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000
FXUS62 KFFC 241135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...WITH SUNNIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS DIMINISH. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

31

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
STILL PROGGING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WITH THE FEATURE...SO HAVE
PRETTY MUCH GONE PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. MIN AND MAX TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT
6 KT OR LESS. EXPECT NE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING VRB AS THE
WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE NW BY EARLY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  45  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     71  50  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            72  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  73  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         76  52  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 240734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LITTLE IMPACT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...WITH SUNNIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
CLOUDY CONDITIONS DIMINISH. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

31


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ON TRACK FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
STILL PROGGING SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WITH THE FEATURE...SO HAVE
PRETTY MUCH GONE PERSISTENCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS FOR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. MIN AND MAX TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALIZED
MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VRB WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         72  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     70  41  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    72  45  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     71  50  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           76  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            72  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  73  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         76  52  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 240654
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY TO SKY COVER AS AMPLE CIRRUS CONTINUES SPILLING OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL SKY-COVER IS HIGH BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN AT TIMES.
ENOUGH CHANGES TO MERIT RE-RUNNING THE TEXT AND TABULAR FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALIZED
MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT HIGH CIRRUS SHOULD
PREVENT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
NORTHWEST AT 6 KT OR LESS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VRB WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         72  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    72  43  75  49 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        75  50  78  50 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     71  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           76  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            72  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  43  76  47 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         75  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 240123 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING...
MAINLY TO SKY COVER AS AMPLE CIRRUS CONTINUES SPILLING OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL SKY-COVER IS HIGH BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN AT TIMES.
ENOUGH CHANGES TO MERIT RE-RUNNING THE TEXT AND TABULAR FORECAST
PRODUCTS.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. AMPLE HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR BELOW 12KFT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...GENERALLY 6KT
OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 232324 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL TO
SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z...
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. AMPLE HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR BELOW 12KFT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...GENERALLY 6KT
OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11










000
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
304 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE IMPACT.
MAIN CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS WE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS A RESULT...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

11


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    41  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           41  76  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            42  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         48  75  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231754 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1103 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WAS A CHILLY START TO
THE MORNING BUT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231754 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1103 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WAS A CHILLY START TO
THE MORNING BUT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS ARE ON THE
WEST SIDE AT ATL AND WILL BECOME NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VRB BUT PREDOMINATELY
ON THE WEST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231503 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1103 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NE GEORGIA
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. IT WAS A CHILLY START TO THE
MORNING BUT WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 736 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 7
KTS OR LESS TODAY THOUGH SOME WINDS MAY MIX DOWN STRONGER AND OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES
DECREASING TO LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
CIRRUS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THEN CLEARING AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MIDDAY WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 231136
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 7
KTS OR LESS TODAY THOUGH SOME WINDS MAY MIX DOWN STRONGER AND OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST NEAR MIDDAY FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES
DECREASING TO LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME
CIRRUS GRADUALLY FILTERING IN TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THEN CLEARING AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MIDDAY WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 230718
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST LIKELY WAKING UP TO PATCHY FROST AND MANY OTHERS IN NORTH
GEORGIA IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY
UNDER AGAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES OF SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING QUICKLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD BE LESS TODAY AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A BRIEF ZONAL
PERIOD AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT DRY FORECAST AS THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SHOWING
SOME UPPER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SO HAVE
JUST ENHANCED SOME CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THOUGH STILL LOOKING COOL TONIGHT...VALUES SHOULD BE A BIT TOO WARM
FOR FROST CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKE IT IN FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY HIGHS
RETURNING BACK NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF AREA.

BAKER


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE CWFA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. QPF IS PROGGED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE ALSO PROGGING SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME CIRRUS BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE NW WINDS 7
KTS OR LESS FOR MOST SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         69  49  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     67  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    68  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 230630
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME CIRRUS BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE NW WINDS 7
KTS OR LESS FOR MOST SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  71  47 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         70  48  70  48 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  40  67  42 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    68  39  70  46 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        72  46  74  48 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     69  46  70  49 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           72  41  75  45 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            69  41  71  45 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  72  44 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         72  48  75  50 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/20
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/17
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 222326 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z-14Z IN FOG...HOWEVER I DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AT 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20










000
FXUS62 KFFC 222213
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
613 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 222213
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
613 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  70  43  71 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         44  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     34  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    37  68  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        44  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     44  69  46  70 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           39  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            39  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  38  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         47  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221742 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1056 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND A DRY
FORECAST...THERE WAS LITTLE TO ADJUST IN THE MORNING UPDATE. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221742 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1056 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND A DRY
FORECAST...THERE WAS LITTLE TO ADJUST IN THE MORNING UPDATE. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WIND DIRECTION. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO WAIVER BETWEEN NNE AND NNW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE NNE OR NNW SIDE.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO WIND DIRECTION WAVERING AROUND NORTH.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221456 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1056 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND A DRY
FORECAST...THERE WAS LITTLE TO ADJUST IN THE MORNING UPDATE. ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 744 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PERIOD.
WINDS MAINLY NNW THOUGH COULD BE CLOSE TO NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST
OF NORTH BRIEFLY FOR NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES GENERALLY 7-11 KTS
WITH LOWER VALUES AT SOUTHERN SITES TODAY THEN LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 221144
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PERIOD.
WINDS MAINLY NNW THOUGH COULD BE CLOSE TO NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST
OF NORTH BRIEFLY FOR NORTHERN SITES. MAGNITUDES GENERALLY 7-11 KTS
WITH LOWER VALUES AT SOUTHERN SITES TODAY THEN LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220712
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY DRY AND COOL FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
A DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
CONTINUED EXTREMELY DRY PROFILES AND ANY HIND OF MOISTURE IS ONLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE MAY GET SOME CIRRUS.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON LOOK TO BE REACHED WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING...AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO. MID
30S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG WITH
LOW 30S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA. HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
LATER TODAY WILL BE MONITORED FOR EXTENT OF POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.


BAKER


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS NW TO NNW AT 4-7 KTS REDUCING TO LIGHT OR CALM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERN SITES COULD BE CLOSER TO NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         67  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     61  33  67  39 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    67  36  69  42 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        72  44  72  49 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     66  42  68  48 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           72  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            67  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  69  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         71  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220600
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS NW TO NNW AT 4-7 KTS REDUCING TO LIGHT OR CALM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERN SITES COULD BE CLOSER TO NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  40  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  45  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     62  35  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    66  36  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     66  43  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           73  39  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            66  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  37  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  47  74  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/20
LONG TERM...DEESE/39
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220600
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS NW TO NNW AT 4-7 KTS REDUCING TO LIGHT OR CALM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERN SITES COULD BE CLOSER TO NORTH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  40  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  45  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     62  35  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    66  36  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     66  43  68  48 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           73  39  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            66  38  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  69  37  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  47  74  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/20
LONG TERM...DEESE/39
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220142 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
942 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE 06Z-14Z...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BEHIND YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT I HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...DIMINISHING TO 3-8KT BY 03Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20







000
FXUS62 KFFC 212338 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE 06Z-14Z...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BEHIND YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT I HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...DIMINISHING TO 3-8KT BY 03Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17/11
AVIATION...11










000
FXUS62 KFFC 212338 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE 06Z-14Z...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING
BEHIND YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT I HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE ANY
RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...DIMINISHING TO 3-8KT BY 03Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17/11
AVIATION...11










000
FXUS62 KFFC 211857
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CWA REMAINS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THIS ALLOWS THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THAT WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS VERY ISOLATED AREAS IN NE GEORGIA TONIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR THESE AREAS. TOO ISOLATED THOUGH
FOR A FROST ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVEN
MORE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST IS A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS STILL RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THAT DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S.

11


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THAT
WOULD BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA. IT
KEEPS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THE GFS
THOUGH IS MUCH MORE SUBTLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND DOES NOT BRING
ANY IMPACTS INTO THE CWA. AT THIS POINT EITHER WAY...AREA REMAINS
DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH FOR ANY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND 12Z
ECMWF RUN IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH GFS IN REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA. GUIDANCE DEFINITELY TRENDING COOLER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING LOWS AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WENT WITH A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND FOR NOW WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DOES KEEP MOST
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. APPEARS WE MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE METRO BUT
LIGHTER WIND TO THE NORTH SHOULD YIELD PATCHY TO PERHAPS EVEN
AREAS OF FROST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH ONLY THREAT OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE
OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND 12Z EURO DID NOT EVEN PICK UP ON THIS
POTENTIAL BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z EURO BEFORE MAKING FINAL
DECISION ON POPS. FOR NOW THOUGH...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
FEW TO SCT040 CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL
AND AHN SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET THOUGH.
WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KTS. THESE
TOO SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN THE MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED IN AHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  69  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     38  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  66  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        49  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           45  73  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  69  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         53  73  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17/11
AVIATION...11







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