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000
FXUS62 KFFC 231530 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 231530 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND THUS MAINLY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE ONLY SEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF AND ARE ALREADY SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO FORSYTH TO
WARRENTON. HAVE CUT BACK THE MENTION ON SEVERE IN THE GRIDS NORTH
OF THIS LINE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAKING IT NORTH OF THAT LINE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE TO THE
SOUTH.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. BESIDES ADJUSTING THE AREA FOR SEVERE
WORDING IN THE GRIDS...HAVE ALSO SLOWED THE WARMING TREND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 231133 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. EMBEDDED...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 8-12KT WILL INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 17-22KT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230848
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230848
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY COVERING THE FORECAST
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING AND FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION
OF EVEN MODERATE DEPTH WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE. VWP DATA FROM
REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOWING STRONGER WINDS HAVE YET TO LOWER BELOW
ABOUT 10-15KFT AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODERATE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LATER TODAY AS WELL.
BETTER FORCING LATER TODAY AS THE STRONGER WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEST. NORTHERN RANGE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN
LIFT. CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE EXPECTED EXTENT WELL.
MAY BE A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD SPREAD IN ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE DEEPENING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER EAST CENTRAL ZONES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES...AND WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTH GA
BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE ACTUALLY GETS. HAVE
LEFT ANY POPS OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.

41


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  52  68  40 / 100  80  20  10
ATLANTA         60  54  66  41 / 100  60  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  49  61  34 / 100  80  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  52  65  36 / 100  50  20  10
COLUMBUS        66  59  72  42 / 100  50  20  10
GAINESVILLE     57  52  64  40 / 100  80  20  10
MACON           66  60  73  43 / 100  70  20  10
ROME            59  52  63  36 / 100  50  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  61  54  67  38 / 100  50  20  10
VIDALIA         71  64  74  49 / 100  80  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230535 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230535 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR LOWER BY 08Z AND IFR OR LOWER
BY 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z WITH MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE AFTER 10Z.
EMBEDDED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. EAST WINDS 6-10KT WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-22KT AFTER 12Z...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230341
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. HOURLY EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO POP
AND WX GRIDS. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 230020
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 230020
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.

11

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17

HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALREADY ACROSS CSG AND MCN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEGRADE AS THE RAIN AND MOISTURE
PUSHES NORTHWARD...AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE IFR BY
06-08Z. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. TS POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS MCN AND CSG
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE ATL AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS WILL BE 08-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SE
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HIGH FOR WIND.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.


11


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING
CLOSELY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED
THE TIMING UP SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS
SHIFTING EAST BUT STILL RIDGING IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL SEE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INITIALLY BUT THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
BASICALLY A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. FINALLY THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN PUSHING SOME OF THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. MUCAPE
VALUES REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH IS PRETTY DECENT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GFS SHOWS 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME VALUES EXCEEDING 50KTS.
THE NAM MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO IF THE NAM OR GFS
VALUES ARE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AS THEY HAVE DECENT SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-
300J/KG BUT LESS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. LOOKING AT THE LOCAL
WRF...IT IMPLIES WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE...THEN
POTENTIALLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...THEN MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH.

BESIDES SEVERE...HYDROLOGY IS THE OTHER ASPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. SEE
THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN. WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS GA. FOR SUNDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. MET IS MUCH COLDER AND KEEPS AREA CLOUDY
WHILE THE MAV IS WARMER AND TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THINK IT
WOULD BE LIMITED SO STAYED IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.


11


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY LEAVING A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT DRY AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ENDING THE PRECIP. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP KICK THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS
WELL AS GENERATE ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXIT THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR
SPREADS OVER THE CWA. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM.

17


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WITH AROUND 2-2.5 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GROUND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH PRECIP. EVEN SO WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BUT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME
GUIDANCE POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING
CLOSELY. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED
THE TIMING UP SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  55  53  68 /  90 100  70  20
ATLANTA         46  57  54  66 /  90 100  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     40  54  47  61 /  70 100  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    44  57  51  64 /  80 100  50  10
COLUMBUS        52  65  59  70 / 100 100  40  10
GAINESVILLE     44  54  49  64 /  90 100  60  10
MACON           53  66  61  73 / 100 100  60  20
ROME            44  58  53  63 /  80 100  50  10
PEACHTREE CITY  47  58  54  67 / 100 100  40  10
VIDALIA         56  71  65  75 / 100 100  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221755 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT
OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221755 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT
OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME GUIDANCE
POINTS AT 400FT SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY MORNING CLOSELY. RAIN
WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE SLOW
SIDE...PARTICULARLY AT THE ATL SITES AND AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221453 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221453 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
953 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADJUST THE CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS
NORTH GEORGIA SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE
WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221131 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221131 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES
BETWEEN BY 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD NORTH AFTER 00Z...REACHING
THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BY 02/03Z AND THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES
BY 04/05Z AND INTO THE KAHN AREA BY 05-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED...EMBEDDED SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS AND EVENTUALLY 8-12KT
AFTER 06Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT ONLY MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF
LOWERING CEILINGS AT THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPLUSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...REACHING THE KCSG
AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 02Z AND INTO THE
KAHN AREA BY 02-04Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED...EMBEDDED
SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAKER
IMPLUSES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST KEEPS NORTH GEORGIA
SOMEWHAT STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BEST QPF TOTALS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

20


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL GA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...MOISTURE BEGINS WORKING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFERING WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SO HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
GA INTO WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD TAKE PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTH GA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING END OF THIS WAVE
ONLY BRUSHES NORTH GA SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...REACHING THE KCSG
AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 02Z AND INTO THE
KAHN AREA BY 02-04Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED...EMBEDDED
SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  44  58  54 /   5  90 100  70
ATLANTA         57  46  59  55 /   5  90 100  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  55  49 /   0  70  90  60
CARTERSVILLE    56  45  57  53 /   0  80  90  40
COLUMBUS        63  54  66  60 /  20  90 100  40
GAINESVILLE     54  44  53  50 /   0  90 100  60
MACON           63  54  66  60 /  20 100 100  50
ROME            57  44  59  53 /   0  80  90  40
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  61  55 /   5  90 100  40
VIDALIA         66  56  69  64 /  20  90  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220539 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...REACHING THE KCSG
AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 02Z AND INTO THE
KAHN AREA BY 02-04Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED...EMBEDDED
SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220539 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...REACHING THE KCSG
AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 02Z AND INTO THE
KAHN AREA BY 02-04Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED...EMBEDDED
SHOWERS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS
THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASING TO 6-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS REACHING THE AIRFIELD.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220332
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FEW-SCT MVFR GENERALLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH BKN-OVC MVFR AT CSG AND MCN BY
15-16Z...AND INTO THE ATL AREA BY 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10KTS
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220332
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FEW-SCT MVFR GENERALLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH BKN-OVC MVFR AT CSG AND MCN BY
15-16Z...AND INTO THE ATL AREA BY 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10KTS
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 212340
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FEW-SCT MVFR GENERALLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH BKN-OVC MVFR AT CSG AND MCN BY
15-16Z...AND INTO THE ATL AREA BY 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10KTS
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212340
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FEW-SCT MVFR GENERALLY
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE WITH BKN-OVC MVFR AT CSG AND MCN BY
15-16Z...AND INTO THE ATL AREA BY 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY WITH NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10KTS
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO CSG/MCN BY 10-12Z...AND INTO ATL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10
KTS SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
242 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ALL FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE PRECIP BUT
THESE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CWA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN RIDGES INTO THE CWA
BRINGING AN EAST FLOW. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL GA AND THEN STALL. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE SATURDAY IT WILL OVERRUN THE COLD DOME OF AIR
ALREADY IN PLACE WHICH WILLS STRENGTHEN THE INSITU-WEDGE. THE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS AL AND EXTREME
WESTERN GA LATE SUNDAY BUT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE FALL LINE ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES... WITH A COOL EAST FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY THAN TODAY THE PROBLEM COMES WITH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MARK THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT LIFTS WILL ALSO DEPEND
ON MAX TEMPS. AT THIS TIME TEMPS ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S LATE SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

PRECIPITATION...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HELICITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE
WILL MAINTAIN A FEW STORMS SEVERE IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL. SHOWALTER INDEX
INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE COLD
DOME...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NORTH GA.

HEAVY RAIN...MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SHOWING CENTRAL
GEORGIA HAVING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL WITH
DIMINISHING AMOUNTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

17


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN /AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA/ WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES ACROSS THE CWA
AND OVERNIGHT IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE. SYSTEM JUST DOES NOT WANT
TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA SO RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES AS
WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE IMPACTS SUGGESTED BY EACH
MODEL ARE DIFFERENT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTH
GEORGIA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA
AND LINGERS PRECIP INTO THURSDAY. STILL A BIT OF A WAYS OUT AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS FOR NOW BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES...THIS WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO CSG/MCN BY 10-12Z...AND INTO ATL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10
KTS SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  56  44  56 /   0   5  90 100
ATLANTA         37  56  46  58 /   0   5 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     29  54  39  52 /   0   5  90 100
CARTERSVILLE    32  58  43  57 /   0   5  90 100
COLUMBUS        39  62  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
GAINESVILLE     35  56  43  53 /   0   5  90 100
MACON           37  61  52  67 /   0   5 100 100
ROME            31  59  43  59 /   0   5  90 100
PEACHTREE CITY  35  57  46  61 /   0   5 100 100
VIDALIA         39  63  55  71 /   0   5 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED PEACHTREE CITY GA 625 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO EASTERLY. BY SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASING OVER-RUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER RUNNING OVERTOP
OF THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. CENTER
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LOCATED JUST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLEAR WEDGE PATTERN NOTED IN THE
ISOBARS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COMMENCE STARTING IN THE SOUTH AS
EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND SPREAD NORTH AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REDUCE TO LESS THAN 10MB...WHICH
SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG GIVEN THE 30 TO 40 KT UPGLIDE ACROSS A 100MB
SPREAD AT BOTH THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES FROM SOUTH GA TO NORTH
GA. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH THE WEDGE WILL ERODE IN
THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO ADVANCE NORTH. LATEST
SPC DAY 3 GUIDANCE SHOWING A MARGINAL THREAT I.E 5 PCT AREA SUNDAY
AS FAR NORTH AS I20 AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A CSG TO MCN LINE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ALONG WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN NORTH GA
HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NON
EXISTENT AT THE SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTH GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WHERE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT RISK
REGION...0-1 HELICITY VALUES RUNNING 200-300M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR
RUNNING AOA 50 KTS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MENTION A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NOT IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO THINK HAIL AS A SEVERE RISK HOWEVER. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE.
OBVIOUSLY THE FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHER THE RISK AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ONE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE GFS
INSISTENCE THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL FIRE THUS CUTTING
OFF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET A SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. BUT FOR NORTH
GA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE WARM SECTOR AS THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT AND WHETHER THE COASTAL CONVECTION
SHAPES UP. APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 11 AM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE WEDGE COULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A THREAT
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

MONDAY...TUESDAY... SURFACE FEATURE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT WHILE WE AWAIT ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL CLEAR THE REGION OUT BY WED. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WED THUS KEEPING GENERAL SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN TROF
CLEARING THE REGION ON WED WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL...BUT NICE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON THU.

THURSDAY...FRIDAY.. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FOR NICE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. ECMWF A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROF OVER THE EAST AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. GFS NOT SO
BOLD SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. FOR NOW LEFT ANY MENTIONS OUT.

STELLY


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO CSG/MCN BY 10-12Z...AND INTO ATL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10
KTS SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  34  54  43 /   0   0   5  90
ATLANTA         60  38  56  46 /   0   0   5 100
BLAIRSVILLE     56  30  55  39 /   0   0   5  90
CARTERSVILLE    57  34  57  44 /   0   0   5  90
COLUMBUS        63  40  62  52 /   0   0   5 100
GAINESVILLE     58  35  52  43 /   0   0   5  90
MACON           64  36  63  51 /   0   0   5 100
ROME            58  34  59  45 /   0   0   5  90
PEACHTREE CITY  60  34  56  47 /   0   0   5 100
VIDALIA         64  41  65  55 /   0   0   5 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED PEACHTREE CITY GA 625 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO EASTERLY. BY SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASING OVER-RUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER RUNNING OVERTOP
OF THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. CENTER
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LOCATED JUST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLEAR WEDGE PATTERN NOTED IN THE
ISOBARS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COMMENCE STARTING IN THE SOUTH AS
EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND SPREAD NORTH AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REDUCE TO LESS THAN 10MB...WHICH
SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG GIVEN THE 30 TO 40 KT UPGLIDE ACROSS A 100MB
SPREAD AT BOTH THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES FROM SOUTH GA TO NORTH
GA. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH THE WEDGE WILL ERODE IN
THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO ADVANCE NORTH. LATEST
SPC DAY 3 GUIDANCE SHOWING A MARGINAL THREAT I.E 5 PCT AREA SUNDAY
AS FAR NORTH AS I20 AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A CSG TO MCN LINE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ALONG WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN NORTH GA
HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NON
EXISTENT AT THE SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTH GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WHERE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT RISK
REGION...0-1 HELICITY VALUES RUNNING 200-300M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR
RUNNING AOA 50 KTS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MENTION A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NOT IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO THINK HAIL AS A SEVERE RISK HOWEVER. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE.
OBVIOUSLY THE FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHER THE RISK AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ONE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE GFS
INSISTENCE THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL FIRE THUS CUTTING
OFF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET A SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. BUT FOR NORTH
GA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE WARM SECTOR AS THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT AND WHETHER THE COASTAL CONVECTION
SHAPES UP. APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 11 AM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE WEDGE COULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A THREAT
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

MONDAY...TUESDAY... SURFACE FEATURE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT WHILE WE AWAIT ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL CLEAR THE REGION OUT BY WED. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WED THUS KEEPING GENERAL SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN TROF
CLEARING THE REGION ON WED WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL...BUT NICE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON THU.

THURSDAY...FRIDAY.. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FOR NICE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. ECMWF A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROF OVER THE EAST AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. GFS NOT SO
BOLD SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. FOR NOW LEFT ANY MENTIONS OUT.

STELLY


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR CIGS INTO CSG/MCN BY 10-12Z...AND INTO ATL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10
KTS SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  34  54  43 /   0   0   5  90
ATLANTA         60  38  56  46 /   0   0   5 100
BLAIRSVILLE     56  30  55  39 /   0   0   5  90
CARTERSVILLE    57  34  57  44 /   0   0   5  90
COLUMBUS        63  40  62  52 /   0   0   5 100
GAINESVILLE     58  35  52  43 /   0   0   5  90
MACON           64  36  63  51 /   0   0   5 100
ROME            58  34  59  45 /   0   0   5  90
PEACHTREE CITY  60  34  56  47 /   0   0   5 100
VIDALIA         64  41  65  55 /   0   0   5 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211136 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PEACHTREE CITY GA 625 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO EASTERLY. BY SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASING OVER-RUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

20


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER RUNNING OVERTOP
OF THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. CENTER
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LOCATED JUST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLEAR WEDGE PATTERN NOTED IN THE
ISOBARS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COMMENCE STARTING IN THE SOUTH AS
EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND SPREAD NORTH AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REDUCE TO LESS THAN 10MB...WHICH
SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG GIVEN THE 30 TO 40 KT UPGLIDE ACROSS A 100MB
SPREAD AT BOTH THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES FROM SOUTH GA TO NORTH
GA. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH THE WEDGE WILL ERODE IN
THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO ADVANCE NORTH. LATEST
SPC DAY 3 GUIDANCE SHOWING A MARGINAL THREAT I.E 5 PCT AREA SUNDAY
AS FAR NORTH AS I20 AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A CSG TO MCN LINE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ALONG WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN NORTH GA
HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NON
EXISTENT AT THE SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTH GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WHERE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT RISK
REGION...0-1 HELICITY VALUES RUNNING 200-300M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR
RUNNING AOA 50 KTS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MENTION A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NOT IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO THINK HAIL AS A SEVERE RISK HOWEVER. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE.
OBVIOUSLY THE FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHER THE RISK AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ONE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE GFS
INSISTENCE THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL FIRE THUS CUTTING
OFF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET A SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. BUT FOR NORTH
GA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE WARM SECTOR AS THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT AND WHETHER THE COASTAL CONVECTION
SHAPES UP. APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 11 AM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE WEDGE COULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A THREAT
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

MONDAY...TUESDAY... SURFACE FEATURE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT WHILE WE AWAIT ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL CLEAR THE REGION OUT BY WED. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WED THUS KEEPING GENERAL SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN TROF
CLEARING THE REGION ON WED WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL...BUT NICE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON THU.

THURSDAY...FRIDAY.. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FOR NICE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. ECMWF A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROF OVER THE EAST AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. GFS NOT SO
BOLD SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. FOR NOW LEFT ANY MENTIONS OUT.

STELLY


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE AREAS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH 14Z...HOWEVER THE ONLY TAF SITE IMPACTED IS KMCN. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD DUE NORTH THROUGH 14-15Z...
BECOMING NORTHEAST ALL AREAS BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY
6KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING 09-12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  34  54  43 /   0   5   5  80
ATLANTA         60  38  56  46 /   0   5  10  80
BLAIRSVILLE     56  30  55  39 /   0   5   5  80
CARTERSVILLE    57  34  57  44 /   0   5   5  80
COLUMBUS        63  40  62  52 /   0   5  10  90
GAINESVILLE     58  35  52  43 /   0   5   5  80
MACON           64  36  63  51 /   0   5  10  80
ROME            58  34  59  45 /   0   5   5  60
PEACHTREE CITY  60  34  56  47 /   0   5  10  80
VIDALIA         64  41  65  55 /   0   5   5  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210923
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO EASTERLY. BY SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASING OVER-RUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

20


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER RUNNING OVERTOP
OF THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. CENTER
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LOCATED JUST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLEAR WEDGE PATTERN NOTED IN THE
ISOBARS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COMMENCE STARTING IN THE SOUTH AS
EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND SPREAD NORTH AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REDUCE TO LESS THAN 10MB...WHICH
SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG GIVEN THE 30 TO 40 KT UPGLIDE ACROSS A 100MB
SPREAD AT BOTH THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES FROM SOUTH GA TO NORTH
GA. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH THE WEDGE WILL ERODE IN
THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO ADVANCE NORTH. LATEST
SPC DAY 3 GUIDANCE SHOWING A MARGINAL THREAT I.E 5 PCT AREA SUNDAY
AS FAR NORTH AS I20 AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A CSG TO MCN LINE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ALONG WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN NORTH GA
HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NON
EXISTENT AT THE SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTH GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WHERE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT RISK
REGION...0-1 HELICITY VALUES RUNNING 200-300M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR
RUNNING AOA 50 KTS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MENTION A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NOT IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO THINK HAIL AS A SEVERE RISK HOWEVER. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE.
OBVIOUSLY THE FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHER THE RISK AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ONE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE GFS
INSISTANCE THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL FIRE THUS CUTTING
OFF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET A SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. BUT FOR NORTH
GA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE WARM SECTOR AS THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT AND WHETHER THE COASTAL CONVECTION
SHAPES UP. APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 11 AM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE WEDGE COULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A THREAT
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

MONDAY...TUESDAY... SURFACE FEATURE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT WHILE WE AWAIT ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL CLEAR THE REGION OUT BY WED. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WED THUS KEEPING GENERAL SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN TROF
CLEARING THE REGION ON WED WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL...BUT NICE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON THU.

THURSDAY...FRIDAY.. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FOR NICE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. ECMWF A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROF OVER THE EAST AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. GFS NOT SO
BOLD SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. FOR NOW LEFT ANY MENTIONS OUT.

STELLY


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD DUE NORTH THROUGH 14-15Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST ALL AREAS
BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  34  54  43 /   0   5   5  80
ATLANTA         60  38  56  46 /   0   5  10  80
BLAIRSVILLE     56  30  55  39 /   0   5   5  80
CARTERSVILLE    57  34  57  44 /   0   5   5  80
COLUMBUS        63  40  62  52 /   0   5  10  90
GAINESVILLE     58  35  52  43 /   0   5   5  80
MACON           64  36  63  51 /   0   5  10  80
ROME            58  34  59  45 /   0   5   5  60
PEACHTREE CITY  60  34  56  47 /   0   5  10  80
VIDALIA         64  41  65  55 /   0   5   5  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210923
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS BY EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING TURNING
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO EASTERLY. BY SATURDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC AND INCREASING OVER-RUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

20


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE 850-925 MB LAYER RUNNING OVERTOP
OF THE STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. CENTER
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LOCATED JUST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLEAR WEDGE PATTERN NOTED IN THE
ISOBARS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COMMENCE STARTING IN THE SOUTH AS
EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND SPREAD NORTH AS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REDUCE TO LESS THAN 10MB...WHICH
SHOULD NOT TAKE LONG GIVEN THE 30 TO 40 KT UPGLIDE ACROSS A 100MB
SPREAD AT BOTH THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES FROM SOUTH GA TO NORTH
GA. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH THE WEDGE WILL ERODE IN
THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG
SHORT WAVE ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO ADVANCE NORTH. LATEST
SPC DAY 3 GUIDANCE SHOWING A MARGINAL THREAT I.E 5 PCT AREA SUNDAY
AS FAR NORTH AS I20 AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A CSG TO MCN LINE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH ALONG WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN NORTH GA
HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NON
EXISTENT AT THE SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
NORTH GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WHERE SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT RISK
REGION...0-1 HELICITY VALUES RUNNING 200-300M2/S2 AND BULK SHEAR
RUNNING AOA 50 KTS IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO MENTION A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. NOT IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO THINK HAIL AS A SEVERE RISK HOWEVER. HAVE MENTIONED
SEVERE IN THE FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG A LA GRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE.
OBVIOUSLY THE FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGHER THE RISK AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ONE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE GFS
INSISTANCE THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL FIRE THUS CUTTING
OFF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET A SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF THE FALL LINE. BUT FOR NORTH
GA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE WARM SECTOR AS THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE THREAT AND WHETHER THE COASTAL CONVECTION
SHAPES UP. APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 11 AM SUNDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE WEDGE COULD ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A THREAT
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

MONDAY...TUESDAY... SURFACE FEATURE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTH GA AND NORTH FL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT WHILE WE AWAIT ANOTHER WAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL CLEAR THE REGION OUT BY WED. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WED THUS KEEPING GENERAL SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN TROF
CLEARING THE REGION ON WED WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND
SETTING US UP FOR A COOL...BUT NICE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON THU.

THURSDAY...FRIDAY.. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COLD SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN FOR NICE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. ECMWF A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE TROF OVER THE EAST AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH GA MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICAL OF NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS LIKE THIS. GFS NOT SO
BOLD SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. FOR NOW LEFT ANY MENTIONS OUT.

STELLY


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD DUE NORTH THROUGH 14-15Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST ALL AREAS
BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  34  54  43 /   0   5   5  80
ATLANTA         60  38  56  46 /   0   5  10  80
BLAIRSVILLE     56  30  55  39 /   0   5   5  80
CARTERSVILLE    57  34  57  44 /   0   5   5  80
COLUMBUS        63  40  62  52 /   0   5  10  90
GAINESVILLE     58  35  52  43 /   0   5   5  80
MACON           64  36  63  51 /   0   5  10  80
ROME            58  34  59  45 /   0   5   5  60
PEACHTREE CITY  60  34  56  47 /   0   5  10  80
VIDALIA         64  41  65  55 /   0   5   5  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210557 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...INCLUDING SMALL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. HAVE UPDATED WEEKEND RAINFALL WITH THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST AREA OF RAINFALL SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA BORDER. STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD 2.5 INCHES OR MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
EXPECT THESE AMOUNTS TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE HWO WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO SHOW LATEST THINKING.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD DUE NORTH THROUGH 14-15Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST ALL AREAS
BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210557 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...INCLUDING SMALL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. HAVE UPDATED WEEKEND RAINFALL WITH THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST AREA OF RAINFALL SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA BORDER. STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD 2.5 INCHES OR MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
EXPECT THESE AMOUNTS TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE HWO WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO SHOW LATEST THINKING.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD DUE NORTH THROUGH 14-15Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST ALL AREAS
BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210251
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...INCLUDING SMALL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. HAVE UPDATED WEEKEND RAINFALL WITH THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST AREA OF RAINFALL SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA BORDER. STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD 2.5 INCHES OR MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
EXPECT THESE AMOUNTS TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE HWO WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO SHOW LATEST THINKING.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH DUE NORTH THROUGH
14-15Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE NE MID MORNING AND THEN TO THE ENE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE 6KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210251
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
951 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...INCLUDING SMALL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS. HAVE UPDATED WEEKEND RAINFALL WITH THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST AREA OF RAINFALL SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA BORDER. STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD 2.5 INCHES OR MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
EXPECT THESE AMOUNTS TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE HWO WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO SHOW LATEST THINKING.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH DUE NORTH THROUGH
14-15Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE NE MID MORNING AND THEN TO THE ENE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE 6KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 202326
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH DUE NORTH THROUGH
14-15Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE NE MID MORNING AND THEN TO THE ENE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE 6KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SAT. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP
EXPECTED.NW WINDS WILL VEER TO NE FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 3-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SAT. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP
EXPECTED.NW WINDS WILL VEER TO NE FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 3-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
242 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014



.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN FCST
SO BUMPED THOSE UP A WHILE AGO. MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST...ALL THE EXCITEMENT IS IN THE
EXTENDED. LARGE MEAN TROUGH STILL DOMINATES THE COUNTRY WITH
SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH TODAY...MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW CLOUDS TO NORTH GEORGIA BUT NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT TONIGHT WITH CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THAT IS BUILDING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTH EAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FEEL ALMOST SPRING-LIKE COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO LOWS WILL NOT DROP NEARLY AS
MUCH...AND MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. ADD ANOTHER 3-5
DEGREES TO HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER PLEASANT
END TO THE WORK WEEK.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 11-20

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1942     32 1914     63 1985     17 1914
   KATL      79 1979     28 1914     64 1985     14 1914
                1942
   KCSG      81 1991     49 1972     69 1985     27 1951
   KMCN      81 1991     33 1914     68 1985     19 1914

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SAT. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP
EXPECTED.NW WINDS WILL VEER TO NE FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 3-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         61  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    59  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        63  39  63  40 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     57  35  56  36 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           66  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            59  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  62  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         66  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201942
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
242 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014



.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN FCST
SO BUMPED THOSE UP A WHILE AGO. MAIN FORECAST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST...ALL THE EXCITEMENT IS IN THE
EXTENDED. LARGE MEAN TROUGH STILL DOMINATES THE COUNTRY WITH
SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH TODAY...MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW CLOUDS TO NORTH GEORGIA BUT NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT TONIGHT WITH CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. THIS THEN TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THAT IS BUILDING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTH EAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FEEL ALMOST SPRING-LIKE COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO LOWS WILL NOT DROP NEARLY AS
MUCH...AND MAY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS. ADD ANOTHER 3-5
DEGREES TO HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER PLEASANT
END TO THE WORK WEEK.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 11-20

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1942     32 1914     63 1985     17 1914
   KATL      79 1979     28 1914     64 1985     14 1914
                1942
   KCSG      81 1991     49 1972     69 1985     27 1951
   KMCN      81 1991     33 1914     68 1985     19 1914

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SAT. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP
EXPECTED.NW WINDS WILL VEER TO NE FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 3-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         61  37  58  38 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     55  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    59  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        63  39  63  40 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     57  35  56  36 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           66  33  63  36 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            59  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  62  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         66  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON





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