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000
FXUS62 KFFC 271751
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016



.UPDATE...
Have made minor updates to the afternoon pops to account for
latest model solutions on north Georgia convection. No other
changes are planned at this time.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Showers persisting over portions of northeast GA this morning may be
supported by a weak short wave vicinity of the southern
Appalachians. This feature was evident on water vapor and models
show it lingering into tonight. At this time...gfs and nam show much
of central GA to be generally more stable today...so have limited
the pops to much of north GA today into this evening. Low pressure
developing off the southeast coast is being monitored...but for now
there may be a slight chance of showers for the extreme east central
zones on Saturday. The remainder of the forecast area should be dry
due to subsidence...however increasing southerly flow into the Gulf
coast could trigger isolated showers for the extreme northwest
corner for Saturday. Have stayed close to mav/met temperatures.

41

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH INTERESTS FOCUSED ON COASTAL TROPICAL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK NW INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NHC IS CARRYING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THOUGH FOR NOW ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO
STAY EAST OF THE CWA AND PRIMARILY BRING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EAST GOING INTO SUNDAY. POSITIONING OF LOW
MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NORTH AND WEST
FIGHTING DIURNAL FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN EVOLUTION OF LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD TO OUR EAST. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND STAGNATES SOME FORM OF THE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SC
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS/SHIFTS EAST AFTER
MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN NORTH AND EAST
WITH SLIGHT ELSEWHERE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON BROAD SW FLOW RETURN WITH RAMPED UP INSTABILITY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO HAVE RAISED TO 30-40 POPS
AREA-WIDE THURS AND FRI FOR A BIT GREATER STORM POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER /3-5 DEG/ THAN CLIMO
NORMS THRU PERIOD.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR expected through the period. Convection is expected to be
limited and generally across north Georgia and away from TAF
sites. East winds at 6-8kt through this evening will diminish
overnight, then increase to 5-7kt by mid morning. FEW-SCT CU
expected to develop late morning/early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  62  87  64 /  20  10   5  10
Atlanta         86  65  86  66 /  20  10   5   5
Blairsville     80  61  83  58 /  40  20  10  10
Cartersville    85  63  87  61 /  30  20  10   5
Columbus        88  65  87  66 /  10   5   5   5
Gainesville     84  64  85  64 /  50  20   5   5
Macon           88  61  87  64 /   5   5   5  10
Rome            87  63  87  61 /  30  20  20   5
Peachtree City  87  61  86  60 /  20  10   5   5
Vidalia         88  64  86  67 /  10   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...31





000
FXUS62 KFFC 261748
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
148 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

A broad upper ridge should persist over the southeast during the
short term. A weak short wave crossing the southern Appalachians
today could support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today
into the evening. Have continued with chance pops much of northeast
where best cape and better moisture is indicated. Otherwise...slight
chance for most of the remainder of the forecast area. For Friday no
big changes are expected. Still looking at best moisture and
dynamics vicinity of the Appalachians...with ridging dominating the
remainder of the area. Have confined pops on Friday to the area
from Atlanta to Athens and north. Have stayed close to mav/met
compromise.

41

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Extended forecast period continues to be dominated by the western
Atlantic low. GFS and ECMWF both show the primary impacts from this
system remaining east of the forecast area through the period. The
weekend still looks like a quieter period as we are under the
influence of subsidence along the periphery of the system and
somewhat stable easterly low-level flow. Upper low and surface
reflection really do not make it further west than the Carolina/
Georgia coast or maybe the Carolina low-country. By Monday through
Thursday model instability increases some as well as deeper moisture
over the forecast area and we lose the subsidence over the state so
at least scattered...somewhat diurnal in nature...convection still
looks probable.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. There is an
issue with showers tonight as models are beginning to indicate a
chance of showers...mainly late tonight. Will keep mention of shra
out of TAFs but will keep SCT040-050 through the night. Winds will
be light southwest this afternoon...becoming near calm or light
southeast this evening and tonight and remain southeast Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on sky cover tonight.
Medium on chances of shra tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  64  86  63 /  20  20  10  10
Atlanta         87  66  86  65 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     82  61  82  59 /  30  20  30  20
Cartersville    88  65  87  63 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus        88  67  88  66 /  20  20   5   5
Gainesville     86  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  20
Macon           90  63  89  64 /  20  20   5   5
Rome            89  64  87  63 /  20  20  30  20
Peachtree City  87  63  86  63 /  20  20  20  10
Vidalia         89  64  87  65 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





000
FXUS62 KFFC 252345
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 207 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Short range models in pretty good agreement for tonight. The short
wave currently moving across the Tennessee Valley has lost a lot of
strength and as of this writing there were no showers associated
with it in Georgia or upstream. Will hold on to low end pops for the
rest of this afternoon and continue with dry conditions tonight.
Models differ on Thursday with the GFS increasing pops to good
chance across north GA while the NAM is remaining very nearly dry.
Hi-Res models are indicating some convection across just about
anywhere in the CWA. Will maintain current pops for Thursday with
chance to slight chance across north GA Thursday afternoon. Any
convection that does develop will dissipate after sunset Thursday
evening. Temps will remain near to just above normal through the
short term.

17

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

Previous Discussion...
Extended forecast period starts out somewhat quiet as subsidence and
slightly drier air push in from the east ahead of the western
Atlantic low Friday through much of Saturday. Deep Atlantic moisture
pushes in by Sunday as the western Atlantic system edges closer.
First half of next week looks to be potentially quite wet as this
system lingers over the region. Still some differences between the
GFS and ECMWF models concerning some of the details...but both show
some manner of weak upper-level and surface low pressure wobbling
around the Carolinas and Georgia. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through the period but weak
mid-level lapse rates keep instability minimal.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Another VFR forecast on tap. Mainly a cloud and wind forecast.
Winds expected to shift just east of 180 degrees at all sites
just after sunset...then veer to the sw by 14-15z Thurs. Some
upstream mid level convective debris along with some low-level
upglide could allow for some scattered clouds at 120-150 and
040-050 overnight respectively. Diurnal cu field will develop
late morning/early Thurs afternoon. Convective potential too
marginal to mention at any site. No restrictions to vsbys
expected.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on overnight cloud cover
High on all other elements

Kovacik


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  88  65  87 /   5  30  20  10
Atlanta         68  87  67  85 /   5  20  10  20
Blairsville     60  83  63  82 /  10  40  20  30
Cartersville    66  88  68  86 /   5  20  10  20
Columbus        68  89  68  87 /   5  20  10  10
Gainesville     66  85  67  84 /   5  30  20  20
Macon           64  90  64  87 /   5  20  10   5
Rome            63  88  66  87 /   5  20  10  30
Peachtree City  64  88  64  85 /   5  20  10  10
Vidalia         66  89  65  88 /   5  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Kovacik





000
FXUS62 KFFC 251357 CCA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
957 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Isolated showers continue across north AL associated with a vort
max moving across central TN. These showers will continue and
should push into northwest GA by late morning. Will add slight
chance pops to northwest GA. No other changes planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

High pressure will move offshore today. Not much going on weather-
wise at the surface for the next two days. However, the mid levels
will remain active.

Nearly zonal flow aloft will allow for several shortwaves in the
flow to traverse the CWFA through Thursday afternoon. The hi-res
models are beginning to pick up on these features and produce a
little more coverage of convection than in previous forecasts. The
models, even the hi-res, still have difficulty timing these features
and struggle with convective coverage even in the best of times. So,
have blended the trends of the local arw and wrf runs to paint
iso/sct coverage mainly across the north Georgia mountains today. A
bit more coverage is indicated tomorrow...with iso/sct coverage
mainly north of I-20.

Temps will continue to above normal.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

Extended forecast period starts out somewhat quiet as subsidence and
slightly drier air push in from the east ahead of the western
Atlantic low Friday through much of Saturday. Deep Atlantic moisture
pushes in by Sunday as the western Atlantic system edges closer.
First half of next week looks to be potentially quite wet as this
system lingers over the region. Still some differences between the
GFS and ECMWF models concerning some of the details...but both show
some manner of weak upper-level and surface low pressure wobbling
around the Carolinas and Georgia. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range through the period but weak
mid-level lapse rates keep instability minimal.

20

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Hi-res models are producing a
little more convective coverage for today and Thursday...but the
best chances remain to the north of ATL at this time. The main
forecast challenge remains the winds.Winds could go se for a few
hours around 12z this morning...but should go back to the w side
with mixing. Hi-res models showing winds going to the east side
again this evening and overnight. Speeds will remain light and
should average around 6kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence winds. Otherwise...high confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  63  88  64 /  10   5  30  20
Atlanta         86  67  87  66 /  10   5  20  20
Blairsville     82  60  84  60 /  30  10  30  20
Cartersville    88  63  88  65 /  10   5  20  20
Columbus        88  66  88  67 /  10   5  10   5
Gainesville     85  65  86  64 /  20   5  30  20
Macon           89  64  89  63 /  10   5  20   5
Rome            88  62  89  64 /  20   5  30  20
Peachtree City  87  62  87  63 /  10   5  20  10
Vidalia         88  65  88  65 /  10   5  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17





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