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 261807
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
107 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...POPS HAVE CLEARED OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A WELL
DEFINED CLEARING LINE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS ABLE TO
DROP ALL THE POPS WE HAD LEADING UP TO 18Z AND WAS THE MAIN UPDATE
FOR THE TODAY CYCLE. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS MODELS TRENDING WETTER WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS.
WILL ADDRESS HOW THIS AFFECTS WINTER WX CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON
UPDATE AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPING RAPIDLY ACROSS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH BY MID/LATE EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE IT BECOME ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR A WHILE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THAT AREA SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IS KAHN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AFTER
00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY 16-18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY VFR BUT
CROSS SECTIONS OF LOCAL TAF SITES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE
THIS EVENING. HAVE TAKEN CIGS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF A
SPRINKLE OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
AT ATL WITH GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  35  51  30 /  70  10   5   5
ATLANTA         53  35  48  31 /  40  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  32  44  25 /  60  50  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    53  34  48  28 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        58  37  54  32 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     51  35  48  30 /  60  40  20   5
MACON           59  36  55  31 /  60   0   5   5
ROME            53  34  49  28 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  35  50  29 /  30  20  10   5
VIDALIA         58  40  58  34 /  70   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 261807
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
107 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...POPS HAVE CLEARED OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A WELL
DEFINED CLEARING LINE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS ABLE TO
DROP ALL THE POPS WE HAD LEADING UP TO 18Z AND WAS THE MAIN UPDATE
FOR THE TODAY CYCLE. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS MODELS TRENDING WETTER WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS.
WILL ADDRESS HOW THIS AFFECTS WINTER WX CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON
UPDATE AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPING RAPIDLY ACROSS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH BY MID/LATE EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE IT BECOME ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR A WHILE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THAT AREA SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IS KAHN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AFTER
00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY 16-18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY VFR BUT
CROSS SECTIONS OF LOCAL TAF SITES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE
THIS EVENING. HAVE TAKEN CIGS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF A
SPRINKLE OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
AT ATL WITH GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  35  51  30 /  70  10   5   5
ATLANTA         53  35  48  31 /  40  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  32  44  25 /  60  50  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    53  34  48  28 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        58  37  54  32 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     51  35  48  30 /  60  40  20   5
MACON           59  36  55  31 /  60   0   5   5
ROME            53  34  49  28 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  35  50  29 /  30  20  10   5
VIDALIA         58  40  58  34 /  70   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 261537
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE CLEARED OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A WELL
DEFINED CLEARING LINE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS ABLE TO
DROP ALL THE POPS WE HAD LEADING UP TO 18Z AND WAS THE MAIN UPDATE
FOR THE TODAY CYCLE. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS MODELS TRENDING WETTER WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS.
WILL ADDRESS HOW THIS AFFECTS WINTER WX CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON
UPDATE AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPING RAPIDLY ACROSS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH BY MID/LATE EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE IT BECOME ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR A WHILE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THAT AREA SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IS KAHN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AFTER
00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY 16-18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  35  51  30 /  70  10   5   5
ATLANTA         53  35  48  31 /  40  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  32  44  25 /  60  50  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    53  34  48  28 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        58  37  54  32 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     51  35  48  30 /  60  40  20   5
MACON           59  36  55  31 /  60   0   5   5
ROME            53  34  49  28 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  35  50  29 /  30  20  10   5
VIDALIA         58  40  58  34 /  70   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 261537
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE CLEARED OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A WELL
DEFINED CLEARING LINE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAS ABLE TO
DROP ALL THE POPS WE HAD LEADING UP TO 18Z AND WAS THE MAIN UPDATE
FOR THE TODAY CYCLE. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE POPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING AS MODELS TRENDING WETTER WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM REFLECTIVITY MODELS.
WILL ADDRESS HOW THIS AFFECTS WINTER WX CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON
UPDATE AS NEW MODEL DATA COMES IN.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPING RAPIDLY ACROSS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH BY MID/LATE EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE IT BECOME ALL SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR A WHILE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IN THAT AREA SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IS KAHN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AFTER
00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY 16-18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  35  51  30 /  70  10   5   5
ATLANTA         53  35  48  31 /  40  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     50  32  44  25 /  60  50  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    53  34  48  28 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        58  37  54  32 /  20   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     51  35  48  30 /  60  40  20   5
MACON           59  36  55  31 /  60   0   5   5
ROME            53  34  49  28 /  30  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  54  35  50  29 /  30  20  10   5
VIDALIA         58  40  58  34 /  70   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 261133 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPING RAPIDLY ACROSS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE SO
IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY MID/LATE
EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE IT BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A WHILE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THAT AREA SO
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD.


20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41


&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IS KAHN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES...AFTER
00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY 16-18Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  35  51  30 /  70   5   5   0
ATLANTA         53  35  48  31 /  40   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     50  32  44  25 /  60  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    53  34  48  28 /  30  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        58  37  54  32 /  20   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     51  35  48  30 /  60  10   5   0
MACON           59  36  55  31 /  60   5   5   0
ROME            53  34  49  28 /  20  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  54  35  50  29 /  30   5   5   0
VIDALIA         58  40  58  34 /  70   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 260829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE SWEEPING RAPIDLY ACROSS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THIS MORNING TAKING PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE SO
IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH BY MID/LATE
EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. COULD SEE IT BECOME ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A WHILE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THAT AREA SO
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY MILD.


20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE
ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY
TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO
NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH
THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON
THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITES WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ARE THE KMCN AND KAHN SITES. ALL AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE
TAF SITES...AFTER 00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH 12Z AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  35  51  30 /  70   5   5   0
ATLANTA         53  35  48  31 /  40   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     50  32  44  25 /  60  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    53  34  48  28 /  30  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        58  37  54  32 /  20   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     51  35  48  30 /  60  10   5   0
MACON           59  36  55  31 /  60   5   5   0
ROME            53  34  49  28 /  20  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  54  35  50  29 /  30   5   5   0
VIDALIA         58  40  58  34 /  70   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 260607 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITES WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ARE THE KMCN AND KAHN SITES. ALL AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE
TAF SITES...AFTER 00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH 12Z AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 260607 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH 14Z...BUT THE ONLY TAF SITES WHERE ANY THREAT OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ARE THE KMCN AND KAHN SITES. ALL AREAS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR AFTER 18Z...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA...NORTH OF ALL OF THE
TAF SITES...AFTER 00Z. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH 12Z AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 4-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 260024
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH
-RA MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN
00-04Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH
CIGS LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF WITH RAIN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
CURRENTLY CEILINGS ARE BKN100 AND ABOVE IN THE ATL AREA BUT THEY
WILL FALL TO OVC020 BY 06-08Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. SHOULD SEE PRECIP MAINLY OVER NIGHT ENDING BY 11-13Z.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15-16Z.
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE NW OVERNIGHT THEN SWITCH TO THE
SW BY 20Z WED. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR LESS. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN AND
AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 260024
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH
-RA MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN
00-04Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH
CIGS LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF WITH RAIN MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
CURRENTLY CEILINGS ARE BKN100 AND ABOVE IN THE ATL AREA BUT THEY
WILL FALL TO OVC020 BY 06-08Z AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. SHOULD SEE PRECIP MAINLY OVER NIGHT ENDING BY 11-13Z.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT WEDNESDAY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15-16Z.
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE NW OVERNIGHT THEN SWITCH TO THE
SW BY 20Z WED. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY 10KT OR LESS. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN AND
AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 251935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH
-RA MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN
00-04Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH
CIGS LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 251935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT AFD
TIME. DEEP TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP OUT OF THE STATE WITH IT. AS THE
COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE ROTATING OUT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE ANOTHER
0.5-0.75 INCH OF QPF...WITH METRO ATLANTA LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
EXPECT THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE MOVED OUT
OF THE METRO AREA AS WEDNESDAY TRAVELERS START HITTING THE ROAD
/NOT THE CASE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST/. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE
FAST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...
MAYBE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH LOWS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEEMS A PRETTY SURE BET THAT THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOISTURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR BRASSTOWN SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DENDRITES TO
FORM WITH A VERY DRY PROFILE ABOVE THE -10C LINE. QPF TOTALS WITH
THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCH IN GENERAL...SO ANY
ACCUMULATION THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR WILL BE VERY VERY LIGHT AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND A DUSTING AT BEST FOR THAT. THE CLIPPER AND
PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED.

TDP

TDP


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE
STATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY WITH FAIR SKIES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

41/16

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH
-RA MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN
00-04Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH
CIGS LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  53  35  52 / 100  60   0   0
ATLANTA         41  52  36  50 /  70  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  48  33  46 /  80  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    38  51  34  50 /  60  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  57  38  54 /  80  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     40  51  35  49 /  90  50   5   5
MACON           41  57  36  56 / 100  40   0   0
ROME            37  52  33  50 /  40  20   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  37  53  33  51 /  80  30   0   0
VIDALIA         46  57  38  57 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 251740 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY TO UPDATE POPS AND WX GRIDS.
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST BUT REMOVED THUNDER WORDING AS THERE IS
NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST NOT WORTH KEEPING IT IN
THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPERATURES UP THERE IN CASE THEY START CREEPING UP ABOVE
FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ON THE WAY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH -RA
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN 00-04Z.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH CIGS
LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40 100  60   0
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  30  70  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  60  20   5
COLUMBUS        59  40  56  38 /  50  80  20   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  90  50   5
MACON           60  41  56  36 /  80  90  40   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  10  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  30   0
VIDALIA         63  45  55  39 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 251740 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY TO UPDATE POPS AND WX GRIDS.
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST BUT REMOVED THUNDER WORDING AS THERE IS
NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST NOT WORTH KEEPING IT IN
THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPERATURES UP THERE IN CASE THEY START CREEPING UP ABOVE
FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ON THE WAY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING MVFR EVERYWHERE WITH -RA
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY STARTING SOMETIME BETWEEN 00-04Z.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH CIGS
LIFTING AGAIN TO VFR AND SCATTERING OUT...WITH A MORE RAPID
LIFTING TREND BETWEEN 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS NNW TO NW THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT...A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT...BACKING
MORE W TO WSW BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM HIGH ON TIMING AND CIG HEIGHTS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40 100  60   0
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  30  70  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  60  20   5
COLUMBUS        59  40  56  38 /  50  80  20   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  90  50   5
MACON           60  41  56  36 /  80  90  40   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  10  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  30   0
VIDALIA         63  45  55  39 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 251630 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY TO UPDATE POPS AND WX GRIDS.
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST BUT REMOVED THUNDER WORDING AS THERE IS
NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST NOT WORTH KEEPING IT IN
THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPERATURES UP THERE IN CASE THEY START CREEPING UP ABOVE
FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ON THE WAY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

41

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING BACK NORTH BY 18Z...SPREADING INTO THE KCSG AND KMCN AREAS
BY 18Z AND INTO THE KAHN AND ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 02-06Z.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD NORTH LATER TODAY REACHING
KMCN/KCSG BY 00-02Z AND THE KAHN/ATLANTA AREAS BY 04-07Z. LOCAL IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH 6-10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  50  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  30  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  30  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        59  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  40  80  50   5
MACON           60  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  50  80  40   0
VIDALIA         63  45  55  39 / 100  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 251630 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY TO UPDATE POPS AND WX GRIDS.
INCREASED POPS SOUTHEAST BUT REMOVED THUNDER WORDING AS THERE IS
NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST NOT WORTH KEEPING IT IN
THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPERATURES UP THERE IN CASE THEY START CREEPING UP ABOVE
FORECAST. UPDATED PRODUCTS ON THE WAY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

41

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING BACK NORTH BY 18Z...SPREADING INTO THE KCSG AND KMCN AREAS
BY 18Z AND INTO THE KAHN AND ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 02-06Z.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD NORTH LATER TODAY REACHING
KMCN/KCSG BY 00-02Z AND THE KAHN/ATLANTA AREAS BY 04-07Z. LOCAL IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH 6-10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  50  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  30  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  30  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        59  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  40  80  50   5
MACON           60  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  50  80  40   0
VIDALIA         63  45  55  39 / 100  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 251127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.


20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING BACK NORTH BY 18Z...SPREADING INTO THE KCSG AND KMCN AREAS
BY 18Z AND INTO THE KAHN AND ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 02-06Z.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD NORTH LATER TODAY REACHING
KMCN/KCSG BY 00-02Z AND THE KAHN/ATLANTA AREAS BY 04-07Z. LOCAL IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH 6-10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        58  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  80  50   5
MACON           58  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  40   0
VIDALIA         61  45  55  39 /  80  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 251127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.


20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING BACK NORTH BY 18Z...SPREADING INTO THE KCSG AND KMCN AREAS
BY 18Z AND INTO THE KAHN AND ATLANTA METRO AREA BY 02-06Z.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD NORTH LATER TODAY REACHING
KMCN/KCSG BY 00-02Z AND THE KAHN/ATLANTA AREAS BY 04-07Z. LOCAL IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH 6-10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        58  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  80  50   5
MACON           58  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  40   0
VIDALIA         61  45  55  39 /  80  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 250837
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.


20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.


41


&&


AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NW GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE STATE
AND WILL SEE RAIN MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.FOR NOW WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN TAF SITES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TUES. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER 00S TUES AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        58  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  80  50   5
MACON           58  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  40   0
VIDALIA         61  45  55  39 /  80  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 250837
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY STARTING TO KICK EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE BOTTOMS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...RAPIDLY MOVING OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY MARGINAL
TODAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT WITH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS SHIFTING EAST...THERE MAY SOME LIMITED CHANCE
OF A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH WARM AND WET GROUND
CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION IS
MINIMAL.


20


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOME
FORM FOR PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE INTO GA. LOOKS LIKE ONLY
THE EXTREME NORTH SHOULD BE AFFECTED. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE FAR NORTH
AND NO ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE TN/KY AREA ON MONDAY BUT
MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.


41


&&


AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO NW GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE STATE
AND WILL SEE RAIN MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.FOR NOW WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN TAF SITES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT MOVING
INTO THE ATL AREA TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TUES. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER 00S TUES AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBSY WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  40  52  35 /  40  90  60   5
ATLANTA         58  39  53  37 /  40  70  40   5
BLAIRSVILLE     57  35  50  32 /  20  80  50  20
CARTERSVILLE    57  37  52  34 /  20  70  30   5
COLUMBUS        58  40  56  38 /  60  80  30   0
GAINESVILLE     58  39  52  36 /  30  80  50   5
MACON           58  41  56  36 /  80  90  50   0
ROME            57  36  52  34 /  20  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  37  54  34 /  40  80  40   0
VIDALIA         61  45  55  39 /  80  90  60   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




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