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000
FXUS62 KFFC 012339 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AFTER 06Z...BUT CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z. OTHERWISE A
MIXTURE OF MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
LOCAL IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE..MAINLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 4-10KT.
EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 012339 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AFTER 06Z...BUT CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z. OTHERWISE A
MIXTURE OF MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z.
LOCAL IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE..MAINLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 4-10KT.
EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 011754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING IN AHEAD OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPO
GROUP THIS EVENING ACCOUNTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS REMAIN FROM
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 011754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING IN AHEAD OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPO
GROUP THIS EVENING ACCOUNTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS REMAIN FROM
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING IN AHEAD OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPO
GROUP THIS EVENING ACCOUNTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS REMAIN FROM
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 011357
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 011357
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011357
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011357
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 011138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 011138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010839
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN OR AROUND
CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010839
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN OR AROUND
CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010725
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS. MAINLY
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SKY AND POPS. MOST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
POPPING AT RANDOM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BECOME MINIMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE PAST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN OR AROUND
CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  70  50
ATLANTA         86  70  85  73 /  50  50  70  50
BLAIRSVILLE     79  63  79  65 /  60  60  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  84  70 /  60  60  80  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  90  74 /  40  30  60  30
GAINESVILLE     85  69  84  71 /  60  60  70  60
MACON           91  71  92  73 /  30  30  60  30
ROME            86  69  85  70 /  60  60  80  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  72 /  40  50  70  50
VIDALIA         91  73  92  75 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010725
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS. MAINLY
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SKY AND POPS. MOST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
POPPING AT RANDOM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BECOME MINIMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE PAST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN OR AROUND
CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  70  50
ATLANTA         86  70  85  73 /  50  50  70  50
BLAIRSVILLE     79  63  79  65 /  60  60  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  84  70 /  60  60  80  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  90  74 /  40  30  60  30
GAINESVILLE     85  69  84  71 /  60  60  70  60
MACON           91  71  92  73 /  30  30  60  30
ROME            86  69  85  70 /  60  60  80  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  72 /  40  50  70  50
VIDALIA         91  73  92  75 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010725
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS. MAINLY
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SKY AND POPS. MOST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
POPPING AT RANDOM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BECOME MINIMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE PAST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN OR AROUND
CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  70  50
ATLANTA         86  70  85  73 /  50  50  70  50
BLAIRSVILLE     79  63  79  65 /  60  60  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  84  70 /  60  60  80  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  90  74 /  40  30  60  30
GAINESVILLE     85  69  84  71 /  60  60  70  60
MACON           91  71  92  73 /  30  30  60  30
ROME            86  69  85  70 /  60  60  80  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  72 /  40  50  70  50
VIDALIA         91  73  92  75 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010725
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS. MAINLY
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SKY AND POPS. MOST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
POPPING AT RANDOM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BECOME MINIMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE PAST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN OR AROUND
CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  70  50
ATLANTA         86  70  85  73 /  50  50  70  50
BLAIRSVILLE     79  63  79  65 /  60  60  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  84  70 /  60  60  80  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  90  74 /  40  30  60  30
GAINESVILLE     85  69  84  71 /  60  60  70  60
MACON           91  71  92  73 /  30  30  60  30
ROME            86  69  85  70 /  60  60  80  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  72 /  40  50  70  50
VIDALIA         91  73  92  75 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010216
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS. MAINLY
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SKY AND POPS. MOST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
POPPING AT RANDOM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BECOME MINIMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE PAST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR
OR LOWER CEILINGS IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 16Z
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY 3-8KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  70  88 /  40  50  50  70
ATLANTA         69  86  70  85 /  30  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  40  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    66  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        70  89  72  90 /  30  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  40  60  60  70
MACON           69  91  71  92 /  40  30  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  30  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010216
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1016 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

I HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS. MAINLY
HOURLY TEMPERATURES...SKY AND POPS. MOST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED
BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LITTLE THUNDER
POPPING AT RANDOM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED ENOUGH FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BECOME MINIMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE PAST 12 HOURS AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR
OR LOWER CEILINGS IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 16Z
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY 3-8KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  70  88 /  40  50  50  70
ATLANTA         69  86  70  85 /  30  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  40  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    66  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        70  89  72  90 /  30  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  40  60  60  70
MACON           69  91  71  92 /  40  30  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  30  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 302346 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR
OR LOWER CEILINGS IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 16Z
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY 3-8KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  70  88 /  30  50  50  70
ATLANTA         70  86  70  85 /  40  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  30  60  60  70
MACON           70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  50  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 302346 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR
OR LOWER CEILINGS IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 16Z
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY 3-8KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  70  88 /  30  50  50  70
ATLANTA         70  86  70  85 /  40  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  30  60  60  70
MACON           70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  50  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 302346 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z...LASTING THROUGH 14Z. MAY SEE SOME LOCAL MVFR
OR LOWER CEILINGS IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AT THIS
TIME...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AFTER 16Z
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY 3-8KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  70  88 /  30  50  50  70
ATLANTA         70  86  70  85 /  40  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  30  60  60  70
MACON           70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  50  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301945
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  70  88 /  30  50  50  70
ATLANTA         70  86  70  85 /  40  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  30  60  60  70
MACON           70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  50  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301945
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS DID IN FACT RETURN TO THE AREA WITH A VENGEANCE THANKS
TO THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. ANALYZED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERAL STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A
RESULT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS...AND MOST SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAND
TRAVERSING OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BEFORE OUR NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE.

THE AREA SHOULD GROW ACCUSTOMED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN BECAUSE IT
LOOKS TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

RW


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
OVER THE CWA BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS
HAS GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF
FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE
GFS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A
STRONG H5 HIGH OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  89  70  88 /  30  50  50  70
ATLANTA         70  86  70  85 /  40  50  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  60  60  80
CARTERSVILLE    67  86  68  84 /  30  60  60  80
COLUMBUS        71  89  72  90 /  50  40  30  60
GAINESVILLE     68  85  69  84 /  30  60  60  70
MACON           70  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  60
ROME            67  86  69  85 /  30  60  60  80
PEACHTREE CITY  68  87  70  86 /  50  40  50  70
VIDALIA         72  91  73  92 /  50  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301804
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHEAST...EAST...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 00Z
LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP IS STILL GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTING...HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE
HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH HEATING COMMENCING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO
THEY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  60  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  60  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  60  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  60  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  60  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  50  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  60  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  60  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301804
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
204 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


.UPDATE...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHEAST...EAST...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH 00Z
LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP IS STILL GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTING...HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE
HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH HEATING COMMENCING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO
THEY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  60  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  60  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  60  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  60  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  60  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  50  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  60  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  60  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HALL...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH HEATING COMMENCING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO
THEY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  60  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  60  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  60  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  60  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  60  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  50  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  60  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  60  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH HEATING COMMENCING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO
THEY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED MIDDAY TODAY WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OF ATL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR WEDS MORNING BRINGING SCT IFR TO LOW
MVFR. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE WEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  60  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  60  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  60  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  60  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  60  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  50  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  60  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  60  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301401
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1001 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH HEATING COMMENCING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO
THEY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO 19-23Z FOR TSRA WITH VRB GUSTS TO
25KT. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT IFR TO LOW MVFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  70  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  70  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  50  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  50  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  60  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  50  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  60  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  50  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  70  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301401
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1001 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IN ALABAMA HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH HEATING COMMENCING AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...SO
THEY BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO 19-23Z FOR TSRA WITH VRB GUSTS TO
25KT. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT IFR TO LOW MVFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  70  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  70  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  50  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  50  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  60  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  50  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  60  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  50  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  70  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO 19-23Z FOR TSRA WITH VRB GUSTS TO
25KT. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT IFR TO LOW MVFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  70  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  70  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  50  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  50  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  60  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  50  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  60  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  50  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  70  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO 19-23Z FOR TSRA WITH VRB GUSTS TO
25KT. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SCT IFR TO LOW MVFR
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  70  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  70  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  50  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  50  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  60  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  50  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  60  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  50  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  70  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


31


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
 06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30 FOR TSRA 18-00Z...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED
TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING AS NEEDED AS STORMS DEVELOP. SW-W WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  70  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  70  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  50  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  50  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  60  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  50  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  60  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  50  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  70  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS RETURN TO THE GEORGIA TODAY AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE OVER THE
LAST TWO DAYS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND BACK INTO NORTHERN AL AND
MS /AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY/ HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE THIS BAND OF CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE TODAY. SHORT TERM HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...ONE OF THE LOCAL WRF RUNS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE ATL
METRO AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO NORTH GEORGIA...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE ATL METRO AREA AND
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALIGNING WITH MORE OF THE LATTER
SCENARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT THE
MAIN CONCERN TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING VALUES COULD
REACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE...SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE A CONCERN IN STORMS
TODAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS AND LOW LYING/ FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LARGELY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EARLY...THEN RAMP THEM UP TO LIKELY QUICKLY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


31


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT WAVES AS THEY ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THE CWA BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON TIMING AND THIS HAS GIVEN MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION. HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND DIFFERENCES IN
THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTION OCCUR WITH THE ECMWF FLATTENING OUT THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO
KEEPS MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WHICH IS BEING MORE CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN WHILE THE ECMWF IS NO LONGER PROGGING A STRONG H5 HIGH
OVER THE CWA. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
 06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30 FOR TSRA 18-00Z...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED
TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING AS NEEDED AS STORMS DEVELOP. SW-W WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  67  89  69 /  70  30  50  50
ATLANTA         87  69  87  71 /  70  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     80  64  81  66 /  50  30  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    85  67  87  70 /  50  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  71  90  73 /  60  60  40  30
GAINESVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  50  30  60  60
MACON           92  68  91  71 /  60  60  40  30
ROME            87  68  87  71 /  50  30  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  87  67  88  69 /  70  50  40  50
VIDALIA         93  71  92  72 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300614
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...

BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END AS NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD EAST COAST
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS INITIATED TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE FIRST OF THESE LINES HAS DISSIPATED
WHICH WAS THE CLOSER ONE TO THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE SECOND HAS MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND IS SUSTAINING ITSELF MUCH BETTER. THINKING
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NW GEORGIA TO WARRANT SCT
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LIKELY BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW LINE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TUE FORECAST AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING COULD STABILIZE THAT
REGION. THIS WOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
FROM ATL SOUTHWARD WHERE CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL GA. COULD VERY WELL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS LATE TO
AFFECT NORTH GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LET
MID SHIFT FURTHER ANALYZE THIS RISK.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30 FOR TSRA 18-00Z...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED
TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING AS NEEDED AS STORMS DEVELOP. SW-W WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  69 /  60  30  40  40
ATLANTA         87  69  86  71 /  60  30  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  87  68 /  50  30  50  50
COLUMBUS        91  70  89  72 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     87  67  86  69 /  50  30  50  40
MACON           92  69  91  71 /  70  50  40  40
ROME            86  69  87  69 /  40  30  60  50
PEACHTREE CITY  88  68  88  70 /  60  40  40  40
VIDALIA         93  72  92  73 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300614
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...

BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END AS NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD EAST COAST
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS INITIATED TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE FIRST OF THESE LINES HAS DISSIPATED
WHICH WAS THE CLOSER ONE TO THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE SECOND HAS MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND IS SUSTAINING ITSELF MUCH BETTER. THINKING
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NW GEORGIA TO WARRANT SCT
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LIKELY BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW LINE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TUE FORECAST AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING COULD STABILIZE THAT
REGION. THIS WOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
FROM ATL SOUTHWARD WHERE CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL GA. COULD VERY WELL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS LATE TO
AFFECT NORTH GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LET
MID SHIFT FURTHER ANALYZE THIS RISK.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30 FOR TSRA 18-00Z...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED
TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING AS NEEDED AS STORMS DEVELOP. SW-W WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  69 /  60  30  40  40
ATLANTA         87  69  86  71 /  60  30  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  87  68 /  50  30  50  50
COLUMBUS        91  70  89  72 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     87  67  86  69 /  50  30  50  40
MACON           92  69  91  71 /  70  50  40  40
ROME            86  69  87  69 /  40  30  60  50
PEACHTREE CITY  88  68  88  70 /  60  40  40  40
VIDALIA         93  72  92  73 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300614
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...

BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END AS NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD EAST COAST
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS INITIATED TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE FIRST OF THESE LINES HAS DISSIPATED
WHICH WAS THE CLOSER ONE TO THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE SECOND HAS MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND IS SUSTAINING ITSELF MUCH BETTER. THINKING
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NW GEORGIA TO WARRANT SCT
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LIKELY BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW LINE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TUE FORECAST AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING COULD STABILIZE THAT
REGION. THIS WOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
FROM ATL SOUTHWARD WHERE CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL GA. COULD VERY WELL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS LATE TO
AFFECT NORTH GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LET
MID SHIFT FURTHER ANALYZE THIS RISK.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30 FOR TSRA 18-00Z...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED
TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING AS NEEDED AS STORMS DEVELOP. SW-W WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  69 /  60  30  40  40
ATLANTA         87  69  86  71 /  60  30  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  87  68 /  50  30  50  50
COLUMBUS        91  70  89  72 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     87  67  86  69 /  50  30  50  40
MACON           92  69  91  71 /  70  50  40  40
ROME            86  69  87  69 /  40  30  60  50
PEACHTREE CITY  88  68  88  70 /  60  40  40  40
VIDALIA         93  72  92  73 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300614
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...

BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END AS NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD EAST COAST
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS INITIATED TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE FIRST OF THESE LINES HAS DISSIPATED
WHICH WAS THE CLOSER ONE TO THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE SECOND HAS MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND IS SUSTAINING ITSELF MUCH BETTER. THINKING
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NW GEORGIA TO WARRANT SCT
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LIKELY BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW LINE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TUE FORECAST AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING COULD STABILIZE THAT
REGION. THIS WOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
FROM ATL SOUTHWARD WHERE CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL GA. COULD VERY WELL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS LATE TO
AFFECT NORTH GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LET
MID SHIFT FURTHER ANALYZE THIS RISK.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
PROB30 FOR TSRA 18-00Z...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE AMENDED
TO TEMPO OR PREVAILING AS NEEDED AS STORMS DEVELOP. SW-W WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TSRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  69 /  60  30  40  40
ATLANTA         87  69  86  71 /  60  30  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  68  87  68 /  50  30  50  50
COLUMBUS        91  70  89  72 /  60  50  40  30
GAINESVILLE     87  67  86  69 /  50  30  50  40
MACON           92  69  91  71 /  70  50  40  40
ROME            86  69  87  69 /  40  30  60  50
PEACHTREE CITY  88  68  88  70 /  60  40  40  40
VIDALIA         93  72  92  73 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300205
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END AS NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD EAST COAST
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS INITIATED TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE FIRST OF THESE LINES HAS DISSIPATED
WHICH WAS THE CLOSER ONE TO THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE SECOND HAS MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND IS SUSTAINING ITSELF MUCH BETTER. THINKING
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NW GEORGIA TO WARRANT SCT
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LIKELY BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW LINE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TUE FORECAST AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING COULD STABILIZE THAT
REGION. THIS WOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
FROM ATL SOUTHWARD WHERE CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL GA. COULD VERY WELL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS LATE TO
AFFECT NORTH GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LET
MID SHIFT FURTHER ANALYZE THIS RISK.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CURRENT LINE OF TSRA OVER TN IS DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES GA
AND EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THIS COMPLEX ENDS UP WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON TUE. THIS POSITION REMAINS
UNCLEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ON TSRA CHANCES AND
TIMING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LONGER PROB30 GROUP FOR ATL AND
SURROUNDING SITES WITH SOME REFINEMENT HOPEFULLY WITH SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  10  60  30  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  10  60  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  40  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  30  50  30  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  10  60  50  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  10  50  30  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  70  50  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  30  40  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  10  60  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /   5  60  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300205
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

BRIEF RESPITE FROM STORMS APPEARS TO BE COMING TO AN END AS NEXT
IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDS THE BASE OF BROAD EAST COAST
TROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HAS INITIATED TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE CAPE VALUES HAVE
BEEN AROUND 2500 J/KG. THE FIRST OF THESE LINES HAS DISSIPATED
WHICH WAS THE CLOSER ONE TO THE LOCAL AREA BUT THE SECOND HAS MORE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND IS SUSTAINING ITSELF MUCH BETTER. THINKING
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY IN PLACE OVER NW GEORGIA TO WARRANT SCT
POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LIKELY BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW LINE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DID MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE TUE FORECAST AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN THE MORNING COULD STABILIZE THAT
REGION. THIS WOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
FROM ATL SOUTHWARD WHERE CAPES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4000
J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY FOR
CENTRAL GA. COULD VERY WELL BE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS LATE TO
AFFECT NORTH GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LET
MID SHIFT FURTHER ANALYZE THIS RISK.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CURRENT LINE OF TSRA OVER TN IS DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES GA
AND EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THIS COMPLEX ENDS UP WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON TUE. THIS POSITION REMAINS
UNCLEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ON TSRA CHANCES AND
TIMING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LONGER PROB30 GROUP FOR ATL AND
SURROUNDING SITES WITH SOME REFINEMENT HOPEFULLY WITH SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  10  60  30  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  10  60  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  40  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  30  50  30  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  10  60  50  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  10  50  30  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  70  50  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  30  40  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  10  60  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /   5  60  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300025
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CURRENT LINE OF TSRA OVER TN IS DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES GA
AND EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THIS COMPLEX ENDS UP WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON TUE. THIS POSITION REMAINS
UNCLEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ON TSRA CHANCES AND
TIMING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LONGER PROB30 GROUP FOR ATL AND
SURROUNDING SITES WITH SOME REFINEMENT HOPEFULLY WITH SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  20  50  40  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  40  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  30  60  40  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  40  70  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300025
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CURRENT LINE OF TSRA OVER TN IS DIMINISHING AS IT APPROACHES GA
AND EXPECT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THIS COMPLEX ENDS UP WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON TUE. THIS POSITION REMAINS
UNCLEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ON TSRA CHANCES AND
TIMING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LONGER PROB30 GROUP FOR ATL AND
SURROUNDING SITES WITH SOME REFINEMENT HOPEFULLY WITH SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  20  50  40  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  40  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  30  60  40  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  40  70  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291929
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA


&&



.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR BKN050 CEILINGS BY 14Z AND BKN030 BY
16Z-18Z TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 12KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  20  50  40  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  40  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  30  60  40  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  40  70  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291929
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OFF QUIET BUT WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM THINGS CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE N GA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BY 00Z TUE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM AND ARE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME
STRONG DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
DOES HAVE MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT ITSELF DOES MOVE INTO NORTH GA BY
06-12Z TUE AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH WED
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS WANT TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WHICH IS WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OR
TEMPS HAVE  USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.

01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CWFA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW.

THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE EC SOLUTION...WITH THE FLATTENING OUT
OF THE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.

NLISTEMAA


&&



.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR BKN050 CEILINGS BY 14Z AND BKN030 BY
16Z-18Z TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 12KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  91  67  90 /  20  50  40  40
ATLANTA         72  87  69  86 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  63  81 /  40  60  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    69  86  68  87 /  40  70  40  50
COLUMBUS        73  91  70  89 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     69  87  67  86 /  30  60  40  50
MACON           70  92  69  91 /  10  40  40  40
ROME            69  86  69  87 /  40  70  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  88  68  88 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         72  93  72  92 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 -SHRA FOR ATL AFTER 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR BKN050 CEILINGS BY 14Z AND BKN030 BY
16Z-18Z TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 12KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 -SHRA FOR ATL AFTER 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR BKN050 CEILINGS BY 14Z AND BKN030 BY
16Z-18Z TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 12KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 -SHRA FOR ATL AFTER 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR BKN050 CEILINGS BY 14Z AND BKN030 BY
16Z-18Z TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 12KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291757
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 -SHRA FOR ATL AFTER 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
THINGS WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR BKN050 CEILINGS BY 14Z AND BKN030 BY
16Z-18Z TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL ALSO BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 12KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
732 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 -SHRA FOR ATL AFTER 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W-WSW AT 7-9KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE MONDAY...BUT ANY IMPACT TO THE
TAF SITES IS JUST OUTSIDE THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHORT TERM PERIOD RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SHIFT TO A MORE
ACTIVE/DYNAMIC PATTERN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING POPS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. SPC DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN DIFFERENCES
DEVELOP IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS
ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THESE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THIS AREA
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ENERGY. AFTER FRIDAY THE ECMWF BUILDS A 594
HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WESTERLYS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS AND KEEP LOWER POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
WELL AS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEARLY
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W-WSW AT 7-9KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE MONDAY...BUT ANY IMPACT TO THE
TAF SITES IS JUST OUTSIDE THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          91  67  90  67 /   5  20  50  40
ATLANTA         89  71  86  69 /   5  20  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  79  63 /  20  40  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    90  68  85  68 /  10  40  70  40
COLUMBUS        91  73  90  71 /   0  20  40  40
GAINESVILLE     87  68  86  67 /   5  30  60  40
MACON           91  69  91  69 /   0  10  40  40
ROME            89  68  85  69 /  20  40  70  40
PEACHTREE CITY  89  67  87  67 /   5  20  50  40
VIDALIA         91  72  93  72 /   5  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31





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