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000
FXUS62 KFFC 210232 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS BUT WOULD AMOUNT TO
NO WORDING CHANGES IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS. HOURLY TEMPS WERE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL CURVE IS SETTLING DOWN
NOW. NO UPDATES TO PRODUCTS ANTICIPATED.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS STILL HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
5KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT AROUND NW AND W ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. CURRENT TIMING IS AROUND 17Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 202330 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS STILL HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
5KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT AROUND NW AND W ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. CURRENT TIMING IS AROUND 17Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP SKIES
CLEAR EXCEPT THE AREA CSG TO MCN. EXPECT SOME CEILINGS AROUND
035-045 TO LINGER THERE UNTIL AROUND 00Z...THEN CLEARING. WINDS
REMAINING EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
22KT UNTIL 00Z THEN DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TURN WINDS
TO THE WEST BY 15Z TO 17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON CLOUDS DISSIPATING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41







000
FXUS62 KFFC 201753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR
EXCEPT THE AREA CSG TO MCN. EXPECT SOME CEILINGS AROUND 035-045 TO
LINGER THERE UNTIL AROUND 00Z...THEN CLEARING. WINDS REMAINING EAST
TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 22KT UNTIL 00Z
THEN DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TURN WINDS TO THE WEST BY
15Z TO 17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON CLOUDS DISSIPATING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE













000
FXUS62 KFFC 201412
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT JUST SOUTH OF
THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WILL GO WITH VFR FOR ATL TERMINALS AND AHN AS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IFR AND MVFR CIG MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR THEM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE
MOMENT AT ALL SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID
MORNING BUT ONLY LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF
AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE










000
FXUS62 KFFC 201119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT JUST SOUTH OF
THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WILL GO WITH VFR FOR ATL TERMINALS AND AHN AS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IFR AND MVFR CIG MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR THEM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE
MOMENT AT ALL SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID
MORNING BUT ONLY LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF
AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST 4 HOURS UNTIL MORE OF
A TREND IS ESTABLISHED AND THEN DECIDE ON PREDOMINANT VFR OR MVFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIG MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THEM THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE MOMENT AT ALL
SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID MORNING BUT ONLY
LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200554
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS TO ADD DETAIL TO
POPS AND END MEASURABLE PRECIP A LITTLE EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THAT SAID...DID LEAVE DRIZZLE
WORDING IN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR NOW...TEMPS DOING OKAY BUT DRIER
DEWPOINTS FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THINNING. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS YET AS IT IS STILL A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS BUT WILL BE
MONITORING. WILL SEND A ROUND OF PRODUCT UPDATES SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GA/FL BORDER
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN HOW HIGH OR LOW THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA SE OF MCN WHERE SOME MUCAPE COULD FIRE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY 00Z.

THE LINGERING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO START EASTER SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR E CENTRAL COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL GA...WILL END QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BUT ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT BUT WILL KICK UP AGAIN FOR PART OF
SUNDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY RUNNING
5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MCN HAVING THAT 12 DEGREE DEPARTURE
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BDL

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK OKAY. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...12Z MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SHORT WAVE SET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST 4 HOURS UNTIL MORE OF
A TREND IS ESTABLISHED AND THEN DECIDE ON PREDOMINANT VFR OR MVFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIG MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THEM THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE MOMENT AT ALL
SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID MORNING BUT ONLY
LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  46  78  54 /   5   0   5  10
ATLANTA         68  52  77  57 /   5   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     70  46  75  52 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    72  49  77  54 /   0   0   5  30
COLUMBUS        70  52  79  57 /   5   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     67  49  74  56 /   0   0   5  30
MACON           66  48  78  55 /   5   0   5  10
ROME            73  48  78  55 /   0   0   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  47  77  53 /   5   0   5  20
VIDALIA         66  53  79  56 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200129 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
929 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS TO ADD DETAIL TO
POPS AND END MEASURABLE PRECIP A LITTLE EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THAT SAID...DID LEAVE DRIZZLE
WORDING IN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FOR NOW...TEMPS DOING OKAY BUT DRIER
DEWPOINTS FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THINNING. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS YET AS IT IS STILL A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON TRENDS BUT WILL BE
MONITORING. WILL SEND A ROUND OF PRODUCT UPDATES SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GA/FL BORDER
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN HOW HIGH OR LOW THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA SE OF MCN WHERE SOME MUCAPE COULD FIRE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY 00Z.

THE LINGERING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO START EASTER SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR E CENTRAL COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL GA...WILL END QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BUT ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT BUT WILL KICK UP AGAIN FOR PART OF
SUNDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY RUNNING
5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MCN HAVING THAT 12 DEGREE DEPARTURE
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BDL

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK OKAY. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...12Z MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SHORT WAVE SET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LOW VFR PREDOMINATES THE METRO TAFS...STILL MVFR AT AHN/MCN/CSG
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. METRO TAFS...ESPECIALLY ATL...
WILL PROBABLY GO MVFR AGAIN BRIEFLY...CURRENT TIMING IS 07-10Z...
LIFTING BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER BUT STAYING LOW VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. SHOULD SEE -DZ OR -RA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS
TO SCATTER AROUND 20-21Z FOR NORTHERN TAFS. WINDS E TO NE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS...SPECIFICALLY GUSTS.
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND VSBY.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  68  46  78 /  30   5   0   5
ATLANTA         49  68  52  77 /  30   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  70  46  75 /  30   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    49  72  49  77 /  30   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  52  79 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     49  67  49  74 /  30   0   0   5
MACON           50  66  48  78 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            49  73  48  78 /  30   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  69  47  77 /  30   5   0   5
VIDALIA         52  66  53  79 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 192337 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GA/FL BORDER
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN HOW HIGH OR LOW THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA SE OF MCN WHERE SOME MUCAPE COULD FIRE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY 00Z.

THE LINGERING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO START EASTER SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR E CENTRAL COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL GA...WILL END QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BUT ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT BUT WILL KICK UP AGAIN FOR PART OF
SUNDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY RUNNING
5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MCN HAVING THAT 12 DEGREE DEPARTURE
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BDL

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK OKAY. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...12Z MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SHORT WAVE SET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LOW VFR PREDOMINATES THE METRO TAFS...STILL MVFR AT AHN/MCN/CSG
AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. METRO TAFS...ESPECIALLY ATL...
WILL PROBABLY GO MVFR AGAIN BRIEFLY...CURRENT TIMING IS 07-10Z...
LIFTING BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER BUT STAYING LOW VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. SHOULD SEE -DZ OR -RA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS
TO SCATTER AROUND 20-21Z FOR NORTHERN TAFS. WINDS E TO NE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS...SPECIFICALLY GUSTS.
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND VSBY.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  68  46  78 /  30   5   0   5
ATLANTA         49  68  52  77 /  30   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  70  46  75 /  30   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    49  72  49  77 /  30   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  52  79 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     49  67  49  74 /  30   0   0   5
MACON           50  66  48  78 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            49  73  48  78 /  30   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  69  47  77 /  30   5   0   5
VIDALIA         52  66  53  79 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN GA/FL BORDER
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN HOW HIGH OR LOW THE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE AND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE AREA SE OF MCN WHERE SOME MUCAPE COULD FIRE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY BY 00Z.

THE LINGERING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO START EASTER SUNDAY OVER THE
FAR E CENTRAL COUNTIES...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL GA...WILL END QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY. THEN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA BUT ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT BUT WILL KICK UP AGAIN FOR PART OF
SUNDAY.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER SUNDAY RUNNING
5-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MCN HAVING THAT 12 DEGREE DEPARTURE
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.


BDL


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
LOOK OKAY. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...12Z MODELS SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT. NEXT SHORT WAVE SET FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
INCLUDED BELOW.


41



PREVIOUS LONG TERM /415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR AND LOWER VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MAINLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
OCCASIONAL/PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. SURFACE WIND NNE 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. IMPROVEMENT TRENDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  68  46  78 /  30  10   0   5
ATLANTA         49  68  52  77 /  30   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  70  46  75 /  30   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    49  72  49  77 /  30   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  52  79 /  10   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     49  67  49  74 /  30   0   0   5
MACON           50  66  48  78 /  20   5   0   5
ROME            49  73  48  78 /  30   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  69  47  77 /  30   5   0   5
VIDALIA         52  66  53  79 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191722 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. NOT MUCH DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALL IN ALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NE FLORIDA WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN COOL NE FLOW
REGIME. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS
UP VERY WELL ON UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH PROMINENT DRY SLOT STREAKING NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL AND MOST OF NE GEORGIA AT THIS HOUR.
RESPONSE ON RADAR HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITHING THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. MAIN
ACTIVITY NOW WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN THAT IS MAINLY OVER
THE ALABAMA PORTION WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY WITHIN NORTH GA
PORTION OF AXIS. WILL THEREFORE REDUCE POPS IN INITIALIZED GRIDS
THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTION WITH POPS TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY DEFORMATION
AXIS FILLS BACK IN AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS LONG AS DRY SLOT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH NAM12 INDICATES WILL BE AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE ON POPS.
WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGHER
POPS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE AS AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WELL WE ARE NOW RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOW LEVEL JET EVENT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS BUT SURFACE STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG WITH ONLY LIMITED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSLATION TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS BUT ONLY IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES AND GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED WINDS CURRENTLY AS WELL
AS FORECAST COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY
DIE AT 12Z WITH NO PLANS FOR EXTENSION.

DEESE

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH MAIN ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS ABATED...STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOOD  WITH ISOLATED AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
REMAINING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO FLOOD. DESPITE THIS...NOT ENOUGH
EXPECTED TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH AND WILL CANCEL WITH
12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR AND LOWER VFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MAINLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
OCCASIONAL/PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. SURFACE WIND NNE 10-15 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. IMPROVEMENT TRENDS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  48  67  50 /  60  30  10   0
ATLANTA         58  49  66  53 /  90  30   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     60  48  69  48 / 100  30   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    61  50  70  52 / 100  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  51  69  54 /  30  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     56  49  66  51 / 100  30   0   0
MACON           59  50  69  52 /  30  20   5   0
ROME            64  51  72  51 / 100  30   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  66  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         61  53  70  54 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191405 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. NOT MUCH DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALL IN ALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/


SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NE FLORIDA WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN COOL NE FLOW
REGIME. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS
UP VERY WELL ON UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH PROMINENT DRY SLOT STREAKING NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL AND MOST OF NE GEORGIA AT THIS HOUR.
RESPONSE ON RADAR HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITHING THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. MAIN
ACTIVITY NOW WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN THAT IS MAINLY OVER
THE ALABAMA PORTION WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY WITHIN NORTH GA
PORTION OF AXIS. WILL THEREFORE REDUCE POPS IN INITIALIZED GRIDS
THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTION WITH POPS TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY DEFORMATION
AXIS FILLS BACK IN AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS LONG AS DRY SLOT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH NAM12 INDICATES WILL BE AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE ON POPS.
WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGHER
POPS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE AS AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WELL WE ARE NOW RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOW LEVEL JET EVENT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS BUT SURFACE STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG WITH ONLY LIMITED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSLATION TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS BUT ONLY IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES AND GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED WINDS CURRENTLY AS WELL
AS FORECAST COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY
DIE AT 12Z WITH NO PLANS FOR EXTENSION.

DEESE

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH MAIN ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS ABATED...STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOOD  WITH ISOLATED AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
REMAINING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO FLOOD. DESPITE THIS...NOT ENOUGH
EXPECTED TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH AND WILL CANCEL WITH
12Z ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WELL WE WAITED FOREVER FOR THE MVFR TO ARRIVE AND IT SEEMS LIKE IT
WAS ONLY HERE FOR A SHORT TIME AS IT HAS BEEN QUICKLY REPLACED BY
IFR CONDITIONS. DURATION VERY UNCERTAIN AS REGIONAL PLOT OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES INDICATES THIS IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ATL AREA
TERMINALS. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE IN A TEMPO AND SEE HOW MUCH
STAYING POWER THIS IFR HAS THIS MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MODELS INDICATE
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. BEST CHANCES OF GUSTS TODAY WILL BE
AT ATL AND OVER SOUTHERN MOST TERMINALS. EXPECT NO IMPROVEMENT
BEYOND POSSIBLE MVFR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  48  67  50 /  70  30  20   5
ATLANTA         58  49  66  53 /  90  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  48  69  48 / 100  30  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  50  70  52 / 100  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        60  51  69  54 /  30  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  49  66  51 / 100  30  20   5
MACON           59  50  69  52 /  30  20  10   5
ROME            64  51  72  51 / 100  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  66  51 /  60  30  10   5
VIDALIA         61  53  70  54 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191133
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NE FLORIDA WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN COOL NE FLOW
REGIME. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS
UP VERY WELL ON UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH PROMINENT DRY SLOT STREAKING NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL AND MOST OF NE GEORGIA AT THIS HOUR.
RESPONSE ON RADAR HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE WITHING THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. MAIN
ACTIVITY NOW WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN THAT IS MAINLY OVER
THE ALABAMA PORTION WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY WITHIN NORTH GA
PORTION OF AXIS. WILL THEREFORE REDUCE POPS IN INITIALIZED GRIDS
THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTION WITH POPS TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY DEFORMATION
AXIS FILLS BACK IN AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS LONG AS DRY SLOT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH NAM12 INDICATES WILL BE AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE ON POPS.
WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGHER
POPS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE AS AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WELL WE ARE NOW RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOW LEVEL JET EVENT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS BUT SURFACE STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG WITH ONLY LIMITED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSLATION TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS BUT ONLY IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES AND GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED WINDS CURRENTLY AS WELL
AS FORECAST COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY
DIE AT 12Z WITH NO PLANS FOR EXTENSION.

DEESE

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH MAIN ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS ABATED...STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOOD  WITH ISOLATED AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
REMAINING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO FLOOD. DESPITE THIS...NOT ENOUGH
EXPECTED TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH AND WILL CANCEL WITH
12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WELL WE WAITED FOREVER FOR THE MVFR TO ARRIVE AND IT SEEMS LIKE IT
WAS ONLY HERE FOR A SHORT TIME AS IT HAS BEEN QUICKLY REPLACED BY
IFR CONDITIONS. DURATION VERY UNCERTAIN AS REGIONAL PLOT OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES INDICATES THIS IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ATL AREA
TERMINALS. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE IN A TEMPO AND SEE HOW MUCH
STAYING POWER THIS IFR HAS THIS MORNING WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS JUST HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MODELS INDICATE
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. BEST CHANCES OF GUSTS TODAY WILL BE
AT ATL AND OVER SOUTHERN MOST TERMINALS. EXPECT NO IMPROVEMENT
BEYOND POSSIBLE MVFR FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  48  67  50 /  70  30  20   5
ATLANTA         58  49  66  53 /  90  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  48  69  48 / 100  30  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  50  70  52 / 100  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        60  51  69  54 /  30  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  49  66  51 / 100  30  20   5
MACON           59  50  69  52 /  30  20  10   5
ROME            64  51  72  51 / 100  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  66  51 /  60  30  10   5
VIDALIA         61  53  70  54 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NE FLORIDA WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN COOL NE FLOW
REGIME. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS
UP VERY WELL ON UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH PROMINENT DRY SLOT STREAKING NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL AND MOST OF NE GEORGIA AT THIS HOUR.
RESPONSE ON RADAR HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE WITHING THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. MAIN
ACTIVITY NOW WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN THAT IS MAINLY OVER
THE ALABAMA PORTION WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY WITHIN NORTH GA
PORTION OF AXIS. WILL THEREFORE REDUCE POPS IN INITIALIZED GRIDS
THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTION WITH POPS TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY DEFORMATION
AXIS FILLS BACK IN AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS LONG AS DRY SLOT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH NAM12 INDICATES WILL BE AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE ON POPS.
WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGHER
POPS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE AS AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WELL WE ARE NOW RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOW LEVEL JET EVENT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS BUT SURFACE STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG WITH ONLY LIMITED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSLATION TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS BUT ONLY IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES AND GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED WINDS CURRENTLY AS WELL
AS FORECAST COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY
DIE AT 12Z WITH NO PLANS FOR EXTENSION.

DEESE

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH MAIN ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS ABATED...STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOOD  WITH ISOLATED AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
REMAINING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO FLOOD. DESPITE THIS...NOT ENOUGH
EXPECTED TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH AND WILL CANCEL WITH
12Z ISSUANCE.

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS MVFR AND IFR HAS BEEN RIGHT ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE ATL TERMINALS BUT VERY SLOW TO ARRIVE. HAVE
FINALLY SEEN SOME MVFR WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT REAL QUESTION
IS IF IFR MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. CERTAINLY WONT HAVE TO MAKE IT
FAR AS ALREADY HAVE IFR FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR FOR ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT
ONLY GO TEMPO THROUGH 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN ONES. OTHERWISE...PLAN
TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH WINDS
PICKING UP TO INCLUDE 20 O 25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  48  67  50 /  50  30  20   5
ATLANTA         58  49  66  53 /  30  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  48  69  48 /  50  30  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  50  70  52 /  50  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        60  51  69  54 /  30  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  49  66  51 /  50  30  20   5
MACON           59  50  69  52 /  30  20  10   5
ROME            64  51  72  51 /  50  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  66  51 /  30  30  10   5
VIDALIA         61  53  70  54 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190722
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP...I STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AT OR OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH GEORGIA. I HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO MATCH THE ADVISORY AREA TO THE NORTH...12Z.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...MAINLY
MINOR...TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TENDS. STILL EXPECTING MODERATE
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE SLOW TO COME UP BUT I DO STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST VALUES ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH VERY MOIST SOIL AND
TREES THAT ARE WELL INTO THE LEAFING OUT PROCESS...I THINK THAT IT
REMAINS ADVISABLE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES GOING.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
DEPICTING THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEW
WATCH AREA...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN.
CLASSICAL CAD REMAINS IN PLACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING TO A CLOSED OFF LOW. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT AFD TIME...AND IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST
NORTHEAST GENERALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IN FLORIDA IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH /INSTEAD OF EAST-WEST/ SO IS NOT
ACTING TO CUT OFF ANY INFLOW...RATHER...IF ANYTHING...THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. A BIT OF DRY-SLOTTING
LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOWARD
TALLAHASSEE...WITH HEFTY AMOUNTS ACROSS ALABAMA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF
THE DRY-SLOTTING MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA BUT AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALL HIRES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE ON QPF.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE HELD PRETTY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WARMEST AREAS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS AS WELL. SHOULD DEFINITELY
SEE RECORD COLD HIGH AT CSG FOR TODAY AND STILL FLIRTING WITH IT AT
MCN. SO WITH THAT...NOT A HUGE DIURNAL RANGE FOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE THEY STAY NEAR 50 OR LOWER 50S. /WITH THE DEFORMATION
AXIS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT IMAGINE IF IT WERE 15 DEGREES
COLDER...YIKES./ DEFINITELY WARMER ON SATURDAY STILL 10 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS OFF THE
ATLANTIC BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE DAMMING. JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED UPWARDS OF 60KT ACROSS
SOME OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INVERSION TO KEEP THIS JET JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY IS IFFY BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT
OUT THAN NOT.

OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
LITTLE MUCAPE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AT AFD TIME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AS THE LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST MLCAPES NOW RUNNING 400-1000 FROM THE GFS AT 18Z TUESDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH THE FRONT.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA /AMERICUS AND AREAS WEST/ HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AND INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MIGHT BE PERIODS OF
BRIEF REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DRY-SLOTTING REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH THE
DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
ALABAMA /WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES/...EXPECT QPF
TOTALS TO BE PRETTY HEFTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM
TOTAL FROM AFD TIME TILL THE END OF THE EVENT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES /BASIN-AVERAGE/ TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTHEAST
OVER 2.5 INCHES. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT RADARS ARE UNDERESTIMATING BY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT TODAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT BUT ENOUGH TO BE AWARE OF.
WITH THIS PROLONGED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD. IT
MAY GO A LITTLE LONG BUT WE CAN ALWAYS CANCEL EARLY WHEN RAIN MOVES
OUT.

TDP

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS MVFR AND IFR HAS BEEN RIGHT ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE ATL TERMINALS BUT VERY SLOW TO ARRIVE. HAVE
FINALLY SEEN SOME MVFR WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT REAL QUESTION
IS IF IFR MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. CERTAINLY WONT HAVE TO MAKE IT
FAR AS ALREADY HAVE IFR FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR FOR ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT
ONLY GO TEMPO THROUGH 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN ONES. OTHERWISE...PLAN
TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH WINDS
PICKING UP TO INCLUDE 20 O 25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  48  71  50 /  70  20  10   5
ATLANTA         62  49  70  54 /  50  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     62  47  72  48 /  50  10   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    64  50  72  50 /  30  10   5   5
COLUMBUS        63  51  73  55 /  30  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     60  49  70  52 /  60  20   5   5
MACON           61  51  72  51 /  50  20   5   5
ROME            65  49  73  51 /  20  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  62  49  71  50 /  50  10   5   5
VIDALIA         64  54  70  54 /  50  40  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190254 AAD
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP...I STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AT OR OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVES ACROSS
FAR SOUTH GEORGIA. I HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO MATCH THE ADVISORY AREA TO THE NORTH...12Z.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...MAINLY
MINOR...TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TENDS. STILL EXPECTING MODERATE
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE SLOW TO COME UP BUT I DO STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST VALUES ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH VERY MOIST SOIL AND
TREES THAT ARE WELL INTO THE LEAFING OUT PROCESS...I THINK THAT IT
REMAINS ADVISABLE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES GOING.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
DEPICTING THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEW
WATCH AREA...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN.
CLASSICAL CAD REMAINS IN PLACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING TO A CLOSED OFF LOW. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT AFD TIME...AND IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST
NORTHEAST GENERALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IN FLORIDA IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH /INSTEAD OF EAST-WEST/ SO IS NOT
ACTING TO CUT OFF ANY INFLOW...RATHER...IF ANYTHING...THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. A BIT OF DRY-SLOTTING
LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOWARD
TALLAHASSEE...WITH HEFTY AMOUNTS ACROSS ALABAMA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF
THE DRY-SLOTTING MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA BUT AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALL HIRES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE ON QPF.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE HELD PRETTY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WARMEST AREAS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS AS WELL. SHOULD DEFINITELY
SEE RECORD COLD HIGH AT CSG FOR TODAY AND STILL FLIRTING WITH IT AT
MCN. SO WITH THAT...NOT A HUGE DIURNAL RANGE FOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE THEY STAY NEAR 50 OR LOWER 50S. /WITH THE DEFORMATION
AXIS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT IMAGINE IF IT WERE 15 DEGREES
COLDER...YIKES./ DEFINITELY WARMER ON SATURDAY STILL 10 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS OFF THE
ATLANTIC BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE DAMMING. JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED UPWARDS OF 60KT ACROSS
SOME OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INVERSION TO KEEP THIS JET JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY IS IFFY BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT
OUT THAN NOT.

OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
LITTLE MUCAPE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AT AFD TIME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AS THE LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST MLCAPES NOW RUNNING 400-1000 FROM THE GFS AT 18Z TUESDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH THE FRONT.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA /AMERICUS AND AREAS WEST/ HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AND INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MIGHT BE PERIODS OF
BRIEF REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DRY-SLOTTING REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH THE
DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
ALABAMA /WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES/...EXPECT QPF
TOTALS TO BE PRETTY HEFTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM
TOTAL FROM AFD TIME TILL THE END OF THE EVENT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES /BASIN-AVERAGE/ TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTHEAST
OVER 2.5 INCHES. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT RADARS ARE UNDERESTIMATING BY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT TODAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT BUT ENOUGH TO BE AWARE OF.
WITH THIS PROLONGED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD. IT
MAY GO A LITTLE LONG BUT WE CAN ALWAYS CANCEL EARLY WHEN RAIN MOVES
OUT.

TDP

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SOLID AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A
TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. I DO EXPECT MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH ALL SITES IFR BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING 6-14KT
WITH GUSTS 14-24KT...INCREASING TO 10-18KT WITH GUSTS 17-29KT BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH 06Z...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  60  48  71 / 100  70  20  10
ATLANTA         46  62  49  70 / 100  50  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  62  47  72 /  80  50  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  64  50  72 / 100  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        48  63  51  73 / 100  30  10   5
GAINESVILLE     46  60  49  70 / 100  60  20   5
MACON           48  61  51  72 / 100  50  20   5
ROME            48  65  49  73 /  70  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  47  62  49  71 / 100  50  10   5
VIDALIA         52  64  54  70 / 100  50  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...
HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190125 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
925 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...MAINLY
MINOR...TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TENDS. STILL EXPECTING MODERATE
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE SLOW TO COME UP BUT I DO STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST VALUES ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH VERY MOIST SOIL AND
TREES THAT ARE WELL INTO THE LEAFING OUT PROCESS...I THINK THAT IT
REMAINS ADVISABLE TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES GOING.

20


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
DEPICTING THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEW
WATCH AREA...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN.
CLASSICAL CAD REMAINS IN PLACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING TO A CLOSED OFF LOW. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT AFD TIME...AND IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST
NORTHEAST GENERALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IN FLORIDA IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH /INSTEAD OF EAST-WEST/ SO IS NOT
ACTING TO CUT OFF ANY INFLOW...RATHER...IF ANYTHING...THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. A BIT OF DRY-SLOTTING
LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOWARD
TALLAHASSEE...WITH HEFTY AMOUNTS ACROSS ALABAMA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF
THE DRY-SLOTTING MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA BUT AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALL HIRES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE ON QPF.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE HELD PRETTY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WARMEST AREAS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS AS WELL. SHOULD DEFINITELY
SEE RECORD COLD HIGH AT CSG FOR TODAY AND STILL FLIRTING WITH IT AT
MCN. SO WITH THAT...NOT A HUGE DIURNAL RANGE FOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE THEY STAY NEAR 50 OR LOWER 50S. /WITH THE DEFORMATION
AXIS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT IMAGINE IF IT WERE 15 DEGREES
COLDER...YIKES./ DEFINITELY WARMER ON SATURDAY STILL 10 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS OFF THE
ATLANTIC BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE DAMMING. JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED UPWARDS OF 60KT ACROSS
SOME OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INVERSION TO KEEP THIS JET JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY IS IFFY BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT
OUT THAN NOT.

OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
LITTLE MUCAPE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AT AFD TIME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AS THE LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST MLCAPES NOW RUNNING 400-1000 FROM THE GFS AT 18Z TUESDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH THE FRONT.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA /AMERICUS AND AREAS WEST/ HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AND INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MIGHT BE PERIODS OF
BRIEF REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DRY-SLOTTING REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH THE
DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
ALABAMA /WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES/...EXPECT QPF
TOTALS TO BE PRETTY HEFTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM
TOTAL FROM AFD TIME TILL THE END OF THE EVENT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES /BASIN-AVERAGE/ TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTHEAST
OVER 2.5 INCHES. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT RADARS ARE UNDERESTIMATING BY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT TODAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT BUT ENOUGH TO BE AWARE OF.
WITH THIS PROLONGED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD. IT
MAY GO A LITTLE LONG BUT WE CAN ALWAYS CANCEL EARLY WHEN RAIN MOVES
OUT.

TDP

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SOLID AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A
TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. I DO EXPECT MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH ALL SITES IFR BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING 6-14KT
WITH GUSTS 14-24KT...INCREASING TO 10-18KT WITH GUSTS 17-29KT BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH 06Z...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          45  60  48  71 / 100  70  20  10
ATLANTA         46  62  49  70 / 100  50  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  62  47  72 /  80  50  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  64  50  72 / 100  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        48  63  51  73 / 100  30  10   5
GAINESVILLE     46  60  49  70 / 100  60  20   5
MACON           48  61  51  72 / 100  50  20   5
ROME            48  65  49  73 /  70  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  47  62  49  71 / 100  50  10   5
VIDALIA         52  64  54  70 / 100  50  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 182345 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
DEPICTING THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEW
WATCH AREA...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN.
CLASSICAL CAD REMAINS IN PLACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING TO A CLOSED OFF LOW. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT AFD TIME...AND IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST
NORTHEAST GENERALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IN FLORIDA IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH /INSTEAD OF EAST-WEST/ SO IS NOT
ACTING TO CUT OFF ANY INFLOW...RATHER...IF ANYTHING...THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. A BIT OF DRY-SLOTTING
LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOWARD
TALLAHASSEE...WITH HEFTY AMOUNTS ACROSS ALABAMA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF
THE DRY-SLOTTING MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA BUT AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALL HIRES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE ON QPF.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE HELD PRETTY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WARMEST AREAS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS AS WELL. SHOULD DEFINITELY
SEE RECORD COLD HIGH AT CSG FOR TODAY AND STILL FLIRTING WITH IT AT
MCN. SO WITH THAT...NOT A HUGE DIURNAL RANGE FOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE THEY STAY NEAR 50 OR LOWER 50S. /WITH THE DEFORMATION
AXIS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT IMAGINE IF IT WERE 15 DEGREES
COLDER...YIKES./ DEFINITELY WARMER ON SATURDAY STILL 10 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS OFF THE
ATLANTIC BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE DAMMING. JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED UPWARDS OF 60KT ACROSS
SOME OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INVERSION TO KEEP THIS JET JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY IS IFFY BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT
OUT THAN NOT.

OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
LITTLE MUCAPE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AT AFD TIME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AS THE LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST MLCAPES NOW RUNNING 400-1000 FROM THE GFS AT 18Z TUESDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH THE FRONT.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA /AMERICUS AND AREAS WEST/ HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AND INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MIGHT BE PERIODS OF
BRIEF REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DRY-SLOTTING REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH THE
DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
ALABAMA /WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES/...EXPECT QPF
TOTALS TO BE PRETTY HEFTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM
TOTAL FROM AFD TIME TILL THE END OF THE EVENT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES /BASIN-AVERAGE/ TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTHEAST
OVER 2.5 INCHES. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT RADARS ARE UNDERESTIMATING BY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT TODAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT BUT ENOUGH TO BE AWARE OF.
WITH THIS PROLONGED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD. IT
MAY GO A LITTLE LONG BUT WE CAN ALWAYS CANCEL EARLY WHEN RAIN MOVES
OUT.

TDP

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SOLID AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A
TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. I DO EXPECT MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH ALL SITES IFR BY 06Z. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING 6-14KT
WITH GUSTS 14-24KT...INCREASING TO 10-18KT WITH GUSTS 17-29KT BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH 06Z...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  60  48  71 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         47  62  49  70 / 100  60  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  62  47  72 /  80  60  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  64  50  72 / 100  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        49  63  51  73 / 100  40  10   5
GAINESVILLE     47  60  49  70 / 100  70  20   5
MACON           50  61  51  72 / 100  50  20   5
ROME            48  65  49  73 /  60  30  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  62  49  71 / 100  50  10   5
VIDALIA         54  64  54  70 / 100  60  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20










000
FXUS62 KFFC 182131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST
OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ROUGHLY NORTHWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS
DEPICTING THE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES IN THE NEW
WATCH AREA...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN.
CLASSICAL CAD REMAINS IN PLACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING TO A CLOSED OFF LOW. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT AFD TIME...AND IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST
NORTHEAST GENERALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IN FLORIDA IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH /INSTEAD OF EAST-WEST/ SO IS NOT
ACTING TO CUT OFF ANY INFLOW...RATHER...IF ANYTHING...THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. A BIT OF DRY-SLOTTING
LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOWARD
TALLAHASSEE...WITH HEFTY AMOUNTS ACROSS ALABAMA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF
THE DRY-SLOTTING MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA BUT AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALL HIRES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE ON QPF.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE HELD PRETTY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WARMEST AREAS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS AS WELL. SHOULD DEFINITELY
SEE RECORD COLD HIGH AT CSG FOR TODAY AND STILL FLIRTING WITH IT AT
MCN. SO WITH THAT...NOT A HUGE DIURNAL RANGE FOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE THEY STAY NEAR 50 OR LOWER 50S. /WITH THE DEFORMATION
AXIS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT IMAGINE IF IT WERE 15 DEGREES
COLDER...YIKES./ DEFINITELY WARMER ON SATURDAY STILL 10 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS OFF THE
ATLANTIC BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE DAMMING. JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED UPWARDS OF 60KT ACROSS
SOME OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INVERSION TO KEEP THIS JET JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY IS IFFY BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT
OUT THAN NOT.

OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
LITTLE MUCAPE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AT AFD TIME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AS THE LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST MLCAPES NOW RUNNING 400-1000 FROM THE GFS AT 18Z TUESDAY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH THE FRONT.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA /AMERICUS AND AREAS WEST/ HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AND INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MIGHT BE PERIODS OF
BRIEF REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DRY-SLOTTING REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH THE
DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
ALABAMA /WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES/...EXPECT QPF
TOTALS TO BE PRETTY HEFTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM
TOTAL FROM AFD TIME TILL THE END OF THE EVENT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES /BASIN-AVERAGE/ TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTHEAST
OVER 2.5 INCHES. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT RADARS ARE UNDERESTIMATING BY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT TODAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT BUT ENOUGH TO BE AWARE OF.
WITH THIS PROLONGED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD. IT
MAY GO A LITTLE LONG BUT WE CAN ALWAYS CANCEL EARLY WHEN RAIN MOVES
OUT.

TDP

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR ALREADY MOVED IN SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH WITH EVERYONE MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
IFR AND SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY WIDESPREAD AS WELL. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AS SHRA MOVES OUT BUT STAYING MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TO ENE WINDS GENERALLY 12-18KT
WITH GUSTS 10KT ABOVE THAT...AND AS IS TYPICAL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF EVENTS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  60  48  71 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         47  62  49  70 / 100  60  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  62  47  72 /  80  60  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  64  50  72 / 100  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        49  63  51  73 / 100  40  10   5
GAINESVILLE     47  60  49  70 / 100  70  20   5
MACON           50  61  51  72 / 100  50  20   5
ROME            48  65  49  73 /  60  30  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  62  49  71 / 100  50  10   5
VIDALIA         54  64  54  70 / 100  60  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...
FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...
HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...
MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181900
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OF COURSE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE RAIN.
CLASSICAL CAD REMAINS IN PLACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ERODING AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING TO A CLOSED OFF LOW. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT AFD TIME...AND IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST
NORTHEAST GENERALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER. WIDESPREAD
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IN FLORIDA IS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH /INSTEAD OF EAST-WEST/ SO IS NOT
ACTING TO CUT OFF ANY INFLOW...RATHER...IF ANYTHING...THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. A BIT OF DRY-SLOTTING
LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TOWARD
TALLAHASSEE...WITH HEFTY AMOUNTS ACROSS ALABAMA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OF
THE DRY-SLOTTING MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA BUT AS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALL HIRES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE ON QPF.

WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE HELD PRETTY
STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH WARMEST AREAS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THINNER AND NOT QUITE AS MUCH
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET DUE TO THE DRY DEWPOINTS.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO THIS AS WELL. SHOULD DEFINITELY
SEE RECORD COLD HIGH AT CSG FOR TODAY AND STILL FLIRTING WITH IT AT
MCN. SO WITH THAT...NOT A HUGE DIURNAL RANGE FOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD
STILL GET INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE THEY STAY NEAR 50 OR LOWER 50S. /WITH THE DEFORMATION
AXIS SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT IMAGINE IF IT WERE 15 DEGREES
COLDER...YIKES./ DEFINITELY WARMER ON SATURDAY STILL 10 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS OFF THE
ATLANTIC BRINGING ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

STRONG SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE DAMMING. JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...925MB WINDS ARE PROGGED UPWARDS OF 60KT ACROSS
SOME OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INVERSION TO KEEP THIS JET JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE GRADIENT
TO WARRANT KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. NORTHERN EXTENT OF ADVISORY IS IFFY BUT BETTER TO HAVE IT
OUT THAN NOT.

OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. JUST A
LITTLE MUCAPE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES AT AFD TIME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER ON
SATURDAY AS THE LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS...SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST MLCAPES NOW RUNNING 400-1000 FROM THE GFS AT 18Z TUESDAY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITH THE FRONT.
BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA /AMERICUS AND AREAS WEST/ HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AND INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MIGHT BE PERIODS OF
BRIEF REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THAT SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE
DRY-SLOTTING REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH THE
DEFORMATION AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN IN
ALABAMA /WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES/...EXPECT QPF
TOTALS TO BE PRETTY HEFTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NEW STORM
TOTAL FROM AFD TIME TILL THE END OF THE EVENT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL 2
INCHES /BASIN-AVERAGE/ TO SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME AREAS SOUTHEAST
OVER 2.5 INCHES. OTHER CONCERN IS THAT RADARS ARE UNDERESTIMATING BY
ABOUT 15 PERCENT TODAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT BUT ENOUGH TO BE AWARE OF.
WITH THIS PROLONGED...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD. IT
MAY GO A LITTLE LONG BUT WE CAN ALWAYS CANCEL EARLY WHEN RAIN MOVES
OUT.

TDP


CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR ALREADY MOVED IN SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH WITH EVERYONE MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
IFR AND SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY WIDESPREAD AS WELL. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AS SHRA MOVES OUT BUT STAYING MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TO ENE WINDS GENERALLY 12-18KT
WITH GUSTS 10KT ABOVE THAT...AND AS IS TYPICAL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF EVENTS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  60  48  71 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         47  62  49  70 / 100  60  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  62  47  72 /  80  60  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  64  50  72 / 100  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        49  63  51  73 / 100  40  10   5
GAINESVILLE     47  60  49  70 / 100  70  20   5
MACON           50  61  51  72 / 100  50  20   5
ROME            48  65  49  73 /  60  30  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  48  62  49  71 / 100  50  10   5
VIDALIA         54  64  54  70 / 100  60  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181738 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR ALREADY MOVED IN SOUTH...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH WITH EVERYONE MVFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
IFR AND SHRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY WIDESPREAD AS WELL. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AS SHRA MOVES OUT BUT STAYING MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. E TO ENE WINDS GENERALLY 12-18KT
WITH GUSTS 10KT ABOVE THAT...AND AS IS TYPICAL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF EVENTS.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  80  20
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 / 100 100  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  80  80  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  90 100  50  20
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 / 100 100  70  20
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100 100  50  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  60  60  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100 100  50  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100 100  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181600 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1200 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. SO FAR...TEMPS
ARE DOING OKAY AND SO NO UPDATE THERE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR RAIN STILL NOT QUITE REACHING THE
GROUND UP THERE BUT THE COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE SHORTLY. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH UP THERE OVERALL. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  60  10
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 / 100 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  70  70  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  80  80  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100 100  30  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 / 100 100  60  10
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100 100  30  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  70  70  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100 100  30  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100 100  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181136
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01

HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST NOW IMPACTING CSG AND MCN TERMINALS FOLLOWED SOON BY ATL
AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR OVER
THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN SHIELD AND
LIFTING NORTH. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE AND KEEP
IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...COULD
SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. WITHING HEAVIER
SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER AND WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  60  10
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 /  90  80  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  70  80  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  70  70  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100  70  30  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 /  80  80  60  10
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100  90  30  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  60  70  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100  80  30  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100  90  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 180806
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...RAINY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK AND KICK OFF THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US SHOWS STRONG LATE
SEASON HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD WITH WEDGING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. ALONG THE
GULF COAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA. SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETUP WITH
RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN SHIELD INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT
THIS HOUR. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT TO DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. THUNDER
CONTINUES TO BE PREVALENT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA BUT DECREASES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
AND NO PLANS FOR IMMEDIATE INCLUSION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AS GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK OF LOW WHILE THE EURO IS
FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON TRENDS SEEN THIS MORNING AND RECENT TRACK
RECORD IN THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...ACTUALLY PREFER A MORE NORTHERN
TRANSLATION OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
BACKING FROM LOCAL WRF AND HRRR SOLUTIONS AS WELL AND WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY. AS FAR A
AMOUNTS...I DO INCREASE THESE AS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT CERTAINLY
WILL SEE SOME CUTOFF OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM GULF CONVECTION SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD.

AS FAR AS LOCAL THUNDER POTENTIAL...SREF NOW INDICATING SOME
MUCAPE EASING INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
BY THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIER. GIVEN LIGHTNING IS
ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS
PORTION OF FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AND PROBLEMATIC IN FORECASTING
GIVEN HIGH ADVERTISED VALUES AND PLACEMENT OF WEDGE. BY THIS
EVENING...NAM12 ACTUALLY INDICATES 52 KNOTS AT 925MB OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHICH IS DISTURBING BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE GIVEN WEDGE AND INVERSION IN PLACE.
MODELS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT
SUSTAINED OVER SOUTHERN TIER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NORTH GA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WILL THEREFORE HOIST
A SEGMENTED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL GO
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUN
WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUN MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES ARE INCREASING MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU.

01


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL LEANING TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
MORE LOCAL FLAVOR ADDED THEREAFTER AS I KEEP POPS IN A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL TOTALS TO IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...2 INCH CONTOUR IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD AND WILL ADJUST
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH IN TIME GIVEN SLOWER RETREAT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND
WILL IMPACT CSG TERMINAL FIRST FOLLOWED BY MCN AND THEN THE
ATL AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN
SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE
AND KEEP IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
WITHING HEAVIER SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  46  62  51 / 100 100  60  10
ATLANTA         56  47  62  53 /  90  80  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  45  63  50 /  70  80  60  10
CARTERSVILLE    59  47  65  53 /  70  70  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  49  65  56 / 100  70  30  10
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  51 /  80  80  60  10
MACON           55  50  64  53 / 100  90  30  20
ROME            61  47  67  54 /  60  70  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  56  47  63  52 / 100  80  30  10
VIDALIA         61  55  67  58 / 100  90  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...
PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...
TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...
WALTON...WHITE...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 180656
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH QPF AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR
OVERRUNNING GULF MOISTURE AGAINST A STRONG CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FROM
A PARENT 1040+MB SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS
ARE AT LEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS CLOSING OFF A
LOW AND ENHANCING THE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DECENT DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FARTHER NORTH AND QUITE ROBUST ON
QPF...WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH AND DRIER...WITH THE
ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE ON QPF AND INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.

FOR POPS AND WEATHER...HAVE TRENDED ONSET OF LIKELY POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA SOONER THAN GUIDANCE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TYPICALLY
ALLOWS FOR PRECIP BEFORE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE RAMPED UP AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO DEFINITE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL DURING
DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH LIKELY TO CHANCE INTO NORTH GA. WEDGE SHOULD
KEEP ENVIRONMENT STABLE SO LEFT OUT THUNDER MENTION. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR MEDIUM AS SOME MODELS
ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY BE INCREASED IN
PARTS OF NORTH GA WITH ANY BANDING THAT OCCURS IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THE LOW AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED
LIKELY AND CHANCE POPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO THE
START OF THE LONG TERM.

FOR TEMPS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF WEDGE AND
MOISTURE OVERRUN. HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM MOS AND TRENDED COOLER
THOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS RAW GFS. LOOKING AT MANY AREAS STAYING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS...AND NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR
COLUMBUS AND MACON /POSSIBLY ATHENS/.

BAKER

HYDROLOGY...
HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FROM THE VAST
SPECTRUM OF OTHER MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS 2 TO 2.5 INCHES
PROGGED IN A 24-HR PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA AND IS CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF AND SREF...WHILE THE GFS IS ROBUST WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN
THE SW...AND THE NAM IS ANOMALOUSLY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH A FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON THESE RAISED UPDATED AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A HAMILTON TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. ONE COULD ARGUE
THE BETTER THREAT IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
BROUGHT AMOUNTS TO 100-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL 7 DAY
STREAM FLOWS...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH WEIGHED INTO THE CURRENT WATCH EXTENT. THIS WILL BE IN
AFFECT FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
REGION SAT AND EVEN EARLY SUN. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON H5/SFC
HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS THOUGH LESS AGREEMENT WITH QPF. UPPER LOW
FCST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GA 12Z SAT WITH 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MEDIAN OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND 12Z ECMWF FURTHEST SOUTH. BY 12Z SUN
UPPER LOW PROGGED ONLY TO MOVE 500NM OFF GA COAST. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER LATE SAT AND EVEN THRU EARLY SUN IN ERN COUNTIES. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THRU SAT AS WELL. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND LOW THICKNESS VALUES...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
SATURDAY WITH A QUICK REBOUND NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKING INTERESTING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WNWLY
FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO AFFECT AREA ON TUES. UNUSUAL TO SEE THIS
KIND OF PATTERN IN LATE APRIL. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND STRONGER
LIFT...MIGHT SEE A LINE OF STORMS OR MCS. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...MLCAPE
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY APRIL 18...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1942     54 1902     64 1969     32 1936
                1927
   KATL      87 2002     50 1983     69 1927     33 1997
                1937
                1896
   KCSG      91 2002     62 1983     69 2006     37 1962
                                                    1956
   KMCN      90 1967     55 1921     66 1922     33 2001
                1955

RECORDS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19...

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1917     51 1984     64 1927     30 1983
   KATL      88 1941     50 1983     66 1927     30 1983
   KCSG      91 2002     59 1983     68 1995     33 1983
                            1953
   KMCN      91 2002     59 1910     66 1927     31 1983
                1976
                1968


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AND
WILL IMPACT CSG TERMINAL FIRST FOLLOWED BY MCN AND THEN THE
ATL AREA TERMINALS. CIGS FOLLOWING SUIT THUS FAR WITH MAINLY VFR
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BUT MVFR QUICKLY DEVELOPING WITHIN RAIN
SHIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO MVFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVERTISING A LATER CLEARING TREND THAN MODELS INDICATE
AND KEEP IFR THROUGHOUT ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. AS FAR AS WINDS...BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME HIGH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
WITHING HEAVIER SHRA...THESE VALUES COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR TIMING AND WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  46  62  46 /  60  70  30   5
ATLANTA         55  47  62  49 /  60  60  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  44  65  45 /  40  60  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  48  66  46 /  50  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        56  49  65  50 / 100  70  30   5
GAINESVILLE     54  47  61  47 /  60  60  30   5
MACON           55  48  63  46 / 100  80  40  10
ROME            60  47  68  47 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  46  63  45 /  70  60  30   5
VIDALIA         59  53  67  52 /  90  80  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







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