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000
FXUS62 KFFC 200105 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW DURING DAY MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200105 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREDOMINATING. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW DURING DAY MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...BDL






000
FXUS62 KFFC 192310 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW DURING DAY MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL








000
FXUS62 KFFC 192310 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW DURING DAY MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 192310 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW DURING DAY MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 192310 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW DURING DAY MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL








000
FXUS62 KFFC 191922
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL
BECOME NW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4KT AFTER 16Z MONDAY. SOME FEW CU
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191922
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RETURN LATE MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT WITH A
DRY FROPA ANTICIPATED...DO NOT ADVERTISE ANY POPS.

EXPECT SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT. INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP THINGS A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING RADIATION. FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF FROST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT VERY ISOLATED NORTH
GEORGIA AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

31


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

MODELS ARE PROGGING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHEAST GA MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...TEMPS
COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS. HOWEVER...DO FEEL A
MENTION IN THE HWO WOULD BE HELPFUL TO AG INTERESTS.

NLISTEMAA


&&



AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL
BECOME NW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4KT AFTER 16Z MONDAY. SOME FEW CU
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         50  71  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  66  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    42  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        48  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     47  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           42  76  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            41  73  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  41  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         51  77  56  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191758
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH SFC HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT WINDS LOOK TO DO ALMOST A 360 FROM NW THIS
MORNING AROUND TO WEAK EAST OR CALM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE JUST
HAVE SOME LINGERING CIRRUS WITH VERY DRY PROFILES BELOW...THEN
EVENTUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT DRY FROPA.

FOR TEMPS...ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE EVEN SEEMED A
BIT TOO COOL SO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. OVERALL STILL TOO
HIGH OF VALUES FOR FROST MENTION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS GOT SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. MONDAY SHOULD
WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO.

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A NE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A
DRY AND FAIR WX PATTERN. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEARLY CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS INCREASE...PWATS ON THE MODELS ARE ONLY ABLE
TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AT BEST AND GIVEN LACK OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...PREFER TO KEEP FORECAST A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT UPPER FLOW IS NEVER CONDUCIVE TO BRING THE HIGH OR
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...SEE LOCAL RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN BY THU AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONGER
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE. LOOKS ONCE AGAIN AS DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED POP FREE FORECAST.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL
BECOME NW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4KT AFTER 16Z MONDAY. SOME FEW CU
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  44  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         68  50  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     67  47  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           73  42  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            68  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  41  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  51  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191758
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH SFC HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT WINDS LOOK TO DO ALMOST A 360 FROM NW THIS
MORNING AROUND TO WEAK EAST OR CALM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE JUST
HAVE SOME LINGERING CIRRUS WITH VERY DRY PROFILES BELOW...THEN
EVENTUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT DRY FROPA.

FOR TEMPS...ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE EVEN SEEMED A
BIT TOO COOL SO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. OVERALL STILL TOO
HIGH OF VALUES FOR FROST MENTION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS GOT SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. MONDAY SHOULD
WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO.

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A NE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A
DRY AND FAIR WX PATTERN. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEARLY CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS INCREASE...PWATS ON THE MODELS ARE ONLY ABLE
TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AT BEST AND GIVEN LACK OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...PREFER TO KEEP FORECAST A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT UPPER FLOW IS NEVER CONDUCIVE TO BRING THE HIGH OR
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...SEE LOCAL RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN BY THU AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONGER
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE. LOOKS ONCE AGAIN AS DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED POP FREE FORECAST.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL
BECOME NW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4KT AFTER 16Z MONDAY. SOME FEW CU
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  44  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         68  50  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     67  47  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           73  42  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            68  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  41  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  51  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 191153
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH SFC HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT WINDS LOOK TO DO ALMOST A 360 FROM NW THIS
MORNING AROUND TO WEAK EAST OR CALM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE JUST
HAVE SOME LINGERING CIRRUS WITH VERY DRY PROFILES BELOW...THEN
EVENTUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT DRY FROPA.

FOR TEMPS...ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE EVEN SEEMED A
BIT TOO COOL SO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. OVERALL STILL TOO
HIGH OF VALUES FOR FROST MENTION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS GOT SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. MONDAY SHOULD
WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A NE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A
DRY AND FAIR WX PATTERN. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEARLY CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS INCREASE...PWATS ON THE MODELS ARE ONLY ABLE
TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AT BEST AND GIVEN LACK OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...PREFER TO KEEP FORECAST A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT UPPER FLOW IS NEVER CONDUCIVE TO BRING THE HIGH OR
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...SEE LOCAL RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN BY THU AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONGER
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE. LOOKS ONCE AGAIN AS DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED POP FREE FORECAST.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. INITIAL NW WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO EAST SIDE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE. SOUTHERN
SITES MAY BE A BIT EARLIER ON EAST SHIFTING. OTHERWISE AFTERNOON
WINDS MAY BE A BIT VRB OR SHIFT BACK TO NW THOUGH STAY LIGHT FOR
NEAR KATL...THEN GO CALM OVERNIGHT. AFTER 15Z MONDAY LOOKING TO
SWING SW UNDER 7 KTS. COULD SEE SCT TO FEW CIRRUS THROUGHOUT AND
POSSIBLE CU FIELD MONDAY NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION NEAR KATL.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  44  72  50 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         68  49  73  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  67  46 /   0   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    69  43  72  47 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        72  49  76  53 /   0   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     67  44  69  52 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           73  43  75  47 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            68  42  73  48 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  70  42  73  48 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  50  76  55 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 191153
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH SFC HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT WINDS LOOK TO DO ALMOST A 360 FROM NW THIS
MORNING AROUND TO WEAK EAST OR CALM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE JUST
HAVE SOME LINGERING CIRRUS WITH VERY DRY PROFILES BELOW...THEN
EVENTUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT DRY FROPA.

FOR TEMPS...ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE EVEN SEEMED A
BIT TOO COOL SO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. OVERALL STILL TOO
HIGH OF VALUES FOR FROST MENTION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS GOT SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. MONDAY SHOULD
WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A NE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A
DRY AND FAIR WX PATTERN. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEARLY CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS INCREASE...PWATS ON THE MODELS ARE ONLY ABLE
TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AT BEST AND GIVEN LACK OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...PREFER TO KEEP FORECAST A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT UPPER FLOW IS NEVER CONDUCIVE TO BRING THE HIGH OR
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...SEE LOCAL RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN BY THU AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONGER
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE. LOOKS ONCE AGAIN AS DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED POP FREE FORECAST.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. INITIAL NW WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT TO EAST SIDE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE. SOUTHERN
SITES MAY BE A BIT EARLIER ON EAST SHIFTING. OTHERWISE AFTERNOON
WINDS MAY BE A BIT VRB OR SHIFT BACK TO NW THOUGH STAY LIGHT FOR
NEAR KATL...THEN GO CALM OVERNIGHT. AFTER 15Z MONDAY LOOKING TO
SWING SW UNDER 7 KTS. COULD SEE SCT TO FEW CIRRUS THROUGHOUT AND
POSSIBLE CU FIELD MONDAY NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON AFTERNOON WIND DIRECTION NEAR KATL.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  44  72  50 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         68  49  73  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  67  46 /   0   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    69  43  72  47 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        72  49  76  53 /   0   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     67  44  69  52 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           73  43  75  47 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            68  42  73  48 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  70  42  73  48 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  50  76  55 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190750
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH SFC HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT WINDS LOOK TO DO ALMOST A 360 FROM NW THIS
MORNING AROUND TO WEAK EAST OR CALM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE JUST
HAVE SOME LINGERING CIRRUS WITH VERY DRY PROFILES BELOW...THEN
EVENTUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT DRY FROPA.

FOR TEMPS...ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE EVEN SEEMED A
BIT TOO COOL SO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. OVERALL STILL TOO
HIGH OF VALUES FOR FROST MENTION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS GOT SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. MONDAY SHOULD
WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO.

BAKER

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A NE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A
DRY AND FAIR WX PATTERN. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEARLY CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS INCREASE...PWATS ON THE MODELS ARE ONLY ABLE
TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AT BEST AND GIVEN LACK OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...PREFER TO KEEP FORECAST A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT UPPER FLOW IS NEVER CONDUCIVE TO BRING THE HIGH OR
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...SEE LOCAL RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN BY THU AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONGER
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE. LOOKS ONCE AGAIN AS DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED POP FREE FORECAST.


DEESE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. INITIAL NW WINDS FOR NORTHERN SITES
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND SWING NNE BY AFTER 15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB AFTER 21Z FOR KATL...WITH OTHER NORTHERN
SITES DECREASING A BIT EARLIER AND BECOMING CALM FOR AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN SITES A BIT HIGHER AND MORE NE FOR THE DAY THEN CALM BY
00Z MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST FEW CIRRUS HANGING AROUND.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  44  72  50 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         68  49  73  55 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  67  46 /   0   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    69  43  72  47 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        72  49  76  53 /   0   0   5   0
GAINESVILLE     67  44  69  52 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           73  43  75  47 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            68  42  73  48 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  70  42  73  48 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         73  50  76  55 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 190545
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND SOME VARYING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST LOWS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. INITIAL NW WINDS FOR NORTHERN SITES
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND SWING NNE BY AFTER 15Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VRB AFTER 21Z FOR KATL...WITH OTHER NORTHERN
SITES DECREASING A BIT EARLIER AND BECOMING CALM FOR AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN SITES A BIT HIGHER AND MORE NE FOR THE DAY THEN CALM BY
00Z MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST FEW CIRRUS HANGING AROUND.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  46  72  51 /   0   0   5  10
ATLANTA         66  49  72  54 /   0   0   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     63  41  67  47 /   0   0   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    66  45  73  49 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        70  49  75  54 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     66  46  69  53 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           70  46  76  51 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            66  43  73  49 /   0   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  67  45  73  49 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         71  51  77  58 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BDL
LONG TERM...BAKER/31
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 190135 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND SOME VARYING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST LOWS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW NEAR 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOMING NNE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY DAYTIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  46  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  48  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  40  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  44  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  49  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  52  71  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL








000
FXUS62 KFFC 190135 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND SOME VARYING HIGH
CLOUDS OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST LOWS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW NEAR 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOMING NNE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY DAYTIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  46  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  48  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  40  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  44  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  49  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  52  71  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 182310 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
710 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW NEAR 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOMING NNE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY DAYTIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         48  66  49  72 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     40  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    44  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  49  75 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     45  66  46  69 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           49  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            44  66  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  46  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         52  71  51  77 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 182310 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
710 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED...MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW NEAR 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOMING NNE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY DAYTIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         48  66  49  72 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     40  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    44  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  49  75 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     45  66  46  69 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           49  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            44  66  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  46  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         52  71  51  77 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE...SO ADDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT030 IN THE TAFS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 10PM- MIDNIGHT. VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAYBE JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         48  66  49  72 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     40  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    44  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  49  75 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     45  66  46  69 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           49  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            44  66  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  46  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         52  71  51  77 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181932
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
EVENING. THERE IS NOT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...JUST SOME SCT CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME THIN CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT SWITCH
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE NO POPS. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND TRANSLATED
SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING FRONT WILL
BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME CLOUD
COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR FCST
THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE...SO ADDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT030 IN THE TAFS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 10PM- MIDNIGHT. VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAYBE JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  67  46  72 /   0   0   0   5
ATLANTA         48  66  49  72 /   0   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     40  63  41  67 /   0   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    44  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        51  70  49  75 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     45  66  46  69 /   0   0   0   5
MACON           49  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
ROME            44  66  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  46  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
VIDALIA         52  71  51  77 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE...SO ADDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT030 IN THE TAFS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 10PM- MIDNIGHT. VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAYBE JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  46  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  48  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  40  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  44  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  49  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  52  71  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 181734
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE...SO ADDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCT030 IN THE TAFS FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH BY 10PM- MIDNIGHT. VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAYBE JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  46  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  48  66  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  40  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  44  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  45  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  49  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  46  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  52  71  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 181433
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 181433
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 181433
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 181433
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014



.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 181137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 181137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 181137
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND
GUSTS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE
ATL TAF AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 180754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND GUSTS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ATL TAF
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 180754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND GUSTS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ATL TAF
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN NORTH GEORGIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL FRONT MARKED
BY WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER TENNESSEE.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN THE RULE...SATELLITE DOES
SHOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WE WILL SEE QUITE A GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH. SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THIS CYCLE AND NO HAZARDS OVERALL ANTICIPATED.

HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER
WIND SPEEDS BUT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WENT WITH A MAV/MET
BC BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION AND
EXTEND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
TRANSLATED SFC FROPA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL THINKING
FRONT WILL BE DRY SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS AND ONLY INCREASED SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE NORTH FOR THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CUTOFF AND LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SFC RIDGING...SO DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
FCST THROUGHOUT.

FOR TEMPS...GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
NEAR CLIMO NORMS EXCEPT FOR A BELOW NORMAL PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND GUSTS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ATL TAF
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          76  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         75  49  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  38  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  46  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           82  46  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  44  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  76  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  71  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180613
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
213 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY
DRY AND IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND GUSTS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ATL TAF
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         74  50  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     72  47  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  45  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 180613
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
213 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY
DRY AND IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH ONLY WIND GUSTS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH. CURRENT 15G25 KTS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ATL TAF
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  48  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         74  50  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     72  47  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  47  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            73  45  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  78  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  53  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 172325
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY
DRY AND IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST...A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS MOST AREAS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  75  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         59  74  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  81  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     55  72  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           52  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         57  81  53  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01










000
FXUS62 KFFC 172325
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY
DRY AND IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST...A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS MOST AREAS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  75  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         59  74  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  81  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     55  72  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           52  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         57  81  53  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01









000
FXUS62 KFFC 172325
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY
DRY AND IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. WHILE WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST...A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS MOST AREAS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  75  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         59  74  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  81  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     55  72  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           52  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         57  81  53  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01










000
FXUS62 KFFC 171935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND
IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR SAT. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT 8 TO 12KT
AND EXPECTING GUST TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT MORNING AND WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 22KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  75  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         59  74  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  81  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     55  72  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           52  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         57  81  53  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 171935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND
IS JUST USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKE STATES. THE MOST WE SHOULD SEE FROM THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE SAT IS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING TEMPS. TEMPS SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO GET DOWN
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

01


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES...BUT NO MORE THAN A
DEGREE OR TWO. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS
INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR SAT. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT 8 TO 12KT
AND EXPECTING GUST TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT MORNING AND WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 22KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  75  48  69 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         59  74  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        56  81  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     55  72  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           52  81  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            52  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         57  81  53  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171805
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR SAT. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT 8 TO 12KT
AND EXPECTING GUST TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT MORNING AND WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 22KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171805
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR SAT. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT 8 TO 12KT
AND EXPECTING GUST TO 15KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT MORNING AND WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 22KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 171144
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER MCN WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS TO
VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 171144
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER MCN WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS TO
VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 171144
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER MCN WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS TO
VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 171144
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER MCN WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS TO
VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 170726
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH IS THE CASE OVER MCN AT THIS HOUR WITH INTERMITTENT
REDUCTIONS TO VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 170726
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL AREA PER LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
NOT PICKING UP VERY WELL ON INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS
WHICH IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION
IMPACT AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A DECREASING TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEEN ON 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND A SEPARATE AREA NEAR DADE COUNTY. WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING TO COVER.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN RECENT BIAS FOR TEMPS NOTED.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND DRY FRONTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT SIMILAR LOWS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

DEESE

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES FOR THE MAIN INFLUENCING SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE LONG
TERM. MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...THOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
FIRST OF WHICH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
START OF THE PERIOD...THEN THE SECOND TRAVERSES BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FCST AND JUST ENHANCE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY AND
SLOWLY DIG THE LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SFC HIGH ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH IS THE CASE OVER MCN AT THIS HOUR WITH INTERMITTENT
REDUCTIONS TO VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          78  54  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         80  59  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     74  48  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        81  57  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     78  55  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           81  52  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  80  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         80  57  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 170538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH A
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT COOLER TONIGHT
DUE MAINLY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH RECENT PREVIOUS
CYCLES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/...

QUIET LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS
PREDOMINATES. DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE STATES WITH A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR NE COUNTIES. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOUNCE AROUND NORMAL BY 3 TO 8 DEGREES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH IS THE CASE OVER MCN AT THIS HOUR WITH INTERMITTENT
REDUCTIONS TO VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         78  57  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     73  47  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    78  51  73  45 /   0   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  57  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     75  54  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           79  52  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  50  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  58  83  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 170538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH A
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT COOLER TONIGHT
DUE MAINLY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH RECENT PREVIOUS
CYCLES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/...

QUIET LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS
PREDOMINATES. DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE STATES WITH A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR NE COUNTIES. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOUNCE AROUND NORMAL BY 3 TO 8 DEGREES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH IS THE CASE OVER MCN AT THIS HOUR WITH INTERMITTENT
REDUCTIONS TO VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         78  57  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     73  47  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    78  51  73  45 /   0   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  57  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     75  54  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           79  52  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  50  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  58  83  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE






000
FXUS62 KFFC 170538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD HELP DIMINISH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WIND FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH A
DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BIT COOLER TONIGHT
DUE MAINLY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

41

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH RECENT PREVIOUS
CYCLES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/...

QUIET LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS
PREDOMINATES. DRY COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE STATES WITH A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...MAINLY OVER THE FAR NE COUNTIES. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOUNCE AROUND NORMAL BY 3 TO 8 DEGREES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS CYCLE ALTHOUGH WE ARE
IN THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG CAN BECOME AN ISSUE.
SUCH IS THE CASE OVER MCN AT THIS HOUR WITH INTERMITTENT
REDUCTIONS TO VSBY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         78  57  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     73  47  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    78  51  73  45 /   0   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        80  57  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     75  54  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           79  52  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            79  50  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         81  58  83  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE







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