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000
FXUS62 KFFC 011137 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN CONUS DURING
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
WEST OF THE STATE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR STILL IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT SHOULD
ERODE SOME TODAY. TEMPS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY YESTERDAY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS BECOME STRONG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT THOUGH OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING EXTREME PW
COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE ON 00Z FFC
SOUNDING. MODEL AND WPC GUIDANCE QPF ALSO KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF CWA.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE TSRA THAN
PREV DAYS ON SAT BUT LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING AGAIN WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON MORNING SHRA AND CLOUDS. MODIFIED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND
FOR TEMPS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP AREAS.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF THE STATE BASED ON TPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN
BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE EUROPEAN WANTING MORE OF A WEAK RIDGE.

HIGHEST POPS FAVORING CENTRAL GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE INTO TUESDAY. POPS THEN FAVORING MORE TOWARD CLIMO
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND
BUT MAY NOT NECESSARILY END AT NIGHT.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 14-15Z. ANY PRECIP THIS
MORNING AFTER 15Z SHOULD BE LIGHT...USED VCSH TO COVER THIS.
BETTER CHC OF SCT SHRA AFTER 18-19Z. SOME CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER
TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT THINK COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION IN TEMPO AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN. COULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER MIDDLE GEORGIA BUT STILL
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA. ANOTHER IFR CIG
EVENT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  84  69 /  50  40  50  50
ATLANTA         84  69  84  70 /  40  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     78  61  78  63 /  60  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  66  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
COLUMBUS        89  72  87  72 /  40  30  50  50
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  50  40
MACON           87  69  85  71 /  40  40  50  50
ROME            85  68  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  86  68  86  68 /  40  40  50  50
VIDALIA         92  73  90  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 011137 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN CONUS DURING
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
WEST OF THE STATE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR STILL IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT SHOULD
ERODE SOME TODAY. TEMPS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY YESTERDAY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS BECOME STRONG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT THOUGH OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING EXTREME PW
COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE ON 00Z FFC
SOUNDING. MODEL AND WPC GUIDANCE QPF ALSO KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF CWA.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE TSRA THAN
PREV DAYS ON SAT BUT LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING AGAIN WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON MORNING SHRA AND CLOUDS. MODIFIED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND
FOR TEMPS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP AREAS.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF THE STATE BASED ON TPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN
BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE EUROPEAN WANTING MORE OF A WEAK RIDGE.

HIGHEST POPS FAVORING CENTRAL GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE INTO TUESDAY. POPS THEN FAVORING MORE TOWARD CLIMO
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND
BUT MAY NOT NECESSARILY END AT NIGHT.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 14-15Z. ANY PRECIP THIS
MORNING AFTER 15Z SHOULD BE LIGHT...USED VCSH TO COVER THIS.
BETTER CHC OF SCT SHRA AFTER 18-19Z. SOME CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER
TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT THINK COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION IN TEMPO AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN. COULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF TSRA OVER MIDDLE GEORGIA BUT STILL
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA. ANOTHER IFR CIG
EVENT LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  84  69 /  50  40  50  50
ATLANTA         84  69  84  70 /  40  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     78  61  78  63 /  60  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  66  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
COLUMBUS        89  72  87  72 /  40  30  50  50
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  50  40
MACON           87  69  85  71 /  40  40  50  50
ROME            85  68  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  86  68  86  68 /  40  40  50  50
VIDALIA         92  73  90  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN CONUS DURING
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
WEST OF THE STATE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR STILL IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT SHOULD
ERODE SOME TODAY. TEMPS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY YESTERDAY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS BECOME STRONG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT THOUGH OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING EXTREME PW
COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE ON 00Z FFC
SOUNDING. MODEL AND WPC GUIDANCE QPF ALSO KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF CWA.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE TSRA THAN
PREV DAYS ON SAT BUT LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING AGAIN WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON MORNING SHRA AND CLOUDS. MODIFIED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND
FOR TEMPS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP AREAS.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF THE STATE BASED ON TPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.


SNELSON

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN
BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE EUROPEAN WANTING MORE OF A WEAK RIDGE.

HIGHEST POPS FAVORING CENTRAL GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE INTO TUESDAY. POPS THEN FAVORING MORE TOWARD CLIMO
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND
BUT MAY NOT NECESSARILY END AT NIGHT.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU 15Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KAHN AND ATL METRO AIRPORTS AS COOL ENE SFC WINDS BRING RAIN
COOLED AND MOIST AIR INTO THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE SOME TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN MIDDLE GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA ONLY AT KCSG AND KMCN. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PROBS OF SHRA OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  84  69 /  50  40  50  50
ATLANTA         84  69  84  70 /  40  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     78  61  78  63 /  60  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  66  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
COLUMBUS        89  72  87  72 /  40  30  50  50
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  50  40
MACON           87  69  85  71 /  40  40  50  50
ROME            85  68  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  86  68  86  68 /  40  40  50  50
VIDALIA         92  73  90  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN CONUS DURING
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
WEST OF THE STATE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR STILL IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT SHOULD
ERODE SOME TODAY. TEMPS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY YESTERDAY A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-20. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS AND
WX GRIDS FOR TODAY FOR SIMILAR REASONS. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS BUT COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS BECOME STRONG. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A
THREAT THOUGH OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING EXTREME PW
COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE ON 00Z FFC
SOUNDING. MODEL AND WPC GUIDANCE QPF ALSO KEEPING HIGHER AMOUNTS
OUTSIDE OF CWA.

SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ABOUT THE SAME OR A LITTLE HIGHER SATURDAY.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE TSRA THAN
PREV DAYS ON SAT BUT LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING AGAIN WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON MORNING SHRA AND CLOUDS. MODIFIED BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND
FOR TEMPS BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP AREAS.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE WELL EAST OF THE STATE BASED ON TPC AND MODEL GUIDANCE.


SNELSON

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY. GFS AND EUROPEAN
BEGIN TO DIFFER THURSDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE EUROPEAN WANTING MORE OF A WEAK RIDGE.

HIGHEST POPS FAVORING CENTRAL GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE INTO TUESDAY. POPS THEN FAVORING MORE TOWARD CLIMO
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIP WILL STILL HAVE A DIURNAL TREND
BUT MAY NOT NECESSARILY END AT NIGHT.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FAVORING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES FAVORING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU 15Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KAHN AND ATL METRO AIRPORTS AS COOL ENE SFC WINDS BRING RAIN
COOLED AND MOIST AIR INTO THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE SOME TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN MIDDLE GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA ONLY AT KCSG AND KMCN. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PROBS OF SHRA OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  84  69 /  50  40  50  50
ATLANTA         84  69  84  70 /  40  40  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     78  61  78  63 /  60  40  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  66  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
COLUMBUS        89  72  87  72 /  40  30  50  50
GAINESVILLE     79  68  81  69 /  50  40  50  40
MACON           87  69  85  71 /  40  40  50  50
ROME            85  68  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  86  68  86  68 /  40  40  50  50
VIDALIA         92  73  90  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010627 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RAIN AREAS SLOWLY SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE
THAN YESTERDAY. COOL START TO DAY BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS GET TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH GA. MIDDLE GA SHOULD
BE WARMER AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS. MORE ON LATER
PERIODS IN A BIT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HYBRID WEDGE AND MOISTURE OVERRUN IS ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
CHANCE AND SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA WHICH IS
NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE WRF-
NMM HAS DONE BEST. WEDGE AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIKELY
ALLOWED FOR EVAP COOLING FROM PRECIP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN
OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES IN NORTH GA. DID NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS
WHAT WAS TRENDING SINCE SOME LOCATIONS MAY HOVER WITH LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME
SPOTS NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND FARTHER NORTH RECEIVED
NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE FROM SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHOWERS EARLIER SO
THESE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE KEPT CLOSE EYE ON WITH FURTHER PRECIP
FOR ANY EXACERBATED THREATS TO FLOODING. CANNOT JUSTIFY OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU 15Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KAHN AND ATL METRO AIRPORTS AS COOL ENE SFC WINDS BRING RAIN
COOLED AND MOIST AIR INTO THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE SOME TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN MIDDLE GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA ONLY AT KCSG AND KMCN. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PROBS OF SHRA OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  68  85  68 /  60  50  60  50
ATLANTA         82  69  83  69 /  50  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  77  61 /  70  50  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    82  68  84  67 /  50  40  60  50
COLUMBUS        88  71  87  71 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  81  67 /  70  50  60  50
MACON           86  70  86  70 /  40  40  50  40
ROME            83  68  83  67 /  50  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  68  85  68 /  50  40  50  40
VIDALIA         90  73  91  72 /  50  30  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010627 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RAIN AREAS SLOWLY SHRINKING IN
COVERAGE. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE
THAN YESTERDAY. COOL START TO DAY BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD
SEE TEMPS GET TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH GA. MIDDLE GA SHOULD
BE WARMER AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS. MORE ON LATER
PERIODS IN A BIT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HYBRID WEDGE AND MOISTURE OVERRUN IS ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
CHANCE AND SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA WHICH IS
NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE WRF-
NMM HAS DONE BEST. WEDGE AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIKELY
ALLOWED FOR EVAP COOLING FROM PRECIP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN
OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES IN NORTH GA. DID NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS
WHAT WAS TRENDING SINCE SOME LOCATIONS MAY HOVER WITH LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME
SPOTS NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND FARTHER NORTH RECEIVED
NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE FROM SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHOWERS EARLIER SO
THESE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE KEPT CLOSE EYE ON WITH FURTHER PRECIP
FOR ANY EXACERBATED THREATS TO FLOODING. CANNOT JUSTIFY OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU 15Z THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KAHN AND ATL METRO AIRPORTS AS COOL ENE SFC WINDS BRING RAIN
COOLED AND MOIST AIR INTO THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE SOME TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN MIDDLE GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
HAVE KEPT PROB30 FOR TSRA ONLY AT KCSG AND KMCN. HAVE BACKED OFF
ON PROBS OF SHRA OVER THE AREA BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS LIKELY
AFTER 08Z SAT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  68  85  68 /  60  50  60  50
ATLANTA         82  69  83  69 /  50  40  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     75  64  77  61 /  70  50  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    82  68  84  67 /  50  40  60  50
COLUMBUS        88  71  87  71 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     78  68  81  67 /  70  50  60  50
MACON           86  70  86  70 /  40  40  50  40
ROME            83  68  83  67 /  50  40  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  84  68  85  68 /  50  40  50  40
VIDALIA         90  73  91  72 /  50  30  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
918 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HYBRID WEDGE AND MOISTURE OVERRUN IS ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
CHANCE AND SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA WHICH IS
NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE WRF-
NMM HAS DONE BEST. WEDGE AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIKELY
ALLOWED FOR EVAP COOLING FROM PRECIP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN
OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES IN NORTH GA. DID NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS
WHAT WAS TRENDING SINCE SOME LOCATIONS MAY HOVER WITH LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME
SPOTS NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND FARTHER NORTH RECEIVED
NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE FROM SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHOWERS EARLIER SO
THESE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE KEPT CLOSE EYE ON WITH FURTHER PRECIP
FOR ANY EXACERBATED THREATS TO FLOODING. CANNOT JUSTIFY OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THEN
CHANCES PICK BACK UP AFTER 06-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AFTER 18Z. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB30 WITH LATER
UPDATES. WINDS GENERALLY ENE UNDER 10 KTS. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         65  82  69  83 /  50  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    63  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     63  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           68  86  70  86 /  40  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  60  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  65  84  68  85 /  50  50  40  50
VIDALIA         70  90  73  91 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....01/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 010118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
918 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HYBRID WEDGE AND MOISTURE OVERRUN IS ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
CHANCE AND SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA WHICH IS
NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE WRF-
NMM HAS DONE BEST. WEDGE AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIKELY
ALLOWED FOR EVAP COOLING FROM PRECIP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN
OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES IN NORTH GA. DID NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS
WHAT WAS TRENDING SINCE SOME LOCATIONS MAY HOVER WITH LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME
SPOTS NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND FARTHER NORTH RECEIVED
NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE FROM SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHOWERS EARLIER SO
THESE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE KEPT CLOSE EYE ON WITH FURTHER PRECIP
FOR ANY EXACERBATED THREATS TO FLOODING. CANNOT JUSTIFY OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THEN
CHANCES PICK BACK UP AFTER 06-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AFTER 18Z. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB30 WITH LATER
UPDATES. WINDS GENERALLY ENE UNDER 10 KTS. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         65  82  69  83 /  50  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    63  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     63  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           68  86  70  86 /  40  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  60  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  65  84  68  85 /  50  50  40  50
VIDALIA         70  90  73  91 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....01/41
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010011
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THEN
CHANCES PICK BACK UP AFTER 06-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AFTER 18Z. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB30 WITH LATER
UPDATES. WINDS GENERALLY ENE UNDER 10 KTS. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  82  69  83 /  50  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     66  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           70  86  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  50  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  84  68  85 /  40  50  40  50
VIDALIA         72  90  73  91 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...01/41
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 010011
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THEN
CHANCES PICK BACK UP AFTER 06-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AFTER 18Z. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB30 WITH LATER
UPDATES. WINDS GENERALLY ENE UNDER 10 KTS. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  82  69  83 /  50  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     66  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           70  86  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  50  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  84  68  85 /  40  50  40  50
VIDALIA         72  90  73  91 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...01/41
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 311956
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.


31


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

.PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO IFR BY 08Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z OR AFTER.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 -RA FOR THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE ENE-NE SIDE
AT 7KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  82  69  83 /  40  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  82  68  84 /  50  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     66  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           70  86  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  50  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  84  68  85 /  40  50  40  50
VIDALIA         72  90  73  91 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 311956
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.


31


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

.PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO IFR BY 08Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z OR AFTER.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 -RA FOR THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE ENE-NE SIDE
AT 7KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         68  82  69  83 /  40  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    66  82  68  84 /  50  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     66  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           70  86  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  50  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  68  84  68  85 /  40  50  40  50
VIDALIA         72  90  73  91 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 311852
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
NOTHING MUCH TO ADD TO NEAR TERM PORTION OF FCST. A LITTLE MORE
SHRA OVER SE PART OF CWA THAN EXPECTED. ALREADY ADJUSTED FCST
EARLIER BUT WILL DO ONE MORE TWEAK IN NEXT FEW MINUTES. 06Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SURPRISES COMPARED TO PREV RUNS.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO IFR BY 08Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z OR AFTER.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 -RA FOR THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE ENE-NE SIDE
AT 7KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 311852
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
NOTHING MUCH TO ADD TO NEAR TERM PORTION OF FCST. A LITTLE MORE
SHRA OVER SE PART OF CWA THAN EXPECTED. ALREADY ADJUSTED FCST
EARLIER BUT WILL DO ONE MORE TWEAK IN NEXT FEW MINUTES. 06Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SURPRISES COMPARED TO PREV RUNS.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO IFR BY 08Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z OR AFTER.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED PROB30 -RA FOR THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME. PREVAILING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE ENE-NE SIDE
AT 7KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 311150 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NOTHING MUCH TO ADD TO NEAR TERM PORTION OF FCST. A LITTLE MORE
SHRA OVER SE PART OF CWA THAN EXPECTED. ALREADY ADJUSTED FCST
EARLIER BUT WILL DO ONE MORE TWEAK IN NEXT FEW MINUTES. 06Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SURPRISES COMPARED TO PREV RUNS.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z FRI AT WHICH POINT IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AIRPORTS. STILL
BELIEVE SHOWERS THRU 03Z TODAY WILL BE ISOLD AND BELOW THRESHOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BETTER CHC FOR
SHRA WILL ALSO BE AFTER 06Z. HAVE ADDED PROB30 -RA TO NORTH GA
AIRPORTS AFTER 09Z. NO INDICATION THAT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU
FCST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KFFC 311150 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NOTHING MUCH TO ADD TO NEAR TERM PORTION OF FCST. A LITTLE MORE
SHRA OVER SE PART OF CWA THAN EXPECTED. ALREADY ADJUSTED FCST
EARLIER BUT WILL DO ONE MORE TWEAK IN NEXT FEW MINUTES. 06Z MODEL
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SURPRISES COMPARED TO PREV RUNS.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z FRI AT WHICH POINT IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL GA AIRPORTS. STILL
BELIEVE SHOWERS THRU 03Z TODAY WILL BE ISOLD AND BELOW THRESHOLD TO
INCLUDE IN FCST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BETTER CHC FOR
SHRA WILL ALSO BE AFTER 06Z. HAVE ADDED PROB30 -RA TO NORTH GA
AIRPORTS AFTER 09Z. NO INDICATION THAT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU
FCST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 09Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 310805
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRI BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF AREA AFTER 09Z. EAST COMPONENT WINDS EXPECTED
THRU THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLD BUT SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. NOT SURE IF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN AS BULK OF
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN FCST AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 06Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON






000
FXUS62 KFFC 310805
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SHORT TERM PERIOD IS COVERAGE OF SHRA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHC OF CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...
MED RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING WARM ADVECTION
EVENT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER NORTH GA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED IN LOW LEVELS AS PRECIP
INITIALLY FALLS INTO DRY LAYER. COULD SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTH GA. SOUTH OF I-20...COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
SLT CHC/CHC CATEGORIES.

PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH UPPER TROUGH
NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE A LITTLE FRI/FRI NIGHT...MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA THAN
THURS...STILL WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SO INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR
VIGOROUS OR SEVERE CONVECTION. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT HOWEVER.

USED BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...THOUGH TEMPS MAY BE
A TOUCH COOLER THAN THIS IF PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL
BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS
PUTS GA IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL
KEEP A DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN
GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN
OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRI BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF AREA AFTER 09Z. EAST COMPONENT WINDS EXPECTED
THRU THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLD BUT SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. NOT SURE IF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN AS BULK OF
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN FCST AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 06Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  68 /  40  60  70  50
ATLANTA         84  68  81  69 /  20  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  74  62 /  40  70  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    83  67  81  67 /  30  60  60  40
COLUMBUS        87  70  87  72 /  20  20  50  30
GAINESVILLE     79  67  77  67 /  40  70  70  50
MACON           86  70  85  70 /  30  30  60  40
ROME            83  67  81  68 /  30  60  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  83  68 /  20  40  60  40
VIDALIA         90  72  90  74 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 310616 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 00Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO INDICATE
POPS APPROACHING LIKELY WITH SOME GUIDANCE NEAR CATEGORICAL FOR
NORTH GA THURS NIGHT AFTER 10PM AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASING POPS THIS FCST.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS CIRRUS DECK IS ADVECTING IN FROM NW. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS AND FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRI BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF AREA AFTER 09Z. EAST COMPONENT WINDS EXPECTED
THRU THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLD BUT SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. NOT SURE IF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN AS BULK OF
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN FCST AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 06Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  67 /  20  30  50  40
ATLANTA         83  67  81  67 /  20  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     77  63  74  61 /  30  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    83  66  81  66 /  20  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        88  71  86  70 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     80  66  77  66 /  30  40  50  40
MACON           88  70  86  69 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            84  67  81  66 /  20  30  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  82  67 /  20  30  50  30
VIDALIA         90  73  89  72 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON








000
FXUS62 KFFC 310616 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 00Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO INDICATE
POPS APPROACHING LIKELY WITH SOME GUIDANCE NEAR CATEGORICAL FOR
NORTH GA THURS NIGHT AFTER 10PM AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASING POPS THIS FCST.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS CIRRUS DECK IS ADVECTING IN FROM NW. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS AND FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRI BUT EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO IMPACT MUCH OF AREA AFTER 09Z. EAST COMPONENT WINDS EXPECTED
THRU THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLD BUT SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. NOT SURE IF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ATL METRO AIRPORTS AND KAHN AS BULK OF
OVERNIGHT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN FCST AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA LIKELIHOOD AFTER 06Z FRI.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  68  81  67 /  20  30  50  40
ATLANTA         83  67  81  67 /  20  30  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     77  63  74  61 /  30  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    83  66  81  66 /  20  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        88  71  86  70 /  20  20  40  30
GAINESVILLE     80  66  77  66 /  30  40  50  40
MACON           88  70  86  69 /  20  20  40  30
ROME            84  67  81  66 /  20  30  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  85  68  82  67 /  20  30  50  30
VIDALIA         90  73  89  72 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON







000
FXUS62 KFFC 310119
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS CIRRUS DECK IS ADVECTING IN FROM NW. OTHERWISE MINOR
TWEAKS TO DEWPOINTS AND FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH TRENDING CLOSE TO
MVFR NEAR END OF PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY SOME CIRRUS
BUILDING INTO TONIGHT THEN CU FIELD DEVELOPING INTO NEAR BKN 4-5
KFT AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SCT TO BKN NEAR 2 KFT AFTER
03-06Z FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO ENE UNDER 10 KTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ON INCREASE BEYOND
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY LATE THURSDAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  84  68  81 /  10  20  30  50
ATLANTA         67  83  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  77  63  74 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  66  81 /   5  20  30  50
COLUMBUS        68  88  71  86 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     66  80  66  77 /  10  30  40  50
MACON           67  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
ROME            61  84  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  68  82 /   5  20  30  50
VIDALIA         71  90  73  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM...SNELSON/11
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 302348
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH TRENDING CLOSE TO
MVFR NEAR END OF PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY SOME CIRRUS
BUILDING INTO TONIGHT THEN CU FIELD DEVELOPING INTO NEAR BKN 4-5
KFT AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SCT TO BKN NEAR 2 KFT AFTER
03-06Z FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO ENE UNDER 10 KTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ON INCREASE BEYOND
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY LATE THURSDAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  84  68  81 /  10  20  30  50
ATLANTA         67  83  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  77  63  74 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  66  81 /   5  20  30  50
COLUMBUS        68  88  71  86 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     66  80  66  77 /  10  30  40  50
MACON           67  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
ROME            61  84  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  68  82 /   5  20  30  50
VIDALIA         71  90  73  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON/11
AVIATION...BAKER







000
FXUS62 KFFC 302348
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH TRENDING CLOSE TO
MVFR NEAR END OF PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY SOME CIRRUS
BUILDING INTO TONIGHT THEN CU FIELD DEVELOPING INTO NEAR BKN 4-5
KFT AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SCT TO BKN NEAR 2 KFT AFTER
03-06Z FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO ENE UNDER 10 KTS AND LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ON INCREASE BEYOND
FORECAST PERIOD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY LATE THURSDAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  84  68  81 /  10  20  30  50
ATLANTA         67  83  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  77  63  74 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  66  81 /   5  20  30  50
COLUMBUS        68  88  71  86 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     66  80  66  77 /  10  30  40  50
MACON           67  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
ROME            61  84  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  68  82 /   5  20  30  50
VIDALIA         71  90  73  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON/11
AVIATION...BAKER






000
FXUS62 KFFC 301947
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATION
FROM ENE TO ESE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE 5-7KT THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND 4-7KT ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCT CU BY MID-LATE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  84  68  81 /  10  20  30  50
ATLANTA         67  83  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  77  63  74 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  66  81 /   5  20  30  50
COLUMBUS        68  88  71  86 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     66  80  66  77 /  10  30  40  50
MACON           67  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
ROME            61  84  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  68  82 /   5  20  30  50
VIDALIA         71  90  73  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 301947
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF A TRANSITIONING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE WEAKENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL PLACE THE REGION IN MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IMPACT THE STATE. INCREASING CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY /BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE AND SPREADING WESTWARD/ AND THEN CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM...BRINGING A CLOSE TO THE NICE WEATHER SEEN THE
LAST FEW DAYS.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE ANY BROKEN RECORDS WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING THE SOUTHEAST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THINKING FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO WARM THEM A
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

11

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATION
FROM ENE TO ESE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE 5-7KT THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND 4-7KT ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCT CU BY MID-LATE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  84  68  81 /  10  20  30  50
ATLANTA         67  83  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  77  63  74 /  10  30  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    62  83  66  81 /   5  20  30  50
COLUMBUS        68  88  71  86 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     66  80  66  77 /  10  30  40  50
MACON           67  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  40
ROME            61  84  67  81 /   5  20  30  50
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  68  82 /   5  20  30  50
VIDALIA         71  90  73  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 301925
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OF DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THU AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A COOL/DRY PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WAVE IN THE MAIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION THU. THE MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF GA THOUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE STATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT BUT THEY ARE STILL VERY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATION FROM ENE TO ESE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE 5-7KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN 5 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT...AND 4-7KT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SCT CU BY MID-LATE
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  66  84  68 /   0  10  20  30
ATLANTA         84  67  83  67 /   0   5  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  58  77  63 /   0  10  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    85  62  83  66 /   0   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        87  68  88  71 /   0   5  20  20
GAINESVILLE     83  66  80  66 /   0  10  30  40
MACON           89  67  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
ROME            84  61  84  67 /   0   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  86  63  85  68 /   0   5  20  30
VIDALIA         92  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 301925
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OF DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THU AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A COOL/DRY PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WAVE IN THE MAIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION THU. THE MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF GA THOUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE STATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT BUT THEY ARE STILL VERY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE...WITH SOME FLUCTUATION FROM ENE TO ESE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE 5-7KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN 5 KT OR
LESS OVERNIGHT...AND 4-7KT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SCT CU BY MID-LATE
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  66  84  68 /   0  10  20  30
ATLANTA         84  67  83  67 /   0   5  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     79  58  77  63 /   0  10  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    85  62  83  66 /   0   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        87  68  88  71 /   0   5  20  20
GAINESVILLE     83  66  80  66 /   0  10  30  40
MACON           89  67  88  70 /   0  10  20  20
ROME            84  61  84  67 /   0   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  86  63  85  68 /   0   5  20  30
VIDALIA         92  71  90  73 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 301140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OF DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THU AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A COOL/DRY PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WAVE IN THE MAIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION THU. THE MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF GA THOUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE STATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT BUT THEY ARE STILL VERY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
IS THE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS EXPECTED TO START OUT OF THE NW THEN
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH FROM THE NW TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NE THEN CONTINUE TURNING TO THE EAST
AFTER 00Z THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  87  67 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         84  68  85  68 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  58  79  62 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    85  62  86  66 /   0   5  10  20
COLUMBUS        87  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
GAINESVILLE     83  66  82  67 /   0   5  20  30
MACON           89  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
ROME            84  62  84  66 /   0   5  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  86  64  86  67 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         92  71  92  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 300806
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OF DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THU AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A COOL/DRY PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WAVE IN THE MAIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION THU. THE MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF GA THOUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE STATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT BUT THEY ARE STILL VERY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS EXPECTED
TO START OUT OF THE NW THEN WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH FROM THE NW TO
THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NE THEN
CONTINUE TURNING TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  87  67 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         84  68  85  68 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  58  79  62 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    85  62  86  66 /   0   5  10  30
COLUMBUS        87  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
GAINESVILLE     83  66  82  67 /   0   5  20  30
MACON           89  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
ROME            84  62  84  66 /   0   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  86  64  86  67 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         92  71  92  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...01







000
FXUS62 KFFC 300806
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM STARTS OF DRY WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING THU AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A COOL/DRY PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WAVE IN THE MAIN NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES SE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TODAY AND BEGINS PUSHING MOISTURE BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION THU. THE MAIN WAVE STAYS WEST OF GA THOUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE STATE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
INSTABILITIES DO INCREASE A BIT BUT THEY ARE STILL VERY WEAK FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

01


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABNORMALLY PLEASANT LATE JULY WEATHER TO COME TO AN END AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS ALLUDED ABOVE...FRONT WILL WASH OUT LATE THURSDAY AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. NOT SEEING
ANY SIGN OF PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL.
BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WARM
ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK...OVERALL PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA...SOME STRONG DURING PEAK IN
INSTABILITY...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND MOST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE THRU TUES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE...WELL EAST OF
US COAST. IN SPITE OF RECENT FRONTS LAST 30 DAYS...HAVE SIDED WITH
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MOS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION. WINDS EXPECTED
TO START OUT OF THE NW THEN WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH FROM THE NW TO
THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NE THEN
CONTINUE TURNING TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  87  67 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         84  68  85  68 /   0   5  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  58  79  62 /   0   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    85  62  86  66 /   0   5  10  30
COLUMBUS        87  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
GAINESVILLE     83  66  82  67 /   0   5  20  30
MACON           89  67  88  70 /   0   5  10  20
ROME            84  62  84  66 /   0   5  10  30
PEACHTREE CITY  86  64  86  67 /   0   5  10  20
VIDALIA         92  71  92  72 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 300632
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
232 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY TRENDS.

11

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION.
WINDS EXPECTED TO START OUT OF THE NW THEN WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH
FROM THE NW TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
TO THE NE THEN CONTINUE TURNING TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z THU. WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  66  86  68 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         84  67  84  68 /   0   5  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  61  78  62 /   0   5  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  61  84  67 /   0   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        87  67  89  70 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     83  66  81  67 /   0   5  20  40
MACON           88  66  88  69 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            85  62  84  67 /   0   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  85  68 /   0   5  20  30
VIDALIA         91  70  92  71 /   0   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...01







000
FXUS62 KFFC 300632
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
232 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY TRENDS.

11

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE WIND DIRECTION.
WINDS EXPECTED TO START OUT OF THE NW THEN WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH
FROM THE NW TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
TO THE NE THEN CONTINUE TURNING TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z THU. WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  66  86  68 /   0   5  20  30
ATLANTA         84  67  84  68 /   0   5  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  61  78  62 /   0   5  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    85  61  84  67 /   0   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        87  67  89  70 /   0   5  10  10
GAINESVILLE     83  66  81  67 /   0   5  20  40
MACON           88  66  88  69 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            85  62  84  67 /   0   5  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  85  61  85  68 /   0   5  20  30
VIDALIA         91  70  92  71 /   0   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...01






000
FXUS62 KFFC 300157 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
957 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY TRENDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 757 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS THROUGH TOMORROW IS THE WIND
DIRECTION. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SWITCH TO
THE NE TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF DIRECTION BETWEEN THE NE AND THE NW AT
ATL. HAVE SHOWN A SWITCH TO THE NW FOR THE AFTERNOON AT ATL...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  66  86 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         62  84  67  84 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  61  78 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        64  87  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     62  83  66  81 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           62  88  66  88 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            57  85  62  84 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  57  85  61  85 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         68  91  70  92 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11






000
FXUS62 KFFC 300157 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
957 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR
TERM HOURLY TRENDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 757 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS THROUGH TOMORROW IS THE WIND
DIRECTION. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SWITCH TO
THE NE TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF DIRECTION BETWEEN THE NE AND THE NW AT
ATL. HAVE SHOWN A SWITCH TO THE NW FOR THE AFTERNOON AT ATL...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  66  86 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         62  84  67  84 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  61  78 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        64  87  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     62  83  66  81 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           62  88  66  88 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            57  85  62  84 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  57  85  61  85 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         68  91  70  92 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 292357 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS THROUGH TOMORROW IS THE WIND
DIRECTION. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SWITCH TO
THE NE TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF DIRECTION BETWEEN THE NE AND THE NW AT
ATL. HAVE SHOWN A SWITCH TO THE NW FOR THE AFTERNOON AT ATL...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  66  86 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         62  84  67  84 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  61  78 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        64  87  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     62  83  66  81 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           62  88  66  88 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            57  85  62  84 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  57  85  61  85 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         68  91  70  92 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11







000
FXUS62 KFFC 291954
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

...SHORT TERM...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.


31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41


.PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958





&&




AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AT 8-10KT
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO
4-7KT...THEN BECOME NE AT 6-8KT BETWEEN 13-15Z. BY 18Z WINDS COULD
SWITCH BACK TO THE NNE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  66  86 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         62  84  67  84 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  61  78 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        64  87  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     62  83  66  81 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           62  88  66  88 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            57  85  62  84 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  57  85  61  85 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         68  91  70  92 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






000
FXUS62 KFFC 291954
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

...SHORT TERM...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATE IN A
COOL/DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH NEAR RECORD OR RECORD TEMPERATURES FORECAST. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE WEEK...AND WITH APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...TRANSITIONING
THE STATE INTO AN OVERALL WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND.


31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...FILLING SOME TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41


.PREVIOUS...

/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958





&&




AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AT 8-10KT
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO
4-7KT...THEN BECOME NE AT 6-8KT BETWEEN 13-15Z. BY 18Z WINDS COULD
SWITCH BACK TO THE NNE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  87  66  86 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         62  84  67  84 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  61  78 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  85  61  84 /   0   0   5  20
COLUMBUS        64  87  67  89 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     62  83  66  81 /   0   0   5  20
MACON           62  88  66  88 /   0   0   5  20
ROME            57  85  62  84 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  57  85  61  85 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         68  91  70  92 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 291654
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1254 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAINTAIN A COOL/DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAIN FREE FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
STORY BEING THE MUCH ANTICIPATED 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE... THE COOLER AIR MASS SPREADING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REALLY BE FELT
TONIGHT... AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND THREATEN
RECORD LOWS FOR ALL FOUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER... THE COOL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
ENJOY! AUGUST IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AT 8-10KT
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO
4-7KT...THEN BECOME NE AT 6-8KT BETWEEN 13-15Z. BY 18Z WINDS COULD
SWITCH BACK TO THE NNE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  61  87  66 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         84  62  84  67 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     77  53  80  61 /   5   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    83  56  85  61 /   5   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        88  64  87  67 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     83  62  83  66 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           89  62  88  66 /   5   0   0   5
ROME            84  57  85  62 /   5   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  85  57  85  61 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         92  68  91  70 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31







000
FXUS62 KFFC 291654
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1254 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAINTAIN A COOL/DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAIN FREE FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
STORY BEING THE MUCH ANTICIPATED 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE... THE COOLER AIR MASS SPREADING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
FOR MOST OF NORTH GA... AND MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REALLY BE FELT
TONIGHT... AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND THREATEN
RECORD LOWS FOR ALL FOUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER... THE COOL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
ENJOY! AUGUST IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM AND SETTLES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS TROUGH PULLS IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THU. BY THU MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
A FEW WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN BY
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS BEGIN TO
REBOUND THU AND LOOK TO GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND.

01

CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1952     69 1984     76 1993     60 1911
                                        1981
   KATL     103 1952     73 1984     77 1993     63 1977
                            1926        1986
                                        1896
   KCSG     101 1952     74 1984     78 2010     65 1994
   KMCN     104 1986     74 1984     78 1986     63 1897
                1952

RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1999     69 1984     76 2010     60 1925
                1915
   KATL      98 1986     68 1984     78 1896     61 1936
                1980
   KCSG     102 2010     76 1984     79 2010     65 1957
                1986
   KMCN     103 1986     74 1984     76 2010     62 1920
                                        2008
                                        1958


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AT 8-10KT
WITH OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO
4-7KT...THEN BECOME NE AT 6-8KT BETWEEN 13-15Z. BY 18Z WINDS COULD
SWITCH BACK TO THE NNE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  61  87  66 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         84  62  84  67 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     77  53  80  61 /   5   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    83  56  85  61 /   5   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        88  64  87  67 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     83  62  83  66 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           89  62  88  66 /   5   0   0   5
ROME            84  57  85  62 /   5   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  85  57  85  61 /   5   0   0   5
VIDALIA         92  68  91  70 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31






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