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000
FXUS62 KFFC 061127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A
LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST
LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS
WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 061127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING. LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON TATL A
LITTLE BETTER THAN FFC. THE WINTRY PRECIP SHOULDN`T LAST
LONG...AND TURN TO ALL RAIN AS IT MAKES IT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
HI RES MODELS DON`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. WINDS
WILL FLIRT WITH TRUE NORTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN
SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO 030-040 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE NW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060817
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

DEESE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  59  36 /   5   0   0   0
ATLANTA         46  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  26  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  26  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  33  57  37 /   5   0   0   0
MACON           50  28  61  33 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            43  25  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  47  26  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  33  61  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060201
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE CLOSE CALL FOR NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING
WITH COLDEST OF THE AIR RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. REPORTS OF SLEET AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP PULLED OUT
BUT BY AND LARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...IT HAS BEEN A
RAIN EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN IN 00Z FFC SOUNDING WHICH CAME IN WITH A
VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 750 MB OF OVER 6C. THIS WENT BACK BELOW
FREEZING AT 890MB WHICH IS WHY WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

REGARDLESS OF WHO SAW WHAT WITH THIS EVENT...ROADS LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
ARE HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS COMMON PLACE.
IMPRESSIVE 70KT AT 8K FT ON SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL STILL THERE
FOR CONTINUED SURFACE GUSTS WHICH SHOULD FURTHER AID IN DRYING
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS TO MOISTURE ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
OVERNIGHT AND SPS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060030
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATESTGUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE FINAL ROUND OF -RA FOR ATL SO INCLUDED A
SHORT TERM TEMPO WITH THIS TAF SET. ALSO OF NOT IS THE IFR AT RYY
AND SURROUNDING SITES SO THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME IFR
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE 00Z ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...WIND BECOMING THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KTS
AT TIMES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THESE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
CERTAINLY HAVE INCREASED THE GUST POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT AFT 16Z FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT AND MVFR DURATION.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE SHORTENED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERIOD... WHICH NOW ENDS
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LATEST HIRES MODELS AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 5-7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL
THREAT OF SLEET... SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS... ALBEIT THEY
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF OCCUR AS PRECIP IS LIGHT AND LIMITED.

AREA OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING THE COLD SHALLOW AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FINALLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING
FROM NE ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL TN... WITH SOME SPOTS ACROSS FAR NW
GEORGIA SEEING TEMPS NEAR OR AT FREEZING... BUT MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTH GA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD PRODUCING SOME SLEET/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. AFTER 7 PM... EXPECT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO HAVE
MOSTLY PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. HOWEVER... ALTHOUGH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL
BE ENDING... THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL WORSEN BY THIS EVENING AS
MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.
ONCE THE ADVISORY HAS ENDED... WE WILL CONTINUE TO POST AND UPDATE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS WITH A BLACK ICE THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATEST PROJECTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL BLACK ICE AREA FOR TONIGHT... AND IS NOW GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING... THEN WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR CONTINUE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. THE ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MOST AREAS GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY... WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA
GRANGE TO ATLANTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE SEEING TEMPS GET ABOVE
FREEZING BETWEEN 9-10 AM FRIDAY... AND THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM FRIDAY... EXCEPT SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... AND ALTHOUGH THE BLACK ICE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED DUE
TO SOME DRYING ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN APPEARS... WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
GROUND MOISTURE LINGERS.

39

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  46  29  59 /  30   5   0   0
ATLANTA         28  46  33  58 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     23  43  26  54 /  10   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    24  45  26  56 /  10   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        32  49  32  61 /  30   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     27  45  33  57 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           32  50  28  61 /  40   5   0   0
ROME            25  43  25  55 /  10   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  27  47  26  59 /  20   5   0   0
VIDALIA         42  51  33  61 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...
UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA TAFS SITES AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF MCN BY 18-19Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NW
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z TODAY. EXPECT MVFR
COLD AIR SC CLOUDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. THEN NW WINDS SWING NE BY LATE FRI MORNING AND CLOUDS BEGIN
TO SCT AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON ELEMENTS AFTER MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

39
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 050851
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NW GA THIS MORNING. A FEW
PATCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART....PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT CIGS WILL GO IFR OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TODAY...SO HELD OFF
UNTIL THE HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HRRR
SHOWS A HEAVIER LINE ALONG THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. MOST
OF THE DAY DAY WILL BE WET...BUT VSBY SHOULD BE AT THEIR WORST
WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY CRASH TO IFR
AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NW EXPECTED AROUND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1221 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

PREVIOUS...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NW GA THIS MORNING. A FEW
PATCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART....PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT CIGS WILL GO IFR OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TODAY...SO HELD OFF
UNTIL THE HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HRRR
SHOWS A HEAVIER LINE ALONG THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. MOST
OF THE DAY DAY WILL BE WET...BUT VSBY SHOULD BE AT THEIR WORST
WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY CRASH TO IFR
AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NW EXPECTED AROUND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  31  45  29 /  90  30   5   0
ATLANTA         49  30  45  33 / 100  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     45  26  43  26 / 100  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  26  44  27 / 100  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        62  35  48  32 /  80  20  10   0
GAINESVILLE     52  29  43  32 / 100  20   5   0
MACON           65  37  48  30 /  70  30  10   0
ROME            41  24  43  25 / 100  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  55  30  46  28 /  90  20   5   0
VIDALIA         75  41  44  35 /  60  30  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 050521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1221 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

PREVIOUS...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

TDP

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NW GA THIS MORNING. A FEW
PATCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART....PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT
THAT CIGS WILL GO IFR OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER 12Z TODAY...SO HELD OFF
UNTIL THE HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. HRRR
SHOWS A HEAVIER LINE ALONG THE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. MOST
OF THE DAY DAY WILL BE WET...BUT VSBY SHOULD BE AT THEIR WORST
WHILE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING...AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY CRASH TO IFR
AFTER 06Z. GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE
NW EXPECTED AROUND 20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  31  45  29 /  90  30   5   0
ATLANTA         49  30  45  33 / 100  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     45  26  43  26 / 100  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  26  44  27 / 100  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        62  35  48  32 /  80  20  10   0
GAINESVILLE     52  29  43  32 / 100  20   5   0
MACON           65  37  48  30 /  70  30  10   0
ROME            41  24  43  25 / 100  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  55  30  46  28 /  90  20   5   0
VIDALIA         75  41  44  35 /  60  30  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 050257
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 050257
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 050257
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
955 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GA AND
SHOULD BE JUST ON ATL AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY.

41

.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 042355
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
649 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITN RAIN AND
FOG TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WITH PROBABLY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO
15KT WITH SOME GUSTS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER 02Z. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041905
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041905
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041905
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HOPEFULLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
SEASON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR FOLKS IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA THERE
DEFINITELY IS A CHANCE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WITH DEEP SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...DRAGGING A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE PUSH MORE INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM TODAY...WHICH OF COURSE WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE SOIL AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ON AND OFF
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
DEFINITELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH 12Z HIGHS AT SOME
LOCATIONS. UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT QUITE A BIT AND
BUFR PROFILES AT KCHA REALLY TELL THE STORY WELL...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BETWEEN 02-05Z THURSDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL
COLD LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MORE LIKE 09-10Z. EXPECT THAT
RAIN WILL START MIXING WITH SLEET CLOSE TO 12Z...AND AS THE COLD
NOSE STRENGTHENS AND THE WARM NOSE /AN IMPRESSIVE +10C/ REMAINS
STRONG...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
12-18Z THURSDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP AS LATE AS 21Z.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND FINAL P-TYPE...
BUT THINKING NOW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE WITH LESS
THAN 1/4 INCH SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH ICE.

WITH THAT...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LOW-END /AND FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE/ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A HANDFUL OF NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. WILL EXPAND THE SPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METRO...
NOT NECESSARILY FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BRIEF MIX THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FOR THE BLACK
ICE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MOISTURE ON THE ROADS TO DRY BEFORE THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR BLACK ICE IS DEFINITELY THE WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPERATURES
OUT THERE TODAY.

EXPECT PRECIP TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.

KEEP IN MIND THAT...AS ALWAYS...FORECASTS MAY CHANGE. THE FRONT MAY
SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN...AND PRECIP MAY LINGER OR MOVE OUT FASTER.
ANY CHANGES MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT PRODUCTS SO AS ALWAYS
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.


TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  60  31  45 /  60  90  30   5
ATLANTA         47  49  30  45 /  90 100  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  45  26  43 / 100 100  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    40  42  26  44 / 100 100  10   5
COLUMBUS        61  62  35  48 /  70  80  20  10
GAINESVILLE     50  52  29  43 /  90 100  20   5
MACON           64  65  37  48 /  40  70  30  10
ROME            39  41  24  43 / 100 100  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  52  55  30  46 /  80  90  20   5
VIDALIA         64  75  41  44 /  10  60  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...FANNIN...FLOYD...
GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041740 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

DENSE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE ALLOWED THAT PRODUCT
TO EXPIRE. ALSO SEEING LESS EVIDENCE IN RADAR AND HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND REDUCED THEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT
WINTRY POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  60  62  32 /  10  60  90  30
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  10  90 100  20
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  40 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  30 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  10  70  80  30
GAINESVILLE     68  54  56  30 /  20  90 100  20
MACON           77  63  66  37 /  10  40  70  30
ROME            71  40  42  24 /  40 100 100  10
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  10  80  90  20
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  10  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041740 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

DENSE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE ALLOWED THAT PRODUCT
TO EXPIRE. ALSO SEEING LESS EVIDENCE IN RADAR AND HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND REDUCED THEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT
WINTRY POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  60  62  32 /  10  60  90  30
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  10  90 100  20
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  40 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  30 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  10  70  80  30
GAINESVILLE     68  54  56  30 /  20  90 100  20
MACON           77  63  66  37 /  10  40  70  30
ROME            71  40  42  24 /  40 100 100  10
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  10  80  90  20
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  10  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041740 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

DENSE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE ALLOWED THAT PRODUCT
TO EXPIRE. ALSO SEEING LESS EVIDENCE IN RADAR AND HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND REDUCED THEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT
WINTRY POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  60  62  32 /  10  60  90  30
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  10  90 100  20
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  40 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  30 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  10  70  80  30
GAINESVILLE     68  54  56  30 /  20  90 100  20
MACON           77  63  66  37 /  10  40  70  30
ROME            71  40  42  24 /  40 100 100  10
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  10  80  90  20
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  10  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041740 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...

DENSE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE ALLOWED THAT PRODUCT
TO EXPIRE. ALSO SEEING LESS EVIDENCE IN RADAR AND HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND REDUCED THEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT
WINTRY POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO PATCHY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT LIFTING/CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD DROP AGAIN BACK TO
MVFR AFTER 00Z /CURRENT TIMING FOR ATL IS 02Z/ WITH IFR DEVELOPING
BY 06Z. SEE NO REASON TO NOT GO LIFR AGAIN FOR NORTHERN TAFS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAVE CIGS LIFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR /LATE
IN THE DAY/. WINDS SSW TO SW AROUND 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 5-10KT OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING MORE W TO WNW.
WINDS SHIFT NW AND BACK ABOVE 10KT AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY WITH
LOW-END GUSTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL VALUES.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  60  62  32 /  10  60  90  30
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  10  90 100  20
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  40 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  30 100 100  10
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  10  70  80  30
GAINESVILLE     68  54  56  30 /  20  90 100  20
MACON           77  63  66  37 /  10  40  70  30
ROME            71  40  42  24 /  40 100 100  10
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  10  80  90  20
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  10  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041525 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

DENSE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE ALLOWED THAT PRODUCT
TO EXPIRE. ALSO SEEING LESS EVIDENCE IN RADAR AND HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND REDUCED THEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT
WINTRY POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD STARTED TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS HAVE LED TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND
IS MOST LIKELY RE-ENFORCING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AGAIN.
THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AND MCN SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN AT
1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY GO
MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN IN THE
EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S ALREADY...AND
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  60  62  32 /  10  70  80  10
ATLANTA         72  53  55  30 /  10  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  45  46  26 /  40 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  44  26 /  30 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        77  63  64  35 /  10  70  80  10
GAINESVILLE     70  54  56  30 /  20  90 100  10
MACON           79  63  66  37 /  10  60  80  10
ROME            71  40  42  24 /  50 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  74  57  58  30 /  10  80  90  10
VIDALIA         82  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041525 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...

DENSE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE ALLOWED THAT PRODUCT
TO EXPIRE. ALSO SEEING LESS EVIDENCE IN RADAR AND HI-RES
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS TODAY AND REDUCED THEM
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT
WINTRY POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD STARTED TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS HAVE LED TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND
IS MOST LIKELY RE-ENFORCING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AGAIN.
THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AND MCN SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN AT
1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY GO
MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN IN THE
EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S ALREADY...AND
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  60  62  32 /  10  70  80  10
ATLANTA         72  53  55  30 /  10  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  45  46  26 /  40 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  44  26 /  30 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        77  63  64  35 /  10  70  80  10
GAINESVILLE     70  54  56  30 /  20  90 100  10
MACON           79  63  66  37 /  10  60  80  10
ROME            71  40  42  24 /  50 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  74  57  58  30 /  10  80  90  10
VIDALIA         82  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20
&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD STARTED TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS HAVE LED TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND
IS MOST LIKELY RE-ENFORCING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AGAIN.
THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AND MCN SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN AT
1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY GO
MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN IN THE
EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S ALREADY...AND
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 041132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20
&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD STARTED TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS HAVE LED TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND
IS MOST LIKELY RE-ENFORCING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AGAIN.
THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AND MCN SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN AT
1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY GO
MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN IN THE
EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S ALREADY...AND
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20
&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD STARTED TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS HAVE LED TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND
IS MOST LIKELY RE-ENFORCING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AGAIN.
THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AND MCN SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN AT
1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY GO
MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN IN THE
EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S ALREADY...AND
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 041132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20
&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD STARTED TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OVERNIGHT...LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS HAVE LED TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND
IS MOST LIKELY RE-ENFORCING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AGAIN.
THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AND MCN SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN AT
1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY GO
MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN IN THE
EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE S ALREADY...AND
SHOULD BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
 MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040845
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040845
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040845
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040845
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDGE IS ERODING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS
HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED UP THE AL/GA STATE LINE...AND ESPECIALLY
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FOG IS
SHALLOW...AND CIGS ARE AN OBSCURATION RATHER THAN A CLOUD DECK...SO
CLEARING WILL BE FAIRLY RAPID WHEN IT OCCURS. WILL BE MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WHERE VSBYS HAVE COME UP ABOVE
1/4SM. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL ZONES BEFORE LEAVING
THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CWFA LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARY AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ANAFRONTAL.  IN THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...THE 500MB TROUGH HAS BECOME LESS SHARP OVER THE
CWFA...AND WASHES OUT. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS VERY TRICKY AND MODELS HAVE DEFINITELY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY...THE COLDEST AIR
DOESN`T BEGIN INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN CWFA UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THU. IF THIS HOLD TRUE...ANY WINTRY MIX UP NORTH WILL BE MOSTLY
DURING THE DAY ON THU RATHER THAN OVERNIGHT WED. HOWEVER...REMEMBER
THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...SO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE SITUATION FOR THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR.

PTYPE WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND UPON THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. FOR
THE LAST FEW RUNS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AT TIMES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEN...RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...FINALLY
FINISHING OFF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF THE
COLD AIR IS DELAYED ANY FURTHER INTO THU...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX BECOMES LESS AND LESS. FOR NOW...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SLEET ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. DO THINK LIGHT ICING WILL BE AN ISSUE...BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCALES.
AGAIN...THE PTYPE IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...SOMETHING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE
ACCUMULATION ISSUE WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY WARM GROUND TEMPS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN POSSIBLY
REACH THE LOWER 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ERODING EDGE OF THE WEDGE. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE NORTH...AND SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS OUT COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY AS PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...LINGERING ONLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERNS
ARE NOT TYPICAL OF SUCH A STRONG SHOT OF COLDER AIR THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT UPSTREAM REGION DOES HAVE GOOD RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER. I AM INCLINED BACK OFF A LITTLE ON COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH ARE STILL
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET IF POTENTIALLY WET AT TIMES. UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LARGER SCALE FEATURES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT ALSO REMAIN SOMEWHAT VAGUE ON BOTH
CONCERNING ANY ENHANCED LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES. GFS LIFTS WEAK SHORT
WAVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE WEAK SHORT
WAVE UNTIL THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. FOR NOW I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SCENARIO TO FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC SOLUTION. PLAN
ON RUNNING WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS AT BEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLIFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  60  62  32 /  40  80  80  10
ATLANTA         71  53  55  30 /  40  90 100  10
BLAIRSVILLE     65  45  46  26 /  70 100 100  10
CARTERSVILLE    72  42  44  26 /  60 100 100   5
COLUMBUS        76  63  64  35 /  20  80  80  10
GAINESVILLE     69  54  56  30 /  60 100 100  10
MACON           78  63  66  37 /  20  60  80  10
ROME            70  40  42  24 /  70 100 100   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  57  58  30 /  40  90  90  10
VIDALIA         81  62  77  41 /  10  20  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DAWSON...DEKALB...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MONROE...MORGAN...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UNION...
WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040558
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  58  59  31 /  10  60  70  10
ATLANTA         72  50  53  29 /  20  70  70   5
BLAIRSVILLE     65  44  47  24 /  50  80  70   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  41  44  26 /  40  80  70   5
COLUMBUS        75  59  61  34 /  10  60  60  20
GAINESVILLE     69  51  53  29 /  30  80  70   5
MACON           77  62  63  36 /   5  40  60  30
ROME            71  38  41  25 /  50  90  70   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  54  56  30 /  20  70  70   5
VIDALIA         81  63  73  41 /   5  10  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040558
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  58  59  31 /  10  60  70  10
ATLANTA         72  50  53  29 /  20  70  70   5
BLAIRSVILLE     65  44  47  24 /  50  80  70   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  41  44  26 /  40  80  70   5
COLUMBUS        75  59  61  34 /  10  60  60  20
GAINESVILLE     69  51  53  29 /  30  80  70   5
MACON           77  62  63  36 /   5  40  60  30
ROME            71  38  41  25 /  50  90  70   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  54  56  30 /  20  70  70   5
VIDALIA         81  63  73  41 /   5  10  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040558
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  58  59  31 /  10  60  70  10
ATLANTA         72  50  53  29 /  20  70  70   5
BLAIRSVILLE     65  44  47  24 /  50  80  70   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  41  44  26 /  40  80  70   5
COLUMBUS        75  59  61  34 /  10  60  60  20
GAINESVILLE     69  51  53  29 /  30  80  70   5
MACON           77  62  63  36 /   5  40  60  30
ROME            71  38  41  25 /  50  90  70   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  54  56  30 /  20  70  70   5
VIDALIA         81  63  73  41 /   5  10  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040558
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1258 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES REMAIN
LOCKED IN AT 1/2SM TO 1/4SM FOG AND VLFR CIGS. THE TRICKY PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE TO TIME THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING. DO THINK
WHEN THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...IT WILL GO VERY VERY QUICK. MY
TIMING OF IMPROVING VSBYS AND CIGS AT ATL WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED OF CLEARING ON THE SW SIDE. EAST
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE S AND THEN SW QUICKLY ALSO...WENT
WITH THE RAP BECAUSE IT HELD ONTO THE WEDGE A FEW MORE HOURS THAN
THE OTHER MODELS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR CLEARING TOO SOON. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TODAY...BRINGING AN AREA OF PRECIP.
DIDN`T ADJUST POPS FOR THIS CYCLE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER...A FEW TWEAKS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE
FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  58  59  31 /  10  60  70  10
ATLANTA         72  50  53  29 /  20  70  70   5
BLAIRSVILLE     65  44  47  24 /  50  80  70   5
CARTERSVILLE    71  41  44  26 /  40  80  70   5
COLUMBUS        75  59  61  34 /  10  60  60  20
GAINESVILLE     69  51  53  29 /  30  80  70   5
MACON           77  62  63  36 /   5  40  60  30
ROME            71  38  41  25 /  50  90  70   5
PEACHTREE CITY  73  54  56  30 /  20  70  70   5
VIDALIA         81  63  73  41 /   5  10  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...
POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 040019 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA AT THIS TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE WEDGE JUST HAPPENS TO LINE UP OVER ATL.
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW MINS OR LIFR CIGS OVER ATL...PDK AND AHN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR UNTIL THE ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE
CAUSES IFR CIGS TO RETURN. GRADUALLY LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS AND VSBYS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  73  58  59 /  30  10  60  70
ATLANTA         55  72  50  53 /  20  20  70  70
BLAIRSVILLE     50  65  44  47 /  70  50  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    53  71  41  44 /  40  40  80  70
COLUMBUS        58  75  59  61 /  10  10  60  60
GAINESVILLE     48  69  51  53 /  50  30  80  70
MACON           57  77  62  63 /  20   5  40  60
ROME            55  71  38  41 /  50  50  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  54  73  54  56 /  20  20  70  70
VIDALIA         61  81  63  73 /  10   5  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 040019 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATED...
THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DUBLIN AND MACON TO
JUST SOUTH OF PEACHTREE CITY. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY RAIN
OR DRIZZLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MOST VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM
1/2 TO 2 MILES WHICH IS ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY IF THAT CHANGES. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

16

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEDGE HOLDING IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST GA AT THIS TIME. THE
SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE WEDGE JUST HAPPENS TO LINE UP OVER ATL.
WILL MAINTAIN BELOW MINS OR LIFR CIGS OVER ATL...PDK AND AHN
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR UNTIL THE ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE
CAUSES IFR CIGS TO RETURN. GRADUALLY LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS AND VSBYS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  73  58  59 /  30  10  60  70
ATLANTA         55  72  50  53 /  20  20  70  70
BLAIRSVILLE     50  65  44  47 /  70  50  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    53  71  41  44 /  40  40  80  70
COLUMBUS        58  75  59  61 /  10  10  60  60
GAINESVILLE     48  69  51  53 /  50  30  80  70
MACON           57  77  62  63 /  20   5  40  60
ROME            55  71  38  41 /  50  50  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  54  73  54  56 /  20  20  70  70
VIDALIA         61  81  63  73 /  10   5  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031915
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  73  58  59 /  30  10  60  70
ATLANTA         55  72  50  53 /  20  20  70  70
BLAIRSVILLE     50  65  44  47 /  70  50  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    53  71  41  44 /  40  40  80  70
COLUMBUS        58  75  59  61 /  10  10  60  60
GAINESVILLE     48  69  51  53 /  50  30  80  70
MACON           57  77  62  63 /  20   5  40  60
ROME            55  71  38  41 /  50  50  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  54  73  54  56 /  20  20  70  70
VIDALIA         61  81  63  73 /  10   5  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031915
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST A HYPOTHETICAL STATEMENT HERE...BUT ITS STARTING TO SEEM LIKE
WINTER WILL NEVER END. ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH WINTER WEATHER
GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY JUST A TAD...WHICH MEANS LESS OF
A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT LATER.

IN THE MEANTIME...HYBRID DAMMING REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE AREA. WE WERE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THEY HAVE SINCE FILLED IN WITH CU...AND LITTLE
LIFTING EXPECTED. TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW WHICH HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE
DAMMING WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHOULD SEE SOME
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT COMES SOME REALLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...APPROACHING 80
EXTREME SOUTH.

SOME QUESTION STILL ABOUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH...BUT THINKING FOR NOW CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT...
WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REALLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REALLY PLUMMET AFTER 06Z ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WITH MOST DEFINITELY A NON-DIURNAL TREND IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL /+10C/ WARM NOSE REMAINS AS
THE UPPER FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL COLD LAYER
DROPS BELOW FREEZING FOR KCHA AS EARLY AS 10Z THURSDAY BUT SURFACE
TEMPS STILL ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE
OF FREEZING RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE AT ONSET WHATEVER MIX THERE MIGHT
BE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN.
ONCE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...MAYBE CLOSER TO 15Z OR SO...
COULD SEE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH TO
MATTER THE BEST QPF WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST. BUT WITH THAT... HAVE
ADDED A VERY SMALL AMOUNT TO THE SNOW GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET POSSIBLE /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/ AND WITH
THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF A GLACE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...OF
FREEZING RAIN.

AS WITH ANY WINTER EVENT ACROSS GEORGIA...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
TIMING OF INCOMING COLDER AIR VS. EXITING MOISTURE...BUT THAT SAID
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE TRENDS ALL POINT TO THAT THIS IS NOT
GOING TO BE MUCH OF A WINTRY EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY WINTRY PRECIP MAY RESULT
IN BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WILL ISSUE A SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA.

TDP

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  73  58  59 /  30  10  60  70
ATLANTA         55  72  50  53 /  20  20  70  70
BLAIRSVILLE     50  65  44  47 /  70  50  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    53  71  41  44 /  40  40  80  70
COLUMBUS        58  75  59  61 /  10  10  60  60
GAINESVILLE     48  69  51  53 /  50  30  80  70
MACON           57  77  62  63 /  20   5  40  60
ROME            55  71  38  41 /  50  50  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  54  73  54  56 /  20  20  70  70
VIDALIA         61  81  63  73 /  10   5  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031735 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  30  10  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  20  20  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  40  40  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  30  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  20  20   5  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  50  50  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  20  20  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031735 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  30  10  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  20  20  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  40  40  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  30  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  20  20   5  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  50  50  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  20  20  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031735 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  30  10  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  20  20  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  40  40  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  30  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  20  20   5  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  50  50  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  20  20  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031735 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN TAFS...MVFR
CREEPING UP TO MCN/CSG. MCN/CSG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND
LIKELY SEE VFR LATER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN TAFS WILL REMAIN
IFR TO AT BEST BRIEFLY LOW MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT LIFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAFS AND CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS
AS LOW AS 002...WITH GRADUAL LIFTING LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESE
WINDS ALL BUT MCN/CSG TO START...WITH SHIFT TO SW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT TIMING AROUND 08Z. COULD SEE LOW-END GUSTS ATL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON LIFTING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH ON OVERNIGHT CIG TRENDS...MEDIUM ON ACTUAL CIGS.
HIGH ON WINDS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  30  10  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  20  20  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  50  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  40  40  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  10  10  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  30  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  20  20   5  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  50  50  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  20  20  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  20  10   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031537 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. WEDGING HAS STARTED
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/HEAVY DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LOW CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IFR EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  50  40  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  40  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  50  60  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  20  30  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  50  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  30  20  20  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  60  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  30  40  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031537 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. WEDGING HAS STARTED
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/HEAVY DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LOW CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IFR EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  50  40  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  40  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  50  60  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  20  30  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  50  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  30  20  20  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  60  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  30  40  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 031537 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. WEDGING HAS STARTED
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/HEAVY DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LOW CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IFR EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  50  40  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  40  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  50  60  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  20  30  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  50  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  30  20  20  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  60  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  30  40  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 031537 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1037 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

VERY FEW CHANGES THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPS ARE
RISING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN/DRIZZLE.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
THIS MORNING AND CAN MOSTLY BE FOUND BY THE DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA. DO THINK SOME OF
THE FOG WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. FURTHER NORTH...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT
THINGS A LITTLE MORE MIXED WITH LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY BE A LITTLE HARDER TO GET NORTH OF THE WEAK
FRONT.

RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...AS
WATER VAPOR AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
NORTHERN GA. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT TODAY AS A WEDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SO...POPS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY/WEDGE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE HIT AND MISS AND CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
HEAR A RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS
NORTH WILL REMAIN N/NE. IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES A LITTLE NORTHWARD
BEFORE WASHING OUT OVERNIGHT...THEN TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUST...AGAIN. MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WEDGE.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVEN NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH CWFA WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
METRO AREA.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PUSH OF
COLD AIR INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND A BIT WARMER AS WELL. MAV MOS
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING NOW AND MET MOS
LOWS REMAIN ALL ABOVE. EVEN SO...IF WE ARE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV
AT THE MOS SITES WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNUP THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS FITS THE
TRENDS IN THE ICE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS FROM THE WWD AS WELL WHICH
ARE PULLING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BACK FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDDED WEATHER TO SHOW LIKELY RAIN WITH CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE COOLER GRID POINTS AND LIKELY RAIN
WITH CHANCE SLEET AT THE MORE BORDERLINE GRID POINTS FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNUP...WITH LINGERING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX AT THE
COOLER POINTS IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS BETTER POPS PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA. WITH THE QPF VALUES FORECAST AND
RELATIVELY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MY TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION
GRIDS ARE GENERALLY .10 INCH OR LESS WHICH ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH
WWD FORECAST VALUES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO I AM NOT NEAR THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED TO GO OUT
WITH A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES.

LOOKS COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS GENERALLY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE BETTER COLD AIR NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HARD TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
POPS THROUGH ANY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS
NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR BETTER...MORE ORGANIZED...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW.

20

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH GA THIS MORNING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. WEDGING HAS STARTED
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/HEAVY DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. LOW CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IFR EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  49  72  54 /  60  50  40  70
ATLANTA         60  55  70  45 /  60  40  50  70
BLAIRSVILLE     54  47  62  42 /  70  70  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    55  52  69  40 /  60  50  60  70
COLUMBUS        75  60  75  54 /  30  20  30  60
GAINESVILLE     51  47  67  47 /  60  50  50  70
MACON           67  58  77  59 /  30  20  20  50
ROME            58  53  68  37 /  60  60  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  56  71  48 /  50  30  40  70
VIDALIA         69  62  79  62 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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