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000
FXUS62 KFFC 072333 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INTO FAR NW GA TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.

ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.


BAKER


LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z MON.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR MID LEVEL CIGS BY 18Z MON ALONG
THE A CHANCE OF SPOTTY -SHRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR MID LEVEL CIGS
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUE WHEN MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK IN ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-
7KTS WILL BACK MORE WEST BY 06-09Z MON... AND REMAIN MAINLY WESTERLY
ON MON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS BY 18Z WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON VFR CIG.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  39 /   5  40  40  10
ATLANTA         37  50  29  36 /  10  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     31  43  23  30 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    34  49  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        35  54  31  42 /   5  20  20   5
GAINESVILLE     36  49  27  34 /  10  50  50  20
MACON           34  56  30  43 /   5  30  30   5
ROME            34  48  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  34  51  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         36  58  33  46 /   0  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 072333 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INTO FAR NW GA TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.

ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.


BAKER


LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z MON.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR MID LEVEL CIGS BY 18Z MON ALONG
THE A CHANCE OF SPOTTY -SHRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR MID LEVEL CIGS
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUE WHEN MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK IN ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-
7KTS WILL BACK MORE WEST BY 06-09Z MON... AND REMAIN MAINLY WESTERLY
ON MON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS BY 18Z WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON VFR CIG.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  39 /   5  40  40  10
ATLANTA         37  50  29  36 /  10  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     31  43  23  30 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    34  49  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        35  54  31  42 /   5  20  20   5
GAINESVILLE     36  49  27  34 /  10  50  50  20
MACON           34  56  30  43 /   5  30  30   5
ROME            34  48  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  34  51  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         36  58  33  46 /   0  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 072039
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.

ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.


BAKER


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS 10-12 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS BUILDING IN AFTER 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. CIGS SHOULD
HOLD IN 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SCATTERING. WINDS ALSO ON INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO BE
MORE WEST AT 11-14 KTS GUSTING 18-20 KTS. MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF KATL AND NEARBY TAF SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE -SHRA TO -SN TRANSITION THOUGH CONFIDENCE
LACKING TOO MUCH ON TIMING TO GO OTHER THAN PROB30 -SHRA AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON CIG SCATTERING.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  39 /   5  40  40  10
ATLANTA         37  50  29  36 /  10  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     31  43  23  30 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    34  49  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        35  54  31  42 /   5  20  20   5
GAINESVILLE     36  49  27  34 /  10  50  50  20
MACON           34  56  30  43 /   5  30  30   5
ROME            34  48  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  34  51  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         36  58  33  46 /   0  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER




000
FXUS62 KFFC 072039
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.

ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.


BAKER


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS 10-12 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS BUILDING IN AFTER 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. CIGS SHOULD
HOLD IN 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SCATTERING. WINDS ALSO ON INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO BE
MORE WEST AT 11-14 KTS GUSTING 18-20 KTS. MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF KATL AND NEARBY TAF SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE -SHRA TO -SN TRANSITION THOUGH CONFIDENCE
LACKING TOO MUCH ON TIMING TO GO OTHER THAN PROB30 -SHRA AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON CIG SCATTERING.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  39 /   5  40  40  10
ATLANTA         37  50  29  36 /  10  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     31  43  23  30 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    34  49  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        35  54  31  42 /   5  20  20   5
GAINESVILLE     36  49  27  34 /  10  50  50  20
MACON           34  56  30  43 /   5  30  30   5
ROME            34  48  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  34  51  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         36  58  33  46 /   0  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 072039
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.

ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.


BAKER


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS 10-12 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS BUILDING IN AFTER 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. CIGS SHOULD
HOLD IN 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SCATTERING. WINDS ALSO ON INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO BE
MORE WEST AT 11-14 KTS GUSTING 18-20 KTS. MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF KATL AND NEARBY TAF SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE -SHRA TO -SN TRANSITION THOUGH CONFIDENCE
LACKING TOO MUCH ON TIMING TO GO OTHER THAN PROB30 -SHRA AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON CIG SCATTERING.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  39 /   5  40  40  10
ATLANTA         37  50  29  36 /  10  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     31  43  23  30 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    34  49  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        35  54  31  42 /   5  20  20   5
GAINESVILLE     36  49  27  34 /  10  50  50  20
MACON           34  56  30  43 /   5  30  30   5
ROME            34  48  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  34  51  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         36  58  33  46 /   0  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 071747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME CIRRUS FLIRTING IN
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS 10-12 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS BUILDING IN AFTER 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. CIGS SHOULD
HOLD IN 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SCATTERING. WINDS ALSO ON INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO BE
MORE WEST AT 11-14 KTS GUSTING 18-20 KTS. MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF KATL AND NEARBY TAF SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE -SHRA TO -SN TRANSITION THOUGH CONFIDENCE
LACKING TOO MUCH ON TIMING TO GO OTHER THAN PROB30 -SHRA AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON CIG SCATTERING.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 071747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME CIRRUS FLIRTING IN
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS 10-12 KTS GUSTING 14-18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING 5-7 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS BUILDING IN AFTER 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. CIGS SHOULD
HOLD IN 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SCATTERING. WINDS ALSO ON INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO BE
MORE WEST AT 11-14 KTS GUSTING 18-20 KTS. MAIN PRECIP CHANCE
SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF KATL AND NEARBY TAF SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE -SHRA TO -SN TRANSITION THOUGH CONFIDENCE
LACKING TOO MUCH ON TIMING TO GO OTHER THAN PROB30 -SHRA AT THE
MOMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON CIG SCATTERING.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





000
FXUS62 KFFC 071627
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1127 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME CIRRUS FLIRTING IN
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST 5-8KT BY 00Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 071627
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1127 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME CIRRUS FLIRTING IN
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST 5-8KT BY 00Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 071627
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1127 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME CIRRUS FLIRTING IN
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST 5-8KT BY 00Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 071120 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.


NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST 5-8KT BY 00Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20




000
FXUS62 KFFC 071120 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.


NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST 5-8KT BY 00Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 070821
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.


NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-
12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20





000
FXUS62 KFFC 070543 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-
12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 070543 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-
12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 070543 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-
12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 062336 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
CURRENT NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO NNW BY AROUND 03Z
TONIGHT... THEN SHOULD REMAIN NW ON SUN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS BY LATE SUN MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK MORE WEST AND DIMINISH BY SUN EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 062336 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
CURRENT NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO NNW BY AROUND 03Z
TONIGHT... THEN SHOULD REMAIN NW ON SUN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS BY LATE SUN MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK MORE WEST AND DIMINISH BY SUN EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 062336 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS ALL ELEMENTS
LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR... WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY PULLING OFF TO THE
EAST FOR MOST OF NORTH GA WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
30S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41

&&

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
CURRENT NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO NNW BY AROUND 03Z
TONIGHT... THEN SHOULD REMAIN NW ON SUN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-12KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS BY LATE SUN MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK MORE WEST AND DIMINISH BY SUN EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 062019
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016


...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NOW WITH EXTENT OF POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GIVEN SOME RECENT INCONSISTENCY
IN GUIDANCE. OVERALL DEPTH OF SATURATION AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE THOUGH STILL INDICATE THE MAIN TRANSITION OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH
HAVE LARGELY KEPT A PERSISTENCE FCST FOR NOW TO WAIT FOR MORE
RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  56  35  49 /   0   5   5  30
ATLANTA         32  55  37  48 /   5   5   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     27  50  31  41 /   0   5  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    29  55  34  47 /   0   5  10  40
COLUMBUS        32  57  37  52 /   5   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     32  53  35  46 /   0   5  10  40
MACON           32  57  34  54 /  10   5   5  20
ROME            29  56  34  46 /   0   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  29  55  34  49 /   5   5   5  30
VIDALIA         36  55  36  58 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061752
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1250 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KFFC 061544
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 061131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  30  56  36 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         52  32  54  38 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     48  27  51  32 /   0   0   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    52  29  54  36 /   0   0   5  10
COLUMBUS        55  32  56  37 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     50  32  53  36 /   0   0   5  10
MACON           54  31  56  36 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            52  29  55  35 /   0   0   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  29  55  36 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  55  38 /  20  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060916
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AT 500MB...AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM IS A PRETTY BIG OUTLIER. THE NAM
IS WETTER AND HAS ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISCARDED THE NAM SOLUTION...AND TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DEEPER LAYER OF WARMER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE THAN THE NAM...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE PTYPE TO BE A RASN MIX. A BIG HOWEVER...THE
POPS ARE GOING TO BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE BUMPED
VALUES UP A BIT IN THE FAR EASTERN CWFA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
VS THE BLEND NUMBERS.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS WITH THIS
CYCLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD START AND A MODERATING SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINTRY
WEATHER STILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM EARLY MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS MOSTLY RAIN EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLDER AIR. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM ONSET. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH
THE EVENING...COLD AIRMASS COINCIDES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MAINLY COLD
ADVECTION/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES BY DAYTIME TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT LIMITING OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA NORTHWARD WITH 1-
2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH THROUGH WEST FACING
SLOPES. HIGHEST RIDGETOPS COULD SEE HIGHER TOTALS. MOISTURE BECOMES
TOO SCARCE FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING BY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DE-
AMPLIFIES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

20


&&

.
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  31  55  35 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         50  32  54  37 /   5   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     47  27  49  31 /   5   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    50  29  53  35 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        53  33  56  37 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  32  52  35 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           53  31  56  35 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            50  29  54  35 /   5   5   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  51  29  54  34 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  56  37 /  10  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT... RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS... ALL OF WHICH... RESULTS IN
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. /39

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  31  55  35 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         50  32  54  37 /   5   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     47  27  49  31 /   5   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    50  29  53  35 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        53  33  56  37 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  32  52  35 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           53  31  56  35 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            50  29  54  35 /   5   5   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  51  29  54  34 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  56  37 /  10  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KFFC 060540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT... RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS... ALL OF WHICH... RESULTS IN
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. /39

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  31  55  35 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         50  32  54  37 /   5   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     47  27  49  31 /   5   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    50  29  53  35 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        53  33  56  37 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  32  52  35 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           53  31  56  35 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            50  29  54  35 /   5   5   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  51  29  54  34 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  56  37 /  10  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 060540
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT... RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS... ALL OF WHICH... RESULTS IN
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. /39

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  31  55  35 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         50  32  54  37 /   5   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     47  27  49  31 /   5   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    50  29  53  35 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        53  33  56  37 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  32  52  35 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           53  31  56  35 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            50  29  54  35 /   5   5   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  51  29  54  34 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         53  36  56  37 /  10  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...





000
FXUS62 KFFC 052330 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT... RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS... ALL OF WHICH... RESULTS IN
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

&&

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST. CURRENT NNW WINDS AROUND 7-9KTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THEN
VEER NNE BY 09-10Z SAT MORN. EXPECT A NNE WIND AROUND 5-7KTS TO
PERSIST INTO LATE SAT AFTN BEFORE BACKING NNW BY 21Z SAT AND HOLDING
NNW SAT NIGHT. SPEEDS 6KTS OR LESS SAT EVENING-NIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS... EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  51  31  55 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         31  50  32  54 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  27  49 /   0   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    27  50  29  53 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        31  53  33  56 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     31  49  32  52 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           29  53  31  56 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            27  50  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  27  51  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         33  53  36  56 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39




000
FXUS62 KFFC 052330 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TONIGHT... RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS... ALL OF WHICH... RESULTS IN
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.../ISSUED AT 326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

&&

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... WITH MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST. CURRENT NNW WINDS AROUND 7-9KTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THEN
VEER NNE BY 09-10Z SAT MORN. EXPECT A NNE WIND AROUND 5-7KTS TO
PERSIST INTO LATE SAT AFTN BEFORE BACKING NNW BY 21Z SAT AND HOLDING
NNW SAT NIGHT. SPEEDS 6KTS OR LESS SAT EVENING-NIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS... EXCEPT MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  51  31  55 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         31  50  32  54 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  27  49 /   0   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    27  50  29  53 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        31  53  33  56 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     31  49  32  52 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           29  53  31  56 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            27  50  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  27  51  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         33  53  36  56 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...39





000
FXUS62 KFFC 052026
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016


...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY 40S AND 50S. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE DRY FORECAST IS THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AN UPPER COLD CORE LOW WILL COMBINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE
FRINGES OF THIS PRECIPITATION SO LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THAT AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IT ALL LIQUID
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF
NORTH GA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND DECENT MOISTURE
PROFILES/LAPSE RATES BELOW 600-MB IN PROGGED SOUNDINGS. VERY COLD
THERMAL PROFILES WITH EVEN -10 C ADVECTING IN AT 850-MB BY MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT BE MUCH QUESTION TO P-TYPE GIVEN THIS SETUP AS A
QUICK RAIN TO SNOW SHOWER TRANSITION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF AND
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL INCLUDING SOME
NW FLOW/TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PROVIDE SOME LOCAL QPF
ENHANCEMENT...COULD SEE SOME 0.25 TO NEAR 0.30 LIQUID EQUIV AND
HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 TO 1 ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES
AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL BE TRICKY TO
PINPOINT AMOUNTS AT THE MOMENT AND FORECAST CHANGES ARE PROBABLE
SO PLEASE KEEP MONITORING UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SOME LOW END GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO VARY MOSTLY BETWEEN 350-020 THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z. A SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          30  51  31  55 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         31  50  32  54 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     26  47  27  49 /   0   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    27  50  29  53 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        31  53  33  56 /   0   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     31  49  32  52 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           29  53  31  56 /   0   5   5   5
ROME            27  50  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  27  51  29  54 /   0   5   5   5
VIDALIA         33  53  36  56 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20/BAKER
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SOME LOW END GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO VARY MOSTLY BETWEEN 350-020 THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z. A SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SOME LOW END GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO VARY MOSTLY BETWEEN 350-020 THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z. A SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051747
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1245 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SOME LOW END GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO VARY MOSTLY BETWEEN 350-020 THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z. A SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND SHIFT.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051538
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1039 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WIND SURGE ON
THE DOWNSWING AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO LESSEN BUT STILL
WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED AT ATL
BY 10Z SAT MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WIND SURGE ON
THE DOWNSWING AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO LESSEN BUT STILL
WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED AT ATL
BY 10Z SAT MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 051128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WIND SURGE ON
THE DOWNSWING AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO LESSEN BUT STILL
WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED AT ATL
BY 10Z SAT MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE




000
FXUS62 KFFC 051128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. WIND SURGE ON
THE DOWNSWING AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO LESSEN BUT STILL
WITH LOW END GUSTS THROUGH 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED AT ATL
BY 10Z SAT MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





000
FXUS62 KFFC 050838
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DUAL CORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHICH IS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE QUITE THE
GRADIENT LOCALLY. WE ARE DEFINITELY IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
ZONE WITH OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS A FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30. GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THIS...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY INCREASES REQUIRING SHORT FUSED ADVISORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...COLD ADVECTION PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS AND
DEWPOINTS MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH TEENS COMMON.

HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND LEADS
TO DECREASED WINDS BUT CONTINUED SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH
MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR NORTH GA. POSITION
OF THE HIGH BY TONIGHT POINTS TO A COLD NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWER 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD NORMALLY BRING SOME TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX TO THE
AREA. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT NOTHING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP IN STORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCALES REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT
QUICKLY TAKES A TURN BACK TO WINTER AS DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AS THE
STRONGEST FORCING CORRESPONDS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON
BUT HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW MIXING WE SEE BEFORE MONDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE LIMITED. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL IMPACTS BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK WARM-UP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DE-AMPLIFICATION.

20


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

A VFR FORECAST WITH JUST WINDS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. PRETTY MUCH
AT THE HEIGHT OF THE WIND SURGE CURRENTLY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT
ATL. EXPECT WINDS TO LESSEN BY 10Z BUT STILL WITH GUSTS AND GUSTS
ABATING BY 15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          51  29  52  30 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         49  30  50  32 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     44  24  47  27 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    47  26  50  28 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  30  53  32 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     48  30  49  32 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           53  28  54  30 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            48  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  50  26  51  28 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         54  32  55  35 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DEESE





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