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000
FXUS62 KFFC 300057
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WHEN/IF LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERLY FLOW ON PLACE. MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO CLOUDY/OVERCAST...BUT DO SUSPECT SKIES
COULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAWN. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS. ALSO...HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW
GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE
EAST...MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO KEY IN OFF OF FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY WITH STORMS DISSIPATING TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...HI-RES MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FROM
CONVECTION BUT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER HARD TO
PIN POINT WHERE THIS LULL WILL SET UP.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT TRENDS.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS COVER THIS WELL AND MINIMUM CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREV LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF THE FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME. OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS
TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW
SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND
MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE
ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE
85TH PARALLEL AND THUS CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS
DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO
LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT
MORE THUS MAKING THE ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO
POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY
FOR NUANCES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH
DAY THRU THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO PROG SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT IN
THE EAST FLOW. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE.
NO PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
ATLANTA         67  84  69  84 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        67  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     65  82  67  83 /  10  20  20  40
MACON           65  88  67  87 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            64  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  66  85 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         68  86  69  88 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300057
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE WHEN/IF LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE EASTERLY FLOW ON PLACE. MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO CLOUDY/OVERCAST...BUT DO SUSPECT SKIES
COULD BE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAWN. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS. ALSO...HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW
GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE
EAST...MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO KEY IN OFF OF FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY WITH STORMS DISSIPATING TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...HI-RES MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FROM
CONVECTION BUT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER HARD TO
PIN POINT WHERE THIS LULL WILL SET UP.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT TRENDS.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS COVER THIS WELL AND MINIMUM CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREV LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF THE FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME. OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS
TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW
SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND
MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE
ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE
85TH PARALLEL AND THUS CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS
DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO
LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT
MORE THUS MAKING THE ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO
POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY
FOR NUANCES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH
DAY THRU THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO PROG SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT IN
THE EAST FLOW. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE.
NO PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
ATLANTA         67  84  69  84 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        67  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     65  82  67  83 /  10  20  20  40
MACON           65  88  67  87 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            64  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  66  85 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         68  86  69  88 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 292334
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE
EAST...MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO KEY IN OFF OF FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY WITH STORMS DISSIPATING TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...HI-RES MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FROM
CONVECTION BUT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER HARD TO
PIN POINT WHERE THIS LULL WILL SET UP.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT TRENDS.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS COVER THIS WELL AND MINIMUM CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREV LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF THE FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME. OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS
TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW
SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND
MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE
ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE
85TH PARALLEL AND THUS CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS
DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO
LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT
MORE THUS MAKING THE ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO
POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY
FOR NUANCES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH
DAY THRU THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO PROG SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT IN
THE EAST FLOW. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE.
NO PRECIP.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
ATLANTA         67  84  69  84 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        67  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     65  82  67  83 /  10  20  20  40
MACON           65  88  67  87 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            64  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  66  85 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         68  86  69  88 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 292334
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE
EAST...MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO KEY IN OFF OF FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY WITH STORMS DISSIPATING TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...HI-RES MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FROM
CONVECTION BUT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER HARD TO
PIN POINT WHERE THIS LULL WILL SET UP.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT TRENDS.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS COVER THIS WELL AND MINIMUM CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREV LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF THE FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME. OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS
TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW
SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND
MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE
ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE
85TH PARALLEL AND THUS CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS
DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO
LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT
MORE THUS MAKING THE ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO
POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY
FOR NUANCES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH
DAY THRU THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO PROG SOME LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT IN
THE EAST FLOW. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO HAVE
KEPT THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE.
NO PRECIP.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
ATLANTA         67  84  69  84 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        67  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     65  82  67  83 /  10  20  20  40
MACON           65  88  67  87 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            64  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  66  85 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         68  86  69  88 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE
EAST...MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO KEY IN OFF OF FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY WITH STORMS DISSIPATING TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...HI-RES MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FROM
CONVECTION BUT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER HARD TO
PIN POINT WHERE THIS LULL WILL SET UP.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

11


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT TRENDS.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS COVER THIS WELL AND MINIMUM CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

20


PREV LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF THE FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME. OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS
TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW
SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND
MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE
ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE
85TH PARALLEL AND THUS CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS
DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO
LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT
MORE THUS MAKING THE ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO
POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY
FOR NUANCES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH
DAY THRU THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SMALL CHANCE
THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH...AT LEAST OF
ATL. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAF IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
TOMORROW MORNING AT SITES. HAVE INCLUDED FEW-SCT005 TO HINT AT
THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THROUGH
08Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
ATLANTA         67  84  69  84 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        67  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     65  82  67  83 /  10  20  20  40
MACON           65  88  67  87 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            64  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  66  85 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         68  86  69  88 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE
EAST...MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS CLOSER TO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO KEY IN OFF OF FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY WITH STORMS DISSIPATING TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...HI-RES MODELS
ARE PICKING UP ON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE REST OF THE CWA FROM
CONVECTION BUT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER HARD TO
PIN POINT WHERE THIS LULL WILL SET UP.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.

11


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM RECENT TRENDS.
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS COVER THIS WELL AND MINIMUM CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

20


PREV LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND NORTH
AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF THE FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME. OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS
TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW
SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND
MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE
ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE
85TH PARALLEL AND THUS CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS
DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO
LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT
MORE THUS MAKING THE ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO
POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY
FOR NUANCES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH
DAY THRU THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SMALL CHANCE
THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH...AT LEAST OF
ATL. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAF IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
TOMORROW MORNING AT SITES. HAVE INCLUDED FEW-SCT005 TO HINT AT
THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THROUGH
08Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  67  86 /  10  20  20  30
ATLANTA         67  84  69  84 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  79  62  79 /  20  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  66  84 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        67  88  69  88 /   5  10  10  30
GAINESVILLE     65  82  67  83 /  10  20  20  40
MACON           65  88  67  87 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            64  85  66  84 /  20  20  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  66  85 /   5  10  20  30
VIDALIA         68  86  69  88 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291743 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS...CUT BACK ON POPS
INITIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO 12 HOUR POP VALUES THOUGH.

OTHER CHANGES WERE BASICALLY JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

11


SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SMALL CHANCE
THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH...AT LEAST OF
ATL. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAF IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
TOMORROW MORNING AT SITES. HAVE INCLUDED FEW-SCT005 TO HINT AT
THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THROUGH
08Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  40  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291743 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS...CUT BACK ON POPS
INITIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO 12 HOUR POP VALUES THOUGH.

OTHER CHANGES WERE BASICALLY JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

11


SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SOME SHOWERS/CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SMALL CHANCE
THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AROUND THE ATL AREA TAF SITES BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH...AT LEAST OF
ATL. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAF IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
TOMORROW MORNING AT SITES. HAVE INCLUDED FEW-SCT005 TO HINT AT
THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THROUGH
08Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  40  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291448 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS...CUT BACK ON POPS
INITIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO 12 HOUR POP VALUES THOUGH.

OTHER CHANGES WERE BASICALLY JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
IFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  40  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291448 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS...CUT BACK ON POPS
INITIALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO 12 HOUR POP VALUES THOUGH.

OTHER CHANGES WERE BASICALLY JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
IFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  10  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  30  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  40  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.


41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291139
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.


41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.


41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER
14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.


41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER
14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.


41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER
14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GA TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR INDICATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME MOISTURE MOVING ON SHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCED...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS
FOR THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREAS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE.


41


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SYNOPSIS...00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL PATTERN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY APPEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEAN TROF THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE LAST MONTH IT SEEMS BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. GA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND WANING BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROF SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NW GA SAT AND
NORTH AND WEST OF I85 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS EACH DAY.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON MONDAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW AS
ENERGY RIDES OVER THE DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE BASE OF
THE FAIRLY SHALLOW TROF CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER AT THAT TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS WANTS TO CUT THE LOW OFF OVER LA WHICH PUTS OUR
REGION ON THE MOIST FLOW SIDE WITH A TAP INTO A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY WED AND MAKING FOR A MUCH WETTER WEEK. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DELAYS THE ONSET OF CUTTING THE LOW OFF
UNTIL THE MEAN TROF GETS TO AROUND THE 85TH PARALLEL AND THUS
CENTERING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA. THIS DIFFERENCE PUTS OUR AREA ON
THE DRIER NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE
RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE A BIT MORE THUS MAKING THE
ECMWF AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. CARRYING ABOVE CLIMO POPS EACH DAY FOR
NOW THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH DAY FOR NUANCES AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON
THE TABLE EACH DAY AS PW VALUES...PER THE GFS...EACH DAY THRU
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
STATISTICALLY IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

KS

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER
14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  86  67 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         83  67  84  69 /  30  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  60  79  62 /  40  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    84  64  85  66 /  40  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  67  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  40  20  20  20
MACON           87  64  88  68 /  10   5  10  10
ROME            84  64  86  66 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  63  86  65 /  30  10  10  10
VIDALIA         88  68  87  69 /  10   5  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290550
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND LOSE SOME
STRENGTH. ADJUSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIP AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MOIST GULF FLOW. WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE FORMING LINES UP WELL WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE SE PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THINKING WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WELL WITH SPC HAVING THAT SAME AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AS WELL.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

DEEP YET RATHER WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SUN. FUELED MAINLY FROM SFC HEATING AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN
INSTABILITY FIELDS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 80-85F TEMPS NORTH
GA. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUES)...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL "FEATURE"
WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT/LIFT. DIURNAL CONVECTION/REMNANT MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE INITIATION AND INTENSITY BUT STILL
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPR LVL LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST TX BY WED/THU WITH A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
/PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5"/ REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS MS/AL/TN
AND GA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MACON TO COLUMBUS LINE...THAT RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AND MONITOR.

DJN.83



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSLTY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER
14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
ATLANTA         67  84  66  85 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  80  61  80 /  60  40  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  64  86 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        67  88  66  88 /  20  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  20  10
MACON           63  88  64  88 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            65  85  64  86 /  50  50  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  63  86 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         65  88  67  87 /  10   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290550
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015



.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND LOSE SOME
STRENGTH. ADJUSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIP AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MOIST GULF FLOW. WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE FORMING LINES UP WELL WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE SE PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THINKING WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WELL WITH SPC HAVING THAT SAME AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AS WELL.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

DEEP YET RATHER WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SUN. FUELED MAINLY FROM SFC HEATING AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN
INSTABILITY FIELDS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 80-85F TEMPS NORTH
GA. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUES)...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL "FEATURE"
WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT/LIFT. DIURNAL CONVECTION/REMNANT MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE INITIATION AND INTENSITY BUT STILL
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPR LVL LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST TX BY WED/THU WITH A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
/PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5"/ REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS MS/AL/TN
AND GA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MACON TO COLUMBUS LINE...THAT RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AND MONITOR.

DJN.83



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR EXPECTED INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. IMPROVING
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. MOSLTY DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT BECOMING 8 TO 10KT AFTER
14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
ATLANTA         67  84  66  85 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  80  61  80 /  60  40  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  64  86 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        67  88  66  88 /  20  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  20  10
MACON           63  88  64  88 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            65  85  64  86 /  50  50  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  63  86 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         65  88  67  87 /  10   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND LOSE SOME
STRENGTH. ADJUSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIP AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MOIST GULF FLOW. WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE FORMING LINES UP WELL WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE SE PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THINKING WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WELL WITH SPC HAVING THAT SAME AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AS WELL.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

DEEP YET RATHER WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SUN. FUELED MAINLY FROM SFC HEATING AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN
INSTABILITY FIELDS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 80-85F TEMPS NORTH
GA. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUES)...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL "FEATURE"
WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT/LIFT. DIURNAL CONVECTION/REMNANT MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE INITIATION AND INTENSITY BUT STILL
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPR LVL LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST TX BY WED/THU WITH A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
/PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5"/ REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS MS/AL/TN
AND GA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MACON TO COLUMBUS LINE...THAT RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AND MONITOR.

DJN.83



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED DURING PEAK HEATING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT MAY END UP BEING LESS THAN 5KT. MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
ATLANTA         67  84  66  85 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  80  61  80 /  60  40  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  64  86 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        67  88  66  88 /  20  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  20  10
MACON           63  88  64  88 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            65  85  64  86 /  50  50  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  63  86 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         65  88  67  87 /  10   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 282341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
741 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND LOSE SOME
STRENGTH. ADJUSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PRECIP AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEW GRIDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MOIST GULF FLOW. WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE FORMING LINES UP WELL WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE SE PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THINKING WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WELL WITH SPC HAVING THAT SAME AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AS WELL.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

DEEP YET RATHER WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SUN. FUELED MAINLY FROM SFC HEATING AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN
INSTABILITY FIELDS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 80-85F TEMPS NORTH
GA. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUES)...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL "FEATURE"
WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT/LIFT. DIURNAL CONVECTION/REMNANT MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE INITIATION AND INTENSITY BUT STILL
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPR LVL LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST TX BY WED/THU WITH A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
/PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5"/ REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS MS/AL/TN
AND GA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MACON TO COLUMBUS LINE...THAT RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AND MONITOR.

DJN.83



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED DURING PEAK HEATING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT MAY END UP BEING LESS THAN 5KT. MAIN PRECIP AXIS SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
ATLANTA         67  84  66  85 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  80  61  80 /  60  40  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  64  86 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        67  88  66  88 /  20  20  10  10
GAINESVILLE     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  20  10
MACON           63  88  64  88 /  20  10   5  10
ROME            65  85  64  86 /  50  50  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  85  63  86 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         65  88  67  87 /  10   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281919
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
ORIENTED ROUGHLY 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MOIST GULF FLOW. WHERE THESE
STORMS ARE FORMING LINES UP WELL WITH THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THIS LOCATION. WITH THIS IN
MIND THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MOVING IN ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE SE PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THINKING WE WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA NORTH
AND WEST OF LAGRANGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE. THIS ALSO LINES UP
WELL WITH SPC HAVING THAT SAME AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AS WELL.

01

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR LVL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

DEEP YET RATHER WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION YIELDING ISOLD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT/SUN. FUELED MAINLY FROM SFC HEATING AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM GIVEN
INSTABILITY FIELDS. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH 80-85F TEMPS NORTH
GA. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON/TUES)...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL "FEATURE"
WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT/LIFT. DIURNAL CONVECTION/REMNANT MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE INITIATION AND INTENSITY BUT STILL
NOT LOOKING AT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPR LVL LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN
MS AND SOUTHEAST TX BY WED/THU WITH A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
/PWAT VALUES AOA 1.5"/ REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS MS/AL/TN
AND GA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A MACON TO COLUMBUS LINE...THAT RECEIVE 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
AND MONITOR.

DJN.83

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 02-04Z FRI. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MORE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE S TO SE AT 10KT OF LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME VARIABLE GUST TO 20 OR 25KT IN AND AROUND ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. VSBYS WILL STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  84  64  86 /  30  30  10  10
ATLANTA         67  83  66  84 /  40  40  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  79  61  80 /  40  40  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  84  64  85 /  40  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        67  87  66  87 /  20  30  10  10
GAINESVILLE     66  82  65  83 /  40  40  20  10
MACON           63  87  64  87 /  20  20   5  20
ROME            65  84  64  85 /  40  50  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  84  63  85 /  30  40  10  10
VIDALIA         65  87  68  87 /  10  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 02-04Z FRI. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MORE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE S TO SE AT 10KT OF LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME VARIABLE GUST TO 20 OR 25KT IN AND AROUND ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. VSBYS WILL STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 02-04Z FRI. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MORE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE S TO SE AT 10KT OF LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME VARIABLE GUST TO 20 OR 25KT IN AND AROUND ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. VSBYS WILL STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 02-04Z FRI. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MORE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY. WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE S TO SE AT 10KT OF LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME VARIABLE GUST TO 20 OR 25KT IN AND AROUND ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. VSBYS WILL STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA WERE LINGERING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. MOST CEILINGS ARE VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT
SOME AREAS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COULD START EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT
GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA WERE LINGERING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. MOST CEILINGS ARE VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT
SOME AREAS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COULD START EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT
GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA...OR WEST OF GA. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHERE/WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP...BUT THEY
ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         82  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  78  63 /  20  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        83  68  84  68 /  50  40  50  20
GAINESVILLE     80  65  81  65 /  20  30  40  40
MACON           87  66  84  64 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            83  65  82  65 /  40  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  30
VIDALIA         86  67  89  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
AVIATION...41
LONG TERM...33




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA...OR WEST OF GA. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHERE/WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP...BUT THEY
ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         82  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  78  63 /  20  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        83  68  84  68 /  50  40  50  20
GAINESVILLE     80  65  81  65 /  20  30  40  40
MACON           87  66  84  64 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            83  65  82  65 /  40  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  30
VIDALIA         86  67  89  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
AVIATION...41
LONG TERM...33





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA...OR WEST OF GA. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHERE/WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP...BUT THEY
ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         82  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  78  63 /  20  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        83  68  84  68 /  50  40  50  20
GAINESVILLE     80  65  81  65 /  20  30  40  40
MACON           87  66  84  64 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            83  65  82  65 /  40  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  30
VIDALIA         86  67  89  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
AVIATION...41
LONG TERM...33




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015



.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA...OR WEST OF GA. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHERE/WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP...BUT THEY
ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z
ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES THAT GET RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BUT GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         82  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  78  63 /  20  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        83  68  84  68 /  50  40  50  20
GAINESVILLE     80  65  81  65 /  20  30  40  40
MACON           87  66  84  64 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            83  65  82  65 /  40  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  30
VIDALIA         86  67  89  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
AVIATION...41
LONG TERM...33





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280150
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AL THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE METRO AREA...OR WEST OF GA. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHERE/WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP...BUT THEY
ALL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS GA. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS DO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL DEPEND UPON RAIN FALLING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AT 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  30
ATLANTA         82  68  82  67 /  30  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  78  63 /  20  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    81  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        83  68  84  68 /  50  40  50  20
GAINESVILLE     80  65  81  65 /  20  30  40  40
MACON           87  66  84  64 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            83  65  82  65 /  40  50  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  81  65 /  40  40  50  30
VIDALIA         86  67  89  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 272335
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS DO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL DEPEND UPON RAIN FALLING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AT 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 272335
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS DO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL DEPEND UPON RAIN FALLING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AT 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 272335
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS DO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL DEPEND UPON RAIN FALLING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AT 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 272335
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HI-RES MODELS DO WEAKEN CONVECTION AS IT CROSSES THE AL/GA STATE
LINE. NOT CONFIDENT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT
WILL DEPEND UPON RAIN FALLING AT THE TERMINAL SITES. MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...AS RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AT 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271950
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH DEGRADING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEREAFTER. TS
POTENTIAL LARGELY EXPECTED 00-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTER. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS EARLY.
BEST TS POTENTIAL THU 18-22Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VRB...WITH MORE OF A SSW DIRECTION TODAY AND SE ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271950
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH DEGRADING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEREAFTER. TS
POTENTIAL LARGELY EXPECTED 00-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTER. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS EARLY.
BEST TS POTENTIAL THU 18-22Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VRB...WITH MORE OF A SSW DIRECTION TODAY AND SE ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH DEGRADING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEREAFTER. TS
POTENTIAL LARGELY EXPECTED 00-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTER. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS EARLY.
BEST TS POTENTIAL THU 18-22Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VRB...WITH MORE OF A SSW DIRECTION TODAY AND SE ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  40  40  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  50  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  50  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  50  40  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH DEGRADING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEREAFTER. TS
POTENTIAL LARGELY EXPECTED 00-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTER. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS EARLY.
BEST TS POTENTIAL THU 18-22Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VRB...WITH MORE OF A SSW DIRECTION TODAY AND SE ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  40  40  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  40  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  50  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  50  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  50  40  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY WITH SOME LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN ALL TAFS. MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY SWITCH
TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT
TIMING AND SW WINDS. MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  50  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  30  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  60  30  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY WITH SOME LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN ALL TAFS. MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY SWITCH
TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT
TIMING AND SW WINDS. MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  50  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  30  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  60  30  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY WITH SOME LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN ALL TAFS. MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY SWITCH
TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT
TIMING AND SW WINDS. MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  50  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  30  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  60  30  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 271138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE GRADUALLY WITH SOME LOW
VFR POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN ALL TAFS. MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY SWITCH
TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT
TIMING AND SW WINDS. MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  50  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  30  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  60  30  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270746
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TODAY. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAFS. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT TIMING AND SW WINDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  50  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  30  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  60  30  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270746
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAYS SHORT WAVE HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY TO THE EAST BUT A PORTION OF
IT MAY TRAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING MAINLY NORTH TODAY. HAVE REDUCED
THE POPS FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND REMNANTS OF THE SHORT WAVE...LIKELY POPS LOOK OKAY FOR CENTRAL
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON EXCEPT SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SO GENERALLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY MOST
AREAS...35 TO 45 PERCENT.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS SOME PLACES HAVE DROPPED BELOW
3 MILES VISIBILITY. NOT THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

41

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH A MUCH WEAKER SW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TODAY. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAFS. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT TIMING AND SW WINDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  66  85  65 /  50  30  40  40
ATLANTA         83  68  84  67 /  50  30  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  80  62 /  40  30  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  65  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        86  68  87  67 /  60  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     81  66  83  65 /  40  30  40  50
MACON           86  66  87  65 /  60  30  40  20
ROME            83  65  84  66 /  40  30  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  65  85  65 /  60  30  40  30
VIDALIA         87  67  87  66 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270553
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TODAY. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAFS. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT TIMING AND SW WINDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270553
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TODAY. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAFS. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT TIMING AND SW WINDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270553
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TODAY. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAFS. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT TIMING AND SW WINDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270553
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBLITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z TODAY. MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAFS. WINDS MAY SWITCH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILING IMPROVEMENT TIMING AND SW WINDS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270300
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF STRONG TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES BUT A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA REMAINS. THIS TOO WILL SPREAD
EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPECT MFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z WED. WILL KEEP PREDOMINANT TSRA FOR WED
AFTERNOON FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK TO A TEMPO WITH
LATER ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD TIMING AND TSRA WED.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 270300
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF STRONG TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES BUT A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA REMAINS. THIS TOO WILL SPREAD
EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPECT MFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z WED. WILL KEEP PREDOMINANT TSRA FOR WED
AFTERNOON FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK TO A TEMPO WITH
LATER ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD TIMING AND TSRA WED.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 270300
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

FINALLY GETTING ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS. SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH ALL SITES IN THE
FORECAST AREA MEASURING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DCAPE AXIS
RESIDED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
INDEED PROVED TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS RESIDED. WILL
BE SENDING CREWS TO INVESTIGATE HARRIS AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES AS
DAMAGE THERE WAS MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN OTHERS. OTHERWISE...NOT
REALLY SEEING MUCH UPSTREAM DESPITE SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT. FEEL IMPACTS OF BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
WITH DOWNWARD MOTION WILL BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM IS
JUST A LITTLE DRIER. WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER AL/GA. THINKING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING DIMINISHING THE PRECIP SOMEWHAT...BUT THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INCREASING THE
PRECIP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
HIGH K INDEX VALUES ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL
KEEP THE THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A MOIST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SCALE BACK RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
TO AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
RATHER HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF STRONG TSRA HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES BUT A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA REMAINS. THIS TOO WILL SPREAD
EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EXPECT MFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z WED. WILL KEEP PREDOMINANT TSRA FOR WED
AFTERNOON FOR NOW BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK TO A TEMPO WITH
LATER ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LOW CLOUD TIMING AND TSRA WED.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  79  65 /  70  80  80  80
ATLANTA         84  68  80  65 / 100  50  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     74  65  76  60 / 100  60  80  80
CARTERSVILLE    82  67  81  65 / 100  50  80  80
COLUMBUS        88  69  82  66 / 100  50  80  80
GAINESVILLE     79  65  78  63 / 100  60  80  80
MACON           93  68  82  65 /  70  50  70  70
ROME            82  67  81  66 / 100  50  80  80
PEACHTREE CITY  86  66  79  65 / 100  50  80  80
VIDALIA         91  70  87  68 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




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