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000
FXUS62 KFFC 301949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY
TOWARD SUNSET BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z AT LEAST FOR NOW. STILL SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH THAT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND AROUND TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY RUNNING NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LONG TERM
FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF WINTRY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT
WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31/01

01


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHORT
DURATIONS SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW
RH/S OF 15-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR 3-6 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED IF THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NNW
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          26  51  34  55 /   0   0   5  60
ATLANTA         28  53  38  54 /   0   0   5  70
BLAIRSVILLE     23  52  33  47 /   0   0   5  70
CARTERSVILLE    24  52  35  51 /   0   0   5  70
COLUMBUS        30  55  38  58 /   0   0   5  70
GAINESVILLE     27  52  36  50 /   0   0   5  60
MACON           26  55  35  61 /   0   0   0  60
ROME            23  52  34  50 /   0   0   5  70
PEACHTREE CITY  24  53  34  55 /   0   0   5  70
VIDALIA         32  57  36  65 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301949
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AIRMASS NOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN QUICKLY
TOWARD SUNSET BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.

WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z AT LEAST FOR NOW. STILL SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH THAT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
AND AROUND TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY RUNNING NEAR TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BDL


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LONG TERM
FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION
OF WINTRY PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT
WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31/01

01


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER MANY LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SHORT
DURATIONS SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW
RH/S OF 15-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR 3-6 HOURS. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED IF THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NNW
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          26  51  34  55 /   0   0   5  60
ATLANTA         28  53  38  54 /   0   0   5  70
BLAIRSVILLE     23  52  33  47 /   0   0   5  70
CARTERSVILLE    24  52  35  51 /   0   0   5  70
COLUMBUS        30  55  38  58 /   0   0   5  70
GAINESVILLE     27  52  36  50 /   0   0   5  60
MACON           26  55  35  61 /   0   0   0  60
ROME            23  52  34  50 /   0   0   5  70
PEACHTREE CITY  24  53  34  55 /   0   0   5  70
VIDALIA         32  57  36  65 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301705 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1205 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RESIDUAL LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THRU THE DAY WITH NO OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
SOME STRONGER GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA VERY POSSIBLE OVER OTHER LOCATIONS OF N GA BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NNW
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           55  26  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301705 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1205 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
RESIDUAL LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THRU THE DAY WITH NO OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
SOME STRONGER GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA VERY POSSIBLE OVER OTHER LOCATIONS OF N GA BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NNW
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           55  26  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301416 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
916 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RESIDUAL LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THRU THE DAY WITH NO OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
SOME STRONGER GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA VERY POSSIBLE OVER OTHER LOCATIONS OF N GA BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR THAT
DID EXTEND FROM BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME HAS SUBSIDED QUICKLY OVER
THE ATL SITES. CLEARING SKIES TAKE OVER FOR ALL SITES WITH VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG
SIDE TODAY WITH 18G28KT THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           55  26  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301416 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
916 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RESIDUAL LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THRU THE DAY WITH NO OTHER WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
SOME STRONGER GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA VERY POSSIBLE OVER OTHER LOCATIONS OF N GA BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR THAT
DID EXTEND FROM BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME HAS SUBSIDED QUICKLY OVER
THE ATL SITES. CLEARING SKIES TAKE OVER FOR ALL SITES WITH VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG
SIDE TODAY WITH 18G28KT THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           55  26  55  36 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR THAT
DID EXTEND FROM BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME HAS SUBSIDED QUICKLY OVER
THE ATL SITES. CLEARING SKIES TAKE OVER FOR ALL SITES WITH VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG
SIDE TODAY WITH 18G28KT THIS MORNING AND TEH SUBSIDING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /  10   0   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   5   5   5   0
MACON           55  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   5   0   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301132
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR THAT
DID EXTEND FROM BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME HAS SUBSIDED QUICKLY OVER
THE ATL SITES. CLEARING SKIES TAKE OVER FOR ALL SITES WITH VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG
SIDE TODAY WITH 18G28KT THIS MORNING AND TEH SUBSIDING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /  10   0   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   5   5   5   0
MACON           55  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   5   0   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300925
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
425 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO
NW GEORGIA...ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATLANTA AND
GAINESVILLE. SHOWERS THAT RACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE WELL OUT OF
THE AREA NOW WITH LITTLE LEFT NOTED ON RADAR.  STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE BUT
NOT SEEING ANY OBSERVATIONS THAT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED
MARKEDLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20G30KT AT ATL BUT THOSE HAVE
SINCE SUBSIDED AS THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A STRONG SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 20KT ISOTACH EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 9AM BUT SUBSIDING FROM THERE TO AROUND 15KTS. GIVEN
BRIEF NATURE OF WIND SURGE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT...NOT PLANNING
ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE LOCAL
WRF IS INDICATING POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...WATCHING TEMPERATURES CLOSELY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
RESIDUAL DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT THUS FAR
REMAINING SAFELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
CLEARED ALL POPS FROM THE GRIDS AND ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DECREASED
WINDS.

CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WENT WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH YIELDS
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR REALIZED SAT AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WE DO GET A
MODERATING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND MODELS OF LATE HAVE
BEEN SLOW ON THE WARMUPS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.


DEESE


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS...THE FIRST BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE RAMPED UP POPS A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 30S ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING...AND MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. THOUGH THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH ACCUMULATIONS CONSISTENT WITH A DUSTING /LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH/.

THE SOUTHEAST SEES A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS REPRIEVE IS THEN
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MID WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO USHERS PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS HEAVILY DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE TIMING OF ONSET AND
OFFSET. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S BOTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS
EACH MORNING. FOR NOW...THIS WINTRY PRECIP AREA DOES ENCOMPASS THE
ATL METRO AREA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS MORE CLOSELY AS THIS
EVENT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRETTY BORDERLINE ON FUEL MOISTURE FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH LOW
RH IN PLACE AND WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLAN
TO JUST GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR FROM
BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
LOWER CIGS ARE RIGHT ALONG AN COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND THEREFORE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR AND -RA FOR THE
ATL TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT HOWEVER AS CLEARING
SKIES TAKE OVER WITH VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY WITH 14G24KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  25  53  35 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         48  28  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  50  31 /  10   0   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  25  50  35 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  30  56  41 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  27  52  37 /   5   5   5   0
MACON           55  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            48  23  49  34 /   5   0   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  24  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         59  32  57  39 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300608
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
108 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR FROM
BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
LOWER CIGS ARE RIGHT ALONG AN COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND THEREFORE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR AND -RA FOR THE
ATL TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT HOWEVER AS CLEARING
SKIES TAKE OVER WITH VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY WITH 14G24KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  29  54  35 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         49  30  54  37 /  10   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  52  30 /  10   5   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    46  26  52  35 /   5   5   0  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  58  39 /  10   5   0  10
GAINESVILLE     48  30  52  35 /  10   5   0  10
MACON           55  30  55  36 /  10   5   0   5
ROME            45  26  52  35 /   5   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  50  27  56  35 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         59  33  56  38 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300608
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
108 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES INDICATES MVFR FROM
BIRMINGHAM THROUGH ROME AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE
LOWER CIGS ARE RIGHT ALONG AN COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH AND THEREFORE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR AND -RA FOR THE
ATL TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT HOWEVER AS CLEARING
SKIES TAKE OVER WITH VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE TODAY WITH 14G24KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  29  54  35 /  10   5   0   5
ATLANTA         49  30  54  37 /  10   5   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     42  23  52  30 /  10   5   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    46  26  52  35 /   5   5   0  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  58  39 /  10   5   0  10
GAINESVILLE     48  30  52  35 /  10   5   0  10
MACON           55  30  55  36 /  10   5   0   5
ROME            45  26  52  35 /   5   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  50  27  56  35 /  10   5   0  10
VIDALIA         59  33  56  38 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 292339
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 292339
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291914
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          37  50  29  54 /  30  10   5   0
ATLANTA         36  49  30  54 /  20  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     32  42  23  52 /  30  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  46  26  52 /  30   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        41  55  32  58 /  20  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  48  30  52 /  30  10   5   0
MACON           40  55  30  55 /  30  10   5   0
ROME            36  45  26  52 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  38  50  27  56 /  20  10   5   0
VIDALIA         46  59  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291834 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. VFR TO UNLIMITED CEILINGS RETURN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THROUGH 00Z...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 8-12KT BY 10Z...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE
REACHING 10-15KT W/GUSTS 20-25KT BY 15Z. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291135
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290819
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290819
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
GOLDEN ISLES OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A LOOK AT THE INITIALIZED
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOWS STRONG JET STREAK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
WHICH IS PUTTING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAST TRACK THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THE RULE AT THIS HOUR.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO DISTINCT WAVES OF
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NEITHER ONE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE LOCAL WRF AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE WILL RESULT IN LOW END
CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT AND HAVE BUMPED UP
VALUES TO MID RANGE CHANCE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z ROUGHLY AS PRECIP
AXIS TRANSLATES FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
GEORGIA INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH COLUMN BECOMING SATURATED FROM THE
SURFACE TO 8K FEET AND EVEN WITH MEAGER LIFT...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT VALUES TO WARRANT CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS FRONT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH EVERY 6 HR BLOCK FOR THIS EVENT.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGH BRIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA PROVIDING FOR A COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. WILL STICK CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND FOR
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  54  28 /  10  30   0   0
ATLANTA         57  37  51  31 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  42  24 /  20  40   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    58  35  47  25 /  20  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        61  42  57  31 /   5  30   5   0
GAINESVILLE     55  35  49  28 /  10  30   0   0
MACON           58  40  56  30 /   5  30   5   0
ROME            58  36  47  26 /  20  40   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  36  52  26 /  10  40   0   0
VIDALIA         63  46  58  34 /   5  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  37  54  27 /  10  20   0   0
ATLANTA         55  38  52  30 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     53  33  44  23 /  20  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  50  25 /  20  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  42  58  33 /   5  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     54  36  51  28 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           59  42  58  29 /   5  20   5   0
ROME            55  35  50  25 /  20  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  38  54  26 /  10  30   0   0
VIDALIA         61  44  58  35 /   0  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO MID CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATL TAF SITES AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT CIGS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS
-RA DEVELOPS BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO JUST KEEP
MVFR. GOOD CONSENSUS ON WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND 18Z
TODAY TO THE SW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  37  54  27 /  10  20   0   0
ATLANTA         55  38  52  30 /  10  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     53  33  44  23 /  20  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    55  35  50  25 /  20  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        60  42  58  33 /   5  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     54  36  51  28 /  20  30   5   0
MACON           59  42  58  29 /   5  20   5   0
ROME            55  35  50  25 /  20  20   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  57  38  54  26 /  10  30   0   0
VIDALIA         61  44  58  35 /   0  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 290119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SE FLOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEW GRIDS.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 282333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW...BUT
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 00Z. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281951
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 281951
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY THURSDAY PUTTING THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE BRUSHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED...BUT SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES END UP AT OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z
LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY EVENING. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS OBVIOUSLY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH AND BRUSHES THE AREA
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW EVENING. I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION ONGOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER LAYERS ARE NEAR SATURATED...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. IF FUTURE RUNS COME IN ON
THE LATER/DRIER SIDE...THEN WILL CUT BACK MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL TREND WITH THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. ECMWF HASNT CUT BACK THAT MUCH ON PRECIP...SO LITTLE
CHANGE IN TERMS OF POPS AT THIS POINT. HAVE CLEARED PRECIP OUT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ON MONDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR THE POTENTIAL A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE BRASSTOWN BALD SOUNDING...THE BEST TIMING FOR A
WINTRY MIX WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND JUST AFTER AS THE
LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE BUT SFC TEMPS ARE STILL ON THE COOLER
SIDE. WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE SUNDAY MORNING AT BRASSTOWN
BALD...MAY BE MORE OF A SLEET MIX THAN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP...PROFILE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF FLURRIES.

OTHER CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH
FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
BELOW...

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  56  37  54 /   0  10  20   0
ATLANTA         34  55  38  52 /   0  10  30   0
BLAIRSVILLE     28  53  33  44 /   0  20  30   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  55  35  50 /   0  20  30   0
COLUMBUS        34  60  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
GAINESVILLE     34  54  36  51 /   0  20  30   5
MACON           30  59  42  58 /   0   5  20   5
ROME            30  55  35  50 /   0  20  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  30  57  38  54 /   0  10  30   0
VIDALIA         32  61  44  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281802 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS 9-12KFT BY 12-15Z AND 6-9KFT
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...6KTS OR LESS...AND QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z...THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT BY 15-
18Z FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE MOST ELEMENTS...ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 281128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015/
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY... RESULTING IN NEARLY
CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A
DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS NNW WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS THIS MORNING WILL
SWING MORE ESE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS ONLY AROUND 2-5KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SE WIND OR CALM WIND IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT... THEN SSE AROUND 6-7 KTS ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280928
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GA AND TRYING TO SPREAD SOUTH
INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL GA. WITH MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT NOTHING OF CONCERN OR IMPACT THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO QUICKLY ERODE... LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A NICE WARMUP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE OHIO AND MS VALLEYS DRIFTING EAST AND SETTLING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN LIMITED...
SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED LIGHT/PATCHY PRECIP WILL ONLY WARRANT
A LOW CHANCE OF POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS THERE DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE... MAYBE A DUSTING ON GRASSY/EXPOSED
SURFACES IN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 2000 FT AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS... SO STAY
TUNED.

OTHERWISE... EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TODAY... THEN ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP BACK DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND UPPER 30S TO MID
40S ACROSS CENTRAL GA.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WITH OVERRUNNING OF GULF
MOISTURE AGAINST A CAD WEDGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO LACK IN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH WITH STRENGTH OF WEDGE...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND RESULTANT
DIABATIC EFFECTS TO SFC TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES...THERE IS A TREND TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PARENT HIGH
AND MAY SUGGEST LESS OF A MIXED P-TYPE SITUATION. PROGGED THERMAL
PROFILES AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS LOOK A BIT LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
WINTRY CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHEAST FARTHER WITHIN THE WEDGE AS
WELL...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SOME MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION IN FAR NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE NOW AND DOES NOT HAVE FROPA
UNTIL LATER MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST ARE
LIKELY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AND PROGGED QPF BRINGS CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
TOTAL RAINFALL IN NORTH AND HALF INCH FOR CENTRAL GA.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND MAY
NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER MORNING TRENDS.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE RH VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  54  36 /   0   5  10  20
ATLANTA         52  33  56  37 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     49  29  49  32 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    51  31  55  35 /   0   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        55  33  61  41 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     52  31  53  36 /   0   5  10  20
MACON           54  31  59  40 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            52  31  56  35 /   0   5  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  31  57  37 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         53  31  62  45 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280546
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 280546
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS WILL BRUSH THE ATLANTA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING THRU AROUND
09Z... THEN SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTH OF THE AIRPORTS FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREA OBS SHOW SOME GUSTY NW WINDS STILL OCCURRING
THIS MORNING... BUT THIS SHOULD END ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS RETREAT
NORTH. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER
TODAY... RESULTING IN NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON... MAKING
IT DIFFICULT TO GIVE A DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS THE MORNING NNW
WINDS WILL SWING MORE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 2-5KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ESE WIND OR CALM WIND IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280224
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015



.UPDATE...
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW...AND WINDS NEAR CALM ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280224
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015



.UPDATE...
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW...AND WINDS NEAR CALM ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 280224
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015



.UPDATE...
COLD AIR STRATO-CU CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS
HAVE DECREASED WITH SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND
10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS AND DEWS LOOK ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW...AND WINDS NEAR CALM ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 272356
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW...AND WINDS NEAR CALM ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 272356
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
656 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA BEYOND
36 HOURS. EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM.
STILL TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON. PRECIP SHOULD START LATE ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY TO NOT BE A CONCERN WITH WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL HOLDING OFF ON THE PRECIP NOT STARTING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT WINTER
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA...HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BELOW IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY WITH THE WEDGE SET UP. WITH CONTINUING PRECIP AND LOW
TEMPS...HAVE ALSO MENTIONED WINTER PRECIP AGAIN FOR NORTH GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS...

11

/ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL WET AND
MAY NOT DRY ENOUGH BY THEN. SO AT THIS TIME...NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

41


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOMORROW...AND WINDS NEAR CALM ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          28  52  31  54 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         30  51  35  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     26  50  30  49 /   0   0   5  30
CARTERSVILLE    28  51  31  56 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        33  55  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     29  51  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           29  54  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            27  51  30  55 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  28  52  30  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         34  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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