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000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

EVENING UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AROUND
MACON...AND SOME AREAS COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH WET GROUNDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND WITH DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT... NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS NORTH GA AND NOT MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY FAST. /39

EVENING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PRETTY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN...BUT IT IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED ACROSS NORTHERN GA IN THE
DEWPOINT FIELD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL GA. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED AT ATL AT THIS
TIME...BUT IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED PATCHY FOG MAY FORM.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW BEFORE 12Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTED VSBYS AND WIND SHIFT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  48  78  59 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         74  53  79  61 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  43  74  54 /   0   0   5  50
CARTERSVILLE    73  43  79  58 /   0   0   5  30
COLUMBUS        79  54  80  60 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     74  50  75  59 /   0   0   5  30
MACON           80  49  82  60 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            74  43  80  58 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  76  45  80  59 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         81  58  83  62 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 230210
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AROUND
MACON...AND SOME AREAS COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
WITH WET GROUNDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... AND WITH DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT... NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT IS STILL
ACROSS NORTH GA AND NOT MOVING SOUTHWARD VERY FAST. /39

.EVENING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO NW GA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN AREAS
BETWEEN 05-07Z TONIGHT. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING
EAST... SO NO THUNDER THREAT. ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
SKIES SCT AFTER FROPA... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF -RA WITH
MVFR CIGS THRU 03-04Z THIS EVENING. AFTER FROPA... EXPECT SCT MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AROUND THRU 09Z...THEN EXPECT FEW TO SKC. WEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE NW WINDS 10G17KTS ON WED DURING DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD END BY 21-22Z WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39














000
FXUS62 KFFC 222340
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA... THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE ALL
PUSHING EAST AND TAKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH IT. RADAR SHOWING
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN OUR FAR SW FORECAST AREA NEAR
LYONS... AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 8 PM. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA FOR
THIS EVENING... EXCEPT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE THROUGH 10 PM WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND 500-800 CAPE STILL LINGER.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN BY 02-04 AM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
PATCH OF -RA UNTIL FROPA...THEN EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH A
5-10 MPH NW WIND USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS FOR WED. /39


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO NW GA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT... THEN CSG-MCN AREAS
BETWEEN 05-07Z TONIGHT. THE DRIVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING
EAST... SO NO THUNDER THREAT. ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL
SKIES SCT AFTER FROPA... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF -RA WITH
MVFR CIGS THRU 03-04Z THIS EVENING. AFTER FROPA... EXPECT SCT MID
LEVELS CLOUDS AROUND THRU 09Z...THEN EXPECT FEW TO SKC. WEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE NW WINDS 10G17KTS ON WED DURING DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
GUSTS SHOULD END BY 21-22Z WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39











000
FXUS62 KFFC 221922
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WEAK DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
CWA AFTER 06Z SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
THE RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z. LOOKING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME COOL AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN FORECAST MAINLY CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THE FRONT...AND WHILE ALL DEEP MOISTURE HAS EXITED BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CIN THAT FORMS OVER THE REGION AND
ALTHOUGH THE CIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY CONVECTION. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVING AFTER 00Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  77  48  78 /  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         55  74  53  79 /  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     45  71  43  74 /  20   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  73  43  79 /  20   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        57  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     53  74  50  75 /  20   0   0   5
MACON           55  80  49  82 /  30   0   0   5
ROME            49  74  43  80 /  20   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  53  76  45  80 /  30   0   0   5
VIDALIA         59  81  58  83 /  30   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...41








000
FXUS62 KFFC 221850
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.

STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

01

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR IN RAIN. GRADUAL IMPROVING AFTER 00Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

41

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  51  76  53 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         77  51  74  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  43  70  45 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  49  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  56  79  57 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     74  49  75  54 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           80  55  79  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            75  48  73  46 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         83  59  80  59 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KFFC 221129
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.

STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL CROSS THE
REGION TODAY. DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAF...PRECIP
TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD. MVFR CIGS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES
BY THE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  51  76  53 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         77  51  74  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  43  70  45 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  49  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  56  79  57 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     74  49  75  54 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           80  55  79  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            75  48  73  46 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         83  59  80  59 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 220802
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CWFA LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AL AHEAD A
SHORTWAVE. SFC/500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE
PRECIP. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED RATHER CLOSELY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE POPS. MODELS ALSO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS A
BIT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS GA. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN A
TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL
TO THE NORTH.

STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SLIGHTLY...BUT
SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...AND THE SHEAR AND UPPER
FORCING REMAIN WEAK.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU
KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES
EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT
LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 06Z TO 12Z FRI. THE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY ISSUES WITH FLOODING. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE
AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THAN A SPRING PATTERN WITH DECENT CAPE AND LOW
SHEAR. STARTING FRIDAY...CAPES AND LIS PEAK EVERYDAY AROUND 18Z
AND FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z. TEMPS ALSO LOOK MORE LIKE SUMMER
BEGINNING THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WITH SLOWING THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY DOWN...AND
LATEST TAF SET REFLECTS THAT TREND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DONT
REALLY SHOW PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS...BUT COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  51  76  53 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         77  51  74  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     68  43  70  45 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    74  49  73  48 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  56  79  57 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     74  49  75  54 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           80  55  79  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            75  48  73  46 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  76  51  76  51 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         83  59  80  59 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA








000
FXUS62 KFFC 220522
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

EVENING UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PROBABLY MOSTLY VIRGA SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AND ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH GA. THIS IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST... SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
INITIAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE EVENING OR EARLY PART OF OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA BY MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
A DEGREE OR SO FOR SOME SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH A
PREVAILING WARM SW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ZONES AT THIS
TIME. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
RIDGE ALOFT SLIDING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREAD POPS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL SO NOT LOOKING FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG MAINLY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CAPE AND DAYTIME HEATING. HPC GIVING
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING RETURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...HAVE
FAVORED THE WARM SIDE OF MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING SHORT-TERM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE WITH THE ONSET
AND DURATION OF THE LATE WEEK - EARLY WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. HAVE
MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WITH JUST MINOR EDITS
TO REFRESH THE CURRENT GRIDS. FOR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER
VERY WET PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WITH SLOWING THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY DOWN...AND
LATEST TAF SET REFLECTS THAT TREND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DONT
REALLY SHOW PREDOMINATE MVFR CIGS...BUT COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  51  77  51 /  60  30   0   0
ATLANTA         75  52  76  55 /  60  30   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     71  44  74  44 /  60  30   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  75  45 /  60  30   0   0
COLUMBUS        77  55  79  56 /  50  40   5   0
GAINESVILLE     73  50  74  52 /  60  30   0   0
MACON           78  54  80  53 /  50  50   5   0
ROME            73  48  76  44 /  60  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  75  51  77  47 /  60  30   5   0
VIDALIA         79  58  80  58 /  50  50   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...ATWELL







000
FXUS62 KFFC 220009
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PROBABLY MOSTLY VIRGA SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AND ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH GA. THIS IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST... SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
INITIAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE EVENING OR EARLY PART OF OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GA BY MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
A DEGREE OR SO FOR SOME SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WITH A
PREVAILING WARM SW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ZONES AT THIS
TIME. /39

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
RIDGE ALOFT SLIDING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREAD POPS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL SO NOT LOOKING FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG MAINLY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CAPE AND DAYTIME HEATING. HPC GIVING
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING RETURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...HAVE
FAVORED THE WARM SIDE OF MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING SHORT-TERM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE WITH THE ONSET
AND DURATION OF THE LATE WEEK - EARLY WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. HAVE
MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WITH JUST MINOR EDITS
TO REFRESH THE CURRENT GRIDS. FOR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER
VERY WET PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31


/ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01

&&

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ITS GRIP AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT...
THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. EXPECT MID LEVEL CIGS
BY 08-10Z TUE IN ATLANTA... THEN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS BY 14Z.
WILL SHOW A TEMPO/PROB30 -TSRA FROM 15Z TO 19Z FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. THE -TSRA THREAT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF ATL BY 19-20Z
TUE... WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THAT TIME. WSW
WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12-15KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS BY 18-19Z TUE. THE GUST SHOULD END BY 00Z WED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  77  51  77 /   5  60  20   0
ATLANTA         60  75  52  76 /  10  60  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  71  44  74 /  30  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    57  73  48  75 /  30  60  10   0
COLUMBUS        57  77  55  79 /   5  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     57  73  50  74 /  20  60  10   0
MACON           53  78  54  80 /   5  50  30   0
ROME            58  73  48  76 /  30  60  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  54  75  51  77 /   5  60  20   0
VIDALIA         55  79  58  80 /   5  40  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...39










000
FXUS62 KFFC 211941
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE ALOFT SLIDING EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GA
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INTRODUCED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREAD POPS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL SO NOT LOOKING FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG MAINLY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CAPE AND DAYTIME HEATING. HPC GIVING
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING RETURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...HAVE
FAVORED THE WARM SIDE OF MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE MAV/MET BLEND LOOKS OKAY.

41


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING SHORT-TERM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO DIVERGE WITH THE ONSET
AND DURATION OF THE LATE WEEK - EARLY WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. HAVE
MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...WITH JUST MINOR EDITS
TO REFRESH THE CURRENT GRIDS. FOR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER
VERY WET PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31


/ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT BUT GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT MVFR BY AROUND 14Z TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND MVFR ON TUESDAY.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  77  51  77 /   5  60  20   0
ATLANTA         60  75  52  76 /  10  60  20   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  71  44  74 /  30  60  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    57  73  48  75 /  30  60  10   0
COLUMBUS        57  77  55  79 /   5  60  20   0
GAINESVILLE     57  73  50  74 /  20  60  10   0
MACON           53  78  54  80 /   5  50  30   0
ROME            58  73  48  76 /  30  60  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  54  75  51  77 /   5  60  20   0
VIDALIA         55  79  58  80 /   5  40  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...41







000
FXUS62 KFFC 211746
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE STATES TODAY...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW
GA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
TODAY...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NW CWFA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE FROM
THE NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY
NOTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
WEEK...AND WITH ONLY MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK
SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FOR THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT BUT GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT MVFR BY AROUND 14Z TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND MVFR ON TUESDAY.


41

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  57  77  54 /   0  10  60  20
ATLANTA         77  60  75  55 /   0  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     74  54  69  48 /   0  10  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    78  58  75  52 /   0  20  70  10
COLUMBUS        79  61  77  57 /   0  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     76  57  75  52 /   0  10  70  20
MACON           78  57  83  56 /   0   5  50  20
ROME            79  58  75  50 /   0  30  70  10
PEACHTREE CITY  78  57  75  53 /   0  10  60  20
VIDALIA         77  57  83  60 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS62 KFFC 211127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE STATES TODAY...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW
GA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
TODAY...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NW CWFA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE FROM
THE NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY
NOTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
WEEK...AND WITH ONLY MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK
SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY...AS THEY SWITCH OVER TO THE S/SW.
SINCE SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...THE DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE AT
TIMES. PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE TAFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  57  77  54 /   0  10  60  20
ATLANTA         77  60  75  55 /   0  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     74  54  69  48 /   0  10  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    78  58  75  52 /   0  20  70  10
COLUMBUS        79  61  77  57 /   0  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     76  57  75  52 /   0  10  70  20
MACON           78  57  83  56 /   0   5  50  20
ROME            79  58  75  50 /   0  30  70  10
PEACHTREE CITY  78  57  75  53 /   0  10  60  20
VIDALIA         77  57  83  60 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KFFC 210815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE STATES TODAY...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW
GA TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA
DURING THE DAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
TODAY...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NW CWFA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE FROM
THE NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY
NOTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
WEEK...AND WITH ONLY MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK
SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z-06Z WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WED AND THU KEEP THE
AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ND BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAT
BY 00Z FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS STATES WED AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER DEEPENS AND MOVES NE TO THE GREAT LAKE STATES THU AFTERNOON
WITH THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BY 12Z FRI.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM
THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.THERE
IS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN SAT MORNING WHICH
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE FIRST ONE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD PROGRESS
FROM E TO SE...THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL BE AOB
10KT...SO WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  57  77  54 /   0  10  60  20
ATLANTA         77  60  75  55 /   0  10  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     74  54  69  48 /   0  10  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    78  58  75  52 /   0  20  70  10
COLUMBUS        79  61  77  57 /   0  10  60  20
GAINESVILLE     76  57  75  52 /   0  10  70  20
MACON           78  57  83  56 /   0   5  50  20
ROME            79  58  75  50 /   0  30  70  10
PEACHTREE CITY  78  57  75  53 /   0  10  60  20
VIDALIA         77  57  83  60 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA







000
FXUS62 KFFC 210522
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...

MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS BUT WOULD AMOUNT TO
NO WORDING CHANGES IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS. HOURLY TEMPS WERE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL CURVE IS SETTLING DOWN
NOW. NO UPDATES TO PRODUCTS ANTICIPATED.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD PROGREES
FROM E TO SE...THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL BE AOB
10KT...SO WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  54  80  52 /   0  10  70  20
ATLANTA         75  59  77  53 /   0  10  70  20
BLAIRSVILLE     74  52  71  47 /   0  30  70  10
CARTERSVILLE    75  55  75  50 /   0  20  70  10
COLUMBUS        78  57  78  57 /   0  10  70  20
GAINESVILLE     74  56  75  51 /   0  20  70  10
MACON           77  53  80  55 /   0   5  60  20
ROME            76  55  74  51 /   0  30  70  10
PEACHTREE CITY  76  54  77  51 /   0  10  70  20
VIDALIA         77  54  81  59 /   0   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS62 KFFC 210232 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS BUT WOULD AMOUNT TO
NO WORDING CHANGES IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS. HOURLY TEMPS WERE A LITTLE
WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT LOOKS LIKE DIURNAL CURVE IS SETTLING DOWN
NOW. NO UPDATES TO PRODUCTS ANTICIPATED.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS STILL HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
5KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT AROUND NW AND W ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. CURRENT TIMING IS AROUND 17Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KFFC 202330 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS STILL HOVERING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
5KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT AROUND NW AND W ON
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. CURRENT TIMING IS AROUND 17Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KFFC 201937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRIER AIR HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE CWA AND THINK THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY 06Z. HAVE KEPT POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE ATLANTA TO ATHENS AREAS
MONDAY  NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY INDICATED MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS UP ON TUESDAY TO...LIKELY(60-70%)...FOR PORTIONS OF
N AND CENTRAL GA AS AMBLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED
LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE. ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS
INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL
KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRI SYSTEM THAN THE TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP SKIES
CLEAR EXCEPT THE AREA CSG TO MCN. EXPECT SOME CEILINGS AROUND
035-045 TO LINGER THERE UNTIL AROUND 00Z...THEN CLEARING. WINDS
REMAINING EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
22KT UNTIL 00Z THEN DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TURN WINDS
TO THE WEST BY 15Z TO 17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON CLOUDS DISSIPATING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  77  54  80 /   0   0  10  70
ATLANTA         51  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  70
BLAIRSVILLE     43  74  52  71 /   0   0  30  70
CARTERSVILLE    47  75  55  75 /   0   0  20  70
COLUMBUS        50  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  70
GAINESVILLE     49  74  56  75 /   0   0  20  70
MACON           46  77  53  80 /   5   0   5  60
ROME            47  76  55  74 /   0   0  30  70
PEACHTREE CITY  45  76  54  77 /   0   0  10  70
VIDALIA         50  77  54  81 /   5   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41







000
FXUS62 KFFC 201753
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR
EXCEPT THE AREA CSG TO MCN. EXPECT SOME CEILINGS AROUND 035-045 TO
LINGER THERE UNTIL AROUND 00Z...THEN CLEARING. WINDS REMAINING EAST
TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 22KT UNTIL 00Z
THEN DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TURN WINDS TO THE WEST BY
15Z TO 17Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM TO HIGH ON CLOUDS DISSIPATING
ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE













000
FXUS62 KFFC 201412
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.


41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT JUST SOUTH OF
THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WILL GO WITH VFR FOR ATL TERMINALS AND AHN AS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IFR AND MVFR CIG MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR THEM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE
MOMENT AT ALL SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID
MORNING BUT ONLY LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF
AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE










000
FXUS62 KFFC 201119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT JUST SOUTH OF
THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.
WILL GO WITH VFR FOR ATL TERMINALS AND AHN AS TREND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IFR AND MVFR CIG MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR THEM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE
MOMENT AT ALL SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID
MORNING BUT ONLY LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF
AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







000
FXUS62 KFFC 200830
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
430 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OFF THE
FLORID COAST FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF STACKED UPPER LOW WHICH IS IN A
SIMILAR POSITION. WITH DNVA ON BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL
AS REDUCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT RAIN HAS
ABATED WITH RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP IS GREATLY REDUCED...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS WITH OVERCAST
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH WHAT LITTLE PRECIP
THERE IS COMING TO AN END. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SUN OVER ALL
LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS.

WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR.
SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
ALLOWING FOR MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z TUE.
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LEES INSTABILITY
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SEEN. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR WED AND THU. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY FRI AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE FRI SYSTEM THAN THE
TUESDAY ONE BUT ITS SHOWING THERE SHOWING LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SE HOW THINGS DEVELOP

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
AXIS OF NORTHERN EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE ATL TERMINALS THIS MORNING MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST 4 HOURS UNTIL MORE OF
A TREND IS ESTABLISHED AND THEN DECIDE ON PREDOMINANT VFR OR MVFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIG MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
FOR MCN AND CSG AND CARRY THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THEM THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HAVE ABATED FOR THE MOMENT AT ALL
SITES BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTS BY MID MORNING BUT ONLY
LASTING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP OFF AGAIN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  45  75  57 /  20   0   5  10
ATLANTA         69  50  73  59 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     71  45  72  53 /   0   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    73  48  74  55 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        71  49  77  59 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     69  48  73  58 /   0   5   0  20
MACON           65  45  77  55 /  10   0   5   5
ROME            74  47  75  56 /   0   5   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  44  75  56 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         65  51  77  56 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE







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