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000
FXUS62 KFFC 271851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING AT A GENERALLY DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN
BUT MOISTURE RETURN HAS NOT YET BEGUN AND REMAINS FAIRLY
UNIMPRESSIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO
WEAKENING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THICKNESSES CONTINUE SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER ONE MORE DRY AND CALM NIGHT
WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT FOR BELOW NORMAL LOWS.
LOWS CREEP UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLE DUE TO LOWER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE DRY TREND WITH WEAK RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ALOFT...BUT CHANGES COMING FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS AND
DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST...
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING STILL HOLDS ON STRONG IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE AT LEAST SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE RAIN MIGHT BE. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE 00Z RUN WHICH HAD KEPT
MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS REALLY BRINGS THE RAIN INTO OUR
AREA...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST AND A TAD WEAKER...BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LEE LOW
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ADD THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL TREND ON TOP OF IT AND OF COURSE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ARE PROGGED TO SEE THE MOST CONVECTION. AS MIGHT BE
EXPECTED...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT IF ANY ONE AREA
WILL SEE MORE OR LESS RAIN /WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IT IS
USUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL THIS EVEN THE DAY OF MUCH LESS THREE
DAYS OUT/ BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE TRANSITION TO THE
WETTER PATTERN ESPECIALLY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. NOT EXPECTING REALLY ANYTHING SEVERE
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM OR TWO AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
HYDROLOGY IMPACTS...BUT ENOUGH TO RUIN OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE MONITORING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN 06-14Z...BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS...
THROUGH 14Z THEN WESTERLY 3-7KTS AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST RIGHT NOW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  93  65  94 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         68  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  88  62  88 /   5  20  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  92  64  94 /   5   5  10   5
COLUMBUS        69  93  68  95 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     68  91  68  92 /   5   5  10   5
MACON           62  94  65  95 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            64  92  64  94 /   5   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  60  92  64  92 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         66  94  68  95 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STILL LOOKING AT A GENERALLY DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN
BUT MOISTURE RETURN HAS NOT YET BEGUN AND REMAINS FAIRLY
UNIMPRESSIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO
WEAKENING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA I HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH EXTRA PUSH FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
THICKNESSES CONTINUE SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER ONE MORE DRY AND CALM NIGHT
WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT FOR BELOW NORMAL LOWS.
LOWS CREEP UP TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLE DUE TO LOWER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY CONTINUES THE DRY TREND WITH WEAK RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ALOFT...BUT CHANGES COMING FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS AND
DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE WAVETRAIN PUSHES EAST...
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING STILL HOLDS ON STRONG IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE AT LEAST SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE RAIN MIGHT BE. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE 00Z RUN WHICH HAD KEPT
MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST. THE 12Z GFS REALLY BRINGS THE RAIN INTO OUR
AREA...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST AND A TAD WEAKER...BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LEE LOW
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ADD THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL TREND ON TOP OF IT AND OF COURSE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ARE PROGGED TO SEE THE MOST CONVECTION. AS MIGHT BE
EXPECTED...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT IF ANY ONE AREA
WILL SEE MORE OR LESS RAIN /WITH SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IT IS
USUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL THIS EVEN THE DAY OF MUCH LESS THREE
DAYS OUT/ BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE TRANSITION TO THE
WETTER PATTERN ESPECIALLY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. NOT EXPECTING REALLY ANYTHING SEVERE
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM OR TWO AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
HYDROLOGY IMPACTS...BUT ENOUGH TO RUIN OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE MONITORING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN 06-14Z...BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS...
THROUGH 14Z THEN WESTERLY 3-7KTS AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST RIGHT NOW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  93  65  94 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         68  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  88  62  88 /   5  20  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    62  92  64  94 /   5   5  10   5
COLUMBUS        69  93  68  95 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     68  91  68  92 /   5   5  10   5
MACON           62  94  65  95 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            64  92  64  94 /   5   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  60  92  64  92 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         66  94  68  95 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 271730 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO LATE MORNING
UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST TEXT AND MATRIX PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN 06-14Z...BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS...
THROUGH 14Z THEN WESTERLY 3-7KTS AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST RIGHT NOW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20









000
FXUS62 KFFC 271730 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO LATE MORNING
UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST TEXT AND MATRIX PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN 06-14Z...BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS...
THROUGH 14Z THEN WESTERLY 3-7KTS AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST RIGHT NOW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20










000
FXUS62 KFFC 271458 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1058 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO LATE MORNING
UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST TEXT AND MATRIX PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS AT ATL WILL BEGIN ON THE EAST SIDE...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE NNW SIDE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THOUGH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VRB /MAINLY STILL THE W SIDE THOUGH/
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FEW-SCT030-050 MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS UNTIL
16Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271458 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1058 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO LATE MORNING
UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST TEXT AND MATRIX PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS AT ATL WILL BEGIN ON THE EAST SIDE...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE NNW SIDE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THOUGH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VRB /MAINLY STILL THE W SIDE THOUGH/
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FEW-SCT030-050 MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS UNTIL
16Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 271117 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS AT ATL WILL BEGIN ON THE EAST SIDE...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE NNW SIDE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THOUGH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VRB /MAINLY STILL THE W SIDE THOUGH/
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FEW-SCT030-050 MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS UNTIL
16Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 271117 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/
LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS AT ATL WILL BEGIN ON THE EAST SIDE...BUT BY MID AFTERNOON
SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE NNW SIDE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THOUGH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VRB /MAINLY STILL THE W SIDE THOUGH/
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FEW-SCT030-050 MID MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS UNTIL
16Z AND THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 270712
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF LOWER MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AT SITES. MAIN CHALLENGE IN
THIS FORECAST IS THE WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AT
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WINDS BECOMING JUST NW
OF N AT ATL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION UNTIL 16Z AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 270712
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW...IT
IS STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH ONE SMALL
EXCEPTION. A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE TAIL
END OF THIS IS FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND IT
MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CWA TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 20 PERCENT
POPS WITH THIS... FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH THICKNESSES CONTINUING TO INCREASE...HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE FOR THURSDAY THEY WILL BE A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TONIGHT.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WITH EACH RUN
WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECT A
MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOPE INDUCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

LIKEWISE...FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. ECMWF IS DECIDEDLY SLOWER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MAIN ENERGY IMPULSE
RESULTING IN HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND PUMPS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS...HAVE PLAYED IT AS A SLOW START TO THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER...FEEL
EVEN WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF UPPER SUPPORT AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO WARRANT HIGH POPS.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF LOWER MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AT SITES. MAIN CHALLENGE IN
THIS FORECAST IS THE WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AT
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WINDS BECOMING JUST NW
OF N AT ATL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION UNTIL 16Z AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         88  68  92  70 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     85  60  87  64 /   0   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    89  61  93  65 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        92  67  94  69 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     87  67  92  69 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           92  62  95  64 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  62  92  64 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  89  60  92  64 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         91  65  94  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 270545 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 935 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LOWS.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF LOWER MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AT SITES. MAIN CHALLENGE IN
THIS FORECAST IS THE WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AT
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WINDS BECOMING JUST NW
OF N AT ATL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION UNTIL 16Z AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   0
ATLANTA         90  67  93  67 /   0   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     87  60  88  62 /   0   5  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    91  62  94  65 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        93  67  94  68 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     90  66  93  67 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           93  63  95  66 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  63  94  63 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  62  92  64 /   0   5   5   0
VIDALIA         93  65  95  70 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 270545 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 935 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LOWS.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF LOWER MID CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING
BUT DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO LAST LONG AT SITES. MAIN CHALLENGE IN
THIS FORECAST IS THE WIND DIRECTION FOR TOMORROW. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AT
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WINDS BECOMING JUST NW
OF N AT ATL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION UNTIL 16Z AND THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  64  95  67 /   0   5   5   0
ATLANTA         90  67  93  67 /   0   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     87  60  88  62 /   0   5  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    91  62  94  65 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        93  67  94  68 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     90  66  93  67 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           93  63  95  66 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            90  63  94  63 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  91  62  92  64 /   0   5   5   0
VIDALIA         93  65  95  70 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 270135 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT ENE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT ATL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  90  64  95 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         66  90  67  93 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     58  87  60  88 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  91  62  94 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        68  93  67  94 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     65  90  66  93 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           64  93  63  95 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            63  90  63  94 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  59  91  62  92 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  93  65  95 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL








000
FXUS62 KFFC 270135 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT ENE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT ATL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  90  64  95 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         66  90  67  93 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     58  87  60  88 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  91  62  94 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        68  93  67  94 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     65  90  66  93 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           64  93  63  95 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            63  90  63  94 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  59  91  62  92 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  93  65  95 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 262315 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT ENE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT ATL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  90  64  95 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         66  90  67  93 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     58  87  60  88 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  91  62  94 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        68  93  67  94 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     65  90  66  93 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           64  93  63  95 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            63  90  63  94 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  59  91  62  92 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  93  65  95 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BDL









000
FXUS62 KFFC 262315 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT ENE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT ATL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  90  64  95 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         66  90  67  93 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     58  87  60  88 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  91  62  94 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        68  93  67  94 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     65  90  66  93 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           64  93  63  95 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            63  90  63  94 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  59  91  62  92 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  93  65  95 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BDL










000
FXUS62 KFFC 261908
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
308 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH MILD TO COOL NIGHTS AND
WARM DAYS. SURFACE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE ALSO WEAKENING BUT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FACTOR AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THICKNESSES SLOWLY RISING ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...HOWEVER DRY AND CALM NIGHTS WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SEASONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS.

20


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  90  64  95 /   0   5   5  10
ATLANTA         66  90  67  93 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     58  87  60  88 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    64  91  62  94 /   0   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        68  93  67  94 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     65  90  66  93 /   0   5   5  10
MACON           64  93  63  95 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            63  90  63  94 /   5   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  59  91  62  92 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         67  93  65  95 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 261723 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS STILL LOOKING VERY GOOD SO I DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY MIDDAY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR...VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. HOWEVER I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
OF RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. NE WINDS 5-8KT THROUGH 00Z
THEN DIMINISHING TO 4KTS OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NE/NNE AT
5KTS OR LESS AFTER 14Z...BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME NNW/NW
TRENDING AFTER 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH...EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTION NE VS NW AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20









000
FXUS62 KFFC 261723 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS STILL LOOKING VERY GOOD SO I DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY MIDDAY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE SCATTERED MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR...VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. HOWEVER I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD
OF RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. NE WINDS 5-8KT THROUGH 00Z
THEN DIMINISHING TO 4KTS OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NE/NNE AT
5KTS OR LESS AFTER 14Z...BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME NNW/NW
TRENDING AFTER 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH...EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTION NE VS NW AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20










000
FXUS62 KFFC 261555
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS STILL LOOKING VERY GOOD SO I DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY MIDDAY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME INDICATION THAT FEW015 MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER THAT WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO RISE HEIGHT WISE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 16Z.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 261555
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS STILL LOOKING VERY GOOD SO I DO NOT
PLAN ON ANY MIDDAY UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME INDICATION THAT FEW015 MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER THAT WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO RISE HEIGHT WISE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 16Z.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20






000
FXUS62 KFFC 261119 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME INDICATION THAT FEW015 MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER THAT WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO RISE HEIGHT WISE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 16Z.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   5   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 261119 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL SOME INDICATION THAT FEW015 MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER THAT WILL SEE CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO RISE HEIGHT WISE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 16Z.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   5   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 260737
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER SUMS UP THE SHORT TERM. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF GEORGIA AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE CWA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR ONE MORE
DAY...BUT WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOW TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

11


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE PATTERN INCLUDE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NOT QUITE THE SUPPRESSION OF PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN
POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON
FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT
RUN VERIFIES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
PRIMARILY WHILE SUNDAY POINTS TO ALL LOCATIONS AT RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDES MEAN LAYER
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK QUICKER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT IN THIS GRID SET.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AGAIN IS THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY CIGS TODAY. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HINTING AT A FEW
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...I.E. FEW015 RIGHT AROUND 12Z. ENDED UP
SEEING THIS YESTERDAY MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE
TREND FOR THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS
PARTICULARLY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         85  67  89  69 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  59  85  59 /   5   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  63  90  61 /   5   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        90  68  92  68 /   5   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  64  89  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  63  92  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            88  62  90  62 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  87  61  89  61 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         89  67  91  68 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 260521 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWFA...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH BREAKDOWN OF
UPPER RIDGE NEAR END OF WEEK AND ONLY SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD NOT JUSTIFY ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AGAIN IS THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY CIGS TODAY. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HINTING AT A FEW
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...I.E. FEW015 RIGHT AROUND 12Z. ENDED UP
SEEING THIS YESTERDAY MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE
TREND FOR THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS
PARTICULARLY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         85  68  87  66 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  84  61 /   5   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  89  64 /   5   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        89  69  90  66 /   5   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  86  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  65  89  64 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            87  63  89  63 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  86  64  88  63 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         89  66  90  69 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 260521 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWFA...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH BREAKDOWN OF
UPPER RIDGE NEAR END OF WEEK AND ONLY SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD NOT JUSTIFY ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AGAIN IS THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY CIGS TODAY. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HINTING AT A FEW
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...I.E. FEW015 RIGHT AROUND 12Z. ENDED UP
SEEING THIS YESTERDAY MORNING SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE
TREND FOR THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS
PARTICULARLY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         85  68  87  66 /   0   0   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     82  60  84  61 /   5   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  89  64 /   5   0   5   0
COLUMBUS        89  69  90  66 /   5   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  86  67 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           89  65  89  64 /   0   0   5   0
ROME            87  63  89  63 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  86  64  88  63 /   0   0   5   0
VIDALIA         89  66  90  69 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 260046
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
846 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWFA...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH BREAKDOWN OF
UPPER RIDGE NEAR END OF WEEK AND ONLY SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD NOT JUSTIFY ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WITH MAYBE A THIN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 1000-2000FT BY
10-12Z. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO GO BKN BUT SHOULD STAY FEW
TO SCT. WILL SEE CU FIELD AGAIN TUE WITH SCT040 EXPECTED BY
16-18Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY EASTERLY T 10KT OR LESS. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  86  64  90 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         66  85  68  87 /   5   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  82  60  84 /  10   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    65  87  65  89 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  69  90 /   5   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     63  85  64  86 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           65  89  65  89 /   5   5   0   5
ROME            64  87  63  89 /  10   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  86  64  88 /   5   5   0   5
VIDALIA         68  89  66  90 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 260046
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
846 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWFA...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH BREAKDOWN OF
UPPER RIDGE NEAR END OF WEEK AND ONLY SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD NOT JUSTIFY ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED WITH MAYBE A THIN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 1000-2000FT BY
10-12Z. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO GO BKN BUT SHOULD STAY FEW
TO SCT. WILL SEE CU FIELD AGAIN TUE WITH SCT040 EXPECTED BY
16-18Z. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY EASTERLY T 10KT OR LESS. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  86  64  90 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         66  85  68  87 /   5   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  82  60  84 /  10   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    65  87  65  89 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  69  90 /   5   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     63  85  64  86 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           65  89  65  89 /   5   5   0   5
ROME            64  87  63  89 /  10   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  86  64  88 /   5   5   0   5
VIDALIA         68  89  66  90 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01







000
FXUS62 KFFC 251931
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

DRIER AIR HAS DEFINITELY SETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWFA...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE DRY AIR WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH BREAKDOWN OF
UPPER RIDGE NEAR END OF WEEK AND ONLY SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD NOT JUSTIFY ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED CROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL GA TODAY. CU FIELD MAY BE BKN AT
TIMES...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MATERIALIZE. KEPT CLOUDS FEW IN THE WEST...AND SCT IN THE EAST
AT 015. VFR CU AGAIN TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  86  64  90 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         66  85  68  87 /   5   5   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  82  60  84 /  10   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    65  87  65  89 /  10   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        67  89  69  90 /   5   5   0   5
GAINESVILLE     63  85  64  86 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           65  89  65  89 /   5   5   0   5
ROME            64  87  63  89 /  10   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  63  86  64  88 /   5   5   0   5
VIDALIA         68  89  66  90 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM...DEESE/BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA








000
FXUS62 KFFC 251730
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TODAY...AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THE SHEAR AXIS COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT
TODAY FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED CROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL GA TODAY. CU FIELD MAY BE BKN AT
TIMES...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MATERIALIZE. KEPT CLOUDS FEW IN THE WEST...AND SCT IN THE EAST
AT 015. VFR CU AGAIN TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 251730
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TODAY...AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THE SHEAR AXIS COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT
TODAY FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIP
EXPECTED CROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL GA TODAY. CU FIELD MAY BE BKN AT
TIMES...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MATERIALIZE. KEPT CLOUDS FEW IN THE WEST...AND SCT IN THE EAST
AT 015. VFR CU AGAIN TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 251417
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TODAY...AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THE SHEAR AXIS COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT
TODAY FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
FEW020 MADE IT INTO MGE NEAR THE ATL TAF SITES...BUT IF IT WERE TO
MAKE IT INTO ATL THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD BE ONLY FEW TO SCT AND
SHORT LIVED. POTENTIAL TO SEE 3-5KFT CLOUDS MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOSE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS 16-18KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 251417
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST TODAY...AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN GA. THE SHEAR AXIS COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT
TODAY FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
FEW020 MADE IT INTO MGE NEAR THE ATL TAF SITES...BUT IF IT WERE TO
MAKE IT INTO ATL THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD BE ONLY FEW TO SCT AND
SHORT LIVED. POTENTIAL TO SEE 3-5KFT CLOUDS MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOSE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS 16-18KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 251136 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
FEW020 MADE IT INTO MGE NEAR THE ATL TAF SITES...BUT IF IT WERE TO
MAKE IT INTO ATL THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD BE ONLY FEW TO SCT AND
SHORT LIVED. POTENTIAL TO SEE 3-5KFT CLOUDS MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOSE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS 16-18KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 251136 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014/
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
FEW020 MADE IT INTO MGE NEAR THE ATL TAF SITES...BUT IF IT WERE TO
MAKE IT INTO ATL THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD BE ONLY FEW TO SCT AND
SHORT LIVED. POTENTIAL TO SEE 3-5KFT CLOUDS MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOSE CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS 16-18KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 250751
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY AND NOW WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS...AREA SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY TO STILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI
RES MODELS THAT ARE DEPICTING SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS LIMITED. GFS MUCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE. NOT IMPRESSIVE VALUES FOR
SUMMER AND DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO TODAY
SO BETWEEN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ AND
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.


11


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT BUILDING MEAN LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FROM 700MB THROUGH
500MB MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS APPARENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CERTAINLY BY THU AND FRI...SHOULD BEGIN SEEING SOME MID
90S RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ON WED WITH INCREMENTALLY BETTER CHANCES
ON THU IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 1 WHICH
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY IN 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FROM THE GULF. THIS ALL POINTS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE ON FRI...TRANSITIONING TO MID
RANGE ON SAT AND SUN. GIVEN DYNAMICS IN PLACE ALONG WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...COULD ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT A WASHOUT FOR
ONE OR BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND IF CURRENT RUN VERIFIES...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO TO GO ABOVE CHANCE.

WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE OFFING.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS FOR THE MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE AN MVFR DECK
SHOULD FORM AT SOME OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT MAY END UP
BEING FEW/SCT INSTEAD OF BKN AS ADVERTISED AT MANY SITES IN THE
TAFS. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD HEIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND CLEARING FOR TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  87  63 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  86  67 /  10   5   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  83  57 /  20  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    86  62  88  61 /  10  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        89  68  89  69 /  10   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     85  64  85  65 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           88  64  89  64 /   5   5   5   0
ROME            87  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  86  62 /  10   5   5   0
VIDALIA         90  70  90  69 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 250548 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
148 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
BACK DOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT A GOOD CU FIELD REMAINS. DO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT MOSTLY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
LATEST GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND LINGERS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO LATE THIS COMING WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE LIMITED
POPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE AT
BEST IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO RAISED POPS A BIT TO HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE NEW CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE MADE
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. SFC RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST IS ALSO
PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SFC
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM AND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DECENT DAY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
PAST WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUE. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGING IN PLACE AND
HOLDS OFF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. HAVE TENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH SHOWING THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS SLOWER THAN WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS BASICALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

STILL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE ATLANTIC. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA BUT STILL TIME FOR TRACK CHANGES AND THUS NEED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS CIGS FOR THE MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE AN MVFR DECK
SHOULD FORM AT SOME OF THE SITES THIS MORNING...BUT MAY END UP
BEING FEW/SCT INSTEAD OF BKN AS ADVERTISED AT MANY SITES IN THE
TAFS. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD HEIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND CLEARING FOR TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  63  87  64 /   5   5   0   5
ATLANTA         85  64  86  67 /  10   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     80  59  83  59 /  20  10   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    86  63  87  63 /  10  10   0   5
COLUMBUS        89  67  88  68 /  10   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     84  63  85  64 /  10   5   0   5
MACON           88  65  88  65 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            87  64  88  63 /  20  10   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  85  62  86  63 /  10   5   5   5
VIDALIA         87  68  89  70 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 250051
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
851 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT A GOOD CU FIELD REMAINS. DO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT MOSTLY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND LINGERS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO LATE THIS COMING WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE LIMITED
POPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE AT
BEST IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO RAISED POPS A BIT TO HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE NEW CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE MADE
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. SFC RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST IS ALSO
PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SFC
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM AND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DECENT DAY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
PAST WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUE. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGING IN PLACE AND
HOLDS OFF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. HAVE TENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH SHOWING THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS SLOWER THAN WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS BASICALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

STILL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE ATLANTIC. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA BUT STILL TIME FOR TRACK CHANGES AND THUS NEED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SE THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED INTO ALABAMA WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT DOING THE SAME. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS. MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE ARE
DIMINISHING BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NIGHT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR SOME
BKN TO OVC CLOUDS AROUND 2000FT BY 09-11Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL
DIMINISH BY 16-17Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
BE 10KT OR LESS OVER NIGHT WITH SOME GUST TO NEAR 15Z BY 16-17Z AS
WELL. NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE LOW CIGS OVER NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  85  63  87 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         71  85  64  86 /  20  10   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     64  80  59  83 /  20  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  86  63  87 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        74  89  67  88 /  40  10   0   5
GAINESVILLE     69  84  63  85 /  20  10   5   5
MACON           71  88  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
ROME            71  87  64  88 /  40  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  85  62  86 /  30  10   0   5
VIDALIA         70  87  68  89 /  30  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 250051
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
851 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT A GOOD CU FIELD REMAINS. DO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT MOSTLY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND LINGERS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO LATE THIS COMING WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE LIMITED
POPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE AT
BEST IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO RAISED POPS A BIT TO HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE NEW CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE MADE
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. SFC RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST IS ALSO
PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SFC
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM AND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DECENT DAY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
PAST WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUE. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGING IN PLACE AND
HOLDS OFF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. HAVE TENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH SHOWING THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS SLOWER THAN WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS BASICALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

STILL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE ATLANTIC. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA BUT STILL TIME FOR TRACK CHANGES AND THUS NEED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SE THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MOVED INTO ALABAMA WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT DOING THE SAME. A DRIER
AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE STATE ALONG WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS. MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE ARE
DIMINISHING BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NIGHT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. LOOKING FOR SOME
BKN TO OVC CLOUDS AROUND 2000FT BY 09-11Z. THESE CEILINGS WILL
DIMINISH BY 16-17Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
BE 10KT OR LESS OVER NIGHT WITH SOME GUST TO NEAR 15Z BY 16-17Z AS
WELL. NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE LOW CIGS OVER NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  85  63  87 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         71  85  64  86 /  20  10   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     64  80  59  83 /  20  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  86  63  87 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        74  89  67  88 /  40  10   0   5
GAINESVILLE     69  84  63  85 /  20  10   5   5
MACON           71  88  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
ROME            71  87  64  88 /  40  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  85  62  86 /  30  10   0   5
VIDALIA         70  87  68  89 /  30  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01







000
FXUS62 KFFC 241931
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT A GOOD CU FIELD REMAINS. DO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT MOSTLY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND LINGERS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO LATE THIS COMING WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE LIMITED
POPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE AT
BEST IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO RAISED POPS A BIT TO HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE NEW CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE MADE
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. SFC RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST IS ALSO
PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SFC
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM AND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DECENT DAY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
PAST WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUE. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGING IN PLACE AND
HOLDS OFF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. HAVE TENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH SHOWING THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS SLOWER THAN WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS BASICALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

STILL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE ATLANTIC. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA BUT STILL TIME FOR TRACK CHANGES AND THUS NEED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY BKN MVFR ACROSS
MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...CSG IS THE EXCEPTION. CLOUDS MAY GO
BETWN SCT-BKN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT SOME
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK DURING
THE LATE MORNING MIXING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  85  63  87 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         71  85  64  86 /  20  10   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     64  80  59  83 /  20  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  86  63  87 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        74  89  67  88 /  40  10   0   5
GAINESVILLE     69  84  63  85 /  20  10   5   5
MACON           71  88  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
ROME            71  87  64  88 /  40  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  85  62  86 /  30  10   0   5
VIDALIA         70  87  68  89 /  30  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11/BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA







000
FXUS62 KFFC 241931
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT...BUT A GOOD CU FIELD REMAINS. DO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE WEDGE FRONT IN
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT MOSTLY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AND LINGERS THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO LATE THIS COMING WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE LIMITED
POPS ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE AT
BEST IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO RAISED POPS A BIT TO HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE NEW CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE MADE
LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014/
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. SFC RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST IS ALSO
PREDOMINATE DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SFC
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM AND WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SHOULD MAKE
FOR A DECENT DAY ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
PAST WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF LATER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUE. GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST. ECMWF KEEPS RIDGING IN PLACE AND
HOLDS OFF BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. HAVE TENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH SHOWING THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS IS SLOWER THAN WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THE SYSTEM. THIS BASICALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

STILL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE ATLANTIC. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE CWA BUT STILL TIME FOR TRACK CHANGES AND THUS NEED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMS OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY BKN MVFR ACROSS
MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES...CSG IS THE EXCEPTION. CLOUDS MAY GO
BETWN SCT-BKN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT SOME
LOWER MVFR CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK DURING
THE LATE MORNING MIXING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  85  63  87 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         71  85  64  86 /  20  10   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     64  80  59  83 /  20  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  86  63  87 /  30  20  10   5
COLUMBUS        74  89  67  88 /  40  10   0   5
GAINESVILLE     69  84  63  85 /  20  10   5   5
MACON           71  88  65  88 /  20  10   0   5
ROME            71  87  64  88 /  40  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  85  62  86 /  30  10   0   5
VIDALIA         70  87  68  89 /  30  10   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11/BAKER
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






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