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000
FXUS62 KFFC 221955
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY TUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THOUGHTS ON SVR STORMS TUES THRU
WED. ONLY NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST UPDATE IS 12Z ECMWF WHICH
SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TUES BUT INSTABILITY DROPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN...SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS. INSTABILITY
AND 0-1KM SHEAR A LITTLE WEAKER THAN GFS AS WELL.

DERIVED MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM BLEND OF HOURLY TEMP GUIDANCE WITH
MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO MET/NAM THAN MAV/GFS.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLY THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST OF NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... EXCEPT MAYBE
SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS... COUPLED WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE INDICATES THE GREATER SNOW CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SOME LIGHT DUSTING MAY BE POSSIBLE. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT... THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY... RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST
10 TO 15 MPH WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE... SO NOT EXPECTING
A SHARP COOL DOWN... WITH HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY HOLDING IN THE
50S... AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S DESPITE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LONG RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON A WEEKEND COLD FRONT... WITH THE
PREFERRED GFS BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON- SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING
RIDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE MUCH SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF GENERATES A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT THAT TRACKS ACROSS AL AND CENTRAL TN EARLY ON
SUNDAY... DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY... DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
BLEND WITH A CHANCE OF POPS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW... BUT IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT... MAY HAVE TO ADD
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND.

39

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST QPF A LITTLE HIGHER OVER NE GA THAN PREV FCSTS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT RAIN TO FALL AT MORE STEADY PACE WITH THE HEAVIEST RATE
AROUND 1 INCH FROM 00-06Z TUES EVENING. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND
2 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT THRU WED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NOT
PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE... NEAR TERM FCST STILL ON TRACK. WEDGE STILL VERY STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON SO LOW CLOUDS HERE TO STAY TODAY.

12Z LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS INDICATING CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING UP
AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY OVER MIDDLE GA. BY LATE TUES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ESP NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER NORTH GA. LINES OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM
MIDNIGHT ON. DID NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO OMINOUS LOOKING IN
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...BUT CAN NEVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN WITH
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION. EXPERIMENTAL SHERB INDEX WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO CORRELATE WELL WITH TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS IN HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS ONLY INDICATING MAX
VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.9 TUES THRU WED. TYPICALLY NEED VALUES OVER
1.0 TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE.

12Z GFS SIG TOR PARAMETER /STP/ VALUES HIGHEST 18Z TUES /AROUND
2-2.5/ WHEN GFS HAS HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES...HOWEVER GFS ALSO SHOWS
WEDGE ERODING WAY TO FAST WITH SFC WINDS MORE SLY AND SELY THAN IS
LIKELY. NAM STP VALUES DO NOT COME UP AS MUCH AS GFS TONIGHT OR
TUES MORNING.

CIPS ANALOG FORECASTS COURTESY ST LOUIS UNIV VALID 36 AND 48HRS
SHOW ONLY 3 TO 4 OUT OF TOP 15 MATCHING EVENTS /ABOUT 20-25PCT/
HAD *ANY* SEVERE WX IN THE AREA. BUT OF THOSE 3 OR 4...THERE WERE
TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN OR MINOR FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. BASED ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND ANY EXPECTED
6HR QPF NO MORE THAN 2-2.5 INCHES MAINLY OVER MIDDLE GA THRU THE
EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBYS TODAY BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO
LIFR AFTER 03Z. WEDGE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS AT LEAST. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM E TO SE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  51  50  62 /  70 100 100  90
ATLANTA         44  54  53  63 /  70 100 100  90
BLAIRSVILLE     41  52  50  58 /  60 100 100  90
CARTERSVILLE    45  54  52  63 /  60 100 100  80
COLUMBUS        51  65  61  67 /  60 100 100  80
GAINESVILLE     40  49  47  59 /  70 100 100  90
MACON           48  63  62  66 /  60 100 100  90
ROME            46  54  52  63 /  70 100 100  80
PEACHTREE CITY  45  58  57  63 /  60 100 100  90
VIDALIA         51  68  63  67 /  50 100 100  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221955
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY TUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THOUGHTS ON SVR STORMS TUES THRU
WED. ONLY NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST UPDATE IS 12Z ECMWF WHICH
SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TUES BUT INSTABILITY DROPPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN...SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS. INSTABILITY
AND 0-1KM SHEAR A LITTLE WEAKER THAN GFS AS WELL.

DERIVED MAX AND MIN TEMPS FROM BLEND OF HOURLY TEMP GUIDANCE WITH
MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO MET/NAM THAN MAV/GFS.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLY THROUGH MID
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST OF NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING... EXCEPT MAYBE
SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS... COUPLED WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE INDICATES THE GREATER SNOW CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SOME LIGHT DUSTING MAY BE POSSIBLE. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT... THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY... RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST
10 TO 15 MPH WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED AIR MASS IS MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE... SO NOT EXPECTING
A SHARP COOL DOWN... WITH HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY HOLDING IN THE
50S... AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S DESPITE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LONG RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY ON A WEEKEND COLD FRONT... WITH THE
PREFERRED GFS BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON- SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING
RIDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
THE MUCH SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF GENERATES A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT THAT TRACKS ACROSS AL AND CENTRAL TN EARLY ON
SUNDAY... DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY... DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
BLEND WITH A CHANCE OF POPS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW... BUT IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT... MAY HAVE TO ADD
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ZONES SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND.

39

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST QPF A LITTLE HIGHER OVER NE GA THAN PREV FCSTS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT RAIN TO FALL AT MORE STEADY PACE WITH THE HEAVIEST RATE
AROUND 1 INCH FROM 00-06Z TUES EVENING. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND
2 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT THRU WED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT NOT
PLANNING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 125 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE... NEAR TERM FCST STILL ON TRACK. WEDGE STILL VERY STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON SO LOW CLOUDS HERE TO STAY TODAY.

12Z LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS INDICATING CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING UP
AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY OVER MIDDLE GA. BY LATE TUES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ESP NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER NORTH GA. LINES OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM
MIDNIGHT ON. DID NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO OMINOUS LOOKING IN
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...BUT CAN NEVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN WITH
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION. EXPERIMENTAL SHERB INDEX WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO CORRELATE WELL WITH TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS IN HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS ONLY INDICATING MAX
VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.9 TUES THRU WED. TYPICALLY NEED VALUES OVER
1.0 TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE.

12Z GFS SIG TOR PARAMETER /STP/ VALUES HIGHEST 18Z TUES /AROUND
2-2.5/ WHEN GFS HAS HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES...HOWEVER GFS ALSO SHOWS
WEDGE ERODING WAY TO FAST WITH SFC WINDS MORE SLY AND SELY THAN IS
LIKELY. NAM STP VALUES DO NOT COME UP AS MUCH AS GFS TONIGHT OR
TUES MORNING.

CIPS ANALOG FORECASTS COURTESY ST LOUIS UNIV VALID 36 AND 48HRS
SHOW ONLY 3 TO 4 OUT OF TOP 15 MATCHING EVENTS /ABOUT 20-25PCT/
HAD *ANY* SEVERE WX IN THE AREA. BUT OF THOSE 3 OR 4...THERE WERE
TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN OR MINOR FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. BASED ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND ANY EXPECTED
6HR QPF NO MORE THAN 2-2.5 INCHES MAINLY OVER MIDDLE GA THRU THE
EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBYS TODAY BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO
LIFR AFTER 03Z. WEDGE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS AT LEAST. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM E TO SE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          42  51  50  62 /  70 100 100  90
ATLANTA         44  54  53  63 /  70 100 100  90
BLAIRSVILLE     41  52  50  58 /  60 100 100  90
CARTERSVILLE    45  54  52  63 /  60 100 100  80
COLUMBUS        51  65  61  67 /  60 100 100  80
GAINESVILLE     40  49  47  59 /  70 100 100  90
MACON           48  63  62  66 /  60 100 100  90
ROME            46  54  52  63 /  70 100 100  80
PEACHTREE CITY  45  58  57  63 /  60 100 100  90
VIDALIA         51  68  63  67 /  50 100 100  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221825 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY TUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FCST STILL ON TRACK. WEDGE STILL VERY STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON SO LOW CLOUDS HERE TO STAY TODAY.

12Z LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS INDICATING CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING UP
AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY OVER MIDDLE GA. BY LATE TUES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ESP NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER NORTH GA. LINES OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM
MIDNIGHT ON. DID NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO OMINOUS LOOKING IN
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...BUT CAN NEVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN WITH
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION. EXPERIMENTAL SHERB INDEX WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO CORRELATE WELL WITH TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS IN HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS ONLY INDICATING MAX
VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.9 TUES THRU WED. TYPICALLY NEED VALUES OVER
1.0 TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE.

12Z GFS SIG TOR PARAMETER /STP/ VALUES HIGHEST 18Z TUES /AROUND
2-2.5/ WHEN GFS HAS HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES...HOWEVER GFS ALSO SHOWS
WEDGE ERODING WAY TO FAST WITH SFC WINDS MORE SLY AND SELY THAN IS
LIKELY. NAM STP VALUES DO NOT COME UP AS MUCH AS GFS TONIGHT OR
TUES MORNING.

CIPS ANALOG FORECASTS COURTESY ST LOUIS UNIV VALID 36 AND 48HRS
SHOW ONLY 3 TO 4 OUT OF TOP 15 MATCHING EVENTS /ABOUT 20-25PCT/
HAD *ANY* SEVERE WX IN THE AREA. BUT OF THOSE 3 OR 4...THERE WERE
TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN OR MINOR FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. BASED ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND ANY EXPECTED
6HR QPF NO MORE THAN 2-2.5 INCHES MAINLY OVER MIDDLE GA THRU THE
EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA.
SIR WX THREAT STILL POSSIBLE...AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH THREAT SPREADING NORTH TUES AFTERNOON AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HOWEVER...12Z NAM AND GFS DECREASE
INSTABILITY AFTER 18Z TUES. MLCAPE DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND MUCAPE
DECREASES TO 100-300 J/KG AS MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN MOVES
IN AND SFC DEWPOINTS DROP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

CANT RULE OUT STORMS TONIGHT AS LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EXPECTED AND SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. BASED ON MODEL PROGS THOUGH
WEDGE SEEMS TOO STRONG FOR ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION TONIGHT EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SRN COUNTIES.

INSTABILITY TRIES TO RECOVER TUES NIGHT AND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
0-1KM BULK SHEAR MAG QUITE STRONG...35-50KTS ON 12Z NAM...30-40KTS
ON 12Z GFS.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBYS TODAY BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO
LIFR AFTER 03Z. WEDGE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS AT LEAST. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM E TO SE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  43  51  50 /  50  70 100 100
ATLANTA         49  46  56  54 /  40  70 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     47  43  53  50 /  40  60 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    50  46  55  53 /  30  70 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  53  66  61 /  50  70 100 100
GAINESVILLE     46  42  50  48 /  40  70 100 100
MACON           53  50  63  62 /  60  70 100 100
ROME            51  47  57  53 /  30  70 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  50  47  60  58 /  40  70 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  64 /  90  40 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221825 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY TUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FCST STILL ON TRACK. WEDGE STILL VERY STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON SO LOW CLOUDS HERE TO STAY TODAY.

12Z LOCAL WRF MODEL RUNS INDICATING CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING UP
AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY OVER MIDDLE GA. BY LATE TUES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ESP NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT OVER NORTH GA. LINES OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM
MIDNIGHT ON. DID NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO OMINOUS LOOKING IN
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...BUT CAN NEVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN WITH
HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION. EXPERIMENTAL SHERB INDEX WHICH
HAS BEEN SHOWN TO CORRELATE WELL WITH TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS IN HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS ONLY INDICATING MAX
VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.9 TUES THRU WED. TYPICALLY NEED VALUES OVER
1.0 TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE.

12Z GFS SIG TOR PARAMETER /STP/ VALUES HIGHEST 18Z TUES /AROUND
2-2.5/ WHEN GFS HAS HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES...HOWEVER GFS ALSO SHOWS
WEDGE ERODING WAY TO FAST WITH SFC WINDS MORE SLY AND SELY THAN IS
LIKELY. NAM STP VALUES DO NOT COME UP AS MUCH AS GFS TONIGHT OR
TUES MORNING.

CIPS ANALOG FORECASTS COURTESY ST LOUIS UNIV VALID 36 AND 48HRS
SHOW ONLY 3 TO 4 OUT OF TOP 15 MATCHING EVENTS /ABOUT 20-25PCT/
HAD *ANY* SEVERE WX IN THE AREA. BUT OF THOSE 3 OR 4...THERE WERE
TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN OR MINOR FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FALL LINE. BASED ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND ANY EXPECTED
6HR QPF NO MORE THAN 2-2.5 INCHES MAINLY OVER MIDDLE GA THRU THE
EVENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA.
SIR WX THREAT STILL POSSIBLE...AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH THREAT SPREADING NORTH TUES AFTERNOON AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HOWEVER...12Z NAM AND GFS DECREASE
INSTABILITY AFTER 18Z TUES. MLCAPE DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND MUCAPE
DECREASES TO 100-300 J/KG AS MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN MOVES
IN AND SFC DEWPOINTS DROP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

CANT RULE OUT STORMS TONIGHT AS LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EXPECTED AND SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. BASED ON MODEL PROGS THOUGH
WEDGE SEEMS TOO STRONG FOR ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION TONIGHT EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SRN COUNTIES.

INSTABILITY TRIES TO RECOVER TUES NIGHT AND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
0-1KM BULK SHEAR MAG QUITE STRONG...35-50KTS ON 12Z NAM...30-40KTS
ON 12Z GFS.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/VSBYS TODAY BEFORE GOING BACK DOWN TO
LIFR AFTER 03Z. WEDGE PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS AT LEAST. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM E TO SE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 5-10KTS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  43  51  50 /  50  70 100 100
ATLANTA         49  46  56  54 /  40  70 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     47  43  53  50 /  40  60 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    50  46  55  53 /  30  70 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  53  66  61 /  50  70 100 100
GAINESVILLE     46  42  50  48 /  40  70 100 100
MACON           53  50  63  62 /  60  70 100 100
ROME            51  47  57  53 /  30  70 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  50  47  60  58 /  40  70 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  64 /  90  40 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...SNELSON





000
FXUS62 KFFC 221628 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1128 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY TUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST FCST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA.
SVR WX THREAT STILL POSSIBLE...AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH THREAT SPREADING NORTH TUES AFTERNOON AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HOWEVER...12Z NAM AND GFS DECREASE
INSTABILITY AFTER 18Z TUES. BLCAPE DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND MUCAPE
DECREASES TO 100-300 J/KG AS MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
MOVES IN AND SFC DEWPOINTS DROP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

CANT RULE OUT STORMS TONIGHT AS LACK OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EXPECTED AND SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE. BASED ON MODEL PROGS THOUGH
WEDGE SEEMS TOO STRONG FOR ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION TONIGHT EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SRN COUNTIES.

INSTABILTY TRIES TO RECOVER TUES NIGHT AND ALL DAY WEDNESDAY BUT
0-1KM BULK SHEAR MAG QUITE STRONG...35-50KTS ON 12Z NAM...30-40KTS
ON 12Z GFS.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS STILL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS
EAST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. AT IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW BUT
THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          47  43  51  50 /  50  70 100 100
ATLANTA         49  46  56  54 /  40  70 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     47  43  53  50 /  40  60 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    50  46  55  53 /  30  70 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  53  66  61 /  50  70 100 100
GAINESVILLE     46  42  50  48 /  40  70 100 100
MACON           53  50  63  62 /  60  70 100 100
ROME            51  47  57  53 /  30  70 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  50  47  60  58 /  40  70 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  64 /  90  40 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS STILL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS
EAST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. AT IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW BUT
THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  47  45 /  50  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  51  50 /  30  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  47  44 /  40  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  49  49 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  52  64  60 /  30  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  45  45 /  40  60 100 100
MACON           53  49  62  60 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  53  51 /  20  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  55  53 /  30  50 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  63 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 221140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS STILL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS
EAST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. AT IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW BUT
THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  47  45 /  50  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  51  50 /  30  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  47  44 /  40  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  49  49 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  52  64  60 /  30  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  45  45 /  40  60 100 100
MACON           53  49  62  60 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  53  51 /  20  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  55  53 /  30  50 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  63 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220922
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. BASICALLY LOOKING AT IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  47  45 /  50  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  51  50 /  30  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  47  44 /  40  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  49  49 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  52  64  60 /  30  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  45  45 /  40  60 100 100
MACON           53  49  62  60 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  53  51 /  20  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  55  53 /  30  50 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  63 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220922
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
422 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS IT
OUT. -RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND EAST WINDS.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA
TODAY AS RAIN BAN HAS SET UP SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. POPS ARE
SOMEWHAT LOW TODAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS...BUT
DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TOP
BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GA MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S BUT SOME
AREA IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 60 AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS STILL KEEPING SBCAPE
VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...WITH MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THE 200 TO 300 J/KG RANGE. THIS INSTABILITY
PUSHES INTO THE THE ATL AREA TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO GA TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

01


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS
MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. NO
HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED YET BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AND ALSO A BIT FASTER. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. BASICALLY LOOKING AT IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  47  45 /  50  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  51  50 /  30  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  47  44 /  40  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  49  49 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        56  52  64  60 /  30  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  45  45 /  40  60 100 100
MACON           53  49  62  60 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  53  51 /  20  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  55  53 /  30  50 100 100
VIDALIA         55  52  70  63 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220720
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...
MAINLY CONCERNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT GRIDS REMAIN
ON TRACK AS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. BASICALLY LOOKING AT IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  48  48 /  60  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  52  52 /  40  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  48  47 /  50  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  50  50 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        58  52  65  58 /  40  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  46  46 /  50  60 100 100
MACON           54  49  63  58 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  54  53 /  30  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  56  54 /  40  50 100 100
VIDALIA         57  52  71  60 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220720
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...
MAINLY CONCERNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT GRIDS REMAIN
ON TRACK AS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
WEDGE IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE STATE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. BASICALLY LOOKING AT IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS THE WEDGE IS HEAR TO STAY
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 6-12KT RANGE. VSBYS MAINLY IFR RIGHT NOW
BUT THEY SHOULD GET INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  43  48  48 /  60  60 100 100
ATLANTA         51  45  52  52 /  40  50 100 100
BLAIRSVILLE     49  42  48  47 /  50  50 100 100
CARTERSVILLE    52  45  50  50 /  30  40 100 100
COLUMBUS        58  52  65  58 /  40  50 100 100
GAINESVILLE     48  42  46  46 /  50  60 100 100
MACON           54  49  63  58 /  50  50 100 100
ROME            53  46  54  53 /  30  40 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY  52  46  56  54 /  40  50 100 100
VIDALIA         57  52  71  60 /  70  50 100 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220224 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...
MAINLY CONCERNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT GRIDS REMAIN
ON TRACK AS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

MOST AREAS MVFR CURRENTLY WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH PREDOMINANT
LIFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z. MOST AREAS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR OR MVFR
BY 18Z. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA 06Z-
12Z...REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS 3-8KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         41  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     38  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    40  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        43  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     39  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           43  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            40  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  40  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         44  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220224 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...
MAINLY CONCERNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT GRIDS REMAIN
ON TRACK AS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

MOST AREAS MVFR CURRENTLY WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH PREDOMINANT
LIFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z. MOST AREAS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR OR MVFR
BY 18Z. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA 06Z-
12Z...REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS 3-8KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         41  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     38  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    40  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        43  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     39  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           43  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            40  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  40  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         44  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 220224 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...
MAINLY CONCERNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT GRIDS REMAIN
ON TRACK AS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

MOST AREAS MVFR CURRENTLY WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH PREDOMINANT
LIFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z. MOST AREAS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR OR MVFR
BY 18Z. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA 06Z-
12Z...REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS 3-8KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         41  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     38  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    40  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        43  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     39  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           43  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            40  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  40  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         44  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 220224 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
924 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS...
MAINLY CONCERNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT GRIDS REMAIN
ON TRACK AS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

MOST AREAS MVFR CURRENTLY WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH PREDOMINANT
LIFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z. MOST AREAS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR OR MVFR
BY 18Z. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA 06Z-
12Z...REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS 3-8KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         41  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     38  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    40  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        43  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     39  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           43  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            40  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  40  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         44  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 212324 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

MOST AREAS MVFR CURRENTLY WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH PREDOMINANT
LIFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z. MOST AREAS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR OR MVFR
BY 18Z. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA 06Z-
12Z...REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS 3-8KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         43  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    42  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        45  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     40  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           45  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            41  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  41  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         47  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 212324 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

MOST AREAS MVFR CURRENTLY WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z WITH PREDOMINANT
LIFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z. MOST AREAS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR OR MVFR
BY 18Z. PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA 06Z-
12Z...REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. EAST WINDS 3-8KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         43  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    42  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        45  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     40  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           45  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            41  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  41  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         47  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR AT TAF TIME. EXPECT SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS -DZ
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR VSBY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT
BASICALLY IFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EVEN ATL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS E GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         43  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    42  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        45  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     40  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           45  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            41  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  41  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         47  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR AT TAF TIME. EXPECT SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS -DZ
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR VSBY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT
BASICALLY IFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EVEN ATL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS E GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         43  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    42  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        45  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     40  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           45  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            41  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  41  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         47  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR AT TAF TIME. EXPECT SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS -DZ
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR VSBY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT
BASICALLY IFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EVEN ATL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS E GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         43  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    42  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        45  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     40  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           45  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            41  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  41  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         47  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211937
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRIZZLY AND DREARY SHORT-TERM IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE EXTENDED.
PROLONGED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA HAS BEGUN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN
DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL CAD ONSET...WITH DAMMING BECOMING
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPANDING NORTH WITH THE
INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD /WELL...COOL/ DOME TONIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS FOR A HIGH-POP
LOW-QPF SITUATION...BUT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION.

POPS LOWER SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS FIRST WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE EXITS
BUT DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LATE INTO THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL ADD SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT DAMMING REMAINS FIRM AT LEAST
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFTING OF THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT TO ALLOW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA TO WORK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR STARTING LATE MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE FRONT MAKES IT...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA BUT
NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE EXTREME SOUTH. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED TONIGHT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON LOCATION OF
THE WEDGE FRONT...BUT OBVIOUSLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL THERE.

ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS SBCAPE VALUES PRETTY MUCH 0...BUT MUCAPE VALUES
DO INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXPANDING
NORTH WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. MUCAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN
200-300 J/KG SPREAD TOWARD THE METRO AREA TOWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER EXTREME SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WANT TO REITERATE THAT AGAIN THIS IS NOT SURFACE-BASED
CAPE SO BASICALLY ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED RUMBLES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER INCREASING RAIN SHIELD.

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEEP PLAINS TROUGH HAS CUTOFF IN TO A MID-
LEVEL LOW WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. POPS INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
INTO THE EXTENDED. SEE BELOW.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT WITHIN THEMSELVES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE THEREFORE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN TWO WAVES. THE
FIRST ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL GA SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND FEEL THIS WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN TUESDAY.
NORTH GA WILL BE IN THE COLD DOME ON TUESDAY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...THE COLD DOME SHOULD KEEP NORTH GA OUT OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LINE OF
TRW...MAINLY A QLCS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FRONT/STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU. WITH A MORE PROMINENT WEDGE TUESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A DRIER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE BROUGHT DOWN THE POPS JUST A LITTLE. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR AT TAF TIME. EXPECT SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS -DZ
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR VSBY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT
BASICALLY IFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EVEN ATL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS E GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  48  43  48 /  70  60  60 100
ATLANTA         43  51  45  52 /  40  40  50 100
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  42  48 /  60  50  50 100
CARTERSVILLE    42  52  45  50 /  30  30  40 100
COLUMBUS        45  58  52  65 /  50  40  50 100
GAINESVILLE     40  48  42  46 /  60  50  60 100
MACON           45  54  49  63 /  70  50  50 100
ROME            41  53  46  54 /  30  30  40 100
PEACHTREE CITY  41  52  46  56 /  40  40  50 100
VIDALIA         47  57  52  71 /  80  70  50 100

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211744 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS DOWN
SOUTH...PRECIP NOT SPREADING NORTH QUITE AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED
SO KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL UPWARD TREND LATER TODAY. ADDED MORE FOG TO
THE GRIDS AS WELL AND INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME HOLES SHOWING UP. TEMPERATURES ARE
LAGGING BEHIND THE FORECAST WARMING TREND BUT AM HESITANT TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHOUT GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON SKY TRENDS...SO
NO CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. WILL SEND A PRODUCT REFRESH SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.

01

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NORTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR AT TAF TIME. EXPECT SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS -DZ
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR VSBY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT
BASICALLY IFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EVEN ATL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS E GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  30  60  40  40
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  10  40  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  20  40  40  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  40  60  40  40
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  10  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 211744 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS DOWN
SOUTH...PRECIP NOT SPREADING NORTH QUITE AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED
SO KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL UPWARD TREND LATER TODAY. ADDED MORE FOG TO
THE GRIDS AS WELL AND INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME HOLES SHOWING UP. TEMPERATURES ARE
LAGGING BEHIND THE FORECAST WARMING TREND BUT AM HESITANT TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHOUT GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON SKY TRENDS...SO
NO CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. WILL SEND A PRODUCT REFRESH SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.

01

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NORTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR AT TAF TIME. EXPECT SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS DROP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS -DZ
DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR VSBY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR IMPROVEMENT LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT
BASICALLY IFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...EVEN ATL
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS E GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  30  60  40  40
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  20  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  10  40  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  20  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  20  40  40  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  40  60  40  40
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  10  20  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  20  30  30  40
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  50  70  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211529 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1029 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS DOWN
SOUTH...PRECIP NOT SPREADING NORTH QUITE AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED
SO KEPT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL UPWARD TREND LATER TODAY. ADDED MORE FOG TO
THE GRIDS AS WELL AND INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME HOLES SHOWING UP. TEMPERATURES ARE
LAGGING BEHIND THE FORECAST WARMING TREND BUT AM HESITANT TO LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITHOUT GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON SKY TRENDS...SO
NO CHANGE THERE FOR NOW. WILL SEND A PRODUCT REFRESH SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.

01

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NORTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41

17

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW
CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT THEY WILL LIFT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL
SEE RAIN BY 00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY.
VSBYS WILL BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE
MVFR TO VFR RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  30  60  60  50
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  20  30  40  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  40  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  50  60  50  50
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  20  30  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  30  50  50  50
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 211145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.

01

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NRTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK WEDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW
CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF
PERIOD BUT THEY WILL LIFT INTO THE MVFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL
SEE RAIN BY 00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY.
VSBYS WILL BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE
MVFR TO VFR RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  50
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  40  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  40  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  50  60  50  50
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  20  30  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  50  50
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210933
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.


01


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NRTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41


&&



17

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  50
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  40  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  40  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  50  60  50  50
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  20  30  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  50  50
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210933
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
433 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY SO THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF IS PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY
SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GA AS
WEDGE WILL BE FIRMLY INPLACE ACROSS N GA. WITH THIS WEDGE BUILDING
IN MAX TEMPS TO DAY WILL BE AN ISSUE. LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET THAT WARM
AS NOT SURE JUST HOW DEEP THE WEDGE IS YET.


01


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STILL WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
BRING RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
NORTH AND EAST. A FEW SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE
BUILDS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT BE JUST
INTO NRTHWEST GA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN EXITING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX ON RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTS
EASTWARD. DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS.

41


&&



17

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  50
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     51  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  40  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  52 /  40  50  50  50
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  50
MACON           54  45  57  48 /  50  60  50  50
ROME            52  41  53  46 /  20  30  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  50  50
VIDALIA         52  48  60  52 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210620
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  60
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     49  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  53 /  40  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  60
MACON           54  45  57  51 /  50  60  50  60
ROME            52  41  52  46 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         53  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 210620
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO LIFR EXPECTED BY
DAY BREAK FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
GET INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
EAST AT 10KT OR LESS WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. MCN AND CSG WILL SEE RAIN BY
00Z MON AS DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO S GA TODAY. VSBYS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN ALL DAY BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR
RANGE. WILL SEE SOME IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  41  50  43 /  40  60  60  60
ATLANTA         52  43  52  47 /  30  50  30  60
BLAIRSVILLE     49  39  48  42 /  20  60  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    52  42  52  45 /  30  30  20  50
COLUMBUS        55  46  59  53 /  40  50  40  60
GAINESVILLE     50  41  49  43 /  30  50  50  60
MACON           54  45  57  51 /  50  60  50  60
ROME            52  41  52  46 /  20  30  20  50
PEACHTREE CITY  52  42  55  47 /  40  50  30  60
VIDALIA         53  48  60  55 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210019 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /  10  40  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /  10  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /  10  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  30  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /  10  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /  10  40  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 210019 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
719 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPED POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SOME FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON
INCREASING COVERAGE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS. PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT AND MUCH IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE...HOWEVER OUR POPS WERE
VERY LOW FOR THE EVENING. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND SKIES
AS WELL...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /  10  40  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /  10  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /  10  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  30  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /  10  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /  10  40  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 202344 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 202344 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

ALL AREAS MVFR OR LOWER CURRENTLY AND I EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE IFR
OR LOWER BY 06Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 8KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH ON MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF TRANSITIONS BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AND LIFR PERIODS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201935
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH VERY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND BEGINS TO DAM DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON
IN A DIABATICALLY-ENHANCED CLASSICAL DAMMING SCENARIO. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS DEEPENING DOWN THE PLAINS PROGGED TO IMPACT
US MID-WEEK.

AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WHILE ADDITIONAL AND MORE
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO
NORTH GEORGIA BUT AT BEST IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOLIDLY THE CAD ENTRENCHES ITSELF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE CAD REALLY SETS UP IN EARNEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE TEMPS AT OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES...LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MAV VS MET
VALUES /00Z ECS COOLER STILL/.

MUCAPE VALUES NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP
WORDING AT JUST RAIN FOR NOW. MORE INTERESTING WEATHER EVENT
FROM THE DEEPENING PLAINS TROUGH SETS UP INTO THE EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MADE SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DUE TO CONTINUED
TIMING SHIFTS OF THE MODELS. THE 06Z GFS RUN PUSHED THE TIMING BACK
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS RUN NOW HAS THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
RUN IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO
CURRENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TUESDAY...AND
INCREASE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

17


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  51  41  50 /   5  30  60  60
ATLANTA         43  52  43  52 /   5  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     36  49  39  48 /  10  20  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    36  52  42  52 /  10  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  46  59 /  20  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     38  50  41  49 /   5  30  50  50
MACON           44  54  45  57 /  20  50  60  50
ROME            34  52  41  52 /   5  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  52  42  55 /   5  30  50  30
VIDALIA         46  53  48  60 /  20  60  80  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TDP




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201737 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100   5  30  60
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100   5  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  30
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  50
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  50  60
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100   5  30  50
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201737 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1237 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHES OF IFR CIGS. WILL
CONTINUE TREND WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MVFR EVERYWHERE. CIGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH HINTS AT LIFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS IFR FOG. SOME HINTS AT
LIFR FOG. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVORING THE E SIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF NNW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY ALL 5KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIGS BUT HIGH ON GENERAL TRENDS.
MEDIUM ON VSBY REMAINING 2SM OR GREATER.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100   5  30  60
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100   5  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  30
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  40  50
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  50
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  50  60
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100   5  30  50
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  60  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201536 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 201536 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS MORNING ARE WITH POPS...INCREASED POPS IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED BUT ALSO SPEEDED UP
THE EXIT ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER NORTHERN ZONES
BASED ON TRENDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY BREAKS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK GOOD...PRODUCTS WILL BE REFRESHED
SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 / 100  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 / 100  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  30  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  50  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 / 100  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  70   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 / 100  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  10   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 / 100  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 / 100  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 201127
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN JUST
EAST OF BHM. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND THINKING THEY MAY NOT
GET AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED. THINKING THEY MAY STAY VFR BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ISOLATED AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL.
THINKING THE CEILINGS OVER THE ATL AREA WILL STAY VFR...BUT WILL
MONITOR THOSE LOWER CEILINGS OVER AL TO SEE WHERE THEY GO. VSBYS
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY
14-16Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NE AT 8KT OF LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200810
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200810
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE VERY LOW THIS MORNING SO
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA AND
BEGINS WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER GA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NEXT RAIN MAKER MOVES IN. NEXT SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING SUN
MORNING INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WEDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM INSTABILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM EITHER.

01

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM.

A DAMMED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIKELY TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WITH POPS DECREASING SOME FOR MONDAY.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE MAIN CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT WITH BOTH
MODELS SEEMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A 40-50
KNOT 850MB JET WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. CAPES LOOK TO BE THE 200-800
RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS. THE CAPES DOES NOT A LINE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE STRONG AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

DEPENDING ON TIMING SOME THREAT COULD LINGER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY N GA IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY OVER N GA
WILL BECOME A CHANCE OF FLURRIES LATE NIGHT. IT LOOKS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NO MORE
THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MUCH WETTER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  40 /  70  10  30  80
ATLANTA         53  42  52  43 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  10  20  80
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  40 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  55  46 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  41 /  60   5  30  80
MACON           55  43  54  46 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  54  40 /  50   5  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  10  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  49 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 200646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  42 /  70  20  30  70
ATLANTA         53  42  52  44 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  20  20  60
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  41 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  54  47 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  42 /  60  20  30  70
MACON           55  43  54  47 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  53  41 /  50  10  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  20  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  51 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01





000
FXUS62 KFFC 200646
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECTING THEM TO GET DOWN
INTO MVFR RANGE BY 10-12Z. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN STRONGER SHOWERS . RAIN WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS THE ATL AREA BY 14-16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 18Z. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT WILL TURN
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
8KTS OR LESS SO MAY SEE WIND DIRECTION GOING BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NW AND NE THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  38  51  42 /  70  20  30  70
ATLANTA         53  42  52  44 /  70  10  30  70
BLAIRSVILLE     49  36  50  39 /  50  20  20  60
CARTERSVILLE    53  37  52  41 /  60  10  20  60
COLUMBUS        55  45  54  47 /  90  20  30  70
GAINESVILLE     50  38  50  42 /  60  20  30  70
MACON           55  43  54  47 /  90  20  30  80
ROME            52  35  53  41 /  50  10  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  54  37  52  42 /  80  20  30  70
VIDALIA         56  45  56  51 /  80  20  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200241 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            37  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 200241 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL AND
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        45  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            37  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  40  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 192338 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CIRRUS HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER PUSHING IN. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASING IN ADVANCE
OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT WITH THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT A SURFACE LOW
IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...THOUGH 12Z MODELS DID INCREASE THE TOTALS
JUST A TAD...STILL UNDER 0.5 INCHES EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME AREAS
/ESPECIALLY NORTH GEORGIA/ HARDLY SEEING ANY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WHICH MIGHT SERVE TO CUT OF DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. HAVE
CONTINUED TREND OF CATEGORICAL POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. PRETTY MUCH 0 INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONTINUED ALL RAIN WORDING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BUT
OVERALL JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPS ON SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH
BEGINS DAMMING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF MOISTURE PULLS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED.

WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES BUT ESPECIALLY HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS IT IS...EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT NORMAL
AND LOWS HELD SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OVER FAR N GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM... WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
ANOTHER COOL WEDGE SETTING UP ON SUNDAY AND GETTING OVERRUN WITH A
MOIST MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS GETS ENHANCED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF MAINLY RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE APPEARS TO HOLD STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE STATE AND WARRANT A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...
INSTABILITIES AND ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THIS CHANGES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS AGREE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY... THEN KICKING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT... ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING 200-600 MUCAPE NOSING UP ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
WARRANT ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT SUSPECT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED UPPER FORCING. STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AS INSTABILITIES AND DEEP
SHEAR REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST FOR NOW... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THIS POTENTIAL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE... STRONG UPPER FORCING AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING... BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AIR AND GROUND TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING... BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR MASS TO
DOMINATE MOSTLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
6KT OR LESS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z AND NORTHEAST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT OT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...AND ENDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  51  38  51 /  80  70  20  30
ATLANTA         42  53  42  52 /  80  70  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  49  36  50 /  80  50  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    37  53  37  52 /  80  60  10  20
COLUMBUS        44  55  45  54 / 100  90  20  30
GAINESVILLE     40  50  38  50 /  80  60  20  30
MACON           44  55  43  54 /  90  90  20  30
ROME            36  52  35  53 /  80  50  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  39  54  37  52 /  90  80  20  30
VIDALIA         47  56  45  56 /  80  80  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP





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