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000
FXUS62 KFFC 010747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.

LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.

PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.

NLISTEMAA


&&


.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.

LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.

PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.

NLISTEMAA


&&


.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 010542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010254
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP FROM CARROLLTON TO NEAR MACON. THIS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE TSRA TO MCN. ATL/AHN AREA AND CSG SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TSRA ALTHOUGH CSG AND ATL COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AHN WEDNESDAY AROUND NOON...REACHING ATL/PDK
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP FROM CSG-MCN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  40  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  70  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  40  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  70  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  40  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  70  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  70  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  70  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 010254
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP FROM CARROLLTON TO NEAR MACON. THIS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE TSRA TO MCN. ATL/AHN AREA AND CSG SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TSRA ALTHOUGH CSG AND ATL COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AHN WEDNESDAY AROUND NOON...REACHING ATL/PDK
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP FROM CSG-MCN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  40  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  70  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  40  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  70  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  40  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  70  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  70  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  70  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 312336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP FROM CARROLLTON TO NEAR MACON. THIS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE TSRA TO MCN. ATL/AHN AREA AND CSG SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TSRA ALTHOUGH CSG AND ATL COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AHN WEDNESDAY AROUND NOON...REACHING ATL/PDK
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP FROM CSG-MCN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  60  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  50  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  60  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  60  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  60  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 312336
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP FROM CARROLLTON TO NEAR MACON. THIS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME WILL CONFINE TSRA TO MCN. ATL/AHN AREA AND CSG SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE TSRA ALTHOUGH CSG AND ATL COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU AHN WEDNESDAY AROUND NOON...REACHING ATL/PDK
BY LATE AFTERNOON SWITCHING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MVFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP FROM CSG-MCN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING
HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  60  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  50  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  60  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  60  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  60  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 312318 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  60  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  50  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  60  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  60  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  60  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 312318 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  60  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  50  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  60  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  60  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  60  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  70  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  60  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 312024
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED THE EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE SVR WATCH. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

QUICK UPDATE...
TO ADD HARALSON AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 9 THAT GOES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTH ALABAMA HAVE A TRAJECTORY THAT MAY TRACK THEM
INTO THESE COUNTIES BETWEEN AROUND 5-6 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
/39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
SPC HAS POSTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO FAYETTEVILE TO SWAINSBORO LINE
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THINK WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS THREAT
GO A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM
THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND
AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE...
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA
AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE
THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPENDED BELOW...

ATWELL

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  53  79  53 /  20  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  55  77  57 /  50  50  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  48  73  49 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  51  78  56 /  40  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        77  57  80  57 /  60  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  76  53 /  20  30  10  30
MACON           77  56  81  54 /  50  60  20  20
ROME            74  52  78  54 /  40  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  79  53 /  60  60  20  30
VIDALIA         77  59  80  58 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 312024
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED THE EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE SVR WATCH. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

QUICK UPDATE...
TO ADD HARALSON AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 9 THAT GOES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTH ALABAMA HAVE A TRAJECTORY THAT MAY TRACK THEM
INTO THESE COUNTIES BETWEEN AROUND 5-6 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
/39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
SPC HAS POSTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO FAYETTEVILE TO SWAINSBORO LINE
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THINK WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS THREAT
GO A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM
THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND
AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE...
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA
AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE
THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPENDED BELOW...

ATWELL

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  53  79  53 /  20  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  55  77  57 /  50  50  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  48  73  49 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  51  78  56 /  40  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        77  57  80  57 /  60  60  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  76  53 /  20  30  10  30
MACON           77  56  81  54 /  50  60  20  20
ROME            74  52  78  54 /  40  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  79  53 /  60  60  20  30
VIDALIA         77  59  80  58 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...GORDON...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...SCHLEY...
SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...17




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311903
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.QUICK UPDATE...
TO ADD HARALSON AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 9 THAT GOES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTH ALABAMA HAVE A TRAJECTORY THAT MAY TRACK THEM
INTO THESE COUNTIES BETWEEN AROUND 5-6 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
/39

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
SPC HAS POSTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO FAYETTEVILE TO SWAINSBORO LINE
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THINK WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS THREAT
GO A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM
THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND
AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE...
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA
AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE
THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPENDED BELOW...

ATWELL

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01

AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  40  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  40  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  50  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  40  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  40  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  50  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311903
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.QUICK UPDATE...
TO ADD HARALSON AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 9 THAT GOES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTH ALABAMA HAVE A TRAJECTORY THAT MAY TRACK THEM
INTO THESE COUNTIES BETWEEN AROUND 5-6 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.
/39

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
SPC HAS POSTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO FAYETTEVILE TO SWAINSBORO LINE
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THINK WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS THREAT
GO A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM
THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND
AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE...
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA
AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE
THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPENDED BELOW...

ATWELL

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01

AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  40  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  40  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  50  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  40  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  40  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  50  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311849
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SPC HAS POSTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO FAYETTEVILE TO SWAINSBORO LINE
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THINK WE WILL LIKELY SEE THIS THREAT
GO A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM
THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND
AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE...
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA
AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE
THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION APPENDED BELOW...

ATWELL

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  79  53  72 /  20  10  20  50
ATLANTA         55  77  57  72 /  40  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     48  73  49  62 /  20  10  30  60
CARTERSVILLE    51  78  56  73 /  40  20  30  60
COLUMBUS        57  80  57  80 /  50  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     53  76  53  67 /  30  10  30  50
MACON           56  81  54  77 /  40  20  20  40
ROME            52  78  54  74 /  40  20  30  60
PEACHTREE CITY  53  79  53  75 /  50  20  30  40
VIDALIA         59  80  58  79 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...HARRIS...
HEARD...HOUSTON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...
PIKE...PULASKI...SCHLEY...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...
WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO
SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO WORD FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORMS
CLOSELY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAY SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO
SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO WORD FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORMS
CLOSELY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAY SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO
SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO WORD FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORMS
CLOSELY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAY SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO
SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO WORD FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORMS
CLOSELY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAY SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNAL DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
ROME TO AROUND ATLANTA AND DOWN EAST OF MACON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS OR GREATER... MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z TUE
TO 03Z WED. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL BY
04-05Z... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS SCATTERING BY 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT
MID CLOUDS BY 16-18Z WED WITH AFTN HEATING. WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED.
SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN 5-8KTS TONIGHT AND
WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDESTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO
SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO WORD FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AREA THIS
AFERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORMS
CLOSELY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
LOW CIGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A FEW012 IN THE
TAF. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING IN
FROM ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GA
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDESTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM... AND
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SUMMERVILLE TO STONE MOUNTAIN TO
SWAINSBORO LINE... WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO WORD FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS AREA THIS
AFERNOON AND EVENING. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR STORMS
CLOSELY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
LOW CIGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A FEW012 IN THE
TAF. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 311124
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
LOW CIGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A FEW012 IN THE
TAF. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 311124
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
LOW CIGS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A FEW012 IN THE
TAF. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310834
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310834
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310834
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310834
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
434 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WHILE YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. IN THE MID
LEVELS...NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEADING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WITH STRONG HEATING...SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GOOD MID LEVEL FORCING COULD
HELP FIRE SHRA/TSRA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE COMPONENT. EVEN SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

WEDNESDAYS SET UP WILL BE A LOT LIKE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OLD
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THE ISOLD/SCT POPS SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW...SO STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MAINLY HAIL PRODUCERS.

MIN AND MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT SETTING UP A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET UP NEAR ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THU AND FRI. WITH DECENT DIURNALY DRIVEN INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THU AND FRI. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS PULLS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
INTO NW GA BY 06Z SAT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT ITS A VERY FAST MOVING
FRONT. IT MOVES ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 18Z SAT. WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS FRONT BUT NOT TO
SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SAT WITH THE STATE CLEARING OUR FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY. THIS RIDGE KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH EASTER SUN
BEFORE IT PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  54  75  54 /  10  20  10  20
ATLANTA         74  53  77  56 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     72  47  75  47 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    74  53  78  55 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        77  53  77  58 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     71  53  72  53 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           77  56  79  56 /  30  20  20  20
ROME            74  51  78  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  75  53  77  55 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  62  76  56 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310523
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  51  77  55 /  10  20  10  30
ATLANTA         72  53  76  57 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  46  72  48 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    71  49  75  54 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        76  56  79  58 /  40  30  30  30
GAINESVILLE     70  51  75  54 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           75  54  78  56 /  30  20  20  30
ROME            71  49  76  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  73  50  77  54 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  60  78  58 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310523
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  51  77  55 /  10  20  10  30
ATLANTA         72  53  76  57 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  46  72  48 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    71  49  75  54 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        76  56  79  58 /  40  30  30  30
GAINESVILLE     70  51  75  54 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           75  54  78  56 /  30  20  20  30
ROME            71  49  76  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  73  50  77  54 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  60  78  58 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310523
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LOW
MVFR OR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THAT CIGS WILL GO
IFR...SO WILL SCT LOW MVFR NOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  51  77  55 /  10  20  10  30
ATLANTA         72  53  76  57 /  30  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  46  72  48 /  20  20  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    71  49  75  54 /  30  20  10  30
COLUMBUS        76  56  79  58 /  40  30  30  30
GAINESVILLE     70  51  75  54 /  20  20  10  30
MACON           75  54  78  56 /  30  20  20  30
ROME            71  49  76  54 /  40  20  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  73  50  77  54 /  40  20  10  30
VIDALIA         77  60  78  58 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310058 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310058 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 310058 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 310058 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 302305 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 302305 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL





000
FXUS62 KFFC 302305 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. BRIEF
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TUESDAY FOR CEILINGS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  30  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  30  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  30  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  40  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL




000
FXUS62 KFFC 302006
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  20  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  20  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 302006
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  20  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  20  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301745
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301745
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301745
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301745
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301521
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300829
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  60   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.



//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  77  52 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  56 /  70   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  70  48 /  50   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  73  51 /  70   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  76  58 /  50  10  30  40
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  70   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  75  55 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  74  49 /  50   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  52 /  60   5  30  40
VIDALIA         72  50  78  58 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300302
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KFFC 300016
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  20  70   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  70   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  70  30   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  70  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /   5  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  70   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /   5  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  80  50   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  10  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /   5  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291926
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 050 BY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF
SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MID
MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  68  43  77 /  40  60   0   5
ATLANTA         46  67  46  74 /  40  60   0  30
BLAIRSVILLE     41  61  37  70 /  60  70   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    46  68  42  73 /  60  70   0  30
COLUMBUS        48  72  50  76 /  30  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     45  65  43  72 /  60  60   0  10
MACON           45  70  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
ROME            47  68  41  74 /  60  70   0  30
PEACHTREE CITY  46  68  43  75 /  40  60   5  30
VIDALIA         41  72  50  78 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291739
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... EXPECT VFR INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
050 BY EARLY EVENING.  CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARD MORNING WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES.  SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO CENTRAL GA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS BUT
MEDIUM ON MORNING CEILINGS.


41

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291458
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO REMOVE FREEZE HEADLINE.

41



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 291130
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES AREA
CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWFA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF GA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP THAN THE NAM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DIMINISHING THE PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE BEST MID LEVEL ENERGY DOES SHUNT TO THE NORTH.

MODELS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BRING A LITTLE INSTABILITY INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...BUT STILL THINK THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

SINCE THE HIGH CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE. SO...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1928     47 1959     62 1977     25 1887
                                        1907
   KATL      84 1989     43 1894     65 1924     25 1887
                1945
   KCSG      89 2007     52 2001     67 1997     32 1955
                                                    1953
                                                    1948
   KMCN      87 1907     47 1926     67 1924     30 1966

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 050 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS
MAY DIP TO MVFR VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING PRECIP...BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID MORNING. MODELS WANT TO DECREASE THE PRECIP AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED A VCSH FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE/E BY LATE MORNING TODAY
AND THEN SOUTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  68  43 /   0  40  50   0
ATLANTA         59  47  67  46 /   0  40  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     54  42  61  37 /   0  60  70   0
CARTERSVILLE    60  46  68  42 /   0  50  70   0
COLUMBUS        63  48  72  50 /   0  30  50  20
GAINESVILLE     57  45  65  43 /   0  40  50   0
MACON           61  45  70  46 /   0  20  50  20
ROME            60  47  68  41 /   0  60  70   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  46  68  43 /   0  40  50  10
VIDALIA         62  45  72  50 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...
COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...
MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$





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